(08-19-2023 09:14 PM)Bronco14 Wrote:  

(08-19-2023 07:14 AM)Chris02m1 Wrote:  ND is also contractually obligated to join acc through 2036 if they forego football independence

I'm sure there's an exit clause. I'm sure they can afford it.

nope

Short answer: lolno
Long answer: Can I buy pot from you? (The writer of the piece, not you, ColKurtz.)

(08-20-2023 05:11 AM)schmolik Wrote:  

(08-19-2023 08:17 PM)domer1978 Wrote:  

(08-19-2023 08:13 PM)TerryD Wrote:  

(08-19-2023 06:13 PM)schmolik Wrote:  

(08-19-2023 05:43 PM)GoldenWarrior11 Wrote:  PSA: Notre Dame will always be an Independent because the networks (that now run college football) want it.

Oh really? How come I haven't heard about Notre Dame's NBC extension beyond 2025 yet?

There are three more seasons to go under the current deal.

No rush.

Plus, it takes time to work out that scheduling agreement.

I assume we will see more big ten teams, which is fine

Notre Dame's previous contract ended in 2015 and they extended it until 2025. They extended it according to Notre Dame's website on April 18, 2013.

https://news.nd.edu/news/notre-dame-and-...t-to-2025/

So we are already four months past the date they extended in 2013.

Also, the Big Ten is worth way more than they were back in 2013 (as are the SEC). The Big Ten is on NBC, the same network Notre Dame is trying to negotiate with. When Notre Dame extended the contract they were coming off an undefeated regular season and a BCS championship game appearance vs. Alabama. They were 9-4 last year. Notre Dame really should have renewed coming off the CFP appearance in 2020 although that was still during the pandemic and negotiations with networks were obviously difficult.

So now we are going to value Notre Dame's program based solely on the previous season? A lot of variables can affect a single season. In Notre Dame's case, they were dealing with a coaching change last season. I would submit that a cumulative 5-season record is more reflective of where a program currently stands.

ND's record last 5 seasons (2018-22): 56-11
ND's record previous 5 seasons before it last renewed with NBC (2008-12): 41-23 (largely on the strength of the 2012 season, ND was a combined 29-22 from 2008-11.)

Quote:The issue might not be getting a contract with NBC but for how much. NBC would be idiotic to give Notre Dame Big Ten or SEC money. For a single school, somewhere between Big Ten/SEC and ACC/Big 12 seems reasonable to me.

As I understand it, ND is not asking for Big Ten/SEC money. One issue which clearly works to ND's disadvantage as an independent is inventory. As an independent, ND can only offer its home games. For a conference member, however, all games are available except road OOC games. So 6-7 games/year as opposed to 10-11 games/year. By any reasonable measure, the former will be worth less than the latter, especially where the latter necessarily includes all of the former. As I understand it, ND is looking for $50-65 million/year from NBC, whereas the Big Ten and SEC deals pay somewhere in the neighborhood of $60-80 million/year per member. To flip your argument around, that means that ND actually will receive less money than the likes of Rutgers, Vanderbilt, Mississippi State, Arkansas, Maryland, Minnesota, Indiana, etc. But ND always has been willing to leave some money on the table in order to remain independent.

(08-19-2023 08:47 PM)JRsec Wrote:  Let's take a mental competency text:

Form a sentence using 3 words: Christmas, Goose, & Crap.

“Last Christmas I gave you a goose,
but the very next year, you gave me some crap”

When the Big Ten and SEC contracts are negotiated, it's well understood that the networks are paying for the Ohio State's, Michigan's, Alabama's, etc. and that the lesser teams you mentioned tf8693 are along for the ride. Rutgers and Vanderbilt are certainly worth less than $60-80M a year and Ohio State and Alabama way more if the $60-80M a year is the going price.

