What are the realistic chances Memphis makes the Big XII with UCONN or the ACC as backfill if FSU and Clemson depart?

PROS
- Carnegie R1 research designation
- New President and Provost and academic momentum
- $350 million for Liberty Bowl and FedEx Forum renovations for Football and Basketball
- New Olympic Sports master plan for upgraded facilities
- Smack dab in SEC territory (9 schools within 6 hour radius)

CONS
- Academic perception and enrollment
- Might be too late
- Football attendance struggles

Thoughts?

Very likely…. I think once SDSU and SMU are locked up by the PAC this will happen.

However, poaching the PAC is first choice, and then it could look completely different.

It’s better for the sport to have five major football conferences. I hope Memphis and UNLV end up in the Big XII and there is a resurgence of Runnin’ Rebel basketball.

(05-20-2023 10:22 AM)esayem Wrote:  It’s better for the sport to have five major football conferences. I hope Memphis and UNLV end up in the Big XII and there is a resurgence of Runnin’ Rebel basketball.

This

This long-time Memphis fan is cautiously optimistic a Big 12 invite might happen. It depends, in large part, on what happens with the Pac 12.

Memphis seemingly is being considered by the Big 12. And I would think (as I have previously posted) that consideration is based partly on the fact that Memphis (perhaps more so than any other Big 12 candidate) would bring instant rivalries (due to shared league history) with Cincinnati, Houston and (to a lesser extent) UCF.

Memphis would also bring the potential for strong rivalries with Kansas, BYU and West Virginia, in particular, due to both the UofM and the city of Memphis being significantly different than KU, BYU and WVU (and their respective locales) based on demographics, culture and socio-political considerations. Without going into detail related to what can be sensitive topics (most on this board are savvy enough to understand what I'm suggesting), mentally picture the Memphis football team playing in Morgantown or Provo. Or Memphis hosting Kansas/BYU in basketball at the FedEx Forum. The fans on both sides would be "fired up" and there could potentially be some national interest because of that alone. Memphis would be looked at (whether fairly or not) as a "villain" of sorts. That rivalry element is important for building a league.

On this theme, I seriously doubt the Big 12 would have Memphis as a legit expansion candidate had UM not landed R1 designation and not finalized the Liberty Bowl update plan.

(05-20-2023 10:22 AM)esayem Wrote:  It’s better for the sport to have five major football conferences. I hope Memphis and UNLV end up in the Big XII and there is a resurgence of Runnin’ Rebel basketball.

Well put, my good man.

The odds are against it, but I hope Memphis gets that opportunity. It's a P5 city/fan base/athletics programs.

I think it likely that they will. I do not expect the nB12 to be able to attract nPAC schools, and I can see the nB12 settling on Memphis and UNLV as consolation prizes, though I think they would be mistaken to do so.

IMO, none of the M3 conferences can afford to add G5 programs, as it will lessen their already precarious status, unless they have to, and the nB12 doesn't have to.

(05-20-2023 09:45 AM)tigergatorcyclone Wrote:  What are the realistic chances Memphis makes the Big XII with UCONN or the ACC as backfill if FSU and Clemson depart?

PROS
- Carnegie R1 research designation
- New President and Provost and academic momentum
- $350 million for Liberty Bowl and FedEx Forum renovations for Football and Basketball
- New Olympic Sports master plan for upgraded facilities
- Smack dab in SEC territory (9 schools within 6 hour radius)

CONS
- Academic perception and enrollment
- Might be too late
- Football attendance struggles

Thoughts?

Doubtful.
The top end is consolidating and as a result shrinking, while the middle/bottom will get bigger with the cast offs.

Football attendance is not a negative. Memphis is pretty good as a G5 and was drawing over 40k a few years back when they were winning. The USFL and WFL teams always drew well in Memphis.
I would say Memphis being a relatively poor MSA is a negative. Fedex is there but not a lot else.
Academic perception and being smaller than other P5 urban universities is a negative. Schools with a large commuting component just need to be larger to have the same support as the more rural universities.
A real detriment is the history of cheating. Memphis has been caught and punished a number of times.

San Diego St and SMU to the PAC
Memphis and South Florida to the XII

Done at 73 power schools

(05-20-2023 10:22 AM)esayem Wrote:  It’s better for the sport to have five major football conferences. I hope Memphis and UNLV end up in the Big XII and there is a resurgence of Runnin’ Rebel basketball.

Too late for that. The P2 are at 16. 10-12 conferences at the M level won't work long term. I would have preferred 6 10-12 team conferences, but that possibility went away in 2010 when Nebraska left the Big 12.

Yes, probably to the Big 12.

At this point, I highly doubt the Big 12 can attract anyone from the Pac-12. It would've happened by now. Memphis + UNLV sound good to me, but I'd be entertained if it's Memphis + UConn.

(05-20-2023 02:19 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(05-20-2023 10:22 AM)esayem Wrote:  It’s better for the sport to have five major football conferences. I hope Memphis and UNLV end up in the Big XII and there is a resurgence of Runnin’ Rebel basketball.

Too late for that. The P2 are at 16. 10-12 conferences at the M level won't work long term. I would have preferred 6 10-12 team conferences, but that possibility went away in 2010 when Nebraska left the Big 12.

Let’s say the B1G and SEC both go to 20 which is the balance of manageable, profitable, and scalable. Then you’d have 30ish Power Teams left for a middle 3.

