It’s already late February and I really doubt at this late stage a new suitor would show up. In other words, the Pac schools should know all of their media options by now. So what’s the holdup?

These are some possibilities I can think of:

1. Different schools prefer different media options. Maybe some schools are OK with 100% streaming but others are not.

2. UO and UW want an unequal revenue sharing before signing any media deal. This is possible but I guess they can fight over the unequal revenue sharing after the media deal.

3. UO and UW wait for a new B10 commissioner, hoping the new person may push for a further expansion. I doubt this is the case and we don’t even know when the new commissioner would start.

4 UO, Stanford, and UW wait for ND decision. This is very unlikely but if ND decides to join the B10, at least one school from Pac will be tagged along.

5. UO, UW and four corner schools are negotiating with B12 for a better term. Given B12’s interest, I don’t think the negotiation (if any) should take this long.

6. UO and UW and potentially some other schools are waiting for ACC’s invitation. I don’t think the ACC made up its mind yet.

7. Pac 12 schools are praying that a new suitor may magically show up or ESPN suddenly and inexplicably increase the offer.

Is there any other possibility? Until the Pac signs a media deal, wild speculations will continue.

These things take time...and I was told that media companies don't really do deals in the first month or two of the year. This probably explains why ESPN hasn't talked to the PAC 12 in weeks.

Deadlines make deals. They still have a lot of time.

We have zero visibility into the process so trying to place external deadlines onto private internal affairs doesn’t make sense. I bet if they are juggling between ESPN, Amazon and even Apple that is a ton of negotiations that has to happen to appease all partners. It’s the off-season so everyone is bored and antsy for news here but I’m sure those in the know have their own roadmap and expectations that is divorced from what the public is wanting.

(02-23-2023 01:38 PM)random asian guy Wrote:  It’s already late February and I really doubt at this late stage a new suitor would show up. In other words, the Pac schools should know all of their media options by now. So what’s the holdup?

These are some possibilities I can think of:
...

Is there any other possibility? Until the Pac signs a media deal, wild speculations will continue.

There's no very good option on the table, so all of your choices have downsides.

This is sort of close to your #7, PAC-12 schools are praying for ESPN to offer more money, or a new player to enter the game.

The PAC 12 will wait it out. They sure as hell will never join the Big 12 like a lot of people think.

April is the deadline

Does the PAC have that many viewers to command a good deal? I never watch the PAC in anything because of the time zone issue. And the PAC is rarely good like the more eastern conferences so the games aren't as entertaining.

(02-23-2023 01:38 PM)random asian guy Wrote:  It’s already late February and I really doubt at this late stage a new suitor would show up. In other words, the Pac schools should know all of their media options by now. So what’s the holdup?

These are some possibilities I can think of:

1. Different schools prefer different media options. Maybe some schools are OK with 100% streaming but others are not.

2. UO and UW want an unequal revenue sharing before signing any media deal. This is possible but I guess they can fight over the unequal revenue sharing after the media deal.

3. UO and UW wait for a new B10 commissioner, hoping the new person may push for a further expansion. I doubt this is the case and we don’t even know when the new commissioner would start.

4 UO, Stanford, and UW wait for ND decision. This is very unlikely but if ND decides to join the B10, at least one school from Pac will be tagged along.

5. UO, UW and four corner schools are negotiating with B12 for a better term. Given B12’s interest, I don’t think the negotiation (if any) should take this long.

6. UO and UW and potentially some other schools are waiting for ACC’s invitation. I don’t think the ACC made up its mind yet.

7. Pac 12 schools are praying that a new suitor may magically show up or ESPN suddenly and inexplicably increase the offer.

Is there any other possibility? Until the Pac signs a media deal, wild speculations will continue.

Oregon and Washington hoping for a Big 10 offer is my main theory.

If those theories that the Big 10 won't be willing to invite Oregon and Washington until after the Four Corners bolt for the Big 12 are correct (because the Big Ten is afraid of bad public relations from destroying the PAC-12), then Oregon and Washington seriously have a bizarre motivation to deliberately wreck the PAC-12's TV contract negotiations. They have more tools at their disposal to do this than you might think, such as possibly both refusing to sign a GOR and agree to equal revenue sharing. It also wouldn't surprise me if Oregon and Washington were the parties who suggested Apple TV as a partner, with the deliberate goal of pissing off the Four Corners.

