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https://twitter.com/KFordRatings/status/...3910065256

So an ~80% of 4-7 wins. I think that's realistic. Hopefully we hit the top end <1% outcomes !!

Im drinking the koolaid(with a lil bit of alcohol)

12-2.

Losing to UGA
Loss at top 25 UTSA.
Win rematch in San Antonio over top 15 UTSA in AAC championship

Big ass bowl game, with win. Top 20 ranking to finish the season.

Give me the over Cotton.

I drank 11 pints of SnakeHandler, 7 shots of MakersMark, pulled out all my UAB mementos, scattered it and rolled around on the floor in it as I watched our LSU win over Saban on youtube.

still only see 7-5 best case scenario.

Bowl game is a huge win this year. It's year one with Dilfer and we gotta be prepared to not overhype this year

It's really tough to say until we actually see this team in live action. What I will say is they currently have us as favorites or less than 5 point dogs in 9 of the 12 games. That means we have 9 pretty winnable games prior to the season starting.

We all know we aren't beating Georgia, so that's the one L on our schedule. The question then becomes how much better are UTSA and Tulane than us? Tulane is replacing a whole lot on offense, and if replacements aren't ready, I could see them having a worse year than most seem to be expecting. We played UTSA really well the past 2 years, even though we lost the games. I still think we have a good chance of doing that again this year. We get them midway through the season, so we should be working out the kinks by then. I still think this is a 5-7 win team in year one, but a path to 9 wins definitely exists and isn't out of the question in my mind.

Games against Georgia Southern and Louisiana will tell us a lot. Need to win those.

For now, I’m going with 6-6
Undefeated at home, winless on the road

Hopefully I’m proven wrong in week 2

I'm a sports pessimist. So to me, if you take a .500 team and tell me you are stripping it of its entire offensive line, its most athletic guy in the secondary, its leading sack getter and its NFL running back, making the remaining team learn entirely new offensive and defensive schemes under a new staff then making it play a much tougher schedule...

Well, I think getting back to .500 is a monumentous achievement and a win for the new staff.

(08-25-2023 09:42 AM)DuelingDragon Wrote:  Games against Georgia Southern and Louisiana will tell us a lot. Need to win those.

Yep, let's not have the GSU game as a continuation of the past where we lose the first away game of the season.

Napier's Louisiana team would make me worry (still can't believe they were the ones to break our home streak ), but we should beat this Louisiana team.

(08-24-2023 11:05 PM)UABFAN23 Wrote:  Im drinking the koolaid(with a lil bit of alcohol)

12-2.

Losing to UGA
Loss at top 25 UTSA.
Win rematch in San Antonio over top 15 UTSA in AAC championship

Big ass bowl game, with win. Top 20 ranking to finish the season.

A lot of folks are predicting UTSA and Tulane against each other in a rematch in the championship, but I don't see it. I'm in the camp where the rich ponies that want to leave for no money, SMU, make it the championship game. They have the easiest conference schedule and are not playing UTSA nor Tulane.
They have the easiest path to the championship unfortunately.

So many new coaches and big roster turnover. Tulane and UTSA are safe bets because of their quarterbacks and coaching stability but I am already sick of hearing how much tougher the AAC is. We played these teams for a decade+ before. UCF, Houston and Cincinnati are gone. Tulane went from 2-10 to winning the league last year. It isn’t some huge leap. We curb stomped that same Tulane group and should have beaten UTSA 6 years running.

Skip me with the UAB falling off a cliff or can’t compete with these teams. We may struggle due to inexperience, or not, but we aren’t going to be out of our league here.

If we are worried about anybody before Tulane (not named UGA), we are in trouble. I do not get that impression from anybody surrounding our program. Staff or players.

One thing we’ve yet to have in this return, is the “will to win”. We have always approached it as “try to hang on.”

We’ve got a staff that wants to go out and put up points. That alone has me excited.

(08-25-2023 09:44 AM)LairDweller Wrote:  For now, I’m going with 6-6
Undefeated at home, winless on the road

Hopefully I’m proven wrong in week 2

If our D is effective against the run, a road win at Navy is definitely in the cards. They have only 2 QBs with college experience, both of whom are run-first in Navy's traditional triple-option set. New HC Newberry isn't expected to be changing that.

Navy tries to wear the D-line and backers out before halftime and take advantage of heavy legs in the 2nd half. They only have one 300-pounder on their O-line and no one taller than 6'4"

Both of these QBs are expected to play this weekend against Notre Dame:

https://navysports.com/sports/football/r...atai/24140
career 76 of 152 passing vs. 285 run attempts

https://navysports.com/sports/football/r...line/24043
career 15 of 41 passing vs. 222 run attempts

2 sophomores have never played and there are 5 freshman QBs on the roster.

Navy doesnt want tall, heavy offensive linemen, their lineman are diving at the defenders knees all game and so they want quicker, smaller o-line that can get to a spot and cut block.

A good primer on the their flex-bone:

Where are the WRs?

How did that go? "Three things can happen when you throw the ball, and two of them are bad."

(08-25-2023 02:36 PM)BlazerMatt Wrote:  Navy doesnt want tall, heavy offensive linemen, their lineman are diving at the defenders knees all game and so they want quicker, smaller o-line that can get to a spot and cut block.

A good primer on the their flex-bone:

(08-27-2023 05:13 PM)notnow Wrote:  Where are the WRs?

An easy win for us on Veterans Day

(08-25-2023 09:44 AM)LairDweller Wrote:  For now, I’m going with 6-6
Undefeated at home, winless on the road

Hopefully I’m proven wrong in week 2

well...it took until week 3 to be proven wrong

Now I'm going 4-8...home wins against USF, FAU, Temple