(08-30-2023 12:15 PM)Tigx Wrote:  

(08-30-2023 11:59 AM)memtiger1987 Wrote:  

(08-30-2023 10:49 AM)mapdude Wrote:  Joining the PAC #? will kill non revenue sports. Conference travel expenses will be the death bell for them all.

Why? If five AAC teams join, you just have two West Coast teams. Play back to back when you travel west. A couple more hours on Delta. Not a big deal.

So we are chartering flights for the soccer, volleyball, tennis . . . teams to go to Washington State and Oregon State?

Because if we don't, I haven't seen a lot of non-stop Delta flights to Corvallis, Oregon and Pullman, Washington. It's almost a 300 mile drive from Seattle to Pullman.

Oregon State and Washington State are no longer P5 schools. I question the urgency to pursue them.

Unless . . . we can also get the better Mountain West schools and top 4-6 American schools, negotiate a new TV deal, and cut out the dregs of the American Conference. Then we have a decent East West division set up, and don't have to be in a conference with Charlotte or FAU or Rice . . .

It’s not like we’re driving to a lot of the AAC schools now. Fly into Portand (or Spokane for WSU) and bus to the other university. No more than 1-2 trips per year for most sports. Or play back to back games against the same team. Obviously if Stanford and Cal stay, that’s easier to get between universities. Anyway, with some creative scheduling, it’s doable.

I’d think if this comes together, we could pull the best out of the MWC too. Of course, it would need a better media deal than what we have, and I think they could get it. A truly “best of the rest” would be a decent place to land. You’d still hope for better, but we’re in a worse purgatory now.

(08-30-2023 11:59 AM)memtiger1987 Wrote:  

(08-30-2023 10:49 AM)mapdude Wrote:  Joining the PAC #? will kill non revenue sports. Conference travel expenses will be the death bell for them all.

Why? If five AAC teams join, you just have two West Coast teams. Play back to back when you travel west. A couple more hours on Delta. Not a big deal.

In 2025 that number increases significantly.

Flying west would take a large bite of revenue.

Busing would be too physically demanding.

Question would be what kind of TV deal can be made.

Plus our chance of making playoffs decrease.

(08-30-2023 12:36 PM)ncrdbl1 Wrote:  

(08-30-2023 11:59 AM)memtiger1987 Wrote:  

(08-30-2023 10:49 AM)mapdude Wrote:  Joining the PAC #? will kill non revenue sports. Conference travel expenses will be the death bell for them all.

Why? If five AAC teams join, you just have two West Coast teams. Play back to back when you travel west. A couple more hours on Delta. Not a big deal.

In 2025 that number increases significantly.

Flying west would take a large bite of revenue.

Busing would be too physically demanding.

Question would be what kind of TV deal can be made.

Plus our chance of making playoffs decrease.

There are ways to minimize costs, use creative scheduling. Limit travel in non revenue sports. Split into East-west divisions and play primarily in your division.

If WSU and OSU join the MWC, they’ll be the strongest conference outside the P5. They may be now with our depleted conference, so I don’t see the AAC as a lock to make the playoffs in the future. And I’d think they’d pull in some AAC teams that see that this conference is in a death spiral.

(08-30-2023 12:33 PM)memtiger1987 Wrote:  

(08-30-2023 12:15 PM)Tigx Wrote:  

(08-30-2023 11:59 AM)memtiger1987 Wrote:  

(08-30-2023 10:49 AM)mapdude Wrote:  Joining the PAC #? will kill non revenue sports. Conference travel expenses will be the death bell for them all.

Why? If five AAC teams join, you just have two West Coast teams. Play back to back when you travel west. A couple more hours on Delta. Not a big deal.

So we are chartering flights for the soccer, volleyball, tennis . . . teams to go to Washington State and Oregon State?

Because if we don't, I haven't seen a lot of non-stop Delta flights to Corvallis, Oregon and Pullman, Washington. It's almost a 300 mile drive from Seattle to Pullman.

Oregon State and Washington State are no longer P5 schools. I question the urgency to pursue them.

Unless . . . we can also get the better Mountain West schools and top 4-6 American schools, negotiate a new TV deal, and cut out the dregs of the American Conference. Then we have a decent East West division set up, and don't have to be in a conference with Charlotte or FAU or Rice . . .

