There is nothing certain where realignment is concerned except that for this generation it has seemed endless. And while there will be likely others I think this cycle of it which began in earnest in 1990 is about at an end. We have a few moves left to be made and reorganization will finalize for at least a while.

As things stand now there is some kind of understanding that the Big 10 likely has unfinished business to the West. With Oregon getting a new chancellor from Wisconsin the ties between the Big 10 and PAC are simply being amplified. In the end I think that those old ties will be too great, and mean way too much between two academic associations which share a similar though not totally comparable vision of the mission of their universities and essentially in athletics as well.

I'm going to assume that Washington and Stanford will be the next additions for the Big 10 and that shortly thereafter Oregon and California will be present as well.

POTENTIAL #1:

A six team PAC 12 division for the Big 10, though it could be five, seems likely to me.

Interestingly the SEC could complete its own 6 team truly West division as well if it added AAU members and state flagships Kansas and Colorado.

Even if the Big 10 only takes two more to the West to move to 18 the SEC should consider the integrity and synergy of its own 6 school western Big 12 division.

If the Big 10 does make the move to 20 by adding 4 to the West then the logical move for the SEC would be to pick up the schools which complete its Deep South identity. Here's where Clemson and Florida State make sense.

Personally, I think either 18 or 20 are very natural stopping points for both of the Super 2 conferences.

What is spared by simply moving to 18? It leaves us a West Coast conference even if it is called Big 12 and an East Coast Conference called the ACC.

The basketball rich Big 12 won't miss Kansas if they land Arizona and add Gonzaga. Colorado won't be missed either. But the Buffs may miss some California schools, but they would at least have recruiting trails back in a manageable way.

And while there are those who rightly point out right now that no PAC school will join the Big 12, I'm not so sure that remains the case should Washington, Oregon, Stanford, and possibly California join the Big 10. At that point it's any port in a storm, and the Big 12 harbor will look safe enough.

The ACC could remain intact with Notre Dame continuing as an independent and with the addition of West Virginia and Cincinnati which would expand markets and increase competitiveness while once again connecting their East Coast schools, but add in Tulane and Connecticut and it fits together nicely.

With no schools lost in Florida they would have no need to add any. South Florida could head to the Big 12 with the departure of Kansas.

ESPN could use the additions to offer some relief to Clemson, Miami, and Florida State, and perhaps North Carolina by at least finding ways to bump those 4 programs with the 2 additions opening the contract.

A 18 plus 1 would exist in the ACC. ESPN would be picking up a new time zone with Colorado and a basketball blueblood to play rival to Kentucky. And those 2 additions solve some of the irregular growth issues of the 2012 realignment in the SEC.

SEC

Colorado, Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas A&M

Alabama, Arkansas, Auburn, Louisiana State, Mississippi, Mississippi State

Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, South Carolina, Tennessee, Vanderbilt.

The Big 12 and PAC remnant could form an 18-school conference.

Big 12

Arizona, Arizona State, Oregon, Oregon State, San Diego State, Washington State

Brigham Young, Colorado State, Iowa State, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Utah

Baylor, Central Florida, Houston, South Florida, Texas Christian, Texas Tech


ACC:

Boston College, Cincinnati, Connecticut, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, West Virginia

Duke, North Carolina, N.C. State, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest

Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Louisville, Miami, Tulane

*Notre Dame as all but football

B1G:

California Los Angeles, Iowa, Nebraska, Southern California, Stanford, Washington

Illinois, Michigan, Michigan State, Minnesota, Northwestern, Wisconsin

Indiana, Maryland, Ohio State, Penn State, Purdue, Rutgers



This is actually my preferred model with this modification:

The ACC would also add for all but football the old core Big East Basketball schools: Georgetown, Providence, Seton Hall, St. John's, Villanova and new member Xavier.

The Big 12 would add for all but football: Butler, Creighton, De Paul, Gonzaga, Marquette, Mt. St. Mary's

These additions would add to the overall revenue of the conference and pay some of the best of the rest basketball schools a higher amount than the conferences they are presently in.

