Many have mentioned that UConn would hurt the pro-rata TV deal for the Big 12 should they be invited if Pac-12 schools don't make the plunge. But what really is UConn worth?

Here is my math:

UConn currently gets around 4 million per year from the Big East and 500k from football.

Some would say they are worth 4.5 million. But I would argue they are worth a whole lot more to the Big 12.

Firstly, the Big East contract was created before UConn joined the league. The league is expected to get a bump to anywhere between 6-10 million per year. My guess: 7 million per year (a conservative estimate).

Secondly, not everyone is worth the same. UConn is the most valuable program in the Big East (Nova is 2nd). Seeing how USC/UCLA were worth 40% of the Pac-12, one can assume a similar dynamic in the Big East (with one less school).

I would argue the split is somewhere near 23/17 UConn/Nova as the former also has an excellent women's basketball program.

23% of 77 million is around 17 million.

To the football side, UConn only gets paid for its home games. It also plays a hybrid P5/G5 schedule. In a P5 league, it would be playing a P5 schedule. For those reasons alone, I believe their football would be worth about 3-5 million: let's settle at 4 million.

That totals to 21 million (10+ million shy of the rest of the Big 12).

What do you think?

(05-29-2023 07:22 PM)shizzle787 Wrote:  Many have mentioned that UConn would hurt the pro-rata TV deal for the Big 12 should they be invited if Pac-12 schools don't make the plunge. But what really is UConn worth?

Here is my math:

UConn currently gets around 4 million per year from the Big East and 500k from football.

Some would say they are worth 4.5 million. But I would argue they are worth a whole lot more to the Big 12.

Firstly, the Big East contract was created before UConn joined the league. The league is expected to get a bump to anywhere between 6-10 million per year. My guess: 7 million per year (a conservative estimate).

Secondly, not everyone is worth the same. UConn is the most valuable program in the Big East (Nova is 2nd). Seeing how USC/UCLA were worth 40% of the Pac-12, one can assume a similar dynamic in the Big East (with one less school).

I would argue the split is somewhere near 23/17 UConn/Nova as the former also has an excellent women's basketball program.

23% of 77 million is around 17 million.

To the football side, UConn only gets paid for its home games. It also plays a hybrid P5/G5 schedule. In a P5 league, it would be playing a P5 schedule. For those reasons alone, I believe their football would be worth about 3-5 million: let's settle at 4 million.

That totals to 21 million (10+ million shy of the rest of the Big 12).

What do you think?

As a brand, I do not see any math that could be done for UCONN to reach a $32m valuation from ESPN/Fox. The only way I could see networks add UCONN pro rata is if B12 exposure to NYC market substantially increases viewership across the conference. I don't see that happening at all, but I do think once could make a very slim argument where UCONN could be added pro rata.

I wanted to vote $15m, not $15-19.99m. So, roughly a 1/2 share of current big 12. However, there's no rush on UConn. The big 12 has plenty of top basketball schools, and UConn will still be available in a year or a decade if they needs a new g5 callup.

How much are the TV rights for UConn worth? Whatever ESPN and Fox will pay for them.

My suspicion is that UConn is in that "B" option category. But I can see the logic in adding UConn after already securing fully funded Colorado and Arizona (pro rata clause) and perhaps Gonzaga who are likely break even cost for the Big 12 but help elevate an already strong basketball side. Yormack is clearly trying to package the National Champion men's basketball team along with market access to New England to boost the reach of the Big 12. There is a certain multiplier if you can convert even a slice of the NYC and New England audiences to the product. I don't know if UConn alone is enough to truly get that market, but they should bring substantial value to ESPN and Fox. Maybe not the full $30.7M of the current 12-member package, but likely enough that other schools would only lose a small sliver to make UConn whole, or to bring UConn in at initially a somewhat reduced level (say $20-24M range) for this cycle. That's probably $5-10M more than the level they can bring SDSU or UNLV in at. Meaning it would cost the other schools much less if they wanted to bring them in as full media rate members.

