(05-22-2023 08:49 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  This reminded me that there has been something chuckle-worthy about the ACC talk coming out of the M7 revelation regarding being the "third-best conference" or whatever.

I mean, imagine five people in a room:

Elon Musk
Bill Gates
Me (net worth, maybe $400,000)
Broke bum #1
Broke bum #2

.. I'd be the "third-richest man" in that room. But that doesn't mean I'd be rich, or anything like Musk or Gates, both of whom have like 250,000 times my net worth. I'd be far closer in wealth to the bums.

Obviously, compared to the P5 situation, that is a vast exaggeration. But it makes the point that you can't eat a percentage, or an ordinal ranking. And I think that being "solid #3" won't mollify the M7 for long.

We'll see.

Yes. Solid #3 counts in conference prestige, in the sense that being #3 beats being #4 or #5. You can take it as certain vindication of the operating philosophy.

For an athletic program what counts is where you are and where your competition is. Your first choice is to have the lead. 'Within striking distance' is good enough. Nothing else is satisfactory.

(05-22-2023 10:14 AM)johnbragg Wrote:  

(05-22-2023 09:51 AM)Scoochpooch1 Wrote:  

(05-22-2023 01:15 AM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  

(05-21-2023 08:54 PM)johnbragg Wrote:  

(05-21-2023 08:52 PM)Alanda Wrote:  lol

I'll take our chances on being fired. That means we were at least in the competition.

It would be a smart move for Memphis, not so much for Pitt.

Can Pitt or Memphis control if the P2 decide to come knockin' in the next decade or sooner though? The kind of investment it would take to vault them into that conversation would render P2 membership moot.

For SOME schools, there's a chance at the Cadillac. However, for most schools, Conference 3 is the best they're gonna get. Maybe it's enough to keep them in the top level of football, maybe it's not, but it's a whole lot better than being the last man standing when all the chairs are gone like Cincinnati was during the breakup of the BE.

But neither really should be P2s. Pitt in B10, maybe on some metrics. Memphis State in SEC, certainly not. So gaining entry into Conference #3 seems to be a win as long as they are somewhat in the overall conversation.

The point is that there's no guarantee that "Conference 3" stays somewhat in the overall conversation. Pitt has ACC money guaranteed through 2036. They have playoff access, and the ACC champ is not losing playoff access as long as they have FSU and Clemson in the fold.

Trading that for a Big 12 or revamped ACC "Third conference" (without FSU and Clemson) is taking a risk. The Big 12 contract expires in 2031. Nobody knows if they get the same contract again, double the money, half the money. The TV industry is changing.

If you enable the transition from P5 to P3, you have no security that the system stays at P3 instead of P2. Third place? You're fired.

Absolutely. Anyone following me on this board knows I would love it to be P2 and ignoring everyone else but I don't know why that would happen when the CFP just needlessly expanded to 12 teams. Those 12 spots guarantee a spot for ND yearly, along with probably 2 undeserving G5s. You are correct to bold that sentence but I don't know what the impetus for exclusion would be other than a full P2 breakaway.

(05-22-2023 09:46 AM)johnbragg Wrote:  

(05-22-2023 08:49 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  This reminded me that there has been something chuckle-worthy about the ACC talk coming out of the M7 revelation regarding being the "third-best conference" or whatever.

I mean, imagine five people in a room:

Elon Musk
Bill Gates
Me (net worth, maybe $400,000)
Broke bum #1
Broke bum #2

.. I'd be the "third-richest man" in that room. But that doesn't mean I'd be rich, or anything like Musk or Gates, both of whom have like 250,000 times my net worth. I'd be far closer in wealth to the bums.

Obviously, compared to the P5 situation, that is a vast exaggeration. But it makes the point that you can't eat a percentage, or an ordinal ranking. And I think that being "solid #3" won't mollify the M7 for long.

We'll see.

Right. If you're Pitt or Louisville or Syracuse or maybe NC State, posters on the board are saying you'd be getting a good deal to let other schools go to the SEC or Big Ten and get your "spot secured" in the No. 3 conference.

