Conference Efficiency:

The SEC and Big 10 have plenty of money and both have large market reach. How might they finish and why?

At 18 the SEC could efficiently complete what it has. Its needs are a hoops blueblood and a second Florida school with market penetration.

Florida State delivers the super majority of the Florida market when paired with the market leader in Florida, the University of Florida. Without further damaging the ACC which is our best barrier against Big 10 expansion if it is kept healthy. Why best? Because it is the most efficient way for the SEC to keep the Big 10 at bay. If they falter, we have to take too many lower value schools to keep them out. Kansas makes 18.

Flaw: If North Carolina wants to cash in we have to act.

What else is beneficial in a 4 x 18?

It works for the Big 10 too. Washington and Stanford or Oregon gives them added penetration and helps draw more viewers from the Old PAC 12. They can stop there too and quite profitably.

Flaw: If Notre Dame finally decides to join the Big 10 will have to expand. The added value closes some gap in value with the SEC, but it could also destabilize the balance.

18 works well elsewhere too. Let's assume FSU did leave the ACC. They could pick up either USF or UCF and be at 14 again. West Virginia makes more sense with the old Big East schools. Cincinnati adds markets. Tulane or Temple expands their market. And Central Florida or South Florida could round them out.

The Big 12 is down 4 schools and back to 8. They could pick up: Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado, and Utah to get back to 12. They could then add Oregon State, Oregon, the remainder of Oregon and Stanford, and Cal if they would come, and if not San Diego State.

There would be balance:

SEC:
Arkansas, Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas A&M
Alabama, Auburn, Florida State, Louisiana State, Mississippi, Mississippi State
Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, South Carolina, Tennessee, Vanderbilt.

B1G:
California Los Angeles, Minnesota, Nebraska, Stanford, Southern Cal, Washington
Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, Michigan State, Northwestern, Wisconsin
Indiana, Maryland, Ohio State, Penn State, Purdue, Rutgers

ACC:
Boston College, Louisville or Temple, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, West Virginia
Duke, North Carolina, North Carolina State, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest
Central Florida, Clemson, Georgia Tech, Miami, South Florida, Tulane (Louisville if Temple)

Big 12:
Boise State, Brigham Young, Oregon, Oregon State, Utah, Washington State,
Arizona, Arizona State, *California, Colorado, San Diego State, Texas Tech
Baylor, Houston, Iowa State, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Texas Christian

*If no California add Fresno State.

This covers most prospective G5 promotions, creates to higher paid conferences but leaves 2 decent conference to join them with access to the CFP in a new upper tier.

The other angles:

ESPN holds the SEC and ACC and half of the Big 12. FOX keeps the majority of the Big 10 rights and half of the Big 12. Not equitable but little different than now. So stable.
____________________________________________________________________

What if the Big 10 decides to move to 20 with or without Notre Dame?

If the Big 10 decides to fully monetize their westward expansion, then perhaps they decide to take the cream of the academic schools:

They add Washington, California, and Stanford to their West Coast holdings and pick up Colorado as a bridge.

I think the SEC responds to that kind of move and does so offensively with defense in mind. Virginia and North Carolina discourage Big 10 expansion down the coast. Florida State is still essential. With North Carolina Kansas is not as needed. Does the SEC protect its identity by taking the most SEC like school and campus in Clemson or does it add the only other must have ACC school for the Big 10, Duke? Does a Duke in the Big 10 really hurt the SEC? Not really. Duke's market reach is more into the Northeast and that could help the SEC market reach, but it doesn't hurt us. The more daunting question for Clemson would be does the SEC find more value in a third school in Florida in a part of the state where the SEC reach isn't nearly as strong? Miami? Clemson's recent history vs Miami's old history and market? Now that's a bit tougher. Here is where South Carolina's concern over keeping Clemson on the schedule makes the difference. Like Duke, Miami in the Big 10 doesn't really hurt the SEC if the Big 10 expand further. So, at 20 the SEC adds North Carolina, Virginia, Florida State and Clemson.

Now these moves destabilize the ACC significantly. The add fuel to the 3-conference model.

So how does the Big 12 or ACC respond? The Big 12 is still geographically best suited to be the compilation conference of those left behind but deserving of upper tier placement.

In this set of events the Big 12 loses nobody. They pick up Boston College, Pittsburgh, and Syracuse and Notre Dame as a partial. They pick up Duke, Virginia Tech, North Carolina State, Louisville, Georgia Tech and Miami.

24 seems reasonable now.
Big 12:
Boston College, Cincinnati, Louisville, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, West Virginia
Central Florida, Georgia Tech, Houston, Miami, North Carolina State, Virginia Tech
Baylor, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Texas Christian
Arizona, Arizona State, Brigham Young, Oregon, Texas Tech, Utah
*Notre Dame is a partial

Big 10:
California, California Los Angeles, Southern Cal, Stanford, Washington
Colorado, Iowa, Nebraska, Minnesota, Wisconsin
Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Michigan State, Northwestern
Maryland, Ohio State, Penn State, Purdue, Rutgers

SEC:
Kentucky, North Carolina, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Virginia
Clemson, Florida, Florida State, Georgia, South Carolina
Alabama, Auburn, Louisiana State, Mississippi, Mississippi State
Arkansas, Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas A&M

These are 3 strong conferences but....
Duke, Wake Forest, Oregon State, and Washington State are demoted making cooperation in realigning impractical unless Wake drops out due to pay for play and Duke goes Ivy, while WSU without a GOR to protect them just get dropped. Also, San Diego State is not promoted. These are a lot of issues.

Other Angles: ESPN's hold is consolidated and some overhead cut, but their inventory takes a knock. FOX actually gains access to areas ESPN has held to itself.
It's problematic from the network perspective.

____________________________________________________________________

Why a 3 x 24?

With four more schools (which IMO only happens with unequal revenue sharing) The SEC goes into regional lock down. Duke to complete the Tobacco Trinity and eliminate another bridge South, Georgia Tech to close out Atlanta, Miami to lock down the Florida market and Kansas to balance the new West.

The SEC becomes 4 divisions of 6:
Clemson, Duke, Kentucky, North Carolina, Virginia, Tennessee
Alabama, Auburn, Louisiana State, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Vanderbilt
Arkansas, Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas A&M
Florida, Florida State, Georgia, Georgia Tech, Miami, South Carolina.

The Big 10 adds Pittsburgh, Notre Dame, Oregon, and Arizona.

Maryland, Notre Dame, Penn State, Pittsburgh, Purdue, Rutgers
Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Michigan State, Northwestern, Ohio State
Arizona, Colorado, Iowa, Nebraska, Minnesota, Wisconsin
California, California Los Angeles, Oregon, Southern Cal, Stanford, Washington


The Big 12 is radically altered but not in a bad way, just a different way.
Arizona State, Brigham Young, Oregon State, San Diego State, Utah, Washington State
Baylor, Iowa State, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Texas Christian, Texas Tech
Boston College, Cincinnati, Louisville, Syracuse, Virginia Tech, West Virginia
Central Florida, Houston, N.C. State, South Florida, Tulane, Wake Forest

Issues and Angles: Everyone in the P5 is included. Promotions are made. ESPN holds onto everything it essentially has exclusive rights to in the East while losing Pitt and Notre Dame which move as a pair, and loses exclusivity in Kentucky, North Carolina, Virginia, and Florida but with brands which don't carry the states (Virginia Tech does). B.C. and Syracuse they give up half rights. FOX gains some SE exposure but not much and certainly nothing in terms of T1 broadcasts. FOX picks up most of the West Coast and ESPN gains some late slots, just not with prime games. The Big 12 has a very consistent balance of added programs and it does span the nation. A national conference network would nicely add to their revenue.

