None of them. Definitely not an FBS conference. There's too many schools below those levels who would happily jump into them, even if only for immediate short-term gains. Look no further than Jacksonville State, Kennesaw State, and Sam Houston State, who immediately ditched the "united" ASUN/WAC FBS idea when CUSA called.

Pac-12 isn't dying. MWC isn't dying. CUSA didn't die, and won't.

(06-04-2023 09:19 PM)Mav Wrote:  I honestly think the Summit's in a bit of trouble and can see a scenario where enough dominos fall out west that they lose Denver to the WCC.

I'm not sold that the WCC takes Denver, as they seem to like using travel partners, but if they do, that allows the Summit to add schools Denver saw as toxic like Grand Canyon and Utah Valley. If adding football becomes a matter of survival for the Summit, they could add Southern Utah, Utah Tech, Northern Colorado, and Abilene Christian. Of course the reverse can also happen, with South Dakota and North Dakota headed to the WAC.

I suspect if the Dakota four and Denver are out, the rest of the Summit (UMKC, ORU, Omaha, St. Thomas) looks to join the WAC or MVC.

The Big Sky is far from bloated - it only has 10 members, plus 2 affiliates for football - but there's no guarantee they take Southern Utah and/or Utah Tech if they lose anyone to the Mountain West. I think ultimately they will simply because of so many conferences having gone to 18 or more games in basketball.

(06-04-2023 11:53 AM)PlayBall! Wrote:  

(06-04-2023 11:50 AM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  I voted WAC.

Or, better yet, when the PAC and MW merge they acquire and use the storied WAC name.

If the "storied WAC name" was such a big deal then 2013 wouldn't have happened to the conference.

(06-04-2023 10:07 PM)chargeradio Wrote:  

(06-04-2023 09:19 PM)Mav Wrote:  I honestly think the Summit's in a bit of trouble and can see a scenario where enough dominos fall out west that they lose Denver to the WCC.

I'm not sold that the WCC takes Denver, as they seem to like using travel partners, but if they do, that allows the Summit to add schools Denver saw as toxic like Grand Canyon and Utah Valley. If adding football becomes a matter of survival for the Summit, they could add Southern Utah, Utah Tech, Northern Colorado, and Abilene Christian. Of course the reverse can also happen, with South Dakota and North Dakota headed to the WAC.

I suspect if the Dakota four and Denver are out, the rest of the Summit (UMKC, ORU, Omaha, St. Thomas) looks to join the WAC or MVC.

The Big Sky is far from bloated - it only has 10 members, plus 2 affiliates for football - but there's no guarantee they take Southern Utah and/or Utah Tech if they lose anyone to the Mountain West. I think ultimately they will simply because of so many conferences having gone to 18 or more games in basketball.

The conference has to want you. St Thomas could probably get an MVC ticket, ORU could probably find a ticket (WAC likes strong MBB), but UNO/UMKC would be in trouble.

None of them. MEAC is probably the closest but Howard aren't moving until that conference has stability in my opinion. I'm sure the conference has talked to other schools in D2.

People saying the Summit is the most laughable to me. At some point NDSU and SDSU will be in another conference and the league knows that but there are plenty of other options (including some in d1) for them when that does happen. ORU going to the WAC would be strange as that would be a lot more travel than they are doing currently and they could have a partner in the Summit very soon anyway. Going back to the Southland is a huge step down in competition. Not sure they want that either.

Denver doesn't have as many options as some people want to say. They are mostly a hockey and lacrosse school. Already have done the WAC once. Mountain West not a chance. They've actively said in the past they would rather not be in a conference with Northern Colorado so the Big Sky seems like a long shot. St Thomas will be in the MVC eventually. That's been obvious for a while but not for a few years still.

(06-04-2023 04:31 PM)Section 200 Wrote:  

(06-04-2023 02:09 PM)JSchmack Wrote:  None of those.

I don't think any will really die because there's always going to be schools with no upward mobility to get invited somewhere, and plenty of schools looking to move up to DI.

The WAC will be around with the cockroaches and Keith Richards when the world ends, because they'll be the "entry point" for all the move-up schools who try to meet the objectives required to move along the path to their ideal conference:
Whether it's Cal Baptist and Grand Canyon trying to get into the WCC
Or Cal State Bakersfield trying to get into the Big West.
Or New Mexico State trying to get into the Mountain West.

