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B1G November Issue could be solved by adding FSU/Miami
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JRsec Offline
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Post: #61
RE: B1G November Issue could be solved by adding FSU/Miami
(05-23-2023 11:49 AM)esayem Wrote:  
(05-23-2023 11:34 AM)Strut Wrote:  
(05-23-2023 08:56 AM)ken d Wrote:  
(05-22-2023 05:27 PM)Strut Wrote:  
(05-22-2023 05:16 PM)The Sicatoka Wrote:  November? Too cold? Seriously?
Toughen up, buttercup.

Wimps.
Or build a dome.

Your loving friends at
The University of North Dakota
With $100+ million each year in near future for B1G schools I'd add on to your idea of building domes and suggest retractable roof options for multiple purpose facilities; football, baseball, track and field, etc. If needed add a corporate sponsorship like the Carrier dome.

I think that $100 million in the near future is a pipe dream. I think we've pretty much peaked on media rights fees. I doubt they'll get more than inflation increases in the future, and maybe not even that. It's going to be hard for schools to build billion dollar stadiums in the future.
Here's my thinking - there is a massive gap between NFL media rights which are over $10 billion annually, and college media rights (football).

When objectively looking at Major college football programs/games in comparison to NFL, I don't personally see much of a difference with the product, venue (and I get NFL has more corporate skyboxes/suites/jumbotrons currently). For reference, I'm comparing about a dozen teams - NFL and Major college games visited.

Most of the same food and drinks (including alcohol) are widely available now at both; which was probably the most noticeable difference several years back.

If anything, I personally enjoy the bands and mascots giving an edge to the college gameday experience.

So, to me that there is a massive chasm in the "compensation received" for universities/colleges versus the benefit value being provided. The NFL has pridefully shared their goal of overall revenue greater than $25 billion by 2027; media rights component TBD.

If Major college programs follow even at a distance behind the NFL's growth, my logic is the money has got to come and go somewhere. I'm expecting mutiple media and sports books money to flood Major colleges by the end of the decade.

So while now $100 million for ALL of a Major university's media rights might sound like a lot, I think within a decade it will be cheap if the NFL model is followed to conclusion.

Airtime is dominated by NFL talk. The viewership is dominated by NFL fans. There are way more NFL fans that don’t follow college football than the opposite. I don’t see that ever changing.

Oh it will most assuredly change! The two entities are symbionts. The NFL can't exist without College Football and College Football can't exist without the hope for millions that drive poor kids to play high school football, which in turns feeds college football. High school participation is decidedly declining which threatens the whole cycle. College football is consolidating for brand advantage which enhances the ability to lure fewer recruits to the bigger brands to keep it alive. When High School football essentially collapses as it is doing in the West and North with strong pockets of resistance in Los Angeles and Southern California, and in Ohio and Pennsylvania, the Southeast and Southwest which also has declines in % of young boys participating, just not nearly as drastic as changes elsewhere, will be the only two areas producing sufficient athletes to supply any quality and quantity of players to sustain the College level. When College Football shrinks the supply to the NFL will as well, quality will go down, the cost of players will rise, and the business model of the NFL will have to demand more revenue to keep pace with the inflation of players' salaries, and we've already begun to see this. Right now that supply and quality issue is disguised by demand. But eventually people will see the declines and Football will live on as a regional sport for another 20-40 years in the Southeast and Southwest.

Like my grandfather's sporting events he travelled to see, boxing, polo, the Kentucky Derby and the Indianapolis 500 in its infancy the sport will die. Like baseball it will still be played, but it will never see the glory days of its golden years again.

People before television tuned in by radio for the 100's of thousands for the Triple Crown Races, listened to baseball just about every night during the Summer, listened to football by radio across the nation, and followed the careers of drivers and jockeys. Polo was an eccentricity of my grandfather's left over by his childhood and his vacations to Cuba, before the revolution. Miami still has it.

Football, even professionally, is past peak now. Since everything else is traveling at an accelerated rate of decrepitude I think likely football's lifespan will last 40 years past that of Boomers. I can't say we'll see, because being a Boomer means I won't be around when it happens. Perhaps some of you will see.
05-23-2023 12:08 PM
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jimrtex Offline
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Post: #62
RE: B1G November Issue could be solved by adding FSU/Miami
(05-23-2023 12:27 AM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  
(05-22-2023 05:50 PM)goofus Wrote:  Yes, Wisc and PSU already are planning to add heated fields in 2024. That won't help the fans stay warm, but at least the teams will be comfy. Maybe it's time for OSU, Mich and MSU to do the same. If not, there are NFL stadiums a couple of hours down the road.

