After going 2-0 at home against WMU and Ball St EMU finds in itself in the middle of a MAC tourney spot and can help themselves this week. EMU is currently 5-11 in conference and 8-21 overall.

Bowling Green is 4-12 in conference and a game behind EMU and is on a 9 game losing streak. Overall they are 10-19. Starting lineup may look like this:

Leon Ayers III 6'5 Sr. 17 ppg
Samari Curtis 6'4 Sr. 12 ppg
Kaden Metheny 5'11 So. 11 ppg
Rashaun Agee 6'8 Jr. 10 ppg
Chandler Turner 6'7 Sr. 9 ppg

Top options off the bench appear to be Sam Towns 6'9 Jr. and Brenton Mills 6'3 Sr.

NIU is 8-8 in conference and 12-17 overall after beating CMU. Their starting lineup may look like this:

Keshawn Williams 6'3 Sr. 18 ppg
David Coit 5'11 So. 16ppg
Zarique Nutter 6'6 So. 12 ppg
Darweshi Hunter 6'5 Sr. 9 ppg
Kaleb Thorton 6'0 Sr. 9 ppg

Sr. Anthony Crump 6'8 appears to be the first option off the bench.

BG killed us last time but now on a 9-game losing streak. Anyone care to guess the point spread on this game.

This is a classic example where two bits of data, the score of the game at EMU BUT BG is now on an 9-game losing streak, point in the opposite directions.

I say: "Go with a team playing well trying to make the playoffs." I don't think home court means anything for a team on a 9-game losing streak.

Question and I haven't thought it thru: Has BG given up? Do they have a reasonable chance of making the tourney?

EDIT: BG has a fairly slim chance. Believe they need to beat us AND Ohio to get to 6 - 12 and probably tie with another team 6 - 12 who split games with BG. Any 5 - 7 team winning both games gets the 8th slot.
(OTOH, it might be possible for 4 teams to tie 6 - 12).

https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/standings

Both of these opponents smoked EMU in Ypsi. These games are a chance for retribution and that 8th spot in the tournament.

Win them both! That way we go into the tournament on a 4 game win streak.

Vannzee says:

https://twitter.com/thevannzee/status/16...71299?s=20

(02-26-2023 08:20 AM)TheWoodenNickle Wrote:  Both of these opponents smoked EMU in Ypsi. These games are a chance for retribution and that 8th spot in the tournament.

Win them both! That way we go into the tournament on a 4 game win streak.

All you want is to have control of your own destiny. Win win, and you're in, and heading to Cleveland!

(02-26-2023 08:20 AM)TheWoodenNickle Wrote:  Both of these opponents smoked EMU in Ypsi. These games are a chance for retribution and that 8th spot in the tournament.

Win them both! That way we go into the tournament on a 4 game win streak.

Strange: ESPN HAS Bg with a 75% win chance.

Big opportunity to bet on EMU.

https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basket.../401473603

BG has 5 or 6 really good three-point shooters. If EMU doesn't force them way out, get up in their grill and make them pass or dribble, BG will once again, shoot 10-25 on three's or 43 percent. That's what happened in the first game. It's all in how players are deployed. Playing off three-point shooters and close-out in my view are for losers.

Sorry to say but with advent of the three-point shot years ago, bb is a game of math.

To have any chance of winning, EMU must hold BG to taking less than 20 three's and making no more than 5 or 6 three's. Otherwise, EMU loses the game. There's other things EMU has to do as well to in order to have any chacnce of winning the game.

BG doesn't want to be eliminated on their home-court, and they want to move ahead of EMU with one remaking game. For if they win both they have a chance to go to the MAC tournament.

(02-26-2023 09:34 AM)EMUGLORYDAYSthe90s Wrote:  

(02-26-2023 08:20 AM)TheWoodenNickle Wrote:  Both of these opponents smoked EMU in Ypsi. These games are a chance for retribution and that 8th spot in the tournament.

Win them both! That way we go into the tournament on a 4 game win streak.

