(09-13-2023 11:55 AM)miko33 Wrote: (09-13-2023 11:06 AM)JRsec Wrote: With each report, each escalation, I have two thoughts that keep coming back into my mind.
1. Who benefits from this war? Europe? No. The United States? No. Ukraine? Debatable. China? Your damn right they do!
2. What is the risk? Nuclear war. With the weapons available who is hit hardest with the damage? Europe, the East Coast of the U.S. if we are not directly involved because of Fallout drift. Who stays the cleanest in nuclear terms? China and most of the Southern hemisphere.
The horribly criminal regime pushing the Ukraine in this is profiting his benefactor, China.
And that last statement is the only thing in this whole damned mess that makes any sense at all.
I don't think this benefits China all that much. Maybe it's a push but the flip side is that trade is being disrupted and that's bad for China. With Russia being a pariah internationally, China does benefit from cheaper oil. That said, the war appeared to accelerate the new cold war developing between the U.S. and China - and China was most definitely not ready for that. While a number of the issues China is dealing with began with the Trump administration clamping down on trade and then Covid - I think the Ukraine war accelerated the time table in light of Putin and Xi getting closer.
India is most likely the biggest beneficiary of this conflict. They are fairly well self sufficient with food so a loss of Ukrainian grain does not hurt them. Buying cheaper Russian oil and other commodities are a net benefit. As China continues to see a massive outpouring of investment by foreigners, India is benefitting from this too.
Our military industrial complex is getting a big jolt because of this war.
I am intractable on this position. Anything which weakens Russia benefits China as it gives them the better bargaining position. It lessens the chance of a Russian / US alliance to curb their expansionism, and it removes one more competitor from the global quest for rare earth minerals and as an arms provider/exporter. It weakens the U.S. and destabilizes the sense of security in Europe.
Miko your position relative to the dollar, trade, and markets in general is understandable from your vantage point. That is not my vantage point and I couldn't disagree more. I hope you are proven correct. But all if it and its inherent destabilization of all areas of stasis in Europe and in the balance of power, tells me I'm right.
I generally enjoy your posts and carefully consider what you say, but I believe your vantage point on this leaves you with some significant blind spots. Your vantage point assumes some gestalts in business. Chaos and instability are a wildfire, and one which usually cannot be contained. This will spread and the areas impacted by that spread will weaken the West and strengthen China. They know it. I know it. Those in the military in Europe know it. Only business people errantly assume it will not.
If you are correct I'll feel some relief. If I am correct the consequences would be catastrophic. I'm willing to risk the loss of business opportunities to avoid catastrophe. The reason business people should never run the world is because they are focused on the short term and generally cannot conceive of a catastrophe. When 100s of millions of lives depend upon a leadership, I trust strategic planners of war and defense far more than I trust those worried about quarterly statements, investors, and the annual accomplishments. Business to be sure is a tool of the state in peace time and in war. But war is a chaos which like a virulent cancer spreads readily into adjacent areas of the body. China is the most remote from this and as a super power in a way which India is not, they benefit the most from carnage in Europe and the poisonous impact upon the East Coast of the U.S. at the Northern points of that coast. The drift takes fallout across New England and New York and across the Northern Midwest. Putin may not be a stable individual and his nuclear arsenal is quite capable of ending all life on this orb. Is this bear really worth poking, and I might add continually poking with greater intensity?
That sir is a blatantly irresponsible, inexplicable, and incomprehensible risk I would only take if first fired upon. And Ukraine was an issue best decided by trade if the Germans truly wanted to help them. It's a bull**** flashpoint which could ignite the world and only the most inept/corrupt of leaders in the West would have us in it!