The networks would have 36 schools they paid top dollar to land and 36 they paid at rates near what they pay those conferences now.

But somehow, I don't believe the Big 10 will stop at 18 with 4 West Coast teams because old associations will strongly indicate inclusion for Oregon and/or Cal, depending upon what Notre Dame does. And because 4 out West simply makes the whole system feel imbalanced and awkward. If the Irish join they'll end with 5 in the West. If Notre Dame remains aloof then 6 in the West screws up divisions even though it makes sense because it limits travel expense. Unlike the SEC 18 is awkward for the Big 10. But, 20 is not. So what do you do if the Irish aren't apart?

*****************************************************************

I don't think the ACC can be secured as long as Clemson, Miami, and FSU are staunchly insistent upon Big 10 / SEC level money for their aspirations in football.

So, POTENTIAL #2: Both the SEC and Big 10 move to 20

Notre Dame sees the handwriting on the wall that an upper tier of contained schools will only play each other and likely break down into 3, maybe 4 conferences. The Big 10 is the best proximity for ND's minor sports and the academic associations are right for them. With rumors flying that the SEC will move to 20 with two of the football first schools of the ACC, and that ESPN has other plans for the ACC, Notre Dame is stuck. They aren't joining the SEC. The PAC is going away. There's nobody left in the Big 12 they want to play. So, the Big 10 can't turn them down and needs a traveling companion for them. With 4 schools to the West (USC, UCLA, Washington, Stanford) they add Oregon and the Big 10 moves to 20.

California Los Angeles, Oregon, Southern Cal, Stanford, Washington

Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, Wisconsin

Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State

Maryland, Notre Dame, Penn State, Purdue, Rutgers


The ACC loses Clemson, Florida State, and partial Notre Dame. They move to four 4 team divisions for football and remains expanded as they are for all but football additions. The Big 12 loses Oregon and adds Fresno State. Remains at 18 with expanded all but football additions intact.

With the SEC now seeing the combined added value of Notre Dame with Oregon they match the move to 20, working out details with ESPN and ESPN in turn with the ACC they now add two schools which have sustainable value and best match the SEC profile, Florida State and Clemson.

The 20 team SEC:

Colorado, Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas

Alabama, Arkansas, Louisiana State, Mississippi, Texas A&M

Auburn, Florida State, Florida, Georgia, Mississippi State

Clemson, Kentucky, South Carolina, Tennessee, Vanderbilt

Now this configuration could prove unpopular compared to the balance and geographical sense of the 18. The value keeps pace with the Big 10 additions and keeps the SEC still out in front comfortably.

But the alignment they had at 18 was so solid. Many want to bring the balance they lack back to the alignment of 18 by considering the move to 24. If they add four of North Carolina, N.C. State, Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech and Miami they can build acceptable divisions, lock up rivalries, and lock down the Deep South identity they want to protect. And this leads to...

Potential #3

SEC:

ACC Division: Clemson, Florida State, Miami, North Carolina, N.C. State, Virginia Tech

SEC E. Div: Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, South Carolina, Tennessee, Vanderbilt

SEC W. Div: Alabama, Arkansas, Auburn, Louisiana State, Mississippi, Miss State

B12 Division: Colorado, Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas A&M


The Big 10 responds with their own which also makes geographical sense:

ACC/BE Division: Duke, Maryland, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, Rutgers, Virginia

B1G East: Indiana, Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State, Penn State, Purdue

B1G West: Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, Wisconsin

PAC Division: California, California, Los Angeles, Oregon, Southern Cal, Stanford, Washington

The NEW B12:

PAC: Arizona, Arizona State, Brigham Young, Oregon State, Utah, Washington State

Plains: Iowa State, Colorado State, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Texas Christian, Texas Tech

Central: Baylor, Central Florida, Georgia Tech, Houston, South Florida, Tulane

East: Boston College, Cincinnati, Louisville, Syracuse, Wake Forest, West Virginia


I don't know if we get there, or stop at 20, or stop at 18 members, or if the SEC and Big 10 got to 20 each while the ACC stays at 16 and the New Big 12 stays at 16 and both of those conferences add solid hoops programs who don't carry football. But somewhere in here is something which will likely be close to what we end up with.

