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David Hale (ESPN): Twitter Thread on ACC Issues
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GoBuckeyes1047 Online
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Post: #1
David Hale (ESPN): Twitter Thread on ACC Issues


At the time of posting, his thread is ongoing (22 tweets so far), but he's talks about what the ACC has done the last 12 months, and what is happening with the widening gap with the ACC and B1G/SEC. He's reported 5 options the ACC can consider to try to close the gap on the B1G/SEC and stay ahead of the Big 12 and PAC and is going into detail on each option what he's hearing.

"So what can be done about it?

Based on my reporting, there are 5 options:
1) everyone waits until 2036-ish
2) ND joins or other expansion
3) ESPN renegotiates
4) The league is dissolved
5) School(s) fight GoR in court"

The part I find interesting is the ACC has looked at Oregon, Washington, SMU, and West Virginia, but the money wasn't there for expansion in tweet 12.
05-19-2023 09:45 AM
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RE: David Hale (ESPN): Twitter Thread on ACC Issues
Order of likeliness:
1. Schools(s) fight GoR in court
2. Everyone waits until 2036ish (yes, expansion)
3. Everyone waits until 2036ish (no, expansion)
4. League is dissolved
5. ESPN renegotiates
6. Any option including Notre Dame as a football member
05-19-2023 09:52 AM
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domer1978 Offline
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RE: David Hale (ESPN): Twitter Thread on ACC Issues
(05-19-2023 09:52 AM)BePcr07 Wrote:  Order of likeliness:
1. Schools(s) fight GoR in court
2. Everyone waits until 2036ish (yes, expansion)
3. Everyone waits until 2036ish (no, expansion)
4. League is dissolved
5. ESPN renegotiates
6. Alien's invade and that nullifies the contract
7.Alabama gets a wandering eye and tell the ACC they are coming
8. Any option including Notre Dame as a football member

FIFY
(This post was last modified: 05-19-2023 10:11 AM by domer1978.)
05-19-2023 10:10 AM
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RUScarlets Offline
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RE: David Hale (ESPN): Twitter Thread on ACC Issues
(05-19-2023 09:45 AM)GoBuckeyes1047 Wrote:  The part I find interesting is the ACC has looked at Oregon, Washington, SMU, and West Virginia, but the money wasn't there for expansion in tweet 12.

Interesting how WVU gets mentioned but not a school like TCU, who'd be deemed more valuable. It's because core Big 12 teams wouldn't consider it for a second aside from schools in the eastern section.

But yeah, outside of ND, expansion makes no sense. Dissolution or court challenge is far more likely. No one can wait until 36'.

Another possibility is breaking the conference into two halves with the option of the northern schools plus perhaps WF/GaTech to go to open market with a base offer from ESPN. Then, maybe they'd get comparable money and expanded playoff access.
(This post was last modified: 05-19-2023 10:43 AM by RUScarlets.)
05-19-2023 10:39 AM
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RE: David Hale (ESPN): Twitter Thread on ACC Issues
(05-19-2023 09:52 AM)BePcr07 Wrote:  Order of likeliness:
1. Schools(s) fight GoR in court
2. Everyone waits until 2036ish (yes, expansion)
3. Everyone waits until 2036ish (no, expansion)
4. League is dissolved
5. ESPN renegotiates
6. Any option including Notre Dame as a football member

New-to-me tidbit: Swarbrick wasn't even at the meeting.

(Notre Dame isn't joining)
05-19-2023 11:23 AM
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jrj84105 Offline
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RE: David Hale (ESPN): Twitter Thread on ACC Issues
Quote: What about other expansion options? ACC has looked at a few, including Oregon, Washington, SMU and West Virginia. From what I've been told, the $$ just aren't there. I can explain why but honestly, you don't want to hear the TV minutiae. 12/

That said, there are some admins who are frustrated the ACC isn't considering some more aggressive expansion tactics to at least do *something*. I've heard some very outside the box ideas that are at least intriguing. But bigger issue is this should've happened years ago. 13/

I beg to differ in the bolded section.

