As part of research for the Gonzaga & Big 12 video work was done to estimate the Big East deal.

Points out the signing bonus in 2013 and then the annual escalator and makes an estimate on what their payout might be in a new deal even if the value is level but just continuing the old percentage inflation increases.

https://twitter.com/Baylor_S11/status/16...03265?s=20

Not able to watch the video as of now, but if I'm understanding this correctly from the overall Twitter thread, a 20% basketball/non-football share of the new Big 12 TV deal would come out to around $600,000 more per year than the Big East assuming an inflation-adjusted payout.

So, assuming that the Big East gets nothing more than an inflationary increase in its new contract (and that's probably the worst case scenario), I definitely don't think that would be enough to get a Big East team to move to the Big 12 considering that the BE schools control their own league for institutional fit and stability purposes. This tracks with what I've seen before: the Big East actually does make P5-level money for basketball if you use the 80/20 football/basketball value metric for P5 contracts.

Gonzaga ought to take a Big 12 offer in a heartbeat, though.

EDIT: To clarify, UConn would take a Big 12 invite, so it wasn't correct for me to state that no Big East team would leave. However, the driver there would be for P5 football purposes.

(04-10-2023 04:42 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  Not able to watch the video as of now, but if I'm understanding this correctly from the overall Twitter thread, a 20% basketball/non-football share of the new Big 12 TV deal would come out to around $600,000 more per year than the Big East assuming an inflation-adjusted payout.

So, assuming that the Big East gets nothing more than an inflationary increase in its new contract (and that's probably the worst case scenario), I definitely don't think that would be enough to get a Big East team to move to the Big 12 considering that the BE schools control their own league for institutional fit and stability purposes. This tracks with what I've seen before: the Big East actually does make P5-level money for basketball if you use the 80/20 football/basketball value metric for P5 contracts.

Gonzaga ought to take a Big 12 offer in a heartbeat, though.

That's exactly the conclusions raised in the video. They specifically pour cold water on the Big East raid idea and provide lots of financials why the Big 12 move makes sense for Gonzaga.

This thread was simply pointing out the financials since many Big East fans are on this board and a new contract is coming up soon. Using the same inflating % a virtually equivalent deal would average in the mid 5M range compared to the years included in the new Big 12 deal.

I like the Big XII

Like the Big XII's schools (minus, of course, the two leaving) and like the four on their way as well

As a longtime fan of Big East basketball, I detest the idea of any school without Power Conference aspirations in football parking their athletic programs in a league where they would be permanent second-class citizens

To quote Charles Barkley: Absolutely turrible

(04-10-2023 04:46 PM)1845 Bear Wrote:  They specifically pour cold water on the Big East raid idea and provide lots of financials why the Big 12 move makes sense for Gonzaga.

(04-10-2023 04:42 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  Not able to watch the video as of now, but if I'm understanding this correctly from the overall Twitter thread, a 20% basketball/non-football share of the new Big 12 TV deal would come out to around $600,000 more per year than the Big East assuming an inflation-adjusted payout.

So, assuming that the Big East gets nothing more than an inflationary increase in its new contract (and that's probably the worst case scenario), I definitely don't think that would be enough to get a Big East team to move to the Big 12 considering that the BE schools control their own league for institutional fit and stability purposes. This tracks with what I've seen before: the Big East actually does make P5-level money for basketball if you use the 80/20 football/basketball value metric for P5 contracts.

Gonzaga ought to take a Big 12 offer in a heartbeat, though.

EDIT: To clarify, UConn would take a Big 12 invite, so it wasn't correct for me to state that no Big East team would leave. However, the driver there would be for P5 football purposes.

I'm not sure those numbers would be accurate when the Big12 negotiates basketball separately next time. Besides, the Big12 playing in the northeastern states would solve it lack of population within its footprint program. Likewise, Big East basketball schools would get get better national ratings playing Big12 teams. Maybe im wrong, but it's hard for me to imagine synergy and value enhancement not being created in such a scenario.

Sorry, double post.

(04-10-2023 04:42 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  Not able to watch the video as of now, but if I'm understanding this correctly from the overall Twitter thread, a 20% basketball/non-football share of the new Big 12 TV deal would come out to around $600,000 more per year than the Big East assuming an inflation-adjusted payout.