They were going to add those newfangled heated fields, but now they have to make up for that NBC shortfall. Maybe after 2030.
Maybe they can play the November games at the Bears new stadium in Chicagoland. Kevin Warren bails out the contract that the new guy messed up on finishing.
05-24-2023 08:00 AM
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Gitanole Offline
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Post: #63
RE: B1G November Issue could be solved by adding FSU/Miami
(05-23-2023 08:49 AM)GarnetAndBlue Wrote:  FSU beat the top SEC team in the 90's (UF). Like 2 out of 3. Back when the SEC wasn't THE SEC. You have to take a lot of what Bobby said with a grain of salt. He was often self-deprecating and always folksy...and his justification of the ACC decision is part of that.
....

Florida State routinely played one of the tougher schedules in the country and still does as far as it has any say about it. They've always played at least two in-state rivals per year and never ducked Miami--even during the heyday of that program, when schools like ND, UF, and Penn State got busy finding reasons to drop the 'Canes from their schedules.

Bobby Bowden built the program on a go-everywhere-play-everybody philosophy. He earned his Road Warrior nickname accordingly. And today, teams he could only play at their place come to Doak.
(This post was last modified: 05-24-2023 08:14 AM by Gitanole.)
05-24-2023 08:13 AM
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GoBuckeyes1047 Offline
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Post: #64
RE: B1G November Issue could be solved by adding FSU/Miami
(05-23-2023 01:52 AM)JRsec Wrote:  Greta says Miami's program will be under water in 20 years, literally: Global Warming

Arizona schools will be out of water in 20 years, due to California stealing it. Global Warming

If North Carolina and Virginia were added to the Big 10 their stadium capacities are 50,500 and 64,900 respectively. Smallish by Big 10 standards. Smallish by SEC standards. BTW: Georgia Tech 55,000, Miami 64,700, N.C. State 57,500, Duke 40,000, Virginia Tech 65,600.

To put this into perspective the SEC averaged for the entire conference 76,500 in attendance in 2022. The Big 10 averaged for the entire conference 66,000 in 2022.

The ACC has 2 teams which are close to the SEC average: Clemson and FSU
The ACC has 4 teams which exceed or are close to the Big 10 average: Clemson, FSU exceed, Virginia, Virginia Tech are close. Miami's close but not on campus.


If the Big 10 added Washington and Oregon to help with their schedule shortcomings and general inventory you should think of it as having steak before Rocky Balboa goes against Apollo Creed for the ACC schools. It's a necessary part of training and building up your constitution and strength.

We love to speculate about who raids the ACC and where they will go. Some schools will be taken for reasons beyond sports and some for sports. But in a purely sports capacity only 2 schools truly meet the Big 10 norms: Notre Dame, Virginia

Only 3 schools meet the SEC norm: Notre Dame, Clemson and Florida State

Check the attendance of each ACC and PAC 12 school, check how much revenue they generated last year, their last WSJ valuation, and then compare those to the SEC and Big 10. Very few make the cut but Washington is one. Kansas is another, but not in all metrics.

IF we grow past 18, the networks have something in mind beyond mere value and fit. We should all talk about that. Why? Because behind the scenes the talk of going big is and has been there. How do you monetize it? Inventory of games, Collective Brand value, Exclusive Tier, Expanded Playoffs, possibly New Basketball Tournament, One TV contract with 2 networks.

Here's a thought JRsec. Obviously an Oregon and Washington addition to the B1G means nothing to the SEC, but the SEC will likely target FSU and Clemson when the ACC opens up. Do you see a scenario for the SEC where they only take FSU and Clemson with the intention of keeping the ACC alive so that ND can remain in their scheduling agreement with the ACC and not join the B1G? Maybe over time between now and 2030, the rest of the ACC loses value and, besides ND, the rest of the league isn't valuable to add to the B1G or SEC or their media partners by say 2030?

