Many folks on the board seem to think that at the end of the ACC GOR, the B12 will have the ability to raid the ACC. I don't see why anyone thinks the B12 is in a better position to do the raiding. I could see it in case that the P2 grab the leading schools out of the ACC, but that may not happen, or may not happen to the degree that people on here believe.

Few schools, beyond Notre Dame have enough value at this point to increase the payout to existing SEC or B1G schools if they were added in expansion. Further, the P2 have expanded to the already unwieldy sizes of 16 and 18 schools respectively. With the decline of the cable TV industry, adding states to the conference footprint will become less and less important. Adding the states of North Carolina and Virginia as in market states for the SEC or B1G won't have the same value as it does today. I don't see the P2 as interested in simply growing in order to cover every available state in the country. They expand to add value for their existing members.

The only play I could see the SEC interested in would be adding UNC and UVA, or possibly a four school combo of UNC/UVA/VT/Duke. This would expand the footprint into the only southeastern states that don't currently have SEC schools. Clemson and Florida State could also be on the table as schools with significant fan bases and brand value. All of these schools may be able to justify receiving a payout equal to what the SEC generates per school, but again, none would appear likely to increase the payout to existing SEC schools.

The B1G is even more constrained at 18 schools. I can't see them looking at more than 2 more. The one they would take in a heartbeat would be Notre Dame and Stanford. UNC and UVA would be another strong add, but again the need to expand footprint for the BTN is unlikely to be a key driver. They would also benefit from some presence in Florida, which would make the pair of FSU and the U a potentially viable combination, but would add even more travel issues than the conference already has.

Thus, I think there is a real possibility that the B1G and SEC do nothing at the termination of the ACC GOR. However, leading members of the ACC and B12 will be interested in increasing their payouts to a level closer to those of the P2. To accomplish this, the best strategy may be for the top schools in each league to withdraw and to form a new league. Key factors will be historic success, market size, and brand value. Here's my first shot at what such a conference might look like:

Definite invitation:

- FSU - Brand, historic success, has a statewide following in 3rd largest state with great recruiting area
- The U - Same as FSU, but more market area is limited to populous Miami/Ft. Lauderdale/West Palm area, which is also one of the best recruiting markets in the country
- Clemson - Brand, historic success, statewide following in a mid sized state
- UNC - Leading brand in basketball, flagship of 2nd largest state without a P2 member school
- UVA - Flagship of 3rd largest state without a P2 member school
- TCU - Historic success, located in the second largest state, the number 5 TV market, and one of the best recruiting markets in the country
- Baylor - Historic success, located in the second largest state

Next group:
- GT - Statewide following in a large state, located in the number 6 TV market, and one of the best recruiting areas in the country
- Arizona - Flagship of the 4th largest state without a P2 member, historically strong in hoops
- Colorado - Flagship of the 6th largest state without a P2 member
- VT - Historic success, great fan base, statewide following in 3rd largest state without a P2 member
- Syracuse - Located in largest state without a P2 school, strong following in Upstate NY, which is as large as a mid sized state itself, historically strong in hoops
- Kansas - Leading brand in basketball
- Duke - Leading brand in basketball, located in 2nd largest state without a P2 member

Third group
- TTU - Located in the second largest state
- ASU - Statewide following in the 4th largest state without a P2 member, located in the 11th largest TV market
- Ok. State - historic success

Running out of steam, but you get the point. As I write this, though, the other possibility would be for the ACC to raid the B12, grabbing TCU and Baylor, as they should have tried to do after Texas and OU left the B12.

Sorry for posting twice. Moderators, please delete one.

FSU has a huge national following, not just state-wide. Even when down. Clemson too and Miami to some extent, and certainly when on top. Let's take a look at the TV numbers just this coming season just about any game let alone the big ones like the LSU opener. People watch the Noles whether they love 'em or hate 'em. If they get into the SEC...I wouldn't be surprised if they become #1 in FL in TV viewership. It would be nuts.

