RE: Kent State vs. Akron
I do want to say one more thing about the head scratching 3 point foul call because it hasn't been sitting well with me. So the shot went up, missed, was rebounded, then the foul was called. Because it came so late they had to go to the monitor to figure out how much time to add back. The review took longer than you'd expect, probably because they were having a hard time figuring out when the foul occured since there was no contact (which of course makes it weirder that the ref who called it wasn't consulted at the monitor). Had the call not been made, Kent likely gets fouled and has two free throws to try to push it out to a 5 point lead with somewhere around 1 or 2 seconds left.
Maybe I'm just getting cynical with age, or maybe being a baseball fan through the steroid era, Astros, then the sticky stuff has made me that way... But anymore when I'm watching sports I constantly have the question in the back of my head "Is what I'm watching actually legitimate?". Now with sports gambling being so big, it's made it impossible for everyone to not be aware of the spread... Which in this case was Kent by 4.5. So if that whistle doesn't happen we likely have 2 free throws to decide if we cover. Since the call was so inexplicably it's hard to not raise an eyebrow at that. Then the same guy immediately hits Sendy with a tech after the buzzer meaning Kent has to outscore Akron by 7 in OT to cover (we did).
I decided to dig through the play logs of the last 10 minutes and OT tonight.
Over the course of the last 10 minutes, the average score diff was +3.1 Kent. The average score when Kent was called for a foul was +4.25 Kent. The average score when Akron was called for a foul was +2.67 Kent.
In OT the average diff was +2.1 Kent. The average score when Kent was called for a foul was +3.25 Kent. The average score when Akron was called for a foul was +2.0 Kent (+1.4 Kent if you take out the intentional take foul with us up 5 at the end).
So the picture here is pretty clear. For the last 15 minutes of the game, Kent fouls came when the lead was near the spread. Akron fouls came when Kent was further away from the spread. Over the last 15 minutes, only 1 of Kent's 8 fouls came when we were NOT within 2 points of covering. On the other hand, 5 of Akron's 9 fouls came when we were NOT within 2 points of covering (5 of 8 if you remove the intentional foul at the end).
Sure you could make the obvious statement that we ended up covering. We did get a foul call at 0:38 seconds to put us up 5. And Akron did not get a foul on their next possession. However, as I recall there was no possibility for them to because that possession was the one where Castaneda shot a three way off balance trying to jump into a guy but still didn't get near him. Calling that would've been more egregious than the one at the end of regulation. Also, with Kent up 6 we were called for a foul with 10 seconds left and had Akron not split the pair we wouldn't have covered. I can't remember that call at all, so I can't remember if it was a good call or not.
Anyways, I acknowledge this could be nothing. I could be reading too much into nothing. I should add I'm not a betting man and had no money on this game. I just find it impossible to not think about this stuff now, especially when I see something really hard to explain (like how a man who is paid money to officiate basketball calls that foul in that spot). The sad reality is s#it is definitely going to happen if it isn't already. There are 363 D1 basketball teams. No way they can closely police all the games. Hell, the NBA couldn't even keep a ref from fixing games. And at this level it's going to be much more possible because the refs and players make much less money, and there's little media coverage. Hell, look at the XFL. I watched the first game and was pretty surprised to see how poorly Paxton Lynch did against a bunch of defenders I'd never heard of. Then a week later we find out his backup gave the playbook to the other team. A couple months ago I had the idea of building an algorithm to look for red flags in play logs and come up with some sort of 'suspicion rating' for each game. I don't have time for that, but someone should definitely do it. That would be such an interesting website...until the NCAA pays you a bunch of money to shut it down haha.
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