I think the Arizonas and Utah jump to the Big 12. Oregon and Washington get a discounted invite to the BIG. Oregon St and Washington St probably go to the MWC. Stanford could go Indy in football and try and work a deal similar to ND’s with the ACC. Cal is the only one that I’m not sure about.

(08-03-2023 03:43 PM)b0ndsj0ns Wrote:  

(08-03-2023 01:50 PM)monarx Wrote:  

(08-03-2023 01:39 PM)ODU2017 Wrote:  

(08-03-2023 01:05 PM)monarx Wrote:  I don't understand why the PAC is being so slow. Its obvious they're bleeding out. They still have enough advantages to lure SDSU, UNLV, Boise, SMU, and Memphis. If they don't do it now, there may not be enough to convince them to leave once its all settled. SMU and SDSU would have killed for an invite last month. Next month they could actually turn it down.

Stanford would burn down their stadium for the insurance money before they join a conference with any of those schools.

SDSU isn't bad, nor is SMU. They could potentially grab Tulane and Rice if they act quickly.

You mean 2 schools that you guys mock the AAC for having and think the AAC deal should be shredded over?

Well they won't be going to the Pac-12 because of their supreme athletics and fan interest...

(08-03-2023 03:43 PM)b0ndsj0ns Wrote:  

(08-03-2023 01:50 PM)monarx Wrote:  

(08-03-2023 01:39 PM)ODU2017 Wrote:  

(08-03-2023 01:05 PM)monarx Wrote:  I don't understand why the PAC is being so slow. Its obvious they're bleeding out. They still have enough advantages to lure SDSU, UNLV, Boise, SMU, and Memphis. If they don't do it now, there may not be enough to convince them to leave once its all settled. SMU and SDSU would have killed for an invite last month. Next month they could actually turn it down.

Stanford would burn down their stadium for the insurance money before they join a conference with any of those schools.

SDSU isn't bad, nor is SMU. They could potentially grab Tulane and Rice if they act quickly.

You mean 2 schools that you guys mock the AAC for having and think the AAC deal should be shredded over?

Not me.

I chuckle at the Tulane and rice talk.

Both have less than zero percent chance of making it into a viable PAC (a pac with just osu and wazzu left is not really the pac).

For all the reasons we mock them.

(08-02-2023 09:15 PM)Eagle in the gym Wrote:  

(08-02-2023 08:27 PM)rileylives Wrote:  I think the Pac 12 lives on.

Probably in some form like below.

Cal
Oregon State
Washington State
Stanford
San Diego State
SMU
Fresno State
Colorado State
Air Firce
UNLV
Boise State
Rice
Tulane
Memphis


It's definitely going to become a Frankenstein. A little of everything and what's left, trying to push as far east as they can to gain additional time alots.

If MWC and aac get bloody after the pac collapse, we could be looking at some prime playoff opportunities with a conference ratings like:
1 sec
2 big ten
3 acc
4 big twelve
5 pac whatever
6 SBC
7 Mac
8 aac
9 MWC
10 CUSA

SBC would have to be in the 5 slot in this scenario, also—with continuity and everyone working towards bettering their Athletic Departments, I’d bet the SBC could eventually challenge for the 3 and 4 spot annually.

I've said this many times before. The PAC as we know it is dead. There is no media deal that will save them. Arizona schools ready to jump, once the Big10 makes its selection of a combination of UO, WU, Cal, or Stanford ( at a 50% discount) then Utah, if they haven't already, will move to Big12. The remaining PAC will merge with the MWC. They will be another mid tier conference. The wild card is ND. They have to be getting pressure from NBC to join the Big10. So it maybe possible Cal or Stanford gets left out to leave room for ND. Also, the next blow-up is looking like it'll happen sooner than later. The ACC is not long for this world. I thought they would hold together for a few more years, but looks like FSU is going to light that firework off soon.

When it's all done it'll be P2 +1. Then everyone else. You might see a reshuffling of the chairs, but there will be a huge divide between the Big10, SEC, Big12 and the rest of FBS. Money is drying up, ESPN is looking to sell assets so don't think the next round of TV deals will save any of us. A lot of conferences better start looking to tighten their budgets when the new deals are made. Maybe they stay at the same level, but likely there will be cuts.

(08-02-2023 08:27 PM)rileylives Wrote:  I think the Pac 12 lives on.

Probably in some form like below.

Cal
Oregon State
Washington State
Stanford
San Diego State
SMU
Fresno State
Colorado State
Air Firce
UNLV
Boise State
Rice
Tulane
Memphis


It's definitely going to become a Frankenstein. A little of everything and what's left, trying to push as far east as they can to gain additional time alots.

