(08-03-2023 07:05 AM)esayem Wrote:  

(08-03-2023 03:12 AM)Gitanole Wrote:  Don't be surprised if this whole transition is far more cordial in character than the fan-fantasy dramas we read.

Jim Phillips hasn't really protested anything. Notice?

It's a pretty sure bet that nothing said in Tallahassee this week comes to him as a surprise.

ACC ADs had a long heart-to-heart recently after the Mag 7 list came out. Everyone in the ACC knows which schools appeared on that list (and so does everyone else).

Mr Phillips knows at least half the league wants to leave. Right now, that's half of his employers. And he still works for everybody.

I expect it's a matter of everyone playing their parts in a ritual dance that ends with Florida State as the first school, but not the last, to leave. The Seminoles will agree to pay. The amount will set records, but it will be manageable. People screaming for brimstone to fall onto the Seminoles from Charlotte won't get quite the fiery retribution they're looking for. All will move ahead. More schools will draw up their own plans.

The ACC commissioner knows the gap with the P2 is unbridgeable. He's got eyes in his head. He can read the numbers. He's knows #3 isn't good enough to keep everybody.

He wanted to move to the B1G, too, remember.

So let's chill. We're a class league in a time of changes. We can manage it.

This is fan-fiction. What the M7 (dumb name) wanted is more revenue because they believe they are undervalued in the current deal and deserve a higher payout. They explored the GOR, they explored unequal revenue sharing, I'm sure they explored expansion. Jumping to the conclusion that they all want to leave is absurd because frankly, there is nowhere to go for seven schools. I don't know why I have to keep repeating this, but the more schools the Big Ten/SEC add, the higher value the next additions MUST be in order to increase the payout.

Why on god's grey earth would Rutgers, UMd, Northwestern, Minnesota, Vandy, Ole Miss, Mizzou, all of these schools that are being paid much MORE than they're worth, vote to simultaneously decrease they paycheck and increase conference competition? Please somebody actually address this. The networks can only do so much (see Big Ten), and if they aren't paying the schools MORE, expansion WILL NOT HAPPEN


UW and Oregon's football programs are worth MORE than FSU's to put this in perspective.


1 Texas
7 Oklahoma

19 Washington
21 Oregon

23 USC
24 UCLA

26 Clemson
27 Florida State
28 VaTech

36 Georgia Tech - FTFY

41 Miami
46 State
50 Carolina
53 UVa

Source: WSJ


We can see why the SEC made such BOSS move and the Big Ten panicked and went waaaay outside of the footprint to grab the LA market. By adding those programs, did it made it impossible to pay UW/UO the same amount? This is where the partial pay idea comes from. What happens if they add a partial share and they renegotiate in seven years and the numbers aren't as high? The slices of Kevin Warren's apple pie aren't as large.

Can you say "Airport Meeting"?

Not all expansion moves are strictly about bottom line. If you're in charge of the B1G, you're looking at a shrinking population in every state in your footprint with the sole exception of Nebraska where there's not many people to begin with. You don't have a team in a major recruiting hotbed until UCLA and USC arrive. You may be on top now ... but the future is troubled. If you're the B1G you need large growing population states with major recruiting action which are academically strong, credible to play at that level, and either add money or don't substantially subtract money. Keep in mind there's a lot of ways to play with money. You could make marginal teams profitable for everyone in the B1G and make everyone more money if you only gave them a partial share that slowly escalated and matured into a full share. This isn't a new idea. Rutgers and Maryland received partial shares for years and years. I think Nebraska only just recently received their first full share.

Under the right conditions, I can see 7 or 8 ACC teams placed in the P2 no problem. The real money question is to what extent is the SEC willing to make sure the B1G isn't in the Deep South, and are they willing to strike first?

(08-03-2023 08:59 AM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote:  

(08-03-2023 07:05 AM)esayem Wrote:  

(08-03-2023 03:12 AM)Gitanole Wrote:  Don't be surprised if this whole transition is far more cordial in character than the fan-fantasy dramas we read.

Jim Phillips hasn't really protested anything. Notice?

It's a pretty sure bet that nothing said in Tallahassee this week comes to him as a surprise.

ACC ADs had a long heart-to-heart recently after the Mag 7 list came out. Everyone in the ACC knows which schools appeared on that list (and so does everyone else).

