(08-05-2023 05:54 AM)MUsince96 Wrote:  

(08-04-2023 06:12 PM)chiefsfan Wrote:  ECU isn't moving for the Sun Belt unless the PAC 12 somehow manages to survive and guts the AAC to the point that ESPN dumps the value of the AAC's TV Contract. Right now Pirates are getting the original AAC TV Share and the CUSA add ons are getting significantly less.

Pirates could probably rationalize Sun Belt to alums better than anyone else in the AAC could, but there'd have to be a lot of things happen, including ESPN jumping in and increasing our own TV share. Something I'm not seeing right now.

Does that mean the above scenarios are impossible? No. Nothing is impossible in the world of conference realignment. Its just unlikely in the short term.

Even with the AAC TV deal tanking , ECU would be walking away from a ton of exit fee money wouldn't they? I can't see that happening.

Marshall, ODU, and USM didn’t stay in C-USA with the hyphen to collect exit fees.

(08-05-2023 03:11 PM)SkullyMaroo Wrote:  

(08-05-2023 05:54 AM)MUsince96 Wrote:  

(08-04-2023 06:12 PM)chiefsfan Wrote:  ECU isn't moving for the Sun Belt unless the PAC 12 somehow manages to survive and guts the AAC to the point that ESPN dumps the value of the AAC's TV Contract. Right now Pirates are getting the original AAC TV Share and the CUSA add ons are getting significantly less.

Pirates could probably rationalize Sun Belt to alums better than anyone else in the AAC could, but there'd have to be a lot of things happen, including ESPN jumping in and increasing our own TV share. Something I'm not seeing right now.

Does that mean the above scenarios are impossible? No. Nothing is impossible in the world of conference realignment. Its just unlikely in the short term.

Even with the AAC TV deal tanking , ECU would be walking away from a ton of exit fee money wouldn't they? I can't see that happening.

Marshall, ODU, and USM didn’t stay in C-USA with the hyphen to collect exit fees.

I don't think CUSA had an exit fee officially, just a required 12 month waiting period. Someone from ODU, Marshall, USM can correct me if I'm wrong here.

(08-05-2023 03:30 PM)chiefsfan Wrote:  

(08-05-2023 03:11 PM)SkullyMaroo Wrote:  

(08-05-2023 05:54 AM)MUsince96 Wrote:  

(08-04-2023 06:12 PM)chiefsfan Wrote:  ECU isn't moving for the Sun Belt unless the PAC 12 somehow manages to survive and guts the AAC to the point that ESPN dumps the value of the AAC's TV Contract. Right now Pirates are getting the original AAC TV Share and the CUSA add ons are getting significantly less.

Pirates could probably rationalize Sun Belt to alums better than anyone else in the AAC could, but there'd have to be a lot of things happen, including ESPN jumping in and increasing our own TV share. Something I'm not seeing right now.

Does that mean the above scenarios are impossible? No. Nothing is impossible in the world of conference realignment. Its just unlikely in the short term.

Even with the AAC TV deal tanking , ECU would be walking away from a ton of exit fee money wouldn't they? I can't see that happening.

Marshall, ODU, and USM didn’t stay in C-USA with the hyphen to collect exit fees.

I don't think CUSA had an exit fee officially, just a required 12 month waiting period. Someone from ODU, Marshall, USM can correct me if I'm wrong here.

The exit fee was withholding two years of media revenue. So no money paid from the schools, but basically stopping the faucet from paying out. ODU, USM, and Marshall I believe also paid ~$1-1.5M (if I'm remembering correctly) to leave early.

(08-05-2023 03:11 PM)SkullyMaroo Wrote:  

(08-05-2023 05:54 AM)MUsince96 Wrote:  

(08-04-2023 06:12 PM)chiefsfan Wrote:  ECU isn't moving for the Sun Belt unless the PAC 12 somehow manages to survive and guts the AAC to the point that ESPN dumps the value of the AAC's TV Contract. Right now Pirates are getting the original AAC TV Share and the CUSA add ons are getting significantly less.