I'd move KU up into the first group. Large state school that is geographically central, near a major midwest media market and top 3 basketball blue blood brand. Yeah football is lacking, but I think there is potential (new stadium and other investments could help). I have a hard time seeing KU left out of any "3rd" conference and I think they have a shot at the Big 10 or SEC in some scenarios.

(08-23-2023 02:24 PM)orangefan Wrote:  Many folks on the board seem to think that at the end of the ACC GOR, the B12 will have the ability to raid the ACC.

No, we know that the B1G and the SEC will be raiding the ACC, big time. Just like the B1G just raided their long-time partner, the PAC.

The Big XII is here to offer homes to some of the leftbehinds if they play their cards well. Later (2036), or very possibly sooner. Maybe much sooner.

It depends on how many ACC schools get raided by the P2. I could see that number being as low as 4 or as high as 9. At the lower end, the remainder of the conference probably stays together. At the higher end, it will become every man for himself among the leftovers, with schools fighting each other for a Big XII invite.

(08-23-2023 03:30 PM)tf8693 Wrote:  It depends on how many ACC schools get raided by the P2. I could see that number being as low as 4 or as high as 9. At the lower end, the remainder of the conference probably stays together. At the higher end, it will become every man for himself among the leftovers, with schools fighting each other for a Big XII invite.

I, too, have a 4-9 window.

For sure out: Boston College, Louisville, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Wake Forest.
Probably in: Duke, Miami, North Carolina St, Virginia Tech
For sure in: Clemson, Florida St, North Carolina, Virginia.
For sure in if they want to be: Notre Dame.
I have no idea: Georgia Tech.

(08-23-2023 04:26 PM)BePcr07 Wrote:  

(08-23-2023 03:30 PM)tf8693 Wrote:  It depends on how many ACC schools get raided by the P2. I could see that number being as low as 4 or as high as 9. At the lower end, the remainder of the conference probably stays together. At the higher end, it will become every man for himself among the leftovers, with schools fighting each other for a Big XII invite.

I, too, have a 4-9 window.

For sure out: Boston College, Louisville, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Wake Forest.
Probably in: Duke, Miami, North Carolina St, Virginia Tech
For sure in: Clemson, Florida St, North Carolina, Virginia.
For sure in if they want to be: Notre Dame.
I have no idea: Georgia Tech.

I agree with both of you and my list is pretty much the same as the one above. These are my small tweaks for my view.

For sure out: Boston College, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Wake Forest
Probably out: Louisville
Probably in: Duke, Georgia Tech, North Carolina St, Virginia Tech
For sure in: Clemson, Florida St, Miami, North Carolina, Virginia
For sure in if they want to be: Notre Dame

(08-23-2023 05:03 PM)Alanda Wrote:  

(08-23-2023 04:26 PM)BePcr07 Wrote:  

(08-23-2023 03:30 PM)tf8693 Wrote:  It depends on how many ACC schools get raided by the P2. I could see that number being as low as 4 or as high as 9. At the lower end, the remainder of the conference probably stays together. At the higher end, it will become every man for himself among the leftovers, with schools fighting each other for a Big XII invite.

I, too, have a 4-9 window.

For sure out: Boston College, Louisville, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Wake Forest.
Probably in: Duke, Miami, North Carolina St, Virginia Tech
For sure in: Clemson, Florida St, North Carolina, Virginia.
For sure in if they want to be: Notre Dame.
I have no idea: Georgia Tech.

I agree with both of you and my list is pretty much the same as the one above. These are my small tweaks for my view.

