https://x.com/brett_mcmurphy/status/1697...E0_xipAVQw

Not surprising they would try that first. Its the most profitable option for those two schools. Schools always do what is in their own best interests. The issue is whether they can find 6 schools willing to pay exit fees to move. Maybe they have figured out a way to help with that exit fee expense.

Their only hope is to raid from the AAC and the MWC, obviously. What's also obvious is that they will be unsuccessful... unless conference dissolution takes place.

They will be in the MWC by the end of the month.

(09-01-2023 06:35 PM)Ned Low Wrote:  Their only hope is to raid from the AAC and the MWC, obviously. What's also obvious is that they will be unsuccessful... unless conference dissolution takes place.

They will be in the MWC by the end of the month.

Yep. Take four schools from the MWC (Colorado State, Fresno State, San Diego State, and Boise State) and four schools from the AAC (Memphis, Tulane, Rice, and either UTSA or North Texas) and you've got yourself a league. Also, I personally think a rebuilt PAC should include two AAc schools from Texas so the league would have two guaranteed trips to the Lone Star State if it chooses to stay at ten schools for round robin purposes.

I think the TV networks should bump the MWC tv contract up a bit instead of more & more realignment.

Yeah, Gloria has this in the bag. Sorry Schulz, but you got screwed bigly, largely by your own doing.

Programs like SJSU and FSU become even more crucial for the PAC2 with the CalFurd ties being severed.

(09-01-2023 06:29 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  Not surprising they would try that first. Its the most profitable option for those two schools. Schools always do what is in their own best interests. The issue is whether they can find 6 schools willing to pay exit fees to move. Maybe they have figured out a way to help with that exit fee expense.

Problem is, helping to pay for those exit fees will absorb a very large chunk of the money they hope to make from the Pac-12.

I estimate it'd cost around $200M in exit fees for four schools from each conference to join a rebuild Pac-12 with OSU and WSU. OSU and WSU are probably looking at $65M in distributions to themselves, which is considerably less, and it's spread over 6 years, diminishing as it goes.

It's really hard for me to envision a media provider will to commit to $750M to pay ten G5 schools $12M a year for 6 years. That value isn't there. That media provider isn't there.

These schools will have to abandon this project in a month or so.

I would say it makes no sense for Tulane to give up our decent conference just to join those two inferior schools but the ACC now has two California schools so nothing makes sense anymore. It’s really hard to be a traditional college football fan these days.

Best of luck to them!

I agree with the sentiment on this thread. There is no way for the MWC and AAC candidates to recoup the high exit fees that would be demanded to get this going in 2024

The only other play for OSU and WSU besides working with all 12 MWC schools as a collective is to make a mockery of everything and use the two year waiver to operate as a two team conference to drain every last penny out of the PAC, playing each other multiple times to fill scheduling gaps

But even if you did that where would you be in two years?

You guys are way too pessimistic about the continued existence of a PAC. If there's any lesson from 60 years of realignment, it's that colleges live for excuses to separate themselves from "lesser" schools. This is another opportunity to do that. Schools will take it.

They get a 2 year grace period. They don't even have to be a real conference until 2026. They'll figure it out.

PAC
Washington State
Oregon State
Boise State
Fresno State
San Diego State
Air Force
Tulane
UTSA
Rice
UNLV

AAC
USF
FAU
UAB
Memphis
East Carolina
Charlotte
North Texas
Tulsa
South Florida
Temple
Navy (FB only)
Army (FB only)

MWC
San Jose State
Nevada
Utah State
Wyoming
Colorado State
New Mexico
New Mexico State
UTEP
Hawaii (FB only)

C-USA
Sam Houston State
Louisiana Tech
WKU
EKU (FCS to FBS)
MTSU
Jacksonville State
Kennesaw State
FIU
Liberty

(09-01-2023 07:00 PM)LatahCounty Wrote:  You guys are way too pessimistic about the continued existence of a PAC. If there's any lesson from 60 years of realignment, it's that colleges live for excuses to separate themselves from "lesser" schools. This is another opportunity to do that. Schools will take it.

They get a 2 year grace period. They don't even have to be a real conference until 2026. They'll figure it out.

They have no TV deal at all and have a grand total of 4 games on their schedules for next year. Time is running out fast. Are they going to play each other 5-6 times a season and have no TV deal at all for 2 years? That’s silly stuff.

(09-01-2023 07:00 PM)LatahCounty Wrote:  You guys are way too pessimistic about the continued existence of a PAC. If there's any lesson from 60 years of realignment, it's that colleges live for excuses to separate themselves from "lesser" schools. This is another opportunity to do that. Schools will take it.

They get a 2 year grace period. They don't even have to be a real conference until 2026. They'll figure it out.

Except that they have to have schedules figured out and a media contract for 2024, not 3 years from now. The PAC will survive through a merger with the MWC, but this option is dead in the water barring a miracle.

Edit: Looks like Bonds beat me to it.

SO why can't the 2PAC and MWC merge so OSU,WSU keep the credits and use the MWC tv contract and ask for a little boost w/ the 2 new members.

I hope no MWC schools are dumb enough to fall for this charade. All they have to do is remain united and ultimately OSU and WSU will have to agree to work with them as a group.

Normally I wouldn't have any confidence in any group of schools to work together for their common interest -- history has shown that conference realignment doesn't work that way -- but Nevarez is a smart commissioner and if anyone can successfully herd the cats it's probably her.

(09-01-2023 06:50 PM)Thewavefan Wrote:  I would say it makes no sense for Tulane to give up our decent conference just to join those two inferior schools but the ACC now has two California schools so nothing makes sense anymore. It’s really hard to be a traditional college football fan these days.

Almost all of your "decent conference" is in the Big 12, ACC or Independent now. It's basically you guys, Memphis, and a bunch of CUSA scrubs. I'd get out while the gettin' is good, if the Broke Pac Mountain will have you.

(09-01-2023 07:19 PM)Fresno St. Alum Wrote:  SO why can't the 2PAC and MWC merge so OSU,WSU keep the credits and use the MWC tv contract and ask for a little boost w/ the 2 new members.

That is what I think will happen. Keep PAC exit money and credits. Only question which commissioner goes?

The MWC California schools would listen to what OSU/WSU/PAC have to say.

(09-01-2023 07:20 PM)HawaiiMongoose Wrote:  I hope no MWC schools are dumb enough to fall for this charade. All they have to do is remain united and ultimately OSU and WSU will have to agree to work with them as a group.

Normally I wouldn't have any confidence in any group of schools to work together for their common interest -- history has shown that conference realignment doesn't work that way -- but Nevarez is a smart commissioner and if anyone can successfully herd the cats it's probably her.

Not true, the AAC would have them. However, they told Aresco "no" already. Nevarez still has some hope of an amicable merger rather than an actual raid, but the AAC is losing schools if WOSU want any of them.