Also strongly agree that the PAC and ACC should have figured something substantive out instead of joining the alliance.
(This post was last modified: 05-19-2023 11:39 AM by jrj84105.)
05-19-2023 11:37 AM
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RE: David Hale (ESPN): Twitter Thread on ACC Issues
(05-19-2023 11:37 AM)jrj84105 Wrote:  
Quote: What about other expansion options? ACC has looked at a few, including Oregon, Washington, SMU and West Virginia. From what I've been told, the $$ just aren't there. I can explain why but honestly, you don't want to hear the TV minutiae. 12/

That said, there are some admins who are frustrated the ACC isn't considering some more aggressive expansion tactics to at least do *something*. I've heard some very outside the box ideas that are at least intriguing. But bigger issue is this should've happened years ago. 13/

I beg to differ in the bolded section.

Also strongly agree that the PAC and ACC should have figured something substantive out instead of joining the alliance.

Ha! I just asked him directly about the bolded there on Twitter because the "TV minutiae" is essentially the entire ballgame for realignment! We'll see if I get a response. I'm quite curious about how Washington and Oregon in particular wouldn't add more TV money to the ACC because if that's the case, then it stands to reason that they would be even less likely to add money to the Big Ten (in which case the Pac-12 isn't likely to break apart in the near future).
05-19-2023 12:02 PM
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RE: David Hale (ESPN): Twitter Thread on ACC Issues
(05-19-2023 10:39 AM)RUScarlets Wrote:  
(05-19-2023 09:45 AM)GoBuckeyes1047 Wrote:  The part I find interesting is the ACC has looked at Oregon, Washington, SMU, and West Virginia, but the money wasn't there for expansion in tweet 12.

Interesting how WVU gets mentioned but not a school like TCU, who'd be deemed more valuable. It's because core Big 12 teams wouldn't consider it for a second aside from schools in the eastern section.

But yeah, outside of ND, expansion makes no sense. Dissolution or court challenge is far more likely. No one can wait until 36'.

Another possibility is breaking the conference into two halves with the option of the northern schools plus perhaps WF/GaTech to go to open market with a base offer from ESPN. Then, maybe they'd get comparable money and expanded playoff access.

Maybe they'd prefer Eastern teams to lose by 70 in the Title game.
05-19-2023 12:04 PM
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RE: David Hale (ESPN): Twitter Thread on ACC Issues
(05-19-2023 11:23 AM)johnbragg Wrote:  
(05-19-2023 09:52 AM)BePcr07 Wrote:  Order of likeliness:
1. Schools(s) fight GoR in court
2. Everyone waits until 2036ish (yes, expansion)
3. Everyone waits until 2036ish (no, expansion)
4. League is dissolved
5. ESPN renegotiates
6. Any option including Notre Dame as a football member

New-to-me tidbit: Swarbrick wasn't even at the meeting.

(Notre Dame isn't joining)

Why would they, when theynar permitted to operate outside the rules.
05-19-2023 12:05 PM
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GarnetAndBlue Offline
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RE: David Hale (ESPN): Twitter Thread on ACC Issues
(05-19-2023 11:23 AM)johnbragg Wrote:  [quote='BePcr07' pid='18943869' dateline='1684507970']
Order of likeliness:
1. Schools(s) fight GoR in court
2. Everyone waits until 2036ish (yes, expansion)
3. Everyone waits until 2036ish (no, expansion)
4. League is dissolved
5. ESPN renegotiates
6. Any option including Notre Dame as a football member

There isn't going to be any expansion of the ACC unless it begins with contraction (openings to backfill). See a decade ago when UL backfilled UMd. The barriers of a true addition are bigger than they've ever been. Stuck.
05-19-2023 12:11 PM
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RE: David Hale (ESPN): Twitter Thread on ACC Issues
(05-19-2023 12:02 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  
(05-19-2023 11:37 AM)jrj84105 Wrote:  
Quote: What about other expansion options? ACC has looked at a few, including Oregon, Washington, SMU and West Virginia. From what I've been told, the $$ just aren't there. I can explain why but honestly, you don't want to hear the TV minutiae. 12/

That said, there are some admins who are frustrated the ACC isn't considering some more aggressive expansion tactics to at least do *something*. I've heard some very outside the box ideas that are at least intriguing. But bigger issue is this should've happened years ago. 13/

I beg to differ in the bolded section.

Also strongly agree that the PAC and ACC should have figured something substantive out instead of joining the alliance.

Ha! I just asked him directly about the bolded there on Twitter because the "TV minutiae" is essentially the entire ballgame for realignment! We'll see if I get a response. I'm quite curious about how Washington and Oregon in particular wouldn't add more TV money to the ACC because if that's the case, then it stands to reason that they would be even less likely to add money to the Big Ten (in which case the Pac-12 isn't likely to break apart in the near future).