It’s not like we’re driving to a lot of the AAC schools now. Fly into Portand (or Spokane for WSU) and bus to the other university. No more than 1-2 trips per year for most sports. Or play back to back games against the same team. Obviously if Stanford and Cal stay, that’s easier to get between universities. Anyway, with some creative scheduling, it’s doable.

I’d think if this comes together, we could pull the best out of the MWC too. Of course, it would need a better media deal than what we have, and I think they could get it. A truly “best of the rest” would be a decent place to land. You’d still hope for better, but we’re in a worse purgatory now.

My analysis assumes the ACC deal gets done with Calford.

I just think it's a travel nightmare for the non-revenue sports, like the North Carolina soccer coach, I think, said last week.

I had a nephew play football for Memphis and a niece play soccer for Mississippi State, and the travel time for women's soccer was exponentially higher than for football. It's drudgery. She quit after one season.

(08-30-2023 12:43 PM)memtiger1987 Wrote:  

(08-30-2023 12:36 PM)ncrdbl1 Wrote:  

(08-30-2023 11:59 AM)memtiger1987 Wrote:  

(08-30-2023 10:49 AM)mapdude Wrote:  Joining the PAC #? will kill non revenue sports. Conference travel expenses will be the death bell for them all.

Why? If five AAC teams join, you just have two West Coast teams. Play back to back when you travel west. A couple more hours on Delta. Not a big deal.

In 2025 that number increases significantly.

Flying west would take a large bite of revenue.

Busing would be too physically demanding.

Question would be what kind of TV deal can be made.

Plus our chance of making playoffs decrease.

There are ways to minimize costs, use creative scheduling. Limit travel in non revenue sports. Split into East-west divisions and play primarily in your division.

If WSU and OSU join the MWC, they’ll be the strongest conference outside the P5. They may be now with our depleted conference, so I don’t see the AAC as a lock to make the playoffs in the future. And I’d think they’d pull in some AAC teams that see that this conference is in a death spiral.

If they were to join the MWC it may strengthen the MWC, but it lessens the chance of a team running the table in conference.

It is the highest ranked conference champion.

A slightly weaker conference would make it more likely to be the topped ranked G5 champion.

(08-30-2023 12:47 PM)Tigx Wrote:  

(08-30-2023 12:33 PM)memtiger1987 Wrote:  

(08-30-2023 12:15 PM)Tigx Wrote:  

(08-30-2023 11:59 AM)memtiger1987 Wrote:  

(08-30-2023 10:49 AM)mapdude Wrote:  Joining the PAC #? will kill non revenue sports. Conference travel expenses will be the death bell for them all.

Why? If five AAC teams join, you just have two West Coast teams. Play back to back when you travel west. A couple more hours on Delta. Not a big deal.

So we are chartering flights for the soccer, volleyball, tennis . . . teams to go to Washington State and Oregon State?

Because if we don't, I haven't seen a lot of non-stop Delta flights to Corvallis, Oregon and Pullman, Washington. It's almost a 300 mile drive from Seattle to Pullman.

Oregon State and Washington State are no longer P5 schools. I question the urgency to pursue them.

Unless . . . we can also get the better Mountain West schools and top 4-6 American schools, negotiate a new TV deal, and cut out the dregs of the American Conference. Then we have a decent East West division set up, and don't have to be in a conference with Charlotte or FAU or Rice . . .

It’s not like we’re driving to a lot of the AAC schools now. Fly into Portand (or Spokane for WSU) and bus to the other university. No more than 1-2 trips per year for most sports. Or play back to back games against the same team. Obviously if Stanford and Cal stay, that’s easier to get between universities. Anyway, with some creative scheduling, it’s doable.

I’d think if this comes together, we could pull the best out of the MWC too. Of course, it would need a better media deal than what we have, and I think they could get it. A truly “best of the rest” would be a decent place to land. You’d still hope for better, but we’re in a worse purgatory now.

My analysis assumes the ACC deal gets done with Calford.

I just think it's a travel nightmare for the non-revenue sports, like the North Carolina soccer coach, I think, said last week.

I had a nephew play football for Memphis and a niece play soccer for Mississippi State, and the travel time for women's soccer was exponentially higher than for football. It's drudgery. She quit after one season.

Be smart about it and it’s not much different than before. Cut out most of the longer OOC travel when possible and limit west trips to the maximum extent possible. It’s not like we are next door to anyone now.

