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2023 CCG Scenarios
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quo vadis Online
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Post: #41
RE: 2023 CCG Scenarios
(11-11-2023 07:50 PM)schmolik Wrote:  Despite losing 45-3, Oklahoma State is still in pretty good shape to go to the Big 12 Championship Game if they win out. All they would practically need would be would be for Iowa State to lose to Texas as Oklahoma State has beaten every other two loss Big 12 team (Oklahoma, Kansas State, and West Virginia). Oklahoma State actually wants Texas to not be in a tiebreaker with them since they didn't play UT, they would negate any tiebreaker advantage the Cowboys would have over Oklahoma, Kansas State, and/or West Virginia. Iowa State joining the tiebreaker would be worse as they beat Oklahoma State although in a multiple team tiebreaker there's a chance that head to head won't come into play.

IMO it would be a disaster for the B12 if a team that got shellacked by 40 by an unranked team made the CCG.
(This post was last modified: 11-11-2023 08:41 PM by quo vadis.)
11-11-2023 08:41 PM
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schmolik Online
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RE: 2023 CCG Scenarios
(11-11-2023 08:41 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(11-11-2023 07:50 PM)schmolik Wrote:  Despite losing 45-3, Oklahoma State is still in pretty good shape to go to the Big 12 Championship Game if they win out. All they would practically need would be would be for Iowa State to lose to Texas as Oklahoma State has beaten every other two loss Big 12 team (Oklahoma, Kansas State, and West Virginia). Oklahoma State actually wants Texas to not be in a tiebreaker with them since they didn't play UT, they would negate any tiebreaker advantage the Cowboys would have over Oklahoma, Kansas State, and/or West Virginia. Iowa State joining the tiebreaker would be worse as they beat Oklahoma State although in a multiple team tiebreaker there's a chance that head to head won't come into play.

IMO it would be a disaster for the B12 if a team that got shellacked by 40 by an unranked team made the CCG.

Forget that, it would be a disaster for the B12 if a team that lost 33-7 to a Sun Belt team made the CCG.
11-11-2023 08:45 PM
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quo vadis Online
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Post: #43
RE: 2023 CCG Scenarios
(11-11-2023 08:45 PM)schmolik Wrote:  
(11-11-2023 08:41 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(11-11-2023 07:50 PM)schmolik Wrote:  Despite losing 45-3, Oklahoma State is still in pretty good shape to go to the Big 12 Championship Game if they win out. All they would practically need would be would be for Iowa State to lose to Texas as Oklahoma State has beaten every other two loss Big 12 team (Oklahoma, Kansas State, and West Virginia). Oklahoma State actually wants Texas to not be in a tiebreaker with them since they didn't play UT, they would negate any tiebreaker advantage the Cowboys would have over Oklahoma, Kansas State, and/or West Virginia. Iowa State joining the tiebreaker would be worse as they beat Oklahoma State although in a multiple team tiebreaker there's a chance that head to head won't come into play.

IMO it would be a disaster for the B12 if a team that got shellacked by 40 by an unranked team made the CCG.

Forget that, it would be a disaster for the B12 if a team that lost 33-7 to a Sun Belt team made the CCG.

True.
11-11-2023 08:46 PM
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Crayton Offline
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Post: #44
RE: 2023 CCG Scenarios
Wow! UNC won tonight in an exciting game but do they really have a chance at Charlotte? It's very small. First, they need to beat Clemson and NC State and have Louisville lose to Miami. Both teams would be 4-2 against common opponents; tie-breaker goes 1 by 1 through those 6 teams until a team has a superior record.

Louisville's win against GT (4-3) is likely to net the Cards a victory BUT, Georgia Tech 'could' lose to Syracuse while Miami (2-4 and a UNC victim) beats BC in addition to Louisville. With GT and Miami tied at 4-4, we continue down to Pittsburgh (beat by UNC) and Virginia (beat by Louisville); both are 1-5 with 2 games not otherwise contingent on this scenario. Louisville has clinched the next tie-breaker (Strength of Conference Schedule), so UNC 'needs' Pitt to finish ahead of (not tied with) UVA.

