(11-20-2023 04:15 PM)Yosef181 Wrote:  

(11-20-2023 03:55 PM)bill dazzle Wrote:  

(11-20-2023 03:27 PM)Yosef181 Wrote:  Just throwing this out there: If Troy wins the Sun Belt Championship, as many as 8 of their 11 wins will be against teams going bowling.

The most wins Toledo can get against teams going bowling is 7.
For Liberty, the max is 6.
For Tulane, the max is 5.

When you look at it that way, Tulane's schedule this year is really weak.

This seems a rather modest argument, Y-181, when you consider all the average teams (solid and competitive, yes, but still average) in the Belt.

Now JMU and Troy are strong. I'll give you that. Either would be as qualified and deserving as Tulane. If Troy get the NY6 bid, congrats. No doubt.

As noted in previous posts, I'm not particularly impressed with either Belt football or AAC football this season.

I didn't actually argue anything. Mostly posting the numbers, and making an observation/inference from them.

I would argue that the "average" performance of a Sun Belt team is better than the average performance of a Mountain West or AAC team this year. Why do I think that? First, because the Sun Belt is ahead of both in Colley and Massey.

Colley: https://www.colleyrankings.com/curconf.html
Massey: https://masseyratings.com/cf/fbs/ratings?c=1

Second, because the Sun Belt has a better record in FBS non-conference play:

Sun Belt: 20-22
Mountain West: 14-23
AAC: 11-31

Because of that, we have more teams becoming bowl eligible ("average" seasons with 6+ wins). I find it funny, reading some people on this board trying to reason through how that's actually a bad thing, to win more.

"Argument" or "point" ... rather similar terms. But let's say you were simply making a point. That's fine.

As to your point, I feel Belt football has been collectively better than AAC football this season. Full credit given for that. JMU and Troy are strong. And then there are 10 other solid teams (an impressive number).

The AAC offers Tulane and SMU at the top (and those are two very good, but not great, teams) and then five solid teams (a so-so number). The league is down. No question.

Regardless, it simply seems both the Belt and AAC are average in football this year (as are the other three G leagues). So the fact that the Belt has been better than the AAC is not particularly noteworthy (and I would say the same thing if the roles were reversed), given it's a bit useless to compare mediocrity in anything. For example, I'm not going to compare two average hair metal bands of the 1980s.

Now, if JMU had gone undefeated, if App and Coastal had each finished with nine wins (instead of seven or eight) and if the AAC ends with only five teams at .500 or better (instead of potentially seven) ... such results would hugely differentiate the Belt from the AAC.

Bottom line: I'm not as impressed with the Belt in football this season as you are (which is fine). But it's been better than the AAC. So I'll give you that, no question.

Tulane is favored by 3 points hosting UTSA this week. Vegas doesn't think highly of Tulane and neither should anyone else.

Troy could go 11-2, beat 8 bowl eligible teams and still not have a single top 60 win.

(11-20-2023 04:38 PM)JSchmack Wrote:  BTW, hypothetically, WHERE would Tulane be ranked had they won that game?

Assume for a second that Pratt plays, gets the QB sneak with 6:49 to go, puts it in the end zone with 3 minutes left; With a four point lead, Tulane defends the pass instead of the run and gets the 3 and out they got (after the IRL onside) and wins the game.

Ole Miss slides to 8-3 but would be ranked somewhere in the 17-22 range. An 11-0 Tulane with that win is ranked WHERE relative to Oregon, Texas, Alabama, Louisville, Missouri, Penn State, Oklahoma?

Where would Tulane be if they lost to Tulsa, ECU, Rice, or North Texas? All games they could have lost.

(11-20-2023 03:53 PM)Side.Show.Joe Wrote:  A lot of you are just posting what you hope or want to happen. But I don't think those scenarios are logical.

The Coaches" Poll is already setting the stage for the AAC. This week Tulane is ranked #18 & SMU is ranked #25. No other G5 programs with a shot are ranked at all. And Tulane is the only non-autonomous program currently in the CFP Poll. The winner of the AAC Championship Game on ABC will earn the access bowl.

I'm sorry, but when did Liberty join the P5 or get kicked out of the Coaches Poll? Because they are ranked #22 in that poll & the AP poll, so no, it is not just Tulane & SMU in that poll guaranteeing an AAC rep...

If your point is that they are the only two with a fellow conference member in that poll, then sure, but let's not forget that SMU isn't even in the AP Poll, while Toledo is...

I think that Tulane is in the drivers seat. If they lose a game, then not so much. Then it could be SMU. It UTSA wins the next two weeks, then it becomes confusing. Can you put a 3 loss team over an undefeated one in Liberty? I don't think so.

Toledo is in a tough spot. They have one loss, and they have 3 common opponents with Liberty. Buffalo, Bowling Green, and UMass. Liberty did better against all three.