Ideally, if expansion is going past 18, 20 is more preferable as you're probably looking at Oregon, Washington, Notre Dame, Virginia, North Carolina, Clemson, Florida St., and Miami as the likely candidates, maybe sub in Stanford for an ACC team.
05-25-2023 09:41 AM
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bullet Offline
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Post: #65
RE: B1G November Issue could be solved by adding FSU/Miami
(05-23-2023 12:08 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(05-23-2023 11:49 AM)esayem Wrote:  
(05-23-2023 11:34 AM)Strut Wrote:  
(05-23-2023 08:56 AM)ken d Wrote:  
(05-22-2023 05:27 PM)Strut Wrote:  With $100+ million each year in near future for B1G schools I'd add on to your idea of building domes and suggest retractable roof options for multiple purpose facilities; football, baseball, track and field, etc. If needed add a corporate sponsorship like the Carrier dome.

I think that $100 million in the near future is a pipe dream. I think we've pretty much peaked on media rights fees. I doubt they'll get more than inflation increases in the future, and maybe not even that. It's going to be hard for schools to build billion dollar stadiums in the future.
Here's my thinking - there is a massive gap between NFL media rights which are over $10 billion annually, and college media rights (football).

When objectively looking at Major college football programs/games in comparison to NFL, I don't personally see much of a difference with the product, venue (and I get NFL has more corporate skyboxes/suites/jumbotrons currently). For reference, I'm comparing about a dozen teams - NFL and Major college games visited.

Most of the same food and drinks (including alcohol) are widely available now at both; which was probably the most noticeable difference several years back.

If anything, I personally enjoy the bands and mascots giving an edge to the college gameday experience.

So, to me that there is a massive chasm in the "compensation received" for universities/colleges versus the benefit value being provided. The NFL has pridefully shared their goal of overall revenue greater than $25 billion by 2027; media rights component TBD.

If Major college programs follow even at a distance behind the NFL's growth, my logic is the money has got to come and go somewhere. I'm expecting mutiple media and sports books money to flood Major colleges by the end of the decade.

So while now $100 million for ALL of a Major university's media rights might sound like a lot, I think within a decade it will be cheap if the NFL model is followed to conclusion.

Airtime is dominated by NFL talk. The viewership is dominated by NFL fans. There are way more NFL fans that don’t follow college football than the opposite. I don’t see that ever changing.

Oh it will most assuredly change! The two entities are symbionts. The NFL can't exist without College Football and College Football can't exist without the hope for millions that drive poor kids to play high school football, which in turns feeds college football. High school participation is decidedly declining which threatens the whole cycle. College football is consolidating for brand advantage which enhances the ability to lure fewer recruits to the bigger brands to keep it alive. When High School football essentially collapses as it is doing in the West and North with strong pockets of resistance in Los Angeles and Southern California, and in Ohio and Pennsylvania, the Southeast and Southwest which also has declines in % of young boys participating, just not nearly as drastic as changes elsewhere, will be the only two areas producing sufficient athletes to supply any quality and quantity of players to sustain the College level. When College Football shrinks the supply to the NFL will as well, quality will go down, the cost of players will rise, and the business model of the NFL will have to demand more revenue to keep pace with the inflation of players' salaries, and we've already begun to see this. Right now that supply and quality issue is disguised by demand. But eventually people will see the declines and Football will live on as a regional sport for another 20-40 years in the Southeast and Southwest.

Like my grandfather's sporting events he travelled to see, boxing, polo, the Kentucky Derby and the Indianapolis 500 in its infancy the sport will die. Like baseball it will still be played, but it will never see the glory days of its golden years again.

People before television tuned in by radio for the 100's of thousands for the Triple Crown Races, listened to baseball just about every night during the Summer, listened to football by radio across the nation, and followed the careers of drivers and jockeys. Polo was an eccentricity of my grandfather's left over by his childhood and his vacations to Cuba, before the revolution. Miami still has it.

Football, even professionally, is past peak now. Since everything else is traveling at an accelerated rate of decrepitude I think likely football's lifespan will last 40 years past that of Boomers. I can't say we'll see, because being a Boomer means I won't be around when it happens. Perhaps some of you will see.

