There is nothing certain where realignment is concerned except that for this generation it has seemed endless. And while there will be likely others I think this cycle of it which began in earnest in 1990 is about at an end. We have a few moves left to be made and reorganization will finalize for at least a while.

As things stand now there is some kind of understanding that the Big 10 likely has unfinished business to the West. With Oregon getting a new chancellor from Wisconsin the ties between the Big 10 and PAC are simply being amplified. In the end I think that those old ties will be too great, and mean way too much between two academic associations which share a similar though not totally comparable vision of the mission of their universities and essentially in athletics as well.

I'm going to assume that Washington and Stanford will be the next additions for the Big 10 and that shortly thereafter Oregon and California will be present as well.

POTENTIAL #1:

A six team PAC 12 division for the Big 10, though it could be five, seems likely to me.

Interestingly the SEC could complete its own 6 team truly West division as well if it added AAU members and state flagships Kansas and Colorado.

Even if the Big 10 only takes two more to the West to move to 18 the SEC should consider the integrity and synergy of its own 6 school western Big 12 division.

If the Big 10 does make the move to 20 by adding 4 to the West then the logical move for the SEC would be to pick up the schools which complete its Deep South identity. Here's where Clemson and Florida State make sense.

Personally, I think either 18 or 20 are very natural stopping points for both of the Super 2 conferences.

What is spared by simply moving to 18? It leaves us a West Coast conference even if it is called Big 12 and an East Coast Conference called the ACC.

The basketball rich Big 12 won't miss Kansas if they land Arizona and add Gonzaga. Colorado won't be missed either. But the Buffs may miss some California schools, but they would at least have recruiting trails back in a manageable way.

And while there are those who rightly point out right now that no PAC school will join the Big 12, I'm not so sure that remains the case should Washington, Oregon, Stanford, and possibly California join the Big 10. At that point it's any port in a storm, and the Big 12 harbor will look safe enough.

The ACC could remain intact with Notre Dame continuing as an independent and with the addition of West Virginia and Cincinnati which would expand markets and increase competitiveness while once again connecting their East Coast schools. But add Connecticut and Tulane and it fits together much more nicely.

With no schools lost in Florida they would have no need to add any. South Florida could head to the Big 12 with the departure of Kansas.

ESPN could use the additions to offer some relief to Clemson, Miami, and Florida State, and perhaps North Carolina by at least finding ways to bump those 4 programs with the 2 additions opening the contract.

A 18 plus 1 would exist in the ACC. ESPN would be picking up a new time zone with Colorado and a basketball blueblood to play rival to Kentucky. And those 2 additions solve some of the irregular growth issues of the 2012 realignment in the SEC.

SEC

Colorado, Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas A&M

Alabama, Arkansas, Auburn, Louisiana State, Mississippi, Mississippi State

Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, South Carolina, Tennessee, Vanderbilt.

The Big 12 and PAC remnant could form an 18-school conference.

Big 12

Arizona, Arizona State, Oregon, Oregon State, San Diego State, Washington State

Brigham Young, Colorado State, Iowa State, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Utah

Baylor, Central Florida, Houston, South Florida, Texas Christian, Texas Tech


ACC:

Boston College, Cincinnati, Connecticut, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, West Virginia

Duke, North Carolina, N.C. State, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest

Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Louisville, Miami, Tulane

*Notre Dame as all but football

B1G:

California Los Angeles, Iowa, Nebraska, Southern California, Stanford, Washington

Illinois, Michigan, Michigan State, Minnesota, Northwestern, Wisconsin

Indiana, Maryland, Ohio State, Penn State, Purdue, Rutgers



This is actually my preferred model with this modification:

The ACC would also add for all but football the old core Big East Basketball schools: Georgetown, Providence, Seton Hall, St. John's, Villanova and new member Xavier.

The Big 12 would add for all but football: Butler, Creighton, De Paul, Gonzaga, Marquette, Mt. St. Mary's

These additions would add to the overall revenue of the conference and pay some of the best of the rest basketball schools a higher amount than the conferences they are presently in.

The networks would have 36 schools they paid top dollar to land and 36 they paid at rates near what they pay those conferences now.

But somehow, I don't believe the Big 10 will stop at 18 with 4 West Coast teams because old associations will strongly indicate inclusion for Oregon and/or Cal, depending upon what Notre Dame does. And because 4 out West simply makes the whole system feel imbalanced and awkward. If the Irish join they'll end with 5 in the West. If Notre Dame remains aloof then 6 in the West screws up divisions even though it makes sense because it limits travel expense. Unlike the SEC 18 is awkward for the Big 10. But, 20 is not. So what do you do if the Irish aren't apart?

*****************************************************************

I don't think the ACC can be secured as long as Clemson, Miami, and FSU are staunchly insistent upon Big 10 / SEC level money for their aspirations in football.

So, POTENTIAL #2: Both the SEC and Big 10 move to 20

Notre Dame sees the handwriting on the wall that an upper tier of contained schools will only play each other and likely break down into 3, maybe 4 conferences. The Big 10 is the best proximity for ND's minor sports and the academic associations are right for them. With rumors flying that the SEC will move to 20 with two of the football first schools of the ACC, and that ESPN has other plans for the ACC, Notre Dame is stuck. They aren't joining the SEC. The PAC is going away. There's nobody left in the Big 12 they want to play. So, the Big 10 can't turn them down and needs a traveling companion for them. With 4 schools to the West (USC, UCLA, Washington, Stanford) they add Oregon and the Big 10 moves to 20.

California Los Angeles, Oregon, Southern Cal, Stanford, Washington

Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, Wisconsin

Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State

Maryland, Notre Dame, Penn State, Purdue, Rutgers


The ACC loses Clemson, Florida State, and partial Notre Dame. They move to four 4 team divisions for football and remains expanded as they are for all but football additions. The Big 12 loses Oregon and adds Fresno State. Remains at 18 with expanded all but football additions intact.

With the SEC now seeing the combined added value of Notre Dame with Oregon they match the move to 20, working out details with ESPN and ESPN in turn with the ACC they now add two schools which have sustainable value and best match the SEC profile, Florida State and Clemson.

The 20 team SEC:

Colorado, Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas

Alabama, Arkansas, Louisiana State, Mississippi, Texas A&M

Auburn, Florida State, Florida, Georgia, Mississippi State

Clemson, Kentucky, South Carolina, Tennessee, Vanderbilt

Now this configuration could prove unpopular compared to the balance and geographical sense of the 18. The value keeps pace with the Big 10 additions and keeps the SEC still out in front comfortably.

But the alignment they had at 18 was so solid. Many want to bring the balance they lack back to the alignment of 18 by considering the move to 24. If they add four of North Carolina, N.C. State, Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech and Miami they can build acceptable divisions, lock up rivalries, and lock down the Deep South identity they want to protect. And this leads to...

Potential #3

SEC:

ACC Division: Clemson, Florida State, Miami, North Carolina, N.C. State, Virginia Tech

SEC E. Div: Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, South Carolina, Tennessee, Vanderbilt

SEC W. Div: Alabama, Arkansas, Auburn, Louisiana State, Mississippi, Miss State

B12 Division: Colorado, Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas A&M


The Big 10 responds with their own which also makes geographical sense:

ACC/BE Division: Duke, Maryland, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, Rutgers, Virginia

B1G East: Indiana, Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State, Penn State, Purdue

B1G West: Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, Wisconsin

PAC Division: California, California Los Angeles, Oregon, Southern Cal, Stanford, Washington

The NEW B12:

PAC: Arizona, Arizona State, Brigham Young, Oregon State, Utah, Washington State

Plains: Iowa State, Colorado State, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Texas Christian, Texas Tech

Central: Baylor, Central Florida, Georgia Tech, Houston, South Florida, Tulane

East: Boston College, Cincinnati, Louisville, Syracuse, Wake Forest, West Virginia


I don't know if we get there, or stop at 20, or stop at 18 members, or if the SEC and Big 10 got to 20 each while the ACC stays at 16 and the New Big 12 stays at 16 and both of those conferences add solid hoops programs who don't carry football. But somewhere in here is something which will likely be close to what we end up with.