And let us not forget .500 Virginia Tech can also join the party at 6-2. I'm 'pretty sure' Louisville wins because they have the head-to-head on VT after UNC is dropped for losing to an opponent common to all 3 (UVA). But if a team has to clear both tied opponents in the same tie-breaker and UNC is also 6-2, it goes to Strength of Conference Schedule. We already know Louisville clears UNC. How about Virginia Tech?

Virginia Tech played FSU (8-0), Syracuse (1-5), and Wake Forest (1-6) while Louisville played Georgia Tech (4-3), Duke (3-3), and Miami (3-4). I'm including Louisville's loss to Miami. Both sets of teams have 10 wins. Virginia Tech would need to win outright (because they will 'not' win in the computers, the next tiebreaker). Syracuse plays Wake Forest, so VT needs Syracuse to beat Georgia Tech and have 2 of these 3 other outcomes: Duke<UVA, Duke<Pitt, and Miami<BC. Tall task. If it does go to the computers (because UNC is still technically tied), the Tarheels could benefit from a Louisville loss to Kentucky.
11-11-2023 11:52 PM
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RE: 2023 CCG Scenarios
Oklahoma State is like Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde.
11-12-2023 12:10 AM
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RE: 2023 CCG Scenarios
(11-11-2023 08:37 PM)GoBuckeyes1047 Wrote:  

Would the winner of that game get an invite to the Sun Belt Conference, by chance?

On a serious note, the last time New Mexico State won a conference title was in 1978. Truly impressive work by Jerry Kill and his staff to earn the Aggies a berth in the C-USA Championship Game.
11-12-2023 12:47 AM
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RE: 2023 CCG Scenarios
There are 5 Big 12 schools with 2 or fewer conference losses and Iowa State and Kansas State close with each other so no more than 4 schools can finish with two or fewer losses.

If Texas wins out, Oklahoma State would win a tiebreak over Oklahoma and/or Kansas State. But if Texas beats Iowa State and somehow loses to Texas Tech, the head to head win advantage Ok State has over OU and KSU goes away. Likewise, if Iowa State beats Texas, Oklahoma State's head to head win advantage goes away even if Iowa State loses to Kansas State. So Oklahoma State actually wants Texas to win out to help them, does the #1 or #2 seed really matter?

If Iowa State wins out, the most likely outcome is the four way Iowa State, Texas, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State tiebreaker I wrote previously. If Iowa State beats Texas and loses to Kansas State, the most likely outcome is a four way tiebreaker between Kansas State, Texas, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma State. Kansas State does have to go to Lawrence next Saturday but Texas Tech won there yesterday. A three way tie between Texas, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma State wouldn't go to head to head because Texas and Oklahoma State didn't play and Oklahoma has 1 win and 1 loss.

Anyone want to decode these?
(This post was last modified: 11-12-2023 07:59 AM by schmolik.)
11-12-2023 07:57 AM
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Crayton Offline
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Post: #48
RE: 2023 CCG Scenarios
(11-12-2023 07:57 AM)schmolik Wrote:  There are 5 Big 12 schools with 2 or fewer conference losses and Iowa State and Kansas State close with each other so no more than 4 schools can finish with two or fewer losses.

If Texas wins out, Oklahoma State would win a tiebreak over Oklahoma and/or Kansas State. But if Texas beats Iowa State and somehow loses to Texas Tech, the head to head win advantage Ok State has over OU and KSU goes away. Likewise, if Iowa State beats Texas, Oklahoma State's head to head win advantage goes away even if Iowa State loses to Kansas State. So Oklahoma State actually wants Texas to win out to help them, does the #1 or #2 seed really matter?

If Iowa State wins out, the most likely outcome is the four way Iowa State, Texas, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State tiebreaker I wrote previously. If Iowa State beats Texas and loses to Kansas State, the most likely outcome is a four way tiebreaker between Kansas State, Texas, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma State. Kansas State does have to go to Lawrence next Saturday but Texas Tech won there yesterday. A three way tie between Texas, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma State wouldn't go to head to head because Texas and Oklahoma State didn't play and Oklahoma has 1 win and 1 loss.

Anyone want to decode these?