Mr Phillips knows at least half the league wants to leave. Right now, that's half of his employers. And he still works for everybody.

I expect it's a matter of everyone playing their parts in a ritual dance that ends with Florida State as the first school, but not the last, to leave. The Seminoles will agree to pay. The amount will set records, but it will be manageable. People screaming for brimstone to fall onto the Seminoles from Charlotte won't get quite the fiery retribution they're looking for. All will move ahead. More schools will draw up their own plans.

The ACC commissioner knows the gap with the P2 is unbridgeable. He's got eyes in his head. He can read the numbers. He's knows #3 isn't good enough to keep everybody.

He wanted to move to the B1G, too, remember.

So let's chill. We're a class league in a time of changes. We can manage it.

This is fan-fiction. What the M7 (dumb name) wanted is more revenue because they believe they are undervalued in the current deal and deserve a higher payout. They explored the GOR, they explored unequal revenue sharing, I'm sure they explored expansion. Jumping to the conclusion that they all want to leave is absurd because frankly, there is nowhere to go for seven schools. I don't know why I have to keep repeating this, but the more schools the Big Ten/SEC add, the higher value the next additions MUST be in order to increase the payout.

Why on god's grey earth would Rutgers, UMd, Northwestern, Minnesota, Vandy, Ole Miss, Mizzou, all of these schools that are being paid much MORE than they're worth, vote to simultaneously decrease they paycheck and increase conference competition? Please somebody actually address this. The networks can only do so much (see Big Ten), and if they aren't paying the schools MORE, expansion WILL NOT HAPPEN


UW and Oregon's football programs are worth MORE than FSU's to put this in perspective.


1 Texas
7 Oklahoma

19 Washington
21 Oregon

23 USC
24 UCLA

26 Clemson
27 Florida State
28 VaTech

36 Georgia Tech - FTFY

41 Miami
46 State
50 Carolina
53 UVa

Source: WSJ


We can see why the SEC made such BOSS move and the Big Ten panicked and went waaaay outside of the footprint to grab the LA market. By adding those programs, did it made it impossible to pay UW/UO the same amount? This is where the partial pay idea comes from. What happens if they add a partial share and they renegotiate in seven years and the numbers aren't as high? The slices of Kevin Warren's apple pie aren't as large.

Can you say "Airport Meeting"?

Not all expansion moves are strictly about bottom line. If you're in charge of the B1G, you're looking at a shrinking population in every state in your footprint with the sole exception of Nebraska where there's not many people to begin with. You don't have a team in a major recruiting hotbed until UCLA and USC arrive. You may be on top now ... but the future is troubled. If you're the B1G you need large growing population states with major recruiting action which are academically strong, credible to play at that level, and either add money or don't substantially subtract money. Keep in mind there's a lot of ways to play with money. You could make marginal teams profitable for everyone in the B1G and make everyone more money if you only gave them a partial share that slowly escalated and matured into a full share. This isn't a new idea. Rutgers and Maryland received partial shares for years and years. I think Nebraska only just recently received their first full share.

Under the right conditions, I can see 7 or 8 ACC teams placed in the P2 no problem. The real money question is to what extent is the SEC willing to make sure the B1G isn't in the Deep South, and are they willing to strike first?

Recruiting territory is massively overblown. Ohio State and Michigan recruit Florida fine, and have for years.

I've illustrated the problems with partial shares. When they do mature, there is the very real prospect of pie slices becoming smaller. This is not a good thing and frankly we are seeing it in the ACC, which it can be argued over expanded.

(08-03-2023 09:42 AM)esayem Wrote:  Ohio State and Michigan recruit Florida fine, and have for years.

Yet they've typically been getting their butts handed to them by southern teams in bowl games. Yeah they can pick off some good recruits here and there but it's a numbers game. The deep south has the vast majority of the top football recruits. Just look at the bowl results against southern teams, especially over the last 15-20 years.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michigan_W...Bowl_games

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Oh...bowl_games

(08-03-2023 10:57 AM)b2b Wrote:  

(08-03-2023 09:42 AM)esayem Wrote:  Ohio State and Michigan recruit Florida fine, and have for years.

Yet they've typically been getting their butts handed to them by southern teams in bowl games. Yeah they can pick off some good recruits here and there but it's a numbers game. The deep south has the vast majority of the top football recruits. Just look at the bowl results against southern teams, especially over the last 15-20 years.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michigan_W...Bowl_games

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Oh...bowl_games

Correct. Having a Big Ten school in Florida does not help them either.