They will be way more selective and will likely try to stay small in order to keep the exclusivity perception intact. Schools will get paid out based on raw Apple TV clicks

Stanford
Cal
Oregon State
Washington State
Hawaii
UNLV
Nevada
SDSU
Boise

(08-03-2023 06:45 PM)Shox Wrote:  Selective…exclusivity…
Boise?

(08-03-2023 06:34 PM)trueeagle98 Wrote:  I've said this many times before. The PAC as we know it is dead. There is no media deal that will save them. Arizona schools ready to jump, once the Big10 makes its selection of a combination of UO, WU, Cal, or Stanford ( at a 50% discount) then Utah, if they haven't already, will move to Big12. The remaining PAC will merge with the MWC. They will be another mid tier conference. The wild card is ND. They have to be getting pressure from NBC to join the Big10. So it maybe possible Cal or Stanford gets left out to leave room for ND. Also, the next blow-up is looking like it'll happen sooner than later. The ACC is not long for this world. I thought they would hold together for a few more years, but looks like FSU is going to light that firework off soon.

When it's all done it'll be P2 +1. Then everyone else. You might see a reshuffling of the chairs, but there will be a huge divide between the Big10, SEC, Big12 and the rest of FBS. Money is drying up, ESPN is looking to sell assets so don't think the next round of TV deals will save any of us. A lot of conferences better start looking to tighten their budgets when the new deals are made. Maybe they stay at the same level, but likely there will be cuts.

This right here may put a bigger damper on movement than most expect.

I've seen a few stories that the media partners were asking B12 to stop at 2 adds, even though their last contract allowed for 4 more to join. Fox was the one rumored to be flinching, so it could be both Fox and ESPN trying to reel this back some.

How many more slots at $30-70m per pop the networks will spend right now is TBD, and its certainly not as many as the schools that would like to move.

If someone with very deep pockets (Apple, Amazon, etc) acquires ESPN and decides to bankroll it, maybe this accelerates. Right now there's a lot of indicators they are going to put the brakes on spending.

(08-03-2023 01:40 PM)jmu98 Wrote:  

(08-03-2023 01:31 PM)EigenEagle Wrote:  I really hope the 6 conference bids for the CFP thing is locked in and it doesn't change to 5 of the Pac gets watered down too much.

It will definitely not change for 24 or 25, but definitely could change when deal is renegotiated and was probably going to change any way. However, if everything that has happened and is happening tells you anything is that this is all about money and therefore I expect an even larger playoff starting in 26 and there will still be at least one spot for the G5.

Behind the scenes I also suspect ESPN will get a voice in what that playoff format looks like. That bodes well for us keeping access in some fashion.

It is possible they could expand to 16, and only keep 6 conference auto bids. Best case scenario would be 8+8, but seems unlikely with power conference consolidation. What we almost certainly won't see is the G5 dream of 10+6.

If it's just those four left, I think you try and pull together a 'best of the rest' conference.

Pacific Division
Stanford
Cal
Oregon State
Washington State
SDSU

Eastern Division
SMU
Tulane
Memphis
Colorado State
Boise State

Gets you back to 10, and divisions limit the amount of contact (in football) the legacy PAC schools have with the newbies.

You could also try and add Rice and USF if you really wanted to and punt Boise/CSU into the pacific div

I don’t think the money is drying up for college sports.

It’s just being reallocated and the haves will get all the rights fees and the have nots will get pennies.

The networks have been paying 50m to big ten and sec schools.

ESPN/fox are ok going to 70m for Big ten and sec schools and 40m to Oregon.

They are not ok paying 40m to Cal or Washington state or wake forest.


As the price per team goes to $70per, the networks are just reducing the number of teams they are willing to pay.
But the total cost to the networks is in the same ballpark, if not slightly higher or lower, then it’s always been. But it’s going to the biggest brands that draw the biggest ratings.

It’s reallocating Oregon States and Georgia Techs payment and giving it to Georgia and Michigan.

(08-04-2023 06:22 AM)Blue_Trombone Wrote:  If it's just those four left, I think you try and pull together a 'best of the rest' conference.

Pacific Division
Stanford
Cal
Oregon State
Washington State
SDSU

Eastern Division
SMU
Tulane
Memphis
Colorado State
Boise State

Gets you back to 10, and divisions limit the amount of contact (in football) the legacy PAC schools have with the newbies.

