JRsec
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RE: B1G November Issue could be solved by adding FSU/Miami
(05-25-2023 09:41 AM)GoBuckeyes1047 Wrote: (05-23-2023 01:52 AM)JRsec Wrote: Greta says Miami's program will be under water in 20 years, literally: Global Warming
Arizona schools will be out of water in 20 years, due to California stealing it. Global Warming
If North Carolina and Virginia were added to the Big 10 their stadium capacities are 50,500 and 64,900 respectively. Smallish by Big 10 standards. Smallish by SEC standards. BTW: Georgia Tech 55,000, Miami 64,700, N.C. State 57,500, Duke 40,000, Virginia Tech 65,600.
To put this into perspective the SEC averaged for the entire conference 76,500 in attendance in 2022. The Big 10 averaged for the entire conference 66,000 in 2022.
The ACC has 2 teams which are close to the SEC average: Clemson and FSU
The ACC has 4 teams which exceed or are close to the Big 10 average: Clemson, FSU exceed, Virginia, Virginia Tech are close. Miami's close but not on campus.
If the Big 10 added Washington and Oregon to help with their schedule shortcomings and general inventory you should think of it as having steak before Rocky Balboa goes against Apollo Creed for the ACC schools. It's a necessary part of training and building up your constitution and strength.
We love to speculate about who raids the ACC and where they will go. Some schools will be taken for reasons beyond sports and some for sports. But in a purely sports capacity only 2 schools truly meet the Big 10 norms: Notre Dame, Virginia
Only 3 schools meet the SEC norm: Notre Dame, Clemson and Florida State
Check the attendance of each ACC and PAC 12 school, check how much revenue they generated last year, their last WSJ valuation, and then compare those to the SEC and Big 10. Very few make the cut but Washington is one. Kansas is another, but not in all metrics.
IF we grow past 18, the networks have something in mind beyond mere value and fit. We should all talk about that. Why? Because behind the scenes the talk of going big is and has been there. How do you monetize it? Inventory of games, Collective Brand value, Exclusive Tier, Expanded Playoffs, possibly New Basketball Tournament, One TV contract with 2 networks.
Here's a thought JRsec. Obviously an Oregon and Washington addition to the B1G means nothing to the SEC, but the SEC will likely target FSU and Clemson when the ACC opens up. Do you see a scenario for the SEC where they only take FSU and Clemson with the intention of keeping the ACC alive so that ND can remain in their scheduling agreement with the ACC and not join the B1G? Maybe over time between now and 2030, the rest of the ACC loses value and, besides ND, the rest of the league isn't valuable to add to the B1G or SEC or their media partners by say 2030?
Ideally, if expansion is going past 18, 20 is more preferable as you're probably looking at Oregon, Washington, Notre Dame, Virginia, North Carolina, Clemson, Florida St., and Miami as the likely candidates, maybe sub in Stanford for an ACC team.
I think the SEC would absolutely be happy to close out at 18 if the Big 10 did and let the ACC stand as they are. I have talked about that be the SEC preference in the past. So what's changed?
What this board has yet to truly grasp is that the playoff money will amount, if equally distributed, to about 18 million per school for an upper tier of ~72 schools. Presently the conferences make equal shares and the money is broken down from there. Right now it's a plus for the Big 12. They fear a distribution by size of conference. The more you have the more you get, or a distribution by participants only (the more you get in the more you make). But that money is pushing the consolidation into fewer conferences, and the expansion into larger conferences.
Outside of the SEC and Big 10 simply agreeing to stop at 18 or 20 the desire of the others to be in the SEC or Big 10 would seem to indicate that putting on the brakes will be tough.
Your concept is solid. i think the environment has changed. Truly with Clemson and Florida State the SEC would control its own region and with Oregon and Washington so too would the Big 10 have much more control in the West.
Another issue driving consolidation is inventory. The more each conference controls the more leverage they have in rights negotiations. So there's another factor pushing more additions.
Reasonableness is the only proposal we are talking about which makes sense for a stop in growth. Greed is driving the rest.
(This post was last modified: 05-25-2023 02:37 PM by JRsec.)
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