With JMU ineligible, the only team that may have a say is Troy in the Sun Belt. The problem is Troy losing by 4 touchdowns to Kanas State earlier. That will make the committee hesitant.

Until tomorrow night, only Tulane is a known factor in the CFP committee's race for the NY6 bowl. Logic based on current released polls would say that there are 2-3 others that could also be in the running (Liberty, SMU, Toledo), but it's hard to say for sure who actually is until the committee reveals their Top 25 for this week.

Having seen how different their Top 25 tends to be from the others', we could see none or more than those 2-3 appear, & then we can all be mad together

(11-20-2023 04:47 PM)Sparty Baby 84 Wrote:  Tulane is favored by 3 points hosting UTSA this week. Vegas doesn't think highly of Tulane and neither should anyone else.

Tulane is a solid, competitive club — but not as good as last year's Green Wave team. UTSA could easily win.

You have previously posted harshly about Tulane multiple times. Given you are seemingly new to the board, I do have to wonder about your motivations. Something feels odd. But I might be unfairly judging you.

You do seem to know your stuff overall (some of the nastiness notwithstanding). Credit given for that.

(11-20-2023 03:53 PM)Side.Show.Joe Wrote:  A lot of you are just posting what you hope or want to happen. But I don't think those scenarios are logical.

The Coaches" Poll is already setting the stage for the AAC. This week Tulane is ranked #18 & SMU is ranked #25. No other G5 programs with a shot are ranked at all. And Tulane is the only non-autonomous program currently in the CFP Poll. The winner of the AAC Championship Game on ABC will earn the access bowl.

The Coaches' poll is probably the best proxy for the committee. Not exactly a match, but the closest we have.

(11-20-2023 05:45 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(11-20-2023 03:53 PM)Side.Show.Joe Wrote:  A lot of you are just posting what you hope or want to happen. But I don't think those scenarios are logical.

The Coaches" Poll is already setting the stage for the AAC. This week Tulane is ranked #18 & SMU is ranked #25. No other G5 programs with a shot are ranked at all. And Tulane is the only non-autonomous program currently in the CFP Poll. The winner of the AAC Championship Game on ABC will earn the access bowl.

The Coaches' poll is probably the best proxy for the committee. Not exactly a match, but the closest we have.

I tend to agree.

(11-20-2023 05:18 PM)bill dazzle Wrote:  

(11-20-2023 04:47 PM)Sparty Baby 84 Wrote:  Tulane is favored by 3 points hosting UTSA this week. Vegas doesn't think highly of Tulane and neither should anyone else.

Tulane is a solid, competitive club — but not as good as last year's Green Wave team. UTSA could easily win.

You have previously posted harshly about Tulane multiple times. Given you are seemingly new to the board, I do have to wonder about your motivations. Something feels odd. But I might be unfairly judging you.

You do seem to know your stuff overall (some of the nastiness notwithstanding). Credit given for that.

Tulane (and American Conference) honks keep denying the reality that Tulane isn't any good. Since my pointing this out is getting on people's nerves, I will leave Tulane alone and allow UTSA to prove me right about them once and for all.

This week I might switch to bashing Tennessee. There is no reason on earth why they should be ranked by anyone, much less be ranked by a committee dedicated to determining the 25 best teams. Tennessee has done arguably less than Tulane and is demonstrably worse than Florida who Utah defeated without using the quarterback position. Is Utah ranked? For some reason they are not. It's probably the same reason the "selection committee" (note: they don't do their job well) has under-ranked Washington and is pretending like Missouri is a worldbeater. Note: Missouri survived the juggernauts of Florida, Middle Tennessee State, Memphis and Kansas State. The committee is treating Missouri as if they were the early 00's Saint Louis Rams.

Why? The SEC (which is a great conference) is extremely overprotected. The committee does this to justify rankings for SEC teams with "good wins." Missouri's best win is... #19 Kansas State on a 60+ yard field goal at the buzzer. Auburn played Georgia closer than Missouri did and Auburn, well, laughs, they literally would be third or fourth in Conference USA. Back to Tennessee...

Folks, tell me which game or games on Tennessee's resume suggests that they should CURRENTLY be ranked in the top 25...

(1-0) Tennessee defeats (3-8) Virginia at home by a score of 49-13.

Now, based on their year last year, and based on the fact Virginia is a (ugh, kind of) a P5, then sure, rank Tennessee in a very early poll based on this result.

(2-0) Tennessee defeats (FCS) Austin Peay at home by a score of 30-13.

This is a nothing result that demonstrates absolutely nothing.

(2-1) Tennessee loses at (5-6) Florida by a score of 29-16.

