(06-09-2023 04:53 PM)Tigers2B1 Wrote:  

(06-09-2023 02:01 PM)Boots Wrote:  Paul Finebaum was just on the Jason and John show in Memphis ESPN radio. He said he was in Washington DC for the NIL deal this week and spoke with Arizona President Bobby Robbins...

Paul's words were .....my distinct impression from him was that the Big 12 was not in play for Arizona. And if Arizona is not in play than Colorado is likely not in play. He said word was the PAC deal will be good enough to keep everyone in the PAC.

For what it's worth...

Suggestion that the pac-12 money will be almost exactly the same as the big 12s.

That fits w/ the Big 12 shifting to the Memphis visit and talking UConn, Gonzaga more and more.

PAC 12 will earn more than $31 million where they can sell their top tier one games for CW/ION to keep the bigger name schools in place. Apple would be about $31 million and CW/ION combo as a joint force would be around $20 to $25 million. That would keep all the schools in place since it would be more than the Big 12 schools be getting. The PAC 12 than would be in position to raid the Big 12 with the bigger payouts.

(06-09-2023 04:59 PM)Fresno St. Alum Wrote:  That fits w/ the Big 12 shifting to the Memphis visit and talking UConn, Gonzaga more and more.

Yes, everything is lining up. My guess is GK and Schulz asked CU for more time, and they gave them more time. Yormark has rightly pivoted. My best guess is Fox agreed to the pro-rata at a certain date. That date is hard, probably at the end of the month. I’d imagine as soon as next week because of the Holiday the following week.

I think Memphis will be announced the final week of June. I’m not sure what timeline UConn has. But Memphis would probably come in in 25’ if CU and UA don’t jump.

Slight favorite 2/4 corners jump, but it’s a coinflip. It’s going to be contingent on multiple schools taking less shares in order for UO and UW to sign. We all know who those schools are…

If Memphis is being looked at? Could they go back to Boise State? Boise State's facilities are much better than UNLV's right now. One thing I think what would be brought back would be baseball. Boise dropped baseball because of the pandemic.

I’m surprised so many people still think there’s some magical trigger that prompts the B1G to invite UW/UO this cycle.

* Pac Stays together.

* Big12 responds by adding Simon Fraser University in Canada to get into the Pacific Time Zone and the coveted Vancouver TV market. They also Add Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México (UNAM) to get a presence in the Mexican market (Hey B12 <3 Mexico). WVU invests in space shuttles to cut down commute times for conference games, but they can only afford it for football games.

* B1G brings in ND through the ecclesiastical authority of the papal bull.

* SEC doesn't care about all the drama in other conferences - they are best football conference in America and nothing else matters.

My prediction?

- Pac-12 adds SDSU and SMU.
- Big 12 adds UNLV and Memphis.

And that's it.

(06-09-2023 12:23 PM)ChrisLords Wrote:  Prediction at this time (subject to change):

Pac 12 - stays together, adds SMU and SDSU

Big 12 - adds USF, Memphis, UConn and Temple (cornering the market on possible ACC expansion schools)

ACC - does nothing. Let's the B12 soak up all the good G5 schools.

Like above scenario...

LIKE PAC stays together...adds SMU & SDSU...

IF PAC loses 4Cs THEN PAC adds MWC Carnegie Classified R1s universities UNR, UNLV, CSU, & USU...

IF PAC loses Cal/Stanford or WA/OR THEN PAC adds additional MWC Carnegie Classified R1s universities HI & NM...

LIKE B12 adds USF & Memphis...
(Absorbing possible ACC expansion schools)

LIKE ACC - does nothing. Let's the B12 soak up all the good G5 schools.

Colorado and ASU to the SEC. UW/UO to B1G. Everyone else except OSU/WSU to big 12.

Colo to B-12
SDST replaces Colo & Pac stays at 10
Ariz keeps their BB credits & move to B-12 would be a wash

B-12 expands with Colo & Memphis
Conn gotta be telling B-12 ACC is calling.
B-12 tells Conn to improve FB & before ready to jump, B-12 will give a better offer
that gives B-12 time to come up with partner for Conn

(06-09-2023 03:05 PM)Fresno St. Alum Wrote:  My prediction? Pain

Mandell is bad at math. The Pac-12 number is looking to be quite a bit short of the Big 12.

Most observers are of the opinion that despite that the Pac-12 mostly stays intact, but a good chance Colorado and maybe also Arizona peel off. Washington and Oregon likely don't have the B1G bailout for now, so Utah will stick along with Cal and Stanford, plus of course Wazzu and Oregon State. If one or two schools decide they should go, then the Pac-12 will backfill with San Diego State and if need another school. If they miss the deadline they'll probably forward some money to San Diego State to help them come in earlier.

Maybe they are right. Probably they are right. Just going to have to wait and see. Everyone is hemorrhaging in the wake of USC and UCLA leaving, depressing revenue, with WSU having to make big budget cuts, Cal and UW having big stadium debts they have to start paying off. Another financial anchor is necessary for these schools to survive long term. That's not a recipe for stability.

(06-10-2023 02:37 AM)Stugray2 Wrote:  Mandell (sic) is bad at math. The Pac-12 number is looking to be quite a bit short of the Big 12.
....

The statement he's working from is this by Washington State president Kirk Schulz: “I’m not sure that it will be a lot larger than we saw in the past, (and) it shouldn’t be smaller than in the past. It may be fairly flat.”

This is a nugget of real information from an authoritative source.

