(05-31-2023 03:53 PM)Aztecgolfer Wrote:  

(05-31-2023 03:15 PM)RUScarlets Wrote:  

(05-31-2023 02:55 PM)Aztecgolfer Wrote:  And it is quite likely they are not at full shares initially. Utah took 3 years to achieve that.

You should be excited to be the leader in the one true western FBS conference when this PAC thing pukes and the MWC is the last man standing. King of the WEST!... I'll watch a few ball games for the first half at least.

Or it doesn't, the conference stays together, adds SDSU and we reap the benefits of being at an elevated status.

Would expect to have more than one winning football season in the first 8 years. BB will likely win at least one conference championship during that time.

Honestly, I doubt SDSU would win a single conference title in their first eight years. Certainly possible, but I would bet against it.

(05-31-2023 06:30 PM)TeamRamRod1 Wrote:  If they only lose Colorado I think they add San Diego State, SMU, and either UNLV or Colorado State.

If they lose Colorado and one other 4C school then they probably add all of SDSU, SMU, UNLV, and Colorado State.

If they lose all 4C schools they probably lose San Diego State to the Big 12 as well. They backfill with Colorado State, SMU, UNLV, and some combo of Fresno State/Utah State/Rice/Tulane.

There are only two acceptable schools-SDSU and SMU.

They don't like Boise and Fresno because of academics (probably the only two acceptable to the TV networks). Rice doesn't win enough. Tulane is too far away. CSU, UNM and Hawaii have no fan support and don't win enough. The rest of the MWC isn't close to meeting their academic bar (excluding Air Force who simply doesn't fit in a P5) and aren't great at winning.

If they lose the 4 corners, do they add SDSU and SMU and stop at 8?

(05-31-2023 07:31 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(05-31-2023 06:30 PM)TeamRamRod1 Wrote:  If they only lose Colorado I think they add San Diego State, SMU, and either UNLV or Colorado State.

If they lose Colorado and one other 4C school then they probably add all of SDSU, SMU, UNLV, and Colorado State.

If they lose all 4C schools they probably lose San Diego State to the Big 12 as well. They backfill with Colorado State, SMU, UNLV, and some combo of Fresno State/Utah State/Rice/Tulane.

There are only two acceptable schools-SDSU and SMU.

They don't like Boise and Fresno because of academics (probably the only two acceptable to the TV networks). Rice doesn't win enough. Tulane is too far away. CSU, UNM and Hawaii have no fan support and don't win enough. The rest of the MWC isn't close to meeting their academic bar (excluding Air Force who simply doesn't fit in a P5) and aren't great at winning.

If they lose the 4 corners, do they add SDSU and SMU and stop at 8?

They may have to. It's that or just adding teams to add teams. I fully agree the PAC has very few options. San Diego State and SMU are the only options that would elevate as programs by being in a P5. UNLV would still suck at everything even with SEC money.

(05-31-2023 03:57 PM)Soobahk40050 Wrote:  

(05-31-2023 04:15 AM)Utgrizfan Wrote:  

(05-30-2023 11:13 PM)Skyhawk Wrote:  [quote='Skyhawk' pid='18958322' dateline='1685506401']
"What happens next if Colorado announces for the Big 12 this week?"

Well, if they're smart, the PAC then immediately accepts SDSU as a replacement.

If they do, they "might" keep the AZ schools.

If they don't, there's a decent chance that the AZ schools and SDSU follow Colorado to the Big12.

And following that -

If they do, then the B12 can also add that list of UNLV, Memphis, and either USF or Tulane, for 16.

If they don't, then they just add all 4 for 20.

UConn and Gonzaga may be possibilities as well.

According to the MWC Forum both Arizonas value SOCAL heavily due to the large number of students they get from there and honestly this scenario doesn't seem far fetched at all.

As mentioned SDSU is an upgrade in both terms of Market and overall Athletics which may even help with the TV deal. If not they could go for 2 more schools my picks being Fresno State and CSU if they'd add value.

The Big 12 could just take Colorado, Arizona/ASU, Utah and SDSU + 1 more from WSU/OSU/Boise/Fresno/etc (as well as Gonzaga). Going to 18 wouldn't stop them from getting several of the ACC leftovers later and or having room for Memphis/USF, etc at 24.