I started. Realized I made a mistake in who plays who the next 2 weeks. Gave up. Maybe later this week the internet will produce an answer. IS ChatGPT hooked up to the live internet yet?
11-12-2023 08:44 AM
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schmolik Online
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RE: 2023 CCG Scenarios
Let's go to the Pac 12.

With Washington being undefeated, the only teams mathematically alive are Washington, Oregon, Oregon State, and Arizona.

Even if Washington loses their last two games, one will be to Oregon State and they will get the head to head over Washington in a head to head tiebreaker but the only way Oregon State would tie with Washington would be if Oregon State beats Oregon and then Oregon would have a second loss and Oregon lost to Washington. In a three way tiebreaker, Oregon State would win the #1 seed but Washington would be the #2 seed, Oregon would be out.

The one catch would be if Arizona made it a four way tie. Arizona beat Oregon State and Oregon and Arizona didn't play so no head to head can either put any of the four teams into the championship game or eliminate a team.

In terms of common opponents, Washington's two losses would be Oregon State and Washington State, Oregon's would be Washington and Oregon State, Oregon State's would be Washington State and Arizona, and Arizona's would be to Washington and USC. USC will not play Oregon State so they can't be used as a common opponent. Washington State will play all four of them. Since Wazzu beat Washington and Oregon State, they would be eliminated, leaving Oregon and Arizona. When comparing Oregon and Arizona head to head, now Oregon State and USC can be used but Oregon beat USC and Arizona beat Oregon State so that's a wash. Because Oregon State will finish better in the standings than USC, Arizona's win over Oregon State beats Oregon's win over USC so they are the #1 seed. Then it goes back to a three way tie between Oregon, Oregon State, and Washington. Oregon State beat both Oregon and Washington so they're in, Washington and Oregon would be out and we all had Arizona and Oregon State in the Pac 12 Championship Game, right?

If Oregon beats Oregon State, Washington would win a head to head tiebreaker with Arizona (and with Oregon if somehow they lost to Arizona State).

If Oregon State beats Washington and Oregon, Arizona wins out, and Washington beats Washington State, UW clinches the top seed and it's a 3 way tie for the #2 seed. Oregon's losses would be Washington and Oregon State, Oregon State's would be Washington State and Arizona, and Arizona's would be to Washington and USC. Oregon and Arizona didn't play so no head to head. Washington now counts as a common opponent for all three and Oregon State beat them while Oregon and Arizona lost to them. But Oregon State lost to WSU and Oregon and Arizona beat both of them. But beating Washington would give Oregon State the #2 seed in the strongest opponent tiebreaker). So Oregon State most likely makes it to Vegas if they win out, even if Arizona also wins out (best case for them would be if WSU beats UW and they get to play Arizona in the Championship instead of Washington although they did lose to Arizona).

If Washington and Oregon both win Saturday, Oregon State would be eliminated from Pac 12 Championship consideration before Oregon State-Oregon. Oregon and Arizona can still tie if Oregon loses to Oregon State. In that tiebreaker, Oregon's losses would be Washington and Oregon State, Arizona's would be Washington and USC. But in this scenario, Oregon State would have three losses. If USC wins out, they would still be tied in the strongest opponent tiebreaker. It's too complicated for me after this.
11-12-2023 08:56 AM
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Post: #50
RE: 2023 CCG Scenarios
(11-12-2023 08:56 AM)schmolik Wrote:  Let's go to the Pac 12.

With Washington being undefeated, the only teams mathematically alive are Washington, Oregon, Oregon State, and Arizona.

Even if Washington loses their last two games, one will be to Oregon State and they will get the head to head over Washington in a head to head tiebreaker but the only way Oregon State would tie with Washington would be if Oregon State beats Oregon and then Oregon would have a second loss and Oregon lost to Washington. In a three way tiebreaker, Oregon State would win the #1 seed but Washington would be the #2 seed, Oregon would be out.

The one catch would be if Arizona made it a four way tie. Arizona beat Oregon State and Oregon and Arizona didn't play so no head to head can either put any of the four teams into the championship game or eliminate a team.