All you want is to have control of your own destiny. Win win, and you're in, and heading to Cleveland!

I want EMU to not only get in the tournament but win at least 2 games in the tournament. To me, that's the only thing that will make this disappointing season palatable.

(02-26-2023 10:53 AM)TheWoodenNickle Wrote:  

(02-26-2023 09:34 AM)EMUGLORYDAYSthe90s Wrote:  

(02-26-2023 08:20 AM)TheWoodenNickle Wrote:  Both of these opponents smoked EMU in Ypsi. These games are a chance for retribution and that 8th spot in the tournament.

Win them both! That way we go into the tournament on a 4 game win streak.

All you want is to have control of your own destiny. Win win, and you're in, and heading to Cleveland!

I want EMU to not only get in the tournament but win at least 2 games in the tournament. To me, that's the only thing that will make this disappointing season palatable.

So true, but not attainable unless EMU applies a pressure half-court defense. The good thing is that BG has not be a particularly good defensive team either.

Remaining Schedules of those competing for the 8th seed. As others have pointed out, indeed EMU controls it’s own destiny. Of those currently tied for the 8th spot, EMU has a 2-0 tie breaking record, CMU 2-1, and Miami 0-3. If Bowling Green beats EMU, will significantly hurt EMU on both the overall record as well as the tiebreaker record.

EMU (5-11): @BGSU, @NIU

CMU (5-11): VsToledo, @WMU

Miami (5-11): @WMU, @Buffalo

BGSU (4-12): VsEMU, @Ohio

WMU (3-13): VsMiami, VsCMU

(02-26-2023 12:26 PM)RamyEMU Wrote:  Remaining Schedules of those competing for the 8th seed. As others have pointed out, indeed EMU controls it’s own destiny. Of those currently tied for the 8th spot, EMU has a 2-0 tie breaking record, CMU 2-1, and Miami 0-3. If Bowling Green beats EMU, will significantly hurt EMU on both the overall record as well as the tiebreaker record.

EMU (5-11): @BGSU, @NIU

CMU (5-11): VsToledo, @WMU

Miami (5-11): @WMU, @Buffalo

BGSU (4-12): VsEMU, @Ohio

WMU (3-13): VsMiami, VsCMU

Key games TUESDAY: IF EMU wins and TOL beats CMU. BG and CMU are out (I think). BG can't get to 6 wins and we hold the tie breaker over CMU if both are 6 - 12).

Then If Miami loses to UB, we're even even at 6 - 12 as we hold the tie breaker over Miami.

Anyone disagree???

(02-26-2023 10:53 AM)TheWoodenNickle Wrote:  

(02-26-2023 09:34 AM)EMUGLORYDAYSthe90s Wrote:  

(02-26-2023 08:20 AM)TheWoodenNickle Wrote:  Both of these opponents smoked EMU in Ypsi. These games are a chance for retribution and that 8th spot in the tournament.

Win them both! That way we go into the tournament on a 4 game win streak.

All you want is to have control of your own destiny. Win win, and you're in, and heading to Cleveland!

I want EMU to not only get in the tournament but win at least 2 games in the tournament. To me, that's the only thing that will make this disappointing season palatable.

I very much agree with Nickle here on ALL accounts. However, I assume I don’t share his optimism. True EMU is coming off a two game win streak, but struggled for both wins against last place WMU and against a Ball St team missing their best player in Peyton Sparks- both at home.

I feel like the team really peaked in a 4 game stretch: @Toledo 1/24 (lost 84-79), @Miami 1/28 (Won 74-69), VsOhio 1/31 (Won 90-79), and @Ball St 2/3 (lost OT 91-90). Then there was @Buffalo 2/7 (lost 102-97), which I did not see but posters on this board cited problems. They followed that with a solid game against Toledo 2/11 (lost 70-63). So maybe it was a 6 game stretch.

But after that were two complete blowout losses against Akron and Kent St and these recent two wins neither of which felt particularly impressive. I worry the positive momentum shift has already run it’s course for EMU rather then a team peaking now. We will have to wait and see- sorry if I am being too pessimistic. In any case… Go EMU!!