Pirates could probably rationalize Sun Belt to alums better than anyone else in the AAC could, but there'd have to be a lot of things happen, including ESPN jumping in and increasing our own TV share. Something I'm not seeing right now.

Does that mean the above scenarios are impossible? No. Nothing is impossible in the world of conference realignment. Its just unlikely in the short term.

Even with the AAC TV deal tanking , ECU would be walking away from a ton of exit fee money wouldn't they? I can't see that happening.

Marshall, ODU, and USM didn’t stay in C-USA with the hyphen to collect exit fees.

Because C-USA was a joke conference with no exit fees to collect.

(08-04-2023 01:40 PM)b0ndsj0ns Wrote:  

(08-04-2023 01:25 PM)rileylives Wrote:  I don't think he's coming off as arrogant, and it's been a pretty civil discourse. I just think this is very similar to how I was initially incorrect with my assessment of joining the Sun Belt

At first I was taken aback with the idea, then overtime it really sunk in that this was not only by far the best option, but it wasn't even close to debate which would be better for Marshall specifically. The Sun Belt has been a very good home for us. I see it as being a very nice fit for East Carolina as well. Too many natural rivals in the Sun Belt East from get go.

If we had gotten stuck in C-USA like it looked like we were going to be for a while I'm sure we would have also moved to the Sun-Belt, and I'm sure I'd have been in favor of it vs the idea of staying in the C-USA. If ECU were in C-USA and the choices were partial share in the AAC vs full share in the Sun-Belt I honestly do think that would be a tough choice and it wouldn't have stunned me if ECU would have picked the Sun-Belt over the AAC. That's not the choice though. No matter how much anyone thinks it makes sense for ECU to be in the SBC it has to make cents, there would have to be some sort of viable path to a positive ROI, and even if the AAC got raided to the point where they had a $0 TV deal the share of the exit fees plus the cost of paying the exit fee ensure there never could be a positive ROI on that move. It is what it is, the AAC exit fee was extremely well designed, it's not going to ever stop anyone from moving to an actual power conference with an actual power payout (20 million a year or more), but it's more than enough to keep it from being raided by other G5's and ensures that when it gets raided periodically that the left behinds can stay relatively whole financially for a while.

So as we've said several times, if the AAC contract drops to reasonably close to SB level, you can look to the savings from the travel for all the teams going across God's green earth vs just down the interstates...

(08-04-2023 02:15 PM)Flat Tire 2 Wrote:  

(08-04-2023 12:43 PM)rileylives Wrote:  

(08-04-2023 12:32 PM)b0ndsj0ns Wrote:  

(08-04-2023 12:25 PM)rileylives Wrote:  

(08-04-2023 12:16 PM)b0ndsj0ns Wrote:  ECU's not really a "natural fit" with anyone, hence the decades of frustration. There's not a league full of football first universities in college towns with large enrollments who draw in the 30-50k range consistently. What exists right now is a league with a large number of large enrollment city schools who have 1 or 2 who can draw in the 30k range while the rest draw low 20's and in some cases much worse. Other league is full of mostly lower enrollment regional universities in college towns, 1 of which draws over 30k, rest draw in the low to mid 20's and in some cases also much lower. I'd love to have ECU in a league with 9 App State equivalents, the second that becomes an option you won't have a bigger cheerleader than me for ECU to be a part of that. So best of luck hopefully the Sun-Belt becomes a league with the majority drawing over 30k a game, not wishing against it.

I don't think you've been looking, but App consistently draws 35,000 and Marshall gets there easily when compelling programs come into town. So to say the Sun Belt does not provide this is just wrong.

https://appstatesports.com/news/2022/9/3...h-unc.aspx

App for over 40,000 for their UNC matchup last year.

You named 2, and only 1 of them is actually drawing over 30k consistently right now. When was the last time Marshall averaged that for a season?

Marshall classically suffers from three major factors that are unique to our area that East Carolina does not have to suffer through.

First is the weather. Temperatures drop dramatically out here in November and that severely suffers the attendance.