B1G
- Ohio State, Michigan, Michigan State, Penn State
- USC, UCLA, Washington, Oregon
- Nebraska, Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin
- Northwestern, Illinois, Indiana, Purdue
- Maryland, Notre Dame, Rutgers, Virginia

SEC
- Clemson, South Carolina, FSU, Miami, North Carolina
- Florida, Georgia, Tennessee, Alabama, Auburn
- Texas, Texas A&M, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Missouri
- LSU, Ole Miss, Mississippi State, Vanderbilt, Kentucky

XII
- UCF, West Virginia, Cincinnati, Memphis
- Texas Tech, Houston, Baylor, TCU
- Oklahoma State, Kansas, Kansas State, Iowa State
- BYU, Boise State, Fresno State, Colorado State

ACC
- Georgia Tech, Duke, NC State, Wake Forest, ECU, UAB
- Louisville, Pitt, Syracuse, Boston College, USF, Tulane

PAC12
- Oregon State, Washington State, Stanford, Cal, Air Force, UNLV
- Arizona, Arizona State, Utah, Colorado, SDSU, SMU

If Yormark is allowed to expand by 4, Memphis' chances at moving up are very good.

Boise State
Fresno State
Memphis
USF


PAC holds on and adds SDSU and SMU.
UConn stays put.
ACC locked up for at least 10 years.
SEC and Big Ten are fine.

Big XII solidifies their "all time zones" conference.

I think the Big 12 is nuts not to grab SMU. I get that TCU is right there, but strong regional rivalries matter. My guess is that certainly UT and maybe OU were stronger in DFW than either TCU or SMU. I’d grab SMU and Memphis if the 4 Corners are unavailable. Then wait on the ACC.

(05-20-2023 10:50 AM)bill dazzle Wrote:  This long-time Memphis fan is cautiously optimistic a Big 12 invite might happen. It depends, in large part, on what happens with the Pac 12.

Memphis seemingly is being considered by the Big 12. And I would think (as I have previously posted) that consideration is based partly on the fact that Memphis (perhaps more so than any other Big 12 candidate) would bring instant rivalries (due to shared league history) with Cincinnati, Houston and (to a lesser extent) UCF.

Memphis would also bring the potential for strong rivalries with Kansas, BYU and West Virginia, in particular, due to both the UofM and the city of Memphis being significantly different than KU, BYU and WVU (and their respective locales) based on demographics, culture and socio-political considerations. Without going into detail related to what can be sensitive topics (most on this board are savvy enough to understand what I'm suggesting), mentally picture the Memphis football team playing in Morgantown or Provo. Or Memphis hosting Kansas/BYU in basketball at the FedEx Forum. The fans on both sides would be "fired up" and there could potentially be some national interest because of that alone. Memphis would be looked at (whether fairly or not) as a "villain" of sorts. That rivalry element is important for building a league.

On this theme, I seriously doubt the Big 12 would have Memphis as a legit expansion candidate had UM not landed R1 designation and not finalized the Liberty Bowl update plan.

Memphis is very close to the geographic center of the big 12. They’re strong in sports, they spend money on athletics, and they’re improving academically. I don’t think the big 12 expands now, but if they do bring in more g5s, Memphis should be their top choice.

(05-20-2023 03:30 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  

(05-20-2023 10:50 AM)bill dazzle Wrote:  This long-time Memphis fan is cautiously optimistic a Big 12 invite might happen. It depends, in large part, on what happens with the Pac 12.

Memphis seemingly is being considered by the Big 12. And I would think (as I have previously posted) that consideration is based partly on the fact that Memphis (perhaps more so than any other Big 12 candidate) would bring instant rivalries (due to shared league history) with Cincinnati, Houston and (to a lesser extent) UCF.

Memphis would also bring the potential for strong rivalries with Kansas, BYU and West Virginia, in particular, due to both the UofM and the city of Memphis being significantly different than KU, BYU and WVU (and their respective locales) based on demographics, culture and socio-political considerations. Without going into detail related to what can be sensitive topics (most on this board are savvy enough to understand what I'm suggesting), mentally picture the Memphis football team playing in Morgantown or Provo. Or Memphis hosting Kansas/BYU in basketball at the FedEx Forum. The fans on both sides would be "fired up" and there could potentially be some national interest because of that alone. Memphis would be looked at (whether fairly or not) as a "villain" of sorts. That rivalry element is important for building a league.

On this theme, I seriously doubt the Big 12 would have Memphis as a legit expansion candidate had UM not landed R1 designation and not finalized the Liberty Bowl update plan.

Memphis is very close to the geographic center of the big 12. They’re strong in sports, they spend money on athletics, and they’re improving academically. I don’t think the big 12 expands now, but if they do bring in more g5s, Memphis should be their top choice.

I suspect Memphis was next on the list last time. At least it was top 2 with USF.

(05-20-2023 03:06 PM)DuncanMcShane Wrote:  I think the Big 12 is nuts not to grab SMU. I get that TCU is right there, but strong regional rivalries matter. My guess is that certainly UT and maybe OU were stronger in DFW than either TCU or SMU. I’d grab SMU and Memphis if the 4 Corners are unavailable. Then wait on the ACC.

Nah, SMU will be a bad add to either conference, but the Big 12 needs a lot of other regions and fan bases before them anyway.

PAC should consider Navy/Zaga or AFA/Zaga.

CONS

The city of Memphis is not a attractive place people wanna be in or live in but go ahead and keep pretending that doesnt matter.