Revised odds??

(06-07-2023 10:22 AM)yakko Wrote:  we also need odds on if we join the B12 imploding soon afterwards like the Big East did.

It's already taking place.

That's why they're going after PAC teams so hard.

Right now you have the P2, the p3, and G5.

Even before the next round of raids, the SEC and B1G are in a league if their own.

(06-07-2023 04:06 PM)Marc Mensa Wrote:  

(06-07-2023 11:23 AM)Atlanta Wrote:  

(06-07-2023 10:29 AM)jamgut Wrote:  

(06-07-2023 10:22 AM)Marc Mensa Wrote:  Arizona State is almost twice the size & is basically in Phoenix. Wouldn’t they be the better choice for the Big 12?

Perhaps AZ is interested primarily because of basketball?

I think the difference was because Arizona has indicated more interest in moving to the Big 12 than ASU.

Neither offer a great FB program but AZ offers an elite MBB program which is a primary interest for the B12 plans to split their FB & BB in their next media deal (they believe their #1 MBB programs are undervalued in their current contract). That said, I think they value having a Pacific time zone presence even more & will pursue that before any east interests.

Isn’t Arizona on its own time zone? We had a work team member based in Phoenix & it was always confusing trying to determine the time difference. Its like MST but no Daylight Savings time…

BYU is also MTN

(06-07-2023 04:53 PM)BIGDTiger Wrote:  Big 12 should add Memphis, Louisville, Florida State & Clemson

Also Notre Dame, Alabama, Ohio State, and Georgia

I'd say the chances are not good right now...

(06-13-2023 02:23 AM)EarthBoundMisfit Wrote:  I'd say the chances are not good right now...

That's been known for a long time though. Any money for non-P5 adds would have to be negotiated with ESPN and Fox. And it's not that the remaining 8 don't have money. It's would they want to share with a couple more teams in that small window? All of the Memphis-related interest has been happening well after knowing those things. And if nothing else we know Memphis was on a whiteboard of possible expansion candidates to evaluate. So there is at least a minimum amount of interest.

Plus what that person is missing is that Yormark made a change in his choice of words going from "additive" last year to "create value" after their recent meeting. And with him apparently intent on basketball having a separate media deal in the future, that actually helps us because of our basketball history. That said I'm currently around 90/10 that if the PAC stays together the Big 12 stays at 12 vs expanding with two G5 schools. I don't see it being four G5 schools if they expand.

(06-13-2023 04:16 AM)Alanda Wrote:  

(06-13-2023 02:23 AM)EarthBoundMisfit Wrote:  I'd say the chances are not good right now...

That's been known for a long time though. Any money for non-P5 adds would have to be negotiated with ESPN and Fox. And it's not that the remaining 8 don't have money. It's would they want to share with a couple more teams in that small window? All of the Memphis-related interest has been happening well after knowing those things. And if nothing else we know Memphis was on a whiteboard of possible expansion candidates to evaluate. So there is at least a minimum amount of interest.

Plus what that person is missing is that Yormark made a change in his choice of words going from "additive" last year to "create value" after their recent meeting. And with him apparently intent on basketball having a separate media deal in the future, that actually helps us because of our basketball history. That said I'm currently around 90/10 that if the PAC stays together the Big 12 stays at 12 vs expanding with two G5 schools. I don't see it being four G5 schools if they expand.

Good post. You are one of the few on this board that does his research, is objective, doesn't personalize remarks & doesn't let emotion skew his reasoning.

Perhaps I am missing something but I do not see the "added" revenue for new schools as a massive hang up, unless I am missing something.

To keep math simple let's say there are 10 Big12 teams and a $100,000,000 contract ($10mil/per).

Scenario 1... If Arizona and CU are added then it is simple, the contract becomes $120,000,000 and each schools remains at $10,000,000.

Scenario 2... Again for simplicity we will say just Memphis is added (yes, I realize that is not realistic). A. There is nothing in the contract stating there is no increase for a G5, just not guaranteed a full $10mil. B.) If we only added $5mil to the contract there is nothing I am aware of that would prevent the Big12 from paying Memphis only $5,000,000 instead of taking the new $105,000,000 and dividing it among the 11 and effectively diluting payouts to the existing schools. We know that is not going to happen. The current schools will not take a pay cut and the incoming G5 schools will simply split whatever value they add to the contract.

(06-13-2023 07:26 AM)SeñorTiger Wrote:  Perhaps I am missing something but I do not see the "added" revenue for new schools as a massive hang up, unless I am missing something.

To keep math simple let's say there are 10 Big12 teams and a $100,000,000 contract ($10mil/per).

Scenario 1... If Arizona and CU are added then it is simple, the contract becomes $120,000,000 and each schools remains at $10,000,000.