(08-03-2023 09:42 AM)esayem Wrote:  ...the problems with partial shares. When they do mature, there is the very real prospect of pie slices becoming smaller. This is not a good thing and frankly we are seeing it in the ACC, which it can be argued over expanded.

I agreed with you until I got to this point. The implication is that the ACC would be better off without Louisville, Syracuse, Pitt and/or BC? Not likely, because it would still have four teams in North Carolina.

The problem the ACC has always had with revenue is simple: North Carolina isn't big enough to pay for four teams - for two, maybe, but not four. The two smallest, least profitable football programs in FBS are Duke and Wake Forest. If we can be unbiased for a moment, it's pretty clear what needs to be done - but ejecting the Northern teams solves nothing.

(08-03-2023 06:29 AM)CrazyPaco Wrote:  

(08-03-2023 03:12 AM)Gitanole Wrote:  Don't be surprised if this whole transition is far more cordial in character than the fan-fantasy dramas we read.

Jim Phillips hasn't really protested anything. Notice?

It's a pretty sure bet that nothing said in Tallahassee this week comes to him as a surprise.

ACC ADs had a long heart-to-heart recently after the Mag 7 list came out. Everyone in the ACC knows which schools appeared on that list (and so does everyone else).

Mr Phillips knows at least half the league wants to leave. Right now, that's half of his employers. And he still works for everybody.

I expect it's a matter of everyone playing their parts in a ritual dance that ends with Florida State as the first school, but not the last, to leave. The Seminoles will agree to pay. The amount will set records, but it will be manageable. People screaming for brimstone to fall onto the Seminoles from Charlotte won't get quite the fiery retribution they're looking for. All will move ahead. More schools will draw up their own plans.

The ACC commissioner knows the gap with the P2 is unbridgeable. He's got eyes in his head. He can read the numbers. He's knows #3 isn't good enough to keep everybody.

He wanted to move to the B1G, too, remember.

So let's chill. We're a class league in a time of changes. We can manage it.

That is wishful thinking, at best. There isn't going to be some kumbaya moment with this much money and stakes.

FSU has painted itself into a corner, and rhetorically smeared the conference, with an absolutely unbelievable public board meeting broadcast across the internet. There is a reason you don't see discussions like this done publicly in higher ed. If FSU didn't already take a match to the bridge, it is standing right on it with a torch in its hand. It really was astounding. Quite frankly, probably astoundingly stupid.

I wouldn't call multiple schools leaving a conference a 'kumbaya moment,' exactly.

It's simply what's in store.

(08-03-2023 03:03 PM)Gitanole Wrote:  

(08-03-2023 06:29 AM)CrazyPaco Wrote:  

(08-03-2023 03:12 AM)Gitanole Wrote:  Don't be surprised if this whole transition is far more cordial in character than the fan-fantasy dramas we read.

Jim Phillips hasn't really protested anything. Notice?

It's a pretty sure bet that nothing said in Tallahassee this week comes to him as a surprise.

ACC ADs had a long heart-to-heart recently after the Mag 7 list came out. Everyone in the ACC knows which schools appeared on that list (and so does everyone else).

Mr Phillips knows at least half the league wants to leave. Right now, that's half of his employers. And he still works for everybody.

I expect it's a matter of everyone playing their parts in a ritual dance that ends with Florida State as the first school, but not the last, to leave. The Seminoles will agree to pay. The amount will set records, but it will be manageable. People screaming for brimstone to fall onto the Seminoles from Charlotte won't get quite the fiery retribution they're looking for. All will move ahead. More schools will draw up their own plans.

The ACC commissioner knows the gap with the P2 is unbridgeable. He's got eyes in his head. He can read the numbers. He's knows #3 isn't good enough to keep everybody.

He wanted to move to the B1G, too, remember.

So let's chill. We're a class league in a time of changes. We can manage it.

That is wishful thinking, at best. There isn't going to be some kumbaya moment with this much money and stakes.

FSU has painted itself into a corner, and rhetorically smeared the conference, with an absolutely unbelievable public board meeting broadcast across the internet. There is a reason you don't see discussions like this done publicly in higher ed. If FSU didn't already take a match to the bridge, it is standing right on it with a torch in its hand. It really was astounding. Quite frankly, probably astoundingly stupid.