I'd say you should hold on to that guaranteed ESPN-ACC contract money, because there's no assurance that the Big 12 is still getting a solid deal in 2031.

You have been beating this drum for awhile, johnbragg. Going the route you are talking about is like driving a car off a cliff: you're going to wind up dead, so better booze it up while you can . To me, the above is exactly what you are saying.

The below is for the ACC:

(05-22-2023 01:37 AM)Gitanole Wrote:  

(05-21-2023 04:22 PM)johnbragg Wrote:  



Third prize is you're fired

Lol
People throw these clips around. I always want to see Baldwin's character get fired. That guy would cry like a baby.

Of course, third is a spot worth having for a conference. We're talking about a lot of money.

Your members need to be cool with it, though. And that depends on their expectations.

Right now, as we see, most of the ACC's membership is not cool with it. The schools have higher ambitions. Let those schools get a call-up that yields more of what they expect—then you can bring in new members, and things have a chance to settle nicely.

His attitude is exactly we always saw from the best salesmen. Maybe not the exact demeanor, but the determination to be #1. That's such a good clip.

(05-22-2023 03:45 AM)johnbragg Wrote:  

(05-22-2023 01:15 AM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  

(05-21-2023 08:54 PM)johnbragg Wrote:  

(05-21-2023 08:52 PM)Alanda Wrote:  

(05-21-2023 05:08 PM)johnbragg Wrote:  The Powers That BE are trying to suppress my message.

Swapped the link, maybe this one stays up

lol

I'll take our chances on being fired. That means we were at least in the competition.

It would be a smart move for Memphis, not so much for Pitt.

Can Pitt or Memphis control if the P2 decide to come knockin' in the next decade or sooner though? The kind of investment it would take to vault them into that conversation would render P2 membership moot.

For SOME schools, there's a chance at the Cadillac. However, for most schools, Conference 3 is the best they're gonna get. Maybe it's enough to keep them in the top level of football, maybe it's not, but it's a whole lot better than being the last man standing when all the chairs are gone like Cincinnati was during the breakup of the BE.

But its not better than guaranteed money through 2036.

What's better than guaranteed money through 2036? MOAR guaranteed money through 2036, similar money but more stability, or more money + more stability. Take away the top 4-6 from the ACC and top 4 from the Pac, merge the rest with the big 12 and Pac, slap the ACCN onto all of them, presto, similar money, more stability, everybody wins. And it's not like the P2 would never look at another C3 school again, any school in the C3 still has a chance to improve their lot either through an improved C3 or through an eventual P2 callup. Getting left out of that power structure is the real nightmare scenario for some schools, say if we end up with a 20/20/20 format and 8 (widely separated) schools back in the g5.

(05-22-2023 02:31 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  

(05-22-2023 03:45 AM)johnbragg Wrote:  

(05-22-2023 01:15 AM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  

(05-21-2023 08:54 PM)johnbragg Wrote:  

(05-21-2023 08:52 PM)Alanda Wrote:  lol

I'll take our chances on being fired. That means we were at least in the competition.

It would be a smart move for Memphis, not so much for Pitt.

Can Pitt or Memphis control if the P2 decide to come knockin' in the next decade or sooner though? The kind of investment it would take to vault them into that conversation would render P2 membership moot.

For SOME schools, there's a chance at the Cadillac. However, for most schools, Conference 3 is the best they're gonna get. Maybe it's enough to keep them in the top level of football, maybe it's not, but it's a whole lot better than being the last man standing when all the chairs are gone like Cincinnati was during the breakup of the BE.

But its not better than guaranteed money through 2036.

What's better than guaranteed money through 2036? MOAR guaranteed money through 2036,

That means being in the SEC or Big Ten. That's great for them.

Quote:similar money but more stability, or more money + more stability.

You don't get that if you let FSU and Clemson go. If you let FSU and Clemson go, the ACC and hte ACC NEtwork are less valuable.

And the Big 12 is only guaranteed through 2031.

Quote: Take away the top 4-6 from the ACC and top 4 from the Pac, merge the rest with the big 12 and Pac, slap the ACCN onto all of them, presto, similar money, more stability, everybody wins.

