JRsec
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RE: Has ND on NBC run its course?
(05-09-2023 07:00 PM)Ned Low Wrote: (05-09-2023 12:34 PM)JRsec Wrote: (05-09-2023 11:50 AM)Ned Low Wrote: (05-08-2023 10:26 PM)JRsec Wrote: (05-08-2023 09:49 PM)Ned Low Wrote: I absolutely realize that and as I stated, "you (the poster) may be right". I am only repeating what I have read and been told.
I firmly believe that Tobacco Road wants to stay together. They are an institution; this much is well known in these parts. At the end of the day, that "institution" may not be enough to hold them together but who knows how that will affect decision making.
Such tradition has worked at Notre Dame. Their AD has even stated in the recent past that conference affiliation would mean that they could make a lot more money... yet they also pass on it. Why is that? I can tell you why: the decision makers and the fans want them to stay independent and are willing to find ways to make it work.
It should also be mentioned that the political fallout would be devastating should Tobacco Road be split up. I live here and should know. Their grads dominate the state legislature.
Both UNC and NCSU are under the same board of governors as part of the same school system. Splitting those two up in particular will not be easy either. I have come to believe that if you take one, you will have to take both... although I could see UNC in the B10 and NCSU in the SEC without any problems whatsoever... as long as Wake and Duke were included as well.
If the SEC or the B10 would approach Tobacco Road in it's entirety, they would be gone ASAP. Such an arrangement might work, especially in the B10's case.
Why in the hell do posters believe this, and don't believe Tobacco Road has brands which are valuable to ESPN, and which ESPN would be reluctant to surrender? Why do you assume the SEC would have no interest in 2 states, 3 AAU schools and two of the top 4 winningest college hoops brands? Not to mention the nearly 20 million people they would add to the SEC footprint, just a couple million shy of another Florida? And if ESPN can hold those brands in the SEC, or in a merged ACC with the SEC, why would the Big 10 be the likely destination? All of these assumptions fly in the face of reality! Yet that is what you profess to believe?
Then to top off the illogic you say the Big 10 could take them all? Really, what the happens to N.C. State? I mean if Virginia, Duke and UNC can't leave N.C. State to head to the SEC, what makes you think the SEC which is closer, earns more total revenue than any conference decides they won't take #2 to help the trio of prizes waltz off to the Big 10 and tells Virginia Tech to take a hike as well? Why doesn't your logic work in reverse as well as forward?
You give ND as an example of eschewing more money for independence, and give them as an illustration as to why UVa, UNC and Duke could opt to stay together, protecting N.C. State, Va. Tech, and Wake Forest, but then assert the Big 10 is more likely? When you know they won't take N.C. State and Va Tech. And you believe that's going to help Tobacco Road? Why? More money? The very thing you said they would choose to eschew to keep their buddies protected and the gang together.
There are way to many breaks in logic here. Of course, the Big 10 would take simply Virginia, Duke, and North Carolina. So too would the SEC. Neither the Big 10 or SEC will take the remainder to help the other land the prizes. To think otherwise is simply wishful thinking.
And all of this totally dismisses ESPN's desires for a product they own the rights to until 2036. If anything happens which keeps Tobacco Road together, and makes them more money it will be an in house ESPN merger with the SEC. NOT A MOVE TO THE BIG 10 where nothing is left for the little brothers.
So, this scenario makes no sense at all. It is conceivable that Virginia, Virginia Tech, North Carolina and N.C. State could move to the SEC under the right circumstances, but not to the Big 10. They won't take Va. Tech and N.C. State. But I do believe they want to stay together. But they'll need more money for FSU and Clemson to make it happen, otherwise they lose ground without expanding. Hence potential for a merger. Therefore Ned, the ACC will either do nothing, merge, or relinquish Florida State and Clemson to another ESPN conference. Which do you think is the wisest option? Only one assures success.
JR, I am not sure why you are ranting but to clarify:
(1) I have not stated that the SEC/ESPN would not take all of the Tobacco Road schools. If you assumed otherwise, that's on you. What I did imply is that it would be easier to add one if a conference added all. Further, throwing UVA and Clemson into the mix would make it even easier but in order to do that, it's possible that VPI will need to be included; remember that political pressure was applied to UVA in order to get VPI added to the ACC back in the day.
(2) The question does need to be asked: who is more likely to add (or desire) all of Tobacco Road? The SEC or the B10? North Carolina (the Triangle in particular) has many more B10 alums and fans living here than the SEC does; there are times that it feels as if we are suffering another War of Northern Aggression in these parts when you factor in all of the midwesterners who have moved here (my wife is from MI, btw). The B10 also values academic prowess more so than the SEC does; I don't think that this is debatable. With that said, the B10 may be more willing to add all of Tobacco Road than the SEC is, accepting the fact that while Wake Forest is not an athletic powerhouse or much of a market draw, they are highly ranked academically (with Vandy being the only school ranked higher than them in the SEC according to the USNWR rankings).