For sure out: Boston College, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Wake Forest
Probably out: Louisville
Probably in: Duke, Georgia Tech, North Carolina St, Virginia Tech
For sure in: Clemson, Florida St, Miami, North Carolina, Virginia
For sure in if they want to be: Notre Dame

Here's the way I would break it down:

For sure out: Boston College, Louisville, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Wake Forest
Could be in or could be out, depending on how things break and the wishes of the P2: Duke, Georgia Tech, North Carolina State, Virginia Tech (but at least one of Duke and North Carolina State is a close to 100% possibility)
Almost certainly in, but less than 100%: Miami
For sure in: Clemson, Florida State, North Carolina, Virginia
For sure in if they want to be: Notre Dame

If the rumors are true, and the ACC adds Cal, Stanford and SMU, then put SMU in the first category and Cal and Stanford in the second.

(08-23-2023 02:24 PM)orangefan Wrote:  Definite invitation:

- FSU - Brand, historic success, has a statewide following in 3rd largest state with great recruiting area
- The U - Same as FSU, but more market area is limited to populous Miami/Ft. Lauderdale/West Palm area, which is also one of the best recruiting markets in the country
- Clemson - Brand, historic success, statewide following in a mid sized state
- UNC - Leading brand in basketball, flagship of 2nd largest state without a P2 member school
- UVA - Flagship of 3rd largest state without a P2 member school
- TCU - Historic success, located in the second largest state, the number 5 TV market, and one of the best recruiting markets in the country
- Baylor - Historic success, located in the second largest state

TCU and Baylor "historic success"???? 2021 and this past January's win over Michigan are considered historic success now? Have I fallen asleep and it's 2070 now? What success did TCU or Baylor have before 2021 in football or men's basketball?

(08-23-2023 06:07 PM)schmolik Wrote:  

(08-23-2023 02:24 PM)orangefan Wrote:  Definite invitation:

- FSU - Brand, historic success, has a statewide following in 3rd largest state with great recruiting area
- The U - Same as FSU, but more market area is limited to populous Miami/Ft. Lauderdale/West Palm area, which is also one of the best recruiting markets in the country
- Clemson - Brand, historic success, statewide following in a mid sized state
- UNC - Leading brand in basketball, flagship of 2nd largest state without a P2 member school
- UVA - Flagship of 3rd largest state without a P2 member school
- TCU - Historic success, located in the second largest state, the number 5 TV market, and one of the best recruiting markets in the country
- Baylor - Historic success, located in the second largest state

TCU and Baylor "historic success"???? 2021 and this past January's win over Michigan are considered historic success now? Have I fallen asleep and it's 2070 now? What success did TCU or Baylor have before 2021 in football or men's basketball?

Baylor won the MBB championship in 2021. TCU has won the Peach, the Rose, and the Fiesta Bowls in the past 12 years and is in the DFW area.

(08-23-2023 06:07 PM)schmolik Wrote:  

(08-23-2023 02:24 PM)orangefan Wrote:  Definite invitation:

- FSU - Brand, historic success, has a statewide following in 3rd largest state with great recruiting area
- The U - Same as FSU, but more market area is limited to populous Miami/Ft. Lauderdale/West Palm area, which is also one of the best recruiting markets in the country
- Clemson - Brand, historic success, statewide following in a mid sized state
- UNC - Leading brand in basketball, flagship of 2nd largest state without a P2 member school
- UVA - Flagship of 3rd largest state without a P2 member school
- TCU - Historic success, located in the second largest state, the number 5 TV market, and one of the best recruiting markets in the country
- Baylor - Historic success, located in the second largest state

TCU and Baylor "historic success"???? 2021 and this past January's win over Michigan are considered historic success now? Have I fallen asleep and it's 2070 now? What success did TCU or Baylor have before 2021 in football or men's basketball?

I had the exact same thought. Baylor for a long, long time was considered the dormat of the Big 12. Then they finally got good which was followed by big time scandals that got their coach fired. IF I was the ACC I would run away from Baylor as fast as possible. It's history is Bad! For many different reasons.

Now TCU I would give a little more credit. Originally left behind by the Big 12, they literally played themselves into a P5 conference. But that's more of a good underdog story then a historically strong program. Remember there was a, reason the original Big 12 left them behind.