(02-26-2023 12:45 PM)emu steve Wrote:  

(02-26-2023 12:26 PM)RamyEMU Wrote:  Remaining Schedules of those competing for the 8th seed. As others have pointed out, indeed EMU controls it’s own destiny. Of those currently tied for the 8th spot, EMU has a 2-0 tie breaking record, CMU 2-1, and Miami 0-3. If Bowling Green beats EMU, will significantly hurt EMU on both the overall record as well as the tiebreaker record.

EMU (5-11): @BGSU, @NIU

CMU (5-11): VsToledo, @WMU

Miami (5-11): @WMU, @Buffalo

BGSU (4-12): VsEMU, @Ohio

WMU (3-13): VsMiami, VsCMU

Key games TUESDAY: IF EMU wins and TOL beats CMU. BG and CMU are out (I think). BG can't get to 6 wins and we hold the tie breaker over CMU if both are 6 - 12).

Then If Miami loses to UB, we're even even at 6 - 12 as we hold the tie breaker over Miami.

Anyone disagree???

The EMU-BowlingGreen game is indeed huge with regard to this 8th Seed. If EMU wins, then will eliminate both Bowling Green and WMU. However, don’t get too excited, I know BowlingGreen is on like a nine game losing streak BUT all of their games have been competitive (no blowouts). So BowlingGreen is well poised to break their losing streak at home against another struggling team such as EMU…just as EMU was poised to break their own losing streak at home against another struggling team such as WMU this week.

Miggy, I am glad you posted in the other thread that Noah is ok (was it a jaw injury?). Great news both for his well being! … as well as for the teams chances in this week’s games!

(02-26-2023 01:24 PM)RamyEMU Wrote:  Miggy, I am glad you posted in the other thread that Noah is ok (was it a jaw injury?). Great news both for his well being! … as well as for the teams chances in this week’s games!

I'm not sure of Noah's exact injury, but I do know he's s ok to play..

(02-26-2023 01:04 PM)RamyEMU Wrote:  

(02-26-2023 10:53 AM)TheWoodenNickle Wrote:  

(02-26-2023 09:34 AM)EMUGLORYDAYSthe90s Wrote:  

(02-26-2023 08:20 AM)TheWoodenNickle Wrote:  Both of these opponents smoked EMU in Ypsi. These games are a chance for retribution and that 8th spot in the tournament.

Win them both! That way we go into the tournament on a 4 game win streak.

All you want is to have control of your own destiny. Win win, and you're in, and heading to Cleveland!

I want EMU to not only get in the tournament but win at least 2 games in the tournament. To me, that's the only thing that will make this disappointing season palatable.

I very much agree with Nickle here on ALL accounts. However, I assume I don’t share his optimism. True EMU is coming off a two game win streak, but struggled for both wins against last place WMU and against a Ball St team missing their best player in Peyton Sparks- both at home.

I feel like the team really peaked in a 4 game stretch: @Toledo 1/24 (lost 84-79), @Miami 1/28 (Won 74-69), VsOhio 1/31 (Won 90-79), and @Ball St 2/3 (lost OT 91-90). Then there was @Buffalo 2/7 (lost 102-97), which I did not see but posters on this board cited problems. They followed that with a solid game against Toledo 2/11 (lost 70-63). So maybe it was a 6 game stretch.

But after that were two complete blowout losses against Akron and Kent St and these recent two wins neither of which felt particularly impressive. I worry the positive momentum shift has already run it’s course for EMU rather then a team peaking now. We will have to wait and see- sorry if I am being too pessimistic. In any case… Go EMU!!

Ramy we are playing much better defense right now. Our early season "matador" defense allowed BG to score 48 points and NIU 40 in the Gervin paint on many uncontested dunks and layups. We are playing much better today even though we are still dead ass last statistically in the MAC.

Line : BGSU -4.0
O/U : 159

Take EMU and the under. 159 is a lot of points.