It's quiet during the tournament, but when March Madness is done, things on the realignment front will only be a couple of weeks away from Warren starting his new job.

Until then the debate will rage on about whether PAC schools end up in the Big 12, and whether the PAC has a new TV contract or not. The schools want to keep open options and the networks won't pay for a conference which may lose top product so that's why the offers are low. And nobody is signing a GOR until they know. So once the Big 10 makes a decision about further PAC expansion the rest of this will be back in motion.

And basketball revenue? It will motivate, along with court rulings, the breakaway upper tier.

(03-19-2023 07:24 AM)JRsec Wrote:  There is nothing certain where realignment is concerned except that for this generation it has seemed endless. And while there will be likely others I think this cycle of it which began in earnest in 1990 is about at an end. We have a few moves left to be made and reorganization will finalize for at least a while.

As things stand now there is some kind of understanding that the Big 10 likely has unfinished business to the West. With Oregon getting a new chancellor from Wisconsin the ties between the Big 10 and PAC are simply being amplified. In the end I think that those old ties will be too great, and mean way too much between two academic associations which share a similar though not totally comparable vision of the mission of their universities and essentially in athletics as well.

I'm going to assume that Washington and Stanford will be the next additions for the Big 10 and that shortly thereafter Oregon and California will be present as well.

POTENTIAL #1:

A six team PAC 12 division for the Big 10, though it could be five, seems likely to me.

Interestingly the SEC could complete its own 6 team truly West division as well if it added AAU members and state flagships Kansas and Colorado.

Even if the Big 10 only takes two more to the West to move to 18 the SEC should consider the integrity and synergy of its own 6 school western Big 12 division.

If the Big 10 does make the move to 20 by adding 4 to the West then the logical move for the SEC would be to pick up the schools which complete its Deep South identity. Here's where Clemson and Florida State make sense.

Personally, I think either 18 or 20 are very natural stopping points for both of the Super 2 conferences.

What is spared by simply moving to 18? It leaves us a West Coast conference even if it is called Big 12 and an East Coast Conference called the ACC.

The basketball rich Big 12 won't miss Kansas if they land Arizona and add Gonzaga. Colorado won't be missed either. But the Buffs may miss some California schools, but they would at least have recruiting trails back in a manageable way.

And while there are those who rightly point out right now that no PAC school will join the Big 12, I'm not so sure that remains the case should Washington, Oregon, Stanford, and possibly California join the Big 10. At that point it's any port in a storm, and the Big 12 harbor will look safe enough.

The ACC could remain intact with Notre Dame continuing as an independent and with the addition of West Virginia and Cincinnati which would expand markets and increase competitiveness while once again connecting their East Coast schools, but add in Tulane and Connecticut and it fits together nicely.

With no schools lost in Florida they would have no need to add any. South Florida could head to the Big 12 with the departure of Kansas.

ESPN could use the additions to offer some relief to Clemson, Miami, and Florida State, and perhaps North Carolina by at least finding ways to bump those 4 programs with the 2 additions opening the contract.

A 18 plus 1 would exist in the ACC. ESPN would be picking up a new time zone with Colorado and a basketball blueblood to play rival to Kentucky. And those 2 additions solve some of the irregular growth issues of the 2012 realignment in the SEC.

SEC

Colorado, Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas A&M

Alabama, Arkansas, Auburn, Louisiana State, Mississippi, Mississippi State

Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, South Carolina, Tennessee, Vanderbilt.

The Big 12 and PAC remnant could form an 18-school conference.