The biggest issue that this division of schools will face is unequal revenue sharing. That can be mitigated with a slightly disproportionate split of any future contracts to slowly balance it, or by the schools included just accepting it. Where unequal revenue sharing has led to division when the top school or schools insisted on more, this is quite different. The top schools aren't losing anything, the lower value schools are just accepting their value and are happy to keep associations up. Here it is used to include the lowest valued, not enhance the richest.

********************************************************************'

Of these 3 models the 18 team four conference model offers the fewest problems, IMO. It is clear the additions will receive full shares; no conference is obliterated but the PAC which is mortally wounded now.

The two 20 team models serve the SEC and Big 10 better in terms of fulfilling more of their likely desires for market reach and workable divisions. It just creates too many issues for the networks and leaves too little for there to be 4 healthy conferences which causes an odd division of schools for the Big 12 and leads to some current P5 likely being left out which opens legal issues.

The 24 / 3 conference model divides nicely and is workable. The network positions are likely acceptable though not ideal for either. It does however give FOX/ESPN tacit control of the CFP structure and coverage if schools they control vote for their plan, which would be likely.

Unequal revenue sharing, even when done for the inclusion of the lowest valued rather than to enrich the strongest is untested in that regard and it leaves some questions to be answered.

Right now, if I had to pick a model, while the 3 by 24 is logical and easier to control, the 4 x18 model has fewer issues. The complaints would be by schools that would likely be in at 20 and but would have to settle for less. The networks aren't really impacted, the conferences keep equal revenue sharing, and the 2 lesser valued conferences remain well constructed and healthy.

****************

Now your thoughts and opinions or alternative suggestions for each?

(02-18-2023 03:49 PM)JRsec Wrote:  Conference Efficiency:

The SEC and Big 10 have plenty of money and both have large market reach. How might they finish and why?

At 18 the SEC could efficiently complete what it has. Its needs are a hoops blueblood and a second Florida school with market penetration.

Florida State delivers the super majority of the Florida market when paired with the market leader in Florida, the University of Florida. Without further damaging the ACC which is our best barrier against Big 10 expansion if it is kept healthy. Why best? Because it is the most efficient way for the SEC to keep the Big 10 at bay. If they falter, we have to take too many lower value schools to keep them out. Kansas makes 18.

Flaw: If North Carolina wants to cash in we have to act.

What else is beneficial in a 4 x 18?

It works for the Big 10 too. Washington and Stanford or Oregon gives them added penetration and helps draw more viewers from the Old PAC 12. They can stop there too and quite profitably.

Flaw: If Notre Dame finally decides to join the Big 10 will have to expand. The added value closes some gap in value with the SEC, but it could also destabilize the balance.

18 works well elsewhere too. Let's assume FSU did leave the ACC. They could pick up either USF or UCF and be at 14 again. West Virginia makes more sense with the old Big East schools. Cincinnati adds markets. Tulane or Temple expands their market. And Central Florida or South Florida could round them out.

The Big 12 is down 4 schools and back to 8. They could pick up: Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado, and Utah to get back to 12. They could then add Oregon State, Oregon, the remainder of Oregon and Stanford, and Cal if they would come, and if not San Diego State.

There would be balance:

SEC:
Arkansas, Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas A&M
Alabama, Auburn, Florida State, Louisiana State, Mississippi, Mississippi State
Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, South Carolina, Tennessee, Vanderbilt.

B1G:
California Los Angeles, Minnesota, Nebraska, Stanford, Southern Cal, Washington
Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, Michigan State, Northwestern, Wisconsin
Indiana, Maryland, Ohio State, Penn State, Purdue, Rutgers

ACC:
Boston College, Louisville or Temple, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, West Virginia
Duke, North Carolina, North Carolina State, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest
Central Florida, Clemson, Georgia Tech, Miami, South Florida, Tulane (Louisville if Temple)

Big 12:
Boise State, Brigham Young, Oregon, Oregon State, Utah, Washington State,
Arizona, Arizona State, *California, Colorado, San Diego State, Texas Tech
Baylor, Houston, Iowa State, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Texas Christian

*If no California add Fresno State.

This covers most prospective G5 promotions, creates to higher paid conferences but leaves 2 decent conference to join them with access to the CFP in a new upper tier.

The other angles:

ESPN holds the SEC and ACC and half of the Big 12. FOX keeps the majority of the Big 10 rights and half of the Big 12. Not equitable but little different than now. So stable.
____________________________________________________________________

What if the Big 10 decides to move to 20 with or without Notre Dame?

If the Big 10 decides to fully monetize their westward expansion, then perhaps they decide to take the cream of the academic schools:

They add Washington, California, and Stanford to their West Coast holdings and pick up Colorado as a bridge.

I think the SEC responds to that kind of move and does so offensively with defense in mind. Virginia and North Carolina discourage Big 10 expansion down the coast. Florida State is still essential. With North Carolina Kansas is not as needed. Does the SEC protect its identity by taking the most SEC like school and campus in Clemson or does it add the only other must have ACC school for the Big 10, Duke? Does a Duke in the Big 10 really hurt the SEC? Not really. Duke's market reach is more into the Northeast and that could help the SEC market reach, but it doesn't hurt us. The more daunting question for Clemson would be does the SEC find more value in a third school in Florida in a part of the state where the SEC reach isn't nearly as strong? Miami? Clemson's recent history vs Miami's old history and market? Now that's a bit tougher. Here is where South Carolina's concern over keeping Clemson on the schedule makes the difference. Like Duke, Miami in the Big 10 doesn't really hurt the SEC if the Big 10 expand further. So, at 20 the SEC adds North Carolina, Virginia, Florida State and Clemson.

Now these moves destabilize the ACC significantly. The add fuel to the 3-conference model.

So how does the Big 12 or ACC respond? The Big 12 is still geographically best suited to be the compilation conference of those left behind but deserving of upper tier placement.

In this set of events the Big 12 loses nobody. They pick up Boston College, Pittsburgh, and Syracuse and Notre Dame as a partial. They pick up Duke, Virginia Tech, North Carolina State, Louisville, Georgia Tech and Miami.

24 seems reasonable now.
Big 12:
Boston College, Cincinnati, Louisville, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, West Virginia
Central Florida, Georgia Tech, Houston, Miami, North Carolina State, Virginia Tech
Baylor, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Texas Christian
Arizona, Arizona State, Brigham Young, Oregon, Texas Tech, Utah
*Notre Dame is a partial

Big 10:
California, California Los Angeles, Southern Cal, Stanford, Washington
Colorado, Iowa, Nebraska, Minnesota, Wisconsin
Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Michigan State, Northwestern
Maryland, Ohio State, Penn State, Purdue, Rutgers

SEC:
Kentucky, North Carolina, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Virginia
Clemson, Florida, Florida State, Georgia, South Carolina
Alabama, Auburn, Louisiana State, Mississippi, Mississippi State
Arkansas, Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas A&M

These are 3 strong conferences but....
Duke, Wake Forest, Oregon State, and Washington State are demoted making cooperation in realigning impractical unless Wake drops out due to pay for play and Duke goes Ivy, while WSU without a GOR to protect them just get dropped. Also, San Diego State is not promoted. These are a lot of issues.

Other Angles: ESPN's hold is consolidated and some overhead cut, but their inventory takes a knock. FOX actually gains access to areas ESPN has held to itself.
It's problematic from the network perspective.

____________________________________________________________________

Why a 3 x 24?

With four more schools (which IMO only happens with unequal revenue sharing) The SEC goes into regional lock down. Duke to complete the Tobacco Trinity and eliminate another bridge South, Georgia Tech to close out Atlanta, Miami to lock down the Florida market and Kansas to balance the new West.

