(09-25-2023 08:26 AM)Claw Wrote:  I wouldn't count Memphis out. We lost an SEC road game by 7 to Missouri. One SEC road loss hasn't been disqualifying in recent years.

Ruled them out of the playoffs four spot, but still in the hunt for the NY 6 Bowl.

(09-25-2023 09:18 AM)DavidSt Wrote:  

(09-25-2023 08:26 AM)Claw Wrote:  I wouldn't count Memphis out. We lost an SEC road game by 7 to Missouri. One SEC road loss hasn't been disqualifying in recent years.

Ruled them out of the playoffs four spot, but still in the hunt for the NY 6 Bowl.

Boise State at Memphis should be a big game for the G5 race.

Fresno State has the edge by breaking into the Top25 this week.

But Boise State and Memphis could win their respective conferences by season's end.

(09-25-2023 09:18 AM)DavidSt Wrote:  

(09-25-2023 08:26 AM)Claw Wrote:  I wouldn't count Memphis out. We lost an SEC road game by 7 to Missouri. One SEC road loss hasn't been disqualifying in recent years.

Ruled them out of the playoffs four spot, but still in the hunt for the NY 6 Bowl.

Ok. I never had them in the playoffs either.

AP Poll 25 Fresno State, 33 Tulane, 36 Air Force

Coaches 26 Fresno State, 36 Air Force, 38 Tulane, 39 Wyoming, 40 Marshall, 41 JMU, 42 Georgia State, 43 Liberty

Safe to say its Fresno, Tulane and Air Force in a three horse race at this point in the season.

It’s way too early to tell.

An undefeated MWC is definitely going to be a strong contender. So is a 1-loss AAC champion. It probably boils down to how the 5 champs match up to each other.

Air Force shoots up with their drubbing of SDSU. Their OOC slate is abysmal so not yet sure why Fresno isn't getting the same love. Most of it is Air Force being favored over Fresno and plain more likely to win the MW. Except for the MAC placing 10th, there is not much daylight between the G5 conferences as a whole.

Top G5 Champ %
1) 34.21% Air Force
2) 20.45% Liberty
3) 15.43% Fresno St
4) 5.04% Marshall
5) 4.57% Memphis
6) 3.49% Wyoming
7) 2.86% Tulane
8) 1.35% Ga Southern
9) 1.24% SMU
10) 1.16% WKU

I'm biased, but darkhorse contender: USF. USF lost to Alabama in a close game (was 10-3 with 30 seconds left in game), and essentially crushed Alabama's offense (5 sacks and many TFL's). This loss won't hurt USF, and I predict will actually help USF at the end of year. The loss to WKU was a bad one though.

AP Polls:
#24 Fresno State
#30 Tulane
#31 Air Force
#36 JMU

Coaches Poll:
#24 Fresno State
#29 Air Force
#33 Wyoming
#35 Tulane
#36 JMU
#39 Marshall
#41 Ohio U.
#42 Memphis

(10-01-2023 08:57 PM)BullsFanInTX Wrote:  I'm biased, but darkhorse contender: USF. USF lost to Alabama in a close game (was 10-3 with 30 seconds left in game), and essentially crushed Alabama's offense (5 sacks and many TFL's). This loss won't hurt USF, and I predict will actually help USF at the end of year. The loss to WKU was a bad one though.

Dude, that game was a way for Saban to show the bama fans that Milroe is the only qb they should play. He trotted out all those idiot qbs to prove a point. The bama team usf played is not the same bama team from even a week ago

(10-01-2023 09:57 PM)Bathtub Gin Wrote:  

(10-01-2023 08:57 PM)BullsFanInTX Wrote:  I'm biased, but darkhorse contender: USF. USF lost to Alabama in a close game (was 10-3 with 30 seconds left in game), and essentially crushed Alabama's offense (5 sacks and many TFL's). This loss won't hurt USF, and I predict will actually help USF at the end of year. The loss to WKU was a bad one though.

Dude, that game was a way for Saban to show the bama fans that Milroe is the only qb they should play. He trotted out all those idiot qbs to prove a point. The bama team usf played is not the same bama team from even a week ago

USF was blowing past Alabama’s offensive line and making them look like chumps. That isn’t on the QB. USF was stuffing the RB’s overall. That wasn’t on the QB. USF had 8 TFLs and 5 sacks. Again not on the QBs. Ever think their QBs played poorly because they were under duress all night. Hmmm. Since then USF has been lighting up teams. No coincidence.

(10-01-2023 08:57 PM)BullsFanInTX Wrote:  I'm biased, but darkhorse contender: USF. USF lost to Alabama in a close game (was 10-3 with 30 seconds left in game), and essentially crushed Alabama's offense (5 sacks and many TFL's). This loss won't hurt USF, and I predict will actually help USF at the end of year. The loss to WKU was a bad one though.

having a blowout CUSA loss is going to be tough with no P5 victory.

Really would depend on what the MWC & SBC champ look like.

(10-01-2023 09:28 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  AP Polls:
#24 Fresno State
#30 Tulane
#31 Air Force
#36 JMU

Coaches Poll:
#24 Fresno State
#29 Air Force
#33 Wyoming
#35 Tulane
#36 JMU
#39 Marshall
#41 Ohio U.
#42 Memphis

Feels like its gunna be a MWC year with the Memphis/Tulane winner this week having an outside chance. JMU not eligible.