Zero chance Oregon and Washington join ACC with grant of rights going on until 2036. The money to bring in UW & UO probably isn’t there for ESPN to entice both programs to ACC. But that is a large cry from possibility of CBS, NBC and Fox Sports and possibly new media company having money to bring in Oregon and Washington into Big Ten on steep discount. Can’t compare the 2 different situations in my opinion.
05-19-2023 12:12 PM
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RE: David Hale (ESPN): Twitter Thread on ACC Issues
(05-19-2023 12:12 PM)Outsider6 Wrote:  
(05-19-2023 12:02 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  
(05-19-2023 11:37 AM)jrj84105 Wrote:  
Quote: What about other expansion options? ACC has looked at a few, including Oregon, Washington, SMU and West Virginia. From what I've been told, the $$ just aren't there. I can explain why but honestly, you don't want to hear the TV minutiae. 12/

That said, there are some admins who are frustrated the ACC isn't considering some more aggressive expansion tactics to at least do *something*. I've heard some very outside the box ideas that are at least intriguing. But bigger issue is this should've happened years ago. 13/

I beg to differ in the bolded section.

Also strongly agree that the PAC and ACC should have figured something substantive out instead of joining the alliance.

Ha! I just asked him directly about the bolded there on Twitter because the "TV minutiae" is essentially the entire ballgame for realignment! We'll see if I get a response. I'm quite curious about how Washington and Oregon in particular wouldn't add more TV money to the ACC because if that's the case, then it stands to reason that they would be even less likely to add money to the Big Ten (in which case the Pac-12 isn't likely to break apart in the near future).

Zero chance Oregon and Washington join ACC with grant of rights going on until 2036. The money to bring in UW & UO probably isn’t there for ESPN to entice both programs to ACC. But that is a large cry from possibility of CBS, NBC and Fox Sports and possibly new media company having money to bring in Oregon and Washington into Big Ten on steep discount. Can’t compare the 2 different situations in my opinion.

And playing the Big 10 teams draws bigger ratings than playing the ACC teams. I wouldn't go so far to say you couldn't compare, but there are differences.
05-19-2023 12:25 PM
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RE: David Hale (ESPN): Twitter Thread on ACC Issues
(05-19-2023 12:02 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  
(05-19-2023 11:37 AM)jrj84105 Wrote:  
Quote: What about other expansion options? ACC has looked at a few, including Oregon, Washington, SMU and West Virginia. From what I've been told, the $$ just aren't there. I can explain why but honestly, you don't want to hear the TV minutiae. 12/

That said, there are some admins who are frustrated the ACC isn't considering some more aggressive expansion tactics to at least do *something*. I've heard some very outside the box ideas that are at least intriguing. But bigger issue is this should've happened years ago. 13/

I beg to differ in the bolded section.

Also strongly agree that the PAC and ACC should have figured something substantive out instead of joining the alliance.

Ha! I just asked him directly about the bolded there on Twitter because the "TV minutiae" is essentially the entire ballgame for realignment! We'll see if I get a response. I'm quite curious about how Washington and Oregon in particular wouldn't add more TV money to the ACC because if that's the case, then it stands to reason that they would be even less likely to add money to the Big Ten (in which case the Pac-12 isn't likely to break apart in the near future).

Just spitballing, but could also tie in with ACC contract. I am sure the conference could get a bump to make everyone even, but ESPN wouldn't necessarily have to offer anything extra for new members and offering to pay more would destroy the PAC-12 which is probably not in ESPNs interest (consolidation is costing the networks more).

That would actually be similar to the PAC-16 proposal. ESPN and Fox kept Big 12 payment same for 10 members and no championship game to save conference. I think convincing ESPN to pay more to help consolidation of conferences will be tough.
05-19-2023 12:38 PM
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RE: David Hale (ESPN): Twitter Thread on ACC Issues
(05-19-2023 10:10 AM)domer1978 Wrote:  
(05-19-2023 09:52 AM)BePcr07 Wrote:  Order of likeliness:
1. Schools(s) fight GoR in court
2. Everyone waits until 2036ish (yes, expansion)
3. Everyone waits until 2036ish (no, expansion)
4. League is dissolved
5. ESPN renegotiates
6. Alien's invade and that nullifies the contract
7.Alabama gets a wandering eye and tell the ACC they are coming
8. Any option including Notre Dame as a football member

FIFY

There is only one option which is feasible, dissolution.

