From today's Pac-12 update:

"Utah and Colorado joined the Pac-12 on the same day, July 1, 2011. By all accounts, the Utes are committed to a future in the conference despite the protracted media rights negotiations that have frustrated fans and campus officials alike.

But Colorado’s status isn’t as clear in the public sphere, with speculation swirling that the university could depart for the Big 12 as early as this week — a move that some believe would trigger an exodus and decimate the century-old league.

Would the Buffaloes leave for the Big 12 even if the annual broadcast revenue from ESPN and Fox ($31.7 million per school per year) is comparable to what they stand to earn in the Pac-12?"

- - - - - -

Wilner goes on to suggest that CU as an institution is torn between remaining in the Pac-10 with its West Coast base or leaving for familiar ground in the Texas-centric Big XII. Seems like a telling shift from Wilner, who along with Calzone and Mandel has been steadfastly skeptical that any Pac-12 schools would (paraphrasing here) lower themselves to join a ragamuffin Big XII.

A couple other takeaways:

1. Wilner is still rolling with the idea that Kliavkoff is gonna get close to matching Yormark's $31.7M pet year media deal. Seems that like that ship has sailed, but I guess we'll find out some day, right?

2. Wilner's go-to belief has been that the Big XII could only poach a Pac-10 member if a president "panics" and takes his school to the Big XII prior to seeing Kliavkoff's best offer (whenever that may arrive). But Wilner didn't mention the word panic once in this story.

3. How would a Colorado departure after this coming school year be impacted by San Diego State re-upping with the MWC through the 2024-25 season. Gotta think that escape hatch would be pretty tight this time around?

... and by damage control in the thread title, this sure reads like an article designed to let the air out of the balloon in case Colorado confirms it's returning to the Big XII.

Something we might expect from a reporter who has carried the Pac-12's water since Day One

(07-25-2023 05:59 PM)PeteTheChop Wrote:  ... and by damage control in the thread title, this sure reads like an article designed to let the air out of the balloon in case Colorado confirms it's returning to the Big XII.

Something we might expect from a reporter who has carried the Pac-12's water since Day One

While I still think it unlikely that Colorado joins the Big 12 alone, the one thing Wilner and others are not saying is that Texas is a hot bed of recruits and with Los Angeles in Big 10 hands Southern California, already suffering population decline, is no longer a certain source for Colorado recruits. If the Buffs had joined the Big 10 with USC and UCLA, then this issue would not be as palpable. The risk of their return to the Big 12 has been Texas recruiting. Colorado weighs academic associations with a shaky PAC 12 vs the access to athletes in Texas. The outcome of that comparison is by far anything but certain. The PAC cannot soldier on by losing AAU flagship schools and replacing them with G5s. Lose Denver and they lose another key market. Lose Denver and Phoenix and that PAC 12 reach is likely clipped beyond recovery. Then you'll see every man for himself at absolutely the worst possible time. That time being the drawback at ESPN, the uncertainty over expansion by the Big 10, and the SEC's desire to stay regional. If ESPN were healthy and flush, I could see a grab for time zone slots or market expansion. But they are weak because the new game is apparently going to be about actual viewership. The four corners are among the weakest in viewership among PAC 12 members. In that milieu perhaps the Big 12 is the appropriate fit by payout range. The problem is where do the higher value schools of the PAC go if the Big 10 isn't open for business?

Yup, Wilner is trying to isolate CU and say no need to worry about Arizona if Colorado goes.

Evidence is mounting that the media deal options are not very good. Mr. "the odds are not changing" is preparing to make a U-turn. He will claim that this does not contradict what he has said before. Wilner is a good reporter, but I think he takes this personally and has been trying to shape the news.

(07-25-2023 06:25 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  Yup, Wilner is trying to isolate CU and say no need to worry about Arizona if Colorado goes.

Evidence is mounting that the media deal options are not very good. Mr. "the odds are not changing" is preparing to make a U-turn. He will claim that this does not contradict what he has said before. Wilner is a good reporter, but I think he takes this personally and has been trying to shape the news.

Wilner's M.O. has been 90 percent dismissive of Pac-10 schools leaving for the Big XII/Kliavkoff not landing an acceptable media deal with a 10 percent CYA addendum allowing for the possibility of bad things happening.

We can bet he'll be leaning hard on that 10% as opposed to offering up massive mea culpa if/when the Pac is torn to shreds

(07-25-2023 06:36 PM)PeteTheChop Wrote:  

(07-25-2023 06:25 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  Yup, Wilner is trying to isolate CU and say no need to worry about Arizona if Colorado goes.

Evidence is mounting that the media deal options are not very good. Mr. "the odds are not changing" is preparing to make a U-turn. He will claim that this does not contradict what he has said before. Wilner is a good reporter, but I think he takes this personally and has been trying to shape the news.