If that happened, then, from the reports of Yormark's priorities, I would guess that the +1 would be UNLV or Memphis.

But I still question whether Utah moves, even if the rest of the 3Cs move.

If Colorado joins the Big12, and if the AZ schools follow, with SDSU, that's 16 schools.

The next 2 or 4 are questionable. As I mentioned, there's reporting that the next 2 would likely be UNLV and Memphis.

Setting aside the UConn and Gonzaga question (which is a whole other discussion), then it just gets into us guessing what we think would be best.

Reporting from some time ago had the B12 having Boise State, USF, Memphis, and SMU as their short list. I don't know if any of those schools (besides Memphis) is still in the running. And there have been reports that there has been talk with Fresno State, as well. And then apparently Colorado State is a possible option as well.

But I think pairing USF with UCF for travel reasons (similar to pairing USC/UCLA), seems like a decent idea.

And, though I don't recall seeing it listed on any reporting out of the Big12, several commenters have brought up Tulane, and I think that that would be a decent idea. there would be several AAU schools incoming in this scenario, and I think they might be happier with one more. Plus it gives Memphis somewhat of a rival, and also another travel "stepping stone" towards the Florida schools.

Anyway, I think that pretty much lists all the schools that are apparently "in the running".

If I was handed the magic wand and got to pick my choices for the Big12 (and only if we're presuming the Big10 (or other conferences) do not try to add anyone), then for whatever it's worth, I think I'd select these:

Colorado, Memphis, Tulane, and USF

And then the Big12 would look something like this:

Big16
BYU, Colorado, Iowa state, Kansas, Kansas state
Baylor, Houston, OK state, TCU, Texas Tech
Cincinnati, Memphis, Tulane, WV
UCF, USF

Now, the powers-that-be in the Big12 seem interested in UNLV and SDSU. I would pair them with Fresno State for more California coverage. And to go to 20, I'd add SMU.

SMU is - among other reasons - simply because I think the Texas teams would want to shore up their in-conference voting bloc.

And if, in the future, we want to go 4 more, this is where we can add AZ, AZ State, Utah, and Boise State.

And 4 more - the 4 WA and OR schools.

And 4 more - Pittsburgh, Louisville, Syracuse, and UConn.

That's 32.

(and still leaves 8 or so ACC schools for the P2 to fight over : )

The Big32
AZ, AZ state, Boise State, BYU, Fresno State, SDSU, UNLV, Utah
Oregon, Oregon state, Washington, Washington state
Colorado, Iowa state, Kansas, Kansas state
Baylor, Houston, OK state, SMU, TCU, Texas Tech
Cincinnati, Louisville, Memphis, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Tulane, UConn, WV
UCF, USF

That looks like a fun conference : )

(05-31-2023 07:31 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(05-31-2023 06:30 PM)TeamRamRod1 Wrote:  If they only lose Colorado I think they add San Diego State, SMU, and either UNLV or Colorado State.

If they lose Colorado and one other 4C school then they probably add all of SDSU, SMU, UNLV, and Colorado State.

If they lose all 4C schools they probably lose San Diego State to the Big 12 as well. They backfill with Colorado State, SMU, UNLV, and some combo of Fresno State/Utah State/Rice/Tulane.

There are only two acceptable schools-SDSU and SMU.

They don't like Boise and Fresno because of academics (probably the only two acceptable to the TV networks). Rice doesn't win enough. Tulane is too far away. CSU, UNM and Hawaii have no fan support and don't win enough. The rest of the MWC isn't close to meeting their academic bar (excluding Air Force who simply doesn't fit in a P5) and aren't great at winning.

If they lose the 4 corners, do they add SDSU and SMU and stop at 8?

If they lose all 4C, and the Big10 doesn't step up, I don't think backfill happens, I think mass exodus does.

I'd watch for the WA and OR schools heading to the Big12.

I think WA could handle being in the same conference with BYU et al. I'd be surprised if Cal would.

