Football attendance is just one metric. But it may give you some hint.

First, the B12 5-year avg numbers without 4C

School Conference 5 Year Average
BYU Big 12 57,701
Iowa State Big 12 57,399
West Virginia Big 12 55,835
Texas Tech Big 12 55,034
Oklahoma State Big 12 54,395
Kansas State Big 12 49,629
Baylor Big 12 44,250
TCU Big 12 42,905
UCF Big 12 40,176
Cincinnati Big 12 33,172
Houston Big 12 30,393
Kansas Big 12 25,559
Big 12 Average 45,537

Next the B12 numbers with 4C

School Conference 5 Year Average
BYU Big 12 57,701
Iowa State Big 12 57,399
West Virginia Big 12 55,835
Texas Tech Big 12 55,034
Oklahoma State Big 12 54,395
Kansas State Big 12 49,629
Arizona State Big 12 48,809
Utah Big 12 47,406
Colorado Big 12 47,106
Baylor Big 12 44,250
TCU Big 12 42,905
Arizona Big 12 42,158
UCF Big 12 40,176
Cincinnati Big 12 33,172
Houston Big 12 30,393
Kansas Big 12 25,559
Big 12 Average 45,745

Now the ACC numbers

School Conference 5 Year Average
Clemson ACC 80,500
Florida State ACC 65,746
Virginia Tech ACC 60,571
NC State ACC 56,438
Miami (FL) ACC 55,050
Louisville ACC 48,871
North Carolina ACC 48,478
Georgia Tech ACC 43,961
Pittsburgh ACC 42,561
Virginia ACC 41,867
Syracuse ACC 35,680
Boston College ACC 34,934
Wake Forest ACC 27,491
Duke ACC 24,915
ACC Average 47,647

So the ACC has slightly better numbers than the B12.

BUT WHAT IF NO-VOTE 4 LEAVES???

ACC -4

School Conference 5 Year Average
Virginia Tech ACC 60,571
Miami (FL) ACC 55,050
Louisville ACC 48,871
Georgia Tech ACC 43,961
Pittsburgh ACC 42,561
Virginia ACC 41,867
Syracuse ACC 35,680
Boston College ACC 34,934
Wake Forest ACC 27,491
Duke ACC 24,915
ACC Average 41,590

What if the ACC adds SMU and USF to get back to 12?

ACC -4 + SMU/USF

School Conference 5 Year Average
Virginia Tech ACC 60,571
Miami (FL) ACC 55,050
Louisville ACC 48,871
Georgia Tech ACC 43,961
Pittsburgh ACC 42,561
Virginia ACC 41,867
Syracuse ACC 35,680
Boston College ACC 34,934
South Florida ACC 34,550
Wake Forest ACC 27,491
Duke ACC 24,915
SMU ACC 21,969
ACC Average 39,368

Not a good look in my opinion.

By the way, Calford is not savior but their numbers are slightly better.

ACC -4 + Cal/Stanford

School Conference 5 Year Average
Virginia Tech ACC 60,571
Miami (FL) ACC 55,050
Louisville ACC 48,871
Georgia Tech ACC 43,961
Pittsburgh ACC 42,561
Virginia ACC 41,867
California ACC 41,172
Stanford ACC 40,417
Syracuse ACC 35,680
Boston College ACC 34,934
Wake Forest ACC 27,491
Duke ACC 24,915
ACC Average 41,458

I would say an expansion is not as important as keeping the current schools. If the ACC loses FSU and Clemson only and keeps UNC and NC state, the number won't get that bad.

ACC - FSU/Clemson

School Conference 5 Year Average
Virginia Tech ACC 60,571
NC State ACC 56,438
Miami (FL) ACC 55,050
Louisville ACC 48,871
North Carolina ACC 48,478
Georgia Tech ACC 43,961
Pittsburgh ACC 42,561
Virginia ACC 41,867
Syracuse ACC 35,680
Boston College ACC 34,934
Wake Forest ACC 27,491
Duke ACC 24,915
ACC Average 43,401

It's worth noting how much the average is pulled DOWN by the bottom two.