If we're talking about overall value, of course Notre Dame is top ten if not top five in the country. But they are an independent, only their home games are available, and the fact that they are independent limits the attractiveness of their home game slate. Now they do often make up with it because they draw fairly good non conference teams (guarantee USC every other year sure helps). But you'd be hard pressed to find a schedule without at least one G5 (likely a MAC) on their schedule. When you play in a conference, those games likely find their way to cable or streaming and another conference member's games can replace that. Now if Notre Dame signs with NBC they can agree that any G5 (or if somehow they play an FCS team) they have to go to Peacock but that lowers the viewership and therefore the value of their home game package.

Even if every FBS team was able to negotiate individual home game media rights while maintaining conference rights, the top conference teams in the Big Ten and SEC would be able to sell themselves and four or five Big Ten/SEC home games a year while Notre Dame would have to go by their six or seven and possibly get some good ones. That would place ND somewhere in the teens among FBS schools in terms value IMO.

I think the big thing that is different from the last time Notre Dame renegotiated is that NBC now has the Big Ten. They don't need Notre Dame for college football, if they sign with Notre Dame it's a bonus. Back in 2013, if they didn't sign with Notre Dame, they didn't have any FBS college football. Now Notre Dame can afford to play hardball. Once the season starts they have ratings to compare Notre Dame games with Big Ten games and they can see what Notre Dame is worth compared to the Big Ten. If that data is very against Notre Dame, that will really hurt Notre Dame's negotiations. It's one thing if Notre Dame's ratings are low vs. competitors. it's another when they're low vs. other games on the same network you're trying to negotiate with. If Michigan State-Ohio State draws more viewers than Ohio State-Notre Dame, what's Notre Dame going to say to NBC? I would say God help Notre Dame if any of their NBC games gets outdrawn by Charlotte-Maryland!

(08-20-2023 06:04 AM)Chris02m1 Wrote:  

(08-19-2023 09:14 PM)Bronco14 Wrote:  

(08-19-2023 07:14 AM)Chris02m1 Wrote:  ND is also contractually obligated to join acc through 2036 if they forego football independence

I'm sure there's an exit clause. I'm sure they can afford it.

nope

All contracts are made to be broken, it is then just a measure of breach of contract damages.

Specific performance is not favored. Money is the remedy if the contract is breached.

(08-20-2023 07:44 AM)schmolik Wrote:  When the Big Ten and SEC contracts are negotiated, it's well understood that the networks are paying for the Ohio State's, Michigan's, Alabama's, etc. and that the lesser teams you mentioned tf8693 are along for the ride. Rutgers and Vanderbilt are certainly worth less than $60-80M a year and Ohio State and Alabama way more if the $60-80M a year is the going price.

If we're talking about overall value, of course Notre Dame is top ten if not top five in the country. But they are an independent, only their home games are available, and the fact that they are independent limits the attractiveness of their home game slate. Now they do often make up with it because they draw fairly good non conference teams (guarantee USC every other year sure helps). But you'd be hard pressed to find a schedule without at least one G5 (likely a MAC) on their schedule. When you play in a conference, those games likely find their way to cable or streaming and another conference member's games can replace that. Now if Notre Dame signs with NBC they can agree that any G5 (or if somehow they play an FCS team) they have to go to Peacock but that lowers the viewership and therefore the value of their home game package.

Even if every FBS team was able to negotiate individual home game media rights while maintaining conference rights, the top conference teams in the Big Ten and SEC would be able to sell themselves and four or five Big Ten/SEC home games a year while Notre Dame would have to go by their six or seven and possibly get some good ones. That would place ND somewhere in the teens among FBS schools in terms value IMO.

I think the big thing that is different from the last time Notre Dame renegotiated is that NBC now has the Big Ten. They don't need Notre Dame for college football, if they sign with Notre Dame it's a bonus. Back in 2013, if they didn't sign with Notre Dame, they didn't have any FBS college football. Now Notre Dame can afford to play hardball. Once the season starts they have ratings to compare Notre Dame games with Big Ten games and they can see what Notre Dame is worth compared to the Big Ten. If that data is very against Notre Dame, that will really hurt Notre Dame's negotiations. It's one thing if Notre Dame's ratings are low vs. competitors. it's another when they're low vs. other games on the same network you're trying to negotiate with. If Michigan State-Ohio State draws more viewers than Ohio State-Notre Dame, what's Notre Dame going to say to NBC? I would say God help Notre Dame if any of their NBC games gets outdrawn by Charlotte-Maryland!