Wilner's M.O. has been 90 percent dismissive of Pac-10 schools leaving for the Big XII/Kliavkoff not landing an acceptable media deal with a 10 percent CYA addendum allowing for the possibility of bad things happening.

We can bet he'll be leaning hard on that 10% as opposed to offering up massive mea culpa if/when the Pac is torn to shreds

Pete there is another angle which could be worked. Let's say Colorado and one of the Arizona's moves to the Big 12. That's 2 of the lower 6 valued schools from the old PAC 12. With USC and UCLA two of the top 5 off the table, you have 8 schools remaining. If Oregon, Washington, California and Stanford got antsy they could toss in with the ACC at pro rata that's a slight raise over what they drew last year. Even if they had to lock in until 2036 that's only about 4 years longer than a new PAC contract would likely require. At that point Oregon State, Washington State, Utah and the other Arizona school start looking to the Big 12.

Now the corporate politics behind that could be a Disney Apple Deal. Apple winds up buying or buying into ESPN. Through ESPN they control all of the ACC and SEC, and own 50% of the Big 12's rights. That's a tremendous amount of leverage for them or for the partnership if that is what they desire. It locks FOX out of value moves and places a hold on most college realignment at echelons that involve the P5 and the top grade G5 schools. And it gives Apple/ESPN access to 3/4's of the P content.

Boom! We have a new paradigm, especially in time for the expanded CFP.

(07-25-2023 06:12 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(07-25-2023 05:59 PM)PeteTheChop Wrote:  ... and by damage control in the thread title, this sure reads like an article designed to let the air out of the balloon in case Colorado confirms it's returning to the Big XII.

Something we might expect from a reporter who has carried the Pac-12's water since Day One

While I still think it unlikely that Colorado joins the Big 12 alone, the one thing Wilner and others are not saying is that Texas is a hot bed of recruits and with Los Angeles in Big 10 hands Southern California, already suffering population decline, is no longer a certain source for Colorado recruits. If the Buffs had joined the Big 10 with USC and UCLA, then this issue would not be as palpable. The risk of their return to the Big 12 has been Texas recruiting. Colorado weighs academic associations with a shaky PAC 12 vs the access to athletes in Texas. The outcome of that comparison is by far anything but certain. The PAC cannot soldier on by losing AAU flagship schools and replacing them with G5s. Lose Denver and they lose another key market. Lose Denver and Phoenix and that PAC 12 reach is likely clipped beyond recovery. Then you'll see every man for himself at absolutely the worst possible time. That time being the drawback at ESPN, the uncertainty over expansion by the Big 10, and the SEC's desire to stay regional. If ESPN were healthy and flush, I could see a grab for time zone slots or market expansion. But they are weak because the new game is apparently going to be about actual viewership. The four corners are among the weakest in viewership among PAC 12 members. In that milieu perhaps the Big 12 is the appropriate fit by payout range. The problem is where do the higher value schools of the PAC go if the Big 10 isn't open for business?

Southern California is not really suffering big time. Last I saw it was growing while the bay area is slowly losing population. San Diego is growing, and the valley is growing as more homes are being put up everywhere.

(07-25-2023 06:49 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(07-25-2023 06:36 PM)PeteTheChop Wrote:  

(07-25-2023 06:25 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  Yup, Wilner is trying to isolate CU and say no need to worry about Arizona if Colorado goes.

Evidence is mounting that the media deal options are not very good. Mr. "the odds are not changing" is preparing to make a U-turn. He will claim that this does not contradict what he has said before. Wilner is a good reporter, but I think he takes this personally and has been trying to shape the news.

Wilner's M.O. has been 90 percent dismissive of Pac-10 schools leaving for the Big XII/Kliavkoff not landing an acceptable media deal with a 10 percent CYA addendum allowing for the possibility of bad things happening.

We can bet he'll be leaning hard on that 10% as opposed to offering up massive mea culpa if/when the Pac is torn to shreds

Pete there is another angle which could be worked. Let's say Colorado and one of the Arizona's move to the Big 12. That's 2 of the lower 6 valued schools from the old PAC 12. With USC and USCL two of the top 5 off the table, you have 8 schools remaining. If Oregon, Washington, California and Stanford got antsy they could toss in with the ACC. At pro rata that's a slight raise over what they drew last year. Even if they had to lock in until 2036 that's only about 4 years longer than a new PAC contract would likely require. At that point Oregon State, Washington State, Utah and the other Arizona school start looking to the Big 12.

Now the corporate politics behind that could be a Disney Apple Deal. Apple winds up buying or buying into ESPN. Through ESPN they control all of the ACC and SEC, and own 50% of the Big 12's rights. That's a tremendous amount of leverage for them or for the partnership if that is what they desire. It locks FOX out of value moves and places a hold on most college realignment at echelons that involve the P5 and the top grade G5 schools. And it gives Apple/ESPN access to 3/4's of the P content.

