(09-18-2023 04:49 PM)Crayton Wrote:  Georgia State, Memphis, Fresno, and Air Force (in that order of confidence) should all be Top 12 if they are undefeated so they all control their NY6 fate.

Georgia State would have a win at LSU. However, they are probably one of the least impressive 3-0 teams out there
They struggled to beat Rhode Island (who in turn beat two 0-3 teams)
Beat winless UConn
Beat 1-2 Charlotte (whose only win is against 0-3 SC State)

(09-18-2023 01:23 PM)Foreverandever Wrote:  

(09-18-2023 12:50 PM)toddjnsn Wrote:  It's Fresno's to lose at this point. Beat two P5s, and plays in the MW which is good this year -- having to play @Utah State, @Wyoming, Boise, and @SD-State.

That said, that'll be REAL tough for them to go undefeated. Memphis, 2nd in line, has to play Missouri, Boise, and SMU, all both at home. Winnable games, but that'll be quite hard to do. The AAC is basically the new CUSA, so the rest won't be difficult if they're having a NY-Bowl bound year.

Air Force could go thru it all -- and likely play Fresno for the MW championship. If this is the case, and the winner has 0-1 losses -- that's who's going.

GA-State & Marshall have a shot at it. GA-State will definitely have a loss under their belt playing @LSU, but if they keep it competitive for a while and don't lose by more than 21 -- having that as their only loss (doubt it) would arguably put them in position. Marshall has to play a beatable P5, VA-Tech at home -- winnable. But then @NC-State, not so winnable. Doing that would put them in position to compete with Fresno for it all.

Overall, too early to tell. But if I was able to bet on it -- I would say there's going to be NO undefeated G5 champs this year. Which is the usual.

I think in two weeks, we'll have a better view:

MEMPHIS: Missouri, Boise State
SMU: @TCU, Charlotte [Needs Fresno 2L if they win MW; No Undefeateds]
RICE: @South Florida, ECU [Needs 2L by next best]

LIBERTY: @FIU, Sam Houston [Needs Sole Undefeated]
FIU: Liberty, New Mexico State [Needs 2L by next best]

OHIO: @BGSU, Kent State [Needs 2L by next best, or Liberty with 1L]
MIAMI-OH: Delaware St, @Kent State [Needs 2L by next best, or Liberty with 1L]
TOLEDO: WMU, NIU [Needs 2L by next best, or Liberty with 1L]

FRESNO: Kent State, Nevada
AIR FORCE: SD-State, Wyoming [Needs Sole Undefeated, except for Liberty]
WYOMING: App-State, New Mexico [Memphis having 2L if they win AAC; No undefeateds]
UNLV: @UTEP, Hawaii [Memphis having 2L if they win AAC; No undefeateds]

MARSHALL: VA-Tech, Old Dom [Needs Sole Undefeated, except for Liberty]
GEORGIA-ST: @Coastal, Troy [Needs Sole Undefeated, except for Liberty; or Fresno+Memphis 2L if their only loss is to @LSU]
APP-STATE: Wyoming, @UL-Monroe [Memphis+Fresno having 2L if they win their conferences; AF having at least 1L if they do; No undefeateds]
LOUISIANA: Buffalo, @Minnesota [Memphis+Fresno having 2L if they win; AF having at least 1L if they do; No undefeateds]
TEXAS STATE: Nevada, @Southern-Miss [Memphis+Fresno having 2L if they win; AF having at least 1L if they do; No undefeateds]
UL-MONROE: Nevada, @Southern-Miss [Memphis+Fresno having 2L if they win; AF having at least 1L if they do; No undefeateds]
COAST-CAROLINA: GA-State, @GA-Southern [Needs 2L by next best, or Liberty with 1L]
GA-SOUTHERN: @Ball-St, Coast-Carolina [Needs 2L by next best, or Liberty with 1L]
SOUTH ALABAMA: CMU, @James Madison [Needs 2L by next best, or Liberty with 1L]

*Obviously the projected requirements can be tweaked as things can get more complicated; mainly if you beat a P5, it brings you more leverage over others comparable. Beat two P5s (like Fresno), you're in the driver's seat. But could be a surprise MW champ at 1L, with a Sun Belt champ at 1L, and who the hell knows. Depends on each's SoS.

Tulane lost to a ranked SEC opponent and beat a team on this list, but they don't have a chance?

The anti-AAC bias from.some on here is hilarious.

To get into the playoffs? Tulane had to have no loses to get into the playoffs.

(09-17-2023 01:59 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  Fresno State and Tulane are in that order on the new AP rankings.
Fresno State, Air Force, Tulane, Memphis, JMU, Ohio etc got other votes on the coaches polls. Liberty is nowhere on any of the polls.