If Marshall runs the gauntlet and the MWC champ has 1 loss, they might steal it

(10-02-2023 08:21 AM)solohawks Wrote:  

(10-01-2023 09:28 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  AP Polls:
#24 Fresno State
#30 Tulane
#31 Air Force
#36 JMU

Coaches Poll:
#24 Fresno State
#29 Air Force
#33 Wyoming
#35 Tulane
#36 JMU
#39 Marshall
#41 Ohio U.
#42 Memphis

Feels like its gunna be a MWC year with the Memphis/Tulane winner this week having an outside chance. JMU not eligible.

If Marshall runs the gauntlet and the MWC champ has 1 loss, they might steal it

If Marshall even has 1 loss with a MWC 1 loss its going to be close. Massey has the SBC east as the highest G5 division and over some P5 divisions. Its going to be a bloodbath

(10-02-2023 08:21 AM)solohawks Wrote:  

(10-01-2023 09:28 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  AP Polls:
#24 Fresno State
#30 Tulane
#31 Air Force
#36 JMU

Coaches Poll:
#24 Fresno State
#29 Air Force
#33 Wyoming
#35 Tulane
#36 JMU
#39 Marshall
#41 Ohio U.
#42 Memphis

Feels like its gunna be a MWC year with the Memphis/Tulane winner this week having an outside chance. JMU not eligible.

If Marshall runs the gauntlet and the MWC champ has 1 loss, they might steal it

Boise St will come alive in the conference games and likely remove the MWC teams from being contenders.

(10-01-2023 08:57 PM)BullsFanInTX Wrote:  I'm biased, but darkhorse contender: USF. USF lost to Alabama in a close game (was 10-3 with 30 seconds left in game), and essentially crushed Alabama's offense (5 sacks and many TFL's). This loss won't hurt USF, and I predict will actually help USF at the end of year. The loss to WKU was a bad one though.

I am biased too, but I think the loss to WKU sinks us.

Hope you are correct, though.

Fresno State @ Wyoming this week has the primetime Fox slot

Air Force and Fresno appear to be on a collision course. Both are 5-0 with three common opponents left to play: Wyoming, UNLV and Boise State. Fresno gets Boise at home. The two can't meet until the MWC championship game.

Fresno has the better resume with two P5 scalps, and if they were to win the MWC championship they would be the clear front runner for the NY6 spot.

Compared to other JMU fans, I'm a little less angry about being ineligible this year. A rule's a rule and I expected it to be applied to us. The rule is archaic and should be changed, but it's the rule for now.

All that said, I'm not sure if JMU is completely ineligible for the NY6. It's an extreme long shot scenario that absolutely won't happen, but technically could happen. A bunch of things would need to fall into place:

1. JMU would need to finish the season undefeated and the highest ranked G5.
2. The SBC would need to declare JMU eligible for the SBC championship game. This can be done at the discretion of the conference.
3. There would need to not be enough deserving teams to fill all bowl spots. At that point, 6-win teams in their second year of transition become eligible in order of 3-year APR average. JMU has a higher APR than JSU or SHSU, so we're first in line for a bowl.
4. This is where things become gray. The NCAA bylaws state that all deserving teams must be selected before JMU/JSU/SHSU can be invited, but the rules are silent on the order in which bowls must make their selections. The question of whether JMU will be invited to a bowl will be answered before bowls make their selections. In theory, the NY6 bowl could simply defer its selection then select JMU on the basis that they are the highest ranked G5 champion.

Again, it's incredibly far fetched, but may technically be possible.

(10-02-2023 09:44 AM)We Are the Dukes of JMU Wrote:  Compared to other JMU fans, I'm a little less angry about being ineligible this year. A rule's a rule and I expected it to be applied to us. The rule is archaic and should be changed, but it's the rule for now.

All that said, I'm not sure if JMU is completely ineligible for the NY6. It's an extreme long shot scenario that absolutely won't happen, but technically could happen. A bunch of things would need to fall into place:

1. JMU would need to finish the season undefeated and the highest ranked G5.
2. The SBC would need to declare JMU eligible for the SBC championship game. This can be done at the discretion of the conference.
3. There would need to not be enough deserving teams to fill all bowl spots. At that point, 6-win teams in their second year of transition become eligible in order of 3-year APR average. JMU has a higher APR than JSU or SHSU, so we're first in line for a bowl.
4. This is where things become gray. The NCAA bylaws state that all deserving teams must be selected before JMU/JSU/SHSU can be invited, but the rules are silent on the order in which bowls must make their selections. The question of whether JMU will be invited to a bowl will be answered before bowls make their selections. In theory, the NY6 bowl could simply defer its selection then select JMU on the basis that they are the highest ranked G5 champion.

Again, it's incredibly far fetched, but may technically be possible.

It would seem like #2 is a decision the conference could have and should have (and maybe had) made before the season started.

Your post raises an interesting question for me about what the NCAA transition rules say. Do they say transitioning teams are ineligible for a bowl game, or ineligible for post season play? And, if it's the latter, is a CCG considered post-season or regular season? If it's post-season then maybe the SBC doesn't have the discretion you assume.

There's still a long way to go. Fresno State or Air Force or both could easily be upset in a conference game before reaching the MWC championship. Finishing a regular season undefeated is extraordinarily difficult at any level.