So, assuming that the Big East gets nothing more than an inflationary increase in its new contract (and that's probably the worst case scenario), I definitely don't think that would be enough to get a Big East team to move to the Big 12 considering that the BE schools control their own league for institutional fit and stability purposes. This tracks with what I've seen before: the Big East actually does make P5-level money for basketball if you use the 80/20 football/basketball value metric for P5 contracts.

Gonzaga ought to take a Big 12 offer in a heartbeat, though.

EDIT: To clarify, UConn would take a Big 12 invite, so it wasn't correct for me to state that no Big East team would leave. However, the driver there would be for P5 football purposes.

And, from the Big 12 perspective, why would they want to take Big East bball schools? The Big East was the first conference to collapse, precisely because of the conflicts between the football and non-football schools.

This is a goofy move that wouldn't make sense from the perspective of either the Big 12 or the Big East schools. I don't think this rumor about the Big 12 raiding the Big East exists outside of CSNBBS.

(04-10-2023 07:57 PM)Poster Wrote:  And, from the Big 12 perspective, why would they want to take Big East bball schools? The Big East was the first conference to collapse, precisely because of the conflicts between the football and non-football schools.

The same could be said for the Southwest Conference: "the conflicts between the football and the not-as-much football schools."

(04-10-2023 05:06 PM)Lurker Above Wrote:  

(04-10-2023 04:42 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  Not able to watch the video as of now, but if I'm understanding this correctly from the overall Twitter thread, a 20% basketball/non-football share of the new Big 12 TV deal would come out to around $600,000 more per year than the Big East assuming an inflation-adjusted payout.

So, assuming that the Big East gets nothing more than an inflationary increase in its new contract (and that's probably the worst case scenario), I definitely don't think that would be enough to get a Big East team to move to the Big 12 considering that the BE schools control their own league for institutional fit and stability purposes. This tracks with what I've seen before: the Big East actually does make P5-level money for basketball if you use the 80/20 football/basketball value metric for P5 contracts.

Gonzaga ought to take a Big 12 offer in a heartbeat, though.

EDIT: To clarify, UConn would take a Big 12 invite, so it wasn't correct for me to state that no Big East team would leave. However, the driver there would be for P5 football purposes.

I'm not sure those numbers would be accurate when the Big12 negotiates basketball separately next time. Besides, the Big12 playing in the northeastern states would solve it lack of population within its footprint program. Likewise, Big East basketball schools would get get better national ratings playing Big12 teams. Maybe im wrong, but it's hard for me to imagine synergy and value enhancement not being created in such a scenario.

The thing is that I’m not sure why so many fans think that what Yormark is proposing for the Big 12 to negotiate the basketball rights separately is unique or ground breaking or will suddenly unlock a lot of new value that isn’t already priced in (outside that he just talks publicly a lot). The Big Ten has *already* done this for decades with its separate basketball contract with CBS. Note that the Big Ten (not the ACC or Big 12) is consistently the most-watched basketball conference in addition to its football power. The numbers still bear out about the same as the all-in TV contracts: basketball is worth about 20% of the conference value and football is the rest.

The Big East is also a pure basketball rights contract and that’s similarly showing it’s about 20% of the value of an all-in P5 contract.

Maybe the Big 12 could get a little bit more compared to now by splitting out its basketball rights, but it’s not going to be a sudden windfall. At the same time, a simple inflationary increase for the Big East is going to be the worst case scenario for them and that’s still well within range of 20% of the current Big 12 rights. The Big East will likely get more than that amount on its own.

Finally, the Big East schools went through all of this crap before a decade ago with football-driven realignment. This notion that schools like Villanova and Marquette are going to give up control for a few more dollars (if that gap even actually really exists once the Big East gets a new TV deal) doesn’t make sense at all outside of the continuous overrating of the Big 12’s realignment leverage.

To be sure, it’s not that I don’t think the Big 12 has ANY leverage (as they do have some “juice” as referred to in Succession last week), but rather too many posters are wildly going overboard about the amount of such leverage.