Okay, at this point Tennessee should not be ranked. I'm sure the pollsters kept them around 15 like they do with the Vols, Gators, Texas A&M, and Notre Dame whenever either one loses their first game (doesn't matter who the opponent is). Florida came into this game after getting dominated by a QB-less Utah so keep that in mind as we continue through the farce that is Tennessee's 2023-2024 season.

(3-1) Tennessee defeats (8-3) UTSA at home by a score of 45-14.

This is Tennessee's best win of the season (and will still be unless they win their bowl game). However, UTSA came into this game with losses to Houston and Army, so it's not like Tennessee set the world on fire here. That said, for the reason that they blew out last year's C*USA champ, sure even I might put them generously in the range of #23-25.

(4-1) Tennessee defeats (5-6) South Carolina at home by a score of 41-20.

Now we're getting somewhere. I will place them at #20 for the impressive margin of victory over a conference opponent who has a good, proven QB.

(5-1) Tennessee defeats (7-4) Texas A&M at home by a score of 20-13.

Is this their best win? It might be. It's this or UTSA. Based on the fact that the Aggies played Alabama close the previous week, I'm going to put Tennessee at #16. And this is as good as they will get from me all year.

(5-2) Tennessee loses to (10-1) Alabama on the road by a score of 34-20.

Tennessee is a much worse team on the road. I watched this game and Tennessee did absolutely nothing in the second half. Alabama was still playing close games at this point, so getting beat by double digits and choking away a huge lead is bad. I will put Tennessee at #21 because Bama is Bama and nobody actually thought they'd win.

(6-2) Tennessee defeats (6-5) Kentucky on the road by a score of 33-27.

Kentucky's QB couldn't hit sand if he fell off a camel, but at least Tennessee showed some heart on the road against a team that beat the same Florida team that earlier embarrassed Tennessee. I will bump Tennessee up to #18 for this, but I'm not sure why. I guess I will give them +3 for winning a non-Vanderbilt SEC road game.

(7-2) Tennessee defeats (2-9) UConn at home by a score of doesn't matter to doesn't matter.

There is no valid takeway from this game. This is Tennessee's second FCS opponent as far as I'm concerned and one of many late season SEC tune-ups because ESPN doesn't see the value in making the SEC play 9 conference games. So, I'm keeping Tennessee at #18 even though in real life the pollsters I think had them around #11 at this point or something similarly insane.

(7-3) Tennessee loses to (9-2) Missouri on the road by a score of 36-7.

Is Missouri a great team? No. Ask Middle Tennessee State or Memphis if you disagree. Since I had them at #18, and they got blown out worse than two of their non-Vanderbilt in-staters, and because I don't feel any need to give Georgia a ranked win, I am taking them out of the rankings for this result. This was a complete no-show and I could definitely see any of New Mexico State, Liberty, Toledo, ect. (even SMU and yes, Tulane too) doing much better in this same scenario. I have them unranked at this point, but if you have been following along and disagree with my takes on the Vols, put them around #24-25 if you are being fair and objective.

(7-4) Tennessee loses to (11-0) Georgia at home by a score of 38-10.

Yeah, folks, you have to unrank them at this point if you haven't already done so. I think Georgia is going to three-peat, but if this is all Tennessee can offer in front of Dolly Parton, Peyton Manning and 100,000+ then good friggin bye. South Carolina, Auburn, Vanderbilt, Florida and Missouri all put up a more respectable showing against Georgia and some of that lot did it in Athens. By any standard of objective measurement, there is no logically discernible reason why Tennessee should be ranked at this point.

However...

Coaches #25
AP #23

Lets hope legendary football minds Condoleeza Rice and company do the right thing and drop Tennessee from the CFB rankings. They will probably not, and they will probably continue their insane punishment on Liberty, Utah, NC State, Clemson (yes, they are a top 25 team if you play this same game with Clemson), Kansas, and of course James Madison by having these fine teams sit behind sorry ass, full of quit in their hearts, hilarious QB play from a former third-stringer who couldn't start over two meh QB's at Michigan, good for nothing (7-4) Tennessee who can't even try hard in front of their own dedicated fans who throw mustard containers and golf balls on the field when things don't go their way against the team whose coach rightfully and permanently made them a stepping stone program.

(11-20-2023 01:35 PM)Just Joe Wrote:  

(11-20-2023 12:57 PM)Gemofthehills Wrote:  

(11-20-2023 12:31 PM)Just Joe Wrote:  

(11-20-2023 11:16 AM)Gemofthehills Wrote:  

(11-20-2023 09:51 AM)HP-TBDPITL Wrote:  You are just focusing on records. That's more what the AP does. The CFP committee will not look like the AP poll. It will take into account the quality games.

Liberty's OOC was UMass (3-8), Bowling Green (6-5), Buffalo (3-8) and ODU (5-6). They are 1-0 in Top 50 games (NM State).