(08-30-2023 12:52 PM)ncrdbl1 Wrote:  

(08-30-2023 12:43 PM)memtiger1987 Wrote:  

(08-30-2023 12:36 PM)ncrdbl1 Wrote:  

(08-30-2023 11:59 AM)memtiger1987 Wrote:  

(08-30-2023 10:49 AM)mapdude Wrote:  Joining the PAC #? will kill non revenue sports. Conference travel expenses will be the death bell for them all.

Why? If five AAC teams join, you just have two West Coast teams. Play back to back when you travel west. A couple more hours on Delta. Not a big deal.

In 2025 that number increases significantly.

Flying west would take a large bite of revenue.

Busing would be too physically demanding.

Question would be what kind of TV deal can be made.

Plus our chance of making playoffs decrease.

There are ways to minimize costs, use creative scheduling. Limit travel in non revenue sports. Split into East-west divisions and play primarily in your division.

If WSU and OSU join the MWC, they’ll be the strongest conference outside the P5. They may be now with our depleted conference, so I don’t see the AAC as a lock to make the playoffs in the future. And I’d think they’d pull in some AAC teams that see that this conference is in a death spiral.

If they were to join the MWC it may strengthen the MWC, but it lessens the chance of a team running the table in conference.

It is the highest ranked conference champion.

A slightly weaker conference would make it more likely to be the topped ranked G5 champion.

So, let’s join up with the worst teams in the country so we might go undefeated. That’s the dumbest thing I’ve heard lately.

(08-30-2023 12:43 PM)memtiger1987 Wrote:  

(08-30-2023 12:36 PM)ncrdbl1 Wrote:  

(08-30-2023 11:59 AM)memtiger1987 Wrote:  

(08-30-2023 10:49 AM)mapdude Wrote:  Joining the PAC #? will kill non revenue sports. Conference travel expenses will be the death bell for them all.

Why? If five AAC teams join, you just have two West Coast teams. Play back to back when you travel west. A couple more hours on Delta. Not a big deal.

In 2025 that number increases significantly.

Flying west would take a large bite of revenue.

Busing would be too physically demanding.

Question would be what kind of TV deal can be made.

Plus our chance of making playoffs decrease.

There are ways to minimize costs, use creative scheduling. Limit travel in non revenue sports. Split into East-west divisions and play primarily in your division.

If WSU and OSU join the MWC, they’ll be the strongest conference outside the P5. They may be now with our depleted conference, so I don’t see the AAC as a lock to make the playoffs in the future. And I’d think they’d pull in some AAC teams that see that this conference is in a death spiral.

I still think non-rev travel partners could be a good idea.

Say Memphis and Tulane travel together for west coast swing. Hit multiple schools, say 3 or 4. That way you have 1 round-trip airfare during the season and then buddy up on charters.

I don't know... maybe it's feasible.

(08-30-2023 12:55 PM)memtiger1987 Wrote:  

(08-30-2023 12:52 PM)ncrdbl1 Wrote:  

(08-30-2023 12:43 PM)memtiger1987 Wrote:  

(08-30-2023 12:36 PM)ncrdbl1 Wrote:  

(08-30-2023 11:59 AM)memtiger1987 Wrote:  Why? If five AAC teams join, you just have two West Coast teams. Play back to back when you travel west. A couple more hours on Delta. Not a big deal.

In 2025 that number increases significantly.

Flying west would take a large bite of revenue.

Busing would be too physically demanding.

Question would be what kind of TV deal can be made.

Plus our chance of making playoffs decrease.

There are ways to minimize costs, use creative scheduling. Limit travel in non revenue sports. Split into East-west divisions and play primarily in your division.

If WSU and OSU join the MWC, they’ll be the strongest conference outside the P5. They may be now with our depleted conference, so I don’t see the AAC as a lock to make the playoffs in the future. And I’d think they’d pull in some AAC teams that see that this conference is in a death spiral.

If they were to join the MWC it may strengthen the MWC, but it lessens the chance of a team running the table in conference.

It is the highest ranked conference champion.

A slightly weaker conference would make it more likely to be the topped ranked G5 champion.

So, let’s join up with the worst teams in the country so we might go undefeated. That’s the dumbest thing I’ve heard lately.

As long as you're the highest ranked G5 champion the strength of your conference is irrelevant.