I can’t say for sure, but in the coaches poll there’s a high likelihood that Ohio’s HC Tim Albin is just voting for his own team (he put them 21st at the end of last season when only one other coach put them in the Top 25).

The MAC almost certainly won’t end up with the G5 bid, you’d need Toledo/OU/Miami to run the table (from what I’ve seen none of those three are good enough to do that) and 1+ losses from the other conference champs. My Miami would probably have the best resume of the three since our loss to the U will probably age best (compared to Illinois and San Diego State) and we have a road P5 win now, but no way a Chuck Martin team wins 10+ games in a season.

I'm rooting for Fresno State.

Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk

Memphis gone. Not sure how I feel about Liberty hitting 'that' high. I give them a 1 in 3 chance of going undefeated and therefore only a 2 in 3 chance they get the G5 spot if they do go undefeated. I still gotta get a standings to compare these teams directly based on finish.

Top G5 Champ %
1) 25.66% Air Force
2) 23.26% Liberty
3) 18.7% Fresno St
4) 5.01% Marshall
5) 4.65% Memphis
6) 3.42% Georgia St
7) 3.15% Wyoming
8) 3.07% Tulane
9) 2.13% SMU
10) 1.66% Boise St
11) 1.28% Ga Southern
12) 1.21% Miami(OH)
13) 1.21% App St

Playoff %
26) 1.93% Air Force
31) 1.04% Liberty
37) 0.6% Fresno St
49) 0.19% Georgia St
52) 0.15% Marshall
56) 0.05% Wyoming
66) 0.01% Memphis
67) 0.01% Tulane

(09-24-2023 10:10 AM)Crayton Wrote:  Memphis gone. Not sure how I feel about Liberty hitting 'that' high. I give them a 1 in 3 chance of going undefeated and therefore only a 2 in 3 chance they get the G5 spot if they do go undefeated. I still gotta get a standings to compare these teams directly based on finish.

Top G5 Champ %
1) 25.66% Air Force
2) 23.26% Liberty
3) 18.7% Fresno St
4) 5.01% Marshall
5) 4.65% Memphis
6) 3.42% Georgia St
7) 3.15% Wyoming
8) 3.07% Tulane
9) 2.13% SMU
10) 1.66% Boise St
11) 1.28% Ga Southern
12) 1.21% Miami(OH)
13) 1.21% App St

Playoff %
26) 1.93% Air Force
31) 1.04% Liberty
37) 0.6% Fresno St
49) 0.19% Georgia St
52) 0.15% Marshall
56) 0.05% Wyoming
66) 0.01% Memphis
67) 0.01% Tulane

Remind me, where do the percentages come from again? Weird seeing my Miami on any type of list like this, this is our first 3-1 start since I was in the 4th grade (2003 with Big Ben).

Imo this is the MWC’s to lose so long as their champ has one loss or less, perhaps it trickles down to a one-loss C-USA/Sun Belt/MAC champ if a team like Boise sneaks into the championship game with 2+ losses and pulls off the upset against AFA/Fresno.

IMO, it's going to be tough for an AAC team to get the nod when the conference as a whole is only 1-20 against P5 opponents and Fresno alone has two P5 scalps already.

The Belt still has 3 unbeaten teams (the AAC has none), but they are all in the same division, so at least two of them will have a loss. I think James Madison, which has a P5 scalp, is still ineligible (for no good reason) even if they go undefeated. Marshall has the other P5 win.

(09-24-2023 12:17 PM)Love and Honor Wrote:  

(09-24-2023 10:10 AM)Crayton Wrote:  Memphis gone. Not sure how I feel about Liberty hitting 'that' high. I give them a 1 in 3 chance of going undefeated and therefore only a 2 in 3 chance they get the G5 spot if they do go undefeated. I still gotta get a standings to compare these teams directly based on finish.

Top G5 Champ %
1) 25.66% Air Force
2) 23.26% Liberty
3) 18.7% Fresno St
4) 5.01% Marshall
5) 4.65% Memphis
6) 3.42% Georgia St
7) 3.15% Wyoming
8) 3.07% Tulane
9) 2.13% SMU
10) 1.66% Boise St
11) 1.28% Ga Southern
12) 1.21% Miami(OH)
13) 1.21% App St

Playoff %
26) 1.93% Air Force
31) 1.04% Liberty
37) 0.6% Fresno St
49) 0.19% Georgia St
52) 0.15% Marshall
56) 0.05% Wyoming
66) 0.01% Memphis
67) 0.01% Tulane

Remind me, where do the percentages come from again? Weird seeing my Miami on any type of list like this, this is our first 3-1 start since I was in the 4th grade (2003 with Big Ben).

