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About a month left in the regular season (8 games to go). UC is 5th in the AAC, but they've already played Houston twice, the three non-houston teams above them haven't.

Houston 8-1 (KP projection 16-2)
Temple 8-2 (KP Projection 11-7)
Memphis 7-2 (KP Projection 13-5)
Tulane 7-3 (KP Projection 11-7)
Cincinnati 6-4 (KP Projection 11-7)
Central Florida 4-5 (KP Projection 10-8)
Wichita State 4-5 (KP Projection 8-10)

The rest don't really matter.

A 6-2 finish will likely get UC into the 2/3 game on the opposite side of the bracket from Houston. That's a big deal. 6-2 or better down the stretch should be the goal.

This team is playing well enough to do it. They are up to top 60 kenpom. Barttorvik has them as a top 25 team since December 1. Looking at the roster there are holes, but UC has been overcoming them with their top end talent (Vik, DDJ, and Landers have all be exceptional), really good coaching and well defined roles.

UC has 3, legitimate, could start for most tournament teams, type players (Vik, DDJ, and Landers).

They have backup stretch four who would be a nice heat check 7th man on many tournament teams (JD).

They have a 7th/8th type player...backup swing guard (MAW)

They have two power forwards who might be 8/9th guys on tournament caliber teams but that is probably generous (Ody/Ezikpe)

They have a super talented, not ready yet SG (Skillings).

They have a talented, further away PF/SF (Reed).

They are talented enough at the top, but not deep enough with legitimate tournament caliber starters. But they are playing well to their strengths and hiding their deficiencies by putting those guys in good spots. That's good coaching. Looking forward to these last 8 games to see how they finish. This team is going to be a factor in the Conference Tournament (and that is really their only path short of winning out and making the conference tournament finals).

If we stay on the opposite side of the bracket from Houston, that is our only hope. It gives more teams a chance to upset them and give us a chance if we get in the finals.

If we can get hot I think UC can beat anyone in the conference but Houston.

I posted this on BCJ but 13 wins is the number needed to get to 3rd place. Some projections have Temple and Tulane with 12 or more wins. I don’t want it to get into the tiebreakers so basically winning out or only losing one more provides the best seeding chance. 12-6 is could get the 3 seed but it’s not a lock.

(02-02-2023 09:15 AM)bearcatmark Wrote:  About a month left in the regular season (8 games to go). UC is 5th in the AAC, but they've already played Houston twice, the three non-houston teams above them haven't.

Houston 8-1 (KP projection 16-2)
Temple 8-2 (KP Projection 11-7)
Memphis 7-2 (KP Projection 13-5)
Tulane 7-3 (KP Projection 11-7)
Cincinnati 6-4 (KP Projection 11-7)
Central Florida 4-5 (KP Projection 10-8)
Wichita State 4-5 (KP Projection 8-10)

The rest don't really matter.

A 6-2 finish will likely get UC into the 2/3 game on the opposite side of the bracket from Houston. That's a big deal. 6-2 or better down the stretch should be the goal.

This team is playing well enough to do it. They are up to top 60 kenpom. Barttorvik has them as a top 25 team since December 1. Looking at the roster there are holes, but UC has been overcoming them with their top end talent (Vik, DDJ, and Landers have all be exceptional), really good coaching and well defined roles.

UC has 3, legitimate, could start for most tournament teams, type players (Vik, DDJ, and Landers).

They have backup stretch four who would be a nice heat check 7th man on many tournament teams (JD).

They have a 7th/8th type player...backup swing guard (MAW)

They have two power forwards who might be 8/9th guys on tournament caliber teams but that is probably generous (Ody/Ezikpe)

They have a super talented, not ready yet SG (Skillings).

They have a talented, further away PF/SF (Reed).

They are talented enough at the top, but not deep enough with legitimate tournament caliber starters. But they are playing well to their strengths and hiding their deficiencies by putting those guys in good spots. That's good coaching. Looking forward to these last 8 games to see how they finish. This team is going to be a factor in the Conference Tournament (and that is really their only path short of winning out and making the conference tournament finals).

I am curious how Kenpom has Tulane at 11-7 when they are favored in all but 2 games. They have a few games where they are small favorites like Cincinnati, Temple, and USF.

Basically the next game for UC will tell a huge story. Beat UCF and Tulane and the path to 12 plus league wins becomes clear.