Big 12

Arizona, Arizona State, Oregon, Oregon State, San Diego State, Washington State

Brigham Young, Colorado State, Iowa State, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Utah

Baylor, Central Florida, Houston, South Florida, Texas Christian, Texas Tech


ACC:

Boston College, Cincinnati, Connecticut, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, West Virginia

Duke, North Carolina, N.C. State, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest

Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Louisville, Miami, Tulane

*Notre Dame as all but football

B1G:

California Los Angeles, Iowa, Nebraska, Southern California, Stanford, Washington

Illinois, Michigan, Michigan State, Minnesota, Northwestern, Wisconsin

Indiana, Maryland, Ohio State, Penn State, Purdue, Rutgers



This is actually my preferred model with this modification:

The ACC would also add for all but football the old core Big East Basketball schools: Georgetown, Providence, Seton Hall, St. John's, Villanova and new member Xavier.

The Big 12 would add for all but football: Butler, Creighton, De Paul, Gonzaga, Marquette, Mt. St. Mary's

These additions would add to the overall revenue of the conference and pay some of the best of the rest basketball schools a higher amount than the conferences they are presently in.

The networks would have 36 schools they paid top dollar to land and 36 they paid at rates near what they pay those conferences now.

But somehow, I don't believe the Big 10 will stop at 18 with 4 West Coast teams because old associations will strongly indicate inclusion for Oregon and/or Cal, depending upon what Notre Dame does. And because 4 out West simply makes the whole system feel imbalanced and awkward. If the Irish join they'll end with 5 in the West. If Notre Dame remains aloof then 6 in the West screws up divisions even though it makes sense because it limits travel expense. Unlike the SEC 18 is awkward for the Big 10. But, 20 is not. So what do you do if the Irish aren't apart?

*****************************************************************

I don't think the ACC can be secured as long as Clemson, Miami, and FSU are staunchly insistent upon Big 10 / SEC level money for their aspirations in football.

So, POTENTIAL #2: Both the SEC and Big 10 move to 20

Notre Dame sees the handwriting on the wall that an upper tier of contained schools will only play each other and likely break down into 3, maybe 4 conferences. The Big 10 is the best proximity for ND's minor sports and the academic associations are right for them. With rumors flying that the SEC will move to 20 with two of the football first schools of the ACC, and that ESPN has other plans for the ACC, Notre Dame is stuck. They aren't joining the SEC. The PAC is going away. There's nobody left in the Big 12 they want to play. So, the Big 10 can't turn them down and needs a traveling companion for them. With 4 schools to the West (USC, UCLA, Washington, Stanford) they add Oregon and the Big 10 moves to 20.

California Los Angeles, Oregon, Southern Cal, Stanford, Washington

Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, Wisconsin

Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State

Maryland, Notre Dame, Penn State, Purdue, Rutgers


The ACC loses Clemson, Florida State, and partial Notre Dame. They move to four 4 team divisions for football and remains expanded as they are for all but football additions. The Big 12 loses Oregon and adds Fresno State. Remains at 18 with expanded all but football additions intact.

With the SEC now seeing the combined added value of Notre Dame with Oregon they match the move to 20, working out details with ESPN and ESPN in turn with the ACC they now add two schools which have sustainable value and best match the SEC profile, Florida State and Clemson.

The 20 team SEC:

Colorado, Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas

Alabama, Arkansas, Louisiana State, Mississippi, Texas A&M

Auburn, Florida State, Florida, Georgia, Mississippi State

Clemson, Kentucky, South Carolina, Tennessee, Vanderbilt

Now this configuration could prove unpopular compared to the balance and geographical sense of the 18. The value keeps pace with the Big 10 additions and keeps the SEC still out in front comfortably.

But the alignment they had at 18 was so solid. Many want to bring the balance they lack back to the alignment of 18 by considering the move to 24. If they add four of North Carolina, N.C. State, Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech and Miami they can build acceptable divisions, lock up rivalries, and lock down the Deep South identity they want to protect. And this leads to...