Imo this is the MWC’s to lose so long as their champ has one loss or less, perhaps it trickles down to a one-loss C-USA/Sun Belt/MAC champ if a team like Boise sneaks into the championship game with 2+ losses and pulls off the upset against AFA/Fresno.

I simulate the remainder of the season 10,000 times and have a computer ranking system determine who advances in each sim.

Expected that for us. I won't be surprised if we are 3-3 after six games.

(09-24-2023 01:26 PM)Alanda Wrote:  Expected that for us. I won't be surprised if we are 3-3 after six games.

I was hopeful while following watching yesterday's game. Just couldn't put enough together. I suppose I wasn't surprised. 3-0 (and beating Navy on a short week) was a nice gift to start the season.

(09-24-2023 01:43 PM)Crayton Wrote:  

(09-24-2023 01:26 PM)Alanda Wrote:  Expected that for us. I won't be surprised if we are 3-3 after six games.

I was hopeful while following watching yesterday's game. Just couldn't put enough together. I suppose I wasn't surprised. 3-0 (and beating Navy on a short week) was a nice gift to start the season.

Our offensive system has been bland and predictable for years under Silverfield. With all the mistakes Missouri made Fuente or Norvell would have won that game.

I've been going more in depth on it this season because some still blame the OL for our problems.

https://csnbbs.com/thread-977191.html

I wouldn't be that surprised to see a 3 loss G5 NY6 team. Its not probable, but certainly possible. Given the negotiations on the future of the CFP, the G5 will hope its not a 3 loss team. There are only 6 unbeatens and 12 1 loss teams and 20 2 loss teams. The conferences seem pretty balanced, so they could beat up on each other.

What relevance do all [/align]the FCS teams have to a G5 NY6 bowl slot?[align=justify]

For fun I added up the MWC and other G5 Conferences records vs other G5 Conferences and G5 level Independents along with FCS losses and P5 wins up to Week 4:

MWC: 8-4 vs G5, 4 P5 wins, 1 FCS Loss

SB: 13-6 vs G5, 4 P5 wins, 0 FCS Losses

AAC: 8-4 vs G5, 1 P5 wins, 0 FCS Losses

MAC: 5-5 vs G5, 3 P5 wins, 2 FCS Losses

CUSA: 7-9 vs G5, 0 P5 wins, 0 FCS Losses

G5 Indy: 2-6 vs G5, 0 P5 wins, 0 FCS losses

Taking this into account if I were to rank all the G5s this year so far I'd have to go with:

1. Sunbelt
2. MWC
3. AAC
4. MAC
5. CUSA
6. INDY

(09-24-2023 02:20 PM)Utgrizfan Wrote:  For fun I added up the MWC and other G5 Conferences records vs other G5 Conferences and G5 level Independents along with FCS losses and P5 wins up to Week 4:

MWC: 8-4 vs G5, 4 P5 wins, 1 FCS Loss

SB: 13-6 vs G5, 4 P5 wins, 0 FCS Losses

AAC: 8-4 vs G5, 1 P5 wins, 0 FCS Losses

MAC: 5-5 vs G5, 3 P5 wins, 2 FCS Losses

CUSA: 7-9 vs G5, 0 P5 wins, 0 FCS Losses

G5 Indy: 2-6 vs G5, 0 P5 wins, 0 FCS losses

Taking this into account if I were to rank all the G5s this year so far I'd have to go with:

1. Sunbelt
2. MWC
3. AAC
4. MAC
5. CUSA
6. INDY

The Belt is having a very good year. They don’t have a UNR like the MWC. That being said it’s hard to find a team you would rank. JMU would be the best but they are not eligible. Probably Marshall after them.

3 MWC, 3 SBC, 1 CUSA and 1 AAC got votes in the coaches poll this week.
AP ranked Fresno State at number 25.

AP:
#25 Fresno State
#33 Tulane
#35 Air Force

Coaches Poll
#26 Fresno State
#35 Air Force
#37 Tulane
#38 Wyoming
#39 Marshall
#40 JMU
#41 Liberty
#42 Georgia State

(09-24-2023 02:14 PM)Bobcat2013 Wrote:  What relevance do all [/align]the FCS teams have to a G5 NY6 bowl slot?[align=justify]

Absolutely none

(09-24-2023 10:10 AM)Crayton Wrote:  ....

Top G5 Champ %
...
12) 1.21% Miami(OH)
...

"So, you're saying there's a chance?"

However, I expect this is only notional, since although I expect my alma mater to beat us next week, I expect Ohio to win the Football Battle of the Bricks on the 4th Saturday in October.

Quote:Tulane lost to a ranked SEC opponent and beat a team on this list, but they don't have a chance?

Missed them, my bad. :)

Contenders from each conference, and next 2 upcoming games...

