(10-02-2023 10:09 AM)HawaiiMongoose Wrote:  There's still a long way to go. Fresno State or Air Force or both could easily be upset in a conference game before reaching the MWC championship. Finishing a regular season undefeated is extraordinarily difficult at any level.

Very true. Wyoming on the road is no sure thing for Fresno this week, and AFA still has both Commander-in Chief's Trophy opponents yet to play along with Boise on the road.

I think that since humans will make the decision on NY6, and with a specific task in mind, doing more research than the average pollster...

Tulane lost to #15 Ole Miss... but played with their backup QB, as Pratt was out. And it was very close despite bad QB play late in the 4th quarter, until a pick six made it a two-possession game.

I wouldn't say that "the loss shouldn't count," because injuries are part of the game. But the committee will likely factor that in.

Either way, it's going to come down to the winners of Fresno/Wyoming and Tulane/Memphis compared to one another, and compared to Liberty and Marshall.

(10-02-2023 09:50 AM)ken d Wrote:  

(10-02-2023 09:44 AM)We Are the Dukes of JMU Wrote:  Compared to other JMU fans, I'm a little less angry about being ineligible this year. A rule's a rule and I expected it to be applied to us. The rule is archaic and should be changed, but it's the rule for now.

All that said, I'm not sure if JMU is completely ineligible for the NY6. It's an extreme long shot scenario that absolutely won't happen, but technically could happen. A bunch of things would need to fall into place:

1. JMU would need to finish the season undefeated and the highest ranked G5.
2. The SBC would need to declare JMU eligible for the SBC championship game. This can be done at the discretion of the conference.
3. There would need to not be enough deserving teams to fill all bowl spots. At that point, 6-win teams in their second year of transition become eligible in order of 3-year APR average. JMU has a higher APR than JSU or SHSU, so we're first in line for a bowl.
4. This is where things become gray. The NCAA bylaws state that all deserving teams must be selected before JMU/JSU/SHSU can be invited, but the rules are silent on the order in which bowls must make their selections. The question of whether JMU will be invited to a bowl will be answered before bowls make their selections. In theory, the NY6 bowl could simply defer its selection then select JMU on the basis that they are the highest ranked G5 champion.

Again, it's incredibly far fetched, but may technically be possible.

It would seem like #2 is a decision the conference could have and should have (and maybe had) made before the season started.

Your post raises an interesting question for me about what the NCAA transition rules say. Do they say transitioning teams are ineligible for a bowl game, or ineligible for post season play? And, if it's the latter, is a CCG considered post-season or regular season? If it's post-season then maybe the SBC doesn't have the discretion you assume.

It is also in the rules an exempt if there is no other team to fill a bowl spot? JMU could get in the bowl in their second year. That have not been changed.

(10-02-2023 10:09 AM)HawaiiMongoose Wrote:  There's still a long way to go. Fresno State or Air Force or both could easily be upset in a conference game before reaching the MWC championship. Finishing a regular season undefeated is extraordinarily difficult at any level.

Been done before.

Boise State
UCF
Hawaii
Utah
TCU
Tulane
Marshall
Cincinnati
BYU

(10-02-2023 09:50 AM)ken d Wrote:  

(10-02-2023 09:44 AM)We Are the Dukes of JMU Wrote:  Compared to other JMU fans, I'm a little less angry about being ineligible this year. A rule's a rule and I expected it to be applied to us. The rule is archaic and should be changed, but it's the rule for now.

All that said, I'm not sure if JMU is completely ineligible for the NY6. It's an extreme long shot scenario that absolutely won't happen, but technically could happen. A bunch of things would need to fall into place:

1. JMU would need to finish the season undefeated and the highest ranked G5.
2. The SBC would need to declare JMU eligible for the SBC championship game. This can be done at the discretion of the conference.
3. There would need to not be enough deserving teams to fill all bowl spots. At that point, 6-win teams in their second year of transition become eligible in order of 3-year APR average. JMU has a higher APR than JSU or SHSU, so we're first in line for a bowl.
4. This is where things become gray. The NCAA bylaws state that all deserving teams must be selected before JMU/JSU/SHSU can be invited, but the rules are silent on the order in which bowls must make their selections. The question of whether JMU will be invited to a bowl will be answered before bowls make their selections. In theory, the NY6 bowl could simply defer its selection then select JMU on the basis that they are the highest ranked G5 champion.