I agree with the upward mobility comment - the top of Division 1 needs to find a way to stop the upward mobility. Since a closed league is unlikely due to anti-trust concerns, the top schools need to create hard requirements on scholarships such as funding all scholarships at 100% to force the Teams that can't afford it to drop down a level. Ultimately that will make a stronger system. Its crazy that we have 350+ Division 1 basketball schools - way too many. I'd be happy with 100 schools for basketball and 70 schools for football or numbers in that range.

Nah, cutting out schools would cut out some schools that they would have added later. The unequal money in football from D1 is also a problem. A lot of these schools are jumping through hurdles to make it to be there to be part of the P5 especially FCS schools.

(06-04-2023 10:06 PM)Bobcat2013 Wrote:  

(06-04-2023 09:28 PM)Gemofthehills Wrote:  SBC or MWC

I know you don't like us but come on....

Your chance of dying, and MWC, are about the same as CUSA, PAC, AAC or most likely any other conference who has one member left behind.

Just but up a BS reply like most on here.

Don't really get the PAC votes. Worst case scenario for the PAC is that they end up with all the MWC teams. Either way, the PAC would still stand.

(06-05-2023 07:40 AM)CoastalJuan Wrote:  Don't really get the PAC votes. Worst case scenario for the PAC is that they end up with all the MWC teams. Either way, the PAC would still stand.

Big 12 fans are obsessed with killing the Pac-12. Not sure if it's like that in real life, but definitely the case here.

Die or ...

Be dismantled by external forces --> PAC, then WAC
Be dismantled by internal forces --> Summit, then ACC

We know the lurking "B1G" woes of the PAC; WAC would be a downstream effect.
Summit has membership/sport sponsorship issues; the ACC has the SECret 7.

FBS?

More than likely the Mountain West.

If we look at history, FBS conferences in the West have been consolidating since 2000. It started with the Big West then the WAC and there’ll be room for only one Western conference. The Pac-12 still has the name and “prestige” so they’ll be the surviving conference even if it’s going to be Oregon State and Washington State with a bunch of MWC schools. There’s not that many options out West for FCS schools to move up and the question is which school(s) will get the Idaho and NMSU treatment.

Unlike the Big West and WAC, I don’t see the MWC surviving as a basketball/Olympic sports conference.

There are so any conferences that could have/should have folded over the years & yet haven't, so I'd be shocked if any ever do. It would take a major change to D1 athletics & college sports as a whole for any to ever die so long as there are money & autobids attached.

Yeah I didn't really thinking about FCS being Div 1. If we're talking FBS:

If the FBS ever makes changes to legislation that raises the minimum bar required to be "FBS", then the logical pick would be CUSA. The MWC has a lot to lose before it's in CUSA's boat, or even the SBC's or MAC's boat.

(06-04-2023 11:26 PM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote:  

(06-04-2023 10:07 PM)chargeradio Wrote:  

(06-04-2023 09:19 PM)Mav Wrote:  I honestly think the Summit's in a bit of trouble and can see a scenario where enough dominos fall out west that they lose Denver to the WCC.

I'm not sold that the WCC takes Denver, as they seem to like using travel partners, but if they do, that allows the Summit to add schools Denver saw as toxic like Grand Canyon and Utah Valley. If adding football becomes a matter of survival for the Summit, they could add Southern Utah, Utah Tech, Northern Colorado, and Abilene Christian. Of course the reverse can also happen, with South Dakota and North Dakota headed to the WAC.

I suspect if the Dakota four and Denver are out, the rest of the Summit (UMKC, ORU, Omaha, St. Thomas) looks to join the WAC or MVC.

The Big Sky is far from bloated - it only has 10 members, plus 2 affiliates for football - but there's no guarantee they take Southern Utah and/or Utah Tech if they lose anyone to the Mountain West. I think ultimately they will simply because of so many conferences having gone to 18 or more games in basketball.

The conference has to want you. St Thomas could probably get an MVC ticket, ORU could probably find a ticket (WAC likes strong MBB), but UNO/UMKC would be in trouble.

Can St. Thomas move before the end of their transition? It seems unlikely they'd want to - they still need to raise another $45 million for the hockey/baseball stadium (as of late March) and then another $50 million for the new baseball/softball complex. That should occupy them for a while.

If worst comes to worst, I'm sure they could jump to the Horizon. But tbh, I'm skeptical that the Summit is in any real trouble. It's not like there are many places for the Dakotas/UMKC/UNO to go.

The only things that might die are the MEAC and the WAC/A-Sun football league. And I suspect if the latter is about to die, the A-Sun will be on the horn with West Georgia, Valdosta State, etc.

...the BigSky is STOUT, y'all...