If they do try to backfill, I think the best option could be to add a few non-football AAU schools from the BigWest, along with SDSU. Hawaii brings other benefits, and so could be a decent football-only option.

That should be enough to keep the conference going.

Will Colorado affect the potential media deal substantially? If not, then the Pac 9 actually might end up with a larger payout than if the Buffs remain in the conference.

(05-31-2023 09:10 PM)esayem Wrote:  Will Colorado affect the potential media deal substantially? If not, then the Pac 9 actually might end up with a larger payout than if the Buffs remain in the conference.

Losing the Denver DMA gotta hurt.

(05-31-2023 09:52 PM)PlayBall! Wrote:  

(05-31-2023 09:10 PM)esayem Wrote:  Will Colorado affect the potential media deal substantially? If not, then the Pac 9 actually might end up with a larger payout than if the Buffs remain in the conference.

Losing the Denver DMA gotta hurt.

If it does, plug in Air Force. Easy fix. Not too far away and their fan base is national. Stadium only holds a few thousand less.

(05-31-2023 09:52 PM)PlayBall! Wrote:  

(05-31-2023 09:10 PM)esayem Wrote:  Will Colorado affect the potential media deal substantially? If not, then the Pac 9 actually might end up with a larger payout than if the Buffs remain in the conference.

Losing the Denver DMA gotta hurt.

That poses an interesting question. I've lived in Denver for about 20 years. My parents have been here for about 25. If I went through my contacts and excluded family and friends from HS and college I'd guess 80% plus are not natives. If I extended that group to include my neighbors (~100 in my building most of whom I know) and my parent's neighborhood that probably holds true. The stats I've seen are over 60% here are not native.

So CU's potential fanbase isn't perhaps as large as the DMA/state size would suggest. But then Prime showed up and blew up all of the narratives surrounding Buffs football. The buzz is something I've never seen here (for college sports. Denver loves the Broncos and will bandwagon with the best of them for the other sports). The spring game sold out and was on ESPN. In the snow. I've been told that they sold out their season tickets but haven't heard confirmation. People that never talked about the Buffs are doing so months away from the first game.

I wonder if losing the Denver market might be a bigger deal than many of us, even those of us who could be called homers, would have expected a year ago?

(05-31-2023 10:07 PM)esayem Wrote:  

(05-31-2023 09:52 PM)PlayBall! Wrote:  

(05-31-2023 09:10 PM)esayem Wrote:  Will Colorado affect the potential media deal substantially? If not, then the Pac 9 actually might end up with a larger payout than if the Buffs remain in the conference.

Losing the Denver DMA gotta hurt.

If it does, plug in Air Force. Easy fix. Not too far away and their fan base is national. Stadium only holds a few thousand less.

AFA and CSU are about the same distance from Denver. Neither has much of a presence in the metro. AFA has a great stadium with a (lack of) alcohol problem. No clue about the situation up in Fort Collins.

EDIT- scratch that. AFA now allows alcohol. Good for them; maybe I'll go back.

(05-31-2023 08:33 PM)Skyhawk Wrote:  

(05-31-2023 07:31 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(05-31-2023 06:30 PM)TeamRamRod1 Wrote:  If they only lose Colorado I think they add San Diego State, SMU, and either UNLV or Colorado State.

If they lose Colorado and one other 4C school then they probably add all of SDSU, SMU, UNLV, and Colorado State.

If they lose all 4C schools they probably lose San Diego State to the Big 12 as well. They backfill with Colorado State, SMU, UNLV, and some combo of Fresno State/Utah State/Rice/Tulane.

There are only two acceptable schools-SDSU and SMU.

They don't like Boise and Fresno because of academics (probably the only two acceptable to the TV networks). Rice doesn't win enough. Tulane is too far away. CSU, UNM and Hawaii have no fan support and don't win enough. The rest of the MWC isn't close to meeting their academic bar (excluding Air Force who simply doesn't fit in a P5) and aren't great at winning.

If they lose the 4 corners, do they add SDSU and SMU and stop at 8?

If they lose all 4C, and the Big10 doesn't step up, I don't think backfill happens, I think mass exodus does.

I'd watch for the WA and OR schools heading to the Big12.