Scenario 2... Again for simplicity we will say just Memphis is added (yes, I realize that is not realistic). A. There is nothing in the contract stating there is no increase for a G5, just not guaranteed a full $10mil. B.) If we only added $5mil to the contract there is nothing I am aware of that would prevent the Big12 from paying Memphis only $5,000,000 instead of taking the new $105,000,000 and dividing it among the 11 and effectively diluting payouts to the existing schools. We know that is not going to happen. The current schools will not take a pay cut and the incoming G5 schools will simply split whatever value they add to the contract.

As I have read the issue is not so much the current new deal (which is fairly short) where Memphis or another G5 would get a reduced rate. The issue of concern from current members is how adding G5s might affect the per school payouts in the next contract with the previous G5 schools bringing down the per school payouts because they didn't bring part value when they came in.

(06-13-2023 08:52 AM)Atlanta Wrote:  

(06-13-2023 07:26 AM)SeñorTiger Wrote:  Perhaps I am missing something but I do not see the "added" revenue for new schools as a massive hang up, unless I am missing something.

To keep math simple let's say there are 10 Big12 teams and a $100,000,000 contract ($10mil/per).

Scenario 1... If Arizona and CU are added then it is simple, the contract becomes $120,000,000 and each schools remains at $10,000,000.

Scenario 2... Again for simplicity we will say just Memphis is added (yes, I realize that is not realistic). A. There is nothing in the contract stating there is no increase for a G5, just not guaranteed a full $10mil. B.) If we only added $5mil to the contract there is nothing I am aware of that would prevent the Big12 from paying Memphis only $5,000,000 instead of taking the new $105,000,000 and dividing it among the 11 and effectively diluting payouts to the existing schools. We know that is not going to happen. The current schools will not take a pay cut and the incoming G5 schools will simply split whatever value they add to the contract.

As I have read the issue is not so much the current new deal (which is fairly short) where Memphis or another G5 would get a reduced rate. The issue of concern from current members is how adding G5s might affect the per school payouts in the next contract with the previous G5 schools bringing down the per school payouts because they didn't bring part value when they came in.

Gotcha. That makes much more sense. Still, it seems like that can be pretty easily worked around with some sort of formula for future contracts and payouts.

(06-13-2023 08:52 AM)Atlanta Wrote:  

(06-13-2023 07:26 AM)SeñorTiger Wrote:  Perhaps I am missing something but I do not see the "added" revenue for new schools as a massive hang up, unless I am missing something.

To keep math simple let's say there are 10 Big12 teams and a $100,000,000 contract ($10mil/per).

Scenario 1... If Arizona and CU are added then it is simple, the contract becomes $120,000,000 and each schools remains at $10,000,000.

Scenario 2... Again for simplicity we will say just Memphis is added (yes, I realize that is not realistic). A. There is nothing in the contract stating there is no increase for a G5, just not guaranteed a full $10mil. B.) If we only added $5mil to the contract there is nothing I am aware of that would prevent the Big12 from paying Memphis only $5,000,000 instead of taking the new $105,000,000 and dividing it among the 11 and effectively diluting payouts to the existing schools. We know that is not going to happen. The current schools will not take a pay cut and the incoming G5 schools will simply split whatever value they add to the contract.

As I have read the issue is not so much the current new deal (which is fairly short) where Memphis or another G5 would get a reduced rate. The issue of concern from current members is how adding G5s might affect the per school payouts in the next contract with the previous G5 schools bringing down the per school payouts because they didn't bring part value when they came in.

These contracts will only continue to rise due to sports being the anything people watch live anymore. The rate of increase may slow, but that's the last place for ad folks.

(06-13-2023 02:23 AM)EarthBoundMisfit Wrote:  I'd say the chances are not good right now...

They never have been

(06-13-2023 07:06 AM)Atlanta Wrote:  

(06-13-2023 04:16 AM)Alanda Wrote:  

(06-13-2023 02:23 AM)EarthBoundMisfit Wrote:  I'd say the chances are not good right now...

That's been known for a long time though. Any money for non-P5 adds would have to be negotiated with ESPN and Fox. And it's not that the remaining 8 don't have money. It's would they want to share with a couple more teams in that small window? All of the Memphis-related interest has been happening well after knowing those things. And if nothing else we know Memphis was on a whiteboard of possible expansion candidates to evaluate. So there is at least a minimum amount of interest.

Plus what that person is missing is that Yormark made a change in his choice of words going from "additive" last year to "create value" after their recent meeting. And with him apparently intent on basketball having a separate media deal in the future, that actually helps us because of our basketball history. That said I'm currently around 90/10 that if the PAC stays together the Big 12 stays at 12 vs expanding with two G5 schools. I don't see it being four G5 schools if they expand.

Good post. You are one of the few on this board that does his research, is objective, doesn't personalize remarks & doesn't let emotion skew his reasoning.

Thanks. I try when I can to have/give reason(s) for my opinions and see what I can learn from others with a different perspective. From there give respect when someone has a different view instead of attacking them for it.

And in this case as much as there are things that work more in our favor than before and the fan in me thinks we would be a good addition, all the other things I've learned about realignment say our chances only increased slightly.

