Article below is showing the aftermath of the "war" that happened between Azerbaijan and Armenia. Russia has been propping up Armenia for while now while Turkey supported Azerbaijan. No one had the stomach to poke the bear...until now. It's safe to say that Russia's preoccupation with Ukraine is affecting it's ability to project power elsewhere. I think Russia pulled troops away from Armenia to fight in Ukraine. Moving forward it's going to be interesting to see if Putin makes adjustments moving forward - possibly even looking for an exit ramp out of the Ukraine conflict.

Tsar Vladimir Putin the first will have some things to think about. Also recall Wagner isn't what it used to be (not sure if disbanded now???) so that creates vacuums in the Middle East and Africa.

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacif...023-09-25/

Quote:Thousands of ethnic Armenians fled the breakaway region of Nagorno-Karabakh on Monday, queuing up for fuel and jamming the road to Armenia after their decades-old separatist state was defeated by Azerbaijan in a lightning military operation.

The leadership of the 120,000 Armenians who call Karabakh home told Reuters on Sunday that they did not want to live as part of Azerbaijan and that they would leave for Armenia because they feared persecution and ethnic cleansing.

In the Karabakh capital, known as Stepanakert by Armenia and Khankendi by Azerbaijan, crowds of people were loading belongings into buses and trucks as they left for Armenia.

Refugees who reached Armenia told Reuters they believed the history of their breakaway state was finished.

"No one is going back - that's it," Anna Agopyan, who reached Goris, a border town in Armenia, told Reuters. "The topic of Karabakh is over now for good, I think."

The Russians are having problems on a number of fronts now. The Storm Shadow attack on Russian Black Sea headquarters a few days ago was successful beyond the most optimistic hopes. 34 Russian officers were killed, including Admiral Sokolov commander of the Black Sea fleet, and 105 wounded. This should degrade Russian command and control for a while ... And may, in part, account for Russia's failed attempt to close the salient created by Ukrainian forces yesterday.

Link to the Institute for the Study of War. Russian sources state that operational effectiveness has been degraded after the loss of so many officers. Related map is at the bottom of yesterday's report.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgro...er-24-2023

That's okay, China is filling the void. And in Cold War II, China is our big enemy.

After the fall of the Berlin Wall, the neocons in the State and Defense Departments continued to treat Russia as USA enemy #1. They weren't, they didn't have the ability to be, but those bureaucrats had said it for so long that they couldn't say anything else. So we pursued an anti-Russia strategy that drove them into closer and closer alliance with China.

As an alternative, we could have triangulated Russia against China, and I would argue would be far better off today. I don't know if or how we could go to that strategy today. It's too late, we just have to deal with the hand that the last 3 decades have dealt to us.

(09-25-2023 09:41 AM)TIGERCITY Wrote:  Link to the Institute for the Study of War. Russian sources state that operational effectiveness has been degraded after the loss of so many officers. Related map is at the bottom of yesterday's report.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgro...er-24-2023

The who we are section of that website is a neocon warmonger love fest. That org was founded by Kimberly Kagan. Wonder if she's related to Robert Kagan, who is married to Victoria Nuland who spearheaded (along with the CIA) the coup in Ukraine in 2014.

(09-25-2023 09:58 AM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  That's okay, China is filling the void. And in Cold War II, China is our big enemy.

After the fall of the Berlin Wall, the neocons in the State and Defense Departments continued to treat Russia as USA enemy #1. They weren't, they didn't have the ability to be, but those bureaucrats had said it for so long that they couldn't say anything else. So we pursued an anti-Russia strategy that drove them into closer and closer alliance with China.

As an alternative, we could have triangulated Russia against China, and I would argue would be far better off today. I don't know if or how we could go to that strategy today. It's too late, we just have to deal with the hand that the last 3 decades have dealt to us.