The SEC becomes 4 divisions of 6:
Clemson, Duke, Kentucky, North Carolina, Virginia, Tennessee
Alabama, Auburn, Louisiana State, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Vanderbilt
Arkansas, Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas A&M
Florida, Florida State, Georgia, Georgia Tech, Miami, South Carolina.

The Big 10 adds Pittsburgh, Notre Dame, Oregon, and Arizona.

Maryland, Notre Dame, Penn State, Pittsburgh, Purdue, Rutgers
Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Michigan State, Northwestern, Ohio State
Arizona, Colorado, Iowa, Nebraska, Minnesota, Wisconsin
California, California Los Angeles, Oregon, Southern Cal, Stanford, Washington


The Big 12 is radically altered but not in a bad way, just a different way.
Arizona State, Brigham Young, Oregon State, San Diego State, Utah, Washington State
Baylor, Iowa State, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Texas Christian, Texas Tech
Boston College, Cincinnati, Louisville, Syracuse, Virginia Tech, West Virginia
Central Florida, Houston, N.C. State, South Florida, Tulane, Wake Forest

Issues and Angles: Everyone in the P5 is included. Promotions are made. ESPN holds onto everything it essentially has exclusive rights to in the East while losing Pitt and Notre Dame which move as a pair, and loses exclusivity in Kentucky, North Carolina, Virginia, and Florida but with brands which don't carry the states (Virginia Tech does). B.C. and Syracuse they give up half rights. FOX gains some SE exposure but not much and certainly nothing in terms of T1 broadcasts. FOX picks up most of the West Coast and ESPN gains some late slots, just not with prime games. The Big 12 has a very consistent balance of added programs and it does span the nation. A national conference network would nicely add to their revenue.

The biggest issue that this division of schools will face is unequal revenue sharing. That can be mitigated with a slightly disproportionate split of any future contracts to slowly balance it, or by the schools included just accepting it. Where unequal revenue sharing has led to division when the top school or schools insisted on more, this is quite different. The top schools aren't losing anything, the lower value schools are just accepting their value and are happy to keep associations up. Here it is used to include the lowest valued, not enhance the richest.

********************************************************************'

Of these 3 models the 18 team four conference model offers the fewest problems, IMO. It is clear the additions will receive full shares; no conference is obliterated but the PAC which is mortally wounded now.

The two 20 team models serve the SEC and Big 10 better in terms of fulfilling more of their likely desires for market reach and workable divisions. It just creates too many issues for the networks and leaves too little for there to be 4 healthy conferences which causes an odd division of schools for the Big 12 and leads to some current P5 likely being left out which opens legal issues.

The 24 / 3 conference model divides nicely and is workable. The network positions are likely acceptable though not ideal for either. It does however give FOX/ESPN tacit control of the CFP structure and coverage if schools they control vote for their plan, which would be likely.

Unequal revenue sharing, even when done for the inclusion of the lowest valued rather than to enrich the strongest is untested in that regard and it leaves some questions to be answered.

Right now, if I had to pick a model, while the 3 by 24 is logical and easier to control, the 4 x18 model has fewer issues. The complaints would be by schools that would likely be in at 20 and but would have to settle for less. The networks aren't really impacted, the conferences keep equal revenue sharing, and the 2 lesser valued conferences remain well constructed and healthy.

****************

Now your thoughts and opinions or alternative suggestions for each?

I certainly cannot and would not argue with any of your logic for these various scenarios. I only offer a comment related to Clemson ..... any scenario that results in Clemson being permanently stuck in a non-football centric conference like the ACC would probably result in a solo aria by the "fat lady" for it's football program. Given the likely massive payout disparity between the resulting conferences and the inherent recruiting disadvantages, I would see no way for Clemson to compete at anything other than a mediocre level in football which is unfortunately perfectly fine and acceptable for just about all of the schools in the ACC except for Clemson (and FSU). If it was to reach such a point, Clemson might as well reclassify to FCS - nothing quite like a good football game in Fargo, ND in late November!

(02-19-2023 09:03 PM)PAW79 Wrote:  

(02-18-2023 03:49 PM)JRsec Wrote:  Conference Efficiency:

The SEC and Big 10 have plenty of money and both have large market reach. How might they finish and why?

At 18 the SEC could efficiently complete what it has. Its needs are a hoops blueblood and a second Florida school with market penetration.

Florida State delivers the super majority of the Florida market when paired with the market leader in Florida, the University of Florida. Without further damaging the ACC which is our best barrier against Big 10 expansion if it is kept healthy. Why best? Because it is the most efficient way for the SEC to keep the Big 10 at bay. If they falter, we have to take too many lower value schools to keep them out. Kansas makes 18.

Flaw: If North Carolina wants to cash in we have to act.

What else is beneficial in a 4 x 18?

It works for the Big 10 too. Washington and Stanford or Oregon gives them added penetration and helps draw more viewers from the Old PAC 12. They can stop there too and quite profitably.

Flaw: If Notre Dame finally decides to join the Big 10 will have to expand. The added value closes some gap in value with the SEC, but it could also destabilize the balance.

18 works well elsewhere too. Let's assume FSU did leave the ACC. They could pick up either USF or UCF and be at 14 again. West Virginia makes more sense with the old Big East schools. Cincinnati adds markets. Tulane or Temple expands their market. And Central Florida or South Florida could round them out.

The Big 12 is down 4 schools and back to 8. They could pick up: Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado, and Utah to get back to 12. They could then add Oregon State, Oregon, the remainder of Oregon and Stanford, and Cal if they would come, and if not San Diego State.

There would be balance:

SEC:
Arkansas, Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas A&M
Alabama, Auburn, Florida State, Louisiana State, Mississippi, Mississippi State
Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, South Carolina, Tennessee, Vanderbilt.

B1G:
California Los Angeles, Minnesota, Nebraska, Stanford, Southern Cal, Washington
Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, Michigan State, Northwestern, Wisconsin
Indiana, Maryland, Ohio State, Penn State, Purdue, Rutgers

ACC:
Boston College, Louisville or Temple, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, West Virginia
Duke, North Carolina, North Carolina State, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest
Central Florida, Clemson, Georgia Tech, Miami, South Florida, Tulane (Louisville if Temple)

Big 12:
Boise State, Brigham Young, Oregon, Oregon State, Utah, Washington State,
Arizona, Arizona State, *California, Colorado, San Diego State, Texas Tech
Baylor, Houston, Iowa State, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Texas Christian

*If no California add Fresno State.

This covers most prospective G5 promotions, creates to higher paid conferences but leaves 2 decent conference to join them with access to the CFP in a new upper tier.

The other angles:

ESPN holds the SEC and ACC and half of the Big 12. FOX keeps the majority of the Big 10 rights and half of the Big 12. Not equitable but little different than now. So stable.
____________________________________________________________________

What if the Big 10 decides to move to 20 with or without Notre Dame?

If the Big 10 decides to fully monetize their westward expansion, then perhaps they decide to take the cream of the academic schools:

They add Washington, California, and Stanford to their West Coast holdings and pick up Colorado as a bridge.

I think the SEC responds to that kind of move and does so offensively with defense in mind. Virginia and North Carolina discourage Big 10 expansion down the coast. Florida State is still essential. With North Carolina Kansas is not as needed. Does the SEC protect its identity by taking the most SEC like school and campus in Clemson or does it add the only other must have ACC school for the Big 10, Duke? Does a Duke in the Big 10 really hurt the SEC? Not really. Duke's market reach is more into the Northeast and that could help the SEC market reach, but it doesn't hurt us. The more daunting question for Clemson would be does the SEC find more value in a third school in Florida in a part of the state where the SEC reach isn't nearly as strong? Miami? Clemson's recent history vs Miami's old history and market? Now that's a bit tougher. Here is where South Carolina's concern over keeping Clemson on the schedule makes the difference. Like Duke, Miami in the Big 10 doesn't really hurt the SEC if the Big 10 expand further. So, at 20 the SEC adds North Carolina, Virginia, Florida State and Clemson.