Second, CUSA 3.0 sucked the ever-loving life out of the fan base. We went from playing East Carolina UCF and Southern Miss on the regular to playing programs that struggled to bring even 500 of the opposing fan base. Oddly enough, the AAC invited many of those same lackluster fan bases into your new league.

Third, we struggle mightily gaining those all important home P5 games. There is a long history of P5 programs backing out on their end of the deal right before coming to Huntington, which the home average attendance thusly suffers dramatically.

Help me with the P5 teams that backed out of playing Marshall. The TCU series was cancelled because of 9/11 and Navy bought out a home game at MU to play Notre Dame in Ireland. MU backed out of contracted home games with Miami and Tennessee for cash payouts. I am not sure if we suppose to have a return game with Pitt?

Was it the Boise home game, or did that just get pushed way back?

(08-05-2023 05:14 PM)b0ndsj0ns Wrote:  

(08-05-2023 03:11 PM)SkullyMaroo Wrote:  

(08-05-2023 05:54 AM)MUsince96 Wrote:  

(08-04-2023 06:12 PM)chiefsfan Wrote:  ECU isn't moving for the Sun Belt unless the PAC 12 somehow manages to survive and guts the AAC to the point that ESPN dumps the value of the AAC's TV Contract. Right now Pirates are getting the original AAC TV Share and the CUSA add ons are getting significantly less.

Pirates could probably rationalize Sun Belt to alums better than anyone else in the AAC could, but there'd have to be a lot of things happen, including ESPN jumping in and increasing our own TV share. Something I'm not seeing right now.

Does that mean the above scenarios are impossible? No. Nothing is impossible in the world of conference realignment. Its just unlikely in the short term.

Even with the AAC TV deal tanking , ECU would be walking away from a ton of exit fee money wouldn't they? I can't see that happening.

Marshall, ODU, and USM didn’t stay in C-USA with the hyphen to collect exit fees.

Because C-USA was a joke conference with no exit fees to collect.

That ECU literally begged their way into in 1997, then immediately began spoiling to get into the Big East. ECU is never happy, and nothing bad that happens to them is their fault.

Too bad Idaho went back to the FCS, Wazzu could have had the opportunity to get in a conference with a cross town rival and battle it out in the Kibbie Dome like old times.

(08-05-2023 06:56 AM)Flat Tire 2 Wrote:  

(08-04-2023 03:32 PM)KRT8871 Wrote:  

(08-04-2023 02:34 PM)rileylives Wrote:  

(08-04-2023 02:15 PM)Flat Tire 2 Wrote:  

(08-04-2023 12:43 PM)rileylives Wrote:  Marshall classically suffers from three major factors that are unique to our area that East Carolina does not have to suffer through.

First is the weather. Temperatures drop dramatically out here in November and that severely suffers the attendance.

Second, CUSA 3.0 sucked the ever-loving life out of the fan base. We went from playing East Carolina UCF and Southern Miss on the regular to playing programs that struggled to bring even 500 of the opposing fan base. Oddly enough, the AAC invited many of those same lackluster fan bases into your new league.

Third, we struggle mightily gaining those all important home P5 games. There is a long history of P5 programs backing out on their end of the deal right before coming to Huntington, which the home average attendance thusly suffers dramatically.

Help me with the P5 teams that backed out of playing Marshall. The TCU series was cancelled because of 9/11 and Navy bought out a home game at MU to play Notre Dame in Ireland. MU backed out of contracted home games with Miami and Tennessee for cash payouts. I am not sure if we suppose to have a return game with Pitt?

Louisville as well.

Absolute horrible timing for that one. It was scheduled for 2014 when Marshall had it's best team in a decade but suffered from one of the worst strength of schedules in the nation because of the brand new C-USA 3.0. Instead it got pushed back to 2016 when Louisville had Lamar Jackson and Marshall had one of the worst teams in the country.

Louisville didn't really back out though, there was a scheduling conflict from joining the ACC.

Agreed, Louisville just asked us to reschedule the game and didn't cancel it and came to Huntington. We have a history with UL in football when we were both Independents in college football. We played several games against them in that era.

