(06-05-2023 11:37 AM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  

(06-05-2023 05:08 AM)XLance Wrote:  Let's just see what could be the end result could be with a 24 team conference that some are prone to promote:

The 7 move to the B1G

UVa, VT, Carolina, NCSU, Clemson, Florida State, Miami,, Maryland
Rutgers, Penn State, Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State, Indiana, Purdue, Notre Dame*
UCLA, USC, Nebraska, Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Northwestern, Illinois.

* proposed


The same 7 placed in the SEC

UVa, VT, Carolina, NCSU, Clemson, Florida State, Miami, South Carolina
Florida, Georgia, Tennessee, Kentucky, Auburn, Alabama, Vanderbilt, Mississippi State
Texas, Texas A&M, Oklahoma, Missouri, Arkansas, LSU, Ole Miss, Kansas*

*proposed


Those 7 enhance either league and would create permanent superiority.
That could be considered to be quite a bit of leverage.

Those 7 without ND to either conference would be dilutive, or, at the VERY best, pro rata. All they would do would be to ACC-ify either the B1G or SEC, diluting everyone else's votes significantly.

The SEC might have other reasons to want them in addition to money, however. They would provide us with a significant academics boost with 3 AAU schools and 4 more that are very strong, and they'd give us a complete block on potential B1G incursions into the South. They would all fit very well culturally with the SEC.

The B1G would have other reasons to NOT want to add all 7. 4 of the 7 aren't AAU, requiring a significant relaxation of current Academic standards. How does that impact the BTAA? Also, they're all culturally very different from the typical B1G school. Bring in those 7 + USCLA over a few years and schools like Indiana, Purdue, and Wisconsin have just seen the value of their votes significantly diluted, and there's no guarantee that any of the new schools would see eye to eye with them on issues of import to the Conference.

The B1G would be more apt to grab a bunch of Pac schools b/c of Academic/cultural Fit. I could see a 24/24 move looking like this:

S7 + Kansas - SEC
All 8 AAU from Pac - B1G

If the B1G whiffs on the M7, they better pray the SEC doesn't have designs on being the eventual S1.

(06-05-2023 11:47 AM)GarnetAndBlue Wrote:  

(06-05-2023 11:37 AM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  

(06-05-2023 05:08 AM)XLance Wrote:  Let's just see what could be the end result could be with a 24 team conference that some are prone to promote:

The 7 move to the B1G

UVa, VT, Carolina, NCSU, Clemson, Florida State, Miami,, Maryland
Rutgers, Penn State, Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State, Indiana, Purdue, Notre Dame*
UCLA, USC, Nebraska, Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Northwestern, Illinois.

* proposed


The same 7 placed in the SEC

UVa, VT, Carolina, NCSU, Clemson, Florida State, Miami, South Carolina
Florida, Georgia, Tennessee, Kentucky, Auburn, Alabama, Vanderbilt, Mississippi State
Texas, Texas A&M, Oklahoma, Missouri, Arkansas, LSU, Ole Miss, Kansas*

*proposed


Those 7 enhance either league and would create permanent superiority.
That could be considered to be quite a bit of leverage.

Those 7 without ND to either conference would be dilutive, or, at the VERY best, pro rata. All they would do would be to ACC-ify either the B1G or SEC, diluting everyone else's votes significantly.

The SEC might have other reasons to want them in addition to money, however. They would provide us with a significant academics boost with 3 AAU schools and 4 more that are very strong, and they'd give us a complete block on potential B1G incursions into the South. They would all fit very well culturally with the SEC.

The B1G would have other reasons to NOT want to add all 7. 4 of the 7 aren't AAU, requiring a significant relaxation of current Academic standards. How does that impact the BTAA? Also, they're all culturally very different from the typical B1G school. Bring in those 7 + USCLA over a few years and schools like Indiana, Purdue, and Wisconsin have just seen the value of their votes significantly diluted, and there's no guarantee that any of the new schools would see eye to eye with them on issues of import to the Conference.

The B1G would be more apt to grab a bunch of Pac schools b/c of Academic/cultural Fit. I could see a 24/24 move looking like this:

S7 + Kansas - SEC
All 8 AAU from Pac - B1G

If the B1G whiffs on the M7, they better pray the SEC doesn't have designs on being the eventual S1.

B1G could maintain status quo with some Pac schools + ND, though the SEC would probably work very hard to make it easy for ND to remain independent and block the B1G from grabbing them. If you'd asked me a few days, I'd have said that we want to create an S1. Now? We can't even figure out if we want 8 or 9 games with 14 schools. Double that number and it will be impossibly unwieldy. We'll lose much of what makes the SEC unique and special. It's possible that we will have to move in that direction, and, if so, I'd prefer that we raid the B1G instead of vice versa. However, I think it's more likely that some sort of merger or the oft-mentioned "breakaway" is our end game.