Now these moves destabilize the ACC significantly. The add fuel to the 3-conference model.

So how does the Big 12 or ACC respond? The Big 12 is still geographically best suited to be the compilation conference of those left behind but deserving of upper tier placement.

In this set of events the Big 12 loses nobody. They pick up Boston College, Pittsburgh, and Syracuse and Notre Dame as a partial. They pick up Duke, Virginia Tech, North Carolina State, Louisville, Georgia Tech and Miami.

24 seems reasonable now.
Big 12:
Boston College, Cincinnati, Louisville, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, West Virginia
Central Florida, Georgia Tech, Houston, Miami, North Carolina State, Virginia Tech
Baylor, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Texas Christian
Arizona, Arizona State, Brigham Young, Oregon, Texas Tech, Utah
*Notre Dame is a partial

Big 10:
California, California Los Angeles, Southern Cal, Stanford, Washington
Colorado, Iowa, Nebraska, Minnesota, Wisconsin
Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Michigan State, Northwestern
Maryland, Ohio State, Penn State, Purdue, Rutgers

SEC:
Kentucky, North Carolina, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Virginia
Clemson, Florida, Florida State, Georgia, South Carolina
Alabama, Auburn, Louisiana State, Mississippi, Mississippi State
Arkansas, Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas A&M

These are 3 strong conferences but....
Duke, Wake Forest, Oregon State, and Washington State are demoted making cooperation in realigning impractical unless Wake drops out due to pay for play and Duke goes Ivy, while WSU without a GOR to protect them just get dropped. Also, San Diego State is not promoted. These are a lot of issues.

Other Angles: ESPN's hold is consolidated and some overhead cut, but their inventory takes a knock. FOX actually gains access to areas ESPN has held to itself.
It's problematic from the network perspective.

____________________________________________________________________

Why a 3 x 24?

With four more schools (which IMO only happens with unequal revenue sharing) The SEC goes into regional lock down. Duke to complete the Tobacco Trinity and eliminate another bridge South, Georgia Tech to close out Atlanta, Miami to lock down the Florida market and Kansas to balance the new West.

The SEC becomes 4 divisions of 6:
Clemson, Duke, Kentucky, North Carolina, Virginia, Tennessee
Alabama, Auburn, Louisiana State, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Vanderbilt
Arkansas, Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas A&M
Florida, Florida State, Georgia, Georgia Tech, Miami, South Carolina.

The Big 10 adds Pittsburgh, Notre Dame, Oregon, and Arizona.

Maryland, Notre Dame, Penn State, Pittsburgh, Purdue, Rutgers
Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Michigan State, Northwestern, Ohio State
Arizona, Colorado, Iowa, Nebraska, Minnesota, Wisconsin
California, California Los Angeles, Oregon, Southern Cal, Stanford, Washington


The Big 12 is radically altered but not in a bad way, just a different way.
Arizona State, Brigham Young, Oregon State, San Diego State, Utah, Washington State
Baylor, Iowa State, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Texas Christian, Texas Tech
Boston College, Cincinnati, Louisville, Syracuse, Virginia Tech, West Virginia
Central Florida, Houston, N.C. State, South Florida, Tulane, Wake Forest

Issues and Angles: Everyone in the P5 is included. Promotions are made. ESPN holds onto everything it essentially has exclusive rights to in the East while losing Pitt and Notre Dame which move as a pair, and loses exclusivity in Kentucky, North Carolina, Virginia, and Florida but with brands which don't carry the states (Virginia Tech does). B.C. and Syracuse they give up half rights. FOX gains some SE exposure but not much and certainly nothing in terms of T1 broadcasts. FOX picks up most of the West Coast and ESPN gains some late slots, just not with prime games. The Big 12 has a very consistent balance of added programs and it does span the nation. A national conference network would nicely add to their revenue.

The biggest issue that this division of schools will face is unequal revenue sharing. That can be mitigated with a slightly disproportionate split of any future contracts to slowly balance it, or by the schools included just accepting it. Where unequal revenue sharing has led to division when the top school or schools insisted on more, this is quite different. The top schools aren't losing anything, the lower value schools are just accepting their value and are happy to keep associations up. Here it is used to include the lowest valued, not enhance the richest.

********************************************************************'

Of these 3 models the 18 team four conference model offers the fewest problems, IMO. It is clear the additions will receive full shares; no conference is obliterated but the PAC which is mortally wounded now.

The two 20 team models serve the SEC and Big 10 better in terms of fulfilling more of their likely desires for market reach and workable divisions. It just creates too many issues for the networks and leaves too little for there to be 4 healthy conferences which causes an odd division of schools for the Big 12 and leads to some current P5 likely being left out which opens legal issues.

The 24 / 3 conference model divides nicely and is workable. The network positions are likely acceptable though not ideal for either. It does however give FOX/ESPN tacit control of the CFP structure and coverage if schools they control vote for their plan, which would be likely.

Unequal revenue sharing, even when done for the inclusion of the lowest valued rather than to enrich the strongest is untested in that regard and it leaves some questions to be answered.

Right now, if I had to pick a model, while the 3 by 24 is logical and easier to control, the 4 x18 model has fewer issues. The complaints would be by schools that would likely be in at 20 and but would have to settle for less. The networks aren't really impacted, the conferences keep equal revenue sharing, and the 2 lesser valued conferences remain well constructed and healthy.

****************

Now your thoughts and opinions or alternative suggestions for each?

I certainly cannot and would not argue with any of your logic for these various scenarios. I only offer a comment related to Clemson ..... any scenario that results in Clemson being permanently stuck in a non-football centric conference like the ACC would probably result in a solo aria by the "fat lady" for it's football program. Given the likely massive payout disparity between the resulting conferences and the inherent recruiting disadvantages, I would see no way for Clemson to compete at anything other than a mediocre level in football which is unfortunately perfectly fine and acceptable for just about all of the schools in the ACC except for Clemson (and FSU). If it was to reach such a point, Clemson might as well reclassify to FCS - nothing quite like a good football game in Fargo, ND in late November!

I hope for your sake, a great fan base, and you have one, that you and FSU both find a way out.

I also hope the SEC looks no farther than Kansas to the West. We are Southern Football and it wouldn't be the same if FSU and Clemson were MIA.

I could see a scenario where the power conferences are done offering golden tickets to non-power schools. B1G and SEC move to 20 and the XII merges into a large national conference at 28. Notre Dame remains independent.

B1G: California, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Maryland, Michigan, Michigan St, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, Ohio St, Oregon, Penn St, Purdue, Rutgers, Stanford, UCLA, USC, Washington, Wisconsin

SEC: Alabama, Arkansas, Auburn, Clemson, Florida, Florida St, Georgia, Kentucky, LSU, Mississippi, Mississippi St, Missouri, North Carolina, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Texas A&M, Vanderbilt, Virginia

XXVIII: Arizona, Arizona St, Baylor, Boston College, BYU, Central Florida, Cincinnati, Colorado, Duke, Georgia Tech, Houston, Iowa St, Kansas, Kansas St, Louisville, Miami, North Carolina St, Oklahoma St, Oregon St, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, TCU, Texas Tech, Utah, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest, Washington St, West Virginia

IND: Notre Dame

(02-19-2023 09:26 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(02-19-2023 09:03 PM)PAW79 Wrote:  

(02-18-2023 03:49 PM)JRsec Wrote:  Conference Efficiency:

The SEC and Big 10 have plenty of money and both have large market reach. How might they finish and why?