We've played Louisville 29 times over the years. We've won 4 out of the last 5 match-ups against them.

(08-04-2023 05:38 PM)b0ndsj0ns Wrote:  

(08-04-2023 03:49 PM)Duke Dawg Wrote:  

(08-04-2023 03:45 PM)b0ndsj0ns Wrote:  

(08-04-2023 03:41 PM)Duke Dawg Wrote:  

(08-04-2023 01:26 PM)b0ndsj0ns Wrote:  You think ECU fans don't remember that? It's why there were banners being flown to fire the AD and eventually what lead to pretty much every single admin related to the Mo debacle being fired. It's also the reason we hired the coach who put us through arguably the most embarrassing performance in ECU history at that point (only to be well surpassed by losing to A&T the next year).

Yep, I remember those days. We got you in that game but I know any future matchups would be very competitive.

I have huge respect for ECU’s program, it’s why I want them in the Sun belt. I have long said on these boards when JMU was in FCS that ECU is the most comparable program for us. When we expand our stadium, we will be able to draw 40,000 to games like you do.

ECU be a tremendous asset to the league, but i also think it would benefit ECU. Again, all tv money being equal.

I honestly think that is the only item holding you back from strongly considering making that move. $7m vs $2m is a large gap for G5 programs. But I don’t think that gap will be there in the future. I see ESPN equaling out the payouts at some point. And when that happens, the SB will be a better fit for ECU.

Even if there were no gap the exit fee still exists and it's a massive amount of money.

Exit fees are often tied to the tv contracts.

Just like what’s going on with the pac, moves take place during new contract negotiations. If ECU doesn’t like what it’s seeing in new contracts, they can leave when the current one expires and pay no exit fee.

It’s exactly the reason all the PAC schools are leaving now. Contract is done after 2023-24 season and no new one has been agreed and signed. They are all free agents starting in 2024 basically.

They aren’t. They are in the conference bylaws. Same fees all the now ACC and B12 teams paid when the Big East had no TV deal.

b0nds, you’ve gone on and on about exit fees, not wanting to pay them but the school wanting to collect them in post after post. Good on ya for staying consistent and never backing down.

But (and I’d really like you to answer each question thoughtfully)…

1) what good is a pile of cash if you’re living in a burned down house?, and

2) You’re obviously approaching this from a “what will the administration do?” standpoint…but what do fans want? Bring us into the pulse of overall Pirate fanbase right now.

(08-07-2023 02:22 AM)Herdfan1 Wrote:  

(08-04-2023 01:40 PM)b0ndsj0ns Wrote:  

(08-04-2023 01:25 PM)rileylives Wrote:  I don't think he's coming off as arrogant, and it's been a pretty civil discourse. I just think this is very similar to how I was initially incorrect with my assessment of joining the Sun Belt

At first I was taken aback with the idea, then overtime it really sunk in that this was not only by far the best option, but it wasn't even close to debate which would be better for Marshall specifically. The Sun Belt has been a very good home for us. I see it as being a very nice fit for East Carolina as well. Too many natural rivals in the Sun Belt East from get go.

If we had gotten stuck in C-USA like it looked like we were going to be for a while I'm sure we would have also moved to the Sun-Belt, and I'm sure I'd have been in favor of it vs the idea of staying in the C-USA. If ECU were in C-USA and the choices were partial share in the AAC vs full share in the Sun-Belt I honestly do think that would be a tough choice and it wouldn't have stunned me if ECU would have picked the Sun-Belt over the AAC. That's not the choice though. No matter how much anyone thinks it makes sense for ECU to be in the SBC it has to make cents, there would have to be some sort of viable path to a positive ROI, and even if the AAC got raided to the point where they had a $0 TV deal the share of the exit fees plus the cost of paying the exit fee ensure there never could be a positive ROI on that move. It is what it is, the AAC exit fee was extremely well designed, it's not going to ever stop anyone from moving to an actual power conference with an actual power payout (20 million a year or more), but it's more than enough to keep it from being raided by other G5's and ensures that when it gets raided periodically that the left behinds can stay relatively whole financially for a while.