(08-30-2023 01:10 PM)umbluegray Wrote:  

(08-30-2023 12:43 PM)memtiger1987 Wrote:  

(08-30-2023 12:36 PM)ncrdbl1 Wrote:  

(08-30-2023 11:59 AM)memtiger1987 Wrote:  

(08-30-2023 10:49 AM)mapdude Wrote:  Joining the PAC #? will kill non revenue sports. Conference travel expenses will be the death bell for them all.

Why? If five AAC teams join, you just have two West Coast teams. Play back to back when you travel west. A couple more hours on Delta. Not a big deal.

In 2025 that number increases significantly.

Flying west would take a large bite of revenue.

Busing would be too physically demanding.

Question would be what kind of TV deal can be made.

Plus our chance of making playoffs decrease.

There are ways to minimize costs, use creative scheduling. Limit travel in non revenue sports. Split into East-west divisions and play primarily in your division.

If WSU and OSU join the MWC, they’ll be the strongest conference outside the P5. They may be now with our depleted conference, so I don’t see the AAC as a lock to make the playoffs in the future. And I’d think they’d pull in some AAC teams that see that this conference is in a death spiral.

I still think non-rev travel partners could be a good idea.

Say Memphis and Tulane travel together for west coast swing. Hit multiple schools, say 3 or 4. That way you have 1 round-trip airfare during the season and then buddy up on charters.

I don't know... maybe it's feasible.

Would do little to reduce our cost. Unless you play the same teams the same day you will still be traveling to separate locations.

What may work is having west coast hub where eastern teams play in western schools at a single location.

(08-30-2023 11:57 AM)umbluegray Wrote:  

(08-30-2023 11:49 AM)fsquid Wrote:  

(08-30-2023 10:57 AM)Tigx Wrote:  

(08-30-2023 10:39 AM)umbluegray Wrote:  

(08-30-2023 10:28 AM)true_blue_thru_and_thru Wrote:  I just don't see how a conference of AAC/MWC + Wazzu/OSU = higher money then what AAC deal is right now? At least not high enough to compensate for increase travel costs, etc. That's why the SMU deal is bonkers to me. What's the upside of being in a P5 if you receive none of the P5 money for seven years?! They're not in a position to compete in any major sports from the jump so not like they're banking on playoff money or NCAA tourney credits. Hell, in seven years elite of B10/SEC + FSU/Clemson could get smart and start their own damn league by then.

SMU Options

• American
  Year
  
  1. $7M (running total $7M)
  2. $7M (running total $14M)
  3. $7M (running total $21M)
  4. $7M (running total $28M)
  5. $7M (running total $35M)
  6. $7M (running total $42M)
  7. $7M (running total $49M)
  8. $7M (running total $56M)
  9. $7M (running total $63M)
  10. $7M (running total $70M)
      
• ACC
  Year
  
  1. $0 (running total $0)
  2. $0 (running total $0)
  3. $0 (running total $0)
  4. $0 (running total $0)
  5. $0 (running total $0)
  6. $0 (running total $0)
  7. $0 (running total $0)
  8. $39.4M (running total $39.4M)
  9. $39.4M (running total $78.8M)
  10. $39.4M (running total $118.2M)
      

Assuming you can weather the first 7 years, which option would you choose?

Great post, umbluegray. And also, from reports, SMU's conference money won't be zero. They would forego money from the media deal, but SMU would get their share of ACC distributions from the CFP and the NCAA Tournament.

Also, one would assume their attendance would increase with the improved schedule, and SMU likely would be able to increase ticket prices and student fees.

Imo, we shouldn't be criticizing SMU for "buying" their way in, we should be asking our leadership why they haven't been being creative like SMU's leadership.

we've offered that kinda of deal to the Big 12.

Which makes the matter all the worse for us.

If the criteria is media market size, then the answer is grow the media market.

It's why after ESPN torpedoed Cincy and us in 2016, I felt it would never happen.

(08-30-2023 01:26 PM)ncrdbl1 Wrote:  

(08-30-2023 12:55 PM)memtiger1987 Wrote:  

(08-30-2023 12:52 PM)ncrdbl1 Wrote:  

(08-30-2023 12:43 PM)memtiger1987 Wrote:  

(08-30-2023 12:36 PM)ncrdbl1 Wrote:  In 2025 that number increases significantly.

Flying west would take a large bite of revenue.

Busing would be too physically demanding.

Question would be what kind of TV deal can be made.

Plus our chance of making playoffs decrease.

There are ways to minimize costs, use creative scheduling. Limit travel in non revenue sports. Split into East-west divisions and play primarily in your division.