At 18 the SEC could efficiently complete what it has. Its needs are a hoops blueblood and a second Florida school with market penetration.

Florida State delivers the super majority of the Florida market when paired with the market leader in Florida, the University of Florida. Without further damaging the ACC which is our best barrier against Big 10 expansion if it is kept healthy. Why best? Because it is the most efficient way for the SEC to keep the Big 10 at bay. If they falter, we have to take too many lower value schools to keep them out. Kansas makes 18.

Flaw: If North Carolina wants to cash in we have to act.

What else is beneficial in a 4 x 18?

It works for the Big 10 too. Washington and Stanford or Oregon gives them added penetration and helps draw more viewers from the Old PAC 12. They can stop there too and quite profitably.

Flaw: If Notre Dame finally decides to join the Big 10 will have to expand. The added value closes some gap in value with the SEC, but it could also destabilize the balance.

18 works well elsewhere too. Let's assume FSU did leave the ACC. They could pick up either USF or UCF and be at 14 again. West Virginia makes more sense with the old Big East schools. Cincinnati adds markets. Tulane or Temple expands their market. And Central Florida or South Florida could round them out.

The Big 12 is down 4 schools and back to 8. They could pick up: Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado, and Utah to get back to 12. They could then add Oregon State, Oregon, the remainder of Oregon and Stanford, and Cal if they would come, and if not San Diego State.

There would be balance:

SEC:
Arkansas, Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas A&M
Alabama, Auburn, Florida State, Louisiana State, Mississippi, Mississippi State
Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, South Carolina, Tennessee, Vanderbilt.

B1G:
California Los Angeles, Minnesota, Nebraska, Stanford, Southern Cal, Washington
Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, Michigan State, Northwestern, Wisconsin
Indiana, Maryland, Ohio State, Penn State, Purdue, Rutgers

ACC:
Boston College, Louisville or Temple, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, West Virginia
Duke, North Carolina, North Carolina State, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest
Central Florida, Clemson, Georgia Tech, Miami, South Florida, Tulane (Louisville if Temple)

Big 12:
Boise State, Brigham Young, Oregon, Oregon State, Utah, Washington State,
Arizona, Arizona State, *California, Colorado, San Diego State, Texas Tech
Baylor, Houston, Iowa State, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Texas Christian

*If no California add Fresno State.

This covers most prospective G5 promotions, creates to higher paid conferences but leaves 2 decent conference to join them with access to the CFP in a new upper tier.

The other angles:

ESPN holds the SEC and ACC and half of the Big 12. FOX keeps the majority of the Big 10 rights and half of the Big 12. Not equitable but little different than now. So stable.
____________________________________________________________________

What if the Big 10 decides to move to 20 with or without Notre Dame?

If the Big 10 decides to fully monetize their westward expansion, then perhaps they decide to take the cream of the academic schools:

They add Washington, California, and Stanford to their West Coast holdings and pick up Colorado as a bridge.

I think the SEC responds to that kind of move and does so offensively with defense in mind. Virginia and North Carolina discourage Big 10 expansion down the coast. Florida State is still essential. With North Carolina Kansas is not as needed. Does the SEC protect its identity by taking the most SEC like school and campus in Clemson or does it add the only other must have ACC school for the Big 10, Duke? Does a Duke in the Big 10 really hurt the SEC? Not really. Duke's market reach is more into the Northeast and that could help the SEC market reach, but it doesn't hurt us. The more daunting question for Clemson would be does the SEC find more value in a third school in Florida in a part of the state where the SEC reach isn't nearly as strong? Miami? Clemson's recent history vs Miami's old history and market? Now that's a bit tougher. Here is where South Carolina's concern over keeping Clemson on the schedule makes the difference. Like Duke, Miami in the Big 10 doesn't really hurt the SEC if the Big 10 expand further. So, at 20 the SEC adds North Carolina, Virginia, Florida State and Clemson.

Now these moves destabilize the ACC significantly. The add fuel to the 3-conference model.

So how does the Big 12 or ACC respond? The Big 12 is still geographically best suited to be the compilation conference of those left behind but deserving of upper tier placement.

In this set of events the Big 12 loses nobody. They pick up Boston College, Pittsburgh, and Syracuse and Notre Dame as a partial. They pick up Duke, Virginia Tech, North Carolina State, Louisville, Georgia Tech and Miami.

24 seems reasonable now.
Big 12:
Boston College, Cincinnati, Louisville, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, West Virginia
Central Florida, Georgia Tech, Houston, Miami, North Carolina State, Virginia Tech
Baylor, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Texas Christian
Arizona, Arizona State, Brigham Young, Oregon, Texas Tech, Utah
*Notre Dame is a partial

Big 10:
California, California Los Angeles, Southern Cal, Stanford, Washington
Colorado, Iowa, Nebraska, Minnesota, Wisconsin
Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Michigan State, Northwestern
Maryland, Ohio State, Penn State, Purdue, Rutgers

SEC:
Kentucky, North Carolina, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Virginia
Clemson, Florida, Florida State, Georgia, South Carolina
Alabama, Auburn, Louisiana State, Mississippi, Mississippi State
Arkansas, Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas A&M

These are 3 strong conferences but....
Duke, Wake Forest, Oregon State, and Washington State are demoted making cooperation in realigning impractical unless Wake drops out due to pay for play and Duke goes Ivy, while WSU without a GOR to protect them just get dropped. Also, San Diego State is not promoted. These are a lot of issues.

Other Angles: ESPN's hold is consolidated and some overhead cut, but their inventory takes a knock. FOX actually gains access to areas ESPN has held to itself.
It's problematic from the network perspective.

____________________________________________________________________

Why a 3 x 24?

With four more schools (which IMO only happens with unequal revenue sharing) The SEC goes into regional lock down. Duke to complete the Tobacco Trinity and eliminate another bridge South, Georgia Tech to close out Atlanta, Miami to lock down the Florida market and Kansas to balance the new West.

The SEC becomes 4 divisions of 6:
Clemson, Duke, Kentucky, North Carolina, Virginia, Tennessee
Alabama, Auburn, Louisiana State, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Vanderbilt
Arkansas, Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas A&M
Florida, Florida State, Georgia, Georgia Tech, Miami, South Carolina.

The Big 10 adds Pittsburgh, Notre Dame, Oregon, and Arizona.

Maryland, Notre Dame, Penn State, Pittsburgh, Purdue, Rutgers
Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Michigan State, Northwestern, Ohio State
Arizona, Colorado, Iowa, Nebraska, Minnesota, Wisconsin
California, California Los Angeles, Oregon, Southern Cal, Stanford, Washington


The Big 12 is radically altered but not in a bad way, just a different way.
Arizona State, Brigham Young, Oregon State, San Diego State, Utah, Washington State
Baylor, Iowa State, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Texas Christian, Texas Tech
Boston College, Cincinnati, Louisville, Syracuse, Virginia Tech, West Virginia
Central Florida, Houston, N.C. State, South Florida, Tulane, Wake Forest

Issues and Angles: Everyone in the P5 is included. Promotions are made. ESPN holds onto everything it essentially has exclusive rights to in the East while losing Pitt and Notre Dame which move as a pair, and loses exclusivity in Kentucky, North Carolina, Virginia, and Florida but with brands which don't carry the states (Virginia Tech does). B.C. and Syracuse they give up half rights. FOX gains some SE exposure but not much and certainly nothing in terms of T1 broadcasts. FOX picks up most of the West Coast and ESPN gains some late slots, just not with prime games. The Big 12 has a very consistent balance of added programs and it does span the nation. A national conference network would nicely add to their revenue.