I wouldn't call multiple schools leaving a conference a 'kumbaya moment,' exactly.

It's simply what's in store.

As is lot of $ and legal issues for FSU.

Let's say 4 schools leave early. What would the windfall look like for the rest?

1. exit fees: 4 X $120M = $480M
2. GoR buyout (let's assume $300M settlement): 4 X $300M = $1.2B
3. If they all go to the SEC, ESPN would keep ACC payout the same to avoid damages.

$480M + $1,200M = $1,680M divided by 10 teams = $168M each.
Spread that over the remaining 13 years: $168M/13 yrs = $12.9M/year per school.

Since Forbes projects ACC payouts to be $36M/year (average) over the next 13 years, that brings the total per year to $36M + $13M = $49M each, and that's NOT including CFP money, bowls, NCAA units, etc. (typically another $5M to $10M, but we'll call it $5M). So the Grand Total payouts would be around $54M each.

Now, that may not be SEC/B1G money, but dadgum, it's not bad!
__________

By contrast, the 4 who left would be getting SEC money MINUS the exit fees and buyouts. If we assume SEC payouts to be $75M to $80M, and the total cost to leave is $120M exit fee + $300M GoR settlement = $420M, then the annualized cost is approximately $420M/13 years = $32M/year. So the next revenue for the four would be $75M - $32M = $43M each (If we assume $80M in the SEC, the net is $48M).

Well, whad'ya know... the ones that stay stand to make more than those who leave! (at least over the next 13 years). Long-term, it's better to be in the SEC of course, but not at first.

(08-03-2023 04:21 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  Let's say 4 schools leave early. What would the windfall look like for the rest?

1. exit fees: 4 X $120M = $480M
2. GoR buyout (let's assume $300M settlement): 4 X $300M = $1.2B Too low
3. If they all go to the SEC, ESPN would keep ACC payout the same to avoid damages.

$480M + $1,200M = $1,680M divided by 10 teams = $168M each.
Spread that over the remaining 13 years: $168M/13 yrs = $12.9M/year per school.

Since Forbes projects ACC payouts to be $36M/year (average) way too low, ACC is already at over $39+ the next 13 years, that brings the total per year to $36M + $13M = $49M each, and that's NOT including CFP money, bowls, NCAA units, etc. (typically another $5M to $10M, but we'll call it $5M). So the Grand Total payouts would be around $54M each.

Now, that may not be SEC/B1G money, but dadgum, it's not bad!
__________

By contrast, the 4 who left would be getting SEC money MINUS the exit fees and buyouts. If we assume SEC payouts to be $75M to $80M, and the total cost to leave is $120M exit fee + $300M GoR settlement = $420M, then the annualized cost is approximately $420M/13 years = $32M/year. So the next revenue for the four would be $75M - $32M = $43M each (If we assume $80M in the SEC, the net is $48M).

Well, whad'ya know... the ones that stay stand to make more than those who leave! (at least over the next 13 years). Long-term, it's better to be in the SEC of course, but not at first.

this ^^

(08-03-2023 04:21 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  Let's say 4 schools leave early. What would the windfall look like for the rest?

1. exit fees: 4 X $120M = $480M
2. GoR buyout (let's assume $300M settlement): 4 X $300M = $1.2B
3. If they all go to the SEC, ESPN would keep ACC payout the same to avoid damages.

$480M + $1,200M = $1,680M divided by 10 teams = $168M each.
Spread that over the remaining 13 years: $168M/13 yrs = $12.9M/year per school.

Since Forbes projects ACC payouts to be $36M/year (average) over the next 13 years, that brings the total per year to $36M + $13M = $49M each, and that's NOT including CFP money, bowls, NCAA units, etc. (typically another $5M to $10M, but we'll call it $5M). So the Grand Total payouts would be around $54M each.

Now, that may not be SEC/B1G money, but dadgum, it's not bad!
__________

By contrast, the 4 who left would be getting SEC money MINUS the exit fees and buyouts. If we assume SEC payouts to be $75M to $80M, and the total cost to leave is $120M exit fee + $300M GoR settlement = $420M, then the annualized cost is approximately $420M/13 years = $32M/year. So the next revenue for the four would be $75M - $32M = $43M each (If we assume $80M in the SEC, the net is $48M).