Boom! We have a new paradigm, especially in time for the expanded CFP.

Now can you create the scenario where the ACC soon collapses and Miami is free to go to the SEC or B1G?

I’ll talk up the PAC book a bit, but Prime and BYU are not enough to carry the after dark package. That’s why ESPN will still get an after dark PAC game somehow some way. Not every week, but they will bid on those games.

If the Buffs go and no one else, I’d say the Big 12 rides with 13 for a bit with Memphis and USF in the back pocket. The PAC is looking at a 3-4 year deal at this point, since they’d want to get ahead of everyone else’s next contract. Zona will be able to reevaluate then.

I think they’d work some opt out deal after two years, such that even if they are predominantly stream, adding SDSU in ‘26 will get them a bit more juice. Maybe a two year all-in Apple deal and then Tier 2/3 goes to open market in ‘26 and Tier 1 can get some linear options through a partnership. This may be in the best interest of both parties.

(07-25-2023 06:49 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(07-25-2023 06:36 PM)PeteTheChop Wrote:  

(07-25-2023 06:25 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  Yup, Wilner is trying to isolate CU and say no need to worry about Arizona if Colorado goes.

Evidence is mounting that the media deal options are not very good. Mr. "the odds are not changing" is preparing to make a U-turn. He will claim that this does not contradict what he has said before. Wilner is a good reporter, but I think he takes this personally and has been trying to shape the news.

Wilner's M.O. has been 90 percent dismissive of Pac-10 schools leaving for the Big XII/Kliavkoff not landing an acceptable media deal with a 10 percent CYA addendum allowing for the possibility of bad things happening.

We can bet he'll be leaning hard on that 10% as opposed to offering up massive mea culpa if/when the Pac is torn to shreds

Pete there is another angle which could be worked. Let's say Colorado and one of the Arizona's move to the Big 12. That's 2 of the lower 6 valued schools from the old PAC 12. With USC and USCL two of the top 5 off the table, you have 8 schools remaining. If Oregon, Washington, California and Stanford got antsy they could toss in with the ACC. At pro rata that's a slight raise over what they drew last year. Even if they had to lock in until 2036 that's only about 4 years longer than a new PAC contract would likely require. At that point Oregon State, Washington State, Utah and the other Arizona school start looking to the Big 12.

Now the corporate politics behind that could be a Disney Apple Deal. Apple winds up buying or buying into ESPN. Through ESPN they control all of the ACC and SEC, and own 50% of the Big 12's rights. That's a tremendous amount of leverage for them or for the partnership if that is what they desire. It locks FOX out of value moves and places a hold on most college realignment at echelons that involve the P5 and the top grade G5 schools. And it gives Apple/ESPN access to 3/4's of the P content.

Boom! We have a new paradigm, especially in time for the expanded CFP.

So let's say this plays out as you suggest and also the Big 10 and SEC eventually get who they want from the ACC. Who's #3?

ACC: SU, BC, Pitt, UL, VT, GT, Duke, UW, OU, Cal, Stanford
vs
Big 12: KU, KSU, ISU, CU, AU, TTech, TCU, BU, UH, UCF, WVU, UC, OSU, BYU

I'd have to say the Big 12 has a pretty significant edge there assuming they stay largely together. The ACC needs to address this reality now. Adding just those 4 may not be enough.

Now if the Big 10 and SEC stay pat. I think the ACC would be #3 by a mile.

(07-25-2023 07:41 PM)krux Wrote:  

(07-25-2023 06:49 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(07-25-2023 06:36 PM)PeteTheChop Wrote:  

(07-25-2023 06:25 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  Yup, Wilner is trying to isolate CU and say no need to worry about Arizona if Colorado goes.

Evidence is mounting that the media deal options are not very good. Mr. "the odds are not changing" is preparing to make a U-turn. He will claim that this does not contradict what he has said before. Wilner is a good reporter, but I think he takes this personally and has been trying to shape the news.

Wilner's M.O. has been 90 percent dismissive of Pac-10 schools leaving for the Big XII/Kliavkoff not landing an acceptable media deal with a 10 percent CYA addendum allowing for the possibility of bad things happening.

We can bet he'll be leaning hard on that 10% as opposed to offering up massive mea culpa if/when the Pac is torn to shreds

Pete there is another angle which could be worked. Let's say Colorado and one of the Arizona's move to the Big 12. That's 2 of the lower 6 valued schools from the old PAC 12. With USC and USCL two of the top 5 off the table, you have 8 schools remaining. If Oregon, Washington, California and Stanford got antsy they could toss in with the ACC. At pro rata that's a slight raise over what they drew last year. Even if they had to lock in until 2036 that's only about 4 years longer than a new PAC contract would likely require. At that point Oregon State, Washington State, Utah and the other Arizona school start looking to the Big 12.