It's quiet during the tournament, but when March Madness is done, things on the realignment front will only be a couple of weeks away from Warren starting his new job.

Until then the debate will rage on about whether PAC schools end up in the Big 12, and whether the PAC has a new TV contract or not. The schools want to keep open options and the networks won't pay for a conference which may lose top product so that's why the offers are low. And nobody is signing a GOR until they know. So once the Big 10 makes a decision about further PAC expansion the rest of this will be back in motion.

And basketball revenue? It will motivate, along with court rulings, the breakaway upper tier.

Interesting.

Any, or all, of the above, are certainly possibilities.

For probabilities, hmm... (in my opinion at least : )

Scenario #1 -18 each for the P2

I don't think there's any scenario where FSU stays in the ACC.

I think more than any other move, that's impending. They wouldn't be rattling cages so openly if there wasn't some move about to happen.

I know there are those who are going to want to shout about the GoR, but I remember those same kinds of arguments about Maryland - that they'd never go to court, they'd never win, etc.

And because espn has the media deal for both the ACC and the SEC, and (as far as we can extrapolate) the GoRs for both conferences are dependent upon the espn deal for the conference, I think FSU going to the SEC is more likely now.

If they truly have to break away - that is, if they have to break out, rather than be helped out, then they might go straight to the Big10 instead.

But I don't think that espn (or any other powers-that-be) would be so foolish as to let that happen. Though, we've seen foolish nonsense before, to be sure lol.

So that said, would FSU getting out be enough to get another school out? NC, Miami, Clemson, GT, VT, or whomever?

Probably.

As much as you and I see the value in Kansas, I think that the money likely involved in such a move means that FSU is only leaving with a football power, full stop. A new market would be nice, but not mandatory.

Football? Then it's Clemson.
New Market? Then it's NC for the state of North Carolina - unless they want to keep that cluster together in the ACC, then it's VT for the state of Virginia.

I think if they're stopping at 18, it'll be Clemson. They need the ACC to stabilize, and for that, Clemson needs to move. NC has shown several times that they're willing to stay with their rivals peaceably. In the past, Clemson has apparently only done so out of duress/deal-making. And they are making some real noise too, at the moment.

For the Big10, if it's 18, then they have a problem.

The schools are on the record as to not wanting more than one trip to the west coast per season. They also really seem like they want more info before committing to more schools from the west coast.

And if they are only taking 2, then that means the PAC needs to still exist and be viable - even if the media deal situation causes the Arizona schools to leave - which seems more likely daily (they are getting to be louder than FSU).

If the ACC GoR was not an issue - and the SEC took FSU and Clemson - NC would be nice, but I think the logistics of extricating them takes us past just 18, if it's even possible. So, then I think the Big10 takes Virginia and Colorado.

Surprised? Me too lol.

But just like espn is likely involved in the FSU move, Fox would likely be involved in a Big10 move.

And Fox wants markets. And good as the markets that Kansas can pull (not just KC, to be sure), Colorado just would seem to bring more.

It also adds a contiguous school to the group that is also closer to USC/UCLA. Which helps out everyone's schedules as far as travel.

And it gives Nebraska a past rival - which I cannot under-value in these decisions. Nebraska is a nation-wide brand, with a huge fan base. It is in Fox's (and the Big10's) financial interests for Nebraska to be doing better in football. It just simply is the biggest developing problem in the Big10, in my opinion.

Colorado would jump at this of course. They retain their California connection, and Nebraska as a past rival helps them too. And of course, there's the money too...

If Virginia isn't an option due to however the FSU move is implemented, then it's Colorado plus either Kansas or a west coast school.

If it's a west coast school, it's likely Stanford or Oregon, for a new market region.

But I'm leaning towards Kansas - for all the reasons above. If they take a west coast school and Colorado, and the B12 takes the 2 AZ schools, that's a real blow to the PAC. They could still survive it, but I think staying "friends" goes out the window.

Plus, it really is in the Big10's interests to grab Kansas before the SEC does.

FSU plus Kansas to the SEC is also a real possibility.

And I'm not discounting that Oregon and Washington could happen, but I think that waits for 20, or even 22.

Summary for Scenario#1 (P2 to 18):

SEC - FSU plus a partner
a.) if football - Clemson
b.) if new market - NC or VT
c.) if only FSU leaves the ACC - Kansas

Most likely - FSU and Clemson.

Big10 - Colorado plus a partner
a.) if FSU situation blows up - FSU
b.) if some other ACC possible - VA or Miami
c.) If ACC not an option - Kansas
d.) If 1 more west coast is preferred - Stanford. But if "better" football is a criteria - Oregon.

Most likely - Colorado and Kansas

ACC - backfills with Cincinnati, WV, and UCF, to go to 16+ND, with a small raise from espn.
a.) if 2 ACC schools are taken, then also add 1 former BigEast school (UConn, Memphis, USF, Navy, Tulane, Temple, ECU, etc.)

B12 - loses 4
Most likely adds AZ, AZ State, SDSU, and 1 more MWC or AAC school, (or adding Colorado, if the Big10 does not).

PAC survives by going to 8 all sports schools+Hawaii for 9 football, and goes to 12 by adding 3 non-football AAU schools from BigWest. (Gonzaga is also possible, though unlikely.)

Scenario #2 - P2 each go to 20

All of the above is still in play. But in this case, more of the ACC gets moved.

This scenario really comes down to what happens with NC.

And there are a lot of options.

Do they stay in the ACC?
Do they join the SEC?
Do they join the Big10?
Do they demand Duke or NC State, or both? What about Virginia?

And if this many schools are at play in the ACC, can the Big10 muscle their way in (through court cases or even just Fox negotiations due to the likely dominoes out west at the same time for 20, which could mean that espn may want Fox's help)

I really can't say what's the most likely here. There are just too many uncertainties - especially legal ones - that we just don't know. This could be easier to forecast in 2030, but for it to happen now (over the next year-ish), we just can't know how much weight to give each of the possible scenarios.

So let's just say that all the options for 18 are in play, but add 2.

So for example, the SEC could go for football and markets.

I do think that if they have the ACC open, that the SEC goes for 4 from the ACC, and doesn't go for Kansas.

2 main reasons. First, reduce the Big10's east coast/south options. And really, if they can completely lock out the Big10 from even taking a single ACC school this go-round, that would be a win.

Second, most seem to think that the best 2 backfill options for the ACC are Cincinnati and West Virginia. And for that, espn is likely going to want Fox's help.

Taking Kansas too, could upend that. And could be seen as an unforced error.

That said, Kansas is definitely in the mix. Especially if the decision is for the NC cluster to stay in the ACC (with a raise).

In that situation, I think VT wins the lottery, because espn is still going to want at least one new market. FSU and Clemson (or GT or Miami) are not new states.

If the Big10 gets access to the ACC then FSU and Miami (and maybe GT) are definitely targets.