Well, whad'ya know... the ones that stay stand to make more than those who leave! (at least over the next 13 years). Long-term, it's better to be in the SEC of course, but not at first.

sec & b1g renegotiate tv package before 2036 ...
2034 & 2030 respectively ....
failing to account for gate receipts ...
must-see contests vs name opponents guarantee sellouts at premium pricing ...

INCOME STREAMS

(08-03-2023 04:21 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  Let's say 4 schools leave early. What would the windfall look like for the rest?

1. exit fees: 4 X $120M = $480M
2. GoR buyout (let's assume $300M settlement): 4 X $300M = $1.2B
3. If they all go to the SEC, ESPN would keep ACC payout the same to avoid damages.

$480M + $1,200M = $1,680M divided by 10 teams = $168M each.
Spread that over the remaining 13 years: $168M/13 yrs = $12.9M/year per school.

Since Forbes projects ACC payouts to be $36M/year (average) over the next 13 years, that brings the total per year to $36M + $13M = $49M each, and that's NOT including CFP money, bowls, NCAA units, etc. (typically another $5M to $10M, but we'll call it $5M). So the Grand Total payouts would be around $54M each.

Now, that may not be SEC/B1G money, but dadgum, it's not bad!
__________

By contrast, the 4 who left would be getting SEC money MINUS the exit fees and buyouts. If we assume SEC payouts to be $75M to $80M, and the total cost to leave is $120M exit fee + $300M GoR settlement = $420M, then the annualized cost is approximately $420M/13 years = $32M/year. So the next revenue for the four would be $75M - $32M = $43M each (If we assume $80M in the SEC, the net is $48M).

Well, whad'ya know... the ones that stay stand to make more than those who leave! (at least over the next 13 years). Long-term, it's better to be in the SEC of course, but not at first.

Forbes magazine's sports folks are known to take short cuts putting their numbers together.

Let's just use the ACC's IRS 990 forms to estimate revenue:

ACC TV Revenue and Overall Revenue

Year TV Contract Average Total Average ACC Distribution
14 $13.6 M $19.8 M
15 $15 M $26 M
16 $15.6 M $23.5 M
17 $16 M $26.5 M
18 $19 M $29 M
19 $22 M $29 M
20 $24.4 M $32.5 M
21 $28 M $36.5 M
22 $31 M $40 M

As you can clearly see the ACC’s TV money has increased an average of 10% per year since 2014. Some years as little as 4% and 12-15% per year with the ACC network online.

Since 2014 ACC TV money has increased on a per school basis by 143%.
The internal ratchet of the ACC TV contract without added markets or an outside bump is about 4-5% per year. That’s 4-5% per year through 2036. Lets take the TV money forward without any outside bump, added ACCN states or schools:

23 $32.3
24 $34
25 $35.3
26 $37
27 $39
28 $41
29 $43
30 $45
31 $47
32 $49
33 $51.5
34 $54
35 $56.5
36 $59

This should give a deeper perspective into those complaining about future revenue from other conferences. Those future revenues are compared to the ACC’s 2013/14 distribution with all ratchets and escalators and ACCN ignored. So when FSU spouts this stuff you have to wonder do they believe their own horse ****?

Also remember that the extra money made from the football playoff will also go to ACC schools. Keep in mind that going forward there will be no contracts with Rose, Orange, and Sugar bowls and the B10, SEC, and B12 each lose $40 a year from that. (made up bigger playoff shares)

But the poor ole ACC only made $27.5 m off the Orange Bowl so we only lose $27.5 m to get our equal share of the playoff bonanza.

Let's take those restrained TV numbers and going forward add the current level of NCAA payments which is $6-7 M and let's whip up a playoff number all can share. Lets estimate that all P-4 schools pay out about $9 M per year for the football playoff to each school. This does not include a bonus for those playing in the playoff. For the ACC let's make this $15 M a year.

So here is your realistic total ACC distribution going forward:

23 $42 m
24 $49 m
25 $51 m
26 $53 m
27 $55 m
28 $57 m
29 $58 m
30 $60 m
31 $62 m
32 $64 m
33 $66 m
34 $68 m
35 $71 m
36 $74 m

While it's not been stated by them, FSU wants to be like ND and keep it's bowl money or keep its playoff money.

I suspect the SEC will provide their playoff participants with a great bonus - perhaps allowing them to keep as much as $10 million for a spot in the playoff and $5 million for each win.