If WSU and OSU join the MWC, they’ll be the strongest conference outside the P5. They may be now with our depleted conference, so I don’t see the AAC as a lock to make the playoffs in the future. And I’d think they’d pull in some AAC teams that see that this conference is in a death spiral.

If they were to join the MWC it may strengthen the MWC, but it lessens the chance of a team running the table in conference.

It is the highest ranked conference champion.

A slightly weaker conference would make it more likely to be the topped ranked G5 champion.

So, let’s join up with the worst teams in the country so we might go undefeated. That’s the dumbest thing I’ve heard lately.

As long as you're the highest ranked G5 champion the strength of your conference is irrelevant.

If your conference is the weakest, the ranking voters won't respect an undefeated schedule above a one-loss from a much stronger conference.

(08-30-2023 01:37 PM)fsquid Wrote:  

(08-30-2023 11:57 AM)umbluegray Wrote:  

(08-30-2023 11:49 AM)fsquid Wrote:  

(08-30-2023 10:57 AM)Tigx Wrote:  

(08-30-2023 10:39 AM)umbluegray Wrote:  SMU Options

• American
  Year
  
  1. $7M (running total $7M)
  2. $7M (running total $14M)
  3. $7M (running total $21M)
  4. $7M (running total $28M)
  5. $7M (running total $35M)
  6. $7M (running total $42M)
  7. $7M (running total $49M)
  8. $7M (running total $56M)
  9. $7M (running total $63M)
  10. $7M (running total $70M)
      
• ACC
  Year
  
  1. $0 (running total $0)
  2. $0 (running total $0)
  3. $0 (running total $0)
  4. $0 (running total $0)
  5. $0 (running total $0)
  6. $0 (running total $0)
  7. $0 (running total $0)
  8. $39.4M (running total $39.4M)
  9. $39.4M (running total $78.8M)
  10. $39.4M (running total $118.2M)
      

Assuming you can weather the first 7 years, which option would you choose?

Great post, umbluegray. And also, from reports, SMU's conference money won't be zero. They would forego money from the media deal, but SMU would get their share of ACC distributions from the CFP and the NCAA Tournament.

Also, one would assume their attendance would increase with the improved schedule, and SMU likely would be able to increase ticket prices and student fees.

Imo, we shouldn't be criticizing SMU for "buying" their way in, we should be asking our leadership why they haven't been being creative like SMU's leadership.

we've offered that kinda of deal to the Big 12.

Which makes the matter all the worse for us.

If the criteria is media market size, then the answer is grow the media market.

It's why after ESPN torpedoed Cincy and us in 2016, I felt it would never happen.

Basically, the reason I'm pro-BOC isn't because I think EV is the way to go. It's strictly because of the impact it's going to have on the growth of the area.


People see Memphis Metropolitan Area population of 1.4 M.

If next census results in Memphis & Jackson being combined with a few other counties added along with incoming growth, then people will see Memphis Metropolitan Area population of 2 M.

And they'll see a 2020 to 2030 positive growth rate of 40% (or some ridiculously high nbr).

Any growth rate around 15-20% is significant. For example...

Top 10 Fastest Growing Large Metro Areas

Metro Area - Projected Population Growth Rate

1. Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX - 13.55%
2. Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX - 9.62%
3. Nashville-Davidson-Murfreesboro-Franklin, TN - 9.39%
4. Raleigh-Durham, NC - 9.31%
5. Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX - 8.64%
6. Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL - 8.25%
7. Salt Lake City, UT - 8.23%
8. Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC - 8.16%
9. Jacksonville, FL - 7.48%
10. Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA - 6.62%
    

Imagine seeing Memphis-Jackson TN-AR-MS in this list, maybe even in the Top 3.

That alone will generate huge amounts of buzz. And the right leadership will be ready to capitalize on this.


yeah, I know.... I said "right leadership" while talking about Memphis.

