I don’t think anyone in our conference has earned an at large bid to the NCAA Tournament, but what about the NIT?

Do you think any of the SBC teams have earned an At Large bid to the NIT?

Since we've been bad this year I haven't really kept up. I just want to say that we got screwed out of beating UNT in the first round of the NIT last year though. IIRC even the CUSA board mostly agreed, outside of that Side show bob guy that is.

The NIT invitations are usually a crapshoot. Until the conference tournament is over, there really isn't any way of seeing who is a lock either.

You would think Marshall, So Miss, JMU, and Louisiana are all at least “on the bubble” for an at large bid to the NIT depending on how the SBC tournament goes.

(02-23-2023 11:24 AM)herdfan129 Wrote:  You would think Marshall, So Miss, JMU, and Louisiana are all at least “on the bubble” for an at large bid to the NIT depending on how the SBC tournament goes.

Southern Miss and Marshall are definitely on the bubble currently. Louisiana and JMU are probably not quite high enough in the NET.

Let's analyze the recent history to answer this question. Below are the lowest ranked NIT at large bids, their seed on the left, and their final NET in parentheses.

5 Oregon (NET 76)
5 Santa Clara (NET 70)
5 St Bonaventure (NET 75)
5 Belmont (NET 79)
6 Virginia (NET 68)
8 Missouri State (NET 72)


Current NET as of 2-23
73 Marshall
83 Southern Miss
93 JMU
96 Louisiana

(02-23-2023 11:46 AM)rileylives Wrote:  Let's analyze the recent history to answer this question. Below are the lowest ranked NIT at large bids, their seed on the left, and their final NET in parentheses.

5 Oregon (NET 76)
5 Santa Clara (NET 70)
5 St Bonaventure (NET 75)
5 Belmont (NET 79)
6 Virginia (NET 68)
8 Missouri State (NET 72)


Current NET as of 2-23
73 Marshall
83 Southern Miss
93 JMU
96 Louisiana

This is good statistical data, Thank you.

(02-23-2023 11:46 AM)rileylives Wrote:  Let's analyze the recent history to answer this question. Below are the lowest ranked NIT at large bids, their seed on the left, and their final NET in parentheses.

5 Oregon (NET 76)
5 Santa Clara (NET 70)
5 St Bonaventure (NET 75)
5 Belmont (NET 79)
6 Virginia (NET 68)
8 Missouri State (NET 72)


Current NET as of 2-23
73 Marshall
83 Southern Miss
93 JMU
96 Louisiana

Excellent info. Thank you!

We need the conference champs of the other 1 bid conferences to win their conference tournaments and open up more at large bids

If Marshall and USM both make it to the tournament final, Id think the loser is a lock. I guess one of them would be a lock anyway if they don't win since one will be reg season champ. Louisiana will be on the bubble, but Im afraid the wrong side of it. JMU will be able to buy into a CIT or CBI if they want to.

Edit: looking at the NET scores, its better for the SB if USM wins the reg season, because neither they, nor Louisiana look to be in good shape for the NIT at larges. Marshall is the only one who might get the call. So better to have our autobid go to a team that probably wouldn't get it. That way if neither of those two win, we may get 2 teams in the NIT, and if Marshall or USM wins, we still get one team in the NIT.

One thing I will say... If Marshall, Southern Miss, or Louisiana get the auto-bid to the NCAA Tourney... I feel great putting them out there to rep the SBC.

Lots of pure talent, length, and athleticism on all three squads. Certainly enough to make some noise.

(02-23-2023 02:19 PM)CardinalBlackTrojan Wrote:  One thing I will say... If Marshall, Southern Miss, or Louisiana get the auto-bid to the NCAA Tourney... I feel great putting them out there to rep the SBC.

Lots of pure talent, length, and athleticism on all three squads. Certainly enough to make some noise.

I think JMU belongs on that list just as much as Louisiana, but I do think Southern Miss and especially Marshall are a notch above in terms of capability to win a game or two. Partly because of the makeup of Marshall's roster, partly because those two could get a slightly better seed.

