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Rice vs. South Florida
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ExcitedOwl18 Offline
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Post: #1
Rice vs. South Florida
Rice opens as two point favorites vs. USF. Honestly surprised, it’s more of a pick’em for me mentally.
09-17-2023 01:34 PM
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GoodOwl Offline
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Exclamation RE: Rice vs. South Florida
(09-17-2023 01:34 PM)ExcitedOwl18 Wrote:  Rice opens as two point favorites vs. USF. Honestly surprised, it’s more of a pick’em for me mentally.

who'd they play down there this past weekend?
09-17-2023 02:35 PM
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WeatherfordOwl Offline
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Post: #3
RE: Rice vs. South Florida
(09-17-2023 02:35 PM)GoodOwl Wrote:  
(09-17-2023 01:34 PM)ExcitedOwl18 Wrote:  Rice opens as two point favorites vs. USF. Honestly surprised, it’s more of a pick’em for me mentally.

who'd they play down there this past weekend?

Really surprised Rice is favored, after South Florida hung with Alabama. Score was not out of hand and the stats surprisingly balanced. This will be a tough game for the Owls.
09-17-2023 10:55 PM
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OptimisticOwl Offline
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Post: #4
RE: Rice vs. South Florida
Alabama seems to not be vintage Alabama.

Rice wins 27-10.
09-17-2023 10:59 PM
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Intellectual_Brutality Offline
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Post: #5
RE: Rice vs. South Florida
If we beat USF I'll be legitimately impressed and ready to become a believer in Bloomgren Ball
USF 30 Rice 20
09-18-2023 01:41 AM
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Owl 69/70/75 Offline
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RE: Rice vs. South Florida
(09-18-2023 01:41 AM)Intellectual_Brutality Wrote:  If we beat USF I'll be legitimately impressed and ready to become a believer in Bloomgren Ball.

I don't expect a win, and while a win would clearly be impressive it won't bring me over to the Bloomgren bandwagon. What it would prove is that PTR can win with a QB who could start for Southern Cal, Georgia, and West Virginia. And that QB will be gone next year.

What I need to see is some indication of a sustainable program. What I see is a program that hasn't been very good without that caliber of QB. And six years of trying to work the transfer portal for a QB instead of developing one in-house has produced 5 losing seasons and a 2-1 record so far in the sixth. I still don't believe that Rice can consistently recruit either the o-linemen or QBs necessary to make PTR work year in and year out. My best hope for 2023 is the Rice can win 8 or 9 or more, that off that Bloomgren can build a resume as a builder and can land an upgrade job (Cal?), and that Rice can replace him with someone with an approach that is sustainable at Rice and strong Texas recruiting ties.
(This post was last modified: 09-18-2023 06:16 AM by Owl 69/70/75.)
09-18-2023 06:12 AM
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Fort Bend Owl Offline
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Post: #7
RE: Rice vs. South Florida
Your post lost me at PTR. Clearly you don’t pay attention to Rice football anymore.

ETA - my numbers may be wrong but I think we had 28 pass attempts and 13 rushes in the first half against Houston. This is the best pass blocking OL we’ve had in decades. We are now a pass first team. That’s our identity.
(This post was last modified: 09-18-2023 07:48 AM by Fort Bend Owl.)
09-18-2023 07:41 AM
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waltgreenberg Offline
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RE: Rice vs. South Florida
(09-18-2023 07:41 AM)Fort Bend Owl Wrote:  Your post lost me at PTR. Clearly you don’t pay attention to Rice football anymore.

He hasn't been to a Rice event in 5+ years. He's here only to rag on Rice. It's pretty pathetic really.
09-18-2023 07:47 AM
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Rice93 Offline
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Post: #9
RE: Rice vs. South Florida
One one hand, I understand #’s point about not developing a QB in-house.

OTOH the landscape of college football has completely changed due to the transfer portal rules. Look what Deion Sanders says about recruiting these days. He says that they are barely taking any high school kids because it makes no sense to do so with the transfer portal available. Why would you bring in an 18 year old kid when you have no idea how they will adjust to college when you have other players available that have already been tested? I think that notion is 10x for quarterbacks.
09-18-2023 08:22 AM
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Hambone10 Offline
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Post: #10
RE: Rice vs. South Florida
So because he says PTR, we're going to dismiss the rest of his commentary? All of these games have been on TV. You don't have to have been in the stands to see what happened.