Mark likes to use computers and data points for analysis and that's fine. I like to use the "eye test" in addition to metrics. This team has only shown the ability to beat teams of lesser ability/talent. The last winning streak was three conference games against ECU, SMU and USF. They are a combined 8-22 in conference play. We smoked a Tulsa team last night that is 1-9 in conference play. This team has yet to go out and get a signature win. I agree that Wes has improved his lineup situationally and putting players in better spots/using their strengths. However, isn't that what a coach is supposed to do at minimum? I believe good coaching also includes in-game adjustments and finding ways to grind out a win over a better opponent. Of the four remaining road games three are against Tulane, UCF and Memphis. We also play Temple and UCF at home. IMO, those five games will determine our season. Finishing 6-2 at this point seems a reach. The issue for us is the fact we have four teams above us in the conference standings. That's a lot to overcome together with our remaining schedule. Time will soon tell...

(02-02-2023 10:50 AM)UCGrad1992 Wrote:  Mark likes to use computers and data points for analysis and that's fine. I like to use the "eye test" in addition to metrics. This team has only shown the ability to beat teams of lesser ability/talent. The last winning streak was three conference games against ECU, SMU and USF. They are a combined 8-22 in conference play. We smoked a Tulsa team last night that is 1-9 in conference play. This team has yet to go out and get a signature win. I agree that Wes has improved his lineup situationally and putting players in better spots/using their strengths. However, isn't that what a coach is supposed to do at minimum? I believe good coaching also includes in-game adjustments and finding ways to grind out a win over a better opponent. Of the four remaining road games three are against Tulane, UCF and Memphis. We also play Temple and UCF at home. IMO, those five games will determine our season. Finishing 6-2 at this point seems a reach. The issue for us is the fact we have four teams above us in the conference standings. That's a lot to overcome together with our remaining schedule. Time will soon tell...

Bolded, that alone seems like progress given the poor finishes in Miller's first year and Brannen's last year. Part of the problem is having just too few opportunities in the AAC to go out and grab signature wins. Against Houston, I don't think any of us saw wins. To me, Memphis seemed beatable but there was a clear talent differential on the floor.

As we see in the Big 12 this season, and to a lesser extent in the Big East, when you're playing ranked teams every week, wins all look like signature wins.

(02-02-2023 10:40 AM)UCBearcatlawjd2 Wrote:  I am curious how Kenpom has Tulane at 11-7 when they are favored in all but 2 games. They have a few games where they are small favorites like Cincinnati, Temple, and USF.

Basically the next game for UC will tell a huge story. Beat UCF and Tulane and the path to 12 plus league wins becomes clear.

Because being the "favorite" doesn't mean you will win. If you're a 51% favorite in two games, statistically you're more likely to go 1-1 than any other record (if you're a 75% favorite in 4 games, you're most likely record in those 4 is 3-1). Projections take into account likelihood of winning the game and are more accurate than just counting the games you are favored in as wins and the games you are the underdog in as losses.

(02-02-2023 10:50 AM)UCGrad1992 Wrote:  Mark likes to use computers and data points for analysis and that's fine. I like to use the "eye test" in addition to metrics. This team has only shown the ability to beat teams of lesser ability/talent. The last winning streak was three conference games against ECU, SMU and USF. They are a combined 8-22 in conference play. We smoked a Tulsa team last night that is 1-9 in conference play. This team has yet to go out and get a signature win. I agree that Wes has improved his lineup situationally and putting players in better spots/using their strengths. However, isn't that what a coach is supposed to do at minimum? I believe good coaching also includes in-game adjustments and finding ways to grind out a win over a better opponent. Of the four remaining road games three are against Tulane, UCF and Memphis. We also play Temple and UCF at home. IMO, those five games will determine our season. Finishing 6-2 at this point seems a reach. The issue for us is the fact we have four teams above us in the conference standings. That's a lot to overcome together with our remaining schedule. Time will soon tell...

This isn't an either or proposition. I'm guessing I watch more basketball than the vast majority of posters on this board. I use the "eye test" but also try to back up what I am seeing with information.

I get it. You've become Mr. Negative and will never give Wes a second of credit. It is what it is.