I think WA could handle being in the same conference with BYU et al. I'd be surprised if Cal would.

If they do try to backfill, I think the best option could be to add a few non-football AAU schools from the BigWest, along with SDSU. Hawaii brings other benefits, and so could be a decent football-only option.

That should be enough to keep the conference going.

Yeah once Colorado & Arizona schools bolt. PAC12 school are going to have major issues. If the BIG10 doesn't invite Washington & Oregon I could see them going to the BIG12. Maybe even with CAL & Stanford.

Utah needs to be very careful. The BIG12 has BYU, so they don't need Utah. SDSU, CAL, Stanford, Oregon St all could be more valuable to them.

(05-31-2023 10:39 PM)VCE Wrote:  

(05-31-2023 10:07 PM)esayem Wrote:  

(05-31-2023 09:52 PM)PlayBall! Wrote:  

(05-31-2023 09:10 PM)esayem Wrote:  Will Colorado affect the potential media deal substantially? If not, then the Pac 9 actually might end up with a larger payout than if the Buffs remain in the conference.

Losing the Denver DMA gotta hurt.

If it does, plug in Air Force. Easy fix. Not too far away and their fan base is national. Stadium only holds a few thousand less.

AFA and CSU are about the same distance from Denver. Neither has much of a presence in the metro. AFA has a great stadium with a (lack of) alcohol problem. No clue about the situation up in Fort Collins.

EDIT- scratch that. AFA now allows alcohol. Good for them; maybe I'll go back.

I put AFA in unique “national” category with Notre Dame and the other Academies. They’re going to fill up your stadium out west whether it be Texas or California. I think they could compete in a Pac minus USC and UCLA and would probably bring some good media numbers like the Navy football-only deal, or why Aresco has pined for them and Army.

(06-01-2023 08:58 AM)esayem Wrote:  

(05-31-2023 10:39 PM)VCE Wrote:  

(05-31-2023 10:07 PM)esayem Wrote:  

(05-31-2023 09:52 PM)PlayBall! Wrote:  

(05-31-2023 09:10 PM)esayem Wrote:  Will Colorado affect the potential media deal substantially? If not, then the Pac 9 actually might end up with a larger payout than if the Buffs remain in the conference.

Losing the Denver DMA gotta hurt.

If it does, plug in Air Force. Easy fix. Not too far away and their fan base is national. Stadium only holds a few thousand less.

AFA and CSU are about the same distance from Denver. Neither has much of a presence in the metro. AFA has a great stadium with a (lack of) alcohol problem. No clue about the situation up in Fort Collins.

EDIT- scratch that. AFA now allows alcohol. Good for them; maybe I'll go back.

I put AFA in unique “national” category with Notre Dame and the other Academies. They’re going to fill up your stadium out west whether it be Texas or California. I think they could compete in a Pac minus USC and UCLA and would probably bring some good media numbers like the Navy football-only deal, or why Aresco has pined for them and Army.

I agree with this fully.

(05-31-2023 08:15 PM)Skyhawk Wrote:  That's 32.

(and still leaves 8 or so ACC schools for the P2 to fight over : )

The Big32
AZ, AZ state, Boise State, BYU, Fresno State, SDSU, UNLV, Utah
Oregon, Oregon state, Washington, Washington state
Colorado, Iowa state, Kansas, Kansas state
Baylor, Houston, OK state, SMU, TCU, Texas Tech
Cincinnati, Louisville, Memphis, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Tulane, UConn, WV
UCF, USF

That looks like a fun conference : )

Kool-Aid realignment here.

If it's CU and Memphis. In 2030, if the PAC falls apart, the rest of the 4C join, that's 17. SDSU would make it 18. Then, you add UL, Pitt. for 20.

If they want 24, it will be remaining ACC teams or Big East/hybrid teams.

(05-31-2023 10:07 PM)esayem Wrote:  

(05-31-2023 09:52 PM)PlayBall! Wrote:  

(05-31-2023 09:10 PM)esayem Wrote:  Will Colorado affect the potential media deal substantially? If not, then the Pac 9 actually might end up with a larger payout than if the Buffs remain in the conference.

Losing the Denver DMA gotta hurt.

