It's kind of an irrelevant question IMO. There will always be a "Tier 2" west-coast conference. The MWC has filled that role since the original 8 broke off from the WAC, and now it appears that the Pac-12 will eventually become the west's Tier 2 conference.

These things morph over time. The specific conference name doesn't matter as much as the relative ranking.

(07-16-2023 12:08 PM)UofMstateU Wrote:  The MWC would have two immediate issues to deal with, with a third looming issue.

1. The MWC would be losing a member that was worth more than a full share in the media rights market.

2. They would be adding an additional school, further diluting the per school payout.

Back during the last B12 and AAC expansions, the MWC also wanted to expand. But their media partner would not pay a single cent more for any team. That pretty much means that their re-negotiated contract is not going to go anywhere near as well as it did for the AAC. They could legitimately be look at $3M-$3.5M per team going forward.

Which leads to a looming 3rd issue. If the AAC loses SMU, they will likely go after Air Force again. Maybe a combination of Airforce and CSU. The MWC would have an issue forcing a $17million exit fee if the per school payout is dropping, so the MWC would have two choices. A. Allow the schools to leave for a reduced exit fee or B. Increase these two team's payout to keep it at the level they are currently receiving, cutting severely into everyone else' payout.

I guess why would Colorado St. entertain a AAC offer at this point when a crumbling PAC offer would be a better option?

Unless they get into a last man standing situation where Boise, Fresno, Hawaii are all out the door which doesn't appear to be happening.

(07-16-2023 12:24 PM)Garden_KC Wrote:  

(07-16-2023 12:08 PM)UofMstateU Wrote:  The MWC would have two immediate issues to deal with, with a third looming issue.

1. The MWC would be losing a member that was worth more than a full share in the media rights market.

2. They would be adding an additional school, further diluting the per school payout.

Back during the last B12 and AAC expansions, the MWC also wanted to expand. But their media partner would not pay a single cent more for any team. That pretty much means that their re-negotiated contract is not going to go anywhere near as well as it did for the AAC. They could legitimately be look at $3M-$3.5M per team going forward.

Which leads to a looming 3rd issue. If the AAC loses SMU, they will likely go after Air Force again. Maybe a combination of Airforce and CSU. The MWC would have an issue forcing a $17million exit fee if the per school payout is dropping, so the MWC would have two choices. A. Allow the schools to leave for a reduced exit fee or B. Increase these two team's payout to keep it at the level they are currently receiving, cutting severely into everyone else' payout.

I guess why would Colorado St. entertain a AAC offer at this point when a crumbling PAC offer would be a better option?

Unless they get into a last man standing situation where Boise, Fresno, Hawaii are all out the door which doesn't appear to be happening.

if the pac signs onto the media rights deal with a gor, then its not going to crumble for a while, and they will likely not look to expand unti ltheir next media deal needs to get negotiated. CSU would know sooner rather than later if they should move. (Basically, they would know the moment if and when SDSU is invited.)

At this point I'm not totally sold on it being SDSU. If the PAC truly is happy with the numbers they are seeing, and if the numbers arent a complete fabrication, then I dont think its SDSU. I think they have been re-running some media numbers through with different configurations of teams to the east, which could bolster the media rights deal like it did the B12. That would also help explain the delay, as it would deal with time zone shifts in coverage, etc.

(07-16-2023 12:45 PM)UofMstateU Wrote:  

(07-16-2023 12:24 PM)Garden_KC Wrote:  

(07-16-2023 12:08 PM)UofMstateU Wrote:  The MWC would have two immediate issues to deal with, with a third looming issue.

1. The MWC would be losing a member that was worth more than a full share in the media rights market.

2. They would be adding an additional school, further diluting the per school payout.

Back during the last B12 and AAC expansions, the MWC also wanted to expand. But their media partner would not pay a single cent more for any team. That pretty much means that their re-negotiated contract is not going to go anywhere near as well as it did for the AAC. They could legitimately be look at $3M-$3.5M per team going forward.

Which leads to a looming 3rd issue. If the AAC loses SMU, they will likely go after Air Force again. Maybe a combination of Airforce and CSU. The MWC would have an issue forcing a $17million exit fee if the per school payout is dropping, so the MWC would have two choices. A. Allow the schools to leave for a reduced exit fee or B. Increase these two team's payout to keep it at the level they are currently receiving, cutting severely into everyone else' payout.

I guess why would Colorado St. entertain a AAC offer at this point when a crumbling PAC offer would be a better option?