(02-02-2023 11:11 AM)OKIcat Wrote:  

(02-02-2023 10:50 AM)UCGrad1992 Wrote:  Mark likes to use computers and data points for analysis and that's fine. I like to use the "eye test" in addition to metrics. This team has only shown the ability to beat teams of lesser ability/talent. The last winning streak was three conference games against ECU, SMU and USF. They are a combined 8-22 in conference play. We smoked a Tulsa team last night that is 1-9 in conference play. This team has yet to go out and get a signature win. I agree that Wes has improved his lineup situationally and putting players in better spots/using their strengths. However, isn't that what a coach is supposed to do at minimum? I believe good coaching also includes in-game adjustments and finding ways to grind out a win over a better opponent. Of the four remaining road games three are against Tulane, UCF and Memphis. We also play Temple and UCF at home. IMO, those five games will determine our season. Finishing 6-2 at this point seems a reach. The issue for us is the fact we have four teams above us in the conference standings. That's a lot to overcome together with our remaining schedule. Time will soon tell...

Bolded, that alone seems like progress given the poor finishes in Miller's first year and Brannen's last year. Part of the problem is having just too few opportunities in the AAC to go out and grab signature wins. Against Houston, I don't think any of us saw wins. To me, Memphis seemed beatable but there was a clear talent differential on the floor.

As we see in the Big 12 this season, and to a lesser extent in the Big East, when you're playing ranked teams every week, wins all look like signature wins.

This is a great point. UC's played 4 top 100 teams (in 5 games) since December 1st (really when this team started playing good basketball).
They lost by 3 to #23 Xavier
They beat #83 Tulane by 11
They lost by 13 to #1 Houston
They lost to #37 Memphis by 7
They lost to #1 Houston (on the road) by 6

They don't have the breakthrough win. They controlled one of those games. They were never really in the first Houston game. And then they had three close games. A bit unlucky not to get one or two of those, but sometimes dems the breaks.

Just keep playing basketball at the level they are playing and they'll break through if given the opportunity.

I don't have the numbers cause I'm cheap but I feel like a rise from ~90s to 60s is pretty impressive, especially since most of the movement has occurred in the last few weeks. We hit a wall last year and only got worse as the season closed.

(02-02-2023 11:16 AM)bearcatmark Wrote:  

(02-02-2023 10:50 AM)UCGrad1992 Wrote:  Mark likes to use computers and data points for analysis and that's fine. I like to use the "eye test" in addition to metrics. This team has only shown the ability to beat teams of lesser ability/talent. The last winning streak was three conference games against ECU, SMU and USF. They are a combined 8-22 in conference play. We smoked a Tulsa team last night that is 1-9 in conference play. This team has yet to go out and get a signature win. I agree that Wes has improved his lineup situationally and putting players in better spots/using their strengths. However, isn't that what a coach is supposed to do at minimum? I believe good coaching also includes in-game adjustments and finding ways to grind out a win over a better opponent. Of the four remaining road games three are against Tulane, UCF and Memphis. We also play Temple and UCF at home. IMO, those five games will determine our season. Finishing 6-2 at this point seems a reach. The issue for us is the fact we have four teams above us in the conference standings. That's a lot to overcome together with our remaining schedule. Time will soon tell...

This isn't an either or proposition. I'm guessing I watch more basketball than the vast majority of posters on this board. I use the "eye test" but also try to back up what I am seeing with information.

I get it. You've become Mr. Negative and will never give Wes a second of credit. It is what it is.

You post a thread and some of us don't agree to your level and we're "negative." I have given Wes some credit in my post above and at other times - most recently with how the team played on the road against Houston. How about keeping a more open mind Mark that not everyone sees the world as you do? It's not personal. This is a sports message board and I hope that different opinions will be welcomed on here.

(02-02-2023 10:50 AM)UCGrad1992 Wrote:  Mark likes to use computers and data points for analysis and that's fine. I like to use the "eye test" in addition to metrics. This team has only shown the ability to beat teams of lesser ability/talent. The last winning streak was three conference games against ECU, SMU and USF. They are a combined 8-22 in conference play. We smoked a Tulsa team last night that is 1-9 in conference play. This team has yet to go out and get a signature win. I agree that Wes has improved his lineup situationally and putting players in better spots/using their strengths. However, isn't that what a coach is supposed to do at minimum? I believe good coaching also includes in-game adjustments and finding ways to grind out a win over a better opponent. Of the four remaining road games three are against Tulane, UCF and Memphis. We also play Temple and UCF at home. IMO, those five games will determine our season. Finishing 6-2 at this point seems a reach. The issue for us is the fact we have four teams above us in the conference standings. That's a lot to overcome together with our remaining schedule. Time will soon tell...