If you take away to the top 4-6 from the ACC, you don't have an ACC Network. ESPN had to spend a lot of leverage to get the ACC Network carried on basic cable across the country, in a more favorable environment.

Without Florida State, Clemson, Notre Dame, North Carolina, that network is getting dropped from basic cable.

Quote:And it's not like the P2 would never look at another C3 school again, any school in the C3 still has a chance to improve their lot either through an improved C3 or through an eventual P2 callup. Getting left out of that power structure is the real nightmare scenario for some schools, say if we end up with a 20/20/20 format and 8 (widely separated) schools back in the g5.

Why do you think the 20/20/20 format is stable? Why does the 3rd Conference get anything but G5 money? That's a 20/20 format in reality.

(05-22-2023 02:51 PM)johnbragg Wrote:  

(05-22-2023 02:31 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  

(05-22-2023 03:45 AM)johnbragg Wrote:  

(05-22-2023 01:15 AM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  

(05-21-2023 08:54 PM)johnbragg Wrote:  It would be a smart move for Memphis, not so much for Pitt.

Can Pitt or Memphis control if the P2 decide to come knockin' in the next decade or sooner though? The kind of investment it would take to vault them into that conversation would render P2 membership moot.

For SOME schools, there's a chance at the Cadillac. However, for most schools, Conference 3 is the best they're gonna get. Maybe it's enough to keep them in the top level of football, maybe it's not, but it's a whole lot better than being the last man standing when all the chairs are gone like Cincinnati was during the breakup of the BE.

But its not better than guaranteed money through 2036.

What's better than guaranteed money through 2036? MOAR guaranteed money through 2036,

That means being in the SEC or Big Ten. That's great for them.

Quote:similar money but more stability, or more money + more stability.

You don't get that if you let FSU and Clemson go. If you let FSU and Clemson go, the ACC and hte ACC NEtwork are less valuable.

And the Big 12 is only guaranteed through 2031.

Quote: Take away the top 4-6 from the ACC and top 4 from the Pac, merge the rest with the big 12 and Pac, slap the ACCN onto all of them, presto, similar money, more stability, everybody wins.

If you take away to the top 4-6 from the ACC, you don't have an ACC Network. ESPN had to spend a lot of leverage to get the ACC Network carried on basic cable across the country, in a more favorable environment.

Without Florida State, Clemson, Notre Dame, North Carolina, that network is getting dropped from basic cable.

Quote:And it's not like the P2 would never look at another C3 school again, any school in the C3 still has a chance to improve their lot either through an improved C3 or through an eventual P2 callup. Getting left out of that power structure is the real nightmare scenario for some schools, say if we end up with a 20/20/20 format and 8 (widely separated) schools back in the g5.

Why do you think the 20/20/20 format is stable? Why does the 3rd Conference get anything but G5 money? That's a 20/20 format in reality.

So, you're saying in 2037 the ACC is dead. It seems like you want to save the ACC, johnbragg, but then you say stuff like this, and its like you're a doctor telling a patient they will die in 13 years. Can the ACC be saved without FSU & Clemson johnbragg??

(05-22-2023 02:51 PM)johnbragg Wrote:  

(05-22-2023 02:31 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  

(05-22-2023 03:45 AM)johnbragg Wrote:  

(05-22-2023 01:15 AM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  

(05-21-2023 08:54 PM)johnbragg Wrote:  It would be a smart move for Memphis, not so much for Pitt.

Can Pitt or Memphis control if the P2 decide to come knockin' in the next decade or sooner though? The kind of investment it would take to vault them into that conversation would render P2 membership moot.

For SOME schools, there's a chance at the Cadillac. However, for most schools, Conference 3 is the best they're gonna get. Maybe it's enough to keep them in the top level of football, maybe it's not, but it's a whole lot better than being the last man standing when all the chairs are gone like Cincinnati was during the breakup of the BE.

But its not better than guaranteed money through 2036.

What's better than guaranteed money through 2036? MOAR guaranteed money through 2036,

That means being in the SEC or Big Ten. That's great for them.

Quote:similar money but more stability, or more money + more stability.

