(08-15-2023 09:35 AM)ren.hoek Wrote: (08-15-2023 09:30 AM)tj_2009 Wrote: I doubt FSU will announce leaving the ACC today because the Grant of Rights will be something that will be difficult to overcome. It seems like there have been a lot of people examining the Grant of Rights agreement so if there was a flaw in the agreement, we likely would have heard something by now.
Bingo. It was laughable to hear FSU claim that the GOR would not be the document that keeps them from taking action. If they try to escape the GOR next year without ESPN's help (i.e. brokered solution), then it would be a kamikaze strategy.
Without ESPN's help. Those are the words that describe where realignment of all kinds must happen. ESPN's needs must be met.
What are those needs/wants? First, I believe they want to keep the Big Ten out of the southeast. That is a red line, IMO. Second, they would like to keep the ACCN, of which they own 50%, a reliable cash cow producing somewhere in the neighborhood of $100M a year for them. There may be other wants, but these are the ones that will determine what the ACC can or cannot do in the near future.
One potential solution that would meet both those needs, and also stands a chance of getting ACC members to agree to is this. Let FSU leave, but only if they go to the SEC. They absolutely cannot go to the B1G. And FSU must be willing to pay a high price to go to the SEC. Of all possible additions to the SEC, only FSU stands to gain more than just the higher media revenue. They have a lot of empty seats that will get filled in the SEC, and that translates to millions of dollars in annual revenue that other schools wouldn't enjoy.
But if ESPN were to allow any other ACC teams leave they would severely damage that league. Instead, they could look elsewhere for an 18th SEC member and add Kansas. They would jump in a heartbeat and gladly pay whatever exit fees the Big 12 demands.
How do you then get the ACC to approve the departure of FSU? Cash, and lots of it. There are only 11 votes today to add Cal and Stanford. Without FSU, 11 would now be enough. Without FSU, the ACC now has only 13 football members. If they also add SMU to go to 16, they bring both California and Texas into the ACCN. If ESPN would agree to add all three schools pro rata, and those three would agree to join for less than a full revenue share (and I believe they are desperate enough to agree to that) the legacy ACC schools could see a revenue boost in the $6-8 million range. Add to that exit penalties from FSU of $20-25 million a year for the remainder of the ACC GoR and that might be enough to move the needle.
But ESPN is the lynchpin. Without their blessing, none of this is possible.