Now, all that said... this is as excited as i've been about Rice football since iirc 2013... with IDK, 5-10 future NFL players on the roster??? which I saw first hand collapse like a church folding chair under a 400 pound deacon.

Numbers is absolutely right that this offense is 'winning' based on a single individual which it seems has taken years to find... and not been developed... who just 'happened' to be available due to injuries and bad luck... and will be gone next year.

Two very different things to me... being excited about Rice football and being excited about the future of Rice football. There is LOTS to be excited about, but we've seen first hand that conference championships and big wins and new buildings etc can be fleeting. You have to create opportunities, which Bloom seems to have done.... but then you have to capitalize on those opportunities that you create.

My hope is that he can demonstrate that the prototype pocket passer still has a place to go at Rice.
(This post was last modified: 09-18-2023 08:56 AM by Hambone10.)
09-18-2023 08:53 AM
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OptimisticOwl Offline
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Post: #11
RE: Rice vs. South Florida
Statistically, about 55% of our plays have been runs, about 45% passes. Is this still PTR? Most of our first downs have come from passing.

I too have my worries about next year. I sure hope Tui is still here. But I plan to enjoy this year as much as I can.
09-18-2023 09:01 AM
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waltgreenberg Offline
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RE: Rice vs. South Florida
(09-18-2023 08:53 AM)Hambone10 Wrote:  So because he says PTR, we're going to dismiss the rest of his commentary? All of these games have been on TV. You don't have to have been in the stands to see what happened.

Now, all that said... this is as excited as i've been about Rice football since iirc 2013... with IDK, 5-10 future NFL players on the roster??? which I saw first hand collapse like a church folding chair under a 400 pound deacon.

Numbers is absolutely right that this offense is 'winning' based on a single individual which it seems has taken years to find... and not been developed... who just 'happened' to be available due to injuries and bad luck... and will be gone next year.

Two very different things to me... being excited about Rice football and being excited about the future of Rice football. There is LOTS to be excited about, but we've seen first hand that conference championships and big wins and new buildings etc can be fleeting. You have to create opportunities, which Bloom seems to have done.... but then you have to capitalize on those opportunities that you create.

My hope is that he can demonstrate that the prototype pocket passer still has a place to go at Rice.

Bones, why are you defending #s? It wasn't just this post, but virtually ALL his posts on this board the past several years-- 95% are negative just for the sake of being negative. Heck, he even rips Rice for repainting the names and numbers on the circle of fame. And I very much doubt he's watching the games on ESPN+. Also, while Daniels has certainly been a big factor, to say that we're winning so far this year based on a single individual is insane. Daniels does not play on the defensive end which has held UT, UH and TSU to a single TD in each of the first halves this season. And while our OL still cannot open up holes for the running game, they've done an outstanding job protecting Daniels in the pocket. As far as QBs go, at least 6 of the currently ranked teams are going with transfers as their starting and leading QB.
09-18-2023 09:05 AM
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Hambone10 Offline
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RE: Rice vs. South Florida
(09-18-2023 09:05 AM)waltgreenberg Wrote:  Bones, why are you defending #s? It wasn't just this post, but virtually ALL his posts on this board the past several years-- 95% are negative just for the sake of being negative. Heck, he even rips Rice for repainting the names and numbers on the circle of fame. And I very much doubt he's watching the games on ESPN+. Also, while Daniels has certainly been a big factor, to say that we're winning so far this year based on a single individual is insane. Daniels does not play on the defensive end which has held UT, UH and TSU to a single TD in each of the first halves this season. And while our OL still cannot open up holes for the running game, they've done an outstanding job protecting Daniels in the pocket. As far as QBs go, at least 6 of the currently ranked teams are going with transfers as their starting and leading QB.

