(09-05-2023 07:41 PM)solohawks Wrote:  NYC is scheduled to be blacked out of the Bills Jets MNF

If that doesn't budge anyone nothing will

Aaron Rodgers Jets debut.

On 9/11.

(09-05-2023 07:41 PM)solohawks Wrote:  NYC is scheduled to be blacked out of the Bills Jets MNF

If that doesn't budge anyone nothing will

Well, actually....

"Furthermore, the NFL is the only league that imposes an anti-siphoning rule in all teams' local markets: the NFL sells syndication rights of each team's Thursday and Monday night games to a local over-the-air station in each local market. The respective cable station must be blacked out when that team is playing the said game."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_F...%20market.

Unless, of course, the local NYC station that has the rights is the ABC station.

(09-05-2023 08:04 PM)djsuperfly Wrote:  

(09-05-2023 07:41 PM)solohawks Wrote:  NYC is scheduled to be blacked out of the Bills Jets MNF

If that doesn't budge anyone nothing will

Well, actually....

"Furthermore, the NFL is the only league that imposes an anti-siphoning rule in all teams' local markets: the NFL sells syndication rights of each team's Thursday and Monday night games to a local over-the-air station in each local market. The respective cable station must be blacked out when that team is playing the said game."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_F...%20market.

Unless, of course, the local NYC station that has the rights is the ABC station.

The Bills-Jets MNF game is being simulcast on all ABC stations nationally, so it would be the case that WABC in New York is subject to this Spectrum dispute, too. (You’re correct that there is always a local OTA simulcast for any cable/streaming NFL game, but it doesn’t apply when there’s a national simulcast as there is in this instance.)

But yeah, the NYC market being shut out of the first Jets game for Aaron Rodgers against another superstar QB (Josh Allen) on 9/11 is about as much of a pressure point as you can get in a carriage dispute.

This is gonna go on for a while. Spectrum wouldn't have partnered with FUBO for 2 months if they expected it to be short term.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/abcnews.go....-102942318

(09-05-2023 07:44 PM)Section 200 Wrote:  

(09-05-2023 07:37 PM)johnbragg Wrote:  

(09-05-2023 02:51 PM)JRsec Wrote:  The college football viewership in most of the SEC footprint is 50% of households or more. Can Spectrum lose 50% of its business? That's a helluva lot worst than losing 7 million out of 75 million or more.

According to their presentation to their stockholders, yes they can.

This Bob Thompson essay could be its own thread, maybe, but I'm putting it here for now. https://stratechery.com/2023/the-rise-an...-leverage/ Oh and oh me oh my the piece links to Charter's 11 slide powerpoint....https://ir.charter.com/static-files/05f8...6a7acfe318

To summarize, Charter is taking the position that Spectrum is not that important. "The video product is no longer a driver of financial performance." They're directing angry Spectrum customers to a one-click signup for YoutubeTV. The important thing to Charter is that the customers stay with Charter for their internet service.

Basically, if Disney isn't willing to bundle their direct-to-consumer products with their linear channels in some way, traditional cable (Spectrum) is going to bleed out anyway.

"Charter wants to reach an agreement with Disney but as a portion of Disney/ESPN engaged viewers downgrade their video services with Charter, there will be even less incentive to force tremendous cost and a broken model on our remaining video customers "

The way I read that, Charter Spectrum will rapidly bleed off the angriest, most committted ESPN fans to YoutubeTV or, less likely, to alternate data providers. Which decreases Disney's leverage -- in a few weeks, after Alabama-Texas, after a couple of weeks of Monday Night Football, Disney will have taken their best shot at breaking Charter.

100% yes - Disney must make a deal. I think there are tons of cable subscribers, many female, that love Hallmark, HGTV, TLC, local news like Spectrum 1, etc that never watch ESPN. They might watch Freeform but its not a deal breaker. If Spectrum can save $15/month per sub, they can hold price flat & make a much larger profit. This is the plan - and it will break ESPN as all the "free-riding" is over. This will also kill ACC Network, SEC Network & when Fox renews, Big Ten Network. The cable companies have reached the breaking point.

