Sometimes You Just Need To See What Happened: Current Realignment Visualized
We have undergone the announcements of movement of Texas and Oklahoma to the SEC and the movement of U.S.C. and U.C.L.A. to the Big Ten. We know that Brigham Young, Central Florida, Cincinnati, and Houston will move to the Big 12.
What does that actually mean? To help people visualize why specifically this is a radical change we will use some actual numbers to illustrate what has transpired statistically.
The Gross Total Revenue Averages are from the last posted 2019-20. The Attendance numbers are for 2022. The Wall Street Journal Football Valuations and Basketball Valuations are those reported for 2018 (football) and 2019 (basketball). While none of this is designed to absolutely definitive and while some numbers seem somewhat dated it is due mostly to when they are compiled. New Revenue numbers from Equity in Athletics will be out sometime between late April and the end of June.
What this will illustrate in a very visible way is the chasm which has opened in all aspects between the Big 10 and SEC and the other three P conferences.
Gross Total Revenue By Conference Prior to the Additions: Then After the Additions:
SEC: $1,788,318,754 / $2,042,250,339
B1G: $1,394,540,630 / $1,627,015,417
B12: $917,407,366 / $933,443,951
ACC: $1,419,519,121** / $1,290,833,767**
PAC: $1,080,365,326 / $847,890,539
** The stats are from the year N.D. played as a full member in football so the second number for the ACC is what the numbers would have been without N.D. included as a total full member including football.
But these numbers really pop when you look at how the average payout per school changes:
Average Per Conference School Revenue Before / After Realignment:
SEC: $124,165,625 / $127,640,646
B1G: $99,610,045 / $101,688,464 ***
B12: $91,740,737 / $77,786,996
ACC: $94,634,608** / $92,202,412**
PAC: $90,030,444 / $84,789,054
** Average with Notre Dame Football / Average Without N.D. Football
*** Missed games for the Big 10 cost them ~20 million a game you may adjust in your head.
The Big 12 changes account for the additions of Brigham Young, Cincinnati, Central Florida, and Houston.
Attendance Averages By Conference Pre Realignment / After Realignment:
SEC: 76,543 / 78,480
B1G: 66,012 / 64,434
B12: 58,642 / 47,256
ACC: 48115 / 48,115
PAC: 44,367 / 42,632
The ACC numbers didn't change because nobody left and the attendance was not taken from the year Notre Dame participated fully.
Wall Street Journal Valuations / Total Conference Value: Before / After:
SEC: $8,579,258,011 / $10,714,809,442
B1G: $5,389,814,258 / $6,179,932,446
B12: $4,359,589,087 / $2,503,680,688
ACC: $3,642,719,826 / $3,642,719,826
PAC: $3,748,132,679 / $2,958,014,494
Notre Dame's value is $913,401,562 and is not included in ACC values.
Some takeaways from the numbers. The distinction between the SEC and Big 10 and the other 3 clearly became more distinct.
The ACC benefits by being the only conference among the three not to suffer another raid. Because they haven't, they are clearly third right now. That could be considered a desirable place except that the SEC and Big 10 are now desired destinations of all programs who wish to be considered elite.
If the ACC, Big 12 and PAC wanted to create a competitive third there is still a chance. All ACC properties would need to willingly stay. The best remaining of the PAC should be added to their number and Kansas, Oklahoma State, Texas Christian, and perhaps another B12 school or two should be looked at for value.
The PAC is crippled because there are no logical additions which can replace their lost value.
The Big 12 is stable because right now nobody is looking seriously at their value.
The ACC has the best pathway to remaining in contact with the SEC and Big 10, but they have to hold onto their brands to do it and what is offered elsewhere remains a compelling enticement. North Carolina, Florida State, Clemson, Miami, Virginia Tech, Virginia, and Duke all remain with options in one or both of the SEC and Big 10. Georgia Tech and N.C. State could be appealing in the right combination. Louisville should by all rights be viable because of their value added for all sports. But they aren't AAU and are in a small to average sized state which the SEC already carries with Kentucky. The best value the Big 12 could add, and aside from Kansas it would shoot to the top of that conference, is Louisville.
I don't intend for this to offer any answers for how things should go. But it should make it clear how much pull the SEC and Big 10 now have, and it is only growing stronger. Exactly like Swarbrick said it would.
(This post was last modified: 03-10-2023 08:31 PM by JRsec.)
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Sometimes You Just Need To See What Happened: Current Realignment Visualized