(02-23-2023 03:57 PM)KickItToScotty Wrote:  

(02-23-2023 02:19 PM)CardinalBlackTrojan Wrote:  One thing I will say... If Marshall, Southern Miss, or Louisiana get the auto-bid to the NCAA Tourney... I feel great putting them out there to rep the SBC.

Lots of pure talent, length, and athleticism on all three squads. Certainly enough to make some noise.

I think JMU belongs on that list just as much as Louisiana, but I do think Southern Miss and especially Marshall are a notch above in terms of capability to win a game or two. Partly because of the makeup of Marshall's roster, partly because those two could get a slightly better seed.

I haven't watched JMU other than our game with y'all, which we lost. But I agree, USM and Marshall have the horses to make some noise if they play up to their potential.

Honestly, I didn't think we would have as good a season as we've had so far. I knew Jordan Brown would be a stud, but didn't see the surrounding cast to be a force to reckon with. Greg Williams has been a pleasant surprise compared to last year. Our PG, Fulks, has been better than expected. Kobe Julien is gonna play more in the tournament and could end up being the wildcard that helps us win it. He's finally playing stronger and faster, recovering from another leg injury last season.

We'll see how we do against the Jags Friday. Wish we didn't have BYU baseball game at the same time! We'll have more fans at that game than at the Dome on ESPN2.

(02-23-2023 01:54 PM)monarx Wrote:  Edit: looking at the NET scores, its better for the SB if USM wins the reg season, because neither they, nor Louisiana look to be in good shape for the NIT at larges. Marshall is the only one who might get the call. So better to have our autobid go to a team that probably wouldn't get it. That way if neither of those two win, we may get 2 teams in the NIT, and if Marshall or USM wins, we still get one team in the NIT.

The problem with that is the only way for USM to win the regular season is for Marshall to lose to ODU tomorrow, and USM was one spot higher in the NET than Marshall entering yesterday and fell into the 80's. A Marshall loss to ODU would likely do the exact same thing and kick them off that same bubble.

I think the maximum game theory for the SBC would have Marshall win the reg reason NIT bid and then have one of the other teams capable of winning an NCAA game win the tournament rather than Marshall.

(02-23-2023 01:54 PM)monarx Wrote:  If Marshall and USM both make it to the tournament final, Id think the loser is a lock. I guess one of them would be a lock anyway if they don't win since one will be reg season champ. Louisiana will be on the bubble, but Im afraid the wrong side of it. JMU will be able to buy into a CIT or CBI if they want to.

Edit: looking at the NET scores, its better for the SB if USM wins the reg season, because neither they, nor Louisiana look to be in good shape for the NIT at larges. Marshall is the only one who might get the call. So better to have our autobid go to a team that probably wouldn't get it. That way if neither of those two win, we may get 2 teams in the NIT, and if Marshall or USM wins, we still get one team in the NIT.

Quad 1 wins matter more than anything for at large bids. Both for the NIT and NCAA. USM might have 2 if Vanderbilt can keep the recent roll on.

The actual NET ranking matters little as teams 30 spots lower have frequently been taken more over teams 30 spots higher. In addition having zero quad 1 wins is generally a death sentence as the NCAA committee says that shows you can't beat any good teams.

Unless the NCAA changes how they have operated on this for over a decade. It will be the same this season.

My guess is that if USM and Marshall get to the final (assuming both win Friday), then there is a very outside chance at two bids IF ALL THE CHIPS FALL RIGHT. I'd give it about 4.7%. Most likely we get two in the NIT. I dont think that is too far a stretch again...IF things fall right. Now if we have a bajillion upsets during conference tourneys, then there goes those spots. But at this point in time, it IS still possible.

(02-23-2023 04:42 PM)Eagleyed Wrote:  

(02-23-2023 01:54 PM)monarx Wrote:  If Marshall and USM both make it to the tournament final, Id think the loser is a lock. I guess one of them would be a lock anyway if they don't win since one will be reg season champ. Louisiana will be on the bubble, but Im afraid the wrong side of it. JMU will be able to buy into a CIT or CBI if they want to.

Edit: looking at the NET scores, its better for the SB if USM wins the reg season, because neither they, nor Louisiana look to be in good shape for the NIT at larges. Marshall is the only one who might get the call. So better to have our autobid go to a team that probably wouldn't get it. That way if neither of those two win, we may get 2 teams in the NIT, and if Marshall or USM wins, we still get one team in the NIT.