In your examples, you fail to note that the Kentucky Derby and Indy 500 are still huge events. Its all the lesser events around them that have declined. Hollywood Park is now SoFi Stadium. The biggest brands continue and generate huge dollars.
05-25-2023 11:35 AM
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JRsec Offline
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Post: #66
RE: B1G November Issue could be solved by adding FSU/Miami
(05-25-2023 09:41 AM)GoBuckeyes1047 Wrote:  
(05-23-2023 01:52 AM)JRsec Wrote:  Greta says Miami's program will be under water in 20 years, literally: Global Warming

Arizona schools will be out of water in 20 years, due to California stealing it. Global Warming

If North Carolina and Virginia were added to the Big 10 their stadium capacities are 50,500 and 64,900 respectively. Smallish by Big 10 standards. Smallish by SEC standards. BTW: Georgia Tech 55,000, Miami 64,700, N.C. State 57,500, Duke 40,000, Virginia Tech 65,600.

To put this into perspective the SEC averaged for the entire conference 76,500 in attendance in 2022. The Big 10 averaged for the entire conference 66,000 in 2022.

The ACC has 2 teams which are close to the SEC average: Clemson and FSU
The ACC has 4 teams which exceed or are close to the Big 10 average: Clemson, FSU exceed, Virginia, Virginia Tech are close. Miami's close but not on campus.


If the Big 10 added Washington and Oregon to help with their schedule shortcomings and general inventory you should think of it as having steak before Rocky Balboa goes against Apollo Creed for the ACC schools. It's a necessary part of training and building up your constitution and strength.

We love to speculate about who raids the ACC and where they will go. Some schools will be taken for reasons beyond sports and some for sports. But in a purely sports capacity only 2 schools truly meet the Big 10 norms: Notre Dame, Virginia

Only 3 schools meet the SEC norm: Notre Dame, Clemson and Florida State

Check the attendance of each ACC and PAC 12 school, check how much revenue they generated last year, their last WSJ valuation, and then compare those to the SEC and Big 10. Very few make the cut but Washington is one. Kansas is another, but not in all metrics.

IF we grow past 18, the networks have something in mind beyond mere value and fit. We should all talk about that. Why? Because behind the scenes the talk of going big is and has been there. How do you monetize it? Inventory of games, Collective Brand value, Exclusive Tier, Expanded Playoffs, possibly New Basketball Tournament, One TV contract with 2 networks.

Here's a thought JRsec. Obviously an Oregon and Washington addition to the B1G means nothing to the SEC, but the SEC will likely target FSU and Clemson when the ACC opens up. Do you see a scenario for the SEC where they only take FSU and Clemson with the intention of keeping the ACC alive so that ND can remain in their scheduling agreement with the ACC and not join the B1G? Maybe over time between now and 2030, the rest of the ACC loses value and, besides ND, the rest of the league isn't valuable to add to the B1G or SEC or their media partners by say 2030?

Ideally, if expansion is going past 18, 20 is more preferable as you're probably looking at Oregon, Washington, Notre Dame, Virginia, North Carolina, Clemson, Florida St., and Miami as the likely candidates, maybe sub in Stanford for an ACC team.

I think the SEC would absolutely be happy to close out at 18 if the Big 10 did and let the ACC stand as they are. I have talked about that be the SEC preference in the past. So what's changed?

What this board has yet to truly grasp is that the playoff money will amount, if equally distributed, to about 18 million per school for an upper tier of ~72 schools. Presently the conferences make equal shares and the money is broken down from there. Right now it's a plus for the Big 12. They fear a distribution by size of conference. The more you have the more you get, or a distribution by participants only (the more you get in the more you make). But that money is pushing the consolidation into fewer conferences, and the expansion into larger conferences.

Outside of the SEC and Big 10 simply agreeing to stop at 18 or 20 the desire of the others to be in the SEC or Big 10 would seem to indicate that putting on the brakes will be tough.

Your concept is solid. i think the environment has changed. Truly with Clemson and Florida State the SEC would control its own region and with Oregon and Washington so too would the Big 10 have much more control in the West.

Another issue driving consolidation is inventory. The more each conference controls the more leverage they have in rights negotiations. So there's another factor pushing more additions.

Reasonableness is the only proposal we are talking about which makes sense for a stop in growth. Greed is driving the rest.
(This post was last modified: 05-25-2023 02:37 PM by JRsec.)
05-25-2023 02:34 PM
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OneSockUp Offline
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Post: #67
RE: B1G November Issue could be solved by adding FSU/Miami
(05-25-2023 02:34 PM)JRsec Wrote:  Truly with Clemson and Florida State the SEC would control its own region and with Oregon and Washington so too would the Big 10 have much more control in the West.