(08-30-2023 01:37 PM)fsquid Wrote:  

(08-30-2023 11:57 AM)umbluegray Wrote:  

(08-30-2023 11:49 AM)fsquid Wrote:  

(08-30-2023 10:57 AM)Tigx Wrote:  

(08-30-2023 10:39 AM)umbluegray Wrote:  SMU Options

• American
  Year
  
  1. $7M (running total $7M)
  2. $7M (running total $14M)
  3. $7M (running total $21M)
  4. $7M (running total $28M)
  5. $7M (running total $35M)
  6. $7M (running total $42M)
  7. $7M (running total $49M)
  8. $7M (running total $56M)
  9. $7M (running total $63M)
  10. $7M (running total $70M)
      
• ACC
  Year
  
  1. $0 (running total $0)
  2. $0 (running total $0)
  3. $0 (running total $0)
  4. $0 (running total $0)
  5. $0 (running total $0)
  6. $0 (running total $0)
  7. $0 (running total $0)
  8. $39.4M (running total $39.4M)
  9. $39.4M (running total $78.8M)
  10. $39.4M (running total $118.2M)
      

Assuming you can weather the first 7 years, which option would you choose?

Great post, umbluegray. And also, from reports, SMU's conference money won't be zero. They would forego money from the media deal, but SMU would get their share of ACC distributions from the CFP and the NCAA Tournament.

Also, one would assume their attendance would increase with the improved schedule, and SMU likely would be able to increase ticket prices and student fees.

Imo, we shouldn't be criticizing SMU for "buying" their way in, we should be asking our leadership why they haven't been being creative like SMU's leadership.

we've offered that kinda of deal to the Big 12.

Which makes the matter all the worse for us.

If the criteria is media market size, then the answer is grow the media market.

It's why after ESPN torpedoed Cincy and us in 2016, I felt it would never happen.

More 'ESPN torpedoed us' nonsense. The 2nd dumbest thing repeated after "Boren told us we were in." As if ESPN cares enough about us to bother to torpedo us.

The presidents in each conference make the decisions. The TV partners tell them what they will pay. ESPN or FOX didn't make the Pac 12 implode, their dumb*** commissioner turning down $30M per school from ESPN did. ESPN sure as hell wanted the Pac12 deal, because now they have no West coast content.

And ESPN isn't telling the ACC what to do either, or the ACC would have invited CalFord weeks ago.

(08-30-2023 01:26 PM)ncrdbl1 Wrote:  

(08-30-2023 12:55 PM)memtiger1987 Wrote:  

(08-30-2023 12:52 PM)ncrdbl1 Wrote:  

(08-30-2023 12:43 PM)memtiger1987 Wrote:  

(08-30-2023 12:36 PM)ncrdbl1 Wrote:  In 2025 that number increases significantly.

Flying west would take a large bite of revenue.

Busing would be too physically demanding.

Question would be what kind of TV deal can be made.

Plus our chance of making playoffs decrease.

There are ways to minimize costs, use creative scheduling. Limit travel in non revenue sports. Split into East-west divisions and play primarily in your division.

If WSU and OSU join the MWC, they’ll be the strongest conference outside the P5. They may be now with our depleted conference, so I don’t see the AAC as a lock to make the playoffs in the future. And I’d think they’d pull in some AAC teams that see that this conference is in a death spiral.

If they were to join the MWC it may strengthen the MWC, but it lessens the chance of a team running the table in conference.

It is the highest ranked conference champion.

A slightly weaker conference would make it more likely to be the topped ranked G5 champion.

So, let’s join up with the worst teams in the country so we might go undefeated. That’s the dumbest thing I’ve heard lately.

As long as you're the highest ranked G5 champion the strength of your conference is irrelevant.

Probably be tough to be the highest ranked G5 champion if your conference sucks and your schedule is filled with cupcakes.

(08-30-2023 10:39 AM)umbluegray Wrote:  

(08-30-2023 10:28 AM)true_blue_thru_and_thru Wrote:  

(08-30-2023 09:58 AM)aardWolf Wrote:  

(08-30-2023 09:40 AM)umbluegray Wrote:  I can't help but wonder if they've passed the window of keeping their NCAA Member Conference status.

If they have, maybe there's an appeal/exception process.

They still have their existing members until next football season, if I'm not mistaken. So it's starting in 2024 that they would have an issue with not having enough teams to be a conference. That's why the talk of adding AAC teams immediately to meet the minimum requirement, then adding MWC schools the following year to limit fees for leaving.

I just don't see how a conference of AAC/MWC + Wazzu/OSU = higher money then what AAC deal is right now? At least not high enough to compensate for increase travel costs, etc. That's why the SMU deal is bonkers to me. What's the upside of being in a P5 if you receive none of the P5 money for seven years?! They're not in a position to compete in any major sports from the jump so not like they're banking on playoff money or NCAA tourney credits. Hell, in seven years elite of B10/SEC + FSU/Clemson could get smart and start their own damn league by then.