SMU's OOC was Oklahoma (9-2), TCU (5-6), La Tech (3-9) and Prairie View (FCS).
They are 1-1 in Top 50 games, so you can say Liberty is ahead of SMU AT THIS POINT. The question is if SMU beats Tulane for the championship, does that win and better overall Quality games leapfrog them over Liberty. I believe the committee will do just that, not taking anything away from beating NM State twice, but just that SMU played two Big 12 teams in the OOC rather than 2 MAC teams.

No Im focusing on who has the best team. Not worried about record or schedule like most on here.

How exactly do you determine "best team" without factoring SOS?

What does SOS have to do with having the best team? If SOS was the factor then schedule Alabama and UGA every game get beat every game but be considered by some as the best.

Because if they aren't beating good teams, which they aren't outside of NMSU and Jax St how can you tell? They narrowly beat a 4-7 MT team and a Sam Houston team that may be the worst in FBS this year. If Liberty was steamrolling a weak schedule maybe that's another discussion. But they haven't done that consistently. Congrats if they go undefeated but it isn't getting them near an NY6 unless there's a lot of chaos.

Is that the same Middle team who only lost by 4 to a Top 10 Missouri? Also lost to Bama and only has one other out of conference loss. Not easy to win in CUSA as some other conferences.

Liberty won by more vs WKU than a good troy state team.
Liberty won by more vs ODU than a good JMU and beat a good App team
Liberty won by more vs Buffalo than a good Toledo team

Liberty's performance is not bad and getting better as the season progresses. This is with a new staff coming in this year.

As of right now Liberty is the best G5 team playing. NMSU will have a chance to prove me wrong.

(11-20-2023 06:13 PM)Gemofthehills Wrote:  

(11-20-2023 01:35 PM)Just Joe Wrote:  

(11-20-2023 12:57 PM)Gemofthehills Wrote:  

(11-20-2023 12:31 PM)Just Joe Wrote:  

(11-20-2023 11:16 AM)Gemofthehills Wrote:  No Im focusing on who has the best team. Not worried about record or schedule like most on here.

How exactly do you determine "best team" without factoring SOS?

What does SOS have to do with having the best team? If SOS was the factor then schedule Alabama and UGA every game get beat every game but be considered by some as the best.

Because if they aren't beating good teams, which they aren't outside of NMSU and Jax St how can you tell? They narrowly beat a 4-7 MT team and a Sam Houston team that may be the worst in FBS this year. If Liberty was steamrolling a weak schedule maybe that's another discussion. But they haven't done that consistently. Congrats if they go undefeated but it isn't getting them near an NY6 unless there's a lot of chaos.

Is that the same Middle team who only lost by 4 to a Top 10 Missouri? Also lost to Bama and only has one other out of conference loss. Not easy to win in CUSA as some other conferences.

Liberty won by more vs WKU than a good troy state team.
Liberty won by more vs ODU than a good JMU and beat a good App team
Liberty won by more vs Buffalo than a good Toledo team

Liberty's performance is not bad and getting better as the season progresses. This is with a new staff coming in this year.

As of right now Liberty is the best G5 team playing. NMSU will have a chance to prove me wrong.

Liberty should rightfully be getting the same "undefeated = ranked" discount that many a G5 have received in the past (Hawaii, Northern Illinois, Western Michigan... and not even just those three who eventually played in a NY6 Bowl, but also all the others like them who were easily ranked in the top 25 at this very late point in the year).

Hell, I'm an atheist and even I would not only rank Liberty in the CFB, but I would have them as the highest eligible G5 and... hypothetically I might lay some money on them "if" they end up playing James Madison to settle that debate in Cuba, or wherever far away galaxy they are going to bounce JMU and Liberty to this bowl season.

(11-20-2023 06:07 PM)Sparty Baby 84 Wrote:  

(11-20-2023 05:18 PM)bill dazzle Wrote:  

(11-20-2023 04:47 PM)Sparty Baby 84 Wrote:  Tulane is favored by 3 points hosting UTSA this week. Vegas doesn't think highly of Tulane and neither should anyone else.

Tulane is a solid, competitive club — but not as good as last year's Green Wave team. UTSA could easily win.

You have previously posted harshly about Tulane multiple times. Given you are seemingly new to the board, I do have to wonder about your motivations. Something feels odd. But I might be unfairly judging you.

You do seem to know your stuff overall (some of the nastiness notwithstanding). Credit given for that.

Tulane (and American Conference) honks keep denying the reality that Tulane isn't any good. Since my pointing this out is getting on people's nerves, I will leave Tulane alone and allow UTSA to prove me right about them once and for all.