Even after I read this tome', I still believe that ND will get an NBC deal for at or more than $50 million a year.

(Plus the $17-20 million a year from ESPN/ACC/ACC Network going forward)

Time will tell. No sense going round and round on this.

(08-20-2023 05:11 AM)schmolik Wrote:  

(08-19-2023 08:17 PM)domer1978 Wrote:  

(08-19-2023 08:13 PM)TerryD Wrote:  

(08-19-2023 06:13 PM)schmolik Wrote:  

(08-19-2023 05:43 PM)GoldenWarrior11 Wrote:  PSA: Notre Dame will always be an Independent because the networks (that now run college football) want it.

Oh really? How come I haven't heard about Notre Dame's NBC extension beyond 2025 yet?

There are three more seasons to go under the current deal.

No rush.

Plus, it takes time to work out that scheduling agreement.

I assume we will see more big ten teams, which is fine

Notre Dame's previous contract ended in 2015 and they extended it until 2025. They extended it according to Notre Dame's website on April 18, 2013.

https://news.nd.edu/news/notre-dame-and-...t-to-2025/

So we are already four months past the date they extended in 2013.

Also, the Big Ten is worth way more than they were back in 2013 (as are the SEC). The Big Ten is on NBC, the same network Notre Dame is trying to negotiate with. When Notre Dame extended the contract they were coming off an undefeated regular season and a BCS championship game appearance vs. Alabama. They were 9-4 last year. Notre Dame really should have renewed coming off the CFP appearance in 2020 although that was still during the pandemic and negotiations with networks were obviously difficult.

The issue might not be getting a contract with NBC but for how much. NBC would be idiotic to give Notre Dame Big Ten or SEC money. For a single school, somewhere between Big Ten/SEC and ACC/Big 12 seems reasonable to me.

I'm sure ND and NBC would love an ACC-like scheduling deal with the Big Ten. I think there would be a backlash to that, so that would leave the SEC for a deal, or joining B1G.

(08-19-2023 06:02 PM)bill dazzle Wrote:  The number of folks (including many on this board) who want to see Notre Dame join a league for all sports ... baffling. College sports are interesting, in many respects, because they do not offer the same level of uniformity and sameness of pro sports. There is Notre Dame as a football independent, the military academies, the HBCUs, power all-sports leagues and non-power all-sports leagues, the Big East in men's hoops, the Ivy League, the chance for a Coastal Carolina to win a national title in baseball, etc. ... College sports are quirky and varied — and Notre Dame football as an indy is part of that interesting vibe.

I see this "ND football needs to be like everybody else" mindset often with anti-Vandy types who want Vanderbilt to demolish Memorial Gymnasium in favor of a new "modern" facility — one that would be like so many other college hoops arenas. Ridiculous idea.

Let's just make everything in college sports uniform and sterile (sarcasm intended). And I suppose while we're at it, we can raze Wrigley Field and Fenway Park (more sarcasm).

I don't really think it's all that baffling. This is a CFB realignment forum. Notre Dame is the biggest, most valuable remaining potential moveable piece. So speculating on possible movement of the most valuable remaining school seems exactly in the purview of this forum. It would be more baffling to me if we weren't seeing it.

As to Fenway: yes, it should have been razed yesterday. It's nothing but a smelly dump that some people seem to revere just because it's old. And the reality is that if it was in say Kansas City instead of Boston, it likely would have been razed years ago. And while I too enjoy uniqueness in sports, the Green Monster is basically the equivalent of the Patriots playing on a field that is 50 yards long but 200 yards wide.

Haha, dare to dream. ND will be allowed to continue to play by their own rules and be rewarded for it.

(08-20-2023 10:15 AM)Scoochpooch1 Wrote:  Haha, dare to dream. ND will be allowed to continue to play by their own rules and be rewarded for it.