(04-11-2023 09:33 AM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  

(04-10-2023 05:06 PM)Lurker Above Wrote:  

(04-10-2023 04:42 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  Not able to watch the video as of now, but if I'm understanding this correctly from the overall Twitter thread, a 20% basketball/non-football share of the new Big 12 TV deal would come out to around $600,000 more per year than the Big East assuming an inflation-adjusted payout.

So, assuming that the Big East gets nothing more than an inflationary increase in its new contract (and that's probably the worst case scenario), I definitely don't think that would be enough to get a Big East team to move to the Big 12 considering that the BE schools control their own league for institutional fit and stability purposes. This tracks with what I've seen before: the Big East actually does make P5-level money for basketball if you use the 80/20 football/basketball value metric for P5 contracts.

Gonzaga ought to take a Big 12 offer in a heartbeat, though.

EDIT: To clarify, UConn would take a Big 12 invite, so it wasn't correct for me to state that no Big East team would leave. However, the driver there would be for P5 football purposes.

I'm not sure those numbers would be accurate when the Big12 negotiates basketball separately next time. Besides, the Big12 playing in the northeastern states would solve it lack of population within its footprint program. Likewise, Big East basketball schools would get get better national ratings playing Big12 teams. Maybe im wrong, but it's hard for me to imagine synergy and value enhancement not being created in such a scenario.

The thing is that I’m not sure why so many fans think that what Yormark is proposing for the Big 12 to negotiate the basketball rights separately is unique or ground breaking or will suddenly unlock a lot of new value that isn’t already priced in (outside that he just talks publicly a lot).

Because right now, as far as a lot of Big 12 fans and/ or realignment junkies are concerned, Yormark is a golden god who poops TV money.

(04-11-2023 09:50 AM)johnbragg Wrote:  

(04-11-2023 09:33 AM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  

(04-10-2023 05:06 PM)Lurker Above Wrote:  

(04-10-2023 04:42 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  Not able to watch the video as of now, but if I'm understanding this correctly from the overall Twitter thread, a 20% basketball/non-football share of the new Big 12 TV deal would come out to around $600,000 more per year than the Big East assuming an inflation-adjusted payout.

So, assuming that the Big East gets nothing more than an inflationary increase in its new contract (and that's probably the worst case scenario), I definitely don't think that would be enough to get a Big East team to move to the Big 12 considering that the BE schools control their own league for institutional fit and stability purposes. This tracks with what I've seen before: the Big East actually does make P5-level money for basketball if you use the 80/20 football/basketball value metric for P5 contracts.

Gonzaga ought to take a Big 12 offer in a heartbeat, though.

EDIT: To clarify, UConn would take a Big 12 invite, so it wasn't correct for me to state that no Big East team would leave. However, the driver there would be for P5 football purposes.

I'm not sure those numbers would be accurate when the Big12 negotiates basketball separately next time. Besides, the Big12 playing in the northeastern states would solve it lack of population within its footprint program. Likewise, Big East basketball schools would get get better national ratings playing Big12 teams. Maybe im wrong, but it's hard for me to imagine synergy and value enhancement not being created in such a scenario.

The thing is that I’m not sure why so many fans think that what Yormark is proposing for the Big 12 to negotiate the basketball rights separately is unique or ground breaking or will suddenly unlock a lot of new value that isn’t already priced in (outside that he just talks publicly a lot).

Because right now, as far as a lot of Big 12 fans and/ or realignment junkies are concerned, Yormark is a golden god who poops TV money.

And look - Yormark made the right decision by just re-signing with ESPN and Fox with an inflationary increase instead of going to the open market. There was a question of whether that was leaving money on the table, but that turned out to be a smart move with Wall Street subsequently hammering media company spending a few months later. He also has some good ideas - I think the Big 12 pro day makes sense and it’s fine to separate basketball rights from football rights (albeit I just don’t think it’s going to be a massive windfall).

The irony is that so many people see Yormark as aggressive (likely because he seems to love talking to the press), yet the smartest act that he’s had as commissioner was to make a *conservative* move in taking the bird in hand with the Big 12 TV rights extension.

(04-11-2023 09:57 AM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  

(04-11-2023 09:50 AM)johnbragg Wrote:  

(04-11-2023 09:33 AM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  

(04-10-2023 05:06 PM)Lurker Above Wrote:  

(04-10-2023 04:42 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  Not able to watch the video as of now, but if I'm understanding this correctly from the overall Twitter thread, a 20% basketball/non-football share of the new Big 12 TV deal would come out to around $600,000 more per year than the Big East assuming an inflation-adjusted payout.