The ACC would of course balk at something so brazen, particularly Duke and UNC who have shared their basketball winnings with the conference lo these last 40 years. As a preface to demanding half the pot of the football playoff to the conference, some of FSU's recent mouth takes on a more understandable form.

(08-03-2023 04:47 PM)green Wrote:  

(08-03-2023 04:21 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  Let's say 4 schools leave early. What would the windfall look like for the rest?

1. exit fees: 4 X $120M = $480M
2. GoR buyout (let's assume $300M settlement): 4 X $300M = $1.2B
3. If they all go to the SEC, ESPN would keep ACC payout the same to avoid damages.

$480M + $1,200M = $1,680M divided by 10 teams = $168M each.
Spread that over the remaining 13 years: $168M/13 yrs = $12.9M/year per school.

Since Forbes projects ACC payouts to be $36M/year (average) over the next 13 years, that brings the total per year to $36M + $13M = $49M each, and that's NOT including CFP money, bowls, NCAA units, etc. (typically another $5M to $10M, but we'll call it $5M). So the Grand Total payouts would be around $54M each.

Now, that may not be SEC/B1G money, but dadgum, it's not bad!
__________

By contrast, the 4 who left would be getting SEC money MINUS the exit fees and buyouts. If we assume SEC payouts to be $75M to $80M, and the total cost to leave is $120M exit fee + $300M GoR settlement = $420M, then the annualized cost is approximately $420M/13 years = $32M/year. So the next revenue for the four would be $75M - $32M = $43M each (If we assume $80M in the SEC, the net is $48M).

Well, whad'ya know... the ones that stay stand to make more than those who leave! (at least over the next 13 years). Long-term, it's better to be in the SEC of course, but not at first.

sec & b1g renegotiate tv package before 2036 ...
2034 & 2030 respectively ....
failing to account for gate receipts ...
must-see contests vs name opponents guarantee sellouts at premium pricing ...

INCOME STREAMS

...and we'll see if that's a good or bad thing for them

TOO EARLY TO TELL

According to all the FSU folks, I really thought FSU was leaving like yesterday? It seems like there was a lot of rumors stated as facts...SMH


@Brett_McMurphy

Florida State has not scheduled a Board of Regents meeting for Tuesday, the deadline to notify the ACC if a team is leaving before 2024 season. FSU's board must approve any membership change, so the Seminoles will remain in ACC ... for now

Link
https://twitter.com/Brett_McMurphy/statu...gr%5Etweet

(08-03-2023 04:21 PM)Hokie Mark Wrote:  Let's say 4 schools leave early. What would the windfall look like for the rest?

1. exit fees: 4 X $120M = $480M
2. GoR buyout (let's assume $300M settlement): 4 X $300M = $1.2B
3. If they all go to the SEC, ESPN would keep ACC payout the same to avoid damages.

$480M + $1,200M = $1,680M divided by 10 teams = $168M each.
Spread that over the remaining 13 years: $168M/13 yrs = $12.9M/year per school.

Since Forbes projects ACC payouts to be $36M/year (average) over the next 13 years, that brings the total per year to $36M + $13M = $49M each, and that's NOT including CFP money, bowls, NCAA units, etc. (typically another $5M to $10M, but we'll call it $5M). So the Grand Total payouts would be around $54M each.

Now, that may not be SEC/B1G money, but dadgum, it's not bad!
__________

By contrast, the 4 who left would be getting SEC money MINUS the exit fees and buyouts. If we assume SEC payouts to be $75M to $80M, and the total cost to leave is $120M exit fee + $300M GoR settlement = $420M, then the annualized cost is approximately $420M/13 years = $32M/year. So the next revenue for the four would be $75M - $32M = $43M each (If we assume $80M in the SEC, the net is $48M).

Well, whad'ya know... the ones that stay stand to make more than those who leave! (at least over the next 13 years). Long-term, it's better to be in the SEC of course, but not at first.

Plus the fun of watching your team go 6-6 in the SEC or November games in a Midwestern Tundra playing B1G schools.

(08-03-2023 05:55 PM)SouthernConfBoy Wrote:  While it's not been stated by them, FSU wants to be like ND and keep it's bowl money or keep its playoff money.

I suspect the SEC will provide their playoff participants with a great bonus - perhaps allowing them to keep as much as $10 million for a spot in the playoff and $5 million for each win.

