I don’t believe Army is joining a conference, and specifically not the AAC, because I don’t think the AAC can resolve the Army-Navy game demands to be on its own weekend and have its own TV deal successfully.

(06-21-2023 04:40 PM)ENCterrapin Wrote:  Wouldn't Army be at the top of the list or did I miss something?

If Army wanted in the AAC I figured they would have joined this past go around. I just don't see them biting unless it becomes a requirement you have to be in a conference (which it won't).

(06-21-2023 04:28 PM)Usajags Wrote:  UNT was already added as the SMU replacement. That is why UNT was added to begin with.

Can you show me a reputable link supporting this claim? No. you can't. That entire narrative was made up and propagated by those that can't understand why UNT was added to the AAC, while their program(s) was/were passed over.

It is no secret that many SMU fans do not want to be in a conference with UNT, but they don't have the power to move SMU into the PAC. If they did, it would have happened before UNT ever landed in the AAC.

The truth is UNT was added because we are investing and building in a manner that is aligned with the goals of the AAC. Aresco has said as much in interviews.

Looking at the Metrics your most able to compete financially list are:

Colorado State (if not taken by Pac-12), Army, Air Force, Boise State and Liberty. Liberty is artificially inflated by massive institutional transfers.

If I'm looking at markets, willing to pick lower budget schools then I come up with:

UMass, Middle Tennessee and Georgia State. If you are taking schools from this group you take two, put them on half shares. Georgia State is behind the other two, especially in basketball, yet they reside in a bigger metro.

The other option, which is the most likely should the MWC schools and Army pass as expected, is to sit at 13 and let things play out a few years to see which of the schools on your candidate list continue to develop.

My vote would be "none, stand at 13 for now"

(06-21-2023 03:38 PM)CitrusUCF Wrote:  Based on what we've seen during this cycle of realignment, it appears unlikely that the AAC will target most Sun Belt schools, even those whose football programs fit well in the AAC (e.g. App State), so I'm limiting the Sun Belt options to just ones that fit within the AAC.

For the sake of this poll, let's assume that the MWC also cannot be raided -- though I think that may well change if SDSU leaves and the MWC TV deal is downgraded as a result.

Edit - Realized I'm an idiot and left out Georgia State, which was the other SBC school I wanted to include. Just post if you think it's them.

If the AAC only lost SMU and these were the only available options, then the AAC's best move would be to stay at 13, just like the conference stayed at an odd number when UConn left. Personally, I think Army and Air Force are the top two candidates to replace SMU, once they finally get a PAC invitation.

I was thinking Tx State, but they've been terrible in football since they moved to FBS. I instead voted Sam Houston St, though after seeing that their stadium only seats 12k...ugh, I don't know. Probably not Sam Houston, maybe Texas St, maybe nobody...this is a good debate.

Army normally plays a "soft "schedule so they can get a easy path to a bowl game. Going to the AAC would kill that.

(06-21-2023 04:20 PM)Crayton Wrote:  Depends on if ESPN threatens a hair-cut. If Team #14 allows the conference to keep SMU’s share they’ll definitely add. If not, they stay at 13.

My top guess for #14 would be Georgia State, but no one looks to be a slam dunk add. I don’t think any MW teams are on the table. I suppose MAC teams are available.

I think Georgia St is a better option than any of the Texas schools.

(06-21-2023 04:20 PM)Crayton Wrote:  Depends on if ESPN threatens a hair-cut. If Team #14 allows the conference to keep SMU’s share they’ll definitely add. If not, they stay at 13.

My top guess for #14 would be Georgia State, but no one looks to be a slam dunk add. I don’t think any MW teams are on the table. I suppose MAC teams are available.

Georgia State is my choice too.

(06-21-2023 04:43 PM)CitrusUCF Wrote:  I don’t believe Army is joining a conference, and specifically not the AAC, because I don’t think the AAC can resolve the Army-Navy game demands to be on its own weekend and have its own TV deal successfully.

