(07-06-2023 09:45 AM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  

(07-06-2023 02:57 AM)Skyhawk Wrote:  

(07-05-2023 01:27 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  During a lot of our discussions, there are certain schools that get mentioned over and over again as "a good fit for the SEC" or "a good fit for the B1G", and only a couple that are viewed as a good fit for both. Why is that? We have the same general criteria, but with the B1G placing more weight on the Academic fit and the SEC placing more weight on the geographic fit.

What got me to write this was another post about GT potentially going to the B1G. I view this as the same category as NC St to the SEC. They each only get thrown around b/c the other Conference would have zero, or very nearly zero interest in them.

I think a good way for us to evaluate potential P2 invitees going forward is: "Would both of the P2 be interested in this school if it was a good fit geographically and was AAU?". Ie, is the school's Brand, tv ratings, fan enthusiasm, historical on-field or on-court success, attendance, Flagship or very strong 1A status in their own State, etc etc, is all of that indicative that both of the P2 would consider the school if they were AAU and in a desirable location geographically?

Schools that would be desirable to both P5 if they were a geographical fit and AAU:

ND
UW
UO
Clemson
UNC
FSU

Schools that might be desirable to both P5 if they were a geographical fit and AAU:

ASU
UVA
VT
Miami
KU
CU

The Stanford and Cal Category

Cal
Stanford

Cal and Stanford are on the very low end of that 2nd tier, in fact probably the low end of most M3 schools in many categories, but their Academics and Geography are both so outstanding that they get a lot of bonus points for potential, and I think that Frank's reasoning of "the B1G would try to find an excuse to add them b/c they're so academically superior" has merit. I tried to imagine a carveout here for GT and NC St in that same "Stanford and Cal" category, and I just couldn't convince myself. Cal is a Flagship in the biggest State in the Country, and Stanford is Harvard West. GT is a distant 2nd in their own city, with a very large number of nearby SEC schools. The SEC doesn't need them, and the B1G wouldn't add them any more than the SEC would add the University of Ohio to get into that State. NC St is more interesting Athletically b/c they care about football, but they're a distant 2nd or even 3rd in their own State, and they don't care any more about football or get better fan enthusiasm or ratings than all of the big 12 Texas and Oklahoma schools. VT has much more history of on-field success, a much bigger stadium, and a much stronger place in their own state compared to the flagship. In fact, they draw about the same number of people to games as FSU year in and year out.

Most of the rest of the M3 are clustered in a "good but not P2 candidate" status a step below the Cal/Stanford line. The only "Flagships" that are currently in the M3 that I left out of any list are Utah and UArizona, and both of them are overshadowed by schools in their own state. Consider that the 16 team SEC has 12 true Flagships and the B1G has 12 (counting UCLA as a Flagship). The only non-Flagships recently added to either conference (since 1990)? A&M and USC.

ND, Clemson and FSU are in the neighborhood of that A&M and USC category, and the other 3 in that top list are Flagships. The 2nd list has some flagships and some very strong non-Flagships, but they're clearly a step down from FSU and Clemson.

If you think that "school XXX" deserves to be in the top line, convince us that it's an FSU or UW type of school. If you think that a school should be in that 2nd category, convince us that it's a big Brand Flagship or Flagship equivalent, or at least talk about its large number of National Titles in Football or MBB.

Interesting post, but trying to groups schools together based upon what both the SEC and the Big10 together want, is always going to lead you down the road of inaccuracy.

We've seen time and again that the SEC and the Big10 each has different criteria for what they are looking for.

Besides that, to just grab one example - Virginia fits the geography of both conferences, and is AAU. So I'm not sure your lists even match your own criteria.

UVA is on my 2nd list. I didn't say that list had to include only schools outside the AAU or with bad geography, I just meant that any school on that list would be at least considered by both the P2 if it met all of our criteria (which has a more Academics-focus in the B1G and a great geography focus in the SEC). I could actually have just said "if this school was an AAU school in Virginia or North Carolina then both the P2 would consider them".

I can only read what you wrote. Only you know what you may have meant to say. The rest of us can only merely guess based upon what they can see.

But for the rest, you still have the problem of trying to group what the SEC wants, with what the Big10 wants, and by doing so, you set a foundation that will lead to erroneous conclusions.