ACC average without Wake and Duke: 51,221

ACC average without Clemson, FSU, Wake and Duke: 46,841

The middle of the ACC is better than the Big XII. The problem with the ACC has always been the bottom. No one seems to want to accept that fact. When I suggest non-football memberships, I get ridiculed. So the top teams will probably leave because the ACC is unwilling to address the real issue - too many football teams in North Carolina. There simply aren't enough fans in that one state to support 4 ACC teams.

(08-13-2023 09:14 AM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  It's worth noting how much the average is pulled DOWN by the bottom two.

ACC average without Wake and Duke: 51,221

ACC average without Clemson, FSU, Wake and Duke: 46,841

The middle of the ACC is better than the Big XII. The problem with the ACC has always been the bottom. No one seems to want to accept that fact. When I suggest non-football memberships, I get ridiculed. So the top teams will probably leave because the ACC is unwilling to address the real issue - too many football teams in North Carolina. There simply aren't enough fans in that one state to support 4 ACC teams.

Duke and Wake are hitting their stride in football and their performance outweighs their attendance. No longer are either “gimmes” and so long as they do well OOC they aren’t hurting the SOS.

Plus, the trade off with Duke is an elite basketball program and a large TV draw there.

(08-13-2023 09:31 AM)esayem Wrote:  

(08-13-2023 09:14 AM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  It's worth noting how much the average is pulled DOWN by the bottom two.

ACC average without Wake and Duke: 51,221

ACC average without Clemson, FSU, Wake and Duke: 46,841

The middle of the ACC is better than the Big XII. The problem with the ACC has always been the bottom. No one seems to want to accept that fact. When I suggest non-football memberships, I get ridiculed. So the top teams will probably leave because the ACC is unwilling to address the real issue - too many football teams in North Carolina. There simply aren't enough fans in that one state to support 4 ACC teams.

Duke and Wake are hitting their stride in football and their performance outweighs their attendance. No longer are either “gimmes” and so long as they do well OOC they aren’t hurting the SOS.

Plus, the trade off with Duke is an elite basketball program and a large TV draw there.

4 ACC?

You understate the problem.

Wake and Duke are the tip of the iceberg. Because of the State's geography, Western NC is supporting Tennessee, Clemson, and VT football with butts in seats, not to mention recruits. This is before ECU and App come into play.

Most people have no idea that once you cross west of line from Boone to Shelby you are in Tennessee and Clemson football territory.

These online fan maps are not precise enough to actually delineate this.

Using cow colleges as an example.

The Ag Extension arm of Land Grants serves the various States, but it's not uniform and it's somewhat like the National Weather Service Radar. Find the center spot and draw a line to the radar edge and make a circle.

This in part explains some of the base footprint of VT, NC State, Clemson, UGa, Auburn, and UF.

Plot it on a map yourself and play with it.

You would not think Tobacco, Peanuts, Soybeans, Cows, and Chickens would have such an impact.

For most of the 20th Century every newly minted UNC-Ch Pharmacist was issued a 3 foot by 5 foot framed photo of UNC's 1957 NCAA Title Basketball team to be placed on display at the apothecary's place of business.

As some one from just northwest of Charlotte, I would actually move SouthernConfBoy's demarcation line to Interstate 77. The intersection of I40 and I77 is practically the equidistant point to get to Columbia or Clemson, compared going to Duke, UNC, or State. My family even splits that way: 1 Clemson, 1 NC State.

But in context of this thread. WF's issue is not it's stadium attendance (80% capacity), or even that it located in NC, but it's overall small size and smaller active alumni base. They just have a smaller amount of dedicated eyeballs. And unlike the Catholics and Mormons, the Baptists do not cultivate the same level of fervor toward specific universities.

As pointed out the bigger issue is Duke, UNC, and State clustered in the research triangle. And for those who are curious, those schools manage to put more fans in the stands collectively, than similarly close proximity schools in the same conference, for a much smaller metro area. Though I do recognize that the other conference with schools in the same metro has imploded, and will need to be examined in a few years as their fan behavior in the new conferences settles.