Honestly it feels like we're close, especially the game @Houston. But we still need to win one of these. We are 1-7 Q1/Q2, Kenpom 59. That has to be the worst Q1/Q2 record for top 100 Kenpom. We're over-beating the scrubs, but haven't broken thru against a good team yet. Memphis was especially disappointing.

(02-02-2023 01:31 PM)bcat1997 Wrote:  

(02-02-2023 10:50 AM)UCGrad1992 Wrote:  Mark likes to use computers and data points for analysis and that's fine. I like to use the "eye test" in addition to metrics. This team has only shown the ability to beat teams of lesser ability/talent. The last winning streak was three conference games against ECU, SMU and USF. They are a combined 8-22 in conference play. We smoked a Tulsa team last night that is 1-9 in conference play. This team has yet to go out and get a signature win. I agree that Wes has improved his lineup situationally and putting players in better spots/using their strengths. However, isn't that what a coach is supposed to do at minimum? I believe good coaching also includes in-game adjustments and finding ways to grind out a win over a better opponent. Of the four remaining road games three are against Tulane, UCF and Memphis. We also play Temple and UCF at home. IMO, those five games will determine our season. Finishing 6-2 at this point seems a reach. The issue for us is the fact we have four teams above us in the conference standings. That's a lot to overcome together with our remaining schedule. Time will soon tell...

Honestly it feels like we're close, especially the game @Houston. But we still need to win one of these. We are 1-7 Q1/Q2, Kenpom 59. That has to be the worst Q1/Q2 record for top 100 Kenpom. We're over-beating the scrubs, but haven't broken thru against a good team yet. Memphis was especially disappointing.

This is my thinking as well. I think both the eye test and the numbers show that this team is playing better over the last month or two than it has over the course of the entire Wes Miller era, which certainly makes it look like the rebuild is going in the right direction.

There's just instances where I'm still waiting for this team to not only find consistency but break through against teams not named Tulsa or ECU. Despite being better at it of late, this team still occasionally sleepwalks out of the gates. Plus, Memphis was a game that Cincinnati could have and arguably should have won, especially at home, but they were constantly playing from behind all game and ultimately lost.

At this point, I'm in the "prove it" mode with this team. They've shown they have the overall talent to at least challenge the top of the AAC, now go out there and prove it on the court against Memphis, UCF, and, hell, Temple and Tulane (again). Once they do that, I'll feel a lot more confident that this program is taking a decisive step forward in year 2 under Wes.

(02-02-2023 01:22 PM)UCGrad1992 Wrote:  You post a thread and some of us don't agree to your level and we're "negative." I have given Wes some credit in my post above and at other times - most recently with how the team played on the road against Houston. How about keeping a more open mind Mark that not everyone sees the world as you do? It's not personal. This is a sports message board and I hope that different opinions will be welcomed on here.

This is always my least favorite response. It's a message board. Of course people disagree. Responding and making additional points isn't "taking it personal". It's keeping the conversation going. I was disagreeing with your assessment, just as you were mine. And yes... your assessments have been universally negative recent. That"s just me observing reality and pointing that out.

Yep. Until this team actually wins against a team with a pulse, I'm in the prove it camp. 1/2 of the AAC is a complete mess.

We play well against cruddy teams. We should. It makes it hard to evaluate when we've played so many bad teams and lost to all the decent ones. Our season signature win is still Tulane on our home court.

(02-02-2023 02:06 PM)cinbinsportsfan Wrote:  

(02-02-2023 01:31 PM)bcat1997 Wrote:  

(02-02-2023 10:50 AM)UCGrad1992 Wrote:  Mark likes to use computers and data points for analysis and that's fine. I like to use the "eye test" in addition to metrics. This team has only shown the ability to beat teams of lesser ability/talent. The last winning streak was three conference games against ECU, SMU and USF. They are a combined 8-22 in conference play. We smoked a Tulsa team last night that is 1-9 in conference play. This team has yet to go out and get a signature win. I agree that Wes has improved his lineup situationally and putting players in better spots/using their strengths. However, isn't that what a coach is supposed to do at minimum? I believe good coaching also includes in-game adjustments and finding ways to grind out a win over a better opponent. Of the four remaining road games three are against Tulane, UCF and Memphis. We also play Temple and UCF at home. IMO, those five games will determine our season. Finishing 6-2 at this point seems a reach. The issue for us is the fact we have four teams above us in the conference standings. That's a lot to overcome together with our remaining schedule. Time will soon tell...