Again, it's incredibly far fetched, but may technically be possible.

It would seem like #2 is a decision the conference could have and should have (and maybe had) made before the season started.

Your post raises an interesting question for me about what the NCAA transition rules say. Do they say transitioning teams are ineligible for a bowl game, or ineligible for post season play? And, if it's the latter, is a CCG considered post-season or regular season? If it's post-season then maybe the SBC doesn't have the discretion you assume.

The CCG is an exempt regular season game. Most (all?) conferences have rules that preclude bowl-ineligible teams from participating in their CCG.

Whether JMU is eligible for a bowl should be known a week before the CCG. But for competitive fairness they should solidify such a contingency now.

I'd go ahead and let them play. There isn't a hypothetical situation where they are going to knock a western team out of the G5 slot. Even if they are ineligible it doesn't hurt anything to let them play in it

(10-02-2023 09:20 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(10-01-2023 08:57 PM)BullsFanInTX Wrote:  I'm biased, but darkhorse contender: USF. USF lost to Alabama in a close game (was 10-3 with 30 seconds left in game), and essentially crushed Alabama's offense (5 sacks and many TFL's). This loss won't hurt USF, and I predict will actually help USF at the end of year. The loss to WKU was a bad one though.

I am biased too, but I think the loss to WKU sinks us.

Hope you are correct, though.

We made some serious coaching blunders against Ohio State and lost @Troy by 3. We are favored in the rest of our games (coin toss vs Liberty).

https://masseyratings.com/cf2023/8761

USF losing to us (game was closer than the final score) obviously won't help them, but we shouldn't end up being a huge thorn either. Tulane nabbed it last year with a loss to USM. Crazier things have happened. Right now I think the MWC is in the driver's seat though.


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(10-02-2023 08:12 PM)freshtop Wrote:  

(10-02-2023 09:20 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(10-01-2023 08:57 PM)BullsFanInTX Wrote:  I'm biased, but darkhorse contender: USF. USF lost to Alabama in a close game (was 10-3 with 30 seconds left in game), and essentially crushed Alabama's offense (5 sacks and many TFL's). This loss won't hurt USF, and I predict will actually help USF at the end of year. The loss to WKU was a bad one though.

I am biased too, but I think the loss to WKU sinks us.

Hope you are correct, though.

We made some serious coaching blunders against Ohio State and lost @Troy by 3. We are favored in the rest of our games (coin toss vs Liberty).

https://masseyratings.com/cf2023/8761

USF losing to us (game was closer than the final score) obviously won't help them, but we shouldn't end up being a huge thorn either. Tulane nabbed it last year with a loss to USM. Crazier things have happened. Right now I think the MWC is in the driver's seat though.


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Yeah, the final score made it look like a blowout, but it really wasn't. WKU scored 10 points in the final 3 minutes of game, including a fumble recovery for TD. USF rushed for almost 400 yards in the game. It was also USF's first game with a new coach.

(10-02-2023 07:11 PM)solohawks Wrote:  I'd go ahead and let them play. There isn't a hypothetical situation where they are going to knock a western team out of the G5 slot. Even if they are ineligible it doesn't hurt anything to let them play in it

Texas State if they stayed at 1 or 2 losses could feasibly make some noise.

Other than that USA probably ruined their chances with CMU, Troy has an extreme outside shot, no P5 victory though.

(10-01-2023 09:28 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  AP Polls:
#24 Fresno State
#30 Tulane
#31 Air Force
#36 JMU

Coaches Poll:
#24 Fresno State
#29 Air Force
#33 Wyoming
#35 Tulane
#36 JMU
#39 Marshall
#41 Ohio U.
#42 Memphis

As an Ohio fan I give us a good chance at winning out but no chance at the NY6. Might be able to finish in the Top 25 though.

MWC is in the driver seat, then if that fails SBC or possibly AAC since its hollowed out so teams might not beat up on Memphis and Tulane.