We really **** the bed in multiple ways propping up China. Imagine if all the billions, if not trillions of dollars invested in China by US companies was instead invested in Mexico and central America. I would have much rather built up our neighbor(s) to the south, who largely share the same values as Americans. This would have decreased the flow of illegal immigration into the US, and economic opportunity likely would have helped prevent the cartels from growing into the de-facto governing body that they are today.

(09-25-2023 10:34 AM)Niner National Wrote:  

(09-25-2023 09:58 AM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  That's okay, China is filling the void. And in Cold War II, China is our big enemy.

After the fall of the Berlin Wall, the neocons in the State and Defense Departments continued to treat Russia as USA enemy #1. They weren't, they didn't have the ability to be, but those bureaucrats had said it for so long that they couldn't say anything else. So we pursued an anti-Russia strategy that drove them into closer and closer alliance with China.

As an alternative, we could have triangulated Russia against China, and I would argue would be far better off today. I don't know if or how we could go to that strategy today. It's too late, we just have to deal with the hand that the last 3 decades have dealt to us.

We really **** the bed in multiple ways propping up China. Imagine if all the billions, if not trillions of dollars invested in China by US companies was instead invested in Mexico and central America. I would have much rather built up our neighbor(s) to the south, who largely share the same values as Americans. This would have decreased the flow of illegal immigration into the US, and economic opportunity likely would have helped prevent the cartels from growing into the de-facto governing body that they are today.

The problem you run into is we used China as the local counterweight against the USSR. If you had to choose one, you would have to go China over Russia. Could you imagine if it was Russia becoming the “world factory” with all of those natural resources? And on top of that the largest nuclear arsenal?

The problem with international politics is there is always a “wrong choice”. There was nothing stopping other developed countries from engaging China if the US had the foresight to predict china’s meteoric rise economically. OTOH, China’s economic numbers appear to have been inflated for years.

(09-25-2023 09:58 AM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  That's okay, China is filling the void. And in Cold War II, China is our big enemy.

After the fall of the Berlin Wall, the neocons in the State and Defense Departments continued to treat Russia as USA enemy #1. They weren't, they didn't have the ability to be, but those bureaucrats had said it for so long that they couldn't say anything else. So we pursued an anti-Russia strategy that drove them into closer and closer alliance with China.

As an alternative, we could have triangulated Russia against China, and I would argue would be far better off today. I don't know if or how we could go to that strategy today. It's too late, we just have to deal with the hand that the last 3 decades have dealt to us.

They were talking in the early 90s about China subsidizing their steel industry and destroying ours, but nobody did anything about it. They just let US industry keep buying cheap Chinese steel.

(09-25-2023 11:10 AM)miko33 Wrote:  

(09-25-2023 10:34 AM)Niner National Wrote:  

(09-25-2023 09:58 AM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  That's okay, China is filling the void. And in Cold War II, China is our big enemy.

After the fall of the Berlin Wall, the neocons in the State and Defense Departments continued to treat Russia as USA enemy #1. They weren't, they didn't have the ability to be, but those bureaucrats had said it for so long that they couldn't say anything else. So we pursued an anti-Russia strategy that drove them into closer and closer alliance with China.

As an alternative, we could have triangulated Russia against China, and I would argue would be far better off today. I don't know if or how we could go to that strategy today. It's too late, we just have to deal with the hand that the last 3 decades have dealt to us.

We really **** the bed in multiple ways propping up China. Imagine if all the billions, if not trillions of dollars invested in China by US companies was instead invested in Mexico and central America. I would have much rather built up our neighbor(s) to the south, who largely share the same values as Americans. This would have decreased the flow of illegal immigration into the US, and economic opportunity likely would have helped prevent the cartels from growing into the de-facto governing body that they are today.

The problem you run into is we used China as the local counterweight against the USSR. If you had to choose one, you would have to go China over Russia. Could you imagine if it was Russia becoming the “world factory” with all of those natural resources? And on top of that the largest nuclear arsenal?

The problem with international politics is there is always a “wrong choice”. There was nothing stopping other developed countries from engaging China if the US had the foresight to predict china’s meteoric rise economically. OTOH, China’s economic numbers appear to have been inflated for years.