Fighting the GOR in court will take years and cost large sums they don't have.

Anything that waits until 2036ish is essentially a Do Not Resuscitate order. It's like saying, "Wake me up when it's over."

ESPN won't renegotiate unless they are rearranging, and maybe not even then. They have to get something out of it to do it.

Aliens are among us already. Just listen to government officials from Canada, Brazil and Israel. Didn't you believe Mulder and Scully?

Alabama could happen if Texas takes over the SEC and the Alamo is moved to Birmingham.

Notre Dame? ACC? Is Hell Freezing Over?
05-19-2023 12:47 PM
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RE: David Hale (ESPN): Twitter Thread on ACC Issues
(05-19-2023 09:45 AM)GoBuckeyes1047 Wrote:  

At the time of posting, his thread is ongoing (22 tweets so far), but he's talks about what the ACC has done the last 12 months, and what is happening with the widening gap with the ACC and B1G/SEC. He's reported 5 options the ACC can consider to try to close the gap on the B1G/SEC and stay ahead of the Big 12 and PAC and is going into detail on each option what he's hearing.

"So what can be done about it?

Based on my reporting, there are 5 options:
1) everyone waits until 2036-ish
2) ND joins or other expansion
3) ESPN renegotiates
4) The league is dissolved
5) School(s) fight GoR in court"

The part I find interesting is the ACC has looked at Oregon, Washington, SMU, and West Virginia, but the money wasn't there for expansion in tweet 12.

The money isn’t there for expansion bc UW and UO are 3k miles away, all the other good expansion candidates are already in the P2, and the ACC is not currently being underpaid despite all their protestations to the contrary. Oh, and ESPN gets to arbitrarily decide how much to pay the ACC for the next 13 years for any expansion candidate.

The best solution for the ACC depends on what the SEC and ESPN want. If the SEC just wants 2 schools then they could let them out and merge everyone else with the big 12. Similar money, higher stability for the left behinds, and around an extra $50m a year from ESPN for the other 2…maybe that would work for them. However, if it’s 6+ schools on our list as JR theorizes (and he’s been right about a lot of other things), then you’d struggle to convince the big 12 to add the 8 leftovers, and you’d really struggle to convince ESPN to pony up the extra $150m a year to basically destroy the ACC. THE 8 leftovers could be convinced with more money and stability as above if the other 2 were on board, however.

Nice tweet storm by David Hale, I wasn’t following him before but I am now.
05-19-2023 01:10 PM
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RE: David Hale (ESPN): Twitter Thread on ACC Issues
(05-19-2023 12:47 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(05-19-2023 10:10 AM)domer1978 Wrote:  
(05-19-2023 09:52 AM)BePcr07 Wrote:  Order of likeliness:
1. Schools(s) fight GoR in court
2. Everyone waits until 2036ish (yes, expansion)
3. Everyone waits until 2036ish (no, expansion)
4. League is dissolved
5. ESPN renegotiates
6. Alien's invade and that nullifies the contract
7.Alabama gets a wandering eye and tell the ACC they are coming
8. Any option including Notre Dame as a football member

FIFY

There is only one option which is feasible, dissolution.

Fighting the GOR in court will take years and cost large sums they don't have.

Anything that waits until 2036ish is essentially a Do Not Resuscitate order. It's like saying, "Wake me up when it's over."

ESPN won't renegotiate unless they are rearranging, and maybe not even then. They have to get something out of it to do it.

Aliens are among us already. Just listen to government officials from Canada, Brazil and Israel. Didn't you believe Mulder and Scully?

Alabama could happen if Texas takes over the SEC and the Alamo is moved to Birmingham.

Notre Dame? ACC? Is Hell Freezing Over?

Well, amazingly enough, I actually agree with you on that point. That doesn’t mean that I think dissolution is likely in the short-term (meaning the next 3 or so years), but that’s something that at least the schools that want to leave can control as long as they have the requisite numbers to dissolve. (I’m going to take an educated guess that dissolution ultimately needs a supermajority vote just like other major conference decisions. If the ACC is truly just silent and deferring to the simple majority dissolution standard under NC law, then that’s a major error by everyone’s attorneys. Non-profits in NC are allowed to have a more stringent dissolution requirement than the law - they just can’t have it less stringent, such as allowing a minority vote to pass a dissolution.) Of course, this is assuming the parties are comfortable that the GOR obligations are truly terminated due to a dissolution (which isn’t a given). The other trick is how many schools does it really take for a dissolution (as the practical difference between needing 8 votes versus 10 or 12 is massive).