Allowed, yes. Rewarded? Will they get P2 $$? Will they chase the $$ or are they comfortable with their ACC arrangement (being contractually bound and all)?

(08-20-2023 06:20 AM)tf8693 Wrote:  

(08-20-2023 05:11 AM)schmolik Wrote:  

(08-19-2023 08:17 PM)domer1978 Wrote:  

(08-19-2023 08:13 PM)TerryD Wrote:  

(08-19-2023 06:13 PM)schmolik Wrote:  Oh really? How come I haven't heard about Notre Dame's NBC extension beyond 2025 yet?

There are three more seasons to go under the current deal.

No rush.

Plus, it takes time to work out that scheduling agreement.

I assume we will see more big ten teams, which is fine

Notre Dame's previous contract ended in 2015 and they extended it until 2025. They extended it according to Notre Dame's website on April 18, 2013.

https://news.nd.edu/news/notre-dame-and-...t-to-2025/

So we are already four months past the date they extended in 2013.

Also, the Big Ten is worth way more than they were back in 2013 (as are the SEC). The Big Ten is on NBC, the same network Notre Dame is trying to negotiate with. When Notre Dame extended the contract they were coming off an undefeated regular season and a BCS championship game appearance vs. Alabama. They were 9-4 last year. Notre Dame really should have renewed coming off the CFP appearance in 2020 although that was still during the pandemic and negotiations with networks were obviously difficult.

So now we are going to value Notre Dame's program based solely on the previous season? A lot of variables can affect a single season. In Notre Dame's case, they were dealing with a coaching change last season. I would submit that a cumulative 5-season record is more reflective of where a program currently stands.

ND's record last 5 seasons (2018-22): 56-11
ND's record previous 5 seasons before it last renewed with NBC (2008-12): 41-23 (largely on the strength of the 2012 season, ND was a combined 29-22 from 2008-11.)

Quote:The issue might not be getting a contract with NBC but for how much. NBC would be idiotic to give Notre Dame Big Ten or SEC money. For a single school, somewhere between Big Ten/SEC and ACC/Big 12 seems reasonable to me.

As I understand it, ND is not asking for Big Ten/SEC money. One issue which clearly works to ND's disadvantage as an independent is inventory. As an independent, ND can only offer its home games. For a conference member, however, all games are available except road OOC games. So 6-7 games/year as opposed to 10-11 games/year. By any reasonable measure, the former will be worth less than the latter, especially where the latter necessarily includes all of the former. As I understand it, ND is looking for $50-65 million/year from NBC, whereas the Big Ten and SEC deals pay somewhere in the neighborhood of $60-80 million/year per member. To flip your argument around, that means that ND actually will receive less money than the likes of Rutgers, Vanderbilt, Mississippi State, Arkansas, Maryland, Minnesota, Indiana, etc. But ND always has been willing to leave some money on the table in order to remain independent.

Because everyone forgets Notre Dame gets a partial share of ACC money as well. Last year that was worth approximately $17.4 million. That's why they are only looking for $50-$70 mill a season from NBC, because when you add that up they will still be making SEC/Big 10 money while playing an easier schedule

(08-20-2023 12:27 PM)ColumbusCard Wrote:  

(08-20-2023 06:20 AM)tf8693 Wrote:  

(08-20-2023 05:11 AM)schmolik Wrote:  

(08-19-2023 08:17 PM)domer1978 Wrote:  

(08-19-2023 08:13 PM)TerryD Wrote:  There are three more seasons to go under the current deal.

No rush.

Plus, it takes time to work out that scheduling agreement.

I assume we will see more big ten teams, which is fine

Notre Dame's previous contract ended in 2015 and they extended it until 2025. They extended it according to Notre Dame's website on April 18, 2013.

https://news.nd.edu/news/notre-dame-and-...t-to-2025/

So we are already four months past the date they extended in 2013.