So, assuming that the Big East gets nothing more than an inflationary increase in its new contract (and that's probably the worst case scenario), I definitely don't think that would be enough to get a Big East team to move to the Big 12 considering that the BE schools control their own league for institutional fit and stability purposes. This tracks with what I've seen before: the Big East actually does make P5-level money for basketball if you use the 80/20 football/basketball value metric for P5 contracts.

Gonzaga ought to take a Big 12 offer in a heartbeat, though.

EDIT: To clarify, UConn would take a Big 12 invite, so it wasn't correct for me to state that no Big East team would leave. However, the driver there would be for P5 football purposes.

I'm not sure those numbers would be accurate when the Big12 negotiates basketball separately next time. Besides, the Big12 playing in the northeastern states would solve it lack of population within its footprint program. Likewise, Big East basketball schools would get get better national ratings playing Big12 teams. Maybe im wrong, but it's hard for me to imagine synergy and value enhancement not being created in such a scenario.

The thing is that I’m not sure why so many fans think that what Yormark is proposing for the Big 12 to negotiate the basketball rights separately is unique or ground breaking or will suddenly unlock a lot of new value that isn’t already priced in (outside that he just talks publicly a lot).

Because right now, as far as a lot of Big 12 fans and/ or realignment junkies are concerned, Yormark is a golden god who poops TV money.

And look - Yormark made the right decision by just re-signing with ESPN and Fox with an inflationary increase instead of going to the open market. There was a question of whether that was leaving money on the table, but that turned out to be a smart move with Wall Street subsequently hammering media company spending a few months later. He also has some good ideas - I think the Big 12 pro day makes sense and it’s fine to separate basketball rights from football rights (albeit I just don’t think it’s going to be a massive windfall).

The irony is that so many people see Yormark as aggressive (likely because he seems to love talking to the press), yet the smartest act that he’s had as commissioner was to make a *conservative* move in taking the bird in hand with the Big 12 TV rights extension.

He's "aggressive" in that he wants to get a deal done, even at the expense of leaving possible money on the table. He'll aggressively secure that bird-in-the-hand, rather than tentatively chase possible birds-in-the-bush.

Which means he got a TV contract. And he got $80M for the Little 8 from Texas and Oklahoma, at the expense of giving up the rest of the list-price exit fee.

(04-11-2023 09:33 AM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  

(04-10-2023 05:06 PM)Lurker Above Wrote:  

(04-10-2023 04:42 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  Not able to watch the video as of now, but if I'm understanding this correctly from the overall Twitter thread, a 20% basketball/non-football share of the new Big 12 TV deal would come out to around $600,000 more per year than the Big East assuming an inflation-adjusted payout.

So, assuming that the Big East gets nothing more than an inflationary increase in its new contract (and that's probably the worst case scenario), I definitely don't think that would be enough to get a Big East team to move to the Big 12 considering that the BE schools control their own league for institutional fit and stability purposes. This tracks with what I've seen before: the Big East actually does make P5-level money for basketball if you use the 80/20 football/basketball value metric for P5 contracts.

Gonzaga ought to take a Big 12 offer in a heartbeat, though.

EDIT: To clarify, UConn would take a Big 12 invite, so it wasn't correct for me to state that no Big East team would leave. However, the driver there would be for P5 football purposes.

I'm not sure those numbers would be accurate when the Big12 negotiates basketball separately next time. Besides, the Big12 playing in the northeastern states would solve it lack of population within its footprint program. Likewise, Big East basketball schools would get get better national ratings playing Big12 teams. Maybe im wrong, but it's hard for me to imagine synergy and value enhancement not being created in such a scenario.

The thing is that I’m not sure why so many fans think that what Yormark is proposing for the Big 12 to negotiate the basketball rights separately is unique or ground breaking or will suddenly unlock a lot of new value that isn’t already priced in (outside that he just talks publicly a lot). The Big Ten has *already* done this for decades with its separate basketball contract with CBS. Note that the Big Ten (not the ACC or Big 12) is consistently the most-watched basketball conference in addition to its football power. The numbers still bear out about the same as the all-in TV contracts: basketball is worth about 20% of the conference value and football is the rest.