As are VA, NC, Duke.

NC State has an outside chance as being near-AAU, but I don't think the SEC takes Duke without NC, and I think the Big10 takes Duke before NC State, so I don't think NC State gets into the Big10, unless the "Delaney option" of taking all 4 (VA, NC, Duke, NC State) happens in order to get a "yes" from NC.

But unless FSU "blows up" the GoR (which - again - I don't think the powers-that-be will let it get that far) I don't think the Big10 gets anyone from the ACC in the next year-ish, unless as a "trade" with Fox happens.

I could see an outside chance a deal where the Big10 gets VA (and maybe Duke), as a trade for Cin, WV, and UCF from the B12. And to help dissuade Fox money/lawyers from helping FSU "blow up" the ACC.

So looking past the Big10 and the SEC, and the ACC.

If going to 20, I think Kansas gets taken by one of the P2.

And the ACC backfills just like scenario #1, but with more former BigEast schools, to get to 16+ND. If the NC cluster leaves, then they might go to 18+ND - basically re-forming the post-split BigEast/AAC.

What do I think most likely?

NC is a tough nut to crack, and it will all come down to circumstances that none of us can predict. But if espn et al can keep things under control, then I think NC (and its cluster) stays in the ACC with a raise.

In that case, SEC takes FSU (again, espn is orchestrating), Clemson, VT, and GT.

Miami could very well be possible for a third Florida school, but I think football (Clemson), a new state (VT), and locking down Georgia from Big10 (GT) is more likely.

As for out west. If taking 4 right away, and if ACC is still not an option...

Then the Big10 takes Kansas to keep espn focused east. It's not just about getting a market, but also controlling it. (Similar to why the SEC/espn would want to keep the Big10/Fox out of the SE Atlantic coast.) And there's also the Nebraska factor I noted above. Plus I cannot overstate the value that the Big10 places on Basketball. And Fox? Just look at how Fox went after basketball media rights. Letting Kansas go to espn/SEC would be a rather short-sighted move by both the Big10 and Fox.

And for the other three, I think it's Oregon (from what's been recently noted in the press), Stanford (academics!), and Colorado (per above). Washington could be swapped in for one of those (most likely for Stanford, if they want to stay with Cal/avoid travel), but I think those three are the most likely.

Summary for Scenario#2 - P2 to 20 (4 each)

SEC/espn locks the Big10 out of ACC options, and NC cluster stays in ACC with a raise.

SEC - FSU, Clemson, GT, VT

Big10 - Kansas, Colorado, Oregon, and either Stanford or Washington.

ACC - adds more of the former BigEast schools listed in Scenario#1.

Big12 and PAC - same as Scenario#1, but PAC would need more G5 football schools.

Scenario #3 - P2/3 goes to 24.

I don't think that this will happen before the 2030s. 22 "maybe" if the stars align. But really really doubtful.

But looking to the 2030s, just take scenario #2 above, and each adds 4 more.

The Big10 and SEC will each negotiate with/bid on, the NC cluster.

I think it comes down to academic fit vs. cultural fit.

And I think it could be strongly argued either way.

But since we're laying out what we guess... : )

My guess is that the NC cluster splits, with NC going to the SEC with NC State.

And the Big10 adds VA and Duke.

For the other two, I think the SEC grabs Miami and Texas Tech (or possibly TCU)

I thought about Louisville, but a.) Kentucky doesn't seem enthused by the idea, and b.) getting a third school in those two large states just seems smart. Plus it brings rivalries in-house - like the Florida Cup and the Chancellor's Spurs.

For their other 2, presuming the SEC choices noted, then if we restrict to P5 AAU, it's down to Washington (or Stanford, depending on Scenario 2's choice), and 1 of California, AZ, or Pittsburgh.

Funny thing, I think at 24, I think G5 AAU Buffalo might well have an outside shot also.

All things being equal, they could also go after an SEC school, or after a "nearly AAU" school.

And, I think by 2030, Missouri might well be looking to move, if an invite was possible - and I think it would be by 2030, if all these other moves are done.

To replace Missouri, I think the SEC takes the 4th Texas school (TCU or Texas Tech) - that gives them (roughly) "4 quadrants" of Texas.

If they don't want a 4th Texas school, then I think the best move is to restore the OK/OK State rivalry. It does have a markets issue, but I think it just is the next best choice.

Alternatively, Kansas State isn't a bad option at this stage. It allows them to have an "in" in the Missouri market just lost, and gives several of the benefits Kansas does, but better at football.

Louisville and USF, are also potential (though unlikely at this stage) options. More likely to be in rebuilt ACC.

Wait. What about Notre Dame, someone asks?

I think that even in this P3 situation, ND stays independent in football. It's value is just greater to everyone if it does.

If the ACC survives (and I think it would) then ND can stay there, though possibly with a modified deal.

If the Big10 can find a way to accept the deal, I think ND would join the Big10 with an ACC-style deal.

If not, then, I think the B12 (24) would take that deal. And if (surprisingly) they did not, the BigEast surely would.

ND could be school 21 or 25 in any such a situation. They always have a seat, regardless of how many other schools are in a conference.

Summary for Scenario#3 - 24 by 2030s

Same as Scenario#2 plus:

SEC - NC, NC State, Miami, and either Texas Tech or TCU.

If Missouri leaves, then adds either OK State, or the 4th Texas school.

Big10 - VA, Duke, Missouri (or NC), and Washington (or Stanford)

ACC - adds more of the former BigEast options noted above in Scenario#1

PAC - "could" survive with more G5, but...

B12 - likely mops up the rest of the PAC and some western G5. Likely adding Gonzaga, maybe Wichita, and possibly some fb-only schools.

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(Looks at the clock) Wow, this took awhile to write. lol

I dunno if any of the above with happen, there are so many factors that we simply don't know. Plus we really haven't figured in the real issue of schools needing to vote for these things and the subjectivity and circumstances of the moment.

So anything could happen.

Whatever does happen, I do hope they lean more towards restoring/maintaining long-time rivalries and seeing the value in those matchups, over merely counting beans and short-term grabs for the almighty dollar.

All I can do is hope : )

Thanks for posting that, this was a fun exercise : )

I decided not to copy the length again. Remember who is really behind this, ESPN. ESPN has kept Kansas's T3 in order to placate them within the Big 12, and has sought them in a failed deal in the past. I'm pretty sure Kansas would be of interest to ESPN much more so than the SEC. And that could go double for Colorado or not? It's just that in my move to 18 scenario the ACC wasn't involved except to add schools. That meant the SEC/ESPN's only options were to the West.

I wouldn't rule out FSU's partners to the SEC being Miami, North Carolina and N.C. State. Clemson is there if the SEC wants them, but they won't be a must protect property for ESPN because there is no perceived interest in them from the Big 10. With UNC off the board along with both Florida Schools, ESPN will bank that Georgia Tech isn't worth enough on their own to be the final stop South for the Big 10.

Duke and Virginia are another matter and not great losses for the SEC or ESPN.

ESPN has carefully crafted two conferences which they completely own the rights to in order to dominate the region they feel is the most profitable and self sustaining in the nation. They won't relinquish it willingly. And they have until 2036 to figure out what to do to preserve it. If there is something they want from the PAC 12 or Big 12 exclusively they will go for it. If they have enough of Kansas already through their 50% rights in the Big 12 and can acquire Arizona, Arizona State, Utah and Colorado that way they likely leave Kansas alone. If the SEC has 8 slots open for the ACC then ESPN might fund that. In that case they might place B.C., Louisville, Pitt, Syracuse, and Wake Forest in the Big 12, cut Notre Dame, Duke and Virginia loose, and place the remaining 8 in the SEC. Or they might simply move 2 to the SEC, the 2 they most want to keep 100% theirs, and build the ACC into the hoops conference I suggested. And the Big East properties would be easily split between the ACC and Big 12.