One final thought. Don't sleep on Iowa State. Decent academics that the ACC likes and great football attendence in one of the larger football stadiums in the ACC/Big 12. But unfortunately Iowa St has no history as a football power.

(08-23-2023 07:42 PM)Big Frog II Wrote:  

(08-23-2023 06:07 PM)schmolik Wrote:  

(08-23-2023 02:24 PM)orangefan Wrote:  Definite invitation:

- FSU - Brand, historic success, has a statewide following in 3rd largest state with great recruiting area
- The U - Same as FSU, but more market area is limited to populous Miami/Ft. Lauderdale/West Palm area, which is also one of the best recruiting markets in the country
- Clemson - Brand, historic success, statewide following in a mid sized state
- UNC - Leading brand in basketball, flagship of 2nd largest state without a P2 member school
- UVA - Flagship of 3rd largest state without a P2 member school
- TCU - Historic success, located in the second largest state, the number 5 TV market, and one of the best recruiting markets in the country
- Baylor - Historic success, located in the second largest state

TCU and Baylor "historic success"???? 2021 and this past January's win over Michigan are considered historic success now? Have I fallen asleep and it's 2070 now? What success did TCU or Baylor have before 2021 in football or men's basketball?

Baylor won the MBB championship in 2021. TCU has won the Peach, the Rose, and the Fiesta Bowls in the past 12 years and is in the DFW area.

Even the last 12 years would not by most standards be considered historic.

(08-23-2023 02:24 PM)orangefan Wrote:  Many folks on the board seem to think that at the end of the ACC GOR, the B12 will have the ability to raid the ACC. I don't see why anyone thinks the B12 is in a better position to do the raiding. I could see it in case that the P2 grab the leading schools out of the ACC, but that may not happen, or may not happen to the degree that people on here believe.

Few schools, beyond Notre Dame have enough value at this point to increase the payout to existing SEC or B1G schools if they were added in expansion. Further, the P2 have expanded to the already unwieldy sizes of 16 and 18 schools respectively. With the decline of the cable TV industry, adding states to the conference footprint will become less and less important. Adding the states of North Carolina and Virginia as in market states for the SEC or B1G won't have the same value as it does today. I don't see the P2 as interested in simply growing in order to cover every available state in the country. They expand to add value for their existing members.

The only play I could see the SEC interested in would be adding UNC and UVA, or possibly a four school combo of UNC/UVA/VT/Duke. This would expand the footprint into the only southeastern states that don't currently have SEC schools. Clemson and Florida State could also be on the table as schools with significant fan bases and brand value. All of these schools may be able to justify receiving a payout equal to what the SEC generates per school, but again, none would appear likely to increase the payout to existing SEC schools.

The B1G is even more constrained at 18 schools. I can't see them looking at more than 2 more. The one they would take in a heartbeat would be Notre Dame and Stanford. UNC and UVA would be another strong add, but again the need to expand footprint for the BTN is unlikely to be a key driver. They would also benefit from some presence in Florida, which would make the pair of FSU and the U a potentially viable combination, but would add even more travel issues than the conference already has.

Thus, I think there is a real possibility that the B1G and SEC do nothing at the termination of the ACC GOR. However, leading members of the ACC and B12 will be interested in increasing their payouts to a level closer to those of the P2. To accomplish this, the best strategy may be for the top schools in each league to withdraw and to form a new league. Key factors will be historic success, market size, and brand value. Here's my first shot at what such a conference might look like:

Definite invitation:

- FSU - Brand, historic success, has a statewide following in 3rd largest state with great recruiting area
- The U - Same as FSU, but more market area is limited to populous Miami/Ft. Lauderdale/West Palm area, which is also one of the best recruiting markets in the country
- Clemson - Brand, historic success, statewide following in a mid sized state
- UNC - Leading brand in basketball, flagship of 2nd largest state without a P2 member school
- UVA - Flagship of 3rd largest state without a P2 member school
- TCU - Historic success, located in the second largest state, the number 5 TV market, and one of the best recruiting markets in the country
- Baylor - Historic success, located in the second largest state