Correct. While I think ultimately we have more in common with the Russians than the Chinese---the reality is that our mistake was not whether to pick China or Russia as our friend----the mistake was thinking we could rely on either of those nations for critical portions of our own critical supply chain. That issue is slowly being rectified----but it will take time. Its amazing to me that our leaders seem to have forgotten that the entire reason we were able to win WWII was we had all of our critical supply chains and resources on our own shores. One thing I do believe Zehien is right about----we are at an inflection point. We either do what is necessary to maintain the current American Rules Based World Order---or the world as we know it will vanish----replaced by an international landscaped that looks much more like the old Colonial Powers model. Thats pretty much the more familiar term for what Russia and China like to call a "Multi-polar World Order".

(09-25-2023 10:34 AM)Niner National Wrote:  

(09-25-2023 09:58 AM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  That's okay, China is filling the void. And in Cold War II, China is our big enemy.

After the fall of the Berlin Wall, the neocons in the State and Defense Departments continued to treat Russia as USA enemy #1. They weren't, they didn't have the ability to be, but those bureaucrats had said it for so long that they couldn't say anything else. So we pursued an anti-Russia strategy that drove them into closer and closer alliance with China.

As an alternative, we could have triangulated Russia against China, and I would argue would be far better off today. I don't know if or how we could go to that strategy today. It's too late, we just have to deal with the hand that the last 3 decades have dealt to us.

We really **** the bed in multiple ways propping up China. Imagine if all the billions, if not trillions of dollars invested in China by US companies was instead invested in Mexico and central America. I would have much rather built up our neighbor(s) to the south, who largely share the same values as Americans. This would have decreased the flow of illegal immigration into the US, and economic opportunity likely would have helped prevent the cartels from growing into the de-facto governing body that they are today.

Companies are finally realizing how unreliable China is and how they steal intellectual property. But the cartels have taken over parts of Mexico. India, South Africa, Brazil and Argentina are benefitting from the problems in Mexico.

(09-25-2023 09:36 AM)TIGERCITY Wrote:  The Russians are having problems on a number of fronts now. The Storm Shadow attack on Russian Black Sea headquarters a few days ago was successful beyond the most optimistic hopes. 34 Russian officers were killed, including Admiral Sokolov commander of the Black Sea fleet, and 105 wounded. This should degrade Russian command and control for a while ... And may, in part, account for Russia's failed attempt to close the salient created by Ukrainian forces yesterday.

The only question that's left standing was how did the ukrainians know there was a high level meeting being conducted when and where it was. The article below provides a possible answer. Doesn't get much more bizarre than this...

https://www.businessinsider.com/russian-...ort-2023-9

(09-25-2023 06:42 PM)TIGERCITY Wrote:  

(09-25-2023 09:36 AM)TIGERCITY Wrote:  The Russians are having problems on a number of fronts now. The Storm Shadow attack on Russian Black Sea headquarters a few days ago was successful beyond the most optimistic hopes. 34 Russian officers were killed, including Admiral Sokolov commander of the Black Sea fleet, and 105 wounded. This should degrade Russian command and control for a while ... And may, in part, account for Russia's failed attempt to close the salient created by Ukrainian forces yesterday.

The only question that's left standing was how did the ukrainians know there was a high level meeting being conducted when and where it was. The article below provides a possible answer. Doesn't get much more bizarre than this...

https://www.businessinsider.com/russian-...ort-2023-9

I mean----Crimea was Ukrainian until the Russians invaded and grabbed it in 2014. I suspect at the very least----20% to 30% of the population there is sympathetic to the Ukrainian cause. That probably makes it fairly easy to get intelligence in the area. Frankly, Im surprised the Russians have had as little trouble with sabotage and assassinations in Crimea and the newly acquired land bridge as they have.

To the OP - Russia is now threatening its allies. The only question now --- who pops the popcorn.