Also, the Big Ten is worth way more than they were back in 2013 (as are the SEC). The Big Ten is on NBC, the same network Notre Dame is trying to negotiate with. When Notre Dame extended the contract they were coming off an undefeated regular season and a BCS championship game appearance vs. Alabama. They were 9-4 last year. Notre Dame really should have renewed coming off the CFP appearance in 2020 although that was still during the pandemic and negotiations with networks were obviously difficult.

So now we are going to value Notre Dame's program based solely on the previous season? A lot of variables can affect a single season. In Notre Dame's case, they were dealing with a coaching change last season. I would submit that a cumulative 5-season record is more reflective of where a program currently stands.

ND's record last 5 seasons (2018-22): 56-11
ND's record previous 5 seasons before it last renewed with NBC (2008-12): 41-23 (largely on the strength of the 2012 season, ND was a combined 29-22 from 2008-11.)

Quote:The issue might not be getting a contract with NBC but for how much. NBC would be idiotic to give Notre Dame Big Ten or SEC money. For a single school, somewhere between Big Ten/SEC and ACC/Big 12 seems reasonable to me.

As I understand it, ND is not asking for Big Ten/SEC money. One issue which clearly works to ND's disadvantage as an independent is inventory. As an independent, ND can only offer its home games. For a conference member, however, all games are available except road OOC games. So 6-7 games/year as opposed to 10-11 games/year. By any reasonable measure, the former will be worth less than the latter, especially where the latter necessarily includes all of the former. As I understand it, ND is looking for $50-65 million/year from NBC, whereas the Big Ten and SEC deals pay somewhere in the neighborhood of $60-80 million/year per member. To flip your argument around, that means that ND actually will receive less money than the likes of Rutgers, Vanderbilt, Mississippi State, Arkansas, Maryland, Minnesota, Indiana, etc. But ND always has been willing to leave some money on the table in order to remain independent.

Because everyone forgets Notre Dame gets a partial share of ACC money as well. Last year that was worth approximately $17.4 million. That's why they are only looking for $50-$70 mill a season from NBC, because when you add that up they will still be making SEC/Big 10 money while playing an easier schedule

its also the fact that paying that much for 1 school is not even possible. I bet ND wont get more than 30-40 mil per year on there next contract with NBC

The current frenzy of realignment began in 1989.

This isn't a everything works out in whirlwind week or month or year.

The whole thing started before ESPN was even a major player in TV rights and the market is still evolving with streaming still a toddler or at least early elementary school in development.

I tend to think Notre Dame eventually lands in a conference but I think that day is probably a decade or two away.

The people selling conference content are going to pressure leagues to play more conference games and add teams that bring them value. What constituted value in 1989 (ratings of people watching on free over the air tv) isn't what consisted value a decade plus later (will the viewer change TV providers if this school's games aren't on TV at the carriage fee price I ask) to (how many people can we charge an enhanced carriage fee to because people in that state will want the conference network) and now it seems we are rolling back to how many people will watch over the air and adding how many people will pay a fee to see this content streaming?

Notre Dame joining a conference won't be driven by their value but whether it serves Notre Dame. If access to the playoff seems impaired by independence and scheduling seems impaired because of schools having fewer non-conference dates then Notre Dame will join.

Greg Sankey saying we need to revisit team selection in wake of the Pac-Spolision is a gift to Notre Dame. If at-large increases to 7 slots rather than 6 that's a win for Notre Dame. If Pac-Post-Apocalypse is one of 9 leagues competing for 6 slots or one of 10 competing for six slots there's a good chance that Notre Dame could be the 7th best at-large candidate and watching two conference champs rated behind them in the playoff. If you are Notre Dame, you want those six auto bids going to highly ranked teams eating up slots that would have been at-large.

(08-20-2023 09:07 AM)TerryD Wrote:  

(08-20-2023 06:04 AM)Chris02m1 Wrote:  

(08-19-2023 09:14 PM)Bronco14 Wrote:  

(08-19-2023 07:14 AM)Chris02m1 Wrote:  ND is also contractually obligated to join acc through 2036 if they forego football independence

I'm sure there's an exit clause. I'm sure they can afford it.

nope

All contracts are made to be broken, it is then just a measure of breach of contract damages.