In terms of common opponents, Washington's two losses would be Oregon State and Washington State, Oregon's would be Washington and Oregon State, Oregon State's would be Washington State and Arizona, and Arizona's would be to Washington and USC. USC will not play Oregon State so they can't be used as a common opponent. Washington State will play all four of them. Since Wazzu beat Washington and Oregon State, they would be eliminated, leaving Oregon and Arizona. When comparing Oregon and Arizona head to head, now Oregon State and USC can be used but Oregon beat USC and Arizona beat Oregon State so that's a wash. Because Oregon State will finish better in the standings than USC, Arizona's win over Oregon State beats Oregon's win over USC so they are the #1 seed. Then it goes back to a three way tie between Oregon, Oregon State, and Washington. Oregon State beat both Oregon and Washington so they're in, Washington and Oregon would be out and we all had Arizona and Oregon State in the Pac 12 Championship Game, right?

If Oregon beats Oregon State, Washington would win a head to head tiebreaker with Arizona (and with Oregon if somehow they lost to Arizona State).

If Oregon State beats Washington and Oregon, Arizona wins out, and Washington beats Washington State, UW clinches the top seed and it's a 3 way tie for the #2 seed. Oregon's losses would be Washington and Oregon State, Oregon State's would be Washington State and Arizona, and Arizona's would be to Washington and USC. Oregon and Arizona didn't play so no head to head. Washington now counts as a common opponent for all three and Oregon State beat them while Oregon and Arizona lost to them. But Oregon State lost to WSU and Oregon and Arizona beat both of them. But beating Washington would give Oregon State the #2 seed in the strongest opponent tiebreaker). So Oregon State most likely makes it to Vegas if they win out, even if Arizona also wins out (best case for them would be if WSU beats UW and they get to play Arizona in the Championship instead of Washington although they did lose to Arizona).

If Washington and Oregon both win Saturday, Oregon State would be eliminated from Pac 12 Championship consideration before Oregon State-Oregon. Oregon and Arizona can still tie if Oregon loses to Oregon State. In that tiebreaker, Oregon's losses would be Washington and Oregon State, Arizona's would be Washington and USC. But in this scenario, Oregon State would have three losses. If USC wins out, they would still be tied in the strongest opponent tiebreaker. It's too complicated for me after this.
H2H tie breakers would only apply if all tied teams have played each other so any combination that would involve both Arizona & Oregon then H2H would be ignored as they missed each other this season.

4 way 7-2 tie between between Arizona, Oregon, Oregon St & Washington: Arizona & Oregon (AZ/Oregon went 4-0 vs comm opp. Oregon St/Wash went 3-1)
3 way 7-2 tie between Oregon, Oregon St & Washington: Oregon St & Washington (Oregon St beat both Oregon/Wash and Wash beat Oregon)
3 way 7-2 tie between Arizona, Oregon & Oregon St: Oregon St (all went 4-1 against comm opp., record against highest common opp. Washington: Oregon St 1-0, AZ & Oregon 0-1)
3 way 7-2 tie between Arizona, Oregon St & Washington: Arizona & Oregon St (AZ would be 3-0 against common opp., Oregon St/WA both 2-1, Oregon St then beats WA by H2H)
3 way 7-2 tie between Arizona, Oregon & Washington: Arizona & Oregon (AZ & Oregon would both be 5-1 against common opponents and Wash would be 4-2)
Oregon/Arizona would be the only singular pairing that wouldn't be solved by H2H and the highest common opponent is still too fluid to determine who it would be.

If Oregon were to lose out and Arizona & Oregon St also both lost opening the door for 6-3 tie breakers to come into play there would be too many options to go through
11-13-2023 12:27 PM
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Post: #51
RE: 2023 CCG Scenarios
(11-11-2023 08:46 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(11-11-2023 08:45 PM)schmolik Wrote:  
(11-11-2023 08:41 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(11-11-2023 07:50 PM)schmolik Wrote:  Despite losing 45-3, Oklahoma State is still in pretty good shape to go to the Big 12 Championship Game if they win out. All they would practically need would be would be for Iowa State to lose to Texas as Oklahoma State has beaten every other two loss Big 12 team (Oklahoma, Kansas State, and West Virginia). Oklahoma State actually wants Texas to not be in a tiebreaker with them since they didn't play UT, they would negate any tiebreaker advantage the Cowboys would have over Oklahoma, Kansas State, and/or West Virginia. Iowa State joining the tiebreaker would be worse as they beat Oklahoma State although in a multiple team tiebreaker there's a chance that head to head won't come into play.