Next group:
- GT - Statewide following in a large state, located in the number 6 TV market, and one of the best recruiting areas in the country
- Arizona - Flagship of the 4th largest state without a P2 member, historically strong in hoops
- Colorado - Flagship of the 6th largest state without a P2 member
- VT - Historic success, great fan base, statewide following in 3rd largest state without a P2 member
- Syracuse - Located in largest state without a P2 school, strong following in Upstate NY, which is as large as a mid sized state itself, historically strong in hoops
- Kansas - Leading brand in basketball
- Duke - Leading brand in basketball, located in 2nd largest state without a P2 member

Third group
- TTU - Located in the second largest state
- ASU - Statewide following in the 4th largest state without a P2 member, located in the 11th largest TV market
- Ok. State - historic success

Running out of steam, but you get the point. As I write this, though, the other possibility would be for the ACC to raid the B12, grabbing TCU and Baylor, as they should have tried to do after Texas and OU left the B12.

I appreciate the time this list took to make, but I don't find it very realistic. Everything here is based on an article of faith that the P2 leagues are done expanding. We have no reason to believe that they are.

Put at least 7 ACC schools on the P2 call-up list. The B12 has no realistic shot at these.

Clemson
Florida State
2 North Carolina schools
2 Virginia schools
Miami
[ Stanford ]
[ UC Berkeley ]

Right now we can put 4 more ACC schools on the P2 'maybe' list. Here we can start talking about 'top brands' that a B12 merger might luck into if these schools somehow had a really bad day at the P2 expansion office.

Louisville
Duke
Georgia Tech
Pittsburgh
Syracuse

Personally, I find it more likely that any remaining schools in this category would, with Wake Forest and Boston College, build a next-generation ACC around their conference network. They could add USF and maybe UCF and build out with the usual suspects like Connecticut, Tulane, Temple, and Rice. If ND is still around the schools will actually prefer this.

Now let's look at the B12. They don't have a corresponding category of obvious P2 call-up candidates, but on the 'maybe' list we can put:

Kansas
[ Colorado ]
[ Utah ]
[ Arizona State ]

That's pretty much it, I think.

Any realistic merger proposal comes down to how excited viewers can get over Georgia Tech and Syracuse playing TCU and Baylor. Whatever a proposal like this has to recommend it, it's not really a solution for schools 'interested in increasing their payouts to a level closer to those of the P2.' It's a proposal for how best to arrange the M league borders.

Never going to happen

For sure out: Boston College, Louisville, Syracuse, Wake Forest, Duke, Georgia Tech, Iowa State, BYU, West Virginia, Houston, Temple, Baylor, Rice.
Probably out: Miami, Oklahoma State, Kansas, Kansas State, Texas Tech, Arizona, California, Stanford.
Probably In. NC State, Virginia Tech, UCF, USF, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, TCU, Tulane, Arizona State, Utah, Colorado.
For sure in: Clemson, Florida St, North Carolina, Virginia.
For sure in if they want to be: Notre Dame.

Wild Cards getting in: Fresno State, San Diego State, Air Force, Colorado State, Boise State, New Mexico, UTSA, SMU, Memphis, ODU, UAB, Georgia State, Buffalo, Ohio U., Delaware.