Specific performance is not favored. Money is the remedy if the contract is breached.

im sure its very punitive as we don't want you slipping out super easy

(08-19-2023 05:43 PM)GoldenWarrior11 Wrote:  PSA: Notre Dame will always be an Independent because the networks (that now run college football) want it.

Not true. Notre Dame is independent and intends to remain so because Notre Dame wants to be independent. And so far, they have found at least one network that is willing to work with them within that parameter. But to say that all networks want ND to be independent is patently false.

Rick Neuheisel has been beating the drums for awhile about how ND has to join the ACC. And he's not going rogue here, either. Rather, this is a simple "follow the money" exercise:

1. What network employs Neuheisel?
2. What network controls broadcast rights to the ACC?

The answer to those questions (hint: it's the same) speaks volumes about who wants ND in a conference.

(08-19-2023 06:02 PM)bill dazzle Wrote:  The number of folks (including many on this board) who want to see Notre Dame join a league for all sports ... baffling.
....

If after years of obsessing over it fans got word that Notre Dame football had joined a conference, they'd forget about it a week later.

(08-20-2023 02:30 PM)Gitanole Wrote:  

(08-19-2023 06:02 PM)bill dazzle Wrote:  The number of folks (including many on this board) who want to see Notre Dame join a league for all sports ... baffling.
....

If after years of obsessing over it fans got word that Notre Dame football had joined a conference, they'd forget about it a week later.

Therein lies the reason they won’t join a football conference: they’d be forgotten

(08-20-2023 02:30 PM)Gitanole Wrote:  

(08-19-2023 06:02 PM)bill dazzle Wrote:  The number of folks (including many on this board) who want to see Notre Dame join a league for all sports ... baffling.
....

If after years of obsessing over it fans got word that Notre Dame football had joined a conference, they'd forget about it a week later.

.

I don’t know how long the fretting will last, Gitanole, but I agree, the fan base will accept it by a month or so at the latest. The ND administration tried before, with faculty support for joining the BIG10, and the alumni/boosters made a big fuss and the effort was halted. This time, circumstances are considerably different. There are two elite mega conferences and growing. TV broadcasting contracts have evolved and changed, the PAC has become depleted, ND’s host conference for most other sports plus 5 games average per season, the ACC, will change one way or another. Playoff criteria may not be permanent yet. NIL exists and will grow. Being now AAU status, association with the BIG would be a selling point, along with pointing to new members in the BIG, such as Sou. Cal., a longtime, regular football rival.

All that said, I don’t believe ND will go full-time football until they get closer to a forced situation; meaning financial and scheduling factors. Such could happen fast, but when, if it is to happen, is still a guess. Personally, I don’t believe ND with remain football independent beyond a decade.

(08-20-2023 02:56 PM)esayem Wrote:  

(08-20-2023 02:30 PM)Gitanole Wrote:  

(08-19-2023 06:02 PM)bill dazzle Wrote:  The number of folks (including many on this board) who want to see Notre Dame join a league for all sports ... baffling.
....

If after years of obsessing over it fans got word that Notre Dame football had joined a conference, they'd forget about it a week later.

Therein lies the reason they won’t join a football conference: they’d be forgotten

As an independent people notice Notre Dame when they win, whether that's a national title or not isn't relevant. They don't notice them at all when they are losing. But in a conference people do notice when they don't win a championship and they notice them a lot more because of conference standings.
As an independent people remember the big games. They'd notice all of the conference games. So, an above average season looks better than it is as an independent and exactly like what it is in a conference where those playing an equivalent schedule who are ranked above them may be 5 or 6 schools. Finishing with a winning record against a non-descript field people search out Notre Dame's standing. In a conference they see it listed weekly. Being an independent allows their past history and name recognition to work for them. In a conference that history is confronted with every passing year of finishing middle of the pack.

This is why Miami and Nebraska are punished more for slipping in a conference and Notre Dame gets a pass.