(09-25-2023 06:54 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(09-25-2023 06:42 PM)TIGERCITY Wrote:  

(09-25-2023 09:36 AM)TIGERCITY Wrote:  The Russians are having problems on a number of fronts now. The Storm Shadow attack on Russian Black Sea headquarters a few days ago was successful beyond the most optimistic hopes. 34 Russian officers were killed, including Admiral Sokolov commander of the Black Sea fleet, and 105 wounded. This should degrade Russian command and control for a while ... And may, in part, account for Russia's failed attempt to close the salient created by Ukrainian forces yesterday.

The only question that's left standing was how did the ukrainians know there was a high level meeting being conducted when and where it was. The article below provides a possible answer. Doesn't get much more bizarre than this...

https://www.businessinsider.com/russian-...ort-2023-9

I mean----Crimea was Ukrainian until the Russians invaded and grabbed it in 2014. I suspect at the very least----20% to 30% of the population there is sympathetic to the Ukrainian cause. That probably makes it fairly easy to get intelligence in the area. Frankly, Im surprised the Russians have had as little trouble with sabotage and assassinations in Crimea and the newly acquired land bridge as they have.

I agree with you on the *reported* assassinations and sabotage. But note we're not dealing with free flow of information. Authoritarians tend to do that. So the official Russian position on the Black Sea headquarters attack is still no one killed no one injured. Despite the collapse of the building, the video of multiple missiles hitting the headquarters, the Russian quarantine of information in the aftermath, and other empirical evidence that suggests otherwise. Something to think about...

(09-25-2023 08:10 AM)miko33 Wrote:  Article below is showing the aftermath of the "war" that happened between Azerbaijan and Armenia. Russia has been propping up Armenia for while now while Turkey supported Azerbaijan. No one had the stomach to poke the bear...until now. It's safe to say that Russia's preoccupation with Ukraine is affecting it's ability to project power elsewhere. I think Russia pulled troops away from Armenia to fight in Ukraine. Moving forward it's going to be interesting to see if Putin makes adjustments moving forward - possibly even looking for an exit ramp out of the Ukraine conflict.

Tsar Vladimir Putin the first will have some things to think about. Also recall Wagner isn't what it used to be (not sure if disbanded now???) so that creates vacuums in the Middle East and Africa.

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacif...023-09-25/

Quote:Thousands of ethnic Armenians fled the breakaway region of Nagorno-Karabakh on Monday, queuing up for fuel and jamming the road to Armenia after their decades-old separatist state was defeated by Azerbaijan in a lightning military operation.

The leadership of the 120,000 Armenians who call Karabakh home told Reuters on Sunday that they did not want to live as part of Azerbaijan and that they would leave for Armenia because they feared persecution and ethnic cleansing.

In the Karabakh capital, known as Stepanakert by Armenia and Khankendi by Azerbaijan, crowds of people were loading belongings into buses and trucks as they left for Armenia.

Refugees who reached Armenia told Reuters they believed the history of their breakaway state was finished.

"No one is going back - that's it," Anna Agopyan, who reached Goris, a border town in Armenia, told Reuters. "The topic of Karabakh is over now for good, I think."

A shorter version of this story could read hard to keep up the facade of Russian military might when Ukraine is a formidable foe for you.

(09-25-2023 09:58 AM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  That's okay, China is filling the void. And in Cold War II, China is our big enemy.

After the fall of the Berlin Wall, the neocons in the State and Defense Departments continued to treat Russia as USA enemy #1. They weren't, they didn't have the ability to be, but those bureaucrats had said it for so long that they couldn't say anything else. So we pursued an anti-Russia strategy that drove them into closer and closer alliance with China.

As an alternative, we could have triangulated Russia against China, and I would argue would be far better off today. I don't know if or how we could go to that strategy today. It's too late, we just have to deal with the hand that the last 3 decades have dealt to us.