(08-24-2023 04:40 AM)schmolik Wrote:  

(08-23-2023 07:42 PM)Big Frog II Wrote:  

(08-23-2023 06:07 PM)schmolik Wrote:  

(08-23-2023 02:24 PM)orangefan Wrote:  Definite invitation:

- FSU - Brand, historic success, has a statewide following in 3rd largest state with great recruiting area
- The U - Same as FSU, but more market area is limited to populous Miami/Ft. Lauderdale/West Palm area, which is also one of the best recruiting markets in the country
- Clemson - Brand, historic success, statewide following in a mid sized state
- UNC - Leading brand in basketball, flagship of 2nd largest state without a P2 member school
- UVA - Flagship of 3rd largest state without a P2 member school
- TCU - Historic success, located in the second largest state, the number 5 TV market, and one of the best recruiting markets in the country
- Baylor - Historic success, located in the second largest state

TCU and Baylor "historic success"???? 2021 and this past January's win over Michigan are considered historic success now? Have I fallen asleep and it's 2070 now? What success did TCU or Baylor have before 2021 in football or men's basketball?

Baylor won the MBB championship in 2021. TCU has won the Peach, the Rose, and the Fiesta Bowls in the past 12 years and is in the DFW area.

Even the last 12 years would not by most standards be considered historic.

Recent may be more accurate than historic. However, my point is that a conference looking to reach P3 status needs a presence in Texas, which is both the 2nd largest state and a football hotbed for recruiting an fan support. Baylor and TCU are the two best schools other than Texas and A&M given recent success. In addition, they have wealthy supporters and modern facilities.

(08-23-2023 06:07 PM)schmolik Wrote:  

(08-23-2023 02:24 PM)orangefan Wrote:  Definite invitation:

- FSU - Brand, historic success, has a statewide following in 3rd largest state with great recruiting area
- The U - Same as FSU, but more market area is limited to populous Miami/Ft. Lauderdale/West Palm area, which is also one of the best recruiting markets in the country
- Clemson - Brand, historic success, statewide following in a mid sized state
- UNC - Leading brand in basketball, flagship of 2nd largest state without a P2 member school
- UVA - Flagship of 3rd largest state without a P2 member school
- TCU - Historic success, located in the second largest state, the number 5 TV market, and one of the best recruiting markets in the country
- Baylor - Historic success, located in the second largest state

TCU and Baylor "historic success"???? 2021 and this past January's win over Michigan are considered historic success now? Have I fallen asleep and it's 2070 now? What success did TCU or Baylor have before 2021 in football or men's basketball?

We do have both remote success (AP national championship, Heisman winner (whom the national award for top QB is named after), 9 appearances in major bowls- Orange, Cotton, Sugar over the 30s and 50s) and recent success- 11 top 25, 7 top 10 and two top 2 finishes in last 20 years; https://collegepollarchive.com/football/...03&to=2022

The 7 top 10 finishes is 7th most, only behind Ohio State (17!!), Alabama (16!), Oklahoma (13), Georgia (12), USC and LSU (8), and tied with Penn St, Clemson and Oregon.

No comment on Men's basketball, lol

(08-24-2023 04:40 AM)schmolik Wrote:  

(08-23-2023 07:42 PM)Big Frog II Wrote:  Baylor won the MBB championship in 2021. TCU has won the Peach, the Rose, and the Fiesta Bowls in the past 12 years and is in the DFW area.

Even the last 12 years would not by most standards be considered historic.

It might be when you consider where TCU came from. The Frogs had two winning seasons from 1966 to 1990 and once had a SWC run of 8-67-1 over 10 seasons.

Yeah, I'm gonna go ahead and disagree.

Top tier & almost certainly getting a P2 invite:
FSU
UNC

Definite Invitation:
Clemson
UVA
VT
NC State
Kansas
Oklahoma State
TCU
Arizona
Arizona State

Maybe:
Duke
Cincinnati
Georgia Tech
BYU
Utah

Outside Chance, depends on success between now & then:
Colorado
Louisville
West Virginia
Syracuse
Pitt
Iowa State
Houston

No Prayer:
Kansas State
Boston College
Wake Forest
Baylor - the least historical success of any P5 program, tiny alumni base, far away from any major metro area
Miami - it's not 2005 anymore; to anyone under 40 they're similar to Wake Forest
UCF - blackballed by FSU (move them up to "maybe" list if FSU is in the SEC)