UNC-Duke-State 130k for 2.2M RD metro
USC-UCLA 110k for 13M LA metro
Stan-Cal 78.5k for 7.6M SF metro

As far as the ACC is concerned, the only issue with the NC schools is the ACCN money split. It the NC schools issues to figure out how to recruit and compete. If you follow the following link to graphic showing number of fbs schools in each state per million residence you will see NC has similar conditions as other states that have won Natty's

https://footballscoop.com/.image/c_limit...onmap.webp

If only FSU leaves, USF would be an obvious backfill.

But if more than one school leave, would the ACC prefer Calford or Temple, UConn, Memphis, Navy, etc? I think the answer is obvious. [/u]

(08-13-2023 10:17 AM)SouthernConfBoy Wrote:  

(08-13-2023 09:31 AM)esayem Wrote:  

(08-13-2023 09:14 AM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  It's worth noting how much the average is pulled DOWN by the bottom two.

ACC average without Wake and Duke: 51,221

ACC average without Clemson, FSU, Wake and Duke: 46,841

The middle of the ACC is better than the Big XII. The problem with the ACC has always been the bottom. No one seems to want to accept that fact. When I suggest non-football memberships, I get ridiculed. So the top teams will probably leave because the ACC is unwilling to address the real issue - too many football teams in North Carolina. There simply aren't enough fans in that one state to support 4 ACC teams.

Duke and Wake are hitting their stride in football and their performance outweighs their attendance. No longer are either “gimmes” and so long as they do well OOC they aren’t hurting the SOS.

Plus, the trade off with Duke is an elite basketball program and a large TV draw there.

4 ACC?

You understate the problem.

Wake and Duke are the tip of the iceberg. Because of the State's geography, Western NC is supporting Tennessee, Clemson, and VT football with butts in seats, not to mention recruits. This is before ECU and App come into play.

Most people have no idea that once you cross west of line from Boone to Shelby you are in Tennessee and Clemson football territory.

These online fan maps are not precise enough to actually delineate this.

I am very aware The Great State of Franklin down into NC is a different animal, but Carolina definitely has a huge presence. It's still on the NC license plates after all. As far as P5 programs, Southeast TN/SW NC is very much a hodgepodge of UTK, UGa, Clemson, USC, and Carolina (the last three much less in TN) fans in my experience. Even Alabama rears its tusked head as you get to Chattanooga.

Hopefully our (UofLs) # increases drastically....i believe I've heard 12,500-15000 new season tix holders since Brohm was announced head coach. Hopefully we're sitting 3rd or 4th...worse case 5th, just for this upcoming season. Sustaining that will of course be do to winning and opponents that come in. If we lose 2-4 of the top programs thats gonna hurt all schools attendance...

(08-13-2023 02:08 PM)dgrace4cards Wrote:  Hopefully our (UofLs) # increases drastically....i believe I've heard 12,500-15000 new season tix holders since Brohm was announced head coach. Hopefully we're sitting 3rd or 4th...worse case 5th, just for this upcoming season. Sustaining that will of course be do to winning and opponents that come in. If we lose 2-4 of the top programs thats gonna hurt all schools attendance...

“ Louisville football season ticket sales are approaching 36,000, an increase of about 20% over last season. Within the administration, there is talk of bumping that number closer to 38,000 before the home opener while adding as many as 10,000 new season ticket holders.”

https://www.wdrb.com/sports/bozich-as-in...54bf7.html

(08-13-2023 02:08 PM)dgrace4cards Wrote:  Hopefully our (UofLs) # increases drastically....i believe I've heard 12,500-15000 new season tix holders since Brohm was announced head coach. Hopefully we're sitting 3rd or 4th...worse case 5th, just for this upcoming season. Sustaining that will of course be do to winning and opponents that come in. If we lose 2-4 of the top programs thats gonna hurt all schools attendance...

If Jeff has the success many of us expect, we could be looking at another stadium expansion before 2030. An expansion that needs to be done before The ACC GOR ends.

Tickets are going to be once again difficult to come by later this season.