You're misrepresenting my argument. I did not say we're winning based on a single individual. I do think though that he has made a huge difference. McCaffery has had fewer targets (by my eyeballs) and doesn't have Rozner on the other side, but he has been vastly more effective because of Daniels. The team without Daniels is not the same team.... and a great WR with a poor QB is useless.

Our offense was non-existent against UT. Now of course UT is very good, but the offense was a non-factor in that game. Our defense, though very solid... also gave up iirc 35 unanswered to UH when the offense began to fail. As has often been the case, our defense is as good as our offense can keep them fresh.... but they are not good enough to beat teams without a competitive offense... The offense makes THE difference in the defense. They go from being solid, but getting worn out at the end... to solid throughout... and that is THE difference.... so it is fair to paint me as saying, Daniels makes a difference to the offense... and the offense makes a difference to the defense. That doesn't mean the defense can't be very solid... it just means that they are 'better' if they are not on the field all day.

as to 6 of the ranked teams having transfers, those are 'destination' schools... by that I mean a great QB at a non-ranked team (or even a ranked one) is going to want to go there. We aren't that... it remains to be seen if we can become a destination for say, guys with great touch and pocket presence who through perhaps injury or bad luck are no longer the threat to 'take it to the house' that some of these other guys are now.... so that's very much precisely what i was talking about.

If we can become that, count me in... I have no problem with that.... but once is not a pattern so it remains to be seen if we can do that. That's precisely what I meant because I see that as the new reality. Why bother developing a kid who might leave if he pans out... when you can instead poach a kid who has either developed from a lower level, or not quite fit the mold of the upper level.

I think the BOT et all have done an AMAZING job at creating opportunities for grad transfers.

I don't read all of the comments on here so I'm not responding as you allude to... but I am responding solely to the parts I responded to.... and I generally agree with him that although I am excited at what I've seen this year, it remains to be seen if this is a 'one time thing' or the new reality. It is worth noting that there isn't a 'coaches portal' and instead they have buy-outs and contracts.... so it is a strange metric.

I understand and agree with your positive assessment of the defense, but the biggest difference I see has been the QB play..... the number of well placed throws/catchable balls/extended plays/correct reads etc
09-18-2023 10:17 AM
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OptimisticOwl Offline
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Post: #14
RE: Rice vs. South Florida
(09-18-2023 10:17 AM)Hambone10 Wrote:  the biggest difference I see has been the QB play..... the number of well placed throws/catchable balls/extended plays/correct reads etc

Some credit due to the O-line...only 4 sacks given up so far.
09-18-2023 10:26 AM
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TheOwl84 Offline
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RE: Rice vs. South Florida
(09-18-2023 06:12 AM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  
(09-18-2023 01:41 AM)Intellectual_Brutality Wrote:  If we beat USF I'll be legitimately impressed and ready to become a believer in Bloomgren Ball.

I don't expect a win, and while a win would clearly be impressive it won't bring me over to the Bloomgren bandwagon. What it would prove is that PTR can win with a QB who could start for Southern Cal, Georgia, and West Virginia. And that QB will be gone next year.

What I need to see is some indication of a sustainable program. What I see is a program that hasn't been very good without that caliber of QB. And six years of trying to work the transfer portal for a QB instead of developing one in-house has produced 5 losing seasons and a 2-1 record so far in the sixth. I still don't believe that Rice can consistently recruit either the o-linemen or QBs necessary to make PTR work year in and year out. My best hope for 2023 is the Rice can win 8 or 9 or more, that off that Bloomgren can build a resume as a builder and can land an upgrade job (Cal?), and that Rice can replace him with someone with an approach that is sustainable at Rice and strong Texas recruiting ties.

