Quote:As China and Russia begin moving toward a closer relationship, American military and foreign policy experts have been keeping a watchful eye on Taiwan, likely the next staging area for a violent “reclamation” by a foreign power.

The Ukraine War has left Russia exposed, with its military resources being drained and its soldiers dying at a far higher rate than would have been expected before the war started just over a year ago. However, a new partnership with China could tip the scales back in Russia’s favor.

At the same time, we know that China was originally upset with Russia for their invasion of Ukraine, because it came at a time when China was also looking at invading Taiwan. There were reports early in the Ukraine War that China believed the Russian invasion put the world on higher alert, making a Taiwan invasion much more difficult to pull off.

However, China has seemingly reconciled, and is once again looking at Taiwan with interest.

Recently, it was reported that the U.S. was increasing its presence in Taiwan through long-planned efforts meant to train Taiwanese forces.

The U.S. plans to deploy between 100 and 200 troops to the island in the coming months, up from roughly 30 there a year ago, according to U.S. officials. The larger force will expand a training program the Pentagon has taken pains not to publicize as the U.S. works to provide Taipei with the capabilities it needs to defend itself without provoking Beijing.

The number of American troops, which has included special-operations forces and U.S. Marines, has fluctuated by a handful during the past few years, according to Defense Department data. The planned increase would be the largest deployment of forces in decades by the U.S. on Taiwan, as the two draw closer to counter China’s growing military power.

Beyond training on Taiwan, the Michigan National Guard is also training a contingent of the Taiwanese military, including during annual exercises with multiple countries at Camp Grayling in northern Michigan, according to people familiar with the training.

However, there is new information out there – China is building up its military spending, which could be a sign that an invasion is coming.

The Chinese government will boost its military spending by 7.2% this year, rising to a total budget of 1.56 trillion Yuan.

In U.S. dollars, China’s budget now sits at $230 billion, up nearly $16 billion from its budget in 2022. China’s Ministry of Finance announced the new infusion of cash in its annual report on Sunday. The spending increase comes as the U.S. warns of a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan in the near future. U.S. officials have also warned China against sending lethal aid to support Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

This isn’t a guaranteed sign of armed conflict, but it is coming at a time when tensions between China and the U.S. are at an all-time high.

Tensions have been on the rise since August 2022, when then-Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited the self-governed island of Taiwan. China was outraged at the move. More recently, the Chinese government has been caught sending likely spy balloons to the U.S., brazenly flying them over the American mainland.

The Chinese have long-opposed western influence in the country, as has Russia. The two powers working together is a clear sign that they want to force western influence out of their collective sphere of the world, and the Chinese have long-maintained a claim over Taiwan (we’re talking decades unless you want to go back to before the First Sino-Japanese War, but that’s a historical argument for another day).

Still, an invasion is not a guarantee right now. The Chinese are on high alert, and while it seems that cooperation between the U.S. and China is something neither side wants, the Chinese know that a direct confrontation with America is not an ideal outcome.

Link

Honestly, 1000 or so hair trigger troops there would probably go a long way toward heading off any Ukraine like "surprise attack". That would elevate the chances of direct US involvement from unknown to almost 100% certainty. Given that calculus----whats the point of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan? It would be impossible to take the island without taking massive losses and causing the complete destruction of the economic prize. Im not crazy about the idea of more US troops in harms way---and the Chinese will absolutely despise the idea----but I do think it would probably end any actual conflict there before it ever even starts. Frankly, I think the only way there will be peace for Taiwan is if they develop a nuke. Without it, China will always believe its possible to reclaim it----but if Taiwan has nukes---then China will have to realize the existence of an independent nation of Taiwan is a simple long term reality and not some temporary condition that can simply bulldoze away through the use of force.

They ramped up their economy and construction too. How many empty/unfinished buildings do they now have? What did we end up learning about Russia after the USSR collapsed? You think the CCP is going to be any different?