We'll see.

(03-19-2023 01:41 PM)JRsec Wrote:  I decided not to copy the length again. Remember who is really behind this, ESPN. ESPN has kept Kansas's T3 in order to placate them within the Big 12, and has sought them in a failed deal in the past. I'm pretty sure Kansas would be of interest to ESPN much more so than the SEC. And that could go double for Colorado or not? It's just that in my move to 18 scenario the ACC wasn't involved except to add schools. That meant the SEC/ESPN's only options were to the West.

I agree. It's not that I don't think espn might want Kansas, but when looking at everything, I think it's more important to them that they need to stop the Big10 from getting SE Atlantic coast ACC schools.

And I truly think FSU is getting out, which will change how things happen.

If the rest of the ACC does stay on lockdown, then an FSU-Kansas move by the SEC is a strategic power move that could lock the Big10 quite literally in a corner - the upper corner of the US.

For that reason (and the others I noted), the smart move by the Big10 is to forestall that move.

(03-19-2023 01:41 PM)JRsec Wrote:  I wouldn't rule out FSU's partners to the SEC being Miami, North Carolina and N.C. State. Clemson is there if the SEC wants them, but they won't be a must protect property for ESPN because there is no perceived interest in them from the Big 10. With UNC off the board along with both Florida Schools, ESPN will bank that Georgia Tech isn't worth enough on their own to be the final stop South for the Big 10.

Duke and Virginia are another matter and not great losses for the SEC or ESPN.

If we're talking about 20, I agree. As I said, it's a very fine line between what NC decides to do in a 20-school scenario.

I went with NC staying in the ACC.

But they could very well leave to the SEC. And if so, I agree - FSU, NC, NC state, and Miami, would be a strong move there.

Though I might lean towards GT instead of Miami to the SEC, for several reasons. a.) block Big10 from AAU GT, and b.) If the SEC takes GT and FSU the Big10 is less likely to take non-AAU Miami, so really it's a double-block, and c.) the SEC might not want 3 schools in Florida, if only at 20.

Meanwhile, if the Big10 gets VA and Duke, they could easily take GT. The states of NC and Georgia touch, and you've mentioned before the value of the Atlantic market.

(03-19-2023 01:41 PM)JRsec Wrote:  ESPN has carefully crafted two conferences which they completely own the rights to in order to dominate the region they feel is the most profitable and self sustaining in the nation. They won't relinquish it willingly.

I completely agree.

(03-19-2023 01:41 PM)JRsec Wrote:  And they have until 2036 to figure out what to do to preserve it. If there is something they want from the PAC 12 or Big 12 exclusively they will go for it. If they have enough of Kansas already through their 50% rights in the Big 12 and can acquire Arizona, Arizona State, Utah and Colorado that way they likely leave Kansas alone. If the SEC has 8 slots open for the ACC then ESPN might fund that. In that case they might place B.C., Louisville, Pitt, Syracuse, and Wake Forest in the Big 12, cut Notre Dame, Duke and Virginia loose, and place the remaining 8 in the SEC. Or they might simply move 2 to the SEC, the 2 they most want to keep 100% theirs, and build the ACC into the hoops conference I suggested. And the Big East properties would be easily split between the ACC and Big 12.

We'll see.

Any of those are possible.

It'll all likely come down to circumstances. Who acts first and what they do. The chessboard just seems to be constantly moving lol

(03-19-2023 02:53 PM)Skyhawk Wrote:  

(03-19-2023 01:41 PM)JRsec Wrote:  I decided not to copy the length again. Remember who is really behind this, ESPN. ESPN has kept Kansas's T3 in order to placate them within the Big 12, and has sought them in a failed deal in the past. I'm pretty sure Kansas would be of interest to ESPN much more so than the SEC. And that could go double for Colorado or not? It's just that in my move to 18 scenario the ACC wasn't involved except to add schools. That meant the SEC/ESPN's only options were to the West.

I agree. It's not that I don't think espn might want Kansas, but when looking at everything, I think it's more important to them that they need to stop the Big10 from getting SE Atlantic coast ACC schools.

And I truly think FSU is getting out, which will change how things happen.

If the rest of the ACC does stay on lockdown, then an FSU-Kansas move by the SEC is a strategic power move that could lock the Big10 quite literally in a corner - the upper corner of the US.

For that reason (and the others I noted), the smart move by the Big10 is to forestall that move.

(03-19-2023 01:41 PM)JRsec Wrote:  I wouldn't rule out FSU's partners to the SEC being Miami, North Carolina and N.C. State. Clemson is there if the SEC wants them, but they won't be a must protect property for ESPN because there is no perceived interest in them from the Big 10. With UNC off the board along with both Florida Schools, ESPN will bank that Georgia Tech isn't worth enough on their own to be the final stop South for the Big 10.

Duke and Virginia are another matter and not great losses for the SEC or ESPN.

If we're talking about 20, I agree. As I said, it's a very fine line between what NC decides to do in a 20-school scenario.

I went with NC staying in the ACC.

But they could very well leave to the SEC. And if so, I agree - FSU, NC, NC state, and Miami, would be a strong move there.

Though I might lean towards GT instead of Miami to the SEC, for several reasons. a.) block Big10 from AAU GT, and b.) If the SEC takes GT and FSU the Big10 is less likely to take non-AAU Miami, so really it's a double-block, and c.) the SEC might not want 3 schools in Florida, if only at 20.

Meanwhile, if the Big10 gets VA and Duke, they could easily take GT. The states of NC and Georgia touch, and you've mentioned before the value of the Atlantic market.

(03-19-2023 01:41 PM)JRsec Wrote:  ESPN has carefully crafted two conferences which they completely own the rights to in order to dominate the region they feel is the most profitable and self sustaining in the nation. They won't relinquish it willingly.

I completely agree.

(03-19-2023 01:41 PM)JRsec Wrote:  And they have until 2036 to figure out what to do to preserve it. If there is something they want from the PAC 12 or Big 12 exclusively they will go for it. If they have enough of Kansas already through their 50% rights in the Big 12 and can acquire Arizona, Arizona State, Utah and Colorado that way they likely leave Kansas alone. If the SEC has 8 slots open for the ACC then ESPN might fund that. In that case they might place B.C., Louisville, Pitt, Syracuse, and Wake Forest in the Big 12, cut Notre Dame, Duke and Virginia loose, and place the remaining 8 in the SEC. Or they might simply move 2 to the SEC, the 2 they most want to keep 100% theirs, and build the ACC into the hoops conference I suggested. And the Big East properties would be easily split between the ACC and Big 12.

We'll see.

Any of those are possible.

It'll all likely come down to circumstances. Who acts first and what they do. The chessboard just seems to be constantly moving lol

Florida State and Kansas is a power move. In part because FSU has a better present brand and value than USC and Kansas is the same with regard to UCLA. USC and UCLA however are the historic brands.

I do believe if ESPN intends to stabilize the ACC that moving just FSU and adding Kansas to the SEC should be a win-win for the network. Minus FSU the ACC could seek to add Cincinnati, Connecticut, and West Virginia and rebalance that conference. Or sub South Florida for one of the above and still do it.