Everything else is either an incalculable risk (challenging the GOR with so much time left on the contract) or hoping another party does something that’s against its own self-interest (ESPN paying more money or ND giving up independence). Even I (a believer in the huge legal risk in challenging the GOR) haven’t thought that schools totally sit around until 2036. I’ve looked at 2030 as the target date with that being where the GOR damages from leaving early would be conceivably manageable and the Big Ten would be negotiating a new TV contract.
(This post was last modified: 05-19-2023 01:19 PM by Frank the Tank.)
05-19-2023 01:12 PM
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RE: David Hale (ESPN): Twitter Thread on ACC Issues
(05-19-2023 01:10 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  
(05-19-2023 09:45 AM)GoBuckeyes1047 Wrote:  

At the time of posting, his thread is ongoing (22 tweets so far), but he's talks about what the ACC has done the last 12 months, and what is happening with the widening gap with the ACC and B1G/SEC. He's reported 5 options the ACC can consider to try to close the gap on the B1G/SEC and stay ahead of the Big 12 and PAC and is going into detail on each option what he's hearing.

"So what can be done about it?

Based on my reporting, there are 5 options:
1) everyone waits until 2036-ish
2) ND joins or other expansion
3) ESPN renegotiates
4) The league is dissolved
5) School(s) fight GoR in court"

The part I find interesting is the ACC has looked at Oregon, Washington, SMU, and West Virginia, but the money wasn't there for expansion in tweet 12.

The money isn’t there for expansion bc UW and UO are 3k miles away, all the other good expansion candidates are already in the P2, and the ACC is not currently being underpaid despite all their protestations to the contrary. Oh, and ESPN gets to arbitrarily decide how much to pay the ACC for the next 13 years for any expansion candidate.

The best solution for the ACC depends on what the SEC and ESPN want. If the SEC just wants 2 schools then they could let them out and merge everyone else with the big 12. Similar money, higher stability for the left behinds, and around an extra $50m a year from ESPN for the other 2…maybe that would work for them. However, if it’s 6+ schools on our list as JR theorizes (and he’s been right about a lot of other things), then you’d struggle to convince the big 12 to add the 8 leftovers, and you’d really struggle to convince ESPN to pony up the extra $150m a year to basically destroy the ACC. THE 8 leftovers could be convinced with more money and stability as above if the other 2 were on board, however.

Nice tweet storm by David Hale, I wasn’t following him before but I am now.

You are missing the T3 element. Say what you will about cord cutting and the inability to monetize streaming effectively due to poor opportunities for advertising, but T3 conference networks do make money, not huge money, but consistent and decent money.

The whole idea behind combining he remnants of the PAC and ACC into the Big 12 is not that they would improve upon the low 30 million range in pay for T1 and T2 content, but rather that the combined scope of a T3 network might put them much closer to 40 million without the Carrier having to raise their basic media contract. So, it's not quite a dire as you make it out to be.

Now as to the Big 12, with Cincinnati and West Virginia circling the Northeast I could easily see Big 12 interest in Boston College, Pittsburgh and Syracuse if those have not received better offers. Even South Florida and Georgia Tech could help them build up a presence in the Southeast. Toss in Tulane and Memphis and you start tying some things together.

What I think is more likely, should the additions only be two from the ACC to the SEC, and those moved for essentially further segregation by valuation (FSU/Clemson), would be finding a way to build around the Tobacco Road core. In that world I do see a advantages in a PAC 12/ACC merger, just not with a lot of cross continental games (more like 1 away and 1 home for each). The values of the two are very similar and have essentially been that way since the A5 became a thing. In that kind of merger again the ACCN could make the difference in a positive way. The PAC schools could liquidate their network and move to one with a consistent payout. The ACCN would be massive, larger than the SECN in reach. It would even work just fine if the SEC took 4. ESPN would not be losing product but gaining it and with more time slots to market.
(This post was last modified: 05-19-2023 01:27 PM by JRsec.)
05-19-2023 01:25 PM
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bryanw1995 Offline
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RE: David Hale (ESPN): Twitter Thread on ACC Issues
(05-19-2023 01:25 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(05-19-2023 01:10 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  
(05-19-2023 09:45 AM)GoBuckeyes1047 Wrote:  

At the time of posting, his thread is ongoing (22 tweets so far), but he's talks about what the ACC has done the last 12 months, and what is happening with the widening gap with the ACC and B1G/SEC. He's reported 5 options the ACC can consider to try to close the gap on the B1G/SEC and stay ahead of the Big 12 and PAC and is going into detail on each option what he's hearing.