Now the corporate politics behind that could be a Disney Apple Deal. Apple winds up buying or buying into ESPN. Through ESPN they control all of the ACC and SEC, and own 50% of the Big 12's rights. That's a tremendous amount of leverage for them or for the partnership if that is what they desire. It locks FOX out of value moves and places a hold on most college realignment at echelons that involve the P5 and the top grade G5 schools. And it gives Apple/ESPN access to 3/4's of the P content.

Boom! We have a new paradigm, especially in time for the expanded CFP.

So let's say this plays out as you suggest and also the Big 10 and SEC eventually get who they want from the ACC. Who's #3?

ACC: SU, BC, Pitt, UL, VT, GT, Duke, UW, OU, Cal, Stanford
vs
Big 12: KU, KSU, ISU, CU, AU, TTech, TCU, BU, UH, UCF, WVU, UC, OSU, BYU

I'd have to say the Big 12 has a pretty significant edge there assuming they stay largely together. The ACC needs to address this reality now. Adding just those 4 may not be enough.

Now if the Big 10 and SEC stay pat. I think the ACC would be #3 by a mile.

The only edge the Big 12 has right now is geography. If the Big 12 lands the 4 corners I don't see a significant edge going to either the ACC or the Big 12. The result would likely be a Big 16, possibly 18 and an ACC of 16, possibly 18. The Big 10 and SEC would each stand at 18.

If the Big 12 lands more from the PAC 12 than the 4 corners, then maybe the edge swings your way. But if the ACC lands Oregon, Washington, Stanford, and Cal it swings their way. They will have the branding and revenue edge. Then the ACC might be able to pull away T.C.U., Kansas, or another one or two.

The key for the Big 12 now is not to add more G5's, sell recruiting, and pick up 6 to 8 of the PAC schools or even all 10 if you have to do so. Your strength and any advantage reside in that move. If you don't and you add from the G5's you will likely remain branded a P conference for the purposes of any breakaway or playoff / tourney selection, but you would be the clear #4 conference in the new P4.

(07-25-2023 06:49 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(07-25-2023 06:36 PM)PeteTheChop Wrote:  

(07-25-2023 06:25 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  Yup, Wilner is trying to isolate CU and say no need to worry about Arizona if Colorado goes.

Evidence is mounting that the media deal options are not very good. Mr. "the odds are not changing" is preparing to make a U-turn. He will claim that this does not contradict what he has said before. Wilner is a good reporter, but I think he takes this personally and has been trying to shape the news.

Wilner's M.O. has been 90 percent dismissive of Pac-10 schools leaving for the Big XII/Kliavkoff not landing an acceptable media deal with a 10 percent CYA addendum allowing for the possibility of bad things happening.

We can bet he'll be leaning hard on that 10% as opposed to offering up massive mea culpa if/when the Pac is torn to shreds

Pete there is another angle which could be worked. Let's say Colorado and one of the Arizona's move to the Big 12. That's 2 of the lower 6 valued schools from the old PAC 12. With USC and USCL two of the top 5 off the table, you have 8 schools remaining. If Oregon, Washington, California and Stanford got antsy they could toss in with the ACC. At pro rata that's a slight raise over what they drew last year. Even if they had to lock in until 2036 that's only about 4 years longer than a new PAC contract would likely require. At that point Oregon State, Washington State, Utah and the other Arizona school start looking to the Big 12.

Now the corporate politics behind that could be a Disney Apple Deal. Apple winds up buying or buying into ESPN. Through ESPN they control all of the ACC and SEC, and own 50% of the Big 12's rights. That's a tremendous amount of leverage for them or for the partnership if that is what they desire. It locks FOX out of value moves and places a hold on most college realignment at echelons that involve the P5 and the top grade G5 schools. And it gives Apple/ESPN access to 3/4's of the P content.

Boom! We have a new paradigm, especially in time for the expanded CFP.

I just don’t believe Virginia Tech, Louisville, Syracuse, etc care enough about schools like Oregon and Washington to add them to the ACC without a big bump in revenue.

Why eat travel costs to play schools that don’t really resonate with your fanbase?

A national conference can work. But I just don’t see any interest in a coasts-only conference. It’s just not worth it.

(07-25-2023 08:14 PM)Jhawkinva Wrote:  

(07-25-2023 06:49 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(07-25-2023 06:36 PM)PeteTheChop Wrote:  

(07-25-2023 06:25 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  Yup, Wilner is trying to isolate CU and say no need to worry about Arizona if Colorado goes.

Evidence is mounting that the media deal options are not very good. Mr. "the odds are not changing" is preparing to make a U-turn. He will claim that this does not contradict what he has said before. Wilner is a good reporter, but I think he takes this personally and has been trying to shape the news.

Wilner's M.O. has been 90 percent dismissive of Pac-10 schools leaving for the Big XII/Kliavkoff not landing an acceptable media deal with a 10 percent CYA addendum allowing for the possibility of bad things happening.