^^^^^This ALL this!!^^^^^
With the obvious exception of the CCCP years, the US has had more in common with the Russians than not.
When I worked in DC nearly 30 years ago, I had a regular customer that worked in an unnamed agency there that told me he and others in his department had tried to get his agency to warm up to the "Rooskies" and use them to exert pressure on Iran, Pakistan, and China, but no one in the upper levels would listen to them.
They had spent their entire lives hating them, and didn't want to have to change now...
He felt that they NEEDED to have a big boogie man to that had to be kept in check, (because at that time China was not a big threat) to keep their funding and to keep building resources around the world to keep them in check.

(09-26-2023 12:44 AM)BlueDragon Wrote:  

(09-25-2023 08:10 AM)miko33 Wrote:  Article below is showing the aftermath of the "war" that happened between Azerbaijan and Armenia. Russia has been propping up Armenia for while now while Turkey supported Azerbaijan. No one had the stomach to poke the bear...until now. It's safe to say that Russia's preoccupation with Ukraine is affecting it's ability to project power elsewhere. I think Russia pulled troops away from Armenia to fight in Ukraine. Moving forward it's going to be interesting to see if Putin makes adjustments moving forward - possibly even looking for an exit ramp out of the Ukraine conflict.

Tsar Vladimir Putin the first will have some things to think about. Also recall Wagner isn't what it used to be (not sure if disbanded now???) so that creates vacuums in the Middle East and Africa.

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacif...023-09-25/

Quote:Thousands of ethnic Armenians fled the breakaway region of Nagorno-Karabakh on Monday, queuing up for fuel and jamming the road to Armenia after their decades-old separatist state was defeated by Azerbaijan in a lightning military operation.

The leadership of the 120,000 Armenians who call Karabakh home told Reuters on Sunday that they did not want to live as part of Azerbaijan and that they would leave for Armenia because they feared persecution and ethnic cleansing.

In the Karabakh capital, known as Stepanakert by Armenia and Khankendi by Azerbaijan, crowds of people were loading belongings into buses and trucks as they left for Armenia.

Refugees who reached Armenia told Reuters they believed the history of their breakaway state was finished.

"No one is going back - that's it," Anna Agopyan, who reached Goris, a border town in Armenia, told Reuters. "The topic of Karabakh is over now for good, I think."

A shorter version of this story could read hard to keep up the facade of Russian military might when Ukraine is a formidable foe for you.

Yeah Grandpa Putin has gotten himself bogged down by his so-called 5-day special operation. But of course the Russians put out a statement blaming the kremlins failure to come to the aid of Armenia as promised.... On Armenia. Yes Russia's failure to live up to his commitment is all armenia's fault. Of course the Russians have muscle memory when it comes to twisting facts. Spiced with the not so veiled threats that are the hallmarks of any Russian policy statement. See the full statement linked below
https://mid.ru/ru/foreign_policy/news/19...ar_cache=Y

It's hilarious to me how some of you believe all the propaganda you process daily, on the Internetz, on the TV. You know, those masters of lies and manipulation and group think. You have no real idea what is actually going on there.

Apologies to those here that have actually been to Russia and Ukraine lately.

Did Teddy get conscripted or something?

(09-26-2023 08:13 AM)BartlettTigerFan Wrote:  It's hilarious to me how some of you believe all the propaganda you process daily, on the Internetz, on the TV. You know, those masters of lies and manipulation and group think. You have no real idea what is actually going on there.

Apologies to those here that have actually been to Russia and Ukraine lately.

Which propaganda are you referring to?

A Russian ally lost a century-long territorial dispute practically overnight. To a Turkish-backed country. Likely for good, due to the two facts that Armenia is 1/3 the size of Azerbaijan and that the Armenians who live in the disputed region are being kicked out.

The Commander of the Black Sea Fleet was killed in an air raid.

Those aren't propaganda. Those are facts. Rather startling facts. And no matter how bad Ukraine is doing, those facts mean that Russia has already lost far more in this war than they could ever gain, even if they totally conquer Ukraine in the end.