The ACC would of course balk at something so brazen, particularly Duke and UNC who have shared their basketball winnings with the conference lo these last 40 years. As a preface to demanding half the pot of the football playoff to the conference, some of FSU's recent mouth takes on a more understandable form.

Imitation is the sincerest form of flattery, I guess.

So, are you saying that for ten years, whenever FSU fans groused about ND's status with the ACC, it was merely because they envied ND's setup?

It wasn't about a Merry Band of all for one, one for all regarding the other ACC members ??

Strange. Very strange.

I was told for decades that conferences were morally superior because of their Three Musketeers attitudes of equality amongst all members.

Interesting.

(08-03-2023 07:05 AM)esayem Wrote:  

(08-03-2023 03:12 AM)Gitanole Wrote:  Don't be surprised if this whole transition is far more cordial in character than the fan-fantasy dramas we read.

Jim Phillips hasn't really protested anything. Notice?

It's a pretty sure bet that nothing said in Tallahassee this week comes to him as a surprise.

ACC ADs had a long heart-to-heart recently after the Mag 7 list came out. Everyone in the ACC knows which schools appeared on that list (and so does everyone else).

Mr Phillips knows at least half the league wants to leave. Right now, that's half of his employers. And he still works for everybody.

I expect it's a matter of everyone playing their parts in a ritual dance that ends with Florida State as the first school, but not the last, to leave. The Seminoles will agree to pay. The amount will set records, but it will be manageable. People screaming for brimstone to fall onto the Seminoles from Charlotte won't get quite the fiery retribution they're looking for. All will move ahead. More schools will draw up their own plans.

The ACC commissioner knows the gap with the P2 is unbridgeable. He's got eyes in his head. He can read the numbers. He's knows #3 isn't good enough to keep everybody.

He wanted to move to the B1G, too, remember.

So let's chill. We're a class league in a time of changes. We can manage it.

This is fan-fiction. What the M7 (dumb name) wanted is more revenue because they believe they are undervalued in the current deal and deserve a higher payout. They explored the GOR, they explored unequal revenue sharing, I'm sure they explored expansion. Jumping to the conclusion that they all want to leave is absurd because frankly, there is nowhere to go for seven schools. I don't know why I have to keep repeating this, but the more schools the Big Ten/SEC add, the higher value the next additions MUST be in order to increase the payout.

Why on god's grey earth would Rutgers, UMd, Northwestern, Minnesota, Vandy, Ole Miss, Mizzou, all of these schools that are being paid much MORE than they're worth, vote to simultaneously decrease they paycheck and increase conference competition? Please somebody actually address this. The networks can only do so much (see Big Ten), and if they aren't paying the schools MORE, expansion WILL NOT HAPPEN


UW and Oregon's football programs are worth MORE than FSU's to put this in perspective.


1 Texas
7 Oklahoma

19 Washington
21 Oregon

23 USC
24 UCLA

26 Clemson
27 Florida State
28 VaTech

41 Miami
46 State
50 Carolina
53 UVa

Source: WSJ


We can see why the SEC made such BOSS move and the Big Ten panicked and went waaaay outside of the footprint to grab the LA market. By adding those programs, did it made it impossible to pay UW/UO the same amount? This is where the partial pay idea comes from. What happens if they add a partial share and they renegotiate in seven years and the numbers aren't as high? The slices of Kevin Warren's apple pie aren't as large.

Can you say "Airport Meeting"?

Kevin Warren thought that ND would just roll right over last summer when the Big Ten added USC.

USC, NBC and the Big Ten put the full court press on ND all last summer to join, to no avail.

Warren wanted to use ND's excess value (if it joined) to fund the full shares of Washington and Oregon last year.

When ND balked, that plan fell apart. We are looking at Plan B now.

(08-03-2023 08:59 AM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote:  

(08-03-2023 07:05 AM)esayem Wrote:  

(08-03-2023 03:12 AM)Gitanole Wrote:  Don't be surprised if this whole transition is far more cordial in character than the fan-fantasy dramas we read.

Jim Phillips hasn't really protested anything. Notice?

It's a pretty sure bet that nothing said in Tallahassee this week comes to him as a surprise.

ACC ADs had a long heart-to-heart recently after the Mag 7 list came out. Everyone in the ACC knows which schools appeared on that list (and so does everyone else).

Mr Phillips knows at least half the league wants to leave. Right now, that's half of his employers. And he still works for everybody.