Quad 1 wins matter more than anything for at large bids. Both for the NIT and NCAA. USM might have 2 if Vanderbilt can keep the recent roll on.

The actual NET ranking matters little as teams 30 spots lower have frequently been taken more over teams 30 spots higher. In addition having zero quad 1 wins is generally a death sentence as the NCAA committee says that shows you can't beat any good teams.

Unless the NCAA changes how they have operated on this for over a decade. It will be the same this season.

Which is ridiculous when most "Quad 1" teams refuse to play anyone other than themselves.

Marshall has three bad losses (ULM, GaSo, and Queens). The other three are to 20+win teams (UL, JMU, and UNC Greensboro). Problem is...we don't have any Q1 wins (Maybe USM?). And I think that will be a huge reason we don't get into the Dance if we don't win the SBC tournament. I give it barely a chance to begin with.

But I think that USM, Marshall, JMU, UL, and ODU could all make a great case for the NIT.

(02-24-2023 11:52 AM)monarx Wrote:  

(02-23-2023 04:42 PM)Eagleyed Wrote:  

(02-23-2023 01:54 PM)monarx Wrote:  If Marshall and USM both make it to the tournament final, Id think the loser is a lock. I guess one of them would be a lock anyway if they don't win since one will be reg season champ. Louisiana will be on the bubble, but Im afraid the wrong side of it. JMU will be able to buy into a CIT or CBI if they want to.

Edit: looking at the NET scores, its better for the SB if USM wins the reg season, because neither they, nor Louisiana look to be in good shape for the NIT at larges. Marshall is the only one who might get the call. So better to have our autobid go to a team that probably wouldn't get it. That way if neither of those two win, we may get 2 teams in the NIT, and if Marshall or USM wins, we still get one team in the NIT.

Quad 1 wins matter more than anything for at large bids. Both for the NIT and NCAA. USM might have 2 if Vanderbilt can keep the recent roll on.

The actual NET ranking matters little as teams 30 spots lower have frequently been taken more over teams 30 spots higher. In addition having zero quad 1 wins is generally a death sentence as the NCAA committee says that shows you can't beat any good teams.

Unless the NCAA changes how they have operated on this for over a decade. It will be the same this season.

Which is ridiculous when most "Quad 1" teams refuse to play anyone other than themselves.

USM showed the way this year. When we came into conference play we were a Quad 1 away game win. We played an easy schedule. It's that simple, beat up on bad teams. Don't do the USA route where they played a bunch of gurantee lose games. Losing by 1 to a good team doesn't help.

If multiple Sun Belt teams have a Quad 1 NET going into conference play then we can just win against each other. JMU has had a quad 1 win against Marshall for a while after all until Marshall just barely fell out of the top 25. USA plays an easier schedule, other teams like ULM don't lose all their out of conference games, you suddenly have multiple Sun Belt teams in the tourney.

Edit- Looking at the NET rankings today we are right back at multiple Sun Belt teams having quad 1 wins. ULM and JMU both have 1 due to beating Marshall @Marshall. It just shows how easy it can be if multiple Sun Belt teams get to being Quad 1 wins by playing easy schedules. Don't go playing @4 power schools grantee losses in 1 year and some teams improve just a little and we have it.

Part of the scenario no one is talking about is the number of auto NIT bids, which go to regular season champions who don't win the tournament. That could take up as much as half the field for the NIT.

Since the NCAA took over the NIT, there have been at-large bids for mid majors.

But they've been few and far between.

Marshall or USM would have a case for an at large, but I'd not be willing to put money on it.

Does anyone have a list of NIT at-large bids from last year? Would be neat to compare their NET/BPI/SOS vs the top of the current SBC's in discussion. As of right now, Southern Miss will either be in the NIT or the NCAA. I think if Southern Miss wins the SBC tourney, then you gotta have locks for Marshall and Louisiana, right? Not sure if the #'s are there...but it'd be really awesome if the SBC was able to send 3 teams to the NIT this year. That'd be HUGE for a conference not necessarily knownf or it's basketball and something to build on going into '23/24.