(02-26-2023 10:10 AM)Miggy Wrote:  BG has 5 or 6 really good three-point shooters. If EMU doesn't force them way out, get up in their grill and make them pass or dribble, BG will once again, shoot 10-25 on three's or 43 percent. That's what happened in the first game. It's all in how players are deployed. Playing off three-point shooters and close-out in my view are for losers.

Sorry to say but with advent of the three-point shot years ago, bb is a game of math.

To have any chance of winning, EMU must hold BG to taking less than 20 three's and making no more than 5 or 6 three's. Otherwise, EMU loses the game. There's other things EMU has to do as well to in order to have any chacnce of winning the game.

BG doesn't want to be eliminated on their home-court, and they want to move ahead of EMU with one remaking game. For if they win both they have a chance to go to the MAC tournament.

What Miggy says may or may not hold water but I have a completely different perspective....

Miggy posted about some BG played way back when... (January 3, almost 2 month ago). I say look at BG's most recent games:

I have never seen a team go thru such a tough meat grinder schedule: In their last 6 games Kent, BSU, CMU, TOL, MIA and Kent.

With BG teetering on the edge of elimination (I need to calculate if they can be eliminated even if they win both remaining games).

Anyway, when a team is on the verge of elimination and has gone through a meat grinder schedule, maybe tonight they come up flatter than a pancake.

I say to Miggy FORGET the first BG game. It is ancient history. This isn't the same BG team as back in January. Teams usually improve or regress as the season goes on.

P.S. to Miggy and this may be relevant here: Didn't we go to S. Carolina and play a very tough game and then come back a few days later and get smoked??? That stuff happens ALL the time. Toss out the first BG game. Meaningless.

I looked at the money line: EMU is 3:2. Bet $20 and win 30. (put down $20 and cash a bet returning $50. Your 20 bet plus a 30 buck win).

(02-26-2023 01:19 PM)RamyEMU Wrote:  

(02-26-2023 12:45 PM)emu steve Wrote:  

(02-26-2023 12:26 PM)RamyEMU Wrote:  Remaining Schedules of those competing for the 8th seed. As others have pointed out, indeed EMU controls it’s own destiny. Of those currently tied for the 8th spot, EMU has a 2-0 tie breaking record, CMU 2-1, and Miami 0-3. If Bowling Green beats EMU, will significantly hurt EMU on both the overall record as well as the tiebreaker record.

EMU (5-11): @BGSU, @NIU

CMU (5-11): VsToledo, @WMU

Miami (5-11): @WMU, @Buffalo

BGSU (4-12): VsEMU, @Ohio

WMU (3-13): VsMiami, VsCMU

Key games TUESDAY: IF EMU wins and TOL beats CMU. BG and CMU are out (I think). BG can't get to 6 wins and we hold the tie breaker over CMU if both are 6 - 12).

Then If Miami loses to UB, we're even even at 6 - 12 as we hold the tie breaker over Miami.

Anyone disagree???

The EMU-BowlingGreen game is indeed huge with regard to this 8th Seed. If EMU wins, then will eliminate both Bowling Green and WMU. However, don’t get too excited, I know BowlingGreen is on like a nine game losing streak BUT all of their games have been competitive (no blowouts). So BowlingGreen is well poised to break their losing streak at home against another struggling team such as EMU…just as EMU was poised to break their own losing streak at home against another struggling team such as WMU this week.

I just did a long post and mentioned Miggy. Should have added RamyEMU.

Miggy talked about a game Jan 3, almost 2 months ago.

RamyEMU and I are discussing what is the meaning of going through a scheduling gauntlet and a 'recency effect' (most recent games).

I predict BG will come out flat. I know the game is in BG. Senior night. But if you've been thru hell, you've been thru hell. BG has been through hoops hell.

(02-27-2023 10:11 PM)emu steve Wrote:  Line : BGSU -4.0
O/U : 159

Take EMU and the under. 159 is a lot of points.

Take EMU here. Like printing money but legal.