IMO it would be a disaster for the B12 if a team that got shellacked by 40 by an unranked team made the CCG.

Forget that, it would be a disaster for the B12 if a team that lost 33-7 to a Sun Belt team made the CCG.

True.

Big 12 Championship: Texas vs OU

Just make the networks happy and give them what they want.

Big 12 can milk the cash cows 1 more time. The narrative doesn't change if one of the Hateful 8 make it to conference championship game.

Texas to the CFP
OU to the NY6

Financially, maximizing the bowl payout is key. 1 CFP bid, 1 NY6 bid, and 7 contract bowls for 9 Bowl bids. 7 teams are currently bowl eligible with 2 more teams sitting at 5-5.
11-13-2023 12:46 PM
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Post: #52
RE: 2023 CCG Scenarios
Big 12 about to pull a Judy. Tie-breaker is written that in a 3-way tie, if 1 team sweeps the other 2 they only get the nod if those other 2 completed the round-robin. Notably OSU sweeping Oklahoma and KSU, but those 2 did not play each other.

https://footballscoop.com/news/the-big-1...nsas-state

Conference will review later today.
11-15-2023 04:55 AM
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RE: 2023 CCG Scenarios
Louisville clinches their spot in the ACC Championship, will play Florida State. It's Louisville's first appearance in the championship game because they were obviously blocked by Clemson and Florida State for many years in the Atlantic Division.
11-18-2023 04:24 PM
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RE: 2023 CCG Scenarios
Assuming SMU wins over Navy, they will be in the AAC Championship over the winner of Texas San Antonio at Tulane. If SMU loses, they would be tied with the UTSA-Tulane loser. The tiebreakers I saw essentially say CFP rankings followed by computer ranking average are the tiebreakers. Tulane is ranked so I would assume they would host over SMU. Because SMU has two losses and UTSA three, I would assume SMU would host over UTSA if they both win. Should SMU lose, Tulane would get in over them if they lose and SMU would get in over UTSA if they lose (the winner would be the #1 seed).
11-18-2023 04:29 PM
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Crayton Offline
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RE: 2023 CCG Scenarios
(11-18-2023 04:29 PM)schmolik Wrote:  Assuming SMU wins over Navy, they will be in the AAC Championship over the winner of Texas San Antonio at Tulane. If SMU loses, they would be tied with the UTSA-Tulane loser. The tiebreakers I saw essentially say CFP rankings followed by computer ranking average are the tiebreakers. Tulane is ranked so I would assume they would host over SMU. Because SMU has two losses and UTSA three, I would assume SMU would host over UTSA if they both win. Should SMU lose, Tulane would get in over them if they lose and SMU would get in over UTSA if they lose (the winner would be the #1 seed).

Can confirm that all 4 computer rankings comfortably have the 3 mentioned teams in that order. Sound summary.
(This post was last modified: 11-18-2023 04:47 PM by Crayton.)
11-18-2023 04:46 PM
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RE: 2023 CCG Scenarios
(11-18-2023 04:46 PM)Crayton Wrote:  
(11-18-2023 04:29 PM)schmolik Wrote:  Assuming SMU wins over Navy, they will be in the AAC Championship over the winner of Texas San Antonio at Tulane. If SMU loses, they would be tied with the UTSA-Tulane loser. The tiebreakers I saw essentially say CFP rankings followed by computer ranking average are the tiebreakers. Tulane is ranked so I would assume they would host over SMU. Because SMU has two losses and UTSA three, I would assume SMU would host over UTSA if they both win. Should SMU lose, Tulane would get in over them if they lose and SMU would get in over UTSA if they lose (the winner would be the #1 seed).

Can confirm that all 4 computer rankings comfortably have the 3 mentioned teams in that order. Sound summary.

Texas San Antonio-Tulane Friday 3:30 on ABC.
Navy-SMU Saturday noon on ESPN2.