The Big East is also a pure basketball rights contract and that’s similarly showing it’s about 20% of the value of an all-in P5 contract.

Maybe the Big 12 could get a little bit more compared to now by splitting out its basketball rights, but it’s not going to be a sudden windfall. At the same time, a simple inflationary increase for the Big East is going to be the worst case scenario for them and that’s still well within range of 20% of the current Big 12 rights. The Big East will likely get more than that amount on its own.

Finally, the Big East schools went through all of this crap before a decade ago with football-driven realignment. This notion that schools like Villanova and Marquette are going to give up control for a few more dollars (if that gap even actually really exists once the Big East gets a new TV deal) doesn’t make sense at all outside of the continuous overrating of the Big 12’s realignment leverage.

To be sure, it’s not that I don’t think the Big 12 has ANY leverage (as they do have some “juice” as referred to in Succession last week), but rather too many posters are wildly going overboard about the amount of such leverage.

The Big East will be in range of the pro-rata Big 12 tv payout. How much more than just inflation they get is debatable. ESPN has a ton of content for hoops and now FOX has the B1G and Big 12 driving down how much competition there is for the rights. Could limit the upside.

(04-11-2023 10:03 AM)johnbragg Wrote:  

(04-11-2023 09:57 AM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  

(04-11-2023 09:50 AM)johnbragg Wrote:  

(04-11-2023 09:33 AM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  

(04-10-2023 05:06 PM)Lurker Above Wrote:  I'm not sure those numbers would be accurate when the Big12 negotiates basketball separately next time. Besides, the Big12 playing in the northeastern states would solve it lack of population within its footprint program. Likewise, Big East basketball schools would get get better national ratings playing Big12 teams. Maybe im wrong, but it's hard for me to imagine synergy and value enhancement not being created in such a scenario.

The thing is that I’m not sure why so many fans think that what Yormark is proposing for the Big 12 to negotiate the basketball rights separately is unique or ground breaking or will suddenly unlock a lot of new value that isn’t already priced in (outside that he just talks publicly a lot).

Because right now, as far as a lot of Big 12 fans and/ or realignment junkies are concerned, Yormark is a golden god who poops TV money.

And look - Yormark made the right decision by just re-signing with ESPN and Fox with an inflationary increase instead of going to the open market. There was a question of whether that was leaving money on the table, but that turned out to be a smart move with Wall Street subsequently hammering media company spending a few months later. He also has some good ideas - I think the Big 12 pro day makes sense and it’s fine to separate basketball rights from football rights (albeit I just don’t think it’s going to be a massive windfall).

The irony is that so many people see Yormark as aggressive (likely because he seems to love talking to the press), yet the smartest act that he’s had as commissioner was to make a *conservative* move in taking the bird in hand with the Big 12 TV rights extension.

He's "aggressive" in that he wants to get a deal done, even at the expense of leaving possible money on the table. He'll aggressively secure that bird-in-the-hand, rather than tentatively chase possible birds-in-the-bush.

Which means he got a TV contract. And he got $80M for the Little 8 from Texas and Oklahoma, at the expense of giving up the rest of the list-price exit fee.

He aggressively grabbed what was available to him while saying he wanted more.

Brought some needed stability to the league and lets him use his mouth as much as he wants now about what his other aims are. If he gets nothing else, he still has the first bit (stability) to hang on as a success.

(04-10-2023 04:59 PM)PeteTheChop Wrote:  I like the Big XII

Like the Big XII's schools (minus, of course, the two leaving) and like the four on their way as well

As a longtime fan of Big East basketball, I detest the idea of any school without Power Conference aspirations in football parking their athletic programs in a league where they would be permanent second-class citizens

To quote Charles Barkley: Absolutely turrible

Gonzaga wouldn't be a 2nd class citizen in the big 12, they'd just be non-football. Same for Villanova. If UConn joined without football they'd still have more National Titles than KU. If Yormark gets his way, basketball will eventually be a whole lot more than 20% of the big 12's media deal.

In the SEC or B1G, you'd be 2nd class without football. But in the big 12 or ACC? Perhaps not.