(06-05-2023 09:32 AM)CoastalJuan Wrote:  Yeah I didn't really thinking about FCS being Div 1. If we're talking FBS:

If the FBS ever makes changes to legislation that raises the minimum bar required to be "FBS", then the logical pick would be CUSA. The MWC has a lot to lose before it's in CUSA's boat, or even the SBC's or MAC's boat.

There are a lot of FCS schools that are at the level as the best of the G5 would still come up. With them having the stadium size, upgrading facilities, FCOAs, etc would fill in spots good.

North Dakota State
South Dakota State
Missouri State
Youngstown State
EKU
Tarleton State
UCA
North Alabama
SFAU
ACU
McNeese State
Northern Iowa
Montana
Montana State
Tennessee State
North Carolina A&T
Delaware
Chattanooga
Towson
Utah Tech in a way
Central Oklahoma
Stony Brook

All have plans in place. They have upgraded their facilities and plans to upgrade.

(06-05-2023 09:32 AM)CoastalJuan Wrote:  Yeah I didn't really thinking about FCS being Div 1. If we're talking FBS:

If the FBS ever makes changes to legislation that raises the minimum bar required to be "FBS", then the logical pick would be CUSA. The MWC has a lot to lose before it's in CUSA's boat, or even the SBC's or MAC's boat.

Unlike C-USA, the MWC has a very limited choice of regional FCS schools willing to move up to FBS. Sure, there’s the Montana and Dakota schools but they won’t move up in a MWC that it’s in danger to exist as a FBS conference. Theres a precedence and it’s the reason why the WAC died as a football conference a decade ago….the Montana schools along with other Big Sky schools said no to Karl Benson. UTSA and Texas State had to find a home ASAP and they were lucky C-USA and the Sun Belt took them respectively.

UTEP and NMSU are available but the question remains the same. Would adding those two guarantee any chances of survival? I just can’t see the MWC surviving a full raid by a diluted Pac-12.

(06-05-2023 09:32 AM)CoastalJuan Wrote:  Yeah I didn't really thinking about FCS being Div 1. If we're talking FBS:

If the FBS ever makes changes to legislation that raises the minimum bar required to be "FBS", then the logical pick would be CUSA. The MWC has a lot to lose before it's in CUSA's boat, or even the SBC's or MAC's boat.

How is CUSA is a worse situation than the SBC or MAC? The teams are more desirable and will be picked off? If CUSA is so bad why would anyone want the teams which will be a requirement for it to die. The media deals arent valuable enough between any of the SBC, MAC or CUSA to pay exit fees. As with the last round the conference with desirable teams is the most likely to die.

Tell me which teams will be offered a real step up and it would easier to write the obituary.

(06-05-2023 02:10 PM)UTEPDallas Wrote:  

(06-05-2023 09:32 AM)CoastalJuan Wrote:  Yeah I didn't really thinking about FCS being Div 1. If we're talking FBS:

If the FBS ever makes changes to legislation that raises the minimum bar required to be "FBS", then the logical pick would be CUSA. The MWC has a lot to lose before it's in CUSA's boat, or even the SBC's or MAC's boat.

Unlike C-USA, the MWC has a very limited choice of regional FCS schools willing to move up to FBS. Sure, there’s the Montana and Dakota schools but they won’t move up in a MWC that it’s in danger to exist as a FBS conference. Theres a precedence and it’s the reason why the WAC died as a football conference a decade ago….the Montana schools along with other Big Sky schools said no to Karl Benson. UTSA and Texas State had to find a home ASAP and they were lucky C-USA and the Sun Belt took them respectively.

UTEP and NMSU are available but the question remains the same. Would adding those two guarantee any chances of survival? I just can’t see the MWC surviving a full raid by a diluted Pac-12.

A lot of it comes down to how fast the Pac-12, and in turn, the Mountain West, get picked apart. If the Pac-12 goes from 10 to 4 or even 2 in a month's time or less, it may be easier to just do a full-on merger and become the Pac-14 or Pac-16.

If the Pac-12 adds someone immediately in the wake of each departure, it's possible the Mountain West can buy time to reload. There are certainly enough schools in the WAC that want to move to FBS. Someone will want to stick around long enough to collect the exit fees.

The best case for the Mountain West would be to rebuild around Wyoming, Air Force, and New Mexico. They can go one time zone in either direction without travel really being an issue. The worst case would be getting stuck with two teams on opposite ends of the footprint like Wyoming and San Jose State.

One thing to remember is that the playoff exists now, and there is a real access path for any conference who is part of the CFP. That wasn't the case for the WAC in 2011-2012.