Which quartet’s situation was the most dire?

I go with the PAC-4 because they are absorbing a huge financial hit.

The left out SWC schools had to relocate to MWC and CUSA but at a time when there wasn't so much money in the sport.

(08-15-2023 03:38 PM)Garden_KC Wrote:  I go with the PAC-4 because they are absorbing a huge financial hit.

The left out SWC schools had to relocate to MWC and CUSA but at a time when there wasn't so much money in the sport.

Right. The money gap of P5 vs. the rest is huge.

PAC-4. There is a good chance 2 (and maybe all 4) will be "relegated" to non-power status. I would bet that California and Stanford find their way into a power conference or, at worst, BYU-esque quasi-power independence. Oregon St and Washington St have one hail mary play: build up the PAC with whoever the Bay Area schools want and pray that they can retain power status.

The Big East schools were in the best position of these options. The XII lost 4 schools and were going to add. The ACC was also in a position of growth. And Rutgers found a golden ticket by tripping, slipping, and falling.

Second would be the SWC schools. While there was no "power status" at the time, those schools were directly associated with Texas, Texas A&M, and Arkansas for a long time. There was even the time when the entire SWC (minus the Razorbacks) was 1 vote away from merging with the entire Big 8. Metro Southwest (DFW/Houston) took a major blow. Since then, 2 have recovered quite well, 1 is in limbo, and 1 may pull a Rutgers.

If you look at the end results, the end of FBS WAC football was pretty dire. Depending on when you look on the timeline it was 7, 5, or 2 getting left behind. But it actually resulted in one school dropping a level and another spending 10ish years struggling without a conference at all.

The CUSA five were in a pretty scary situation when it looked like it might become the CUSA three, but (compared to the WAC) managed to at least continue to exist.

Having been a part of both of these groups, my sympathy level for the schools listed here is roughly at a zero.

(08-15-2023 04:25 PM)BePcr07 Wrote:  PAC-4. There is a good chance 2 (and maybe all 4) will be "relegated" to non-power status. I would bet that California and Stanford find their way into a power conference or, at worst, BYU-esque quasi-power independence. Oregon St and Washington St have one hail mary play: build up the PAC with whoever the Bay Area schools want and pray that they can retain power status.

The Big East schools were in the best position of these options. The XII lost 4 schools and were going to add. The ACC was also in a position of growth. And Rutgers found a golden ticket by tripping, slipping, and falling.

Second would be the SWC schools. While there was no "power status" at the time, those schools were directly associated with Texas, Texas A&M, and Arkansas for a long time. There was even the time when the entire SWC (minus the Razorbacks) was 1 vote away from merging with the entire Big 8. Metro Southwest (DFW/Houston) took a major blow. Since then, 2 have recovered quite well, 1 is in limbo, and 1 may pull a Rutgers.

Before then, MVC and SoCon took a hit. MVC took a hit when some of their founding members split and formed the Big 6 then 7 then 8 then 12.

SoCon took a hit twice when a split happened to them first when the ACC schools left to form the ACC and then the SEC schools left to formed the SEC.

Idaho and New Mexico State got hit hard a few times. Once when the Big West disbanded football. Second when WAC could not get enough members for an FBS conference. Third, when the SBC booted them out of the conference.

1978 to 1982, some conferences like the MVC, Southland and SoCon got split when the 1A and 1AA came about. Half the conferences were playing independents in both. Then the schools that were FBS at the time got the boot from the 1A which they got the worst end of the stick. Only a handful have came back that were 1A at the time. Appalachian State who was a 1A independent back then was the last school that move back up.
West Texas State at the time and UTA were stuck in purgatory as 1A independent along with Wichita State either dropped football or dropped down to D2. The WAC at the time could have taken in West Texas A&M. They are not far from New Mexico, Air Force and Colorado State at the time. They won football conference championships in the Border and in MVC.

(08-15-2023 03:28 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  Which quartet’s situation was the most dire?

My answer is TWO of the sad PAC4: WSU and OSU. Stan and Cal will be okay one way or another.

The Pac 4. The money is so much bigger now.

Stanford will be ok. They don't need the money. They're a top 5 university with or without big-time athletics. Cal needs to pay off their rebuilt stadium. They need to find a way to the B1G, and they might be willing to settle for the B12.