(2) I also did not state the such a partial merger between the ACC and the SEC would not occur. The SEC would be wise to add NCSU, UNC, Duke, Wake Forest, UVA, Virginia Tech, Clemson and Florida State. The B10 would be as well. However, I have serious doubts that all of the Tobacco Road properties would be equally interested in joining one conference or another. For example, my hunch is that Duke and UVA would rather be in the B10 if they had to choose. VPI and Clemson on the other hand would rather be in the SEC. UNC seems to have those who will take either and NCSU just wants to be with them. Wake Forest will go wherever the rest of the Tobacco Road schools wind up. Importantly, all would rather be associated with each other. Florida State just wants out, period but they prefer the SEC.
(3) Tobacco Road could really care less about Florida State. They like Clemson and would prefer that they remain associated. However, they value their relationship with each other more and that could be a complicating matter for any conference who wants to add any part of the group especially if that conference wants to break them up. That's all I'm saying.
(4) As for "logic": I think that you may misunderstand the term. Logic is simply reasoning that follows strict principles of validity and nothing that I have stated above is invalid. I'm nitpicking but think that this should be pointed out.
Nice attempt at a clean up. But your previous post was rife with breaks in reasoning. I have never misunderstood logic or common sense, though I find many academicians can use logic to arrive at ridiculous conclusions. My point was a simple one. The Big 10 is not more likely to take all of Tobacco Road. Nobody is. The only way it happens is in a merger. So, your premise was absurd. I bolded your final assertion, which is what I responded to. Wake Forest and possibly N.C. State will never be in a package of schools (less than a full merger) for any conference.
There is a rule of thumb which was once applied to considerations for adding an additional school from the same conference. 1 school to 5 million in population can be additive depending upon other factors. There are over 10 million people in North Carolina. You have 4 P conference schools. This is why the WSJ valuation numbers for North Carolina schools is lower. It is what consolidation is trying to clean up. Texas and A&M have separated themselves from a crowd of Texas schools, good schools. In Texas, two were needed to deliver the whole state with a supermajority of college sports viewers. In Florida that number is two as well if FSU is the second school. In North Carolina it is one.
The number of Big 10 alums in the Research Triangle is important to the Big 10 so there would be interest. But it is insignificant to the number of North Carolina fans who would prefer overwhelmingly to keep the ACC and prefer to keep the focus Southern second. Twice now when stressed representatives of UNC have talked with the SEC. This isn't fan talk.
Therefore, your assertion that the Big 10 is more likely to take Tobacco Road schools as a group is spurious. It would have been spurious if you had said the SEC. Nobody is taking all of the Tobacco Road schools unless there is a merger. Nobody is going to merge at pro rata. And there is nothing illogical about that assessment.
If you meant to say that neither the SEC or the B10 would take the entirety of the Tobacco Road schools together, as a group then you are probably correct. The only thing that I did is make the factual observation that all of those schools wish to stay together and that taking all of them would make getting some of them easier.
Further, there are a lot of assumptions being made about this issue and others regarding realignment. I would never have assumed that the B10 would have added Rutgers and Maryland for example, as both were terrible athletic additions by B10 standards. Boston College in the ACC was laughable at first. The idea that the B10 might take only USC and UCLA from the PAC, leaving them on an island of sorts was unimaginable. The SEC added Oklahoma, who left Oklahoma State behind... something that many though impossible (akin to the notion of KU leaving KSU behind) years ago. The SEC also added South Carolina which was also laughable at the time. Many of the assumptions being made by fans of these leagues nowadays are no different. The fact is that none of us know what is going on in the minds of administrators and those who make decisions. In addition, many of us (including myself) assume that the B10 and SEC will continue to expand when in fact, they may not (this is especially true in the SEC's case because they have already won this war and really don't need to expand for any reason other than to preempt the B10's expansions plans... that may or may not come to fruition).
I'm like you and others on this board: I don't see how Wake Forest or NCSU adds value to either the B10 or the SEC by themselves... but it is plausible to suggest that Tobacco Road in it's entirety may -"may" is the key word- add value monetarily, academically and athletically that is enough to entice a conference to roll the dice and add them all as one group.
In my opinion, of the two P2 conferences the B10 would be more likely to roll the dice and take that chance.
What Notre Dame decides to do will determine much of what happens next, and when it happens, But as long as Florida State, Notre Dame, Washington, Oregon, and Kansas and North Carolina are on the board it's not over. Clemson, Miami, the Virginia schools, are all running mates potentially depending upon who is moving. Stanford, Colorado, and Cal may also fall into the sidekick role.
Those schools lead me to believe that a Big 10 and SEC of 20 is quite possible, and a Big 10 and SEC of 18 is highly likely. The Big 10's motives would be not having UCLA and USC on an Island and the SEC's motives would be a much needed second school and a rival for Kentucky hoops. The trick for the SEC is not to take too much from the ACC so that they survive and thrive well enough to be a natural barrier against Big 10 expansion to the East.
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Has ND on NBC run its course?