(03-19-2023 03:22 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(03-19-2023 02:53 PM)Skyhawk Wrote:  

(03-19-2023 01:41 PM)JRsec Wrote:  I decided not to copy the length again. Remember who is really behind this, ESPN. ESPN has kept Kansas's T3 in order to placate them within the Big 12, and has sought them in a failed deal in the past. I'm pretty sure Kansas would be of interest to ESPN much more so than the SEC. And that could go double for Colorado or not? It's just that in my move to 18 scenario the ACC wasn't involved except to add schools. That meant the SEC/ESPN's only options were to the West.

I agree. It's not that I don't think espn might want Kansas, but when looking at everything, I think it's more important to them that they need to stop the Big10 from getting SE Atlantic coast ACC schools.

And I truly think FSU is getting out, which will change how things happen.

If the rest of the ACC does stay on lockdown, then an FSU-Kansas move by the SEC is a strategic power move that could lock the Big10 quite literally in a corner - the upper corner of the US.

For that reason (and the others I noted), the smart move by the Big10 is to forestall that move.

(03-19-2023 01:41 PM)JRsec Wrote:  I wouldn't rule out FSU's partners to the SEC being Miami, North Carolina and N.C. State. Clemson is there if the SEC wants them, but they won't be a must protect property for ESPN because there is no perceived interest in them from the Big 10. With UNC off the board along with both Florida Schools, ESPN will bank that Georgia Tech isn't worth enough on their own to be the final stop South for the Big 10.

Duke and Virginia are another matter and not great losses for the SEC or ESPN.

If we're talking about 20, I agree. As I said, it's a very fine line between what NC decides to do in a 20-school scenario.

I went with NC staying in the ACC.

But they could very well leave to the SEC. And if so, I agree - FSU, NC, NC state, and Miami, would be a strong move there.

Though I might lean towards GT instead of Miami to the SEC, for several reasons. a.) block Big10 from AAU GT, and b.) If the SEC takes GT and FSU the Big10 is less likely to take non-AAU Miami, so really it's a double-block, and c.) the SEC might not want 3 schools in Florida, if only at 20.

Meanwhile, if the Big10 gets VA and Duke, they could easily take GT. The states of NC and Georgia touch, and you've mentioned before the value of the Atlantic market.

(03-19-2023 01:41 PM)JRsec Wrote:  ESPN has carefully crafted two conferences which they completely own the rights to in order to dominate the region they feel is the most profitable and self sustaining in the nation. They won't relinquish it willingly.

I completely agree.

(03-19-2023 01:41 PM)JRsec Wrote:  And they have until 2036 to figure out what to do to preserve it. If there is something they want from the PAC 12 or Big 12 exclusively they will go for it. If they have enough of Kansas already through their 50% rights in the Big 12 and can acquire Arizona, Arizona State, Utah and Colorado that way they likely leave Kansas alone. If the SEC has 8 slots open for the ACC then ESPN might fund that. In that case they might place B.C., Louisville, Pitt, Syracuse, and Wake Forest in the Big 12, cut Notre Dame, Duke and Virginia loose, and place the remaining 8 in the SEC. Or they might simply move 2 to the SEC, the 2 they most want to keep 100% theirs, and build the ACC into the hoops conference I suggested. And the Big East properties would be easily split between the ACC and Big 12.

We'll see.

Any of those are possible.

It'll all likely come down to circumstances. Who acts first and what they do. The chessboard just seems to be constantly moving lol

Florida State and Kansas is a power move. In part because FSU has a better present brand and value than USC and Kansas is the same with regard to UCLA. USC and UCLA however are the historic brands.

I do believe if ESPN intends to stabilize the ACC that moving just FSU and adding Kansas to the SEC should be a win-win for the network. Minus FSU the ACC could seek to add Cincinnati, Connecticut, and West Virginia and rebalance that conference. Or sub South Florida for one of the above and still do it.

Yup. From an SEC/espn perspective, I think this is the best move on the board, if only adding 2 schools.

The Big10's choices are nowhere near that clear cut. And especially with the Big10 (presumably) having no access to the ACC schools, the SEC currently has the upper hand in realignment potential, in my opinion.

I just don't think adding Stanford, Colorado, Oregon, or Washington, is anywhere close to the adding of FSU-Kansas. (And yes, I'm aware that there are those who disagree : )

Presuming Stanford stays with Cal, I think the Big10's next best response to that is probably Oregon and Colorado for 18.

So in my opinion, I think the Big10 needs to not be caught napping here, and needs to act first, and invite Kansas now.

I suppose the other response to a Kansas-FSU move by the SEC, could be to just invite ND to the Big10 for a deal similar to their ACC deal.

SEC at 18, Big10 at 16+ND.

That's probably their best counter move.

If.

If they can get the individual Big10 schools to accept such a deal, and if ND would agree to it.

Neither is for certain.

Hence, they need to invite Kansas asap : )

(03-19-2023 04:08 PM)Skyhawk Wrote:  I suppose the other response to a Kansas-FSU move by the SEC, could be to just invite ND to the Big10 for a deal similar to their ACC deal.

SEC at 18, Big10 at 16+ND.

That's probably their best counter move.

If.

If they can get the individual Big10 schools to accept such a deal, and if ND would agree to it.

Neither is for certain.

Hence, they need to invite Kansas asap : )

I think that would pretty well end things for the SEC and Big 10.

Lots of scenarios.
Here's just another in a long line of possibilities.
For those that believe that the SEC isn't the strongest football conference and needs to be beefed up just a little bit more.
First I really don't think the SEC or the ACC will go beyond 16 members each. I will put Florida State in the SEC at the expense of South Carolina in an effort to promote Detente.

SEC(16)
Florida, FSU, Georgia, Auburn, Tennessee, Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Alabama,Ole Miss, MDU, LSU, Arkansas, Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas, A&M.

ACC(16)
Boston College, Syracuse, Pitt, Louisville, VT, UVa, Wake, State, Duke, Carolina, Clemson, USC, GT, Miami, South Florida, Notre Dame.

B1G(18)
Rutgers, Maryland, PSU, OSU, Mich, MSU, Purdue, IU,NW, Ill, Wisc, Minn, Iowa, Neb, USC, UCLA, Cal, Stanford

Big 12(20)
Wash, WSU, Oregon, OSU, Utah, BYU, Colorado, ASU, Arizona, ISU, KSU, Kansas, OSU, TT, Baylor, TCU, Houston WV, Cincy, UCF

(03-19-2023 04:11 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(03-19-2023 04:08 PM)Skyhawk Wrote:  I suppose the other response to a Kansas-FSU move by the SEC, could be to just invite ND to the Big10 for a deal similar to their ACC deal.

SEC at 18, Big10 at 16+ND.

That's probably their best counter move.

If.

If they can get the individual Big10 schools to accept such a deal, and if ND would agree to it.

Neither is for certain.

Hence, they need to invite Kansas asap : )

I think that would pretty well end things for the SEC and Big 10.

Well... Until the 2030s, at least : )

(03-19-2023 08:25 PM)XLance Wrote:  Lots of scenarios.
Here's just another in a long line of possibilities.
For those that believe that the SEC isn't the strongest football conference and needs to be beefed up just a little bit more.
First I really don't think the SEC or the ACC will go beyond 16 members each. I will put Florida State in the SEC at the expense of South Carolina in an effort to promote Detente.