Does the SEC not already "truly own" it's own region?

Clemson had one amazing run of six years, all under one coach. What happens when Dabo leaves and Clemson is left running an eight figure deficit relative to its geographic rivals? The SEC adding Clemson gives the Tigers a lifeline. I don't know why they would do that.

Florida State is a more complicated story: They have a longer history of elite performance, under multiple coaches, and are located in a much more desirable state with a bigger fan base. They have also been mired in mediocrity for the past seven or eight seasons -- coincidentally or not exactly as the SEC has truly exhibited its dominance over the landscape. Again, I'm not sure if the SEC would want to add another mouth to feed while helping out a rival.

Do either of these schools offer the $80 million needed to justify their entrance into the SEC financially? FSU might be close; Clemson is a clear no.

Is the SEC fearful of the Big Ten nabbing two name brands from the Deep South? Maybe, but geographic outliers have thus far not been particularly successful on the field, either for their own good or for the good of their conferences. If I were the SEC I would let them go and focus, if expansion is absolutely necessary, on the revenues that North Carolina and Virginia could bring in.

Back to my original point: I would go as far as to say that the SEC owns the entire NCAA football with or without any additions -- and they will until another league can come anywhere near the SEC's on-field dominance.
05-25-2023 03:51 PM
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Post: #68
RE: B1G November Issue could be solved by adding FSU/Miami
(05-25-2023 03:51 PM)OneSockUp Wrote:  
(05-25-2023 02:34 PM)JRsec Wrote:  Truly with Clemson and Florida State the SEC would control its own region and with Oregon and Washington so too would the Big 10 have much more control in the West.

Does the SEC not already "truly own" it's own region?

Clemson had one amazing run of six years, all under one coach. What happens when Dabo leaves and Clemson is left running an eight figure deficit relative to its geographic rivals? The SEC adding Clemson gives the Tigers a lifeline. I don't know why they would do that.

Florida State is a more complicated story: They have a longer history of elite performance, under multiple coaches, and are located in a much more desirable state with a bigger fan base. They have also been mired in mediocrity for the past seven or eight seasons -- coincidentally or not exactly as the SEC has truly exhibited its dominance over the landscape. Again, I'm not sure if the SEC would want to add another mouth to feed while helping out a rival.

Do either of these schools offer the $80 million needed to justify their entrance into the SEC financially? FSU might be close; Clemson is a clear no.

Is the SEC fearful of the Big Ten nabbing two name brands from the Deep South? Maybe, but geographic outliers have thus far not been particularly successful on the field, either for their own good or for the good of their conferences. If I were the SEC I would let them go and focus, if expansion is absolutely necessary, on the revenues that North Carolina and Virginia could bring in.

Back to my original point: I would go as far as to say that the SEC owns the entire NCAA football with or without any additions -- and they will until another league can come anywhere near the SEC's on-field dominance.

It depends on what kind of dominance you are seeking. Dominance on the field is owned in essence. Add Florida State and Clemson and other than Ohio State it is total dominance.

If you are talking dominance in marketing then you need more than 75% of the total viewers of college sports in each of your member states. We don't have that in South Carolina and we don't have that in Florida. We have that in Texas, Oklahoma, Missouri, Arkansas, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, Tennessee, and Kentucky (close enough). Take North Carolina and Virginia Tech and you carry the state, but for dominance you would need Virginia and N.C. State.

Why is that important? To avoid what Notre Dame does to the Big 10, provide a cheaper way to advertise in major Northern Midwestern cities than by paying the Big 10 for the privilege. Georgia Tech can do that for Atlanta (backdoor the SEC) but not the State. Florida State and Clemson can do that for the Big 10 in their states. Plus those are 2 schools aside from Ohio State which have won Nattys in the last 10 years.

Why even mess around. Just take FSU and Clemson and you add to content games, and further legitimize the claim to dominance and in the process keep the Big 10 out of the Deep South in any meaningful way. The cost of that business is worth it. Adding North Carolina and Virginia, even if you don't hold 75% of their total college viewership is still worth it 20 million plus combined in population.

I'd say those 4 make a lot of sense for a better defined and solid South for the SEC.

I agree with your sentiment, but the business angle has some vulnerabilities which can be eliminated. So, eliminate them. We'll still make money.
05-25-2023 04:04 PM
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