The biggest issue that this division of schools will face is unequal revenue sharing. That can be mitigated with a slightly disproportionate split of any future contracts to slowly balance it, or by the schools included just accepting it. Where unequal revenue sharing has led to division when the top school or schools insisted on more, this is quite different. The top schools aren't losing anything, the lower value schools are just accepting their value and are happy to keep associations up. Here it is used to include the lowest valued, not enhance the richest.

********************************************************************'

Of these 3 models the 18 team four conference model offers the fewest problems, IMO. It is clear the additions will receive full shares; no conference is obliterated but the PAC which is mortally wounded now.

The two 20 team models serve the SEC and Big 10 better in terms of fulfilling more of their likely desires for market reach and workable divisions. It just creates too many issues for the networks and leaves too little for there to be 4 healthy conferences which causes an odd division of schools for the Big 12 and leads to some current P5 likely being left out which opens legal issues.

The 24 / 3 conference model divides nicely and is workable. The network positions are likely acceptable though not ideal for either. It does however give FOX/ESPN tacit control of the CFP structure and coverage if schools they control vote for their plan, which would be likely.

Unequal revenue sharing, even when done for the inclusion of the lowest valued rather than to enrich the strongest is untested in that regard and it leaves some questions to be answered.

Right now, if I had to pick a model, while the 3 by 24 is logical and easier to control, the 4 x18 model has fewer issues. The complaints would be by schools that would likely be in at 20 and but would have to settle for less. The networks aren't really impacted, the conferences keep equal revenue sharing, and the 2 lesser valued conferences remain well constructed and healthy.

****************

Now your thoughts and opinions or alternative suggestions for each?

I certainly cannot and would not argue with any of your logic for these various scenarios. I only offer a comment related to Clemson ..... any scenario that results in Clemson being permanently stuck in a non-football centric conference like the ACC would probably result in a solo aria by the "fat lady" for it's football program. Given the likely massive payout disparity between the resulting conferences and the inherent recruiting disadvantages, I would see no way for Clemson to compete at anything other than a mediocre level in football which is unfortunately perfectly fine and acceptable for just about all of the schools in the ACC except for Clemson (and FSU). If it was to reach such a point, Clemson might as well reclassify to FCS - nothing quite like a good football game in Fargo, ND in late November!

I hope for your sake, a great fan base, and you have one, that you and FSU both find a way out.

I also hope the SEC looks no farther than Kansas to the West. We are Southern Football and it wouldn't be the same if FSU and Clemson were MIA.

If the SEC goes West again for expansion, I can only see Kansas and Nebraska as being viable options.

I agree that the prime SEC targets are FSU, Clemson, North Carolina and a Virginia school. Maybe, the SEC also offers Duke to keep the B1G from snatching UNC from the SEC. In that case a 6th spot opens up for the second VA school or whoever is available and offers the highest value. I agree Miami could join the Big Ten and not be concerned.

Here’s an idea: what if Duke and Notre Dame were offered partial memberships to keep UNC-Duke rivalry going and ND football independence? Heck, the SEC might not even care if there is a max or minimum on required games against the Irish. Kansas could be slotted in too.

(02-22-2023 12:02 AM)murrdcu Wrote:  

(02-19-2023 09:26 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(02-19-2023 09:03 PM)PAW79 Wrote:  

(02-18-2023 03:49 PM)JRsec Wrote:  Conference Efficiency:

The SEC and Big 10 have plenty of money and both have large market reach. How might they finish and why?

At 18 the SEC could efficiently complete what it has. Its needs are a hoops blueblood and a second Florida school with market penetration.

Florida State delivers the super majority of the Florida market when paired with the market leader in Florida, the University of Florida. Without further damaging the ACC which is our best barrier against Big 10 expansion if it is kept healthy. Why best? Because it is the most efficient way for the SEC to keep the Big 10 at bay. If they falter, we have to take too many lower value schools to keep them out. Kansas makes 18.

Flaw: If North Carolina wants to cash in we have to act.

What else is beneficial in a 4 x 18?

It works for the Big 10 too. Washington and Stanford or Oregon gives them added penetration and helps draw more viewers from the Old PAC 12. They can stop there too and quite profitably.

Flaw: If Notre Dame finally decides to join the Big 10 will have to expand. The added value closes some gap in value with the SEC, but it could also destabilize the balance.

18 works well elsewhere too. Let's assume FSU did leave the ACC. They could pick up either USF or UCF and be at 14 again. West Virginia makes more sense with the old Big East schools. Cincinnati adds markets. Tulane or Temple expands their market. And Central Florida or South Florida could round them out.

The Big 12 is down 4 schools and back to 8. They could pick up: Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado, and Utah to get back to 12. They could then add Oregon State, Oregon, the remainder of Oregon and Stanford, and Cal if they would come, and if not San Diego State.

There would be balance:

SEC:
Arkansas, Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas A&M
Alabama, Auburn, Florida State, Louisiana State, Mississippi, Mississippi State
Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, South Carolina, Tennessee, Vanderbilt.

B1G:
California Los Angeles, Minnesota, Nebraska, Stanford, Southern Cal, Washington
Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, Michigan State, Northwestern, Wisconsin
Indiana, Maryland, Ohio State, Penn State, Purdue, Rutgers

ACC:
Boston College, Louisville or Temple, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, West Virginia
Duke, North Carolina, North Carolina State, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest
Central Florida, Clemson, Georgia Tech, Miami, South Florida, Tulane (Louisville if Temple)

Big 12:
Boise State, Brigham Young, Oregon, Oregon State, Utah, Washington State,
Arizona, Arizona State, *California, Colorado, San Diego State, Texas Tech
Baylor, Houston, Iowa State, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Texas Christian

*If no California add Fresno State.

This covers most prospective G5 promotions, creates to higher paid conferences but leaves 2 decent conference to join them with access to the CFP in a new upper tier.

The other angles:

ESPN holds the SEC and ACC and half of the Big 12. FOX keeps the majority of the Big 10 rights and half of the Big 12. Not equitable but little different than now. So stable.
____________________________________________________________________

What if the Big 10 decides to move to 20 with or without Notre Dame?

If the Big 10 decides to fully monetize their westward expansion, then perhaps they decide to take the cream of the academic schools:

They add Washington, California, and Stanford to their West Coast holdings and pick up Colorado as a bridge.

I think the SEC responds to that kind of move and does so offensively with defense in mind. Virginia and North Carolina discourage Big 10 expansion down the coast. Florida State is still essential. With North Carolina Kansas is not as needed. Does the SEC protect its identity by taking the most SEC like school and campus in Clemson or does it add the only other must have ACC school for the Big 10, Duke? Does a Duke in the Big 10 really hurt the SEC? Not really. Duke's market reach is more into the Northeast and that could help the SEC market reach, but it doesn't hurt us. The more daunting question for Clemson would be does the SEC find more value in a third school in Florida in a part of the state where the SEC reach isn't nearly as strong? Miami? Clemson's recent history vs Miami's old history and market? Now that's a bit tougher. Here is where South Carolina's concern over keeping Clemson on the schedule makes the difference. Like Duke, Miami in the Big 10 doesn't really hurt the SEC if the Big 10 expand further. So, at 20 the SEC adds North Carolina, Virginia, Florida State and Clemson.

Now these moves destabilize the ACC significantly. The add fuel to the 3-conference model.

So how does the Big 12 or ACC respond? The Big 12 is still geographically best suited to be the compilation conference of those left behind but deserving of upper tier placement.