SEC(16)
Florida, FSU, Georgia, Auburn, Tennessee, Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Alabama,Ole Miss, MDU, LSU, Arkansas, Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas, A&M.

ACC(16)
Boston College, Syracuse, Pitt, Louisville, VT, UVa, Wake, State, Duke, Carolina, Clemson, USC, GT, Miami, South Florida, Notre Dame.

B1G(18)
Rutgers, Maryland, PSU, OSU, Mich, MSU, Purdue, IU,NW, Ill, Wisc, Minn, Iowa, Neb, USC, UCLA, Cal, Stanford

Big 12(20)
Wash, WSU, Oregon, OSU, Utah, BYU, Colorado, ASU, Arizona, ISU, KSU, Kansas, OSU, TT, Baylor, TCU, Houston WV, Cincy, UCF

Interesting idea.

Though I highly doubt Cal gets a B10 invite, but it's possible, I suppose.

With the ever-expanding difference in media deal dollars, I'm not sure you could convince SC to go from the SEC to the ACC. But, you could also add Kansas to SEC, as JRsec suggests, for 18.

And add "WV, Cincy, UCF" to the ACC, plus Memphis, for 18+ND.

Both moves brings the B12 down to 16. Though, they could add two more for 18. Likely 2 of Boise state, San Diego state, Fresno state, or Tulane.

And then they each would consist of 18 football schools.

(03-19-2023 09:11 PM)Skyhawk Wrote:  

(03-19-2023 08:25 PM)XLance Wrote:  Lots of scenarios.
Here's just another in a long line of possibilities.
For those that believe that the SEC isn't the strongest football conference and needs to be beefed up just a little bit more.
First I really don't think the SEC or the ACC will go beyond 16 members each. I will put Florida State in the SEC at the expense of South Carolina in an effort to promote Detente.

SEC(16)
Florida, FSU, Georgia, Auburn, Tennessee, Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Alabama,Ole Miss, MDU, LSU, Arkansas, Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas, A&M.

ACC(16)
Boston College, Syracuse, Pitt, Louisville, VT, UVa, Wake, State, Duke, Carolina, Clemson, USC, GT, Miami, South Florida, Notre Dame.

B1G(18)
Rutgers, Maryland, PSU, OSU, Mich, MSU, Purdue, IU,NW, Ill, Wisc, Minn, Iowa, Neb, USC, UCLA, Cal, Stanford

Big 12(20)
Wash, WSU, Oregon, OSU, Utah, BYU, Colorado, ASU, Arizona, ISU, KSU, Kansas, OSU, TT, Baylor, TCU, Houston WV, Cincy, UCF

Interesting idea.

Though I highly doubt Cal gets a B10 invite, but it's possible, I suppose.

With the ever-expanding difference in media deal dollars, I'm not sure you could convince SC to go from the SEC to the ACC. But, you could also add Kansas to SEC, as JRsec suggests, for 18.

And add "WV, Cincy, UCF" to the ACC, plus Memphis, for 18+ND.

Both moves brings the B12 down to 16. Though, they could add two more for 18. Likely 2 of Boise state, San Diego state, Fresno state, or Tulane.

And then they each would consist of 18 football schools.

The B1G is all about markets, the SEC is about brands.
The Bay area is a huge market and two teams that can play off of each other helps (see USC and UCLA).

The folks at Notre Dame have a long memory and don't make statements without backing them up. Some examples: When Rutgers tried to force ND to move a scheduled Meadowlands game into the newly remodeled Rutgers Stadium, the three games per year with Big East deal went "out the window" and the Irish inked with the ACC not long afterwards. According to TerryD the Irish vowed never to return to West Virginia again after being treated poorly by WVU fans. Swarbrick publicly complained about travel to Tallahassee....I don't see a long term relationship there.

(03-19-2023 08:25 PM)XLance Wrote:  Lots of scenarios.
Here's just another in a long line of possibilities.
For those that believe that the SEC isn't the strongest football conference and needs to be beefed up just a little bit more.
First I really don't think the SEC or the ACC will go beyond 16 members each. I will put Florida State in the SEC at the expense of South Carolina in an effort to promote Detente.

Yeah, none of that is remotely close to being in the long line of possibilities.

(03-20-2023 05:25 AM)XLance Wrote:  

(03-19-2023 09:11 PM)Skyhawk Wrote:  

(03-19-2023 08:25 PM)XLance Wrote:  Lots of scenarios.
Here's just another in a long line of possibilities.
For those that believe that the SEC isn't the strongest football conference and needs to be beefed up just a little bit more.
First I really don't think the SEC or the ACC will go beyond 16 members each. I will put Florida State in the SEC at the expense of South Carolina in an effort to promote Detente.

SEC(16)
Florida, FSU, Georgia, Auburn, Tennessee, Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Alabama,Ole Miss, MDU, LSU, Arkansas, Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas, A&M.

ACC(16)
Boston College, Syracuse, Pitt, Louisville, VT, UVa, Wake, State, Duke, Carolina, Clemson, USC, GT, Miami, South Florida, Notre Dame.

B1G(18)
Rutgers, Maryland, PSU, OSU, Mich, MSU, Purdue, IU,NW, Ill, Wisc, Minn, Iowa, Neb, USC, UCLA, Cal, Stanford

Big 12(20)
Wash, WSU, Oregon, OSU, Utah, BYU, Colorado, ASU, Arizona, ISU, KSU, Kansas, OSU, TT, Baylor, TCU, Houston WV, Cincy, UCF

Interesting idea.

Though I highly doubt Cal gets a B10 invite, but it's possible, I suppose.

With the ever-expanding difference in media deal dollars, I'm not sure you could convince SC to go from the SEC to the ACC. But, you could also add Kansas to SEC, as JRsec suggests, for 18.

And add "WV, Cincy, UCF" to the ACC, plus Memphis, for 18+ND.

Both moves brings the B12 down to 16. Though, they could add two more for 18. Likely 2 of Boise state, San Diego state, Fresno state, or Tulane.

And then they each would consist of 18 football schools.

The B1G is all about markets, the SEC is about brands.
The Bay area is a huge market and two teams that can play off of each other helps (see USC and UCLA).

The folks at Notre Dame have a long memory and don't make statements without backing them up. Some examples: When Rutgers tried to force ND to move a scheduled Meadowlands game into the newly remodeled Rutgers Stadium, the three games per year with Big East deal went "out the window" and the Irish inked with the ACC not long afterwards. According to TerryD the Irish vowed never to return to West Virginia again after being treated poorly by WVU fans. Swarbrick publicly complained about travel to Tallahassee....I don't see a long term relationship there.

Not just according to me. Its according to reality. The ND statements after the 2000 game in Morgantown are public record.

ND has not played a football game in Morgantown since 2000. It said never again.

(03-20-2023 07:43 AM)TerryD Wrote:  

(03-20-2023 05:25 AM)XLance Wrote:  

(03-19-2023 09:11 PM)Skyhawk Wrote:  

(03-19-2023 08:25 PM)XLance Wrote:  Lots of scenarios.
Here's just another in a long line of possibilities.
For those that believe that the SEC isn't the strongest football conference and needs to be beefed up just a little bit more.
First I really don't think the SEC or the ACC will go beyond 16 members each. I will put Florida State in the SEC at the expense of South Carolina in an effort to promote Detente.

SEC(16)
Florida, FSU, Georgia, Auburn, Tennessee, Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Alabama,Ole Miss, MDU, LSU, Arkansas, Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas, A&M.