This week I might switch to bashing Tennessee. There is no reason on earth why they should be ranked by anyone, much less be ranked by a committee dedicated to determining the 25 best teams. Tennessee has done arguably less than Tulane and is demonstrably worse than Florida who Utah defeated without using the quarterback position. Is Utah ranked? For some reason they are not. It's probably the same reason the "selection committee" (note: they don't do their job well) has under-ranked Washington and is pretending like Missouri is a worldbeater. Note: Missouri survived the juggernauts of Florida, Middle Tennessee State, Memphis and Kansas State. The committee is treating Missouri as if they were the early 00's Saint Louis Rams.

Why? The SEC (which is a great conference) is extremely overprotected. The committee does this to justify rankings for SEC teams with "good wins." Missouri's best win is... #19 Kansas State on a 60+ yard field goal at the buzzer. Auburn played Georgia closer than Missouri did and Auburn, well, laughs, they literally would be third or fourth in Conference USA. Back to Tennessee...

Folks, tell me which game or games on Tennessee's resume suggests that they should CURRENTLY be ranked in the top 25...

(1-0) Tennessee defeats (3-8) Virginia at home by a score of 49-13.

Now, based on their year last year, and based on the fact Virginia is a (ugh, kind of) a P5, then sure, rank Tennessee in a very early poll based on this result.

(2-0) Tennessee defeats (FCS) Austin Peay at home by a score of 30-13.

This is a nothing result that demonstrates absolutely nothing.

(2-1) Tennessee loses at (5-6) Florida by a score of 29-16.

Okay, at this point Tennessee should not be ranked. I'm sure the pollsters kept them around 15 like they do with the Vols, Gators, Texas A&M, and Notre Dame whenever either one loses their first game (doesn't matter who the opponent is). Florida came into this game after getting dominated by a QB-less Utah so keep that in mind as we continue through the farce that is Tennessee's 2023-2024 season.

(3-1) Tennessee defeats (8-3) UTSA at home by a score of 45-14.

This is Tennessee's best win of the season (and will still be unless they win their bowl game). However, UTSA came into this game with losses to Houston and Army, so it's not like Tennessee set the world on fire here. That said, for the reason that they blew out last year's C*USA champ, sure even I might put them generously in the range of #23-25.

(4-1) Tennessee defeats (5-6) South Carolina at home by a score of 41-20.

Now we're getting somewhere. I will place them at #20 for the impressive margin of victory over a conference opponent who has a good, proven QB.

(5-1) Tennessee defeats (7-4) Texas A&M at home by a score of 20-13.

Is this their best win? It might be. It's this or UTSA. Based on the fact that the Aggies played Alabama close the previous week, I'm going to put Tennessee at #16. And this is as good as they will get from me all year.

(5-2) Tennessee loses to (10-1) Alabama on the road by a score of 34-20.

Tennessee is a much worse team on the road. I watched this game and Tennessee did absolutely nothing in the second half. Alabama was still playing close games at this point, so getting beat by double digits and choking away a huge lead is bad. I will put Tennessee at #21 because Bama is Bama and nobody actually thought they'd win.

(6-2) Tennessee defeats (6-5) Kentucky on the road by a score of 33-27.

Kentucky's QB couldn't hit sand if he fell off a camel, but at least Tennessee showed some heart on the road against a team that beat the same Florida team that earlier embarrassed Tennessee. I will bump Tennessee up to #18 for this, but I'm not sure why. I guess I will give them +3 for winning a non-Vanderbilt SEC road game.

(7-2) Tennessee defeats (2-9) UConn at home by a score of doesn't matter to doesn't matter.

There is no valid takeway from this game. This is Tennessee's second FCS opponent as far as I'm concerned and one of many late season SEC tune-ups because ESPN doesn't see the value in making the SEC play 9 conference games. So, I'm keeping Tennessee at #18 even though in real life the pollsters I think had them around #11 at this point or something similarly insane.

(7-3) Tennessee loses to (9-2) Missouri on the road by a score of 36-7.

Is Missouri a great team? No. Ask Middle Tennessee State or Memphis if you disagree. Since I had them at #18, and they got blown out worse than two of their non-Vanderbilt in-staters, and because I don't feel any need to give Georgia a ranked win, I am taking them out of the rankings for this result. This was a complete no-show and I could definitely see any of New Mexico State, Liberty, Toledo, ect. (even SMU and yes, Tulane too) doing much better in this same scenario. I have them unranked at this point, but if you have been following along and disagree with my takes on the Vols, put them around #24-25 if you are being fair and objective.

(7-4) Tennessee loses to (11-0) Georgia at home by a score of 38-10.

Yeah, folks, you have to unrank them at this point if you haven't already done so. I think Georgia is going to three-peat, but if this is all Tennessee can offer in front of Dolly Parton, Peyton Manning and 100,000+ then good friggin bye. South Carolina, Auburn, Vanderbilt, Florida and Missouri all put up a more respectable showing against Georgia and some of that lot did it in Athens. By any standard of objective measurement, there is no logically discernible reason why Tennessee should be ranked at this point.