My understanding is that Spectrum isn’t looking to get cheaper. (Let’s nip that in the bud!) What they want is for the Disney cable fees to also include access to Disney+, Hulu and ESPN+. If I’m running Disney, that’s a 100% non-starter dealbreaker. That is Disney’s most important future business - they’re not just going to give it away to Spectrum and, more importantly, then in turn means that they have to give it to every other cable company due to most favored nation clauses. I don’t blame Spectrum for trying, but that is the type of request that they have to reasonably know would get shot down and is a third rail for Disney.

Those most favored nation clauses are what make it impossible to do a “deal” with one specific provider - when you make a concession to one cable company, you then have to make that exact same concession to every other cable company that you work with. That’s why the cable networks end up in these carriage disputes - their contracts are created to be punitive if they deviate from the terms that they have with other cable carriers, so the network owners have to take a hard line on pricing and other terms.

(09-06-2023 06:50 AM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  

(09-05-2023 07:44 PM)Section 200 Wrote:  

(09-05-2023 07:37 PM)johnbragg Wrote:  

(09-05-2023 02:51 PM)JRsec Wrote:  The college football viewership in most of the SEC footprint is 50% of households or more. Can Spectrum lose 50% of its business? That's a helluva lot worst than losing 7 million out of 75 million or more.

According to their presentation to their stockholders, yes they can.

This Bob Thompson essay could be its own thread, maybe, but I'm putting it here for now. https://stratechery.com/2023/the-rise-an...-leverage/ Oh and oh me oh my the piece links to Charter's 11 slide powerpoint....https://ir.charter.com/static-files/05f8...6a7acfe318

To summarize, Charter is taking the position that Spectrum is not that important. "The video product is no longer a driver of financial performance." They're directing angry Spectrum customers to a one-click signup for YoutubeTV. The important thing to Charter is that the customers stay with Charter for their internet service.

Basically, if Disney isn't willing to bundle their direct-to-consumer products with their linear channels in some way, traditional cable (Spectrum) is going to bleed out anyway.

"Charter wants to reach an agreement with Disney but as a portion of Disney/ESPN engaged viewers downgrade their video services with Charter, there will be even less incentive to force tremendous cost and a broken model on our remaining video customers "

The way I read that, Charter Spectrum will rapidly bleed off the angriest, most committted ESPN fans to YoutubeTV or, less likely, to alternate data providers. Which decreases Disney's leverage -- in a few weeks, after Alabama-Texas, after a couple of weeks of Monday Night Football, Disney will have taken their best shot at breaking Charter.

100% yes - Disney must make a deal. I think there are tons of cable subscribers, many female, that love Hallmark, HGTV, TLC, local news like Spectrum 1, etc that never watch ESPN. They might watch Freeform but its not a deal breaker. If Spectrum can save $15/month per sub, they can hold price flat & make a much larger profit. This is the plan - and it will break ESPN as all the "free-riding" is over. This will also kill ACC Network, SEC Network & when Fox renews, Big Ten Network. The cable companies have reached the breaking point.

My understanding is that Spectrum isn’t looking to get cheaper. (Let’s nip that in the bud!) What they want is for the Disney cable fees to also include access to Disney+, Hulu and ESPN+. If I’m running Disney, that’s a 100% non-starter dealbreaker. That is Disney’s most important future business - they’re not just going to give it away to Spectrum and, more importantly, then in turn means that they have to give it to every other cable company due to most favored nation clauses. I don’t blame Spectrum for trying, but that is the type of request that they have to reasonably know would get shot down and is a third rail for Disney.

Those most favored nation clauses are what make it impossible to do a “deal” with one specific provider - when you make a concession to one cable company, you then have to make that exact same concession to every other cable company that you work with. That’s why the cable networks end up in these carriage disputes - their contracts are created to be punitive if they deviate from the terms that they have with other cable carriers, so the network owners have to take a hard line on pricing and other terms.

Good information, thank you, Frank!

This kind of fight happens all the time in Cable/provider battles. At the end of the day a deal will happen.

(09-05-2023 10:32 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  

(09-05-2023 08:04 PM)djsuperfly Wrote:  

(09-05-2023 07:41 PM)solohawks Wrote:  NYC is scheduled to be blacked out of the Bills Jets MNF

If that doesn't budge anyone nothing will

Well, actually....