(03-05-2023 08:13 PM)Mr_XcentricK Wrote:  They ramped up their economy and construction too. How many empty/unfinished buildings do they now have? What did we end up learning about Russia after the USSR collapsed? You think the CCP is going to be any different?

Not to mention those empty cities are crumbling poorly built total garbage. I have no idea how good the Chinese military equipment really is---but I know most of their aircraft are based on Russian designs or stuff they were able to steal and copy. It wont surprise me if a lot of their stuff is not nearly as good as we think.

Years ago the Russians introduced the Mig-25 Foxbat. It was the fastest military aircraft in the world and it was widely believed to horribly outclass anything the US had. Massive pressure was placed on the American defense industry to build something that could at least somewhat compete with the Mig-25. In the end, intelligence believed what ended up being the F-15 was going to be reasonably adequate---but no better than the second best fighter in the world behind the mighty Mig-25. It wasnt until a defector landed a Mig-25 in Japan that the West found out that the Mig-25 wasnt nearly as capable as intelligence believed and that their own F-15 was actually the best air superiority fighter in the world by a fairly large margin.

(03-05-2023 08:33 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(03-05-2023 08:13 PM)Mr_XcentricK Wrote:  They ramped up their economy and construction too. How many empty/unfinished buildings do they now have? What did we end up learning about Russia after the USSR collapsed? You think the CCP is going to be any different?

Not to mention those empty cities are crumbling poorly built total garbage. I have no idea how well the Chinese military equipment really is---but I know most of their aircraft are based on Russian designs or stuff they were able to steal and copy. It wont surprise me if a lot of their stuff is not nearly as good as we think.

Years ago the Russians introduced the Mig-25 Foxbat. It was the fastest military aircraft in the world and it was widely believed to horribly outclass anything the US had. Massive pressure was placed on the American defense industry to build something that could at least somewhat compete with the Mig-25. In the end, intelligence believed what ended up being the F-15 was going to be reasonably adequate---but no better than the second best fighter in the world behind the mighty Mig-25. It wasnt until a defector landed a Mig-25 in Japan that the West found out that the Mig-25 wasnt nearly as capable as intelligence believed and that their own F-15 was actually the best air superiority fighter in the world by a fairly large margin.

Exactly. In authoritarian regimes nobody wants to tell their boss that things are not going well. And it just moves up the chain. Add that to the Chinese cultural tradition of not saying no or “saving face”.

20 years ago I lived in China for a year as part of a Univ of Memphis internship program. And have to say that when you asked for something, being lied to instead of an outright “no” was frustrating.

What are those carriers that brought soldiers to the sands of Iwo Jima and the Normandy invasion called? LSTs? Well, when we see China mass building them then we can be sure of an invasion. Sure, they can lob all kinds of missiles and fly all kinds of aircraft into Taiwan but Taiwan can reciprocate but an invasion demands troops on the ground and the Chinese military is not capable of swimming the vast sea that separates them. They need landing ships and as far as we know they don't have them...yet.

When they do, then prepare for war.

They may be doing a lend-lease style program with Russia. Backed by Russian oil.
Keep things busy in Ukraine long enough for us to use all our treasure and thereby severely damaging the US economy. (and ensure the DNC is swimming in dark money.)
This could make sure that he US dollar is no longer the worlds reserve currency.
Thereby damaging their #1 commercial and military enemy for a long time. Enough time to invade, and hold Formosa perhaps???

Quote:we know that China was originally upset with Russia for their invasion of Ukraine, because it came at a time when China was also looking at invading Taiwan. There were reports early in the Ukraine War that China believed the Russian invasion put the world on higher alert, making a Taiwan invasion much more difficult to pull off.

I believe Russia kept PRC fully in the loop on the Ukraine invasion, and that PRC probably gave consent/approval of the whole thing.

I think Russia's invasion of Ukraine may have served China's purposes in one way, that being to provide an indicator of how world opinion would view invasions of neighboring countries.