You don't get that if you let FSU and Clemson go. If you let FSU and Clemson go, the ACC and hte ACC NEtwork are less valuable.

And the Big 12 is only guaranteed through 2031.

Quote: Take away the top 4-6 from the ACC and top 4 from the Pac, merge the rest with the big 12 and Pac, slap the ACCN onto all of them, presto, similar money, more stability, everybody wins.

If you take away to the top 4-6 from the ACC, you don't have an ACC Network. ESPN had to spend a lot of leverage to get the ACC Network carried on basic cable across the country, in a more favorable environment.

Without Florida State, Clemson, Notre Dame, North Carolina, that network is getting dropped from basic cable.

Quote:And it's not like the P2 would never look at another C3 school again, any school in the C3 still has a chance to improve their lot either through an improved C3 or through an eventual P2 callup. Getting left out of that power structure is the real nightmare scenario for some schools, say if we end up with a 20/20/20 format and 8 (widely separated) schools back in the g5.

Why do you think the 20/20/20 format is stable? Why does the 3rd Conference get anything but G5 money? That's a 20/20 format in reality.

The bold is why teams want to leave the ACC john. ND already wants to leave and is willing to pay. The ACC is dead man walking. Prove me wrong!!!

(05-21-2023 08:54 PM)johnbragg Wrote:  

(05-21-2023 08:52 PM)Alanda Wrote:  

(05-21-2023 05:08 PM)johnbragg Wrote:  The Powers That BE are trying to suppress my message.

Swapped the link, maybe this one stays up

lol

I'll take our chances on being fired. That means we were at least in the competition.

It would be a smart move for Memphis, not so much for Pitt.

Yeah. I understand what you are saying now.

(05-22-2023 03:01 PM)DawgNBama Wrote:  

(05-22-2023 02:51 PM)johnbragg Wrote:  

(05-22-2023 02:31 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  

(05-22-2023 03:45 AM)johnbragg Wrote:  

(05-22-2023 01:15 AM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  Can Pitt or Memphis control if the P2 decide to come knockin' in the next decade or sooner though? The kind of investment it would take to vault them into that conversation would render P2 membership moot.

For SOME schools, there's a chance at the Cadillac. However, for most schools, Conference 3 is the best they're gonna get. Maybe it's enough to keep them in the top level of football, maybe it's not, but it's a whole lot better than being the last man standing when all the chairs are gone like Cincinnati was during the breakup of the BE.

But its not better than guaranteed money through 2036.

What's better than guaranteed money through 2036? MOAR guaranteed money through 2036,

That means being in the SEC or Big Ten. That's great for them.

Quote:similar money but more stability, or more money + more stability.

You don't get that if you let FSU and Clemson go. If you let FSU and Clemson go, the ACC and hte ACC NEtwork are less valuable.

And the Big 12 is only guaranteed through 2031.

Quote: Take away the top 4-6 from the ACC and top 4 from the Pac, merge the rest with the big 12 and Pac, slap the ACCN onto all of them, presto, similar money, more stability, everybody wins.

If you take away to the top 4-6 from the ACC, you don't have an ACC Network. ESPN had to spend a lot of leverage to get the ACC Network carried on basic cable across the country, in a more favorable environment.

Without Florida State, Clemson, Notre Dame, North Carolina, that network is getting dropped from basic cable.

Quote:And it's not like the P2 would never look at another C3 school again, any school in the C3 still has a chance to improve their lot either through an improved C3 or through an eventual P2 callup. Getting left out of that power structure is the real nightmare scenario for some schools, say if we end up with a 20/20/20 format and 8 (widely separated) schools back in the g5.

Why do you think the 20/20/20 format is stable? Why does the 3rd Conference get anything but G5 money? That's a 20/20 format in reality.

So, you're saying in 2037 the ACC is dead. It seems like you want to save the ACC, johnbragg, but then you say stuff like this, and its like you're a doctor telling a patient they will die in 13 years. Can the ACC be saved without FSU & Clemson johnbragg??

Probably not. But who knows what the situation looks like in 2037, maybe by then the Big TEn and SEC blow up.