"Furthermore, the NFL is the only league that imposes an anti-siphoning rule in all teams' local markets: the NFL sells syndication rights of each team's Thursday and Monday night games to a local over-the-air station in each local market. The respective cable station must be blacked out when that team is playing the said game."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_F...%20market.

Unless, of course, the local NYC station that has the rights is the ABC station.

The Bills-Jets MNF game is being simulcast on all ABC stations nationally, so it would be the case that WABC in New York is subject to this Spectrum dispute, too. (You’re correct that there is always a local OTA simulcast for any cable/streaming NFL game, but it doesn’t apply when there’s a national simulcast as there is in this instance.)

But yeah, the NYC market being shut out of the first Jets game for Aaron Rodgers against another superstar QB (Josh Allen) on 9/11 is about as much of a pressure point as you can get in a carriage dispute.

This particular Monday Night Game is scheduled to be simulcast on ESPN, ABC and ESPN+, so New York fans have multiple options to watch the game. Most Monday Night games will be ESPN only with OTA coverage in local markets. While the dispute continues, OTA stations owned by ABC are also unavailable to Spectrum. This includes stations in NYC, LA, Chicago, Philly, SF, Houston, Raleigh, and Fresno. If you rely on cable to receive these stations, you would be out of luck as well.

(09-06-2023 07:36 AM)orangefan Wrote:  

(09-05-2023 10:32 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  

(09-05-2023 08:04 PM)djsuperfly Wrote:  

(09-05-2023 07:41 PM)solohawks Wrote:  NYC is scheduled to be blacked out of the Bills Jets MNF

If that doesn't budge anyone nothing will

Well, actually....

"Furthermore, the NFL is the only league that imposes an anti-siphoning rule in all teams' local markets: the NFL sells syndication rights of each team's Thursday and Monday night games to a local over-the-air station in each local market. The respective cable station must be blacked out when that team is playing the said game."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_F...%20market.

Unless, of course, the local NYC station that has the rights is the ABC station.

The Bills-Jets MNF game is being simulcast on all ABC stations nationally, so it would be the case that WABC in New York is subject to this Spectrum dispute, too. (You’re correct that there is always a local OTA simulcast for any cable/streaming NFL game, but it doesn’t apply when there’s a national simulcast as there is in this instance.)

But yeah, the NYC market being shut out of the first Jets game for Aaron Rodgers against another superstar QB (Josh Allen) on 9/11 is about as much of a pressure point as you can get in a carriage dispute.

This particular Monday Night Game is scheduled to be simulcast on ESPN, ABC and ESPN+, so New York fans have multiple options to watch the game. Most Monday Night games will be ESPN only with OTA coverage in local markets. While the dispute continues, OTA stations owned by ABC are also unavailable to Spectrum. This includes stations in NYC, LA, Chicago, Philly, SF, Houston, Raleigh, and Fresno. If you rely on cable to receive these stations, you would be out of luck as well.

For the Chicago market, the only part that has Spectrum is in Southeast Wisconsin (Kenosha and its environs). Comcast is the dominant cable provider for the vast majority of the Chicago market and in the State of Illinois in general. My understanding is that most of NYC itself has Spectrum, so it has a huge impact there.

The biggest reason NYC is impacted is because they lose ABC and ESPN. Most markets will still be able to rely on their local ABC for this week's MNF. ESPN+ is an option for everyone of course, but I don't think that will go over well in NYC. There will be a rush on Antennas to pick up WABC

(09-06-2023 07:54 AM)Yosef181 Wrote:  

(09-06-2023 07:49 AM)solohawks Wrote:  The biggest reason NYC is impacted is because they lose ABC and ESPN. Most markets will still be able to rely on their local ABC for this week's MNF. ESPN+ is an option for everyone of course, but I don't think that will go over well in NYC. There will be a rush on Antennas to pick up WABC

All ABC stations are owned by Disney, which means all local ABC stations are unavailable for Spectrum subscribers, in every market.

That's not true here in Orlando. I have Spectrum and watching the local ABC station on Spectrum has not been an issue.

(09-06-2023 07:58 AM)Lumber Wrote:  

(09-06-2023 07:54 AM)Yosef181 Wrote:  

(09-06-2023 07:49 AM)solohawks Wrote:  The biggest reason NYC is impacted is because they lose ABC and ESPN. Most markets will still be able to rely on their local ABC for this week's MNF. ESPN+ is an option for everyone of course, but I don't think that will go over well in NYC. There will be a rush on Antennas to pick up WABC

All ABC stations are owned by Disney, which means all local ABC stations are unavailable for Spectrum subscribers, in every market.

