So as conferences grow, especially if we are about to see 20 or 24 team conferences, that means a lot of content to be doled out.

Could we start to see tv contracts start to look something like this:

GOTW: National Broadcast

Noon and 3:30 slots would be based on markets. Games involving local teams would air in their local markets while the rest of the country gets the most attractive match up.

Out-of-market games available through streaming

That’s how it worked for most of our lives outside of the last decade: ABC might have the prime time game and a handful of matchups like Michigan-Ohio State nationalized, but the majority of games were regionalized (e.g. the Midwest markets got the Big Ten game, the Southeast markets got the ACC game, etc.). There were reverse mirror broadcasts on ESPN2 or other ESPN platforms where you could watch the non-local games in the last cycle of these regionalized contracts.

I don’t think the conferences, networks, and marketplace will deal with that framework again, though. The NFL can do it because it’s a zillion-pound gorilla and also has heavily negotiated and defined market boundaries for each team that everyone in the league agrees upon. (For instance, Orlando is defined as a secondary market for the Jaguars, so CBS and Fox *have* to show all Jaguars road games in that market even though the Dolphins or even just the random Patriots/Jets/Steelers game would likely get a higher rating there. The networks put up with it because that’s the cost of doing business with the NFL.) I don’t think it works for college football or any other sport besides the NFL going forward, either. If something is getting to an OTA network, then it needs to be a game that can be shown nationally or it won’t be shown at all. Networks want to be able to promote a single college football matchup in a particular time slot without confusion. On the flip side, conferences want the national exposure and don’t want to be regionalized. Plus, consumers don’t want to deal with an NFL Sunday Ticket-like package (or pay a material amount of money) for anything other than the NFL itself. Now, more streaming exclusive games is inevitable, but we’re not turning back the clocks on national broadcasts.

I guess we should then ask is the NFL TV model or college football model better? Let's assume the SEC 16/Big Ten 16 for sake of argument since it is a direct same number of teams as the NFL (I know I'll get complaints from all the ACC, Big 12, and Pac 12!)

In the NFL, you get on average three nightly national games and two regional slots, around 1pm and 4pm ET. Most fans get a double header so you get to see six games a week and are guaranteed to see your local team if you live in the home market of your team (unfortunately if you live somewhere like Wilkes Barre or even San Diego you don't get the Amazon Prime games unless you subscribe to Amazon Prime) so you only get five games a week and you if your "home" team is on Amazon Prime or even on ESPN or NFL Network you're screwed if you don't have cable. Now if you want to see another team outside of your home market and they aren't your local game or a national game, you have to subscribe to NFL Sunday Ticket.

In the SEC/Big Ten, the new Big Ten contracts starting in 2024 will have three games a week, one on FOX, CBS, and NBC, respectively. During conference play, that will be six teams featured a week. Most other Big Ten games will be available nationally but likely either on cable or streaming. SEC? We know they will have at least the 3:30pm game on ABC and probably the SNF game most if not all weeks. Many other games likely will be relegated to cable or possibly streaming, depending on the details of the new contract, but I'm sure if you pay enough money you'll get to see any SEC game any week (the same can be said about the NFL but NFL Sunday Ticket is insanely expensive compared to even Peacock for Big Ten coverage or ESPN+ for SEC games).

If you want to see your local team without paying a dime for cable or streaming, the NFL contract is better for you. You can be an Illini fan in Champaign or Chicago and you won't see every Illinois game without cable and/or streaming. Heck, even Ohio State and Michigan fans will likely need BTN for at least a couple of games and they might have a Peacock commitment as well.

If you just want to see top games, the college contracts are better assuming the networks pick the "best" games. My assumption is FOX, CBS, and NBC will load up on the Big Three and likely USC, the SEC has more variety. If you prefer more competitive games between mid level teams as opposed to OSU blowing out Illinois, you may be out of luck.

If you want to see "your" team, the college contracts are better. I can be an Illinois alum living in Philly and get all the Illinois games with a cable subscription with BTN and a Peacock subscription. If I was a Bears fan though I'd have to get Sunday Ticket to watch most of their games.