(05-22-2023 03:09 PM)DawgNBama Wrote:  

(05-22-2023 02:51 PM)johnbragg Wrote:  

(05-22-2023 02:31 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  

(05-22-2023 03:45 AM)johnbragg Wrote:  

(05-22-2023 01:15 AM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  Can Pitt or Memphis control if the P2 decide to come knockin' in the next decade or sooner though? The kind of investment it would take to vault them into that conversation would render P2 membership moot.

For SOME schools, there's a chance at the Cadillac. However, for most schools, Conference 3 is the best they're gonna get. Maybe it's enough to keep them in the top level of football, maybe it's not, but it's a whole lot better than being the last man standing when all the chairs are gone like Cincinnati was during the breakup of the BE.

But its not better than guaranteed money through 2036.

What's better than guaranteed money through 2036? MOAR guaranteed money through 2036,

That means being in the SEC or Big Ten. That's great for them.

Quote:similar money but more stability, or more money + more stability.

You don't get that if you let FSU and Clemson go. If you let FSU and Clemson go, the ACC and hte ACC NEtwork are less valuable.

And the Big 12 is only guaranteed through 2031.

Quote: Take away the top 4-6 from the ACC and top 4 from the Pac, merge the rest with the big 12 and Pac, slap the ACCN onto all of them, presto, similar money, more stability, everybody wins.

If you take away to the top 4-6 from the ACC, you don't have an ACC Network. ESPN had to spend a lot of leverage to get the ACC Network carried on basic cable across the country, in a more favorable environment.

Without Florida State, Clemson, Notre Dame, North Carolina, that network is getting dropped from basic cable.

Quote:And it's not like the P2 would never look at another C3 school again, any school in the C3 still has a chance to improve their lot either through an improved C3 or through an eventual P2 callup. Getting left out of that power structure is the real nightmare scenario for some schools, say if we end up with a 20/20/20 format and 8 (widely separated) schools back in the g5.

Why do you think the 20/20/20 format is stable? Why does the 3rd Conference get anything but G5 money? That's a 20/20 format in reality.

The bold is why teams want to leave the ACC john. ND already wants to leave and is willing to pay. The ACC is dead man walking. Prove me wrong!!!

I can't prove you wrong because you're right.

But my point is, it's not just the ACC. It's any conference outside the P2.

The ACC just gets to keep cashing P5 checks for as long as they have some P2-quality programs like Florida State and Clemson. Once you don't have those anchors -- well, look what's happening to the Pac 12 TV deal.

The Big 12 and Yormark got the last mid-range contract. But they're not guaranteed to get that next round, when cable is even smaller and ESPN is trying to survive on 30M or so bundled subscriptions and say 20M ESPN DTC subscriptions.

Not everyone’s gonna make it to the p2.
There’s always gonna be losers in musical chairs, so 3rd place better than g5.
Not for pitt tho. No gamble there at all. They’re a lock for the B1G sooner or later. If I was them I’d go g5 before ever joining the 3rd best conference. When that call comes from the B1G, they need to be ready to go in a moments notice, with no strings attached.

(05-22-2023 05:07 PM)Johnny Incognito Wrote:  Not everyone’s gonna make it to the p2.
There’s always gonna be losers in musical chairs, so 3rd place better than g5.

that's the question, isn't it? In 2011 and 2012, everybody, even the biggest Big East sketpics, thought they'd be getting a lot more than any of the non-BCS-AQ conferences.

didn't work out that way.

Quote:Not for pitt tho. No gamble there at all. They’re a lock for the B1G sooner or later. If I was them I’d go g5 before ever joining the 3rd best conference. When that call comes from the B1G, they need to be ready to go in a moments notice, with no strings attached.

Pitt fan represents, I guess.

(05-22-2023 11:08 AM)UCbball21 Wrote:  No one wants to end up in a 3rd conference in a P2+1 scenario but the reality is, for most schools, a 3rd conference is the best opportunity to remain relevant for as long as possible as the networks drive further and further consolidation.