Dr Schulz is comparing the new PAC deal with the old one. He's saying the new one will pay about the same, even after the two LA schools depart.

This is plausible. Things worked out similarly for the B12 after losing Texas and Oklahoma. The league was able to maintain a viable conference and make about the same money for members as before, despite the loss. The media environment was about the same then as it is now.

PAC stays together.

The B12 could still peel off a school or two but the odds of that are under 50%, I'd say. Anyway, the PAC as a conference will remain viable.

PAC expands with Aztecs and Mustangs.

This June 30 situation with San Diego State is being taken very seriously.

The new PAC deal will run until 2029. Tulane and Colorado State are on deck.

B12 stands pat at first, adds Memphis+1 in near future.

Colorado State, USF, Connecticut and Tulane are possibilities, but Rams would prefer PAC and others the ACC. No Gonzaga without other Pacific Northwest schools.

(06-09-2023 05:10 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  If Memphis is being looked at? Could they go back to Boise State? Boise State's facilities are much better than UNLV's right now. One thing I think what would be brought back would be baseball. Boise dropped baseball because of the pandemic.

Oh lawd

Boise State’s facilities are not better than UNLV’s.

BSU: The Bleymaier Football Center, a $22 million facility completed in July 2013

Their “smaller than Duke’s” football stadium

Taco Bell Arena (I will forever call it that) seats 12.6k

UNLV: Fertitta Football Complex, with a $35 million dollar price tag built in 2019

State of the art NFL stadium 10 mins from campus

Thomas & Mack Center seats 17.9k and hosts conference tournaments

SDSU + SMU to the PAC

Oregon + Washington to the B1G

PAC holds at 10 to give remaining teams extra money to remain competitive with ACC & Big 12

Memphis + 1 to the Big 12
- I don't like UNLV or UCONN to the Big 12, but I think UCONN gets the nod of the 2.
- I wouldn't be opposed of Boise St. since they were #6 last time around, with Memphis #5, giving BYU a travel partner and rival, but I don't see it happening with Yormark in charge now.
- I'd prefer SDSU + Memphis + Gonzaga for 14/15 with 1 annual rival for football and rotating 8 to play everyone else twice in 3 years. Basketball gets 2 protected rivals twice and plays 4 teams twice, 8 teams once rotating to play everyone 4 times in 3 seasons (everyone gets 1 2-game trip out west and 1 2-game trip out east for a balanced travel format).

In my view the 4C's should all try to get into the Big 12, but I think they are all too stuck up to do it. I also don't see SDSU getting into the Pac, so I think they'll stay at 10. That will be their downfall when eventually the B1G strikes again, and the remaining Pac 8 or Pac 6 have to play with Boise, SDSU, UNLV,
and SMU.

I feel as if the best solution would be for the Pac-10 and Big 12 to merge, excluding the newest Big 12 additions (UCF, HOU, CNCY, BYU). Then you could have an 18 team conference that doesn't include any former G5 schools. If a few schools were to leave eventually for the Big Ten then it won't matter much, since there would still be 14-16 teams remaining that are all P5.

(06-10-2023 05:55 AM)esayem Wrote:  

(06-09-2023 05:10 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  If Memphis is being looked at? Could they go back to Boise State? Boise State's facilities are much better than UNLV's right now. One thing I think what would be brought back would be baseball. Boise dropped baseball because of the pandemic.

Oh lawd

Boise State’s facilities are not better than UNLV’s.

BSU: The Bleymaier Football Center, a $22 million facility completed in July 2013

Their “smaller than Duke’s” football stadium

Taco Bell Arena (I will forever call it that) seats 12.6k

UNLV: Fertitta Football Complex, with a $35 million dollar price tag built in 2019

State of the art NFL stadium 10 mins from campus

Thomas & Mack Center seats 17.9k and hosts conference tournaments

Isn't it interesting how Fertittas bankroll both Houston and UNLV.

(06-10-2023 09:53 AM)maybeimhere Wrote:  

(06-10-2023 05:55 AM)esayem Wrote:  

(06-09-2023 05:10 PM)DavidSt Wrote:  If Memphis is being looked at? Could they go back to Boise State? Boise State's facilities are much better than UNLV's right now. One thing I think what would be brought back would be baseball. Boise dropped baseball because of the pandemic.

Oh lawd

Boise State’s facilities are not better than UNLV’s.

BSU: The Bleymaier Football Center, a $22 million facility completed in July 2013

Their “smaller than Duke’s” football stadium

Taco Bell Arena (I will forever call it that) seats 12.6k

UNLV: Fertitta Football Complex, with a $35 million dollar price tag built in 2019

State of the art NFL stadium 10 mins from campus

Thomas & Mack Center seats 17.9k and hosts conference tournaments

Isn't it interesting how Fertittas bankroll both Houston and UNLV.

I didn’t realize it was the same family, that is cool.

Ultimately the B1G has to add more western schools so USCLA isn’t on an island. I am guessing they will take 4 more PAC schools. The 4 corners schools know this. Ultimately they know they have to find a landing spot. Cal, Stanford, Oregon and Washington want to stay parked in the PAC until the B1G comes and gets them. Oregon State and Washington State want the PAC to exists as long as possible because they know there future is in the Mountain West. The big question is if the 4 corners want to hang out inthe PAC for the next 6 years or so hoping against hope for B1G invite. To me its 50/50 shot. The one thing I believe is that the B1G will eventually take more PAC schools.