That's not true here in Orlando. I have Spectrum and watching the local ABC station on Spectrum has not been an issue.

Yeah - Disney only owns 8 ABC stations, so those are the only ones involved in the dispute.

"Earlier this week, Charter CEO Chris Winfrey said, “This is not a typical carriage dispute” and mentioned that they’ve been pushing for a deal with Disney that could give its customers “access to Disney’s ad-supported streaming services like Disney+ and ESPN+ at no additional cost.”

"Now, Disney has released a statement where it notes that “disputes between cable companies and content providers aren’t new.” However, Disney points out that consumers face a serious issue losing ESPN as Labor Day weekend is one of the biggest sports weekends of the year. Disney also pointed out the popularity of ESPN with Charter consumers."

“Although Charter claims that they value their customers,” Disney wrote, “they declined Disney’s offer to extend negotiations which would have kept Disney-owned networks up for consumers in the middle of perennial programming events like the US Open and college football.”

"Disney went on to state: “Even though Charter also claims to value Disney’s direct-to-consumer services, the cable company is demanding these different services for free—as they have stated publicly—which does not make economic sense. Moreover, it does not make sense for consumers who desire the flexibility to have our streaming platforms as standalone services.”

https://www.disneyfoodblog.com/2023/09/0...m_content=

Sounds like NYC is gunna miss MNF

(09-06-2023 07:58 AM)Lumber Wrote:  

(09-06-2023 07:54 AM)Yosef181 Wrote:  

(09-06-2023 07:49 AM)solohawks Wrote:  The biggest reason NYC is impacted is because they lose ABC and ESPN. Most markets will still be able to rely on their local ABC for this week's MNF. ESPN+ is an option for everyone of course, but I don't think that will go over well in NYC. There will be a rush on Antennas to pick up WABC

All ABC stations are owned by Disney, which means all local ABC stations are unavailable for Spectrum subscribers, in every market.

That's not true here in Orlando. I have Spectrum and watching the local ABC station on Spectrum has not been an issue.

Yeah, looks like you got that reply in before I deleted what I wrote. I live in Raleigh, and it's true here. Just assumed it was the case everywhere. Googled it after I posted, and deleted the post once I saw the Google results.

This article points to Disney has a lot more to lose in this fight than Charter-Spectrum. Charter provides broadband service to help anchor its long term stability and financial wherewithall...

Quote:The clash revolves around the two companies failing to come to agreeable terms around a new distribution deal. Under the current terms, Spectrum paid Disney $2.2 billion annually to make Disney's channels part of customers' cable packages. Charter proposed a new model Aug. 31 that Disney declined.

The Mouse House subsequently pulled its programming in a move that could infect other legacy media brands as the contest between streaming and cable intensifies.

"I think Disney has gone from stud of the media space to dud. It did not need this fight right now," Tom Rogers, a former NBC cable president told CNBC, noting the numerous deals -- between Hulu, ESPN and ABC -- the brand currently has on the table. "This is much more existential for Disney than it is for Charter."

Part of the existential threat to Disney, Rogers said, involves the simple fact that, in the past, cable companies "couldn't withstand the pressure" of a conflict with their programmers. But the business has changed; cable companies are more focused now on broadband than video, so they can afford to not really care about their margins on the video side.

Cable companies "used to be scared to death of these fights," Rogers said. "This could really be a watershed event in terms of the programming side of the industry. If they have lost their leverage, [Disney] probably deserves to be rated downward."

This fight comes as media brands across the sector are attempting to transition to streaming, and losing tons of money in the process. The operating costs of streaming are significant; few companies have enough subscribers to truly offset that expense.

"All media companies are trying to milk their legacy businesses to get as much cash as they can to support the development of their streaming businesses," Rogers said. "There's probably going to have to be some kind of compromise that Charter distributes those streaming services at some kind of discounted price and Disney looks to get Charter's shoulders behind their streaming services, which are very under-distributed compared to Netflix."

Disney is backing itself in a corner...