There's no question scheduling of the Army-Navy game is a consideration, but so is the expanded CFP.

https://apnews.com/article/college-footb...340f743367

(06-21-2023 04:49 PM)darkdragon99 Wrote:  Army normally plays a "soft "schedule so they can get a easy path to a bowl game. Going to the AAC would kill that.

Don't they play 2 FCS schools and UMass (a quasi-FBS-ish school)? So that's 3 wins right there then Louisiana-Monroe (isn't their entire athletic budget the smallest in FBS?).That's 4 wins and they have to sweat out 2 more..........

(06-21-2023 04:58 PM)ZooMass84 Wrote:  

(06-21-2023 04:49 PM)darkdragon99 Wrote:  Army normally plays a "soft "schedule so they can get a easy path to a bowl game. Going to the AAC would kill that.

Don't they play 2 FCS schools and UMass (a quasi-FBS-ish school)? So that's 3 wins right there then Louisiana-Monroe (isn't their entire athletic budget the smallest in FBS?).That's 4 wins and they have to sweat out 2 more..........

If you play two FCS games you can only count one towards bowl eligibility.

(06-21-2023 04:57 PM)BeatWestern! Wrote:  

(06-21-2023 04:43 PM)CitrusUCF Wrote:  I don’t believe Army is joining a conference, and specifically not the AAC, because I don’t think the AAC can resolve the Army-Navy game demands to be on its own weekend and have its own TV deal successfully.

There's no question scheduling of the Army-Navy game is a consideration, but so is the expanded CFP.

https://apnews.com/article/college-footb...340f743367

This^^

(06-21-2023 05:18 PM)ENCterrapin Wrote:  

(06-21-2023 04:57 PM)BeatWestern! Wrote:  

(06-21-2023 04:43 PM)CitrusUCF Wrote:  I don’t believe Army is joining a conference, and specifically not the AAC, because I don’t think the AAC can resolve the Army-Navy game demands to be on its own weekend and have its own TV deal successfully.

There's no question scheduling of the Army-Navy game is a consideration, but so is the expanded CFP.

https://apnews.com/article/college-footb...340f743367

This^^

Yeah, I keep thinking about this article. I think Army will be ready to conference up with another year or two.

San Diego State

Army and a basketball school... otherwise, stay at 13.

Georgia St. if they can't get Army

Don’t think they will add anyone. I believe the AAC fully expected to lose 1-3 more members when the CUSA 6 were added. Only reason the Charlotte/UNT adds made any sense.

(06-21-2023 04:48 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  I was thinking Tx State, but they've been terrible in football since they moved to FBS. I instead voted Sam Houston St, though after seeing that their stadium only seats 12k...ugh, I don't know. Probably not Sam Houston, maybe Texas St, maybe nobody...this is a good debate.

Texas State football budget was $9,884,504, while SMU's was $27,075,598. If you look at Men's Basketball it was $2,060,124 vs SMU's $8,143,677.

That is not a replacement or even close. Texas State is #107 in football budget of 129 FBS schools (the military academies do not report), and #124 in MBB among the same FBS group, 115th overall in team budgets (FB+MBB+WBB).

This is why I scoffed at Frank the Tank's uninformed opinion in favor of Texas State as a possible MWC expansion candidate. They are way below every MWC and AAC program.

If you are going by resources to compete, then from the SBC your best choices are Coastal Carolina, Old Dominion, Marshall and Louisiana Lafayette. Geography and small undergrad counts would rule out Marshall and ULL. These schools have similar resources as Wyoming, UNLV, Nevada, Fresno State, Boise State and Utah State in the Mountain West. They'd slot in with the likes of ECU, UAB, Rice, FAU and UTSA, a bit ahead of bottom dwellers UNT, Charlotte and Tulane (why I laugh at suggestions that Tulane could be a Pac-12 target, given the small student body, low athletic resources and declining metro area; recency bias overtaking true outlook for the school long term; they'd have to double their athletic budget to be within shouting distance of Washington State's Pac-12 caboose ).

(06-21-2023 05:35 PM)Fresno St. Alum Wrote:  Georgia St. if they can't get Army

Bingo!