So as we've said several times, if the AAC contract drops to reasonably close to SB level, you can look to the savings from the travel for all the teams going across God's green earth vs just down the interstates...

https://knightnewhousedata.org/fbs/aac/e...university

ECU currently pays 6.5 million in game day and travel expenses as of last year. I think that will likely drop with the addition of Charlotte to the league, but it's not going to drastically go up.

Coastal last year paid 5.21 million in game day and travel expenses.

https://knightnewhousedata.org/fbs/sunbe...university

App paid 4.5 million.

https://knightnewhousedata.org/fbs/sunbe...university

ODU paid 5.7 million.

https://knightnewhousedata.org/fbs/c-usa...university

If you were talking about cutting that number in half for ECU then yes maybe if the TV deals were cut to dead even you could make an argument that ECU could eventually get an ROI on the exit fee in a reasonable time frame. However, it's not a massive difference between the gameday and travel between ECU now and the 3 closest Sun-Belt schools. The travel savings has always been massively overblown. Once you get on a plane you are on a plane, and it's probably cheaper and easier I'm guessing to fly a team to Dallas than it is to Troy if you are flying commercial.

(08-07-2023 08:18 AM)APPdiesel Wrote:  

(08-04-2023 05:38 PM)b0ndsj0ns Wrote:  

(08-04-2023 03:49 PM)Duke Dawg Wrote:  

(08-04-2023 03:45 PM)b0ndsj0ns Wrote:  

(08-04-2023 03:41 PM)Duke Dawg Wrote:  Yep, I remember those days. We got you in that game but I know any future matchups would be very competitive.

I have huge respect for ECU’s program, it’s why I want them in the Sun belt. I have long said on these boards when JMU was in FCS that ECU is the most comparable program for us. When we expand our stadium, we will be able to draw 40,000 to games like you do.

ECU be a tremendous asset to the league, but i also think it would benefit ECU. Again, all tv money being equal.

I honestly think that is the only item holding you back from strongly considering making that move. $7m vs $2m is a large gap for G5 programs. But I don’t think that gap will be there in the future. I see ESPN equaling out the payouts at some point. And when that happens, the SB will be a better fit for ECU.

Even if there were no gap the exit fee still exists and it's a massive amount of money.

Exit fees are often tied to the tv contracts.

Just like what’s going on with the pac, moves take place during new contract negotiations. If ECU doesn’t like what it’s seeing in new contracts, they can leave when the current one expires and pay no exit fee.

It’s exactly the reason all the PAC schools are leaving now. Contract is done after 2023-24 season and no new one has been agreed and signed. They are all free agents starting in 2024 basically.

They aren’t. They are in the conference bylaws. Same fees all the now ACC and B12 teams paid when the Big East had no TV deal.

b0nds, you’ve gone on and on about exit fees, not wanting to pay them but the school wanting to collect them in post after post. Good on ya for staying consistent and never backing down.

But (and I’d really like you to answer each question thoughtfully)…

1) what good is a pile of cash if you’re living in a burned down house?, and

2) You’re obviously approaching this from a “what will the administration do?” standpoint…but what do fans want? Bring us into the pulse of overall Pirate fanbase right now.

There's no way to answer these questions with the honest opinions of ECU fans without sounding like a douche. I'll try though.

1) The average ECU fan finds both leagues to be completely unappealing aside from 1 or 2 teams in each grouping. Don't feel bad though they felt the same way about AAC 1.0, C-USA 2.0, and C-USA 1.0 so that just is what it is.

2) What do fans want? They want things that aren't realistic at the moment. Once you get down to only talking about the realistic choices I'd say there's maybe 20-30% of the online fan base that thinks if you could throw out the economics that the Sun-Belt is a better fit, but even that group isn't clamoring for it. I think most ECU fans would get excited if ECU-App was an annual game, there's no one agnostic about it they are either passionately for or passionately against playing App but either way they are fired up about it which means it matters. The rest of the Sun-Belt members, really not discussed in any way.