(02-23-2023 02:43 PM)Curtisc83 Wrote:  Does the PAC have that many viewers to command a good deal? I never watch the PAC in anything because of the time zone issue. And the PAC is rarely good like the more eastern conferences so the games aren't as entertaining.

They don’t have what their shills say they have. Look at the affinity maps related to Twitter and look at the Central Valley and the Central Coast. Cal and Stanford are non-entities.

Fresno has all of San Joaquin County, Sac State has Sacramento. Now granted the sample sizes are not super significant but it does indicate how confined to the Bay Area Cal and Stanford are.


https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/m...ootballMap

Can't announce a media deal until the conference knows what teams are in (what the media is paying for). Teams won't commit until they know the media deal. Catch 22 slowing things down.

It takes time. Kliavkoff first has to present his best media deal to the 10 remaining conference members.

If the media deal payout is larger per school and gets as much exposure as the Big12 there could be a consensus for the 10 schools to sign a short term Grant of Rights contract.

If not, the four corners schools will bolt for Big12 while at least two other members leave. Oregon and Washington may accept reduced payout in BIG10, or they could move with Stanford and Cal to the ACC. Either way, the PAC would no longer be a recognized NCAA conference of five schools that have spent a minimum of three years togther. There would be no exit fees and all accumulated Basketball Tourney earnings (which the NCAA banks for 4 years) will be sent directly to the schools that earned it.

OSU and WSU could be left owning a bankrupt conference with no media deal, no bowl tie-ins, and no auto-bid to the Big Dance. Their best move would then be to join the Mountain West along with tagalongs SDSU and SMU. The MWC could then rebrand itself as the PAC and everyone would be happy.

Kliakov is like Jordan Peele in the French Restaurant skit.

Talks a great game until it's time to deliver.

https://youtu.be/0BzGlfm1wFo

The issue is that Oregon and Washington do not want a deal that has Streaming as Tier 1. Current deal is Amazon or Apple as Tier 1 and ESPN as Tier 2.

ESPN will not even pay more than 100M per year.

Basically one theory is that Oregon and Washington are stalling until the spring (thats when the BIG10 is suppose to have a new commish) and are hoping for a BIG10 invite. If that doesn’t come they have a invite to the Big12. The question becomes is it better to stay j the Pac12 or join the BIg12. It is going to be interesting.

Apparently some ACC schools are just now realizing this could be them in ten years and maybe they should consider so proactive measures.

(02-23-2023 03:23 PM)Adler Wrote:  It takes time. Kliavkoff first has to present his best media deal to the 10 remaining conference members.

If the media deal payout is larger per school and gets as much exposure as the Big12 there could be a consensus for the 10 schools to sign a short term Grant of Rights contract.

If not, the four corners schools will bolt for Big12 while at least two other members leave. Oregon and Washington may accept reduced payout in BIG10, or they could move with Stanford and Cal to the ACC. Either way, the PAC would no longer be a recognized NCAA conference of five schools that have spent a minimum of three years togther. There would be no exit fees and all accumulated Basketball Tourney earnings (which the NCAA banks for 4 years) will be sent directly to the schools that earned it.

OSU and WSU could be left owning a bankrupt conference with no media deal, no bowl tie-ins, and no auto-bid to the Big Dance. Their best move would then be to join the Mountain West along with tagalongs SDSU and SMU. The MWC could then rebrand itself as the PAC and everyone would be happy.

One problem. The expanded MWC / "PAC" will not earn anywhere near the numbers the other 'power' conferences are getting. Nor will they have a guaranteed playoff berth.

(02-23-2023 04:22 PM)jdgaucho Wrote:  

(02-23-2023 03:23 PM)Adler Wrote:  It takes time. Kliavkoff first has to present his best media deal to the 10 remaining conference members.

If the media deal payout is larger per school and gets as much exposure as the Big12 there could be a consensus for the 10 schools to sign a short term Grant of Rights contract.

