RE: MBB and WBB Postmortem (and Offseason Thread)
Still holding out hope that Edmonds adds another transfer, though the prospects look dim. More I look at the roster, more it feels like something is missing. It feels as if Edmonds went about the offseason as if she was in Pera's shoes, needing to replace the production of only one player. When you're replacing your three go-to scorers from an okay/good team, you kind of need to make a splash. I'm just not seeing it. Lot is going to depend on the development of last year's freshman class. Onto the men...
Big year ahead for Pera. With JK gone and a new guy coming in, and the transition to the American, I’d be shocked if an average year results in anything other than Pera being shown the door. Basic summary: like with the women, it’s an interesting roster. You look at it and see potential but also think that the offseason could’ve been just a bit better. On paper, with the number of question marks, I’m not convinced it’s enough to save Pera’s jobs. Feels a bit like one of those game shows with closed doors. It’s very possible that what’s behind the closed doors is underwhelming. But it’s also possible we might find a car.
Let’s start with the ever-present monster under the bed: defense. I don’t need to go into the numbers, because there are hundreds of posts detailing just how little improvement there’s been under Pera. Part of that is bad coaching, part of that is bad roster construction. Luckily, this year’s roster, at least on paper, is an improvement on past ones. But there are still plenty of flaws, which I’ll get into.
It’s a lot harder to break down the men’s team because positional roles mean less under Pera than some other coaches. But let’s start at the point guard. Like last year, have to imagine it’ll be Evee and Mason who have the ball in their hands the most (outside of Fiedler). Neither one is a true point guard, but they both have their virtues. Mason will be vital to the team this year. He passed the eye test with flying colors last year, but the numbers *hated* him. Most of that was down to defensive woes — we were bang average defensively with him off the court but only 8th percentile in defensive rating when he played. That’s not all that surprising for a freshman. And some of the additions this offseason should help hide him a bit on that end. But he has all the potential to become a guy who can average close to 20 a game. Just needs a bit more consistency shooting it and handling it. I don’t love Evee as *the* guy with the ball in his hands, but he’s effective off screens and we know how reliant Pera’s offense is on ball screens. Like with last year, Evee is going to need to make perimeter shots. Simple as that.
One of the big questions is what Pera does with Dawes, assuming he’s ready for minutes immediately (unknown at this point). I’m not sure Dawes has a nailed down position at the college level. He handled the ball in HS a bit as a point forward, but I can’t imagine a 6-9 freshman is going to be handed the keys to the team (and if he is, then we should be excited). He’s not going to be a spot up shooter, even if he can make shots. I didn’t see much of him in the post in his HS tape, but he’s big enough to play as a stretch 4. It’s also very possible that he’s not ready for minutes. His competition in HS was not great and he got away with a lot defensively just by being big. But on the flip side, if he’s a 20+ minute guy immediately, that raises our ceiling considerably.
Moving on to guard and wing play. Olivari is obviously the big loss. For his flaws, he was a flamethrower when hot and you don’t luck into his scoring averages. He was also a plus-plus rebounder for his position. Shelby is an unknown quantity but has the profile to replace some of Olivari’s production. He’s a deadeye shooter who saw the court in his freshman year for a decent Vanderbilt team, even if he eventually fell out of favor. Sheffield is also going to need to pick up some of the slack. He looked so much more comfortable putting the ball on the floor this year. But his shooting was streaky. Some consistency and another step handling the ball and he can average 10 PPG. Huseinovic, not much to talk about. His shooting is going to be even more important, but I haven’t quite seen the offensive package to consider him anything other than a needed jolt off the bench.
Selden and Alajiki are the two big offseason adds in my mind. Both bring good size at the wing position and both, I believe, have solid reputations as defenders. And since our paint defense is necessarily going to be bad, we need to have better point-of-attack defenders. Sheffield has been maybe our only decent guard/wing defender for the past few years. And I don’t know if that’s down to him being good defensively or just being average on a bad defensive team. Either way, Selden and Alajiki should bring immediate improvement. I vaguely recall Warren also getting plaudits in HS for his defensive work. But he played sparingly his senior season because of administrative stuff, which means he’s behind most 2023 recruits on the curve. Anybody’s guess whether he’s ready for minutes. The unknown for Selden and Alajiki is what they contribute offensively. Both strike me as “can kind of do a bit of everything, but nothing super well” type players. Alajiki was the better 3PT shooter and was consistently up against better opposition, but was not at all efficient. Selden saw more of the ball and strikes me as more confident with the ball in his hands. Both have big bodies, and I think I’ve seen clips of both backing down smaller defenders, something we could really use. The downside is that neither is really the explosive guard that you could argue we need. Outside of Mason and Evee occasionally, we’re still going to be heavily reliant on looks generated by screens, cuts, and movement. That has worked for other teams. But it’s limited our potential against certain teams basically every year.
No clue what to expect from Perkins. He’s a walk-on who isn’t really a walk-on. Getting offers from Maryland, Va Tech, and VCU, even if they were soft offers, is nothing to scoff at. Easy to be tempted by his build and profile. And it’s highly unlikely that the staff would have redshirted him if they didn’t see any potential. Bonus if he’s a contributor, especially on the defensive end. Wagner was a late add. I know very little about him. For the staff’s sake, I hope he contributes at some point. If not, it strikes me as a missed opportunity for a team that can’t really afford those.
Then we get to the bigs. Fiedler is the centerpiece, for better or worse. One of the more fascinating mid-major players in the country. Might be the best passing big man in the NCAA. We basically can’t score when he’s not on the floor. And yet he’s arguably one of the worst defensive bigs in the country and our defensive rating with him in the game is bottom 10%. In other words, we can’t sit him or we can’t score and we can’t play him or we can’t defend. Of course, there’s nuance to all of this. With better guard and wing defenders, which we should have, Fiedler’s deficiencies will be lessened. Will he still be a liability? Yes, almost certainly. But he’ll be less of a liability. And he’s going to play and dictate our offense for 30 minutes a game, so it’s not even worth considering the alternative. Akuchie showed flashes of promise last year. But for some reason I thought he was bigger coming out of HS. And he didn’t blow me away guarding the rim last year. Still, I think he’ll be a serviceable backup. And if he develops his shot and post game a bit more, he can be a starter in the long run. Ufochukwu was understandably very raw last year and saw only garbage time minutes. He’s the big on the roster with the elite defensive tools. Just a question of whether he’s got enough else to get on the court.
Verdict? Who knows, really. Decent roster. Doesn’t look worse than last year’s. Should be fun following preseason to see who’s standing out. But better competition this season and a razor thin margin.
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