However...

Coaches #25
AP #23

Lets hope legendary football minds Condoleeza Rice and company do the right thing and drop Tennessee from the CFB rankings. They will probably not, and they will probably continue their insane punishment on Liberty, Utah, NC State, Clemson (yes, they are a top 25 team if you play this same game with Clemson), Kansas, and of course James Madison by having these fine teams sit behind sorry ass, full of quit in their hearts, hilarious QB play from a former third-stringer who couldn't start over two meh QB's at Michigan, good for nothing (7-4) Tennessee who can't even try hard in front of their own dedicated fans who throw mustard containers and golf balls on the field when things don't go their way against the team whose coach rightfully and permanently made them a stepping stone program.

I don't disagree with you. Overall, you make lots of valid and accurate points about both Tulane and Tennessee. It simply seems odd to contend as you do "Tulane isn't any good." When you do so, I wonder if you have some ulterior motive (i.e., you perhaps have an odd, even malicious, disdain Tulane for some reason).

Now if you posted this: "Tulane clearly has some good players and a fine coach. Lots of those players were on last year's team, which looked strong at times. But this year's team has no major wins and seems very overrated, so much so that I could see UTSA rather soundly beating Tulane."

That approach (and word choice) seems reasonable, logical and fair.

But when you use terms such as "garbage" to describe Tulane ... my "what's this poster up to?" radar goes off. I've been reading this board since 2011 and have always been suspicious of posters who trash other schools with a level of nastiness. To be fair, this is a message board and some folks like to talk trash. Maybe that's all it is with you, SB-84.

Again, I feel you've brought a lot to the table during the brief time you've posted. You clearly put lots of thought into your posts and know your stuff.

(11-20-2023 04:16 PM)JSchmack Wrote:  

(11-20-2023 03:45 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  IMO, Tulane is overrated by the CFP. Sagarin has them at #52, while the Massey Composite has them at #31. Based on the really soft schedule played, and their performance in those games, IMO they aren't a top 25 team.

The fundamental flaw here is that you're conflating that who you play has any effect on HOW GOOD YOU ARE. It doesn't. If the Golden State Warriors played Grambling's schedule last season (the SWAC was 20-113 OOC), they'd be #360 of 363 in SOS... but still the Golden State Warriors and probably go undefeated because they have 13 NBA guys.


Tulane's computer numbers are getting hammered because they (a) don't take Pratt's injury missing the Ole Miss game into account and (b) they took a knee instead of punching it in three times in the last four weeks.

They're not racking up huge yardage and points when they're running 5-8 minutes off the clock and going victory formation in the red zone. They easily could have just scored again to win by 10-14, but there's no reason to when the committee doesn't objectively rank G5 teams anyway. Like someone else said, it doesn't matter if Tulane's #9 or #23, the end result will be the same: the token G5 spot in the NY6.

(11-20-2023 03:45 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  I think the CFP feels more or less obligated to rank a G5 team this time of year, and are doing so based on the reputation of the AAC as the top G5 conference (it isn't, not this year, but still), and Tulane's goodwill earned from last year.

ELO reminds me a lot of the Colley-Matrix, which IMO tends to put a ton of bad G5 teams in the top 25. I believe ELO currently has six G5 teams in the top 25, all based on beating other bad G5 teams.

I am not sure if there is a single G5 with a win over a decent G5 team all year.

You believe the myth that anyone outside the cartel isn't as good as anyone in it. Obviously last year means nothing to assessing this year's resumes, but you know Tulane can hang with P5s because they TWO who finished in the Top 14 of the rankings last season.

(11-20-2023 03:45 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  IMO, the system is biased in favor of top G5 teams.

This is just non-sense. Teams with the best records in the sport are left out from COMPETING for a championship because in order to play a tough schedule, you have to have the ADs of P5s agree to schedule you, and those are the same people who sit on the committees that decide who competes for a championship. It's the definition of a cartel! And you think it FAVORS teams outside of it?

It favors "teams outside of the cartel having some artificially good records" as opposed to having everyone as an independent playing computer-generated schedules designed to make everyone's SOS as close to the same as they can get so we can objectively judge... sure, I'll buy that.

But it definitely hammers anyone outside the cartel who's ACTUALLY GOOD from having a chance to prove they're actually good; allowing the myth that anyone outside the cartel is automatically inferior to those inside the cartel.

I get the point about the Golden State Warriors and Grambling, but on the other hand, a team like my USF, a bad team, could play a bunch of Division II teams and probably (eh, OK, probably) go 12-0. Wouldn't mean we were any good, just that we played a bunch of really bad teams.

In this case, Tulane looks a lot more like USF to me than the Warriors. I am not impressed by their QB missing the Ole Miss game. Lots of teams have missing QBs all the time, and nobody cares. Next man up. And it's not like the Tulane QB is being mistaken for Patrick Mahomes, or even Jayden Daniels. He's an OK QB for a G5 QB, as far as I can tell.

