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(02-19-2023 02:52 PM)bearcatmark Wrote:  Time for me to offer some rare optimism regarding the rest of the season.

1. If vik can come back 100% his injury may end up helping this team in the aac tournament. His loss has killed our interior defense/ rebounding but ody and Kalu have gotten very comfortable in the pick and roll and finishing around the basket. That's a dimension we really were missing. It makes us so much more dynamic on offense.

2. There's still a good chance the game at Memphis is for the 3 seed in the conference tournament. Memphis is 3 games up but had has to play houston twice. Uc has two home games they should win. Today's win was really big

Memphis travels to Wichita next who is 7-4 since we beat them in January and is coming off a 14-point win at Temple.

If we beat them next weekend (big if) and gain a foothold on the 3 seed, the trajectory for the rest of the season takes a big shift.

Nice win for the Cats, but can we get a little smarter at the end of games. MAW with a foul with 6 seconds on the shot clock and then back to back TO. Glad they won, but it should not have come down to a last second shot.

(02-20-2023 07:43 AM)BrooklynRocket Wrote:  

(02-19-2023 02:52 PM)bearcatmark Wrote:  Time for me to offer some rare optimism regarding the rest of the season.

1. If vik can come back 100% his injury may end up helping this team in the aac tournament. His loss has killed our interior defense/ rebounding but ody and Kalu have gotten very comfortable in the pick and roll and finishing around the basket. That's a dimension we really were missing. It makes us so much more dynamic on offense.

2. There's still a good chance the game at Memphis is for the 3 seed in the conference tournament. Memphis is 3 games up but had has to play houston twice. Uc has two home games they should win. Today's win was really big

Memphis travels to Wichita next who is 7-4 since we beat them in January and is coming off a 14-point win at Temple.

If we beat them next weekend (big if) and gain a foothold on the 3 seed, the trajectory for the rest of the season takes a big shift.

Weirdly I don't think the Wichita game will matter in terms of whether UC gets the 3 seed or not. If we finished tied but Memphis beats Houston to end the season, they get the tiebreaker by virtue of going 1-1 against Houston.

If we finished tied by us beating them and them losing to Houston we get the 3 seed by virtue of going 1-1 against Tulane (both would be 0-2 against Houston, but they were swept by Tulane). Them losing to Wichita would just get rid of tiebreaker necessity in that situation.

Some love for JD on a day where he was 0-4 from 3. JD had maybe the two biggest plays of the game (other than the DDJ winner). UCF was chipping away at the least...3:25 left, MAW misses an open 3. JD reads the bounce on the miss, and goes up and gets the ball for a huge offensive rebound. That turned into a DDJ jumper to go back up 5.

UC up 3 with 1:52 left. Nolley bricks two free throws (I think his Free throw percentage has dropped by 12% the last 3 weeks). JD outfights the UCF guy for Position and gets the offensive rebound. That turned into an ODY dunk to go back up 5 with 1:20 to go. They needed every bit of that cushion after the late turnovers.

(02-20-2023 08:38 AM)bearcatmark Wrote:  Some love for JD on a day where he was 0-4 from 3. JD had maybe the two biggest plays of the game (other than the DDJ winner). UCF was chipping away at the least...3:25 left, MAW misses an open 3. JD reads the bounce on the miss, and goes up and gets the ball for a huge offensive rebound. That turned into a DDJ jumper to go back up 5.

UC up 3 with 1:52 left. Nolley bricks two free throws (I think his Free throw percentage has dropped by 12% the last 3 weeks). JD outfights the UCF guy for Position and gets the offensive rebound. That turned into an ODY dunk to go back up 5 with 1:20 to go. They needed every bit of that cushion after the late turnovers.

JD has been a positive factor down the stretch with key rebounding and some really tough defensive play.

I try to never read too much into a single loss and I'll try to not to do the same with a significant road win.

But as others pointed out, Vik's absence has created opportunity for UC's unheralded bigs and they're making the most of it. When Vik returns, this team could be playing its best basketball of the season at just the right time, with added depth we've all wanted to see down low.

(02-20-2023 08:56 AM)OKIcat Wrote:  

(02-20-2023 08:38 AM)bearcatmark Wrote:  Some love for JD on a day where he was 0-4 from 3. JD had maybe the two biggest plays of the game (other than the DDJ winner). UCF was chipping away at the least...3:25 left, MAW misses an open 3. JD reads the bounce on the miss, and goes up and gets the ball for a huge offensive rebound. That turned into a DDJ jumper to go back up 5.