Oregon State and Washington State are in a world of hurt. They have mostly always played at the highest level available. Both have recently built and rebuilt facilities (WSU is in a mountain of debt over it). As land-grant schools, they look and feel like B12 schools (though Pullman is more remote than Stillwater or Manhattan), only their fan bases are slightly smaller. But location is a killer. They're in the Pacific time zone, and can't generate the needed value in a media deal. The Big 12 doesn't need any more members, and if they look for more, OrSU and WSU are down the list. They're more unlucky than undeserving.

As I saw one columnist mention: what if Phil Knight had attended Oregon State instead of Oregon?

The Pac4 have a worse situation. At least the SWC 4 had more that 2 full years notice.

(08-15-2023 05:57 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  The Pac4 have a worse situation. At least the SWC 4 had more that 2 full years notice.

No doubt.

The PAC 4. It's happening to them much later in the realignment game giving them less time to adapt.

We were able to cobble together a pretty good BE 2.0. The PAC-4 have no chance to do that.

The OP is someone who claims Cincinnati as a team to root for. Yet, not included in the worst predicament? Shame on you.

2013
Cincinnati
Connecticut
South Florida

I went with Houston, SMU, TCU and Rice. They had no prayer of resurrecting the SWC with the other 4 gone. The Pac 4 has lost 2/3 of their schools and all the top football brands, yet somehow these 4 leftovers still have a realistic shot of holding things together. Like Stanford and Cal to the ACC, the 4 lost SWC schools were 1 vote away from joining the Big 12. In the early days of the planning for the Big 12, 15 of the 16 Presidents wanted a full SWC/Big 8 merger, but that one vote against was enough to relegate TCU to 13 years of limbo, Houston to 25 years of it, and SMU/Rice to an unknown, perhaps permanent relegation. If we fast forward 25 years and the Pac 4 have suffered a similar fate, then I'd say that their situation was similarly bad.

The Big East schools? Every one of them that you listed made it out ok, and Cincy just made it into the Big 12. I think that UConn is the only one still in the wilderness, and their football has been TERRIBLE up until last year.

(08-15-2023 06:43 PM)UCGrad1992 Wrote:  The OP is someone who claims Cincinnati as a team to root for. Yet, not included in the worst predicament? Shame on you.

2013
Cincinnati
Connecticut
South Florida

Not really IMHO. All three did not take that much of a media hit because the Big East didn't have much of a deal to begin with. Sure, they were demoted to non power status, but all 3 had options to work on thyself and get out of the situation. Cincy was up to the task. UConn threw in the towel and took an escape hatch to what mattered more to them. USF did nothing to improve their situation and they are where they are. I think the PAC4 are in the worse shoes because of the huge financial hot they are gonna take, things that are going to bust their budget.....liabilities that are already had. Even with that, the door seems to be closed because they don't have much to offer, even if they improve the on field product.....moreso looking at Oregon State and Washington State.

(08-15-2023 06:43 PM)UCGrad1992 Wrote:  The OP is someone who claims Cincinnati as a team to root for. Yet, not included in the worst predicament? Shame on you.

2013
Cincinnati
Connecticut
South Florida

It was a bad predicament but the Big East had enough sense to invite new schools as they were losing members. They also weren't stupid enough to make completely unreasonable demands to ESPN regarding their TV negotiations. Further all of Cincy, USF and UConn had actually experienced life as a G5 / FCS program.



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Other than to be nice, is there any reason for the MWC to take in WSU/OSU if the Bay Area Boys land elsewhere?

(08-15-2023 05:29 PM)GarnetAndBlue Wrote:  

(08-15-2023 03:28 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  Which quartet’s situation was the most dire?

My answer is TWO of the sad PAC4: WSU and OSU. Stan and Cal will be okay one way or another.

Agree. The Pacific Northwest pair are in a uniquely sad quandary.

(08-16-2023 05:11 AM)AssKickingChicken Wrote:  Other than to be nice, is there any reason for the MWC to take in WSU/OSU if the Bay Area Boys land elsewhere?

There are two. Oregon State and Washington State.

I kinda think the answer is West Virginia, Cal, and Stanford. Those 3 only ever were, and expected to be, in top conferences. The others I think (just my opinion!) were far better built to fall back, or stay back, into a successful G5 status, and then maybe work their way back. But WVU, Cal and Stanford were/are nearly apoplectic at the idea. Sure Washington/Oregon State are sad at it happening. It's just that it's easy, probably even for a fan of those schools, to see how this was very possibly coming at some point, maybe not quite this dramatically, but coming.