In this set of events the Big 12 loses nobody. They pick up Boston College, Pittsburgh, and Syracuse and Notre Dame as a partial. They pick up Duke, Virginia Tech, North Carolina State, Louisville, Georgia Tech and Miami.

24 seems reasonable now.
Big 12:
Boston College, Cincinnati, Louisville, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, West Virginia
Central Florida, Georgia Tech, Houston, Miami, North Carolina State, Virginia Tech
Baylor, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Texas Christian
Arizona, Arizona State, Brigham Young, Oregon, Texas Tech, Utah
*Notre Dame is a partial

Big 10:
California, California Los Angeles, Southern Cal, Stanford, Washington
Colorado, Iowa, Nebraska, Minnesota, Wisconsin
Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Michigan State, Northwestern
Maryland, Ohio State, Penn State, Purdue, Rutgers

SEC:
Kentucky, North Carolina, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Virginia
Clemson, Florida, Florida State, Georgia, South Carolina
Alabama, Auburn, Louisiana State, Mississippi, Mississippi State
Arkansas, Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas A&M

These are 3 strong conferences but....
Duke, Wake Forest, Oregon State, and Washington State are demoted making cooperation in realigning impractical unless Wake drops out due to pay for play and Duke goes Ivy, while WSU without a GOR to protect them just get dropped. Also, San Diego State is not promoted. These are a lot of issues.

Other Angles: ESPN's hold is consolidated and some overhead cut, but their inventory takes a knock. FOX actually gains access to areas ESPN has held to itself.
It's problematic from the network perspective.

____________________________________________________________________

Why a 3 x 24?

With four more schools (which IMO only happens with unequal revenue sharing) The SEC goes into regional lock down. Duke to complete the Tobacco Trinity and eliminate another bridge South, Georgia Tech to close out Atlanta, Miami to lock down the Florida market and Kansas to balance the new West.

The SEC becomes 4 divisions of 6:
Clemson, Duke, Kentucky, North Carolina, Virginia, Tennessee
Alabama, Auburn, Louisiana State, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Vanderbilt
Arkansas, Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas A&M
Florida, Florida State, Georgia, Georgia Tech, Miami, South Carolina.

The Big 10 adds Pittsburgh, Notre Dame, Oregon, and Arizona.

Maryland, Notre Dame, Penn State, Pittsburgh, Purdue, Rutgers
Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Michigan State, Northwestern, Ohio State
Arizona, Colorado, Iowa, Nebraska, Minnesota, Wisconsin
California, California Los Angeles, Oregon, Southern Cal, Stanford, Washington


The Big 12 is radically altered but not in a bad way, just a different way.
Arizona State, Brigham Young, Oregon State, San Diego State, Utah, Washington State
Baylor, Iowa State, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Texas Christian, Texas Tech
Boston College, Cincinnati, Louisville, Syracuse, Virginia Tech, West Virginia
Central Florida, Houston, N.C. State, South Florida, Tulane, Wake Forest

Issues and Angles: Everyone in the P5 is included. Promotions are made. ESPN holds onto everything it essentially has exclusive rights to in the East while losing Pitt and Notre Dame which move as a pair, and loses exclusivity in Kentucky, North Carolina, Virginia, and Florida but with brands which don't carry the states (Virginia Tech does). B.C. and Syracuse they give up half rights. FOX gains some SE exposure but not much and certainly nothing in terms of T1 broadcasts. FOX picks up most of the West Coast and ESPN gains some late slots, just not with prime games. The Big 12 has a very consistent balance of added programs and it does span the nation. A national conference network would nicely add to their revenue.

The biggest issue that this division of schools will face is unequal revenue sharing. That can be mitigated with a slightly disproportionate split of any future contracts to slowly balance it, or by the schools included just accepting it. Where unequal revenue sharing has led to division when the top school or schools insisted on more, this is quite different. The top schools aren't losing anything, the lower value schools are just accepting their value and are happy to keep associations up. Here it is used to include the lowest valued, not enhance the richest.

********************************************************************'

Of these 3 models the 18 team four conference model offers the fewest problems, IMO. It is clear the additions will receive full shares; no conference is obliterated but the PAC which is mortally wounded now.

The two 20 team models serve the SEC and Big 10 better in terms of fulfilling more of their likely desires for market reach and workable divisions. It just creates too many issues for the networks and leaves too little for there to be 4 healthy conferences which causes an odd division of schools for the Big 12 and leads to some current P5 likely being left out which opens legal issues.

The 24 / 3 conference model divides nicely and is workable. The network positions are likely acceptable though not ideal for either. It does however give FOX/ESPN tacit control of the CFP structure and coverage if schools they control vote for their plan, which would be likely.

Unequal revenue sharing, even when done for the inclusion of the lowest valued rather than to enrich the strongest is untested in that regard and it leaves some questions to be answered.

Right now, if I had to pick a model, while the 3 by 24 is logical and easier to control, the 4 x18 model has fewer issues. The complaints would be by schools that would likely be in at 20 and but would have to settle for less. The networks aren't really impacted, the conferences keep equal revenue sharing, and the 2 lesser valued conferences remain well constructed and healthy.

****************

Now your thoughts and opinions or alternative suggestions for each?

I certainly cannot and would not argue with any of your logic for these various scenarios. I only offer a comment related to Clemson ..... any scenario that results in Clemson being permanently stuck in a non-football centric conference like the ACC would probably result in a solo aria by the "fat lady" for it's football program. Given the likely massive payout disparity between the resulting conferences and the inherent recruiting disadvantages, I would see no way for Clemson to compete at anything other than a mediocre level in football which is unfortunately perfectly fine and acceptable for just about all of the schools in the ACC except for Clemson (and FSU). If it was to reach such a point, Clemson might as well reclassify to FCS - nothing quite like a good football game in Fargo, ND in late November!

I hope for your sake, a great fan base, and you have one, that you and FSU both find a way out.

I also hope the SEC looks no farther than Kansas to the West. We are Southern Football and it wouldn't be the same if FSU and Clemson were MIA.

If the SEC goes West again for expansion, I can only see Kansas and Nebraska as being viable options.

I agree that the prime SEC targets are FSU, Clemson, North Carolina and a Virginia school. Maybe, the SEC also offers Duke to keep the B1G from snatching UNC from the SEC. In that case a 6th spot opens up for the second VA school or whoever is available and offers the highest value. I agree Miami could join the Big Ten and not be concerned.

Here’s an idea: what if Duke and Notre Dame were offered partial memberships to keep UNC-Duke rivalry going and ND football independence? Heck, the SEC might not even care if there is a max or minimum on required games against the Irish. Kansas could be slotted in too.

We agree on the first four. Duke? Okay if we take Kansas to go with them. Perhaps we let Georgia Tech back into the fold if we have a shot at N.D. But I wouldn't offer them a partial. We have recruits, we have 4 states with growing Catholic demographics, Texas, Florida, Georgia, and Louisiana, and we offer as much money as the Big 10 without so many duds on the schedule. And they got a taste of SEC away crowds when Georgia went to South Bend and it opened some eyes in a positive way. If they want in they have a spot anytime but they join in full. It's the only way they benefit us as we benefit them.

With the Florida State AD rambling and generating plenty of chat, will the Seminoles soon formally challenge the ACC’s GoR?

If it happens, who will be their partner in the challenge if there is one? Miami? Clemson? UNC? Notre Dame? Whatever school would need to also have a promise from the SEC or BIG.

Suppose FSU is the only one initially from the ACC? Look at Kansas as #18?

Clemson wants more $$$$, but may not be as determined to leave the ACC compared to FSU.

Would the SEC be interested in BOTH FSU and Miami? The ACC could replace them with UCF and USF. Is a potential deal there workable with the network (ESPN)?