Winning 8 or 9 more would put us at 10-11 wins and you would want us to lose Bloomgren after that? Like a lot of this board I think we should've gotten rid of Bloomgren 2-3 years ago. But starting last year we shifted away from the PTR offense and our team as a whole showed a lot more grit and were competitive/won games we wouldn't have won 5 years ago (UAB, LA Tech, UTEP). You're talking about developing a QB but what about developing a coach? We aren't LSU, we don't have a ton of talent that's always a good head coach away from winning a natty. There's a learning curve to coaching at Rice. Bloomgren looks like he might be figuring it out and our players seem to believe in this team and aren't giving up on Bloom. If we won 8+ games I would 100% want Bloomgren for another year before gambling on another coach making their head coaching debut who's gonna be taken aback with how difficult it is to recruit at Rice. Not to mention all the players we'd lose to the transfer portal. I'm not sold 100% sold on Bloomgren yet but to say that our best hope is that Bloomgren leaves us after a 10 win season is ridiculous.
09-18-2023 10:28 AM
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RiceFootball2K5 Offline
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Post: #16
RE: Rice vs. South Florida
(09-18-2023 08:53 AM)Hambone10 Wrote:  So because he says PTR, we're going to dismiss the rest of his commentary? All of these games have been on TV. You don't have to have been in the stands to see what happened.

Now, all that said... this is as excited as i've been about Rice football since iirc 2013... with IDK, 5-10 future NFL players on the roster??? which I saw first hand collapse like a church folding chair under a 400 pound deacon.

Numbers is absolutely right that this offense is 'winning' based on a single individual which it seems has taken years to find... and not been developed... who just 'happened' to be available due to injuries and bad luck... and will be gone next year.

Two very different things to me... being excited about Rice football and being excited about the future of Rice football. There is LOTS to be excited about, but we've seen first hand that conference championships and big wins and new buildings etc can be fleeting. You have to create opportunities, which Bloom seems to have done.... but then you have to capitalize on those opportunities that you create.

My hope is that he can demonstrate that the prototype pocket passer still has a place to go at Rice.

I agree with this post 100%. I am much more excited than I expected to be about the 2023 version of Rice football. Daniels is everything we could have hoped for. I think we can have a very good year. That said, I am still very skeptical about the future outlook, particularly when we are back to having Bloomgren ball sans a 5 star QB next year.
09-18-2023 10:31 AM
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Post: #17
RE: Rice vs. South Florida
(09-17-2023 10:55 PM)WeatherfordOwl Wrote:  
(09-17-2023 02:35 PM)GoodOwl Wrote:  
(09-17-2023 01:34 PM)ExcitedOwl18 Wrote:  Rice opens as two point favorites vs. USF. Honestly surprised, it’s more of a pick’em for me mentally.

who'd they play down there this past weekend?

Really surprised Rice is favored, after South Florida hung with Alabama. Score was not out of hand and the stats surprisingly balanced. This will be a tough game for the Owls.

I agree, it should be a tough game. But Alabama struggled largely because of bad QB play. We have a significantly better QB but a significantly worse O-line, we'll see which matters more. I think we put up more than Bama's 17 for sure.
09-18-2023 10:33 AM
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Hambone10 Offline
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RE: Rice vs. South Florida
(09-18-2023 10:28 AM)TheOwl84 Wrote:  Winning 8 or 9 more would put us at 10-11 wins and you would want us to lose Bloomgren after that? Like a lot of this board I think we should've gotten rid of Bloomgren 2-3 years ago. But starting last year we shifted away from the PTR offense and our team as a whole showed a lot more grit and were competitive/won games we wouldn't have won 5 years ago (UAB, LA Tech, UTEP). You're talking about developing a QB but what about developing a coach? We aren't LSU, we don't have a ton of talent that's always a good head coach away from winning a natty. There's a learning curve to coaching at Rice. Bloomgren looks like he might be figuring it out and our players seem to believe in this team and aren't giving up on Bloom. If we won 8+ games I would 100% want Bloomgren for another year before gambling on another coach making their head coaching debut who's gonna be taken aback with how difficult it is to recruit at Rice. Not to mention all the players we'd lose to the transfer portal. I'm not sold 100% sold on Bloomgren yet but to say that our best hope is that Bloomgren leaves us after a 10 win season is ridiculous.

Your first comment is the crux of the concern though.

DID he develop as a coach, or is it just a fortunate confluence of events? Is he a 3-5 win coach who struggled early and got lucky late or is he a coach who has simply taken a while to find his groove?

I agree with you that if he wins (I'm just picking a number that I would have laughed at a few weeks ago) 8+ then he HAS to be given an opportunity to prove to us that he has developed.