ACC(16)
Boston College, Syracuse, Pitt, Louisville, VT, UVa, Wake, State, Duke, Carolina, Clemson, USC, GT, Miami, South Florida, Notre Dame.

B1G(18)
Rutgers, Maryland, PSU, OSU, Mich, MSU, Purdue, IU,NW, Ill, Wisc, Minn, Iowa, Neb, USC, UCLA, Cal, Stanford

Big 12(20)
Wash, WSU, Oregon, OSU, Utah, BYU, Colorado, ASU, Arizona, ISU, KSU, Kansas, OSU, TT, Baylor, TCU, Houston WV, Cincy, UCF

Interesting idea.

Though I highly doubt Cal gets a B10 invite, but it's possible, I suppose.

With the ever-expanding difference in media deal dollars, I'm not sure you could convince SC to go from the SEC to the ACC. But, you could also add Kansas to SEC, as JRsec suggests, for 18.

And add "WV, Cincy, UCF" to the ACC, plus Memphis, for 18+ND.

Both moves brings the B12 down to 16. Though, they could add two more for 18. Likely 2 of Boise state, San Diego state, Fresno state, or Tulane.

And then they each would consist of 18 football schools.

The B1G is all about markets, the SEC is about brands.
The Bay area is a huge market and two teams that can play off of each other helps (see USC and UCLA).

The folks at Notre Dame have a long memory and don't make statements without backing them up. Some examples: When Rutgers tried to force ND to move a scheduled Meadowlands game into the newly remodeled Rutgers Stadium, the three games per year with Big East deal went "out the window" and the Irish inked with the ACC not long afterwards. According to TerryD the Irish vowed never to return to West Virginia again after being treated poorly by WVU fans. Swarbrick publicly complained about travel to Tallahassee....I don't see a long term relationship there.

Not just according to me. Its according to reality. The ND statements after the 2000 game in Morgantown are public record.

ND has not played a football game in Morgantown since 2000. It said never again.

BTW, Notre Dame recently inked a home and home with USF for 2029, 2031.

(03-20-2023 07:43 AM)TerryD Wrote:  

(03-20-2023 05:25 AM)XLance Wrote:  

(03-19-2023 09:11 PM)Skyhawk Wrote:  

(03-19-2023 08:25 PM)XLance Wrote:  Lots of scenarios.
Here's just another in a long line of possibilities.
For those that believe that the SEC isn't the strongest football conference and needs to be beefed up just a little bit more.
First I really don't think the SEC or the ACC will go beyond 16 members each. I will put Florida State in the SEC at the expense of South Carolina in an effort to promote Detente.

SEC(16)
Florida, FSU, Georgia, Auburn, Tennessee, Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Alabama,Ole Miss, MDU, LSU, Arkansas, Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas, A&M.

ACC(16)
Boston College, Syracuse, Pitt, Louisville, VT, UVa, Wake, State, Duke, Carolina, Clemson, USC, GT, Miami, South Florida, Notre Dame.

B1G(18)
Rutgers, Maryland, PSU, OSU, Mich, MSU, Purdue, IU,NW, Ill, Wisc, Minn, Iowa, Neb, USC, UCLA, Cal, Stanford

Big 12(20)
Wash, WSU, Oregon, OSU, Utah, BYU, Colorado, ASU, Arizona, ISU, KSU, Kansas, OSU, TT, Baylor, TCU, Houston WV, Cincy, UCF

Interesting idea.

Though I highly doubt Cal gets a B10 invite, but it's possible, I suppose.

With the ever-expanding difference in media deal dollars, I'm not sure you could convince SC to go from the SEC to the ACC. But, you could also add Kansas to SEC, as JRsec suggests, for 18.

And add "WV, Cincy, UCF" to the ACC, plus Memphis, for 18+ND.

Both moves brings the B12 down to 16. Though, they could add two more for 18. Likely 2 of Boise state, San Diego state, Fresno state, or Tulane.

And then they each would consist of 18 football schools.

The B1G is all about markets, the SEC is about brands.
The Bay area is a huge market and two teams that can play off of each other helps (see USC and UCLA).

The folks at Notre Dame have a long memory and don't make statements without backing them up. Some examples: When Rutgers tried to force ND to move a scheduled Meadowlands game into the newly remodeled Rutgers Stadium, the three games per year with Big East deal went "out the window" and the Irish inked with the ACC not long afterwards. According to TerryD the Irish vowed never to return to West Virginia again after being treated poorly by WVU fans. Swarbrick publicly complained about travel to Tallahassee....I don't see a long term relationship there.

Not just according to me. Its according to reality. The ND statements after the 2000 game in Morgantown are public record.

ND has not played a football game in Morgantown since 2000. It said never again.

Wow.

It's been over 20 years, and "never" is a long time.

Do you think there's any chance that ND might offer forgiveness, and give WV fans another chance?

1990 was a different cycle. There had been a lot of stability among football conferences since the mid-70s. That was the UGA/OU win over the NCAA cycle. That cycle of the end of the NCAA TV monopoly ran from 1984 to 2005 culminating after the MWC had seceded from the WAC 16 (1998) and the Big West morphed into the Sun Belt (2001) and the ACC made the first two raids on the Big East (2004-5) to capitalize on a CCG. The SWC disappeared, Big East formed.

Then came the conference network cycle with the BTN. That saw the end of the Big East and the formation of the AAC mostly out of the CUSA. That cycle ended in 2020 when the streaming/NIL cycle began.

OUT and USC/UCLA are only the beginnings of the next cycle. I think it takes a while to play out. Streaming hasn't been monetized yet. NIL is just beginning. Pay for play or some version thereof has not quite happened.

That cycle is just starting.

I just don't see the money in 24 team leagues to even break even, let alone to justify all the disadvantages of such a big league. I do think its hard for the Big 10 and SEC to ignore UW, Oregon, FSU and Clemson. It may take until 2036, but those 4 move to the P2 getting them to 18 and they probably find other attractive candidates to get to 20. I think ND will find independence and the ACC no longer viable.

AP MNCs since 1968
SEC 25
B10 13
UW/OR/FSU/Clemson 6
Catholics and Convicts 8
All other 3 (CU,BYU,Pitt)

Top 3 finishes since 1968
SEC 61
B10 48
UW/OR/FSU/Clemson 23
Catholics and Convicts 17
All other 16 (CU & TCU 3, Pitt 2, 8 others with 1)

Top 5 finishes since 1968
SEC 99
B10 81
UW/OR/FSU/Clemson 34
Catholics and Convicts 24
All other 37 (CU 5, TCU&Pitt&ASU 3, 7 with 2, 9 with 1)

(03-20-2023 05:21 PM)bullet Wrote:  1990 was a different cycle. There had been a lot of stability among football conferences since the mid-70s. That was the UGA/OU win over the NCAA cycle. That cycle of the end of the NCAA TV monopoly ran from 1984 to 2005 culminating after the MWC had seceded from the WAC 16 (1998) and the Big West morphed into the Sun Belt (2001) and the ACC made the first two raids on the Big East (2004-5) to capitalize on a CCG. The SWC disappeared, Big East formed.

Then came the conference network cycle with the BTN. That saw the end of the Big East and the formation of the AAC mostly out of the CUSA. That cycle ended in 2020 when the streaming/NIL cycle began.

OUT and USC/UCLA are only the beginnings of the next cycle. I think it takes a while to play out. Streaming hasn't been monetized yet. NIL is just beginning. Pay for play or some version thereof has not quite happened.

That cycle is just starting.