But hey, we're all guessing here, so whatever - have fun : )

(07-08-2023 08:23 AM)georgia_tech_swagger Wrote:  

(07-05-2023 11:47 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  GT averaged 36k fans in 2022, about the same in 2021, 43k in 2019, 43k in 2018, 46k in 2017...their attendance dropped, hard, from Covid, and it hasn't come back. Others in the ACC and SEC also lost a lot during Covid, but the schools that care about football, even those with recent poor runs of form like GT's, have gotten their fans back. Their TV ratings are very low. Their Brand is probably at an all time low. They're light years behind the clear #1 (UGA) in their State.

You literally just defined GT's attendance as the Geoff Collins era. The worst HC -- that's a mathematical fact -- in the history of GT football. I'm sure I could make a compelling case that TAMU football was falling off an attendance cliff if I only used data from the Mike Sherman era. You literally cherry picked the worst data from the worst FB HC in the history of GT Athletics. And then you merrily ascribe it all to COVID. This is one of the most ignorant things I've ever heard stated about GT Athletics. Even Dawg fans are gonna point at Collins and not COVID. Speaking of UGA, after cherry picking the worst data ever for GT you then compare to the program all-time high water mark in Athens. It's hard to see anything other than somebody who hates GT making "arguments" like that. Furthermore, GT fans are a diaspora like West Virginia fans. Metropolitan Atlanta only needs so many nuclear engineers. Metropolitan Atlanta needs zero astronauts. By definition a large number of GT graduates are exported across the greater southeast and major markets across the country. You might not spot GT with insane density even in Atlanta. But if you pay attention you'll spot them all over. Butts in seats in the home stadium is just as much of an undercount for GT as it is for WVU.

(07-05-2023 11:47 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  Atlanta might be the best location in the country for a football team, however, and GT's Academics are Elite in every sense of the word. So, what we get a lot of is "the SEC wouldn't want GT, but the B1G might!". There's even a post in this thread about that very thing. The problem with that line of thinking is, when has the B1G EVER added a school like GT?

GT is a unique institution among FBS. Asking for a direct comparison to another team is a fool's errand and demonstrates a lack of understanding about what differentiates GT from everybody else. If Cal Tech or MIT or Carnegie Mellon fielded D1 FBS teams then you could compare. They don't. So any comparison you make you might as well just be pissing into the wind.

(07-05-2023 11:47 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  Try to convince us that GT is more-desirable to the B1G than at least Maryland.

There's no us here. There's only you and your terrible arguments. If you want to win some titles in women's double dutch and men's skulls and women's water polo ... hey ... Maryland is your team. They are only too happy to set 8 figures a year of cash on fire in the pursuit of Director's Cup points so that at the end of the day they might win a title in a sport nobody cares about and produce an Olympic athlete or two from a foreign country. If however you care about the sports that fans actually watch (football, men's basketball, baseball ... in that order with no others), then the picture inverts entirely comparing UMD and GT on the field success.

(07-05-2023 11:47 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  Drop down below those? I'm sure that it's possible that tOSU wants more schools in the B1G that can bring in 36k fans to every single game, but it seems unlikely.

Ah yes, be sure to finish on "Geoff Collins is the standard and the entire history worth contemplating of GT football". Part of an exciting series including ...

"Georgia football is dead if you only look at the Ray Goff era."
"Texas football is dead if you only look at the Charlie Strong era."
"Notre Dame football is dead if you only look at the Charlie Weis era."
"Wisconsin football is dead if you only look at the Don Morton era."
"Alabama football is dead if you only look at the Mike Shula era."

Good arguments, and we all know how a bad coach can turn a great program into an afterthought. When I look at GT though, it's not like it was a great program before Collins took over and he trashed it. From 2009 to 2022, including both the 11-3 seasons with Orange bowl appearances, GT is exactly .500 on the field. In 2009, average attendance was over 50k, but they only had one sellout of 55k, and that was the Georgia game. In 2014, the 2nd best season GT has had since leaving the SEC, attendance was 48k per game, with 0 sellouts. Didn't sell out Miami or Clemson, and in fact the best attendance of 53k was Georgia Southern.

Looking at TV numbers from the Sic'em analysis of 2013 to 2021, GT is in the middle of the 2nd tier ACC pack, which trails FSU/Clemson/Miami/Louisivlle/VT by a pretty significant amount. I realize that this coincides with the recent struggles, but it's the best data I have available, and the P2 are likely to put more credence on that than on historical date from the 90s and 2000s. GT is about 10% ahead of Maryland in these ratings, but 33% behind Missouri. GT is also ahead of Maryland in recent home game attendance, though again about 33% behind Missouri. Using that data, you could make the case that GT is in the discussion for being at or near the Maryland line, though with Maryland's struggles in the B1G I think that Missouri is a better comparison.

https://sicem365.com/s/13048/how-many-vi...am-attract