"So what can be done about it?

Based on my reporting, there are 5 options:
1) everyone waits until 2036-ish
2) ND joins or other expansion
3) ESPN renegotiates
4) The league is dissolved
5) School(s) fight GoR in court"

The part I find interesting is the ACC has looked at Oregon, Washington, SMU, and West Virginia, but the money wasn't there for expansion in tweet 12.

The money isn’t there for expansion bc UW and UO are 3k miles away, all the other good expansion candidates are already in the P2, and the ACC is not currently being underpaid despite all their protestations to the contrary. Oh, and ESPN gets to arbitrarily decide how much to pay the ACC for the next 13 years for any expansion candidate.

The best solution for the ACC depends on what the SEC and ESPN want. If the SEC just wants 2 schools then they could let them out and merge everyone else with the big 12. Similar money, higher stability for the left behinds, and around an extra $50m a year from ESPN for the other 2…maybe that would work for them. However, if it’s 6+ schools on our list as JR theorizes (and he’s been right about a lot of other things), then you’d struggle to convince the big 12 to add the 8 leftovers, and you’d really struggle to convince ESPN to pony up the extra $150m a year to basically destroy the ACC. THE 8 leftovers could be convinced with more money and stability as above if the other 2 were on board, however.

Nice tweet storm by David Hale, I wasn’t following him before but I am now.

You are missing the T3 element. Say what you will about cord cutting and the inability to monetize streaming effectively due to poor opportunities for advertising, but T3 conference networks do make money, not huge money, but consistent and decent money.

The whole idea behind combining he remnants of the PAC and ACC into the Big 12 is not that they would improve upon the low 30 million range in pay for T1 and T2 content, but rather that the combined scope of a T3 network might put them much closer to 40 million without the Carrier having to raise their basic media contract. So, it's not quite a dire as you make it out to be.

Now as to the Big 12, with Cincinnati and West Virginia circling the Northeast I could easily see Big 12 interest in Boston College, Pittsburgh and Syracuse if those have not received better offers. Even South Florida and Georgia Tech could help them build up a presence in the Southeast. Toss in Tulane and Memphis and you start tying some things together.

What I think is more likely, should the additions only be two from the ACC to the SEC, and those moved for essentially further segregation by valuation (FSU/Clemson), would be finding a way to build around the Tobacco Road core. In that world I do see a advantages in a PAC 12/ACC merger, just not with a lot of cross continental games (more like 1 away and 1 home for each). The values of the two are very similar and have essentially been that way since the A5 became a thing. In that kind of merger again the ACCN could make the difference in a positive way. The PAC schools could liquidate their network and move to one with a consistent payout. The ACCN would be massive, larger than the SECN in reach. It would even work just fine if the SEC took 4. ESPN would not be losing product but gaining it and with more time slots to market.

I suspect that a big issue right now is that there are too many options. 2/4/6/8 to SEC? Pac schools, just some but not all Pac, merge with big 12, hold off until 2031 so they can take some but not all big 12? Can they convince ESPN to open up their wallet? Fox? What if some of the schools prefer the B1G to the SEC?

University Presidents are not noted for their daring natures. In the absence of one clear alternative, one that involves a significant raise for 2/3 or 3/4 of the schools or whatever number they need, they're likely to maintain the status quo for now.
05-19-2023 01:52 PM
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JRsec Offline
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Post: #19
RE: David Hale (ESPN): Twitter Thread on ACC Issues
(05-19-2023 01:52 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  
(05-19-2023 01:25 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(05-19-2023 01:10 PM)bryanw1995 Wrote:  
(05-19-2023 09:45 AM)GoBuckeyes1047 Wrote:  

At the time of posting, his thread is ongoing (22 tweets so far), but he's talks about what the ACC has done the last 12 months, and what is happening with the widening gap with the ACC and B1G/SEC. He's reported 5 options the ACC can consider to try to close the gap on the B1G/SEC and stay ahead of the Big 12 and PAC and is going into detail on each option what he's hearing.