There are now 2 G5 schools still not have a loss left.
Air Force
Liberty

Memphis, Tulane and SMU are still in it for a NY 6 bowl.
Liberty and Western Kentucky are still in it for the NY 6, but Liberty needs to be rank in the top 4 to get into the playoffs.
Miami, Ohio and Toledo are still in the hunt for a NY 6 bowl.
Air Force, Wyoming, UNLV and Fresno State are still in the running for a NY 6 bowl. Air Force is the much better chance to get into the playoffs.
JMU could still get a bowl invite this year if there is not enough teams with a 6-6 record.
Georgia Southern, Marshall, App State, Georgia State. Troy, La.-Lafayette and Texas State are still in the hunt for the NY 6 bowl.

(10-08-2023 04:57 AM)DavidSt Wrote:  There are now 2 G5 schools still not have a loss left.
Air Force
Liberty

Memphis, Tulane and SMU are still in it for a NY 6 bowl.
Liberty and Western Kentucky are still in it for the NY 6, but Liberty needs to be rank in the top 4 to get into the playoffs.
Miami, Ohio and Toledo are still in the hunt for a NY 6 bowl.
Air Force, Wyoming, UNLV and Fresno State are still in the running for a NY 6 bowl. Air Force is the much better chance to get into the playoffs.
JMU could still get a bowl invite this year if there is not enough teams with a 6-6 record.
Georgia Southern, Marshall, App State, Georgia State. Troy, La.-Lafayette and Texas State are still in the hunt for the NY 6 bowl.

There are 3 schools in the G5 conferences who have not loss yet. Just because JMU is not regular bowl eligible doesn't mean they somehow lost.

G5 contenders (not including those who are ineligible):

Undefeated:
Air Force (MW)
Liberty (CUSA)

One-loss:
Memphis (AAC)
Tulane (AAC)
Wyoming (MW)
Fresno St. (MW)
UNLV (MW)
Marshall (Sun Belt)
Georgia State (Sun Belt)
Georgia Southern (Sun Belt)
Toledo (MAC)
Ohio (MAC)
Miami (MAC)

Two-losses:
SMU (AAC)
App St. (Sun Belt)
Troy (Sun Belt)
Louisiana (Sun Belt)
Texas St. (Sun Belt)
WKU (CUSA)

Everybody else is out. I don't believe a three-loss G5 champ has ever gotten a NY6 bowl bid.

(10-08-2023 12:45 PM)shizzle787 Wrote:  G5 contenders (not including those who are ineligible):

Undefeated:
Air Force (MW)
Liberty (CUSA)

One-loss:
Memphis (AAC)
Tulane (AAC)
Wyoming (MW)
Fresno St. (MW)
UNLV (MW)
Marshall (Sun Belt)
Georgia State (Sun Belt)
Georgia Southern (Sun Belt)
Toledo (MAC)
Ohio (MAC)
Miami (MAC)

Two-losses:
SMU (AAC)
App St. (Sun Belt)
Troy (Sun Belt)
Louisiana (Sun Belt)
Texas St. (Sun Belt)
WKU (CUSA)

Everybody else is out. I don't believe a three-loss G5 champ has ever gotten a NY6 bowl bid.

Tulane with three loses last year, I think.

(10-08-2023 02:51 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  

(10-08-2023 12:45 PM)shizzle787 Wrote:  G5 contenders (not including those who are ineligible):

Undefeated:
Air Force (MW)
Liberty (CUSA)

One-loss:
Memphis (AAC)
Tulane (AAC)
Wyoming (MW)
Fresno St. (MW)
UNLV (MW)
Marshall (Sun Belt)
Georgia State (Sun Belt)
Georgia Southern (Sun Belt)
Toledo (MAC)
Ohio (MAC)
Miami (MAC)

Two-losses:
SMU (AAC)
App St. (Sun Belt)
Troy (Sun Belt)
Louisiana (Sun Belt)
Texas St. (Sun Belt)
WKU (CUSA)

Everybody else is out. I don't believe a three-loss G5 champ has ever gotten a NY6 bowl bid.

Tulane with three loses last year, I think.