UC up 3 with 1:52 left. Nolley bricks two free throws (I think his Free throw percentage has dropped by 12% the last 3 weeks). JD outfights the UCF guy for Position and gets the offensive rebound. That turned into an ODY dunk to go back up 5 with 1:20 to go. They needed every bit of that cushion after the late turnovers.

JD has been a positive factor down the stretch with key rebounding and some really tough defensive play.

I try to never read too much into a single loss and I'll try to not to do the same with a significant road win.

But as others pointed out, Vik's absence has created opportunity for UC's unheralded bigs and they're making the most of it. When Vik returns, this team could be playing its best basketball of the season at just the right time, with added depth we've all wanted to see down low.

Where the Vik loss really hurt them in the short term was:
1. Rim Protection (this really hurt at the end of games in particular)
2. Rebounding (though they did a good job against UCF)
3. Having a run stopper you can just throw the ball to to get a bucket.

But from an offensive production standpoint, Ody/Ezikpe have been just as productive as Vik in his absence (and that is saying a lot). Ody is finishing with authority. The things we heard about Ezikpe's polished offensive game have been realized.
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Blowing the Tulane/ECU games late hurts because UC would have many paths to the 2/3 seed. But it really has opened the door for them to be playing their best ball in the conference tournament. They are going to be more dynamic offensively, and more confident in using their bench guys. I'm excited for the rest of the season.

I watched on DVR last night. What a win!

I can't remember a UC player who consistently hit tough shots like DeJulius has this season. Incredible performance yesterday. Huge shots, got guys dunks, played inspired D, even had a few big rebounds late. Love that he has the ball in his hands more the second half of the season.

JD was once again very good at everything he had been so bad at early this year. Huge rebounds, played solid D against a match-up nightmare future first round pick, was pretty unselfish. If only his shot would return . . .

Ody and Ezikpe were both so solid on offense. Happy for them. MAW made some big plays too after a few rough games. And I thought Skillings played solid minutes.

Huge respect for Wes in this one. Yes, we almost blew it down the stretch again, but he brought this team together and came out with a great gameplan and got them to hustle and scrap and fight the whole game.

I've begged all year for rebounding and it was good to see it yesterday. Hopefully Wes will let all the bigs play, keep them all attacking the boards. They really could run pick and roll offense and win out. It's that simple, now if they get away from pick and roll offense they could lose every game. Attacking the boards could get them into the tourney. It's that simple beat teams inside.

(02-19-2023 02:15 PM)bearcatmark Wrote:  This team was beyond due to win one of those. Great road win!

I would say good not great. I know road wins have a much higher value than home wins. Maybe somebody can post it again. There were some data about beating a top 10 team at home is like beating a top 40 team on the road or something.

(02-20-2023 01:56 PM)ZCat Wrote:  

(02-19-2023 02:15 PM)bearcatmark Wrote:  This team was beyond due to win one of those. Great road win!

I would say good not great. I know road wins have a much higher value than home wins. Maybe somebody can post it again. There were some data about beating a top 10 team at home is like beating a top 40 team on the road or something.

That's about right. For example...here are two upcoming UCLA Games.

Home against Arizona (Kenpom 9) - They are 73% to win that game.
Road against Utah (kenpom 55) they are 70% to win that game.

So, UCLA is slightly more likely to beat #9 Arizona at home than #55 Utah on the road.

UCF is basically equal to Utah in predictive metrics (57 kenpom) so statistically that win is like beating Arizona at home.

(02-19-2023 07:11 PM)BearcatJerry Wrote:  

(02-19-2023 02:19 PM)BrooklynRocket Wrote:  Wes's 2nd Q1 win as a Bearcat. Long overdue.

Can I ask what relevance this statistic even has at this point in the season? We're NOT anywhere near the bubble discussion; the only way we get into the NCAAT is to win the Conference Tournament. Not to mention the fact that the "Q" has been known to change as teams win or lose down the stretch, so it may be a "Q1" win now, but will it be tomorrow?

Winning is obviously preferable to losing. To me, winning ON THE ROAD is the bigger accomplishment here. But Q1/Q2/Q3/Q4 doesn't practically matter at this point. Given the fact that we just got beaten on the road by ECU, I'm just glad we won on the road by UCF.

But this win doesn't really have much impact beyond seeding at the Conference tournament on the season.

I would still like to see this team make the NIT assuming they don't win the conference tourney. Q1 scalp matters to strengthen our resume.