SMU Options

• American
  Year
  
  1. $7M (running total $7M)
  2. $7M (running total $14M)
  3. $7M (running total $21M)
  4. $7M (running total $28M)
  5. $7M (running total $35M)
  6. $7M (running total $42M)
  7. $7M (running total $49M)
  8. $7M (running total $56M)
  9. $7M (running total $63M)
  10. $7M (running total $70M)
      
• ACC
  Year
  
  1. $0 (running total $0)
  2. $0 (running total $0)
  3. $0 (running total $0)
  4. $0 (running total $0)
  5. $0 (running total $0)
  6. $0 (running total $0)
  7. $0 (running total $0)
  8. $39.4M (running total $39.4M)
  9. $39.4M (running total $78.8M)
  10. $39.4M (running total $118.2M)
      

Assuming you can weather the first 7 years, which option would you choose?

If those #s hold true, SMU has made a strong long term play if they are accepted ( I am still doubtful myself that ACC takes them at current time)

It will be interesting to revisit this in 10 years and see how it played out. I suspect at some point in that timeframe the more valuable ACC teams find their way out & into either the SEC or B1G. When that happens will the $39.4M payout still be there in years 8-10? Once the B1G & SEC have all the high value schools how are the networks going to be able to afford to keep or raise the current per team premium in those conferences? Their budgets aren’t expanding unlimitedly like some of the realignment posts seem to assume. Will they force those conferences to remove some of the deadweight? Or will they then turn to the ACC & B12 & give them a haircut? I think conference politics prevent the 1st from happening at least for as long as possible, so I would expect a rebuilt ACC to receive a haircut. Also remember ESPN offered the PAC over $30M per team initially but when they said no, they basically gave that money to the B12 & offered them pro rata to add existing PAC schools & never came close to offering that kind of money to PAC again. The B12 is about to go through a television cycle without either of the core brands that have boosted their ratings in the past in their lineup. If their viewership regresses, a haircut for them could be in cards too. End result being more money ending up in SEC & B1G at the expense of everyone else, especially conferences who have lost teams to them.

(08-30-2023 02:13 PM)Tigx Wrote:  

(08-30-2023 01:37 PM)fsquid Wrote:  

(08-30-2023 11:57 AM)umbluegray Wrote:  

(08-30-2023 11:49 AM)fsquid Wrote:  

(08-30-2023 10:57 AM)Tigx Wrote:  Great post, umbluegray. And also, from reports, SMU's conference money won't be zero. They would forego money from the media deal, but SMU would get their share of ACC distributions from the CFP and the NCAA Tournament.

Also, one would assume their attendance would increase with the improved schedule, and SMU likely would be able to increase ticket prices and student fees.

Imo, we shouldn't be criticizing SMU for "buying" their way in, we should be asking our leadership why they haven't been being creative like SMU's leadership.

we've offered that kinda of deal to the Big 12.

Which makes the matter all the worse for us.

If the criteria is media market size, then the answer is grow the media market.

It's why after ESPN torpedoed Cincy and us in 2016, I felt it would never happen.

More 'ESPN torpedoed us' nonsense. The 2nd dumbest thing repeated after "Boren told us we were in." As if ESPN cares enough about us to bother to torpedo us.

The presidents in each conference make the decisions. The TV partners tell them what they will pay. ESPN or FOX didn't make the Pac 12 implode, their dumb*** commissioner turning down $30M per school from ESPN did. ESPN sure as hell wanted the Pac12 deal, because now they have no West coast content.

And ESPN isn't telling the ACC what to do either, or the ACC would have invited CalFord weeks ago.

In 2016, the Big 12's TV contract said if they added anyone, no matter who, the amount paid per university would be the same. When ESPN learned that the Big 12 was thinking of adding us and Cincy, they offered to up the existing school's amount of money and redo the contract. That is why now the Big 12's TV deal says if they add a P5 school, the amount per school remains the same. If they add a G5 school, ESPN aggregate contract amount doesn't change.

That's what happened and I've heard it from 4 different people. I can lead you to the pond but can't make you jump in.

(08-30-2023 03:37 PM)fsquid Wrote:  

(08-30-2023 02:13 PM)Tigx Wrote:  

(08-30-2023 01:37 PM)fsquid Wrote:  

(08-30-2023 11:57 AM)umbluegray Wrote:  

(08-30-2023 11:49 AM)fsquid Wrote:  we've offered that kinda of deal to the Big 12.