AAC:
Memphis (3-1): Boise, Tulane -- If Memphis can somehow win both of these, it'll erase the no-chance POV many have after losing to Missouri (who's actually not that bad).

Tulane (3-1): UAB, @Memphis -- Tulane hasn't established themselves as dominant this year, but it's early.

CUSA:
Liberty (4-0): Sam Houston, @Jacksonville St -- Undefeated, and could end up being so. Would be impressive, but they'd have the weakest schedule + no P5 games, so being undefeated alone won't carry it for them.

Jacksonville St (3-1): @Sam Houston, @MTSU -- Next two games are easy, 3rd one vs Liberty for what could be who wins regular season conf championship, early on. Their loss was to another G5 which isn't good given they're in a weak conference -- but they play @South Carolina, and that'd more than make up for it if they beat them + the rest of the way. Especially if Coastal Carolina who they lost to reaches the peak of the Sun Belt.

MAC:
Ohio (4-1): Kent State, @NIU -- They lost to @San Diego St in a close matchup, in part due to their QB getting injured early in the game. Unless San Diego State wins the MW, Ohio's got little chance. They beat Iowa State and a fellow G5 team, but the only two challenging games left outside the MACC game are Miami-OH + Central Michigan. Still alive. Just need AAC or MW champs to have 2L; or if Fresno/AF, 3 - lol.

Miami-OH (3-1): @Kent State, BGSU -- They lost to @Maimi-FL very soundly, but Miami-FL's in the hunt for the ACC championship. And Miami-OH beat Cincinnati, a now P5 team. If they beat Toledo, and @Ohio, while winning the MACC, they have a shot. Same seat as Ohio.

Toledo (3-1): NIU, @UMass -- They lost by less than a FG to @Illinois, but it's Illinois who doesn't look that good this year so far. They beat San Jose St out of the MW, scored 71 on an FCS squad, and scored 49 against their last opponent. If they beat @Miami + @Central Michigan, and beat Ohio/Miami in the MACC, they have a shot if things everyone else in the conferences are beating themselves up.

MOUNTAIN WEST:
Fresno (4-0): Nevada, @Wyoming -- They're in the driver's seat among all G5s. They beat two P5s on the road + are in arguably the toughest G5 conference. Beating @Wyoming would be a statement.

Air Force (4-0): San Diego St, Wyoming -- AF's schedule's been easy so far, so you can't expect them to roll thru the MW unscathed. They got two decent teams to play back to back to test how good they may be. They still have @Navy + UNLV + Boise, and @Colorado St who's only played 3 games and may be a tough team, too. We shall see about AF.

UNLV (3-1): Hawaii, @Nevada -- They should win their next two. But after that, they got Colo-St, @Fresno, Wyoming, and @Air Force. They beat a P5, Vandy, and played Michigan respectably, in the same fashion Rutgers did. But nobody's expecting UNLV to go to the MW Championship game.

Wyoming (3-1): New Mexico, Fresno -- They upset Texas Tech at home, and got solidly beat by Texas but not totally blown out. Their real test will be against Fresno.

SUN BELT CONFERENCE:
Georgia State (4-0): Troy, Marshall -- They haven't had a tough schedule so far, but they got @LSU late in the season to make up for the easy OOC schedule. These two games next will determine whether they're potentially New Years worthy or not.

Marshall (3-0): Old Dominion, @NC-State -- Only played 3 games, but beat VA-Tech in a close one at home, and a fellow G5'r. But this NC State game will put them in high gear if they beat them. They can afford to lose that, but they got @GA-State after that followed by James Madison. Should be interesting.

GA-Southern (3-1): Coastal Carolina, @James Madison -- They got a tough one in their game after next. Their OOC schedule wasn't anything to put them in high position, but their loss to @Wisconsin was respectable.

Texas State (3-1): @Southern Miss, @Louisiana -- They opened with a win @Baylor which puts them in high-G5 consideration, but then lost the next week to UTSA. Last two games nothing to brag about, nor is their next one, but @Louisiana will be a good test to see if they're in position to win the Sun Belt.

Louisiana (3-1): @Minnesota, Texas State -- They lost to @Old Dominion which hurts, so they need this P5 win to position themselves well in the New Years hunt. Doing that and beating Texas State certainly will. But Minnesota fell apart and lost to Northwestern, and I can only expect Minnesota to take their frustration out on Louisiana, as PJ is going to be Pissed.

UL Monroe (2-1): App-State, South Alabama -- Played only 3 games, got blown out by @Texas A&M, but that theoretically could be made up for by their late season game @Ole Miss. They have two tough games ahead, so this will really reveal how they'll be this year.

I wouldn't count Memphis out. We lost an SEC road game by 7 to Missouri. One SEC road loss hasn't been disqualifying in recent years.