Potential #3

SEC:

ACC Division: Clemson, Florida State, Miami, North Carolina, N.C. State, Virginia Tech

SEC E. Div: Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, South Carolina, Tennessee, Vanderbilt

SEC W. Div: Alabama, Arkansas, Auburn, Louisiana State, Mississippi, Miss State

B12 Division: Colorado, Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas A&M


The Big 10 responds with their own which also makes geographical sense:

ACC/BE Division: Duke, Maryland, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, Rutgers, Virginia

B1G East: Indiana, Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State, Penn State, Purdue

B1G West: Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, Wisconsin

PAC Division: California, California, Los Angeles, Oregon, Southern Cal, Stanford, Washington

The NEW B12:

PAC: Arizona, Arizona State, Brigham Young, Oregon State, Utah, Washington State

Plains: Iowa State, Colorado State, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Texas Christian, Texas Tech

Central: Baylor, Central Florida, Georgia Tech, Houston, South Florida, Tulane

East: Boston College, Cincinnati, Louisville, Syracuse, Wake Forest, West Virginia


I don't know if we get there, or stop at 20, or stop at 18 members, or if the SEC and Big 10 got to 20 each while the ACC stays at 16 and the New Big 12 stays at 16 and both of those conferences add solid hoops programs who don't carry football. But somewhere in here is something which will likely be close to what we end up with.

It's quiet during the tournament, but when March Madness is done, things on the realignment front will only be a couple of weeks away from Warren starting his new job.

Until then the debate will rage on about whether PAC schools end up in the Big 12, and whether the PAC has a new TV contract or not. The schools want to keep open options and the networks won't pay for a conference which may lose top product so that's why the offers are low. And nobody is signing a GOR until they know. So once the Big 10 makes a decision about further PAC expansion the rest of this will be back in motion.

And basketball revenue? It will motivate, along with court rulings, the breakaway upper tier.

I'll take what's behind door #2 although I would be fine with door #3 as well.

I think Kansas is pretty valuable. To me, there just needs to be a compelling addition to go along with them in order to make it work. When Texas and Oklahoma joined, Kansas would have been a 3rd wheel and it just wouldn't have worked.

With SEC basketball getting better and better, the value of Kansas in the SEC could increase rather than just being a solid content addition. I've long theorized that ESPN wants to control Kansas basketball because they, unlike other networks, have a vested interest in the college basketball season and KU is one of the very few programs that brings a great national audience every time you show them.

Now, it's true that Big 12 basketball is pretty darn good in its own right and is getting better...especially if a school like Gonzaga is added as well. The only problem with Big 12 basketball is the same problem with Big 12 football...there's a lot of quality, just not any big time brands. The exception, of course, is Kansas.

With Missouri and now Oklahoma already in the SEC, there's some good regional rivals for KU. At that, Arkansas is not far away and they also take basketball very seriously. Any match-ups with Kentucky will be gravy when it comes to ratings.

Colorado has potential in football. They've shown it in the past and now appear more committed to it than in the recent past. Hiring Deion Sanders was an interesting move and one that demonstrates they want to be relevant nationally.

The strength of Colorado is also the geographic flexibility. The Denver market is a great one that any conference would want to have...in fact, it would basically fit in any conference outside the ACC. The flexibility I spoke about is this...they're really nowhere near the West Coast even if they play in the PAC. It's not really a Midwestern market either even though it's quite close to the Plains States. It's also not far from Texas and Oklahoma. Culturally speaking, it's a little bit of all those places.

CO is one of those states that has been influenced by the Heartland quite a bit over the last 150 years. Mining and brewing have more of an influence over the state's history as opposed to tourism even if we think it's the latter. Even if today we identify the culture with marijuana smoking ski bums and elites vacationing in places like Aspen; CO is a place that attracts people from every corner of the country. Culturally, it's a mixture and politically, it's only recently started leaning Blue since a ton of people from California decided to relocate.