That all said, Colorado and Arizona maybe be the play, perhaps ASU and Gonzaga as #3 and #4; meaning all are fully funded by the pro rata clause, and Gonzaga likely getting their share paid by the networks. UConn is a bit of a long shot, just like San Diego State and UNLV. I doubt things have progressed much beyond the "we have talked" stage, and most likely won't ever get passed that point.

In its Form 990 filing for the 2020-2021 academic/fiscal year, the Big East told the IRS that it had $34,486,583 of media revenue and it distributed $3,040,423 total to a "University of Connecticut" at 352 Mansfield Road, Storrs.

No two members got the same distribution - tops was Villanova at $4,544,265, with Creighton and Georgetown both topping four million, then a dropoff to Marquette at $3.4 million. So in that first year, UConn was probably not getting tourney shares from before it's time, maybe paying back an entry fee loan from the Big East. However, looking back, distributions ranged from $4.45-$5.16 million 2019-2020 and $3.92-$5.37 million 2018-2019 and $3.19-$6.22 million 2017-2018.

That media number doesn't look like much though, does it? July 2020 - June 2021, COVID disruption wasn't much for a non-football league (as opposed to the 2019-2020 year failing to deliver conference tournaments to media partners). Hmmmm...
Looks like a nice 5% escalator from the previous year's $32,717,708. But that previous year TV basketball WAS disrupted by COVID. And wasn't I told there was a BIG increase from Fox when UConn came aboard? An escalator PLUS the big UConn bonus should be much more, right?

Hmmm...what do the last 6 years of media revenue the Big East declared to the U.S. Federal Government show us?
2020-21 $34,486,583
2019-20 $32,717,708
2018-19 $36,652,954
2017-18 $35,342,356
2016-17 $34,068,819
2015-16 $32,805,258

Looks like there was a dropoff, probably global pandemic related, and the impact then carried out another year.
Looking at the four years before that....those four show a 3.7% increase each year. So the media money UConn's first year should have shown an escalation to $39.4 milion, and THEN a pro rata increase to $43.4 million. I hope that the next numbers we see -- for 2021-2022 -- show up as just under $45 million for the Big East.
That will be (hopefully) $4.1 million per school for media money, in year 9 of the 12 year deal. (Looking at that 2018-19 number, in the middle of a straight-line escalation deal makes the whole media thing look like under $4 million average annual value, like the original was "12 years close to $500 million")

UConn's distribution from the Big East WILL jump up significantly. Those unequal distributions and Villanova always being on top, one year almost double a conference mate's distribution, tells me that Big East tourney credit sharing has an eat-what-you-kill aspect. Which is cool - but when that increase comes, let's be sure not to mis-attribute it to TV value, mmmkay?

I am SOLIDLY with you that UConn football is worth about $500k per year to media partners.

...I hit the low 20s range... a bit more than 'half share', noting that bball drives the bus at UCONN... now, how this works if Yormark is indeed going to do the 'separate bball media package', I don't know... I'd figure these would be a true 'half share' of the 31-ish, thus in the 16mil range per bball only team - maybe inching into the upper teens for UCONN and the Zags...

Not enough, I don't think UConn is a realistic addition until things shake out with potential PAC and ACC additions.

(05-30-2023 03:21 PM)UCbball21 Wrote:  Not enough, I don't think UConn is a realistic addition until things shake out with potential PAC and ACC additions.

Ditto. Until our new Atlantic Division is otherwise fully populated.

Unless MBB and WBB become deregulated and worth much bigger dinero.

(05-29-2023 07:22 PM)shizzle787 Wrote:  Many have mentioned that UConn would hurt the pro-rata TV deal for the Big 12 should they be invited if Pac-12 schools don't make the plunge. But what really is UConn worth?

Here is my math:

UConn currently gets around 4 million per year from the Big East and 500k from football.