Could colleges go to an "NFL" style format? As long as students are part of the equation, they can't have national TV windows on three different nights (right now the SEC doesn't to my knowledge play Friday nights and very few Big Ten games are played and the big teams are usually not featured). Assuming all SEC/Big Ten teams just want to play Saturdays, then you can either have one national window and two regional windows or two national windows and one regional windows. If you have two regional windows, how about Illinois and Northwestern in the Chicago market? I'd say they should get Illinois games but no matter who you choose someone's getting screwed. If you have two regional windows, then only one national game per conference then and the #2 game could wind up getting "blacked out" in large markets (you'd probably have to then split up Illinois's and Northwestern's games and Chicago would only get U of I's and NW's game along with the national game). Now if you're an Illinois fan and you don't care about Penn State/Maryland or Iowa/Wisconsin, this could be better.

You illustrate a good point. Each week, 6/16ths of the Big 10 are going to get national exposure on network television. It’s cable or streaming for everyone. Under the collegiate broadcast model, things are great for the teams that dominate the television broadcast spots but it’s a tough living for the bottom half to third who struggle to get network appearances even in their own markets. It’s awfully hard for say Rutgers or Purdue to attain/maintain a good following if it takes effort and money to follow your team.

That’s where I think there’s an advantage to the NFL approach, where your small market, less attractive clubs at least have a footprint carved out that can watch probably 80% of their teams games just by flipping on the tube. For you states where states that have 2 schools, you just put the two in different time slots.

OK let's for grins and giggles consider Oct. 21, 2023 and we'll assume

Big Ten has regional time slots on FOX at noon and 3:30pm and a national time slot at 7:30pm on NBC.
SEC has regional time slots on ESPN at noon (for now we'll just treat ESPN like an OTA network while using the existing contracts) and 7pm and a national time slot at 3:30pm on CBS.

Noon:
Michigan at Michigan State
Wisconsin at Illinois
Rutgers at Indiana

Mississippi State at Arkansas
Army West Point at LSU

3:30pm:
Tennessee at Alabama

Minnesota at Iowa
Northwestern at Nebraska

7:30pm
Penn State at Ohio State

Ole Miss at Auburn
South Carolina at Missouri

This will give you an idea as to who will get to watch what game.

The interesting thing is in the primary area of interest (Midwest for Big Ten, South for SEC) they will get the regional game in each slot and for most of the rest of the country they will for all practical purposes get the "national" game anyway. Now in this week fans in Illinois and Wisconsin will miss out on UM/MSU which is pretty significant IMO. States with two schools in a given conference will likely get in state teams and the #1 conference game only outside of bye weeks and weeks one of their teams is playing the #1 conference game. This also prevents teams from watching neighboring teams as well. Fans in Chicago will likely have priority for Illinois and Northwestern but Purdue's pretty close to Illinois as is Wisconsin and this prevents Chicago from seeing most of their games without some alternative similar to NFL Sunday Ticket.

NFL? The NFC and AFC have 16 markets spread across the country as opposed to a tight geographic area. Imagine if Philadelphia, Washington, both New York teams, Pittsburgh, and New England were all in the same conference and you had to fit all of their games into two slots on the same network. That's the issue you have with the SEC or Big Ten. By contrast, imagine if you took the top 32 and put UCLA in one conference and USC in the other, Texas in one conference and Texas A&M in the other, etc. Then nearby schools aren't fighting over the same two time slots creating time conflicts.

(04-28-2023 10:04 AM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  So as conferences grow, especially if we are about to see 20 or 24 team conferences, that means a lot of content to be doled out.

Could we start to see tv contracts start to look something like this:

GOTW: National Broadcast

Noon and 3:30 slots would be based on markets. Games involving local teams would air in their local markets while the rest of the country gets the most attractive match up.

Out-of-market games available through streaming

I think the scholarship contracts may soon start looking like NFL players contracts. Straight up "pay for play" is not far off folks....we are practically already there.