"So what can be done about it?

Based on my reporting, there are 5 options:
1) everyone waits until 2036-ish
2) ND joins or other expansion
3) ESPN renegotiates
4) The league is dissolved
5) School(s) fight GoR in court"

The part I find interesting is the ACC has looked at Oregon, Washington, SMU, and West Virginia, but the money wasn't there for expansion in tweet 12.

The money isn’t there for expansion bc UW and UO are 3k miles away, all the other good expansion candidates are already in the P2, and the ACC is not currently being underpaid despite all their protestations to the contrary. Oh, and ESPN gets to arbitrarily decide how much to pay the ACC for the next 13 years for any expansion candidate.

The best solution for the ACC depends on what the SEC and ESPN want. If the SEC just wants 2 schools then they could let them out and merge everyone else with the big 12. Similar money, higher stability for the left behinds, and around an extra $50m a year from ESPN for the other 2…maybe that would work for them. However, if it’s 6+ schools on our list as JR theorizes (and he’s been right about a lot of other things), then you’d struggle to convince the big 12 to add the 8 leftovers, and you’d really struggle to convince ESPN to pony up the extra $150m a year to basically destroy the ACC. THE 8 leftovers could be convinced with more money and stability as above if the other 2 were on board, however.

Nice tweet storm by David Hale, I wasn’t following him before but I am now.

You are missing the T3 element. Say what you will about cord cutting and the inability to monetize streaming effectively due to poor opportunities for advertising, but T3 conference networks do make money, not huge money, but consistent and decent money.

The whole idea behind combining he remnants of the PAC and ACC into the Big 12 is not that they would improve upon the low 30 million range in pay for T1 and T2 content, but rather that the combined scope of a T3 network might put them much closer to 40 million without the Carrier having to raise their basic media contract. So, it's not quite a dire as you make it out to be.

Now as to the Big 12, with Cincinnati and West Virginia circling the Northeast I could easily see Big 12 interest in Boston College, Pittsburgh and Syracuse if those have not received better offers. Even South Florida and Georgia Tech could help them build up a presence in the Southeast. Toss in Tulane and Memphis and you start tying some things together.

What I think is more likely, should the additions only be two from the ACC to the SEC, and those moved for essentially further segregation by valuation (FSU/Clemson), would be finding a way to build around the Tobacco Road core. In that world I do see a advantages in a PAC 12/ACC merger, just not with a lot of cross continental games (more like 1 away and 1 home for each). The values of the two are very similar and have essentially been that way since the A5 became a thing. In that kind of merger again the ACCN could make the difference in a positive way. The PAC schools could liquidate their network and move to one with a consistent payout. The ACCN would be massive, larger than the SECN in reach. It would even work just fine if the SEC took 4. ESPN would not be losing product but gaining it and with more time slots to market.

I suspect that a big issue right now is that there are too many options. 2/4/6/8 to SEC? Pac schools, just some but not all Pac, merge with big 12, hold off until 2031 so they can take some but not all big 12? Can they convince ESPN to open up their wallet? Fox? What if some of the schools prefer the B1G to the SEC?

University Presidents are not noted for their daring natures. In the absence of one clear alternative, one that involves a significant raise for 2/3 or 3/4 of the schools or whatever number they need, they're likely to maintain the status quo for now.

I can't stress this enough, nobody is waiting until the 2030s. Too much left on the table for schools, conferences, and networks.
05-19-2023 01:57 PM
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PlayBall! Offline
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Post: #20
RE: David Hale (ESPN): Twitter Thread on ACC Issues
(05-19-2023 12:47 PM)JRsec Wrote:  There is only one option which is feasible, dissolution.

The B1G's, SEC's, Big XII's, and ACC's commissioners need to meet, in person, in private, to discuss things and work a deal. With some kind of bidding arrangement, if the first round does not yield a concensus solution.

Best result, IMHO, is that all ACC's teams find an optimal home. And with at least equal to what the ACC's would have been, plus a one-time bonus. If any schools are left behind, e.g., WF, they, like Rice in the SWC, should get a nice golden parachute via the ACC's assets that are not divided; they can then invite the AAC to join and thus the ACC will continue. Including its commissioner's job with no pay cut.
(This post was last modified: 05-19-2023 01:59 PM by PlayBall!.)
05-19-2023 01:58 PM
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