We can bet he'll be leaning hard on that 10% as opposed to offering up massive mea culpa if/when the Pac is torn to shreds

Pete there is another angle which could be worked. Let's say Colorado and one of the Arizona's move to the Big 12. That's 2 of the lower 6 valued schools from the old PAC 12. With USC and USCL two of the top 5 off the table, you have 8 schools remaining. If Oregon, Washington, California and Stanford got antsy they could toss in with the ACC. At pro rata that's a slight raise over what they drew last year. Even if they had to lock in until 2036 that's only about 4 years longer than a new PAC contract would likely require. At that point Oregon State, Washington State, Utah and the other Arizona school start looking to the Big 12.

Now the corporate politics behind that could be a Disney Apple Deal. Apple winds up buying or buying into ESPN. Through ESPN they control all of the ACC and SEC, and own 50% of the Big 12's rights. That's a tremendous amount of leverage for them or for the partnership if that is what they desire. It locks FOX out of value moves and places a hold on most college realignment at echelons that involve the P5 and the top grade G5 schools. And it gives Apple/ESPN access to 3/4's of the P content.

Boom! We have a new paradigm, especially in time for the expanded CFP.

I just don’t believe Virginia Tech, Louisville, Syracuse, etc care enough about schools like Oregon and Washington to add them to the ACC without a big bump in revenue.

Why eat travel costs to play schools that don’t really resonate with your fanbase?

A national conference can work. But I just don’t see any interest in a coasts-only conference. It’s just not worth it.

Think of it as a tire patch until the GOR in the ACC has been met and a full change can be made. Then how many conferences remain and how they are arranged will be quite different than what we might have now. Such a move would be more about network rights holdings than it is about permanency. The ACC gets a boost with the ACCN, still earns their escalators, and the PAC schools cost ESPN a little less for the 4 than they would have had to lay out for 50% of the PAC contract. FOX and ESPN split the cost of those heading to the Big 12 which is a reduction for both networks.

Then we wait for the ACC GOR to expire, to see which streaming models are working and how well the expanded playoffs are received and how much they generate in additional revenue, and everyone moves forward with better footing and a clearer vision for where things are headed.

I think Louisville would embrace those adds actually. I know it's a weird thing to say but Louisville as a city is positioned ideally for air travel. UPS choose to make it the air hub hq for a reason. I don't think it'd be a big deal at all to send all our teams out west a few extra times a year.

(07-25-2023 06:49 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(07-25-2023 06:36 PM)PeteTheChop Wrote:  

(07-25-2023 06:25 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  Yup, Wilner is trying to isolate CU and say no need to worry about Arizona if Colorado goes.

Evidence is mounting that the media deal options are not very good. Mr. "the odds are not changing" is preparing to make a U-turn. He will claim that this does not contradict what he has said before. Wilner is a good reporter, but I think he takes this personally and has been trying to shape the news.

Wilner's M.O. has been 90 percent dismissive of Pac-10 schools leaving for the Big XII/Kliavkoff not landing an acceptable media deal with a 10 percent CYA addendum allowing for the possibility of bad things happening.

We can bet he'll be leaning hard on that 10% as opposed to offering up massive mea culpa if/when the Pac is torn to shreds

Pete there is another angle which could be worked. Let's say Colorado and one of the Arizona's move to the Big 12. That's 2 of the lower 6 valued schools from the old PAC 12. With USC and USCL two of the top 5 off the table, you have 8 schools remaining. If Oregon, Washington, California and Stanford got antsy they could toss in with the ACC. At pro rata that's a slight raise over what they drew last year. Even if they had to lock in until 2036 that's only about 4 years longer than a new PAC contract would likely require. At that point Oregon State, Washington State, Utah and the other Arizona school start looking to the Big 12.

Now the corporate politics behind that could be a Disney Apple Deal. Apple winds up buying or buying into ESPN. Through ESPN they control all of the ACC and SEC, and own 50% of the Big 12's rights. That's a tremendous amount of leverage for them or for the partnership if that is what they desire. It locks FOX out of value moves and places a hold on most college realignment at echelons that involve the P5 and the top grade G5 schools. And it gives Apple/ESPN access to 3/4's of the P content.

Boom! We have a new paradigm, especially in time for the expanded CFP.

I'm going on record right now saying that I don't think that the ACC will invite a few schools unless it includes ND football or a current or future P2 school (OUT/USCLA). Oregon and Washington by themselves move the needle a bit, maybe a couple million per school, or $3-4m total between the 2 of them, but for a LOT more travel issues. Throw in Cal/Stanford and the financial benefit is gone but there's a lot more crappy travel, total payout per ACC school drops on a net basis. Oh, and the only way to get the Secret 7 on board is to let them leave early, but they also know that UW/UO are also leaving ASAP and they'll be stuck with Cal and Stanford on the worst possible island. There are problems with some big 12 schools, they're a bit different, but the end result is still "not enough money added, especially net of increased travel, to dilute voting shares". I could see a full merger with the big 12, PERHAPS a full merger with the Pac (much lower odds but not impossible with the right assurances from UW/UO), but adding a smaller grouping of teams? Not happening.