Which makes the matter all the worse for us.

If the criteria is media market size, then the answer is grow the media market.

It's why after ESPN torpedoed Cincy and us in 2016, I felt it would never happen.

More 'ESPN torpedoed us' nonsense. The 2nd dumbest thing repeated after "Boren told us we were in." As if ESPN cares enough about us to bother to torpedo us.

The presidents in each conference make the decisions. The TV partners tell them what they will pay. ESPN or FOX didn't make the Pac 12 implode, their dumb*** commissioner turning down $30M per school from ESPN did. ESPN sure as hell wanted the Pac12 deal, because now they have no West coast content.

And ESPN isn't telling the ACC what to do either, or the ACC would have invited CalFord weeks ago.

In 2016, the Big 12's TV contract said if they added anyone, no matter who, the amount paid per university would be the same. When ESPN learned that the Big 12 was thinking of adding us and Cincy, they offered to up the existing school's amount of money and redo the contract. That is why now the Big 12's TV deal says if they add a P5 school, the amount per school remains the same. If they add a G5 school, ESPN aggregate contract amount doesn't change.

That's what happened and I've heard it from 4 different people. I can lead you to the pond but can't make you jump in.

You can push, though.

(08-30-2023 02:15 PM)memtigbb Wrote:  

(08-30-2023 01:26 PM)ncrdbl1 Wrote:  

(08-30-2023 12:55 PM)memtiger1987 Wrote:  

(08-30-2023 12:52 PM)ncrdbl1 Wrote:  

(08-30-2023 12:43 PM)memtiger1987 Wrote:  There are ways to minimize costs, use creative scheduling. Limit travel in non revenue sports. Split into East-west divisions and play primarily in your division.

If WSU and OSU join the MWC, they’ll be the strongest conference outside the P5. They may be now with our depleted conference, so I don’t see the AAC as a lock to make the playoffs in the future. And I’d think they’d pull in some AAC teams that see that this conference is in a death spiral.

If they were to join the MWC it may strengthen the MWC, but it lessens the chance of a team running the table in conference.

It is the highest ranked conference champion.

A slightly weaker conference would make it more likely to be the topped ranked G5 champion.

So, let’s join up with the worst teams in the country so we might go undefeated. That’s the dumbest thing I’ve heard lately.

As long as you're the highest ranked G5 champion the strength of your conference is irrelevant.

Probably be tough to be the highest ranked G5 champion if your conference sucks and your schedule is filled with cupcakes.

Believe me the voters in the polls don't go that far into details when you're talking G5 school. In the coaches polls many of the polls are filled out by grad assistants.
In the writers they look at records. No one does any indepth research of league or schedule.

(08-30-2023 05:07 PM)umbluegray Wrote:  

(08-30-2023 03:37 PM)fsquid Wrote:  

(08-30-2023 02:13 PM)Tigx Wrote:  

(08-30-2023 01:37 PM)fsquid Wrote:  

(08-30-2023 11:57 AM)umbluegray Wrote:  Which makes the matter all the worse for us.

If the criteria is media market size, then the answer is grow the media market.

It's why after ESPN torpedoed Cincy and us in 2016, I felt it would never happen.

More 'ESPN torpedoed us' nonsense. The 2nd dumbest thing repeated after "Boren told us we were in." As if ESPN cares enough about us to bother to torpedo us.

The presidents in each conference make the decisions. The TV partners tell them what they will pay. ESPN or FOX didn't make the Pac 12 implode, their dumb*** commissioner turning down $30M per school from ESPN did. ESPN sure as hell wanted the Pac12 deal, because now they have no West coast content.

And ESPN isn't telling the ACC what to do either, or the ACC would have invited CalFord weeks ago.

In 2016, the Big 12's TV contract said if they added anyone, no matter who, the amount paid per university would be the same. When ESPN learned that the Big 12 was thinking of adding us and Cincy, they offered to up the existing school's amount of money and redo the contract. That is why now the Big 12's TV deal says if they add a P5 school, the amount per school remains the same. If they add a G5 school, ESPN aggregate contract amount doesn't change.

That's what happened and I've heard it from 4 different people. I can lead you to the pond but can't make you jump in.

You can push, though.

Kick in the butt?

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