Also, I could care less if Tulane could have punched it in a time or two vs the likes of ECU or Rice or Tulsa. These are bad teams that any good team would easily rout, IMO.

Bottom line for me is, if you are playing a pile of bad teams, like Tulane IMO has, and you are not beating them in any kind of dominant fashion, like Tulane, then what on earth makes me think they are any good? I look to the computers for help with that, and they all give a big thumbs down to Tulane.

Beyond that, I do think Tulane can hang with a lot of P5 teams. There are quite a few G5 teams that can do that. Doesn't mean you are a top-15, or top-25 team, IMO. Last year, Tulane did have a significant win, their win over future Big 12 champ Kansas State. That showed they had some quality. And, the AAC was the best G5 conference.

This year's Tulane team has nothing like that, it is mulching through a really weak AAC. And not mulching through very impressively. So IMO the human pollsters and CFP are doing them a favor ranking them in the top 25.

Two years ago, the "cartel" let a G5 team, easily IMO the most accomplished G5 team of the past 10 years, play in the playoffs. They got manhandled by Alabama, scored I think six points.

I just don't see any reason to allow G5 teams that post 10-11 wins vs bad G5 teams in to a playoff. We know their talent is really inferior, so how are they going to contend for a title? I just don't see the need for it. The best handful of teams are from the P5, always are, IMO.

(11-20-2023 04:59 PM)Keswick_Crusaders_Forever51 Wrote:  

(11-20-2023 03:53 PM)Side.Show.Joe Wrote:  A lot of you are just posting what you hope or want to happen. But I don't think those scenarios are logical.

The Coaches" Poll is already setting the stage for the AAC. This week Tulane is ranked #18 & SMU is ranked #25. No other G5 programs with a shot are ranked at all. And Tulane is the only non-autonomous program currently in the CFP Poll. The winner of the AAC Championship Game on ABC will earn the access bowl.

I'm sorry, but when did Liberty join the P5 or get kicked out of the Coaches Poll? Because they are ranked #22 in that poll & the AP poll, so no, it is not just Tulane & SMU in that poll guaranteeing an AAC rep...

If your point is that they are the only two with a fellow conference member in that poll, then sure, but let's not forget that SMU isn't even in the AP Poll, while Toledo is...

Yes, Liberty is in the Coaches' Poll, but as I stated... I don't think they have a shot. Liberty has zero quality wins on their schedule. Before the season even started, I said the quality of Liberty's schedule was going to be a problem. Now we are here. Liberty will beat UTEP, but no one on the selection committee will care. And this problem will only continue to persist for at least a few more years. Liberty isn't set to play a traditional power program until 2027 when they travel to Virginia Tech. Liberty needs to fluff up their schedule if they want real consideration.

As for the AP Poll, they are now irrelevant. The Coaches Poll is the closest we can get to the direction the committee will go. If the AAC Champ doesn't earn the access bowl slot, I'll be glad to come back on here and admit my mistake.

(11-20-2023 07:23 PM)Side.Show.Joe Wrote:  

(11-20-2023 04:59 PM)Keswick_Crusaders_Forever51 Wrote:  

(11-20-2023 03:53 PM)Side.Show.Joe Wrote:  A lot of you are just posting what you hope or want to happen. But I don't think those scenarios are logical.

The Coaches" Poll is already setting the stage for the AAC. This week Tulane is ranked #18 & SMU is ranked #25. No other G5 programs with a shot are ranked at all. And Tulane is the only non-autonomous program currently in the CFP Poll. The winner of the AAC Championship Game on ABC will earn the access bowl.

I'm sorry, but when did Liberty join the P5 or get kicked out of the Coaches Poll? Because they are ranked #22 in that poll & the AP poll, so no, it is not just Tulane & SMU in that poll guaranteeing an AAC rep...

If your point is that they are the only two with a fellow conference member in that poll, then sure, but let's not forget that SMU isn't even in the AP Poll, while Toledo is...

Yes, Liberty is in the Coaches' Poll, but as I stated... I don't think they have a shot. Liberty has zero quality wins on their schedule. Before the season even started, I said the quality of Liberty's schedule was going to be a problem. Now we are here. Liberty will beat UTEP, but no one on the selection committee will care. And this problem will only continue to persist for at least a few more years. Liberty isn't set to play a traditional power program until 2027 when they travel to Virginia Tech. Liberty needs to fluff up their schedule if they want real consideration.

As for the AP Poll, they are now irrelevant. The Coaches Poll is the closest we can get to the direction the committee will go. If the AAC Champ doesn't earn the access bowl slot, I'll be glad to come back on here and admit my mistake.