I would like to see another upper deck added above the terrace on the south end of the stadium, connecting the Flight Deck to the Angel’s Envy Bourbon Club. Another 10,000 or so cheap seats to bring capacity to just over 75,000.

(08-13-2023 07:59 PM)CardinalJim Wrote:  

(08-13-2023 02:08 PM)dgrace4cards Wrote:  Hopefully our (UofLs) # increases drastically....i believe I've heard 12,500-15000 new season tix holders since Brohm was announced head coach. Hopefully we're sitting 3rd or 4th...worse case 5th, just for this upcoming season. Sustaining that will of course be do to winning and opponents that come in. If we lose 2-4 of the top programs thats gonna hurt all schools attendance...

“ Louisville football season ticket sales are approaching 36,000, an increase of about 20% over last season. Within the administration, there is talk of bumping that number closer to 38,000 before the home opener while adding as many as 10,000 new season ticket holders.”

https://www.wdrb.com/sports/bozich-as-in...54bf7.html

Yeah I accidentally overstated that number a few thousand.....they're hopefully looking to get 2000 more between now and Murray game...so maybe we landed at 12k new by then.

(08-13-2023 08:10 PM)CardinalJim Wrote:  

(08-13-2023 02:08 PM)dgrace4cards Wrote:  Hopefully our (UofLs) # increases drastically....i believe I've heard 12,500-15000 new season tix holders since Brohm was announced head coach. Hopefully we're sitting 3rd or 4th...worse case 5th, just for this upcoming season. Sustaining that will of course be do to winning and opponents that come in. If we lose 2-4 of the top programs thats gonna hurt all schools attendance...

If Jeff has the success many of us expect, we could be looking at another stadium expansion before 2030. An expansion that needs to be done before The ACC GOR ends.

Tickets are going to be once again difficult to come by later this season.

I would like to see another upper deck added above the terrace on the south end of the stadium, connecting the Flight Deck to the Angel’s Envy Bourbon Club. Another 10,000 or so cheap seats to bring capacity to just over 75,000.

I would slow our roll on stadium expansion...I'd go through a phase of some years where the atmosphere is full and hard to get tickets first...A full 60k is much better than waiting for 70k+ to grow into a full stadium....I just felt like we expanded to much too quick last 2 and it took alot away from the game atmosphere.

(08-14-2023 07:06 AM)dgrace4cards Wrote:  

(08-13-2023 08:10 PM)CardinalJim Wrote:  

(08-13-2023 02:08 PM)dgrace4cards Wrote:  Hopefully our (UofLs) # increases drastically....i believe I've heard 12,500-15000 new season tix holders since Brohm was announced head coach. Hopefully we're sitting 3rd or 4th...worse case 5th, just for this upcoming season. Sustaining that will of course be do to winning and opponents that come in. If we lose 2-4 of the top programs thats gonna hurt all schools attendance...

If Jeff has the success many of us expect, we could be looking at another stadium expansion before 2030. An expansion that needs to be done before The ACC GOR ends.

Tickets are going to be once again difficult to come by later this season.

I would like to see another upper deck added above the terrace on the south end of the stadium, connecting the Flight Deck to the Angel’s Envy Bourbon Club. Another 10,000 or so cheap seats to bring capacity to just over 75,000.

I would slow our roll on stadium expansion...I'd go through a phase of some years where the atmosphere is full and hard to get tickets first...A full 60k is much better than waiting for 70k+ to grow into a full stadium....I just felt like we expanded to much too quick last 2 and it took alot away from the game atmosphere.

Exactly. Across the country, college football's in-person attendance is contracting not expanding. Fans are seeking ammenities versus premium priced bench seating.

We are blessed with ammenities. But we have a fickle fan base. No need to grow the capacity at this time.

(08-14-2023 10:36 AM)Pervis_Griffith Wrote:  

(08-14-2023 07:06 AM)dgrace4cards Wrote:  

(08-13-2023 08:10 PM)CardinalJim Wrote:  If Jeff has the success many of us expect, we could be looking at another stadium expansion before 2030. An expansion that needs to be done before The ACC GOR ends.

Tickets are going to be once again difficult to come by later this season.