You could also try and add Rice and USF if you really wanted to and punt Boise/CSU into the pacific div

You are talking about the MWC teams in that group paying 34 million to join that league, and the AAC schools paying probably 20+ million to join it. What kind of TV deal do you actually expect that league could pull? I think the absolute ceiling would be maybe Apple would offer that 15 million all streaming, and reality would be more like something that resembles the original AAC deal when it was signed. Honestly I don't even know if that conference is better than the 12 team AAC at the time they signed the deal at a much better time to be signing TV deals.

UCF
USF
Navy/Wichita
Temple
ECU
UCONN
Houston
Cincy
Tulane
Tulsa
SMU
Memphis

I don't expect this board to agree but the AAC at the time of signing that deal was a better league than what you are proposing, and negotiated at a much better time for TV deals, and got 7 million on average.

(08-04-2023 06:22 AM)Blue_Trombone Wrote:  If it's just those four left, I think you try and pull together a 'best of the rest' conference.

Pacific Division
Stanford
Cal
Oregon State
Washington State
SDSU

Eastern Division
SMU
Tulane
Memphis
Colorado State
Boise State

Gets you back to 10, and divisions limit the amount of contact (in football) the legacy PAC schools have with the newbies.

You could also try and add Rice and USF if you really wanted to and punt Boise/CSU into the pacific div

Agree for the most part. Here is what I would try to do:


Stanford
Cal
Oregon State
Wash State
SDSU
Colo State
UNLV
Tulane
SMU
Rice
Boise
Air Force
One of the following Memphis, UTSA, or Tulsa.

Navy-Football only and Gonzaga basketball only.

(08-04-2023 07:24 AM)b0ndsj0ns Wrote:  

(08-04-2023 06:22 AM)Blue_Trombone Wrote:  If it's just those four left, I think you try and pull together a 'best of the rest' conference.

Pacific Division
Stanford
Cal
Oregon State
Washington State
SDSU

Eastern Division
SMU
Tulane
Memphis
Colorado State
Boise State

Gets you back to 10, and divisions limit the amount of contact (in football) the legacy PAC schools have with the newbies.

You could also try and add Rice and USF if you really wanted to and punt Boise/CSU into the pacific div

You are talking about the MWC teams in that group paying 34 million to join that league, and the AAC schools paying probably 20+ million to join it. What kind of TV deal do you actually expect that league could pull? I think the absolute ceiling would be maybe Apple would offer that 15 million all streaming, and reality would be more like something that resembles the original AAC deal when it was signed. Honestly I don't even know if that conference is better than the 12 team AAC at the time they signed the deal at a much better time to be signing TV deals.

I was proposing that the MWC schools pay their $17M fee for 2 years notice, with the AAC schools paying the ~18M for the same notice that other schools have given.

Also perception is important. Is the original AAC better than my proposed PAC? Maybe. But Stanford/Cal/OSU/WSU are all perceived to be much higher than ECU/USF/Temple/UConn/Tulsa etc. I think they could swing a deal that would be better than what either the MWC or AAC makes now with their current cache.

Who in today's TV landscape is paying any hybrid bastard combination you can throw together even north of 10 million? This reminds me when those of us who joined the AAC in the early 10's thinking we were going to get some good TV deal with the leftovers of USF/UCONN/Cincy and a bunch of schools from a league that was making a little over 1 million at the time and ended up with a deal that paid a little over 2 million. This I would actually argue is stupider, because at least maybe you could have attempted to argue that was the "cream" of C-USA from a TV perspective joining the BE leftovers, while this would be adding the AAC leftovers that Aresco had to do a really good job to keep the TV deal thinking that they plus the top of a league that's earning 4 million plus the bottom of a league that's best offer was 20 million all streaming are going to math their way into something that pays drastically more than the current AAC deal in a much worse market for TV deals. I think that league would be lucky to get a 10 million all streaming deal from Apple.

(08-04-2023 07:58 AM)b0ndsj0ns Wrote:  Who in today's TV landscape is paying any hybrid bastard combination you can throw together even north of 10 million? This reminds me when those of us who joined the AAC in the early 10's thinking we were going to get some good TV deal with the leftovers of USF/UCONN/Cincy and a bunch of schools from a league that was making a little over 1 million at the time and ended up with a deal that paid a little over 2 million. This I would actually argue is stupider, because at least maybe you could have attempted to argue that was the "cream" of C-USA from a TV perspective joining the BE leftovers, while this would be adding the AAC leftovers that Aresco had to do a really good job to keep the TV deal thinking that they plus the top of a league that's earning 4 million plus the bottom of a league that's best offer was 20 million all streaming are going to math their way into something that pays drastically more than the current AAC deal in a much worse market for TV deals. I think that league would be lucky to get a 10 million all streaming deal from Apple.