Yes, it's Tulane's to lose right now. But if they do lose it, the door could be open to another G5 champ.

(11-20-2023 07:56 PM)ken d Wrote:  

(11-20-2023 07:23 PM)Side.Show.Joe Wrote:  

(11-20-2023 04:59 PM)Keswick_Crusaders_Forever51 Wrote:  

(11-20-2023 03:53 PM)Side.Show.Joe Wrote:  A lot of you are just posting what you hope or want to happen. But I don't think those scenarios are logical.

The Coaches" Poll is already setting the stage for the AAC. This week Tulane is ranked #18 & SMU is ranked #25. No other G5 programs with a shot are ranked at all. And Tulane is the only non-autonomous program currently in the CFP Poll. The winner of the AAC Championship Game on ABC will earn the access bowl.

I'm sorry, but when did Liberty join the P5 or get kicked out of the Coaches Poll? Because they are ranked #22 in that poll & the AP poll, so no, it is not just Tulane & SMU in that poll guaranteeing an AAC rep...

If your point is that they are the only two with a fellow conference member in that poll, then sure, but let's not forget that SMU isn't even in the AP Poll, while Toledo is...

Yes, Liberty is in the Coaches' Poll, but as I stated... I don't think they have a shot. Liberty has zero quality wins on their schedule. Before the season even started, I said the quality of Liberty's schedule was going to be a problem. Now we are here. Liberty will beat UTEP, but no one on the selection committee will care. And this problem will only continue to persist for at least a few more years. Liberty isn't set to play a traditional power program until 2027 when they travel to Virginia Tech. Liberty needs to fluff up their schedule if they want real consideration.

As for the AP Poll, they are now irrelevant. The Coaches Poll is the closest we can get to the direction the committee will go. If the AAC Champ doesn't earn the access bowl slot, I'll be glad to come back on here and admit my mistake.

Yes, it's Tulane's to lose right now. But if they do lose it, the door could be open to another G5 champ.

IMO for the AAC to not get the NY6 bid, it would have to come down to a two-loss AAC champ being compared to a zero-loss team from another league, and maybe not even then. The CFP seems to hold the AAC in the same high regard as always, despite the AAC being a junk league this year.

We'll see.

Missouri gets consistently undervalued. They played Georgia equal. Even in the close UGA games, the loser was overmatched. Missouri was not.
They lost to LSU by 10, Georgia by 9 and have beaten everyone else.

(11-20-2023 06:26 PM)Sparty Baby 84 Wrote:  

(11-20-2023 06:13 PM)Gemofthehills Wrote:  

(11-20-2023 01:35 PM)Just Joe Wrote:  

(11-20-2023 12:57 PM)Gemofthehills Wrote:  

(11-20-2023 12:31 PM)Just Joe Wrote:  How exactly do you determine "best team" without factoring SOS?

What does SOS have to do with having the best team? If SOS was the factor then schedule Alabama and UGA every game get beat every game but be considered by some as the best.

Because if they aren't beating good teams, which they aren't outside of NMSU and Jax St how can you tell? They narrowly beat a 4-7 MT team and a Sam Houston team that may be the worst in FBS this year. If Liberty was steamrolling a weak schedule maybe that's another discussion. But they haven't done that consistently. Congrats if they go undefeated but it isn't getting them near an NY6 unless there's a lot of chaos.

Is that the same Middle team who only lost by 4 to a Top 10 Missouri? Also lost to Bama and only has one other out of conference loss. Not easy to win in CUSA as some other conferences.

Liberty won by more vs WKU than a good troy state team.
Liberty won by more vs ODU than a good JMU and beat a good App team
Liberty won by more vs Buffalo than a good Toledo team

Liberty's performance is not bad and getting better as the season progresses. This is with a new staff coming in this year.

As of right now Liberty is the best G5 team playing. NMSU will have a chance to prove me wrong.

Liberty should rightfully be getting the same "undefeated = ranked" discount that many a G5 have received in the past (Hawaii, Northern Illinois, Western Michigan... and not even just those three who eventually played in a NY6 Bowl, but also all the others like them who were easily ranked in the top 25 at this very late point in the year).

Hell, I'm an atheist and even I would not only rank Liberty in the CFB, but I would have them as the highest eligible G5 and... hypothetically I might lay some money on them "if" they end up playing James Madison to settle that debate in Cuba, or wherever far away galaxy they are going to bounce JMU and Liberty to this bowl season.

Not as simple as that.

I won't go through each example team you listed, but I'm certain if someone wanted to research it they would find a reason for that "discount".

Before Hawaii went undefeated the one year, they ended the previous season ranked. So they started that undefeated season with a nice ranking from the start.

I believe the NIU and WMU teams beat some P5's on their schedule.

Liberty didn't start the season ranked and they didn't have any P5 wins.

So no discount.