I would like to see another upper deck added above the terrace on the south end of the stadium, connecting the Flight Deck to the Angel’s Envy Bourbon Club. Another 10,000 or so cheap seats to bring capacity to just over 75,000.

I would slow our roll on stadium expansion...I'd go through a phase of some years where the atmosphere is full and hard to get tickets first...A full 60k is much better than waiting for 70k+ to grow into a full stadium....I just felt like we expanded to much too quick last 2 and it took alot away from the game atmosphere.

Exactly. Across the country, college football's in-person attendance is contracting not expanding. Fans are seeking ammenities versus premium priced bench seating.

We are blessed with ammenities. But we have a fickle fan base. No need to grow the capacity at this time.

Keep in mind we started expanding the stadium before we got an invite to The ACC. I see the same thing happening before the ACC GOR is over.

While fans may be seeking amenities, the university is looking to increase its revenue stream. That’s why they’re adding seats on the field in the Crunch Zone.

We often say UofL is Louisville’s pro team. If we believe that we need to have a stadium to reflect that.

I’m not saying this is something that needs to happen now but we should be planning for the end of the decade.

Tom’s vision for Louisville football was to always have more seats than needed. The idea was the extra seats could be sold at a price that recent graduates and young families could afford. Over time as the the graduates income increases and families become more comfortable, that they would move to more premium seats in the lower bowl.

A planned stadium expansion would also look good to The SEC if we are to ever be a candidate to join.

(08-14-2023 11:03 AM)CardinalJim Wrote:  

(08-14-2023 10:36 AM)Pervis_Griffith Wrote:  

(08-14-2023 07:06 AM)dgrace4cards Wrote:  

(08-13-2023 08:10 PM)CardinalJim Wrote:  If Jeff has the success many of us expect, we could be looking at another stadium expansion before 2030. An expansion that needs to be done before The ACC GOR ends.

Tickets are going to be once again difficult to come by later this season.

I would like to see another upper deck added above the terrace on the south end of the stadium, connecting the Flight Deck to the Angel’s Envy Bourbon Club. Another 10,000 or so cheap seats to bring capacity to just over 75,000.

I would slow our roll on stadium expansion...I'd go through a phase of some years where the atmosphere is full and hard to get tickets first...A full 60k is much better than waiting for 70k+ to grow into a full stadium....I just felt like we expanded to much too quick last 2 and it took alot away from the game atmosphere.

Exactly. Across the country, college football's in-person attendance is contracting not expanding. Fans are seeking ammenities versus premium priced bench seating.

We are blessed with ammenities. But we have a fickle fan base. No need to grow the capacity at this time.

Keep in mind we started expanding the stadium before we got an invite to The ACC. I see the same thing happening before the ACC GOR is over.

While fans may be seeking amenities, the university is looking to increase its revenue stream. That’s why they’re adding seats on the field in the Crunch Zone.

We often say UofL is Louisville’s pro team. If we believe that we need to have a stadium to reflect that.

I’m not saying this is something that needs to happen now but we should be planning for the end of the decade.

Tom’s vision for Louisville football was to always have more seats than needed. The idea was the extra seats could be sold at a price that recent graduates and young families could afford. Over time as the the graduates income increases and families become more comfortable, that they would move to more premium seats in the lower bowl.

A planned stadium expansion would also look good to The SEC if we are to ever be a candidate to join.

We can plan for it...but its very true the trends have changed since Toms time....And I've had season tix in there with less than capacity even in decent years...the atmosphere in there goes to poop...The atmosphere in there sold out is second to none...Jim we agree on alot of this conference mumbo jumbo, but we may see this stadium thing differently

(08-14-2023 11:09 AM)dgrace4cards Wrote:  

(08-14-2023 11:03 AM)CardinalJim Wrote:  

(08-14-2023 10:36 AM)Pervis_Griffith Wrote:  

(08-14-2023 07:06 AM)dgrace4cards Wrote:  

(08-13-2023 08:10 PM)CardinalJim Wrote:  If Jeff has the success many of us expect, we could be looking at another stadium expansion before 2030. An expansion that needs to be done before The ACC GOR ends.