Unless they get into a last man standing situation where Boise, Fresno, Hawaii are all out the door which doesn't appear to be happening.

if the pac signs onto the media rights deal with a gor, then its not going to crumble for a while, and they will likely not look to expand unti ltheir next media deal needs to get negotiated. CSU would know sooner rather than later if they should move. (Basically, they would know the moment if and when SDSU is invited.)

At this point I'm not totally sold on it being SDSU. If the PAC truly is happy with the numbers they are seeing, and if the numbers arent a complete fabrication, then I dont think its SDSU. I think they have been re-running some media numbers through with different configurations of teams to the east, which could bolster the media rights deal like it did the B12. That would also help explain the delay, as it would deal with time zone shifts in coverage, etc.

Going to the east is not entirely a bad move by the PAC.

They could go into the central time zone with SMU, Tulane and Memphis. Three quality markets and programs. Better than trying ultra tiny Rice which is too small to compete.

But I also see the idea of throwing everything into the southwest and going with San Diego St, UNLV and Colorado St with the idea of keeping the 4C's happy. SMU still in this scenario.

(07-16-2023 03:17 AM)Garden_KC Wrote:  MWC can be taken seriously so long as they have Boise State.

The assumption is they aren't leaving right now but if they were that would probably mean the MWC was out 3-4 schools minimum.

At that point the MWC is another CUSA type conference with small, far flung membership.

You didn't hear? Boise St is joining the B1G in football, and the Ivy League in all other sports.

(07-16-2023 06:41 AM)PicksUp Wrote:  

(07-16-2023 01:13 AM)WhoseHouse? Wrote:  If losing UConn, Houston, UCF, and Cincy hasn’t killed the AAC then I doubt losing SDSU will kill the MWC.

Zero comparison. There were multiple viable expansion candidates in the AAC footprint, whatever that may be. In markets and with money invested in athletics.

If the MW loses 2-3 schools, What expansion candidates are there for them? Texas St? UTEP? NMSU. I dont think Texas St jumps. The Dakotas are way too out there.

They wont be finished but they will be even further behind the AAC and just above CUSA.

Why wouldn't Tx St jump for twice the money, more prestige, and nearly the same travel? You seem to be very opinionated about things, yet often have nothing to back up said opinions other than "just cause".

Boise State wants out of the MWC like yesterday.

I don't think so.

(07-16-2023 02:52 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  

(07-16-2023 06:41 AM)PicksUp Wrote:  

(07-16-2023 01:13 AM)WhoseHouse? Wrote:  If losing UConn, Houston, UCF, and Cincy hasn’t killed the AAC then I doubt losing SDSU will kill the MWC.

Zero comparison. There were multiple viable expansion candidates in the AAC footprint, whatever that may be. In markets and with money invested in athletics.

If the MW loses 2-3 schools, What expansion candidates are there for them? Texas St? UTEP? NMSU. I dont think Texas St jumps. The Dakotas are way too out there.

They wont be finished but they will be even further behind the AAC and just above CUSA.

Why wouldn't Tx St jump for twice the money, more prestige, and nearly the same travel? You seem to be very opinionated about things, yet often have nothing to back up said opinions other than "just cause".

More prestige? SBC has a good rep in FB now. Do you think SoMiss would be flipping to the AAC if it had the opportunity?

More money? New AAC entrants only get 2 million of media income.

To get Boise and Fresno the AAC would have to give them full revenue shares. Same with any of the other MWC teams.

TxSt or Georgia St would get the newbie deal of 2 million per year that Charllote and UTSA got.

The Mountain West name may get retired, but it will likely live on as the Pac 14.

Pacific - Washington State, Oregon State, Hawaii, San Diego State, San Jose State, Fresno State, Boise State
Mountain - Nevada, UNLV, Utah State, Air Force, Colorado State, Wyoming, New Mexico

If the Pac 12 gets stuck wtih SMU, they may go to 16 with another Texas school, assuming any are interested. SMU may be try to get in the ACC if it gets picked apart by the SEC and B1G, or even the Big 12 should the ACC be able to reload at their expense.

(07-16-2023 11:31 AM)46566 Wrote:  I don't think so if they just lose San Diego State. Simply add UTEP (adds a rivalry game to TV contract) and UC San Diego to get back into San Diego. That's 12 all sports members. You stay in a weakened position in San Diego and pick up El Paso.

UCSD just joined the Big West and just got to D1. They don't have much of a following here in town and they will likely be well behind SDSU in MBB for quite some time.