If it does, plug in Air Force. Easy fix. Not too far away and their fan base is national. Stadium only holds a few thousand less.

Depends if the PAC presidents can get onboard with Air Force's institutional mission.

CSU isn't a bad fill in, they actually do quite well academically.

(06-01-2023 09:38 AM)RUScarlets Wrote:  

(05-31-2023 08:15 PM)Skyhawk Wrote:  That's 32.

(and still leaves 8 or so ACC schools for the P2 to fight over : )

The Big32
AZ, AZ state, Boise State, BYU, Fresno State, SDSU, UNLV, Utah
Oregon, Oregon state, Washington, Washington state
Colorado, Iowa state, Kansas, Kansas state
Baylor, Houston, OK state, SMU, TCU, Texas Tech
Cincinnati, Louisville, Memphis, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Tulane, UConn, WV
UCF, USF

That looks like a fun conference : )

Kool-Aid realignment here.

If it's CU and Memphis. In 2030, if the PAC falls apart, the rest of the 4C join, that's 17. SDSU would make it 18. Then, you add UL, Pitt. for 20.

If they want 24, it will be remaining ACC teams or Big East/hybrid teams.

lol, you only quote the "let's invite everybody" bit of fun at the tail end of my post, and leave out the majority of it, where I do a lot of that analysis...

Anyway, here's the whole post:

(05-31-2023 08:15 PM)Skyhawk Wrote:  If that happened, then, from the reports of Yormark's priorities, I would guess that the +1 would be UNLV or Memphis.

But I still question whether Utah moves, even if the rest of the 3Cs move.

If Colorado joins the Big12, and if the AZ schools follow, with SDSU, that's 16 schools.

The next 2 or 4 are questionable. As I mentioned, there's reporting that the next 2 would likely be UNLV and Memphis.

Setting aside the UConn and Gonzaga question (which is a whole other discussion), then it just gets into us guessing what we think would be best.

Reporting from some time ago had the B12 having Boise State, USF, Memphis, and SMU as their short list. I don't know if any of those schools (besides Memphis) is still in the running. And there have been reports that there has been talk with Fresno State, as well. And then apparently Colorado State is a possible option as well.

But I think pairing USF with UCF for travel reasons (similar to pairing USC/UCLA), seems like a decent idea.

And, though I don't recall seeing it listed on any reporting out of the Big12, several commenters have brought up Tulane, and I think that that would be a decent idea. there would be several AAU schools incoming in this scenario, and I think they might be happier with one more. Plus it gives Memphis somewhat of a rival, and also another travel "stepping stone" towards the Florida schools.

Anyway, I think that pretty much lists all the schools that are apparently "in the running".

If I was handed the magic wand and got to pick my choices for the Big12 (and only if we're presuming the Big10 (or other conferences) do not try to add anyone), then for whatever it's worth, I think I'd select these:

Colorado, Memphis, Tulane, and USF

And then the Big12 would look something like this:

Big16
BYU, Colorado, Iowa state, Kansas, Kansas state
Baylor, Houston, OK state, TCU, Texas Tech
Cincinnati, Memphis, Tulane, WV
UCF, USF

Now, the powers-that-be in the Big12 seem interested in UNLV and SDSU. I would pair them with Fresno State for more California coverage. And to go to 20, I'd add SMU.

SMU is - among other reasons - simply because I think the Texas teams would want to shore up their in-conference voting bloc.

And if, in the future, we want to go 4 more, this is where we can add AZ, AZ State, Utah, and Boise State.

And 4 more - the 4 WA and OR schools.

And 4 more - Pittsburgh, Louisville, Syracuse, and UConn.

That's 32.

(and still leaves 8 or so ACC schools for the P2 to fight over : )

The Big32
AZ, AZ state, Boise State, BYU, Fresno State, SDSU, UNLV, Utah
Oregon, Oregon state, Washington, Washington state
Colorado, Iowa state, Kansas, Kansas state
Baylor, Houston, OK state, SMU, TCU, Texas Tech
Cincinnati, Louisville, Memphis, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Tulane, UConn, WV
UCF, USF

That looks like a fun conference : )