(07-25-2023 06:50 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  

(07-25-2023 06:12 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(07-25-2023 05:59 PM)PeteTheChop Wrote:  ... and by damage control in the thread title, this sure reads like an article designed to let the air out of the balloon in case Colorado confirms it's returning to the Big XII.

Something we might expect from a reporter who has carried the Pac-12's water since Day One

While I still think it unlikely that Colorado joins the Big 12 alone, the one thing Wilner and others are not saying is that Texas is a hot bed of recruits and with Los Angeles in Big 10 hands Southern California, already suffering population decline, is no longer a certain source for Colorado recruits. If the Buffs had joined the Big 10 with USC and UCLA, then this issue would not be as palpable. The risk of their return to the Big 12 has been Texas recruiting. Colorado weighs academic associations with a shaky PAC 12 vs the access to athletes in Texas. The outcome of that comparison is by far anything but certain. The PAC cannot soldier on by losing AAU flagship schools and replacing them with G5s. Lose Denver and they lose another key market. Lose Denver and Phoenix and that PAC 12 reach is likely clipped beyond recovery. Then you'll see every man for himself at absolutely the worst possible time. That time being the drawback at ESPN, the uncertainty over expansion by the Big 10, and the SEC's desire to stay regional. If ESPN were healthy and flush, I could see a grab for time zone slots or market expansion. But they are weak because the new game is apparently going to be about actual viewership. The four corners are among the weakest in viewership among PAC 12 members. In that milieu perhaps the Big 12 is the appropriate fit by payout range. The problem is where do the higher value schools of the PAC go if the Big 10 isn't open for business?

Southern California is not really suffering big time. Last I saw it was growing while the bay area is slowly losing population. San Diego is growing, and the valley is growing as more homes are being put up everywhere.

California as a whole went from 39.5m to 39m over the 2 yrs between apr 2020 and jul 2022. They've since gotten ~200k of that 500k loss back. So, not a long term shrinkage, and the state did grow by a respectable 6.13% in the decade from 2010 to 2020, but more "choppy growth, or perhaps an uneven and difficult to forecast future trend". I'll admit that I was surprised to see this, as there are so many things working in Calfornia's favor...perhaps other States are just doing a better job of wooing top businesses and top talent than California is these days (Cough Texas and Florida Cough).

(07-25-2023 10:10 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  

(07-25-2023 06:49 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(07-25-2023 06:36 PM)PeteTheChop Wrote:  

(07-25-2023 06:25 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  Yup, Wilner is trying to isolate CU and say no need to worry about Arizona if Colorado goes.

Evidence is mounting that the media deal options are not very good. Mr. "the odds are not changing" is preparing to make a U-turn. He will claim that this does not contradict what he has said before. Wilner is a good reporter, but I think he takes this personally and has been trying to shape the news.

Wilner's M.O. has been 90 percent dismissive of Pac-10 schools leaving for the Big XII/Kliavkoff not landing an acceptable media deal with a 10 percent CYA addendum allowing for the possibility of bad things happening.

We can bet he'll be leaning hard on that 10% as opposed to offering up massive mea culpa if/when the Pac is torn to shreds

Pete there is another angle which could be worked. Let's say Colorado and one of the Arizona's move to the Big 12. That's 2 of the lower 6 valued schools from the old PAC 12. With USC and USCL two of the top 5 off the table, you have 8 schools remaining. If Oregon, Washington, California and Stanford got antsy they could toss in with the ACC. At pro rata that's a slight raise over what they drew last year. Even if they had to lock in until 2036 that's only about 4 years longer than a new PAC contract would likely require. At that point Oregon State, Washington State, Utah and the other Arizona school start looking to the Big 12.

Now the corporate politics behind that could be a Disney Apple Deal. Apple winds up buying or buying into ESPN. Through ESPN they control all of the ACC and SEC, and own 50% of the Big 12's rights. That's a tremendous amount of leverage for them or for the partnership if that is what they desire. It locks FOX out of value moves and places a hold on most college realignment at echelons that involve the P5 and the top grade G5 schools. And it gives Apple/ESPN access to 3/4's of the P content.

Boom! We have a new paradigm, especially in time for the expanded CFP.