Yes, but that doesn't mean there is any reason for any member of the ACC to willingly move to the 3rd conference or allow the formation of the 3rd conference until they are forced to deal with that scenario. The ACC schools have clearly been trying to find every single possibly way to get out of the GOR, and it doesn't exist unless basically everyone agrees to it. The price to make the lesser half agree to it right now essentially doesn't exist. In 2033 or so the leverage will be different, but right now you'd have to be able to offer those schools some sort of scenario that was better for them from a financial perspective, an access perspective, a power perspective, and a perception perspective than the status quo, and that's not possible.

(05-22-2023 11:08 AM)UCbball21 Wrote:  No one wants to end up in a 3rd conference in a P2+1 scenario but the reality is, for most schools, a 3rd conference is the best opportunity to remain relevant for as long as possible as the networks drive further and further consolidation.

Or, the bottom half to two-thirds of the ACC's best chance to remain relevant for as long as possible is to cling for dear life to Florida State, Clemson and Notre Dame.

(05-22-2023 11:16 AM)Gitanole Wrote:  

(05-22-2023 08:49 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  This reminded me that there has been something chuckle-worthy about the ACC talk coming out of the M7 revelation regarding being the "third-best conference" or whatever.

I mean, imagine five people in a room:

Elon Musk
Bill Gates
Me (net worth, maybe $400,000)
Broke bum #1
Broke bum #2

.. I'd be the "third-richest man" in that room. But that doesn't mean I'd be rich, or anything like Musk or Gates, both of whom have like 250,000 times my net worth. I'd be far closer in wealth to the bums.

Obviously, compared to the P5 situation, that is a vast exaggeration. But it makes the point that you can't eat a percentage, or an ordinal ranking. And I think that being "solid #3" won't mollify the M7 for long.

We'll see.

Yes. Solid #3 counts in conference prestige, in the sense that being #3 beats being #4 or #5. You can take it as certain vindication of the operating philosophy.

For an athletic program what counts is where you are and where your competition is. Your first choice is to have the lead. 'Within striking distance' is good enough. Nothing else is satisfactory.

IMO that is the crux of the matter: FSU and Clemson do not benchmark themselves against Pitt, Syracuse, NC State, BC, Virginia. They benchmark against Florida, LSU, Auburn, Alabama and Georgia. And that's why from their POV things don't look so hot.

It's a fundamental problem when key schools views their benchmark competition as schools outside of its conference. You don't see that in the SEC or B1G. Or even the nB12 or nPAC.

(05-22-2023 11:16 AM)Gitanole Wrote:  

(05-22-2023 08:49 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  This reminded me that there has been something chuckle-worthy about the ACC talk coming out of the M7 revelation regarding being the "third-best conference" or whatever.

I mean, imagine five people in a room:

Elon Musk
Bill Gates
Me (net worth, maybe $400,000)
Broke bum #1
Broke bum #2

.. I'd be the "third-richest man" in that room. But that doesn't mean I'd be rich, or anything like Musk or Gates, both of whom have like 250,000 times my net worth. I'd be far closer in wealth to the bums.

Obviously, compared to the P5 situation, that is a vast exaggeration. But it makes the point that you can't eat a percentage, or an ordinal ranking. And I think that being "solid #3" won't mollify the M7 for long.

We'll see.

Yes. Solid #3 counts in conference prestige, in the sense that being #3 beats being #4 or #5. You can take it as certain vindication of the operating philosophy.

For an athletic program what counts is where you are and where your competition is. Your first choice is to have the lead. 'Within striking distance' is good enough. Nothing else is satisfactory.

Except what evidence do we have that Pitt in Conference 3 will be "within striking distance" of Clemson in the SEC?

Or will "Conference 3" turn out to be as real as Aresco's P6 campaign?
Right now, the ACC is relevant because they have Florida STate and Clemson and an ESPN TV contract. If they hodl, they can keep those things through 2036.
The Big 12 is relevant through 2031 because they have a TV contract, and because they're the second best confernece in Texas. (ACC is second best college conference in Florida, but that fades without Florida STate).

The PAC 12 is probably still relevant because they have -- Oregon and Washington?

The difference between a billion dollars and a million dollars is a billion dollars.