SMU will know who wins the Black Friday game. If Tulane wins, SMU will practically be in the AAC Championship win or lose vs Navy and will have no chance to host so their game practically means nothing. Would a two loss SMU who beat Tulane have a chance at the NY6 bid?
11-18-2023 06:19 PM
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RE: 2023 CCG Scenarios
(11-18-2023 04:29 PM)schmolik Wrote:  Assuming SMU wins over Navy, they will be in the AAC Championship over the winner of Texas San Antonio at Tulane. If SMU loses, they would be tied with the UTSA-Tulane loser. The tiebreakers I saw essentially say CFP rankings followed by computer ranking average are the tiebreakers. Tulane is ranked so I would assume they would host over SMU. Because SMU has two losses and UTSA three, I would assume SMU would host over UTSA if they both win. Should SMU lose, Tulane would get in over them if they lose and SMU would get in over UTSA if they lose (the winner would be the #1 seed).

UTSA, Tulane and SMU are tied. The Tulane vs UTSA would get in the championship. If UTSA and SMU wins? It would be UTSA vs SMU for AAC championship. If UTSA wins it all out? UTSA would be 10-3 and alone at the top of the AAC. SMU and Tulane would be tied for second. That would mean Liberty or Toledo winner in their championship games would go to the NY 6 Bowl follow by I think Fresno State and UNLV winner. SBC don't have a team near the top. As it is, New Mexico State is beating Auburn at the half.
11-18-2023 06:27 PM
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RE: 2023 CCG Scenarios
(11-18-2023 06:27 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  
(11-18-2023 06:19 PM)schmolik Wrote:  SMU will know who wins the Black Friday game. If Tulane wins, SMU will practically be in the AAC Championship win or lose vs Navy and will have no chance to host so their game practically means nothing. Would a two loss SMU who beat Tulane have a chance at the NY6 bid?

UTSA, Tulane and SMU are tied. The Tulane vs UTSA would get in the championship. If UTSA and SMU wins? It would be UTSA vs SMU for AAC championship. If UTSA wins it all out? UTSA would be 10-3 and alone at the top of the AAC. SMU and Tulane would be tied for second. That would mean Liberty or Toledo winner in their championship games would go to the NY 6 Bowl follow by I think Fresno State and UNLV winner. SBC don't have a team near the top. As it is, New Mexico State is beating Auburn at the half.

Not that this is the thread for this speculation, but I've got Liberty and Troy (if they win out) followed by the MW Champ (if they win out) ahead of SMU. Toledo is in the next tier alongside many of the above teams with an additional loss.
11-18-2023 06:45 PM
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Crayton Offline
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RE: 2023 CCG Scenarios
The East was already to be determined by The Game, regardless of this week's outcomes (both Michigan and OSU won).

EDIT: pay no attention to the below. Iowa won and is headed for Indianapolis. :)

The West gets exciting with an Iowa loss to Illinois this week. If Iowa loses again next week to Nebraska, we could see a three-way tie between the Hawkeyes and the Illinois-Northwestern winner as well as tonight's Nebraska-Wisconsin winner (Wisconsin would need to win next week against Minnesota as well).

Possible Ties:
Iowa-Northwestern (IOWA, h2h sweep)
Iowa-Northwestern-Nebraska (NEBRASKA, h2h sweep)
Iowa-Northwestern-Wisconsin (IOWA, h2h sweep)
Iowa-Illinois (ILLINOIS, h2h sweep)
Iowa-Illinois-Nebraska (NEBRASKA, h2h sweep)
Iowa-Illinois-Wisconsin (WISCONSIN, best division record)

Outside making the tie, here are teams' rooting interests:
Nebraska controls their own destiny.
Illinois will need Wisconsin to win tonight and then lose next week.
Wisconsin will need Illinois to beat Northwestern next week.
Iowa wants Nebraska to lose tonight, just in case they lose next week; they'd also need NW>ILL.
Northwestern is eliminated.
(This post was last modified: 11-18-2023 07:08 PM by Crayton.)
11-18-2023 07:08 PM
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RE: 2023 CCG Scenarios
(11-18-2023 04:24 PM)schmolik Wrote:  Louisville clinches their spot in the ACC Championship, will play Florida State. It's Louisville's first appearance in the championship game because they were obviously blocked by Clemson and Florida State for many years in the Atlantic Division.

Louisville is in my opinion the most remarkable story of this college football season..
11-18-2023 10:25 PM
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