I'm going on record right now saying that I don't think that the ACC will invite a few schools unless it includes ND football or a current or future P2 school (OUT/USCLA). Oregon and Washington by themselves move the needle a bit, maybe a couple million per school, or $3-4m total between the 2 of them, but for a LOT more travel issues. Throw in Cal/Stanford and the financial benefit is gone but there's a lot more crappy travel, total payout per ACC school drops on a net basis. Oh, and the only way to get the Secret 7 on board is to let them leave early, but they also know that UW/UO are also leaving ASAP and they'll be stuck with Cal and Stanford on the worst possible island. There are problems with some big 12 schools, they're a bit different, but the end result is still "not enough money added, especially net of increased travel, to dilute voting shares". I could see a full merger with the big 12, PERHAPS a full merger with the Pac (much lower odds but not impossible with the right assurances from UW/UO), but adding a smaller grouping of teams? Not happening.

Never underestimate the need to survive and keep your pride. Those 4 to the ACC would only be for the duration of the ACC contract. It's a holding pattern which keeps Cal and Stanford from being stuck in truly depleted PAC conference or having to consider merging the Mountain West in with them to survive or having to slum it from their perspective in the Big 12. The ACC offers a port in the storm a mutually beneficial arrangement for what would be about 10 years, and beyond that all bets are off. For the PAC schools keeping and slightly improving upon current payouts is much easier to tolerate than a reduced salary moves to the Big 12, and it would be a reduction of roughly 7 million from the end of their current contracted amount, or a bigger reduced salary to stay as a reduced PAC conference. You would be surprised what can be accomplished when proud entities face desperation. What's that old saying? Necessity is the mother of invention. Well, you can twist it. When faced with a mother of a situation invention is always a necessity. USC and UCLA are locked in until 2032, I think. If that move can be justified, so too can the others. None of them are what I would call natural.

(07-25-2023 10:24 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(07-25-2023 10:10 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  

(07-25-2023 06:49 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(07-25-2023 06:36 PM)PeteTheChop Wrote:  

(07-25-2023 06:25 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  Yup, Wilner is trying to isolate CU and say no need to worry about Arizona if Colorado goes.

Evidence is mounting that the media deal options are not very good. Mr. "the odds are not changing" is preparing to make a U-turn. He will claim that this does not contradict what he has said before. Wilner is a good reporter, but I think he takes this personally and has been trying to shape the news.

Wilner's M.O. has been 90 percent dismissive of Pac-10 schools leaving for the Big XII/Kliavkoff not landing an acceptable media deal with a 10 percent CYA addendum allowing for the possibility of bad things happening.

We can bet he'll be leaning hard on that 10% as opposed to offering up massive mea culpa if/when the Pac is torn to shreds

Pete there is another angle which could be worked. Let's say Colorado and one of the Arizona's move to the Big 12. That's 2 of the lower 6 valued schools from the old PAC 12. With USC and USCL two of the top 5 off the table, you have 8 schools remaining. If Oregon, Washington, California and Stanford got antsy they could toss in with the ACC. At pro rata that's a slight raise over what they drew last year. Even if they had to lock in until 2036 that's only about 4 years longer than a new PAC contract would likely require. At that point Oregon State, Washington State, Utah and the other Arizona school start looking to the Big 12.

Now the corporate politics behind that could be a Disney Apple Deal. Apple winds up buying or buying into ESPN. Through ESPN they control all of the ACC and SEC, and own 50% of the Big 12's rights. That's a tremendous amount of leverage for them or for the partnership if that is what they desire. It locks FOX out of value moves and places a hold on most college realignment at echelons that involve the P5 and the top grade G5 schools. And it gives Apple/ESPN access to 3/4's of the P content.

Boom! We have a new paradigm, especially in time for the expanded CFP.

I'm going on record right now saying that I don't think that the ACC will invite a few schools unless it includes ND football or a current or future P2 school (OUT/USCLA). Oregon and Washington by themselves move the needle a bit, maybe a couple million per school, or $3-4m total between the 2 of them, but for a LOT more travel issues. Throw in Cal/Stanford and the financial benefit is gone but there's a lot more crappy travel, total payout per ACC school drops on a net basis. Oh, and the only way to get the Secret 7 on board is to let them leave early, but they also know that UW/UO are also leaving ASAP and they'll be stuck with Cal and Stanford on the worst possible island. There are problems with some big 12 schools, they're a bit different, but the end result is still "not enough money added, especially net of increased travel, to dilute voting shares". I could see a full merger with the big 12, PERHAPS a full merger with the Pac (much lower odds but not impossible with the right assurances from UW/UO), but adding a smaller grouping of teams? Not happening.

The ACC offers a port in the storm a mutually beneficial arrangement for what would be about 10 years, and beyond that all bets are off. For the PAC schools keeping and slightly improving upon current payouts is much easier to tolerate than a reduced salary moves to the Big 12, and it would be a reduction of roughly 7 million from the end of their current contracted amount, or a bigger reduced salary to stay as a reduced PAC conference.

