The whole "join at a reduced rate" thing is largely a red herring. While technically possible, I'm aware of not school that is permanently accepting reduced shares just to be in a conference. Most new schools don't join at a full rate and Oregon and Washington struck a deal that will take quite a while to get a full share. But they're all getting there eventually. Which ultimately means, unless you bring enough value, you're not getting added. Papering over the problem with partial shares for a few years won't fix the major issue, whether or not you add enough value.

(08-06-2023 11:40 AM)The Sicatoka Wrote:  1. Slim
2. None

... and I just saw Slim riding out of town on his horse.

Yeah. At this point independence is almost impossible. They won't be able to cobble together a schedule.

Big 10 has decided no.

They need to beg ESPN to let them join the ACC or Big 12 which probably won't work.

They can't get the MWC schools to pay $34 million.

I don't know that SMU, Rice, Memphis and Tulane would bite on an 8 Pac when you know Stanford and Cal bolt at the first chance and they don't have any TV deal.

Its probably a merger with the MWC as their only choice.

(08-06-2023 11:47 AM)UofMstateU Wrote:  Its simple, which is why they wont do it.

for 2024
Cal Stanford WSt Or St in one 4-team pod
SMU Tulane Memphis USF in another 4-team pod

For 2025
Expand by 4, keeping the geographies doable for 2 6 team pods.

Done

You might get $15million to $20million with mostly linear out of that, because ESPN would certainly be a player.

Ridiculous. ESPN didn’t want any part of the Pac 10 with Arizona, Oregon, and Washington, but they’re going to dole out 15-20M for Cal, Stanford, OSU, and WSU? Where do you guys come up with this stuff?

The Big 12 should focus on absorbing all it's new members at this point. Once the SEC and Big Ten grab some ACC schools down the road, the Big 12 might be able to poach a couple of ACC schools (like Louisville/Pitt).

(08-06-2023 12:21 PM)CoastalVANDAL Wrote:  The PAC 4 have no options left that they wouldn't normally say no .
So while applying to all P5 conferences figure out a plan to save the PAC.
The WAC survived one year as a 7 team FBS conference.
Invite Hawaii full member
Invite U Mass and U Conn football only
Use The two independents schedules to help build 12 game schedules for all 7.
This buys time to pick up 5 to 7 full members among the best AAC and MWC members.
Academics will play a bigger role than athletic success.
Rice, Tulane , CSU, USF, even a Nevada or New Mexico vs a Boise or Fresno St.
Gonzaga and St Mary's if their academics fit to fill out Olympic sports schedule.
Keep the name the credits the academic prestige for the most part.

Who is going to pay to buy out UConn and UMass's 2024 schedule? They are just out of time.

And the CFP money will be big. They don't want to give that up.

Stanford, post PAC, is not tied to Cal, IMHO. And has the advantage of being private, so not subject to all of CA's legislative meddling.

So, potentially the Big XII could pick them up. Would be for partial share = what media partners will provide. And likely we add UConn for the east as a reward to BY.

(08-06-2023 12:37 PM)UIWElite Wrote:  

(08-06-2023 11:47 AM)UofMstateU Wrote:  Its simple, which is why they wont do it.

for 2024
Cal Stanford WSt Or St in one 4-team pod
SMU Tulane Memphis USF in another 4-team pod

For 2025
Expand by 4, keeping the geographies doable for 2 6 team pods.

Done

You might get $15million to $20million with mostly linear out of that, because ESPN would certainly be a player.

Ridiculous. ESPN didn’t want any part of the Pac 10 with Arizona, Oregon, and Washington, but they’re going to dole out 15-20M for Cal, Stanford, OSU, and WSU? Where do you guys come up with this stuff?

Hopium fantasies know no bounds.

(08-06-2023 12:32 PM)Jericho Wrote:  The whole "join at a reduced rate" thing is largely a red herring. While technically possible, I'm aware of not school that is permanently accepting reduced shares just to be in a conference. Most new schools don't join at a full rate and Oregon and Washington struck a deal that will take quite a while to get a full share. But they're all getting there eventually. Which ultimately means, unless you bring enough value, you're not getting added. Papering over the problem with partial shares for a few years won't fix the major issue, whether or not you add enough value.

Correct. They are at a reduced rate for the remainder of this deal which ends in 2030 or '31. Then there will be a new negotiation in which they should be given full share. What that deal looks like is a mystery. It would be ironic if it ends up being with Apple or Amazon.

(08-06-2023 12:37 PM)UIWElite Wrote:  

(08-06-2023 11:47 AM)UofMstateU Wrote:  Its simple, which is why they wont do it.

for 2024
Cal Stanford WSt Or St in one 4-team pod
SMU Tulane Memphis USF in another 4-team pod

For 2025
Expand by 4, keeping the geographies doable for 2 6 team pods.

Done

You might get $15million to $20million with mostly linear out of that, because ESPN would certainly be a player.

Ridiculous. ESPN didn’t want any part of the Pac 10 with Arizona, Oregon, and Washington, but they’re going to dole out 15-20M for Cal, Stanford, OSU, and WSU? Where do you guys come up with this stuff?