(09-06-2023 12:23 PM)solohawks Wrote:  Sounds like NYC is gunna miss MNF

Get an antenna or get ESPN+. One month of ESPN+ is $9.99, about the price of a low end indoor digital antenna.

(09-06-2023 03:14 PM)orangefan Wrote:  

(09-06-2023 12:23 PM)solohawks Wrote:  Sounds like NYC is gunna miss MNF

Get an antenna or get ESPN+. One month of ESPN+ is $9.99, about the price of a low end indoor digital antenna.

You're exactly right. You don't have to be a slave to cable TV.

It will be interesting to see if the NFL has penalties in their contract with ESPN now that ESPN has lost 15 million subs. Disney must come to a deal - stock hit a 52 low today as the ESPN battle will cost $2.2B in revenue a year with no decrease in cost.

(09-06-2023 06:50 AM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  

(09-05-2023 07:44 PM)Section 200 Wrote:  

(09-05-2023 07:37 PM)johnbragg Wrote:  

(09-05-2023 02:51 PM)JRsec Wrote:  The college football viewership in most of the SEC footprint is 50% of households or more. Can Spectrum lose 50% of its business? That's a helluva lot worst than losing 7 million out of 75 million or more.

According to their presentation to their stockholders, yes they can.

This Bob Thompson essay could be its own thread, maybe, but I'm putting it here for now. https://stratechery.com/2023/the-rise-an...-leverage/ Oh and oh me oh my the piece links to Charter's 11 slide powerpoint....https://ir.charter.com/static-files/05f8...6a7acfe318

To summarize, Charter is taking the position that Spectrum is not that important. "The video product is no longer a driver of financial performance." They're directing angry Spectrum customers to a one-click signup for YoutubeTV. The important thing to Charter is that the customers stay with Charter for their internet service.

Basically, if Disney isn't willing to bundle their direct-to-consumer products with their linear channels in some way, traditional cable (Spectrum) is going to bleed out anyway.

"Charter wants to reach an agreement with Disney but as a portion of Disney/ESPN engaged viewers downgrade their video services with Charter, there will be even less incentive to force tremendous cost and a broken model on our remaining video customers "

The way I read that, Charter Spectrum will rapidly bleed off the angriest, most committted ESPN fans to YoutubeTV or, less likely, to alternate data providers. Which decreases Disney's leverage -- in a few weeks, after Alabama-Texas, after a couple of weeks of Monday Night Football, Disney will have taken their best shot at breaking Charter.

100% yes - Disney must make a deal. I think there are tons of cable subscribers, many female, that love Hallmark, HGTV, TLC, local news like Spectrum 1, etc that never watch ESPN. They might watch Freeform but its not a deal breaker. If Spectrum can save $15/month per sub, they can hold price flat & make a much larger profit. This is the plan - and it will break ESPN as all the "free-riding" is over. This will also kill ACC Network, SEC Network & when Fox renews, Big Ten Network. The cable companies have reached the breaking point.

M[b]y understanding is that Spectrum isn’t looking to get cheaper[/b]. (Let’s nip that in the bud!) What they want is for the Disney cable fees to also include access to Disney+, Hulu and ESPN+. If I’m running Disney, that’s a 100% non-starter dealbreaker. That is Disney’s most important future business - they’re not just going to give it away to Spectrum and, more importantly, then in turn means that they have to give it to every other cable company due to most favored nation clauses. I don’t blame Spectrum for trying, but that is the type of request that they have to reasonably know would get shot down and is a third rail for Disney.

Those most favored nation clauses are what make it impossible to do a “deal” with one specific provider - when you make a concession to one cable company, you then have to make that exact same concession to every other cable company that you work with. That’s why the cable networks end up in these carriage disputes - their contracts are created to be punitive if they deviate from the terms that they have with other cable carriers, so the network owners have to take a hard line on pricing and other terms.

Who said Spectrum would lower prices? Instead Spectrum decreases Spectrum's cost by $2.2B - if they lose $1B in subs due to Disney/ESPN, Spectrum just made $1.2B more in profit! CEO of the Year! Disney is just the collateral damage. Every future contract will be less for college sports going forward. This is why Disney must make a deal with Spectrum & soon. If Spectrum can survive the Jets Monday Night Game, Spectrum will win.