Can you explain the reduced salary moves to the Big 12? Certainly not reduced compared to PAC, and for Oregon, UW, Stanford, at worst pro rata on Big 12 TV, plus total revenue considerations, 7 million delta to ACC by 2031 sounds high


It will be interesting to see if demographic changes and cord cutting dampen the ACC revenue projections stemming from loss of ACC Network revenue. If it doesn’t, then it’s reasonable to believe the escalators of the 2016 era deal won’t keep up with market rate. Hard to see ACC Net being unimpaired but market rates declining

I think a bigger issue is that 4 will want to stay together, and Cal isn’t wanted by the Big 12

There are also the considerations of exit fees and GOR. If either the Big 12 or ACC modified the exit fees to be reduced for schools leaving for P2, that would have pull. Given Fox/BIG is the hoped for P2 destination of PAC, that’s easier to see occurring in the Big 12 imo

I don’t think the name of consolidated leftover conference is terribly important. A conference in which both major network players share the leftover legacy costs, with espn pays $20 million, seems like a intentional setup to me

New money entering the environment most likely means a college athletics league of extreme aggregation or bundling of rights any way, but likely with different revenue between conferences. Good luck to BIG if Disney raises the capital to bundle together a P1 and start the attritional war with ESPN’s own CFB and CBB tournaments.

(07-25-2023 06:12 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(07-25-2023 05:59 PM)PeteTheChop Wrote:  ... and by damage control in the thread title, this sure reads like an article designed to let the air out of the balloon in case Colorado confirms it's returning to the Big XII.

Something we might expect from a reporter who has carried the Pac-12's water since Day One

While I still think it unlikely that Colorado joins the Big 12 alone, the one thing Wilner and others are not saying is that Texas is a hot bed of recruits and with Los Angeles in Big 10 hands Southern California, already suffering population decline, is no longer a certain source for Colorado recruits. If the Buffs had joined the Big 10 with USC and UCLA, then this issue would not be as palpable. The risk of their return to the Big 12 has been Texas recruiting. Colorado weighs academic associations with a shaky PAC 12 vs the access to athletes in Texas. The outcome of that comparison is by far anything but certain. The PAC cannot soldier on by losing AAU flagship schools and replacing them with G5s. Lose Denver and they lose another key market. Lose Denver and Phoenix and that PAC 12 reach is likely clipped beyond recovery. Then you'll see every man for himself at absolutely the worst possible time. That time being the drawback at ESPN, the uncertainty over expansion by the Big 10, and the SEC's desire to stay regional. If ESPN were healthy and flush, I could see a grab for time zone slots or market expansion. But they are weak because the new game is apparently going to be about actual viewership. The four corners are among the weakest in viewership among PAC 12 members. In that milieu perhaps the Big 12 is the appropriate fit by payout range. The problem is where do the higher value schools of the PAC go if the Big 10 isn't open for business?

This is the correct question. What do these schools do if the pac12 is unable to emerge from media realignment vortex to strike a deal.

(07-25-2023 11:26 PM)Acres Wrote:  

(07-25-2023 06:12 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(07-25-2023 05:59 PM)PeteTheChop Wrote:  ... and by damage control in the thread title, this sure reads like an article designed to let the air out of the balloon in case Colorado confirms it's returning to the Big XII.

Something we might expect from a reporter who has carried the Pac-12's water since Day One

While I still think it unlikely that Colorado joins the Big 12 alone, the one thing Wilner and others are not saying is that Texas is a hot bed of recruits and with Los Angeles in Big 10 hands Southern California, already suffering population decline, is no longer a certain source for Colorado recruits. If the Buffs had joined the Big 10 with USC and UCLA, then this issue would not be as palpable. The risk of their return to the Big 12 has been Texas recruiting. Colorado weighs academic associations with a shaky PAC 12 vs the access to athletes in Texas. The outcome of that comparison is by far anything but certain. The PAC cannot soldier on by losing AAU flagship schools and replacing them with G5s. Lose Denver and they lose another key market. Lose Denver and Phoenix and that PAC 12 reach is likely clipped beyond recovery. Then you'll see every man for himself at absolutely the worst possible time. That time being the drawback at ESPN, the uncertainty over expansion by the Big 10, and the SEC's desire to stay regional. If ESPN were healthy and flush, I could see a grab for time zone slots or market expansion. But they are weak because the new game is apparently going to be about actual viewership. The four corners are among the weakest in viewership among PAC 12 members. In that milieu perhaps the Big 12 is the appropriate fit by payout range. The problem is where do the higher value schools of the PAC go if the Big 10 isn't open for business?

This is the correct question. What do these schools do if the pac12 is unable to emerge from media realignment vortex to strike a deal.

That question can only be answered after we see what happens with the PAC. If only Colorado leaves, then yeah everyone probably stays together. If all of the 4c schools leave then the PAC will be in shambles and the B1G will be able to get UW and Oregon at a bargain. Don't fool yourself the networks want them and so do the presidents of the B1G, but only if the price is right.