It was reported ESPN/ACC were working out a deal when the Big Ten swooped in.

The safest option is to negotiate a merger but give Cal Stanford dramatically reduced exit fees to the Mountain Pacific Conference. Think it’s a fair trade off.

(08-06-2023 11:30 AM)shizzle787 Wrote:  To begin with, I believe that Cal and Stanford will stick together.

#1 Apply for membership in the Big 10 at a significantly reduced rate. We are likely talking less than 20 million per year. If that fails....

#2 Apply for membership in the SEC at a significantly reduced rate. Again, we are likely talking a significantly reduced share. If that fails....

#3 Apply for membership in the Big 12. If they cannot get a full share, settle for a reduced share. If that fails....

#4 Apply for membership in the ACC. If they cannot get a full share, settle for a reduced share. If that fails....

#5 Stay in the Pac-12 and hope to add six schools from the AAC and MW. Split the Comcast bill four ways with WSU and OSU to entice the six schools to jump. This league would be the clear #5 league which matters if the CFP goes to top 5 champions. If that fails....

#6 Invite all MW members + Gonzaga to the Pac-12. This is a weaker league than that resulting from scenario #5, but force the schools coming in to help with Comcast as part of the merger agreement. If all the schools split the cost, it would be about $4 million per school. If that fails....

#7 Go independent in football and join the Big East in basketball with Gonzaga. Attempt to get a football TV deal for late night from ESPN and/or FOX. If that fails....

#8 Go independent in football and join the WCC in basketball. Attempt to get a football TV deal for late night from ESPN and/or FOX.

Options 1-4 are likely not viable. Option 5 is their probably their best option. Try options 1-4, and assuming they don't work, quickly add 4 AAC schools now to stop the bleeding and then add 4 MWC schools for 2025.

(08-06-2023 12:37 PM)UIWElite Wrote:  

(08-06-2023 11:47 AM)UofMstateU Wrote:  Its simple, which is why they wont do it.

for 2024
Cal Stanford WSt Or St in one 4-team pod
SMU Tulane Memphis USF in another 4-team pod

For 2025
Expand by 4, keeping the geographies doable for 2 6 team pods.

Done

You might get $15million to $20million with mostly linear out of that, because ESPN would certainly be a player.

Ridiculous. ESPN didn’t want any part of the Pac 10 with Arizona, Oregon, and Washington, but they’re going to dole out 15-20M for Cal, Stanford, OSU, and WSU? Where do you guys come up with this stuff?

It was also ridiculous, right on this board, after texas and ou left when I said the B12 should expand with 4 AAC schools and they would get the high 20's for a media contract. Because you guys were saying it was going to be 12-18million tops.

You seem to think the west coast schools drive the tv market. They dont. You have to couple your conference with the south region where people actually watch college football. You will also get linear coverage that way, because there isnt a lot of linear demand for the late night slot in a region that doesnt watch college football, as we found out from the apple deal. OR and Washington were over 25% of the teams left in the pac, and they couldnt get a sniff of a decent media deal coupled and pigeon holed in the west.

(08-06-2023 11:30 AM)shizzle787 Wrote:  To begin with, I believe that Cal and Stanford will stick together.

#1 Apply for membership in the Big 10 at a significantly reduced rate. We are likely talking less than 20 million per year. If that fails....

#2 Apply for membership in the SEC at a significantly reduced rate. Again, we are likely talking a significantly reduced share. If that fails....

#3 Apply for membership in the Big 12. If they cannot get a full share, settle for a reduced share. If that fails....

#4 Apply for membership in the ACC. If they cannot get a full share, settle for a reduced share. If that fails....

#5 Stay in the Pac-12 and hope to add six schools from the AAC and MW. Split the Comcast bill four ways with WSU and OSU to entice the six schools to jump. This league would be the clear #5 league which matters if the CFP goes to top 5 champions. If that fails....

#6 Invite all MW members + Gonzaga to the Pac-12. This is a weaker league than that resulting from scenario #5, but force the schools coming in to help with Comcast as part of the merger agreement. If all the schools split the cost, it would be about $4 million per school. If that fails....

#7 Go independent in football and join the Big East in basketball with Gonzaga. Attempt to get a football TV deal for late night from ESPN and/or FOX. If that fails....

#8 Go independent in football and join the WCC in basketball. Attempt to get a football TV deal for late night from ESPN and/or FOX.

The other schools that left are not off the hook to pay back the money that they got from the over payment.

If they stick together and build up with the best schools from the MWC and AAC to keep the P5 spot? Stanford may have a chance on making the playoffs. Both them and Washington State have been pretty good at football at times.

(08-06-2023 11:44 AM)Stugray2 Wrote:  Stanford is looking at options #4 and #8. The ACC is preferred, but likely impractical.

Options #1, #2, #3 are closed. Option #5 is destined to fail due to exit fees (MWC, AAC) and risk of legal action, plus a lack of media deal). Option #6 makes no sense, since it keeps GK as commissioner, abandons MWC TV contract angering CBS and FOX; #6 is viable is all the Pac-12 scools join the MWC and negotiate a bump in media rights for the new schools (say $25M per year total). Option #7 is the same as #8, expect horrendous travel, and neither Cal nor Stanford have good enough basketball to make such a move desirable for the Big East and it's media providers.