I sense some uneasiness and nervousness from you post. I get it, it sucks being in a conference where everything could go down the toilet in a minute. Unfortunately, this is something ECU is going to have to deal with for a while yet. The AAC could come out of this the same or worse. It certainly isn't going to come out better.

You all just hang on, I'm sure that ACC invite will be forthcoming after most of that conference is gutted as well.

A conference of this what we probably end up seeing.

OSU
WSU
Cal
Stanford
SDSU
UNLV
Air Force
Colorado State
Hawaii / Gonzaga (or UC Davis olympics)
New Mexico
SMU
Rice
Tulane
USF
Memphis


That's 15. Take away one or add another. That league would still survive, be good enough at the big sports to get attention, and probably qualify for CFB playoffs. Add Boise State to that and I bet it still gets $20 million.

(08-04-2023 07:53 AM)Blue_Trombone Wrote:  

(08-04-2023 07:24 AM)b0ndsj0ns Wrote:  

(08-04-2023 06:22 AM)Blue_Trombone Wrote:  If it's just those four left, I think you try and pull together a 'best of the rest' conference.

Pacific Division
Stanford
Cal
Oregon State
Washington State
SDSU

Eastern Division
SMU
Tulane
Memphis
Colorado State
Boise State

Gets you back to 10, and divisions limit the amount of contact (in football) the legacy PAC schools have with the newbies.

You could also try and add Rice and USF if you really wanted to and punt Boise/CSU into the pacific div

You are talking about the MWC teams in that group paying 34 million to join that league, and the AAC schools paying probably 20+ million to join it. What kind of TV deal do you actually expect that league could pull? I think the absolute ceiling would be maybe Apple would offer that 15 million all streaming, and reality would be more like something that resembles the original AAC deal when it was signed. Honestly I don't even know if that conference is better than the 12 team AAC at the time they signed the deal at a much better time to be signing TV deals.

I was proposing that the MWC schools pay their $17M fee for 2 years notice, with the AAC schools paying the ~18M for the same notice that other schools have given.

Also perception is important. Is the original AAC better than my proposed PAC? Maybe. But Stanford/Cal/OSU/WSU are all perceived to be much higher than ECU/USF/Temple/UConn/Tulsa etc. I think they could swing a deal that would be better than what either the MWC or AAC makes now with their current cache.

It would actually be shorter notice. No one has ever left the AAC under 1 years notice, which is what it would take to be in for 2024. The 17-18 million we've seen has been for over a year. To leave with like 8-10 months notice probably raises it over 20 million, but who actually knows that's completely unchartered territory let's even just say the AAC is nice and lets it be 18. We are talking about the middle tier of a league that got a 7 million TV deal, the top tier of a league with a 4 million deal, and the crumbs of a league that got a 20 million all streaming offer. You combine all that together in a bad TV landscape with a bunch of partners who have shown they didn't even want to pay money to the best version of the PAC and it's a recipe for a deal that would be lucky to exceed the current AAC TV deal. Legit I would not want ECU to take that offer if somehow it were actually extended. With what the C-USA exit fees were at the time we left to join the Big East/AAC sure I'd say just gamble and when you end up with the obvious deal that barely exceeds what you left it's no real harm. To pay that plus the insane travel costs you'd need a deal of like minimum 20 million to have a reasonable ROI, and we just saw 20 million was the best the PAC could do after a year of trying.

I believe you're missing that I don't expect these schools to be in the PAC in 2024. I'm planning on them being in 2025. Which gives the PAC one wonky year, but they can survive one wonky year.

(08-04-2023 08:10 AM)Yosef Himself Wrote:  A conference of this what we probably end up seeing.

OSU
WSU
Cal
Stanford
SDSU
UNLV
Air Force
Colorado State
Hawaii / Gonzaga (or UC Davis olympics)
New Mexico
SMU
Rice
Tulane
USF
Memphis


That's 15. Take away one or add another. That league would still survive, be good enough at the big sports to get attention, and probably qualify for CFB playoffs. Add Boise State to that and I bet it still gets $20 million.

LOL that's a joke right? A league with UW, UO, Arizona, ASU, Utah, plus those 4 leftovers and the assumption of SDSU just got a best offer of 20 million. It's routinely mocked on this board that the AAC schools you are trying to throw into that league aren't even worth the 7 million we get now. For that gaggle of WTF to get 20 million you'd have to seriously believe the AAC has been getting massively underpaid for years.