Honestly it feels like we're close, especially the game @Houston. But we still need to win one of these. We are 1-7 Q1/Q2, Kenpom 59. That has to be the worst Q1/Q2 record for top 100 Kenpom. We're over-beating the scrubs, but haven't broken thru against a good team yet. Memphis was especially disappointing.

This is my thinking as well. I think both the eye test and the numbers show that this team is playing better over the last month or two than it has over the course of the entire Wes Miller era, which certainly makes it look like the rebuild is going in the right direction.

There's just instances where I'm still waiting for this team to not only find consistency but break through against teams not named Tulsa or ECU. Despite being better at it of late, this team still occasionally sleepwalks out of the gates. Plus, Memphis was a game that Cincinnati could have and arguably should have won, especially at home, but they were constantly playing from behind all game and ultimately lost.

At this point, I'm in the "prove it" mode with this team. They've shown they have the overall talent to at least challenge the top of the AAC, now go out there and prove it on the court against Memphis, UCF, and, hell, Temple and Tulane (again). Once they do that, I'll feel a lot more confident that this program is taking a decisive step forward in year 2 under Wes.

This bunch is vastly improved from where they were in December......If they had one guy they could throw the ball to in the last three or four minutes of the game and say "OK, go close this thing out for us" we could hang with good teams. Nolley is a good scorer, but he can disappear at winning time. DeJulius can be checked at winning time. This group is a Steve Logan or Jaron Cumberland away from being back to where they need to be....

(02-02-2023 02:39 PM)JUSTGOPLAY Wrote:  This group is a Steve Logan or Jaron Cumberland away from being back to where they need to be....

Love those guys but considering how much of a hole the 4 is for us I'd say more like a Gary Clark or JMax.

(02-02-2023 02:38 PM)rath v2.0 Wrote:  Yep. Until this team actually wins against a team with a pulse, I'm in the prove it camp. 1/2 of the AAC is a complete mess.

We play well against cruddy teams. We should. It makes it hard to evaluate when we've played so many bad teams and lost to all the decent ones. Our season signature win is still Tulane on our home court.

Yep. The time of "moral" victories are over.

How many of you who remember Kenyon Martin as a freshman honestly thought he would develop into the player he did? I have to confess that I didn't. The only shot he could make was a dunk and he couldn't make a free throw standing on a step ladder 2 feet from the basket. But Huggins and his staff worked hard with him and Kenyon worked his ass off and he developed into the national POY.

If Wes and his staff can come close to that kind of success with guys like Skillings, Reed. Griffith, and James, we're back in business. They have done a pretty good job with Vic.

(02-02-2023 03:23 PM)chatcat Wrote:  How many of you who remember Kenyon Martin as a freshman honestly thought he would develop into the player he did? I have to confess that I didn't. The only shot he could make was a dunk and he couldn't make a free throw standing on a step ladder 2 feet from the basket. But Huggins and his staff worked hard with him and Kenyon worked his ass off and he developed into the national POY.

If Wes and his staff can come close to that kind of success with guys like Skillings, Reed. Griffith, and James, we're back in business. They have done a pretty good job with Vic.

Agreed. The development of Vik has been impressive but the staff has also done a great job with MAW and Nolley, who in particular had an excellent offensive game but he's become an even better defender and rebounder. I'd also give credit to Wes not only for his handling of Davenport in the rotation (i.e. bringing him in as a 6th man) but finally getting it through to him that he doesn't need to play hero ball by jacking up a three every time he touches it. JD's finally, FINALLY making extra passes and seems to be making a conscious effort to only shoot the three when he's truly wide open and his feet are set. He's still a headache on defense and will certainly jack up a weird three (it's probably a difficult habit to kick) but I feel like his handling of JD doesn't get talked about enough.