Some would say they are worth 4.5 million. But I would argue they are worth a whole lot more to the Big 12.

Firstly, the Big East contract was created before UConn joined the league. The league is expected to get a bump to anywhere between 6-10 million per year. My guess: 7 million per year (a conservative estimate).

Secondly, not everyone is worth the same. UConn is the most valuable program in the Big East (Nova is 2nd). Seeing how USC/UCLA were worth 40% of the Pac-12, one can assume a similar dynamic in the Big East (with one less school).

I would argue the split is somewhere near 23/17 UConn/Nova as the former also has an excellent women's basketball program.

23% of 77 million is around 17 million.

To the football side, UConn only gets paid for its home games. It also plays a hybrid P5/G5 schedule. In a P5 league, it would be playing a P5 schedule. For those reasons alone, I believe their football would be worth about 3-5 million: let's settle at 4 million.

That totals to 21 million (10+ million shy of the rest of the Big 12).

What do you think?

Their football home games per SBJ are worth 500k a year. They'd increase in the Big 12 (better schedules and buying a league instead of just one school reduces risk to broadcaster of getting stuck with weak games) but how much is unlikely to skyrocket.

...BTW, Monty is at it again in a somewhat related issue - dude REALLY gets over the skis in his 'headlines' :

if Hous, Cln, UCF media value went up 3.5 times in B-12
why wouldn't Conn jump 3.5 times to 21M
that would be 14M to ESPN & 7M to Fox
both networks take that deal

I don't think UConn is worth much more than any other Big East school. I don't think the Big East got a raise from FOX when they added UConn, and I don't think.

Also, I think UConn hoops would be worth less in the nB12 than in the Big East, because the schedule would be less interesting. In the Big East, UConn plays a lot of rivals. But who wants to see UConn vs Iowa State, UConn vs UCF, UConn vs TCU, etc. etc.

So I don't think UConn is worth more than say $7m a year, which is what I expect the Big East will get in their next TV deal.

UConn is worth more to the ACC than the B12. The ACC needs a couple more punching bags in FB to beef up the records of the top 3-4 teams. Also, their MBB and WBB is what it is and would help the ACC.

Weakening the BE and taking a player out of the picture of the B12 would also be valuable to the ACC.

The ACC could offer UConn a partial share (let's say $10-12 million) and make the rest of the share available to the top performers in their new distribution model.

There are no negative number options.

(05-30-2023 03:52 PM)templefootballfan Wrote:  if Hous, Cln, UCF media value went up 3.5 times in B-12
why wouldn't Conn jump 3.5 times to 21M
that would be 14M to ESPN & 7M to Fox
both networks take that deal

In both cases you'd be wrong... the 3 AAC schools likely were worth significantly more than the average media payout from the AAC. On the other hand, they likely are not worth $31M each, but it averages out to that in the B12.

So if UConn to the Big 12 is a bump up in payout, how would it be if UConn,Villanova,St.John’s,Georgetown,Marquette, DePaul moved Their Olympic sports into the ACC as the absolute best basketball conference ever? Would not effect the Football schedule unless UConn, Memphis were added too as all sports. Fantasy, but Basketball does have a major following every year. ESPN taking away from Fox it’s top BB programs should be an additional bump up in conference pay

I'd give them $15M if it guaranteed me they would close down their football program.

(05-30-2023 03:52 PM)templefootballfan Wrote:  if Hous, Cln, UCF media value went up 3.5 times in B-12
why wouldn't Conn jump 3.5 times to 21M
that would be 14M to ESPN & 7M to Fox
both networks take that deal

You can't compare the AAC3 with UCONN...

Houston = Good FB and good BB - Texas is football crazy
Cincinnati = Good FB and good BB - B10 Country is football crazy
UCF = Good FB decent BB - Florida is football crazy

UCONN = Good BB terrible FB - New England likes Hockey