I’m very doubtful any NC and Virginia schools would be “initiators” of an early challenge to the ACC’s GoR.

(02-25-2023 03:37 PM)OdinFrigg Wrote:  With the Florida State AD rambling and generating plenty of chat, will the Seminoles soon formally challenge the ACC’s GoR?

If it happens, who will be their partner in the challenge if there is one? Miami? Clemson? UNC? Notre Dame? Whatever school would need to also have a promise from the SEC or BIG.

Suppose FSU is the only one initially from the ACC? Look at Kansas as #18?

Clemson wants more $$$$, but may not be as determined to leave the ACC compared to FSU.

Would the SEC be interested in BOTH FSU and Miami? The ACC could replace them with UCF and USF. Is a potential deal there workable with the network (ESPN)?

I’m very doubtful any NC and Virginia schools would be “initiators” of an early challenge to the ACC’s GoR.

North Carolina, Clemson, and Clemson speaking for FSU, to the SEC happened 3 days after Texas and Oklahoma announced.

Might I suggest that if Miami was the only interested party with FSU why not take them? That covers all parts of Florida and with the 3 largest viewing audiences for college sports. I'd say if Clemson was interested we could add them with Kansas and get all we could want. At that point if UNC heads Big 10 N.C. State could make them pay if they joined the SEC with Va Tech. That's 22. Ga Tech to keep the Big 10 out of the Deep South and a third Texas school and we're fine. Whoever Texas and A&M could agree upon.

(02-25-2023 03:52 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(02-25-2023 03:37 PM)OdinFrigg Wrote:  With the Florida State AD rambling and generating plenty of chat, will the Seminoles soon formally challenge the ACC’s GoR?

If it happens, who will be their partner in the challenge if there is one? Miami? Clemson? UNC? Notre Dame? Whatever school would need to also have a promise from the SEC or BIG.

Suppose FSU is the only one initially from the ACC? Look at Kansas as #18?

Clemson wants more $$$$, but may not be as determined to leave the ACC compared to FSU.

Would the SEC be interested in BOTH FSU and Miami? The ACC could replace them with UCF and USF. Is a potential deal there workable with the network (ESPN)?

I’m very doubtful any NC and Virginia schools would be “initiators” of an early challenge to the ACC’s GoR.

North Carolina, Clemson, and Clemson speaking for FSU, to the SEC happened 3 days after Texas and Oklahoma announced.

Might I suggest that if Miami was the only interested party with FSU why not take them? That covers all parts of Florida and with the 3 largest viewing audiences for college sports. I'd say if Clemson was interested we could add them with Kansas and get all we could want. At that point if UNC heads Big 10 N.C. State could make them pay if they joined the SEC with Va Tech. That's 22. Ga Tech to keep the Big 10 out of the Deep South and a third Texas school and we're fine. Whoever Texas and A&M could agree upon.

If the SEC could add FSU, Clemson and the “ace jewel” North Carolina, I would just sit and wait to see who comes a knocking for that last golden ticket.

The real question is: how much will it cost an ACC school to leave WITH their TV rights? Exit fee is three years revenue. Then negotiate to get your TV rights back from a 13 year deal. Let’s not forget additional lawsuits that could arise from members that feel they would lose significant revenues from these departure(s).

On second thought, it might be easier to dissolve the ACC. Just need to supposedly find new better homes for 8 schools.

(02-25-2023 06:07 PM)murrdcu Wrote:  

(02-25-2023 03:52 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(02-25-2023 03:37 PM)OdinFrigg Wrote:  With the Florida State AD rambling and generating plenty of chat, will the Seminoles soon formally challenge the ACC’s GoR?

If it happens, who will be their partner in the challenge if there is one? Miami? Clemson? UNC? Notre Dame? Whatever school would need to also have a promise from the SEC or BIG.

Suppose FSU is the only one initially from the ACC? Look at Kansas as #18?

Clemson wants more $$$$, but may not be as determined to leave the ACC compared to FSU.

Would the SEC be interested in BOTH FSU and Miami? The ACC could replace them with UCF and USF. Is a potential deal there workable with the network (ESPN)?

I’m very doubtful any NC and Virginia schools would be “initiators” of an early challenge to the ACC’s GoR.

North Carolina, Clemson, and Clemson speaking for FSU, to the SEC happened 3 days after Texas and Oklahoma announced.

Might I suggest that if Miami was the only interested party with FSU why not take them? That covers all parts of Florida and with the 3 largest viewing audiences for college sports. I'd say if Clemson was interested we could add them with Kansas and get all we could want. At that point if UNC heads Big 10 N.C. State could make them pay if they joined the SEC with Va Tech. That's 22. Ga Tech to keep the Big 10 out of the Deep South and a third Texas school and we're fine. Whoever Texas and A&M could agree upon.

If the SEC could add FSU, Clemson and the “ace jewel” North Carolina, I would just sit and wait to see who comes a knocking for that last golden ticket.

The real question is: how much will it cost an ACC school to leave WITH their TV rights? Exit fee is three years revenue. Then negotiate to get your TV rights back from a 13 year deal. Let’s not forget additional lawsuits that could arise from members that feel they would lose significant revenues from these departure(s).

On second thought, it might be easier to dissolve the ACC. Just need to supposedly find new better homes for 8 schools.

If true, that doesn’t sound difficult.

SEC + Clemson, Florida St, North Carolina, Virginia
XII + Duke, Georgia Tech, Louisville, Miami, North Carolina St, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Virginia Tech

Boston College and Wake Forest go independent in football and join Notre Dame in the Big East.

SEC
East: Clemson, Florida St, North Carolina, South Carolina, Virginia
South: Alabama, Auburn, LSU, Mississippi, Mississippi St
Southeast: Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Tennessee, Vanderbilt
Southwest: Arkansas, Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas A&M

XX
East: Duke, Georgia Tech, Miami, North Carolina St, Virginia Tech
North: Cincinnati, Louisville, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, West Virginia
South: Baylor, Central Florida, Houston, TCU, Texas Tech
West: BYU, Iowa St, Kansas, Kansas St, Oklahoma St

Big East
Boston College, Butler, Connecticut, Creighton, DePaul, Georgetown, Marquette, Notre Dame, Providence, Seton Hall, St. John’s, Villanova, Wake Forest, Xavier

Independent scheduling agreement between Army, Boston College, Connecticut, Massachusetts, Notre Dame, and Wake Forest would facilitate late-season scheduling.

Wake Forest has the smallest undergraduate enrollment among P5 schools. Their alumni base, some of which is affluent, is comparatively small. Grove Stadium (now Truist Field) is nice and cozy, but seating capacity is only 31,500. It is “filled” when a school such as Clemson visits. LJMV Coliseum seat 14,655. Wake does have decent facilities for Olympic-style sports and baseball.

Presently. Wake Forest, arguably, may have the best on-going football program and coach in the State of North Carolina.

Winston-Salem, as a travel location and market, could be valuable to the SEC. However, Wake’s football stadium and fan base, are too small for SEC standards. And Wake hasn’t shown sustained, long-termed success in any prime sport to be seen particularly distinguished.

SEC fb teams are use to playing before crowds of 60,000+. Wake doesn’t fit the size criteria.

Part of the ACC’s problem is a few “haves” and a bunch of “have nots”. The conference’s earlier affinity for selective private schools, shows some growing incompatibility with current big-time trends. Note though, Wake is an ACC charter member.

Lifting schools such as FSU and Clemson out of the ACC appears in order.
Let the ACC survive and replenish, but those several schools that are more appropriate for the SEC and BIG, allow the transitions. This GoR to 2036 is a forced mess with too much unhappiness.

https://godeacs.com/facilities/truist-field/4