If not, the four corners schools will bolt for Big12 while at least two other members leave. Oregon and Washington may accept reduced payout in BIG10, or they could move with Stanford and Cal to the ACC. Either way, the PAC would no longer be a recognized NCAA conference of five schools that have spent a minimum of three years togther. There would be no exit fees and all accumulated Basketball Tourney earnings (which the NCAA banks for 4 years) will be sent directly to the schools that earned it.

OSU and WSU could be left owning a bankrupt conference with no media deal, no bowl tie-ins, and no auto-bid to the Big Dance. Their best move would then be to join the Mountain West along with tagalongs SDSU and SMU. The MWC could then rebrand itself as the PAC and everyone would be happy.

One problem. The expanded MWC / "PAC" will not earn anywhere near the numbers the other 'power' conferences are getting. Nor will they have a guaranteed playoff berth.

No conference has a guaranteed play-off birth. But if the PAC-12 dies a reasonable chance exists the merged PAC/MWC will be a top 6 conference.

(02-23-2023 04:22 PM)jdgaucho Wrote:  

(02-23-2023 03:23 PM)Adler Wrote:  It takes time. Kliavkoff first has to present his best media deal to the 10 remaining conference members.

If the media deal payout is larger per school and gets as much exposure as the Big12 there could be a consensus for the 10 schools to sign a short term Grant of Rights contract.

If not, the four corners schools will bolt for Big12 while at least two other members leave. Oregon and Washington may accept reduced payout in BIG10, or they could move with Stanford and Cal to the ACC. Either way, the PAC would no longer be a recognized NCAA conference of five schools that have spent a minimum of three years togther. There would be no exit fees and all accumulated Basketball Tourney earnings (which the NCAA banks for 4 years) will be sent directly to the schools that earned it.

OSU and WSU could be left owning a bankrupt conference with no media deal, no bowl tie-ins, and no auto-bid to the Big Dance. Their best move would then be to join the Mountain West along with tagalongs SDSU and SMU. The MWC could then rebrand itself as the PAC and everyone would be happy.

One problem. The expanded MWC / "PAC" will not earn anywhere near the numbers the other 'power' conferences are getting. Nor will they have a guaranteed playoff berth.

No, they will have a guaranteed playoff berth if they are the MWC and just rename themselves as the "PAC". They can still make this work, it will just be the current MWC with OSU, WSU, and SMU and maybe NMSU/UTEP added. They may or may not be able to use the PAC name which will still be owned by the old PCC schools.

(02-23-2023 02:50 PM)Poster Wrote:  Oregon and Washington hoping for a Big 10 offer is my main theory.

If those theories that the Big 10 won't be willing to invite Oregon and Washington until after the Four Corners bolt for the Big 12 are correct (because the Big Ten is afraid of bad public relations from destroying the PAC-12), then Oregon and Washington seriously have a bizarre motivation to deliberately wreck the PAC-12's TV contract negotiations. They have more tools at their disposal to do this than you might think, such as possibly both refusing to sign a GOR and agree to equal revenue sharing. It also wouldn't surprise me if Oregon and Washington were the parties who suggested Apple TV as a partner, with the deliberate goal of pissing off the Four Corners.

At least three will refuse to sign the GOR, and at least six will cooperate to leave at the same time. The PAC will then be technically insolvent by NCAA bylaws (less than 5 schools together for less than 3 years) and there could not be exit fees. All accrued PAC finances (bowl payouts and tourney winnings) will be distributed directly to the schools that earned them.

What many don't realize is that Oregon and Washington could join the BIG10 at 50% payout for three years and still make more than what the PAC deal is reportedly offering. Then, they're golden after that as full members in their dream league.
It's almost the same for the "four corners schools". They can make more from the BIG12, have much better national exposure, avoid all PAC exit fees, and Arizona can claim their massive tourney winnings.

today's The Monty Show:

Oregon & Washington Are Bailing Out Of The PAC 12!


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aGBQa4PZ1_Q[/url]

https://www.oregonlive.com/ducks/2022/11...nment.html