Number 4, ACC won't take them. They are way too far away, and there is no help for a western branch unless you invite MWC schools as well.

Number 8, they will not get an auto bid into the playoffs. If they rebuild with the best of the rest with MWC and AAC schools, and help the MWC to get schools to come in for the next two years as a temp merger? It could work out that way.

(08-06-2023 01:21 PM)RUScarlets Wrote:  The safest option is to negotiate a merger but give Cal Stanford dramatically reduced exit fees to the Mountain Pacific Conference. Think it’s a fair trade off.

Does not sound like a fair deal to me.

At this point SDSU has just as much of a chance as Stanford to get into a power conference. And what if SDSU wanted to join the AAC? They would love the chance to leave with reduced exit fees.

Same going for Boise State.

(08-06-2023 11:47 AM)UofMstateU Wrote:  Its simple, which is why they wont do it.

for 2024
Cal Stanford WSt Or St in one 4-team pod
SMU Tulane Memphis USF in another 4-team pod

For 2025
Expand by 4, keeping the geographies doable for 2 6 team pods.

Done

You might get $15million to $20million with mostly linear out of that, because ESPN would certainly be a player.

USF is too far away to add. UTSA would be more likely outcome.

(08-06-2023 12:10 PM)ken d Wrote:  While you could make a decent 8 team league by poaching from the MWC, I doubt the MWC teams would leave and pay the relatively high exit fees. And I don't think you could get a full merger of the PAC and MWC on the PAC's terms.

The MWC would be in the driver's seat, and even if the PAC has to leave any accrued NCAAT credits and CFP status behind, it's still in their interest (and may be their only real option) to simply join the MWC for all sports. That won't give Cal enough revenue to cover their mortgage, but neither will any other option except getting a B1G invite. They have to look at their stadium debt, using financial terms, as a sunk cost, and plan for how they will survive going forward.

An MWC with the four PAC schools added won't be a P5 conference, but they will have the best shot at snagging one of the 6 CFP autobids of all the G5 conferences.

Temp merger would work as a way to pay the exit fees that way. PAC 4 schools could help the MWC to coax the Montana twins, Idaho, Weber State, Northern Arizona, UTEP, ACU, and the Dakota twins about think of moving up to join the MWC. SMU, Tulane, UTSA and Memphis are just a call away to fill out the rest of the PAC's lineup. I just don't see UNLV, Hawaii, San Jose State, Colorado State, New Mexico and Wyoming get to become PAC members in the future unless some of the MWC gets picked off by the Big 12.

(08-06-2023 01:03 PM)PlayBall! Wrote:  Stanford, post PAC, is not tied to Cal, IMHO. And has the advantage of being private, so not subject to all of CA's legislative meddling.

So, potentially the Big XII could pick them up. Would be for partial share = what media partners will provide. And likely we add UConn for the east as a reward to BY.

If the money was even remotely close, I bet that Stanford would choose to help rebuild the Pac for a few years. They'd probably need a full share, or reasonably close to it, to leave Cal behind.

(08-06-2023 12:37 PM)UIWElite Wrote:  

(08-06-2023 11:47 AM)UofMstateU Wrote:  Its simple, which is why they wont do it.

for 2024
Cal Stanford WSt Or St in one 4-team pod
SMU Tulane Memphis USF in another 4-team pod

For 2025
Expand by 4, keeping the geographies doable for 2 6 team pods.

Done

You might get $15million to $20million with mostly linear out of that, because ESPN would certainly be a player.

Ridiculous. ESPN didn’t want any part of the Pac 10 with Arizona, Oregon, and Washington, but they’re going to dole out 15-20M for Cal, Stanford, OSU, and WSU? Where do you guys come up with this stuff?

I think ESPN wanted the PAC 12 to raid the MWC conference first before a deal can be made to get them stabilized. ESPN does not have any MWC property at all.

(08-06-2023 01:18 PM)esayem Wrote:  

(08-06-2023 12:32 PM)Jericho Wrote:  The whole "join at a reduced rate" thing is largely a red herring. While technically possible, I'm aware of not school that is permanently accepting reduced shares just to be in a conference. Most new schools don't join at a full rate and Oregon and Washington struck a deal that will take quite a while to get a full share. But they're all getting there eventually. Which ultimately means, unless you bring enough value, you're not getting added. Papering over the problem with partial shares for a few years won't fix the major issue, whether or not you add enough value.

Correct. They are at a reduced rate for the remainder of this deal which ends in 2030 or '31. Then there will be a new negotiation in which they should be given full share. What that deal looks like is a mystery. It would be ironic if it ends up being with Apple or Amazon.

Oregon and Washington will actually miss the first year of the new B1G deal, it runs 7 years from '23 to '29. '30 is the first year of their next deal.

If the B1G chooses to go all in with anybody, it's probably Fox (if they can afford it). More likely is they go more of the NFL/NBA route with a significant streaming presence but a lot of OTA, too.