Most of the Western states with significant population have shed the Heartland image in one respect or the other. There are pockets of the old Americana in these states, they just don't define the culture. I don't get the sense that CO fits into that mould, however. That place is uniquely beautiful and has been providing unique economic opportunity for a long time.

I'm not trying to make too much of culture, it's simply that Colorado isn't a true West Coast state even if we think of them that way.

It's about 1300 miles from Denver to Birmingham. It's also about 1300 miles from Denver to Seattle.

It's about 1000 miles from Denver to LA. It's about 900 miles from Denver to Austin.

It's about 1200 miles from Denver to San Francisco. It's about 1100 from Denver to Memphis.

Point being, the state of Colorado is more in the middle of the country as opposed to being on the West Coast. I understand that CU has alumni in CA and recruits students there, but they could just as easily recruit students and athletes from the Southeast.

I think Kansas and Colorado would work in the SEC. They're also available. If the Big Ten considers taking more from PAC country then CU has to understand that. There's been much made of the fact their Board has had a ton of meetings in recent months. I'm not saying they've been talking to the SEC because I have no idea, but it does make sense for the SEC to expand that direction.

Colorado with a “Southeastern Conference” logo on the uniforms, courts, and fields is a funny thought.

(03-19-2023 10:08 PM)BePcr07 Wrote:  Colorado with a “Southeastern Conference” logo on the uniforms, courts, and fields is a funny thought.

Just cornering the market on live bovine mascots. You never know when you might find meat hard to get!

(03-19-2023 10:15 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(03-19-2023 10:08 PM)BePcr07 Wrote:  Colorado with a “Southeastern Conference” logo on the uniforms, courts, and fields is a funny thought.

Just cornering the market on live bovine mascots. You never know when you might find meat hard to get!

Louisville and Notre Dame are not ATLANTIC COAST. Arizona. Arizona State, Utah, and Colorado, are not PACIFIC. Texas A&M, Texas, Oklahoma, Missouri, and Arkansas are not SOUTHEASTERN.

Names are beyond geographic limitations. Branding and historical prestige are most important. The SEC being contiguous states is a very positive and valuable feature.

Not that I am necessarily advocating for adding Kansas and Colorado to the SEC, but both are contiguous to SEC states. So is much of the BIG.

On the cultural fit matter, that oftentimes gets overstated as a factor. Compatibility in resources and facilities, the spectrum and level of sports offered, attendance numbers, W-L records, institutional types, etc. are the essential variables. A regional connection, even on the outer perimeters, contributes to cohesion.

How will UCLA and USCw work for the long term in the BIG? We’ll see in due time perhaps.

What will the SEC value most with future expansion choices?

If it is all about what schools are most SEC-like in the SEC footprint, then the answer is obvious: Florida State and Clemson.

If it about new formidable markets, North Carolina would be the jewel for this. Cover Charlotte. The city is a growing banking and high tech hub and the metro area moves across the border into South Carolina. NC State would also have value in this regard. The Raleigh-Durham area is a high value market as well.

Getting the Virginia market (or part of) to complement the above should be a serious consideration.

UNC and NCSU have the same system governance board. There are NCSU interests involved with any potential UNC move. That is often ignored during the expansion speculation.

Virginia potentially moving without Virginia Tech being taken care of, will be an issue with Commonwealth governing entities.

Miami, Georgia Tech, Duke, Wake Forest, and Louisville don’t have similar moving shackles. However, whether the SEC would be highly attracted to any of those remains to be seen. In certain scenarios, one could see Miami, Duke, and possibly Georgia Tech, as eventual options. When Miami performs very well, they do get the crowds and do have TV popularity.

To the west, Kansas would be useful in terms of adding a perennial basketball power and adding a flagship school in another state. It would give Missouri, and Oklahoma somewhat, an enhanced geographic comfort zone. Otherwise, Kansas football is usually dismal.

To me, SEC new expansion starting with FSU, Clemson, UNC and/or NCSU would be the most pragmatic. We’ll see how matters develop within the ACC.