(06-13-2023 07:26 AM)SeñorTiger Wrote:  Perhaps I am missing something but I do not see the "added" revenue for new schools as a massive hang up, unless I am missing something.

To keep math simple let's say there are 10 Big12 teams and a $100,000,000 contract ($10mil/per).

Scenario 1... If Arizona and CU are added then it is simple, the contract becomes $120,000,000 and each schools remains at $10,000,000.

Scenario 2... Again for simplicity we will say just Memphis is added (yes, I realize that is not realistic). A. There is nothing in the contract stating there is no increase for a G5, just not guaranteed a full $10mil. B.) If we only added $5mil to the contract there is nothing I am aware of that would prevent the Big12 from paying Memphis only $5,000,000 instead of taking the new $105,000,000 and dividing it among the 11 and effectively diluting payouts to the existing schools. We know that is not going to happen. The current schools will not take a pay cut and the incoming G5 schools will simply split whatever value they add to the contract.

This situation has been more on the convoluted side of things. First with OUT announcing they are leaving as early as they did compared to when the current media deal ends. Then the Big 12 going out early to negotiate a new deal. They were supposed to start negotiating this year essentially the same as what we started seeing with the PAC last year since the PAC's deal ends a year before the B12's. Because of these things happening as they did there are still actually two years left on the current B12 deal.

2023/24 - Four schools join. The other eight remaining schools share some of their revenue to give those four a partial share for this season and the next. The second tweet.

2024/25 - This is the season that OUT paid to get out of to move to the SEC a year early.

This is what that second tweet in EarthBoundMisfit's post is talking about. How I believe it would go is that let's say the PAC does fall apart and the B12 adds some schools. What we've been hearing lately with the pro rata has been in relation to the deal that starts in 2025. This is the deal that ESPN added the language that the pro rata for their portion is only for current P5 schools as the previous language left it open for anyone (see the 2016 circus). Because the PAC's deal ends a year earlier those schools would come in for the 2024/25 year which is still under the old deal. ESPN and Fox would more than likely kick in some money for those schools under the old deal to help their move. Then the deal we've been hearing about starts the following year and that's when the $31.7M average comes into play. However only ESPN has the guaranteed pro rata for P5s and that covers $20M. Fox did not include a pro rata so the B12 would have to go back to them to get the remaining $11.7M for schools like the 4Cs. I've always felt Fox would easily do that because that gets them four PAC schools for less $47M/yr.

In our case if we got invited, I would expect our first season to be 2025/26 when the new media deal officially starts. 2023 is set in stone. And with 2024 I don't expect them to force another G5 in just for one season under the old deal. That would mean sharing more of their money on top of what they are giving to the new four schools. The money is there unlike what the tweet said, I just don't see them wanting to do it when they don't have to.

This goes into your hypothetical for the 2025 media deal. ESPN and Fox out of the kindness of their hearts in negotiation gives the B12 $5M of the potential $10M for adding Memphis. Our partial share would probably look like $2-$2.5M (maybe $3M if the B12 is also being kind and of course this is just the media portion). The remainder of the $5M gets spread out to the other 12 schools. We do this until the 2031 deal where we would then become a full member with a full share. For the B12 and their current schools that allows them to build our value for the next media deal while not losing much in the process. Reality suggests ESPN and Fox would say no (like in 2016) to paying anything for a Memphis add so the schools would have to give up a portion of their revenue to give Memphis a partial share. And that's where the fight against adding us would most likely come from.

TIGERNATION,
Ike’s working the streets of Memphis to garner the best information possible
Please lay low and let Ike get busy, Ike’s getting conflicting information and it will take Ike time to sift through the falsehoods

(06-18-2023 05:53 PM)memphisike Wrote:  TIGERNATION,
Ike’s working the streets of Memphis to garner the best information possible
Please lay low and let Ike get busy, Ike’s getting conflicting information and it will take Ike time to sift through the falsehoods

LOL - sure thing, Tigerscane. TrUtH

(06-18-2023 05:53 PM)memphisike Wrote:  TIGERNATION,
Ike’s working the streets of Memphis to garner the best information possible
Please lay low and let Ike get busy, Ike’s getting conflicting information and it will take Ike time to sift through the falsehoods

Well thanks for all your hard work.

Find it interesting that many B12 media are pushing the SDSU is making a mistake, SDSU is about to get screwed storyline.

(06-19-2023 01:12 AM)ncrdbl1 Wrote:  Find it interesting that many B12 media are pushing the SDSU is making a mistake, SDSU is about to get screwed storyline.

My guess is the MWC will open their arms and embrace the wayward Aztecs if the MWC's financial situation improves more with SDSU than without.

(06-18-2023 05:53 PM)memphisike Wrote:  TIGERNATION,
Ike’s working the streets of Memphis to garner the best information possible
Please lay low and let Ike get busy, Ike’s getting conflicting information and it will take Ike time to sift through the falsehoods

The boys down the alley have some information for you to sift.