I just don't see the money in 24 team leagues to even break even, let alone to justify all the disadvantages of such a big league. I do think its hard for the Big 10 and SEC to ignore UW, Oregon, FSU and Clemson. It may take until 2036, but those 4 move to the P2 getting them to 18 and they probably find other attractive candidates to get to 20. I think ND will find independence and the ACC no longer viable.

AP MNCs since 1968
SEC 25
B10 13
UW/OR/FSU/Clemson 6
Catholics and Convicts 8
All other 3 (CU,BYU,Pitt)

Top 3 finishes since 1968
SEC 61
B10 48
UW/OR/FSU/Clemson 23
Catholics and Convicts 17
All other 16 (CU & TCU 3, Pitt 2, 8 others with 1)

Top 5 finishes since 1968
SEC 99
B10 81
UW/OR/FSU/Clemson 34
Catholics and Convicts 24
All other 37 (CU 5, TCU&Pitt&ASU 3, 7 with 2, 9 with 1)

I wouldn't disagree, I just see the changes in technology redirecting an ongoing cycle which I think ends with an upper tier. You nailed the main targets, but I would not rule out Kansas, North Carolina, Duke and Virginia for markets and hoops. Once things get monetized for basketball the tournament proceeds will payout 2 and a quarter more in revenue annually than the NCAA version. Regular season will get a boost as well. I can see 20, and Warren, Sankey and others have mentioned finding 22 which could add value. But basically past 20 any school added would essentially be subsidized by a network, and that's fair if the network wants to reach said market and the school can at least get close to being neutral value.

I like the 18 team model and the idea of leaving the ACC alone, or just taking Florida State and adding Kansas to the West. A reasonably healthy ACC is the best buffer against the Big 10's expansion dreams. It also allows ESPN to build a basketball first conference, which suits their identity, around the remainder. Perhaps 19 & 20 for the SEC could be Miami and Clemson as both would be close to neutral value, Clemson more so.

Where I would disagree is in waiting until 2036. Literally that locks too many programs, conferences, and the networks into a much less profitable position for the last 12 years of the Boomer bonanza interest in college sports. And we are talking 440 million plus would be lost by not moving reasonably soon. We'll see.

BTW, you should run those numbers over the last 25 years, going back to 1998. The difference is quite stark!

(03-20-2023 05:21 PM)bullet Wrote:  1990 was a different cycle. There had been a lot of stability among football conferences since the mid-70s. That was the UGA/OU win over the NCAA cycle. That cycle of the end of the NCAA TV monopoly ran from 1984 to 2005 culminating after the MWC had seceded from the WAC 16 (1998) and the Big West morphed into the Sun Belt (2001) and the ACC made the first two raids on the Big East (2004-5) to capitalize on a CCG. The SWC disappeared, Big East formed.

Then came the conference network cycle with the BTN. That saw the end of the Big East and the formation of the AAC mostly out of the CUSA. That cycle ended in 2020 when the streaming/NIL cycle began.

OUT and USC/UCLA are only the beginnings of the next cycle. I think it takes a while to play out. Streaming hasn't been monetized yet. NIL is just beginning. Pay for play or some version thereof has not quite happened.

That cycle is just starting.

I just don't see the money in 24 team leagues to even break even, let alone to justify all the disadvantages of such a big league. I do think its hard for the Big 10 and SEC to ignore UW, Oregon, FSU and Clemson. It may take until 2036, but those 4 move to the P2 getting them to 18 and they probably find other attractive candidates to get to 20. I think ND will find independence and the ACC no longer viable.

AP MNCs since 1968
SEC 25
B10 13
UW/OR/FSU/Clemson 6
Catholics and Convicts 8
All other 3 (CU,BYU,Pitt)

Top 3 finishes since 1968
SEC 61
B10 48
UW/OR/FSU/Clemson 23
Catholics and Convicts 17
All other 16 (CU & TCU 3, Pitt 2, 8 others with 1)

Top 5 finishes since 1968
SEC 99
B10 81
UW/OR/FSU/Clemson 34
Catholics and Convicts 24
All other 37 (CU 5, TCU&Pitt&ASU 3, 7 with 2, 9 with 1)

Based upon your premise and numbers, I could see the 4 for each being:

SEC: FSU, Clemson, TCU, and a 4th, likely Miami - the 3 each from TX and FL, scenario.

Big10: WA, OR, CO, and for the 4th, Pitt could be possible, but I think Kansas, for the reasons I stated above.

This would leave the ACC viable. NC et al would want a raise though, I think.

And the PAC, probably done, unless they get real friendly with the MWC and possibly BigWest..

I think that most stakeholders/decisionmakers (besides the PAC, I suppose), would not mind such an outcome.

(03-20-2023 12:19 PM)Skyhawk Wrote:  

(03-20-2023 07:43 AM)TerryD Wrote:  

(03-20-2023 05:25 AM)XLance Wrote:  

(03-19-2023 09:11 PM)Skyhawk Wrote:  

(03-19-2023 08:25 PM)XLance Wrote:  Lots of scenarios.
Here's just another in a long line of possibilities.
For those that believe that the SEC isn't the strongest football conference and needs to be beefed up just a little bit more.
First I really don't think the SEC or the ACC will go beyond 16 members each. I will put Florida State in the SEC at the expense of South Carolina in an effort to promote Detente.

SEC(16)
Florida, FSU, Georgia, Auburn, Tennessee, Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Alabama,Ole Miss, MDU, LSU, Arkansas, Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas, A&M.

ACC(16)
Boston College, Syracuse, Pitt, Louisville, VT, UVa, Wake, State, Duke, Carolina, Clemson, USC, GT, Miami, South Florida, Notre Dame.

B1G(18)
Rutgers, Maryland, PSU, OSU, Mich, MSU, Purdue, IU,NW, Ill, Wisc, Minn, Iowa, Neb, USC, UCLA, Cal, Stanford

Big 12(20)
Wash, WSU, Oregon, OSU, Utah, BYU, Colorado, ASU, Arizona, ISU, KSU, Kansas, OSU, TT, Baylor, TCU, Houston WV, Cincy, UCF

Interesting idea.

Though I highly doubt Cal gets a B10 invite, but it's possible, I suppose.

With the ever-expanding difference in media deal dollars, I'm not sure you could convince SC to go from the SEC to the ACC. But, you could also add Kansas to SEC, as JRsec suggests, for 18.

And add "WV, Cincy, UCF" to the ACC, plus Memphis, for 18+ND.

Both moves brings the B12 down to 16. Though, they could add two more for 18. Likely 2 of Boise state, San Diego state, Fresno state, or Tulane.

And then they each would consist of 18 football schools.

The B1G is all about markets, the SEC is about brands.
The Bay area is a huge market and two teams that can play off of each other helps (see USC and UCLA).

The folks at Notre Dame have a long memory and don't make statements without backing them up. Some examples: When Rutgers tried to force ND to move a scheduled Meadowlands game into the newly remodeled Rutgers Stadium, the three games per year with Big East deal went "out the window" and the Irish inked with the ACC not long afterwards. According to TerryD the Irish vowed never to return to West Virginia again after being treated poorly by WVU fans. Swarbrick publicly complained about travel to Tallahassee....I don't see a long term relationship there.

Not just according to me. Its according to reality. The ND statements after the 2000 game in Morgantown are public record.

ND has not played a football game in Morgantown since 2000. It said never again.

Wow.

It's been over 20 years, and "never" is a long time.

Do you think there's any chance that ND might offer forgiveness, and give WV fans another chance?

No.