The key signal to me will be 'what kinds of kids' are we now seeing in the portal? If we see more McC's and Daniels, then he's probably turned a corner.

In this day and age, it seems to me that the interest you're getting in the portal is the biggest indicator of your future fortunes. My hope is that we start seeing more 4+ star guys with a few question marks... like Daniels and McC.
09-18-2023 10:39 AM
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Rice93 Offline
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RE: Rice vs. South Florida
(09-18-2023 10:39 AM)Hambone10 Wrote:  
(09-18-2023 10:28 AM)TheOwl84 Wrote:  Winning 8 or 9 more would put us at 10-11 wins and you would want us to lose Bloomgren after that? Like a lot of this board I think we should've gotten rid of Bloomgren 2-3 years ago. But starting last year we shifted away from the PTR offense and our team as a whole showed a lot more grit and were competitive/won games we wouldn't have won 5 years ago (UAB, LA Tech, UTEP). You're talking about developing a QB but what about developing a coach? We aren't LSU, we don't have a ton of talent that's always a good head coach away from winning a natty. There's a learning curve to coaching at Rice. Bloomgren looks like he might be figuring it out and our players seem to believe in this team and aren't giving up on Bloom. If we won 8+ games I would 100% want Bloomgren for another year before gambling on another coach making their head coaching debut who's gonna be taken aback with how difficult it is to recruit at Rice. Not to mention all the players we'd lose to the transfer portal. I'm not sold 100% sold on Bloomgren yet but to say that our best hope is that Bloomgren leaves us after a 10 win season is ridiculous.

Your first comment is the crux of the concern though.

DID he develop as a coach, or is it just a fortunate confluence of events? Is he a 3-5 win coach who struggled early and got lucky late or is he a coach who has simply taken a while to find his groove?

I agree with you that if he wins (I'm just picking a number that I would have laughed at a few weeks ago) 8+ then he HAS to be given an opportunity to prove to us that he has developed.

The key signal to me will be 'what kinds of kids' are we now seeing in the portal? If we see more McC's and Daniels, then he's probably turned a corner.

In this day and age, it seems to me that the interest you're getting in the portal is the biggest indicator of your future fortunes. My hope is that we start seeing more 4+ star guys with a few question marks... like Daniels and McC.

Yes. If Daniels has a big year then perhaps we can keep bringing in transfer quarterbacks with a lot more talent than we could have recruited straight out of high school.
09-18-2023 11:01 AM
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That Guy 2012 Offline
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Post: #20
RE: Rice vs. South Florida
My take after seeing three Rice games in person, and three USF highlight reels:

This isn't the USF of recent years. Not all the way back; this is an imminently winnable game, but we have to keep our eye on the ball. They outgained WKU and hung around late, undone by a -3 turnover margin; kept the top dog in the SWAC at arm's length, and gave Alabama fits. Bloom has conditioned me to expect an Owls no-show in this type of game, I hope to be wrong.

USF's pass game is impotent in terms of actually throwing the ball. Our coverage and pass rush will get their QB on the run. UH's Smith made hay like that on us in the second half, and if we aren't getting home on USF's Brown, we'll need a spy on him. If we lose, I'd guess it's because we let him run wild. He's bouncy and we need to make it a focal point to wrap him up instead of looking to make big hits.

Brown is the team's leading rusher, their program of planned rushes is fair-to-middling for a G5. They are nothing to fear, but if we lapse like we did during TSU's touchdown drive, they can string together enough to punish us. Our defense is improved, but we still aren't Alabama and I don't think we hold them to 3.

USF got a lot of pressure on Alabama's QB's but were very pedestrian in their first two games. Methinks Alabama's O-Line was motivation challenged on Saturday. JT might take a couple hits, but if our OL shows up, we'll be fine. Would like to see more screens and quick hitters than we showed last week. Alabama QB's got caught napping in the pocket a few times, so JT needs to keep up the high level of awareness he's demonstrated.

Our run game remains a relative weakness, but I think a healthy mix of Juma and Connors can do enough work to keep the Bulls defense honest and the Rice defense rested.

Owls 31
Bulls 21

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09-18-2023 11:18 AM
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