Tickets are going to be once again difficult to come by later this season.

I would like to see another upper deck added above the terrace on the south end of the stadium, connecting the Flight Deck to the Angel’s Envy Bourbon Club. Another 10,000 or so cheap seats to bring capacity to just over 75,000.

I would slow our roll on stadium expansion...I'd go through a phase of some years where the atmosphere is full and hard to get tickets first...A full 60k is much better than waiting for 70k+ to grow into a full stadium....I just felt like we expanded to much too quick last 2 and it took alot away from the game atmosphere.

Exactly. Across the country, college football's in-person attendance is contracting not expanding. Fans are seeking ammenities versus premium priced bench seating.

We are blessed with ammenities. But we have a fickle fan base. No need to grow the capacity at this time.

Keep in mind we started expanding the stadium before we got an invite to The ACC. I see the same thing happening before the ACC GOR is over.

While fans may be seeking amenities, the university is looking to increase its revenue stream. That’s why they’re adding seats on the field in the Crunch Zone.

We often say UofL is Louisville’s pro team. If we believe that we need to have a stadium to reflect that.

I’m not saying this is something that needs to happen now but we should be planning for the end of the decade.

Tom’s vision for Louisville football was to always have more seats than needed. The idea was the extra seats could be sold at a price that recent graduates and young families could afford. Over time as the the graduates income increases and families become more comfortable, that they would move to more premium seats in the lower bowl.

A planned stadium expansion would also look good to The SEC if we are to ever be a candidate to join.

We can plan for it...but its very true the trends have changed since Toms time....And I've had season tix in there with less than capacity even in decent years...the atmosphere in there goes to poop...The atmosphere in there sold out is second to none...Jim we agree on alot of this conference mumbo jumbo, but we may see this stadium thing differently

No worries…

I agree we need a few seasons of consistent sellouts before we talk stadium expansion. The Satterfield years ranged from ho hum to just plain awful. The kind of football we’ve played the last few years wasn’t conducive to selling tickets.

Thank God and Greyhound he’s gone.

(08-13-2023 02:08 PM)dgrace4cards Wrote:  Hopefully our (UofLs) # increases drastically....i believe I've heard 12,500-15000 new season tix holders since Brohm was announced head coach. Hopefully we're sitting 3rd or 4th...worse case 5th, just for this upcoming season. Sustaining that will of course be do to winning and opponents that come in. If we lose 2-4 of the top programs thats gonna hurt all schools attendance...

I have no concerns about Cards. They will be alright.

(08-14-2023 07:06 AM)dgrace4cards Wrote:  

(08-13-2023 08:10 PM)CardinalJim Wrote:  

(08-13-2023 02:08 PM)dgrace4cards Wrote:  Hopefully our (UofLs) # increases drastically....i believe I've heard 12,500-15000 new season tix holders since Brohm was announced head coach. Hopefully we're sitting 3rd or 4th...worse case 5th, just for this upcoming season. Sustaining that will of course be do to winning and opponents that come in. If we lose 2-4 of the top programs thats gonna hurt all schools attendance...

If Jeff has the success many of us expect, we could be looking at another stadium expansion before 2030. An expansion that needs to be done before The ACC GOR ends.

Tickets are going to be once again difficult to come by later this season.

I would like to see another upper deck added above the terrace on the south end of the stadium, connecting the Flight Deck to the Angel’s Envy Bourbon Club. Another 10,000 or so cheap seats to bring capacity to just over 75,000.

I would slow our roll on stadium expansion...I'd go through a phase of some years where the atmosphere is full and hard to get tickets first...A full 60k is much better than waiting for 70k+ to grow into a full stadium....I just felt like we expanded to much too quick last 2 and it took alot away from the game atmosphere.

This. Create demand first and scarcity follows which creates fans who won't drop seasons after 5-7.

Syracuse Metro is forecast to grow 100K in the next 20 years. Doesn't sound like much but that is a 15% increase.

We are a typical NE pro fanbase...winning is most important. Until we win we'll be mediocre in football attendance. However, 44K will be our new max likely after new seating gets installed for 2024.