M7 controls, the fate of CFB
BIG with western expansion pins SEC in a corner, with 3 networks behind it

(06-05-2023 12:10 PM)templefootballfan Wrote:  M7 controls, the fate of CFB
BIG with western expansion pins SEC in a corner, with 3 networks behind it

2 on an island is not Westward expansion. Westward expansion means taking schools from arguably the 5th strongest of the P5. Poorest viewership, poorest revenue and 4th worst attendance. Have at it.

The SEC grew from the third strongest conference and with 3 top brands and a school which owns its state, Missouri.

To say the Big 10 is using 3 networks is true, but not quite what it seems. They apparently don't have the details worked out with NBC, and should NBC lose the N.D. contract to ESPN it will be a pyrrhic victory for the Big 10. NBC will want more of them, but Notre Dame will be off the table. With N.D. off the table the Big 10 will need more inventory to keep CBS, NBC, and FOX happy and they will have only a couple of nationally recognized brands with which to do it, Oregon and Washington. None of the others really bring national interest.

Then there is the issue of ABC & ESPN controlling the ACC rights until 2036. If there is any movement or merger prior to that date it will very likely be within the ESPN field of influence.

The SEC is regional, but regional with extremely strong brands. It can market two time slots on ABC, T2 over 3 ESPN channels, and T3 through the SECN. The exposure and time slots are only off by 1 from the Big 10 with 3 networks, and the branding is superior for the SEC in those time slots. To play catch up the Big 10 has to expand. But if it expands by just markets it will have cohesion issues and if it doesn't get solid Southeastern brands, and the SEC will have a lot to say about that, it can't catch up even with the market approach.

ESPN has leveled off, their not gonna be able to pay ND 75M yr or have spot to put them, especially with that sch they been playing lately.
NBC resigns ND with the understanding they play more BIG & Pac schools, all 3 networks work together thru Fox.

[1st step, Wash, Org, Stanford, ASU]
Ratings will improve with better time slots, BIG fans & CFP interest.
just being involved with BIG will elevate Pac schools
between 3 networks BIG has just as many slots avaiable, 8 OTA

as for ACC, only Va & UNC are locks
FSU, Mia, Clemson are in good spots, but no guarantees
VT & NCST should be real carefull, things don't go right, their in B-12
4 schools leave in '30, exit fee's will total 4.5B dollars
7 duds are voting to disolve nothing
nor are they letting ESPN slip out 4 schools & replace them wilh Conn, Temple, Buffalo, USF & hurt their brand forever.

couple yrs ago I tought SEC was king of the hill, Warren fliped that boat
Warren had same foresight Kramer did

(06-05-2023 10:53 PM)templefootballfan Wrote:  ESPN has leveled off, their not gonna be able to pay ND 75M yr or have spot to put them, especially with that sch they been playing lately.
NBC resigns ND with the understanding they play more BIG & Pac schools, all 3 networks work together thru Fox.

[1st step, Wash, Org, Stanford, ASU]
Ratings will improve with better time slots, BIG fans & CFP interest.
just being involved with BIG will elevate Pac schools
between 3 networks BIG has just as many slots avaiable, 8 OTA

as for ACC, only Va & UNC are locks
FSU, Mia, Clemson are in good spots, but no guarantees
VT & NCST should be real carefull, things don't go right, their in B-12
4 schools leave in '30, exit fee's will total 4.5B dollars
7 duds are voting to disolve nothing
nor are they letting ESPN slip out 4 schools & replace them wilh Conn, Temple, Buffalo, USF & hurt their brand forever.

couple yrs ago I tought SEC was king of the hill, Warren fliped that boat
Warren had same foresight Kramer did

Warren did flip the boat, it capsized! You have a sort of deal with NBC which didn't work out, you had 3-4 schools in discussions with the SEC because of the aborted COVID Season, and he added a pair and couldn't follow up with Oregon and Washington. The Big 10 is 3 billion dollars behind the SEC now in valuation and Notre Dame, which is far from certain for the Big 10 is the only add valued over 600,000,000 at 928,000,000. Washington and Kansas are 500,000,000 each. Add all three and you are still over 1 billion behind.

ESPN has a great shot at landing N.D. and won't give up a single school to the Big 10 or FOX. If you don't clean up your mess on the West Coast you'll have nothing going for you anywhere else because all trust will be gone. You gutted one ally and lied to the other about scheduling.

It's a cluster of a mess in the Big Ten right now and ESPN still has far deeper pockets than CBS or NBC, or FOX for that matter. So, I don't accept your assessment but will revisit your prediction when it is done and if you were right I'll say so. IF you weren't I'll say so.