I expect it's a matter of everyone playing their parts in a ritual dance that ends with Florida State as the first school, but not the last, to leave. The Seminoles will agree to pay. The amount will set records, but it will be manageable. People screaming for brimstone to fall onto the Seminoles from Charlotte won't get quite the fiery retribution they're looking for. All will move ahead. More schools will draw up their own plans.

The ACC commissioner knows the gap with the P2 is unbridgeable. He's got eyes in his head. He can read the numbers. He's knows #3 isn't good enough to keep everybody.

He wanted to move to the B1G, too, remember.

So let's chill. We're a class league in a time of changes. We can manage it.

This is fan-fiction. What the M7 (dumb name) wanted is more revenue because they believe they are undervalued in the current deal and deserve a higher payout. They explored the GOR, they explored unequal revenue sharing, I'm sure they explored expansion. Jumping to the conclusion that they all want to leave is absurd because frankly, there is nowhere to go for seven schools. I don't know why I have to keep repeating this, but the more schools the Big Ten/SEC add, the higher value the next additions MUST be in order to increase the payout.

Why on god's grey earth would Rutgers, UMd, Northwestern, Minnesota, Vandy, Ole Miss, Mizzou, all of these schools that are being paid much MORE than they're worth, vote to simultaneously decrease they paycheck and increase conference competition? Please somebody actually address this. The networks can only do so much (see Big Ten), and if they aren't paying the schools MORE, expansion WILL NOT HAPPEN


UW and Oregon's football programs are worth MORE than FSU's to put this in perspective.


1 Texas
7 Oklahoma

19 Washington
21 Oregon

23 USC
24 UCLA

26 Clemson
27 Florida State
28 VaTech

36 Georgia Tech - FTFY

41 Miami
46 State
50 Carolina
53 UVa

Source: WSJ


We can see why the SEC made such BOSS move and the Big Ten panicked and went waaaay outside of the footprint to grab the LA market. By adding those programs, did it made it impossible to pay UW/UO the same amount? This is where the partial pay idea comes from. What happens if they add a partial share and they renegotiate in seven years and the numbers aren't as high? The slices of Kevin Warren's apple pie aren't as large.

Can you say "Airport Meeting"?

Not all expansion moves are strictly about bottom line. If you're in charge of the B1G, you're looking at a shrinking population in every state in your footprint with the sole exception of Nebraska where there's not many people to begin with. You don't have a team in a major recruiting hotbed until UCLA and USC arrive. You may be on top now ... but the future is troubled. If you're the B1G you need large growing population states with major recruiting action which are academically strong, credible to play at that level, and either add money or don't substantially subtract money. Keep in mind there's a lot of ways to play with money. You could make marginal teams profitable for everyone in the B1G and make everyone more money if you only gave them a partial share that slowly escalated and matured into a full share. This isn't a new idea. Rutgers and Maryland received partial shares for years and years. I think Nebraska only just recently received their first full share.

Under the right conditions, I can see 7 or 8 ACC teams placed in the P2 no problem. The real money question is to what extent is the SEC willing to make sure the B1G isn't in the Deep South, and are they willing to strike first?

If I was in charge of the B1G's expansion. The first school I would attempt to land would be Georgia Tech (without question or hesitation) and the second would be North Carolina (and if the Tar Heels wouldn't come, I would move over to NC State).

Quote:CBS, Fox and NBC know exactly how much extra they will have to pay as part of their rights deals with the Big Ten if the conference were to land Notre Dame within the next seven years. That specific dollar figure, which is not publicly known, is spelled out in the contracts. No other school is mentioned in these deals by name, and the contracts do not assign a dollar figure to any other school that may join the conference, according to sources. Notre Dame is the only school that has specific language about escalators. If, say, the Big Ten adds two West Coast teams, the networks have agreed to have good-faith conversations with the conference about opening their deals and adjusting their rights fees. However, the specific increases are not spelled out in the contract language. Having a specific number attached to Notre Dame provides the conference and the Fighting Irish with some certainly for the value of their rights if the Irish do decide to join the Big Ten.

swarbrick & warren hashed out addendum ...
I believe ...
if and when acc goes the way of the dodo ...

CONTINGENCY PLAN

If the B1G could secure Georgia Tech and North Carolina they would be set at 20.

The next moves the B1G should consider would be Syracuse and either Miami or South Florida.