They were a 2 loss team (Southern Miss and UCF)

(10-08-2023 12:45 PM)shizzle787 Wrote:  G5 contenders (not including those who are ineligible):

Undefeated:
Air Force (MW)
Liberty (CUSA)

One-loss:
Memphis (AAC)
Tulane (AAC)
Wyoming (MW)
Fresno St. (MW)
UNLV (MW)
Marshall (Sun Belt)
Georgia State (Sun Belt)
Georgia Southern (Sun Belt)
Toledo (MAC)
Ohio (MAC)
Miami (MAC)

Two-losses:
SMU (AAC)
App St. (Sun Belt)
Troy (Sun Belt)
Louisiana (Sun Belt)
Texas St. (Sun Belt)
WKU (CUSA)

Everybody else is out. I don't believe a three-loss G5 champ has ever gotten a NY6 bowl bid.

Agree with this list. And conference play will sort all of it out.
I really don't think Liberty will get it unless the MWC, SBC, AAC champs all have 3 losses. Their SOS is horrendous.

It's still there for the taking. Just gotta play solid ball, and win your conference. Hopefully an undefeated SBC championship, and VT win will do it for Marshall, and the stupid 48-41 loss at NC State won't keep them out. There's a lot of football left to be played.

(10-08-2023 12:45 PM)shizzle787 Wrote:  G5 contenders (not including those who are ineligible):

Undefeated:
Air Force (MW)
Liberty (CUSA)

One-loss:
Memphis (AAC)
Tulane (AAC)
Wyoming (MW)
Fresno St. (MW)
UNLV (MW)
Marshall (Sun Belt)
Georgia State (Sun Belt)
Georgia Southern (Sun Belt)
Toledo (MAC)
Ohio (MAC)
Miami (MAC)

Two-losses:
SMU (AAC)
App St. (Sun Belt)
Troy (Sun Belt)
Louisiana (Sun Belt)
Texas St. (Sun Belt)
WKU (CUSA)

Everybody else is out. I don't believe a three-loss G5 champ has ever gotten a NY6 bowl bid.

JMU and Jacksonville St. are not eligible yet?

But I do agree with you. One of the 5 champions will have 2 or less losses. I don't agree with the earlier posters that think its down to 4 or 5 schools already. All of these teams are capable of losing multiple games. But I don't think all of them will. There are enough 1 and 2 loss teams left, even with ccg upsets, I don't think it will drop down to a 3 loss team.

Top G5 Champ %
1) 36.75% Air Force
2) 17.52% Liberty
3) 12.29% Wyoming
4) 12.05% James Madison (if eligible)
5) 4.22% Tulane
6) 3.36% Memphis
7) 2.87% Ga Southern
8) 2.57% Fresno St
9) 1.7% WKU
10) 1.27% Miami(OH)
11) 1.14% Troy
12) 1.12% Marshall

Remember when Boise St was always in contention? Seems like forever ago.

(10-08-2023 04:45 PM)Crayton Wrote:  Top G5 Champ %
1) 36.75% Air Force
2) 17.52% Liberty
3) 12.29% Wyoming
4) 12.05% James Madison (if eligible)
5) 4.22% Tulane
6) 3.36% Memphis
7) 2.87% Ga Southern
8) 2.57% Fresno St
9) 1.7% WKU
10) 1.27% Miami(OH)
11) 1.14% Troy
12) 1.12% Marshall

AF's percent is WAY too high. The teams that consist of their 5 wins have a combined 6 wins between them. Their remaining schedule is brutal. 6 of their final 7 games could easily be losses. I agree they control their own destiny, but their destiny is through a brutal schedule, of which just a couple of losses could lock them out of the CCG.

Tulane/Memphis combo is too low. They both play each other this week. If Tulane wins, they will likely cruise to the CCG. If Memphis wins they have a tough game with SMU but the other games should be favored. The other G4 conferences are lucky Memphis and Tulane play each other in the season, because if they both made the CCG at 1 loss, then there almost certainly your access winner.

The MWC teams all have a somewhat tough several teams left. Boise St can also play spoiler in that conference with their 3 OOC losses. App St, Buffalo, Western Kentucky are several teams poised to be spoilers as well. Teams that have lost a couple of games at least in the OOC, but are perfect in conference can lock teams out of the CCG, and by default, the access bowl.

Rules about which teams a conference can put into their CCG may be different for different conferences. I havent really taken that into account. But if it must be the top 2 conference teams as defined by tiebreaker rules, etc, then there could certainly be some spoilers this year.